Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Systematic process”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Search for direct CP violation in charged charmless B→PV decays

Measurements of C P asymmetry in charmless B → P V decays are presented, where P and V denote a pseudoscalar and a vector meson, respectively. Five different B → P V decays from four final states, B ± → π ± π + π - , B ± → K ± π + π - , B ± → K ± K + K - and B ± → π ± K + K - are analyzed. The measurements are based on a method that does not require full amplitude analyses, and are performed using proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by LHCb between 2015 and 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.9 fb - 1 . In the π + π - P -wave, in the region dominated by the B ± → ρ ( 770 ) 0 K ± decay, a C P asymmetry of A C P = + 0.150 ± 0.019 ± 0.011 is measured, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. This is the first observation of C P violation in this process. For the other four decay channels, in regions dominated by the B ± → ρ ( 770 ) 0 π ± , B ± → K ( ¯ ) * ( 892 ) 0 π ± , B ± → K ( ¯ ) * ( 892 ) 0 K ± and B ± → Φ ( 1020 ) K ± decays, C P asymmetries in the P -wave compatible with zero are measured.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational Analysis of the Impact of Boundary Conditions on a Particle-Laden Flow: A Case Study in a Pressurized Oxy-Coal Combustor

Designing an effective burner is vital for the development of coal combustion technologies. Because of high pressure, the volumetric fraction of the coal particles in the injected fuel in a pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) burner approaches or even exceeds the limitations allowed by the commercial computational fluid dynamics codes (e.g., Ansys Fluent). Consequently, for such high particle volumetric fractions, the interplay between the particles, the fluid flow, and the burner wall needs to be re-evaluated. The present computational work is a first step in a systematic analysis of the roles of various characteristics involved in the POC process, such as the method of particle release, its location, and the particle size. Specifically, pulverized coal is burned under an elevated pressure of 15 bar in an O 2 /CO 2 environment. A 100 kW, a POC combustor, is modeled with Ansys Fluent using the Reynolds-averaged Navier−Stokes approach. It is revealed that for this pilot-scale, pressurized burner, the gas phase flow velocity in the near-wall region exhibits anomalies. With the major focus on POC, this work aims to eliminate/reduce the impact of high particle loading on the gas-phase flow. To scrutinize the role of particle loading in the near-wall region and eliminate the impact of this velocity on POC downstream, the particle−gas interplay in the boundary layer is investigated by means of the computational simulations incorporating the coupling between the turbulent flow and the particles. It is found that the tuning of the particle release location makes the gas-phase flow velocity in the presence of particles consistent with the pure gas flow velocity profile. The particles size is also found to have a significant impact on the particle trajectory.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) causes concrete degradation, leading to cracking, rebar corrosion, and reduced structural integrity, which raises safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) effectively assesses concrete properties and monitors ASR progression. However, its deployment and analysis require specialized expertise and subjective interpretation. As computational power increases, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being used to automate NDE data analysis across various industries for AI-assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are adapting to this technological shift, prompting a need to evaluate current ML technologies’ capabilities and limitations in assessing concrete material properties and damage. This report presents a comparative analysis of four ML regression models for predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR expansion using long-term ultrasonic data monitoring. The models investigated include linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), shallow neural networks (NN), and deep neural networks (DNN). LR, SVR, and shallow NN models use features extracted from ultrasonic signals, whereas the DNN model processes time-domain ultrasonic signals and frequency spectra directly. The study systematically compared the models’ performance from various perspectives, including model input, prediction performance, and generalization ability. The findings indicate significant variability in model performance, with some ML algorithms achieving very high or very low prediction accuracy depending on the preprocessing and feature engineering (extraction and selection) applied. Key insights include the observation that shallow ML models (LR, SVR, and shallow NNs) require meticulous preprocessing and feature extraction to achieve high accuracy. In contrast, the DNN model, although it bypasses the need for feature engineering, necessitates extensive preprocessing to mitigate noise and computational demands. The SVR model emerged as the top performer among the shallow models, and the DNN model exhibited superior performance on specific datasets but struggled with generalization across specimens from different batches. Additionally, the SVR model is sensitive to temperature variations, whereas the DNN model is robust in this regard. Using recurrent neural networks is recommended for future ASR expansion prediction studies. Recurrent neural networks’ inherent ability to capture temporal dependencies and long-term patterns makes them well suited for analyzing sequential ultrasonic monitoring data. Overall, the results and conclusions of this study could provide insights into the capabilities and effectiveness of ML when applied to ultrasonic NDE data and help identify best practices for using ML for ultrasonic NDE of concrete material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase-field modeling for restructuring in the dark zone of high burnup UO 2

This report summarizes the mesoscale modeling work performed in fiscal year 2024 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to capture the microstructural evolution and restructuring observed in the dark regions of high burnup UO 2 nuclear fuel. This is the first attempt to realistically simulate the restructuring behavior observed in different region of a high burnup fuel. We employ a grand-potential based phase-field model to concurrently evaluate the formation of subgrains and growth of fission bubbles within the fuel. A energy-based subgrain formation criteria is introduced to simulate the restructuring process. Effect of different initial conditions and different modeling parameters are studies systematically to capture how each of these parameters influence the characteristics of the restructured fuel. It is observed that the subgrain formation begins around existing fission gas bubbles and then proceeds towards triple junctions, grain boundaries and grain interiors. It is demonstrated that restructuring is influenced by a combination of initial dislocation densities, subgrain formation rate, and temperature. Rate of restructuring increases with increase in fuel temperature. A restructuring bias is observed within the microstructure due to variation in defect accumulation among different grains. Furthermore, bubble sizes and distribution does not have a significant effect on rate of restructuring. The predicted microstructures resembles the characteristics of the restructured regions as observed in experiments. Finally, a correlation is presented that demonstrates the evolution of the restructuring volume fraction as a function of local effective burnup. This work provides a first of its kind restructuring model for darkzone that can be used by BISON for performance prediction of high burnup UO 2 fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of muon antineutrino charged current - 0 meson scattering, using the NOvA Near Detector

Antineutrino interaction cross sections are, at present, poorly constrained, particularly regarding the role of multi-nucleon processes such as 2-particle 2-hole (2p2h) interactions. The associated crosssection systematic uncertainties represent a significant challenge for precision oscillation measurements, especially for the next generation of neutrino experiments such as DUNE. We present a new measurement of the muon antineutrino charged-current cross section without mesons in the final state, using the high-statistics data set of the NOvA Near Detector. The analysis employs a cut-based selection enhanced by machine learning techniques to isolate a high-purity sample dominated by quasielastic (QE) and 2p2h interactions. We present the cross section as a function of the kinetic energy and scattering angle of the outgoing muon. We also present measurements of more model-dependent kinematic variables such as the neutrino energy and momentum transfer, to better probe the underlying nuclear physics. The results are compared against various neutrino event generators to test the robustness of current interaction models.

Vockerodt, Kevin John [Ohio State U.; Queen Mary, ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling of a Four-Stage Linear Ionization Cooling Channel for a Muon Collider in g4Beamline

A previous study of an eight-stage rectilinear ionization cooling channel in the ICOOL software demonstrated a five-order-of-magnitude reduction in a muon beam’s 6D emittance. In this study, we look to compare the ways ICOOL and Muons, Inc.’s g4Beamline software model ionization cooling by comparing their modeling of the first four stages of this optimized cooling channel constructed in ICOOL. We begin by identifying the parameters used to construct the optimized ionization cooling channel in ICOOL. We then reconstruct this beam in g4Beamline with identical parameter specifications and simulate the cooling of an identical input beam. Finally, we compare the two simulations based on their beam transmission, longitudinal emittance, and transverse emittance along the channel length. Through this process, we demonstrate that G4Beamline accurately reproduces transverse cooling results but predicts systematically different longitudinal emittance evolution while maintaining similar overall cooling performance, reproducing a 97.9% reduction in 6D emittance over four stages.

Keeler, Dominic [Purdue U., West Lafayette] (ORCID↗
DOE OSTI2026

What Is Data Analysis?

A quick guide to understand your data and use it to tell compelling stories. Data analysis helps develop insights for research projects, planning interventions, or systematic information gathering. This guide highlights important aspects of the data analysis process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling of a Four-Stage Linear Ionization Cooling Channel for a Muon Collider in G4Beamline

A previous study of an eight-stage rectilinear ionization cooling channel in the ICOOL software demonstrated a five-order-of-magnitude reduction in a muon beam’s 6D emittance. In this study, we look to compare the ways ICOOL and Muons, Inc.’s g4Beamline software model ionization cooling by comparing their modeling of the first four stages to this optimized cooling channel constructed in ICOOL. We begin by identifying the parameters used to construct the optimized ionization cooling channel in ICOOL. We then reconstruct this beam in g4Beamline with identical parameter specifications and simulate the cooling of an identical input beam. Finally, we compare the two simulations based on their beam transmission, longitudinal emittance, and transverse emittance along the channel length. Through this process, we demonstrate that G4Beamline accurately reproduces transverse cooling results but predicts systematically different longitudinal emittance evolution while maintaining similar overall cooling performance, reproducing a 97.9% reduction in 6D emittance over four stages.

Keeler, Dominic [Purdue U., West Lafayette] (ORCID↗
DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge Graph for End-to-End Traceability of an Integrated Human-Earth System Model

Integrated human-Earth system models inform energy-water-land system dynamics and policies, yet their results are difficult to trace through input-data, model structure, scenario configurations, and solved outputs. Because this information is siloed across disconnected artifacts, process-based IAMs have historically lacked a unified, queryable representation. Such lack of traceability prevents researchers from systematically isolating the multi-sector drivers of complex outcomes (such as tracing water-scarcity results back to distant energy-system dynamics) or conducting holistic uncertainty attribution across hundreds of interacting parameters. To address this concern, our work documents the software engineering process of a knowledge graph that unifies these four layers for the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA_Reference scenario, GCAM v9.1). The graph was built as a relational property graph in DuckDB from the run’s own artifacts: the input-preparation dependency map (gcamdata chunk map), the model’s XML input files, the run configuration, and the results database (BaseX), successfully mapping the model’s declared structure. The resulting graph comprises 204,321 nodes and 1,687,814 edges across 16 node types and 15 edge types, with approximately 16.3 million time-series values stored separately to maintain structural efficiency. To ensure representation fidelity, every edge carries an epistemic-status annotation recording the warrant for the relationship (structural, provenance, dependency, or model-derived), and a machine-readable provenance ledger classifying the origin of every schema element. Evaluation against a fixed five-benchmark suite with locked baselines reports zero structural orphans, zero dangling edge endpoints, and 100% of output-producing technologies traceable to raw input files. Two interactive interfaces present the graph, including a serverless browser application built on DuckDB-Wasm. By establishing the first end-to-end provenance framework for an IAM, this work enables researchers and scientists to systematically audit complex policy scenarios, debug model structures, and trace policy-relevant outputs to their data origins in real time.

Artifical Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamic control on the decomposition of organic matter across different electron acceptors

The increasing availability of high-resolution characterization of natural organic matter (OM) data has shifted the paradigm of lumped descriptions of OM components and potential microbial activities. Our recent development of a substrate-explicit thermodynamic model uniquely enables incorporating complex OM pools to formulate biogeochemical reaction models based on their elemental compositions. While this previous work facilitates prediction of aerobic respiration of complex OM, it is equally imperative to consider the role of non-oxygenic electron acceptors in regulating OM turnover and the fate of carbon. In this study, we significantly expand our previous model by flexibly incorporating both detailed OM chemistry and electron acceptors other than oxygen. Here, our modeling analysis has revealed substantial variations in the energy status of OM molecules across different soils, which drive the co-occurrence of different electron-accepting processes. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed model using a consistency check with experimental data. Through systematic evaluation of the impact of diverse chemical inputs (both electron donors and acceptors) on OM decomposition, the new model also revealed how key microbial growth parameters such as carbon use efficiency (CUE) and reaction rates vary across different electron-accepting processes. Our model provides a unified framework integrating thermodynamic and kinetic constraints on microbial metabolic activities. It complements traditional kinetic models, which are often designed solely to capture mass fluxes. We conclude that thermodynamic modeling emerges as a powerful tool for describing the mechanisms underlying the interplay between microbial growth and OM chemistry and cycling across different electron acceptors, enhancing our ability to project complex ecosystem behaviors in dynamic environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive anomaly detection for identifying attacks in cyber-physical systems: A systematic literature review

Modern cyberattacks in cyber-physical systems (CPS) rapidly evolve and cannot be deterred effectively with most current methods, which focus on characterizing past threats. Adaptive anomaly detection (AAD) is among the most promising techniques to detect evolving cyberattacks, with an emphasis on fast data processing and model adaptation. AAD has been researched extensively; however, to the best of our knowledge, our work is the first systematic literature review (SLR) on current research in this field. We present a comprehensive SLR, gathering 397 relevant papers and systematically analyzing 65 of them (47 research and 18 survey papers) on AAD in CPS from 2013 to November 2023. We introduce a novel taxonomy considering attack types, CPS application, learning paradigm, data management, and algorithms. Our findings show that most studies addressed either model adaptation or data processing, but rarely both simultaneously. This indicates a research gap in fully adaptive solutions. We also categorize algorithms, datasets, and attack characteristics, and summarize strengths and weaknesses across the literature. Our review provides a structured and accessible reference for researchers and practitioners, offering insights into key trends and highlighting limitations in current approaches. Finally, we outline several future research directions, including the need for integrated real-time processing and adaptive learning, explainability, and uncertainty quantification in AAD for CPS.

Adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Effect of Interlayer Delay on the Heat Accumulation, Microstructures, and Properties in Laser Hot Wire Directed Energy Deposition of Ti-6Al-4V Single-Wall

Laser hot wire directed energy deposition (LHW-DED) is a layer-by-layer additive manufacturing technique that permits the fabrication of large-scale Ti-6Al-4V (Ti64) components with a high deposition rate and has gained traction in the aerospace sector in recent years. However, one of the major challenges in LHW-DED Ti64 is heat accumulation, which affects the part quality, microstructure, and properties of as-built specimens. These issues require a comprehensive understanding of the layerwise heat-accumulation-driven process–structure–property relationship in as-deposited samples. In this study, a systematic investigation was performed by fabricating three Ti-6Al-4V single-wall specimens with distinct interlayer delays, i.e., 0, 120, and 300 s. The real-time acquisition of high-fidelity thermal data and high-resolution melt pool images were utilized to demonstrate a direct correlation between layerwise heat accumulation and melt pool dimensions. The results revealed that the maximum heat buildup temperature of the topmost layer decreased from 660 °C to 263 °C with an increase to a 300 s interlayer delay, allowing for better control of the melt pool dimensions, which then resulted in improved part accuracy. Furthermore, the investigation of the location-specific composition, microstructure, and mechanical properties demonstrated that heat buildup resulted in the coarsening of microstructures and, consequently, the reduction of micro-hardness with increasing height. Extending the delay by 120 s resulted in a 5% improvement in the mechanical properties, including an increase in the yield strength from 817 MPa to 859 MPa and the ultimate tensile strength from 914 MPa to 959 MPa. Cooling rates estimated at 900 °C using a one-dimensional thermal model based on a numerical method allowed us to establish the process–structure–property relationship for the wall specimens. The study provides deeper insight into the effect of heat buildup in LHW-DED and serves as a guide for tailoring the properties of as-deposited specimens by regulating interlayer delay.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

RTN-117: Image Calibration and Instrument Signal Removal for the First Year of the LSST

The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) requires calibration products that provide uniform, stable, and accurate photometric and astrometric performance across the 3.2 gigapixel focal plane and throughout the 10-year survey. This paper details the algorithms and workflows used to produce instrument calibrations and remove instrumental artifacts for Data Preview 2 (DP2)---the first end-to-end processing demonstration using on-sky data with the LSST Camera (LSSTCam). We describe the verification, acceptance, and certification framework used to assess calibration quality and quantify residual systematics. We show baseline metrics on calibrated science images to evaluate the robustness of the calibration and instrument signature removal (ISR) data processing pipelines for DP2. Finally, we summarize the known limitations observed in DP2 production and outline expected algorithmic improvements for the first public LSST data release (Data Release~1, DR1).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing data change in scientific datasets

Summary Scientific datasets are growing rapidly and becoming critical to next‐generation scientific discoveries. The validity of scientific results relies on the quality of data used and data are often subject to change, for example, due to observation additions, quality assessments, or processing software updates. The effects of data change are not well understood and difficult to predict. Datasets are often repeatedly updated and recomputing derived data products quickly becomes time consuming and resource intensive and may in some cases not even be necessary, thus delaying scientific advance. Despite its importance, there is a lack of systematic approaches for best comparing data versions to quantify the changes, and ad‐hoc or manual processes are commonly used. In this article, we propose a novel hierarchical approach for analyzing data changes, including real‐time (online) and offline analyses. We employ a variety of fast‐to‐compute numerical analyses, graphical data change representations, and more resource‐intensive recomputations of a subset of the data product. We illustrate the application of our approach using three scientific diverse use cases, namely, satellite, cosmological, and x‐ray data. The results show that a variety of data change metrics should be employed to enable a comprehensive representation and qualitative evaluation of data changes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Crystallographic Insight of Reduced Lattice Volume Expansion in Mesoporous Cu 2+ -Doped TiNb 2 O 7 Microspheres during Li + Insertion

TiNb 2 O 7 represents a promising anode material for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), but its practical applications are currently hampered by the non-negligible volumetric expansion and contraction during the charge/discharge process and the sluggish ion/electron kinetics. Here a combination technique is reported by systematically optimizing the porous and spherical morphology, crystal structure, and surface decoration of mesoporous Cu 2+ -doped TiNb 2 O 7 microspheres to enhance the electrochemical Li + storage performance and stability simultaneously. The Cu 2+ dopants preferentially replace Ti 4+ in crystal lattices, which decreases the Li + diffusion barrier and increases the electronic conductivity, as confirmed by density functional theory (DFT) calculation and demonstrated by diverse electrochemical characterizations. The successful Cu 2+ doping significantly reduces the lattice expansion coefficient from 7.26% to 4.61% after Li + insertion along the b-axis of TiNb 2 O 7 , as visualized from in situ and ex situ XRD analysis. The optimal 5% Cu 2+ -doped TiNb 2 O 7 with surface coating of N-doped carbon exhibits significantly enhanced specific capacity and rate and cyclic performances in both half- and full-cell configurations, demonstrating an excellent electrochemical behavior for fast-charging LIB applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Barium stars as tracers of s -process nucleosynthesis in AGB stars

Barium (Ba) stars help to verify asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star nucleosynthesis models since they experienced pollution from an AGB binary companion and thus their spectra carry the signatures of the slow neutron capture process (s process). For a large number (180) of Ba stars, we searched for AGB stellar models that match the observed abundance patterns. We aim to uncover any systematic deviations of the sample abundances from the predictions of the nucleosynthesis models. We employed three machine learning algorithms as classifiers: a Random Forest method, developed for this work, and the two classifiers used in our previous study. Compared to that work, we also expanded our observational sample with 11 Ba stars available in the supersolar metallicity range. We studied the statistical behaviour of the different s-process elements in the observational sample to investigate if the AGB models systematically under- or overpredict the abundances observed in the Ba stars and show the results in the form of violin plots of the residuals between spectroscopic abundances and model predictions. We inspected the correlations between the observed [Fe/H], the s-process elemental abundances, and the residuals. We employed the [Zr/Fe] and [Nb/Fe] abundances as a thermometer to constrain the operational temperature that rules the production of these elements in the sample stars, assuming a steady-state s process. We also investigated the mass distribution of the identified polluter AGB stars and the behaviour of the δ parameter, which describes the fraction of accreted AGB material relative to the Ba star envelope. We find a significant trend in the residuals that implies an underproduction of the elements just after the first s-process peak (Nb, Mo, and Ru) in the models relative to the observations. This may originate from a neutron-capture process (e.g. the intermediate neutron-capture process, i process) not yet included in the AGB models of metallicity from solar to roughly 1/5 solar, corresponding to the range of the Ba stars. Correlations are found between the residuals of these peculiar elements, suggesting a common origin for the deviations from the models. In addition, there is a weak metallicity dependence of the residuals of these elements. The s-process temperatures derived with the [Zr/Fe] – [Nb/Fe] thermometer have an unrealistic value for the majority of our stars. The most likely explanation is that at least a fraction of these elements are not produced in a steady-state s process, and instead may be due to processes not included in the AGB models. The mass distribution of the identified models confirms that our sample of Ba stars was polluted by low-mass AGB stars (< 4 M ⊙ ). Most of the matching AGB models require low accreted mass, but a few systems with high accreted mass are needed to explain the observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Coupled Processes in Fractures and the Bordering Matrix via a Micro‐Continuum Reactive Transport Model

Abstract In multi‐mineral fractured rocks, the altered porous layer on the fracture surface resulting from preferential dissolution of the fast‐reacting minerals can have profound impacts on subsequent chemical‐physical alteration of the fractures. This study adopts the micro‐continuum approach to provide further understanding of reactive transport processes in the altered layer (AL), and mass exchanges with the bordering matrix and fracture. The modeling framework couples the Darcy‐Brinkman‐Stokes (DBS) solver in COMSOL Multiphysics and the geochemical modeling capability of CrunchFlow. Three‐dimensional steady state simulations with systematically varied chemical‐physical parameters of the AL were performed to examine the impacts of individual factors and processes. Our simulation results confirm previous observations that dissolution of the fast‐reacting mineral (i.e., calcite) is largely controlled by diffusion across the AL. We also show that dissolution of the slow‐reacting mineral (i.e., dolomite), which controls AL development and fracture enlargement, increases with surface area and has a complex dependence on different local rate‐limiting processes. In particular, advection can result in evident spatial variations in the local dissolution rates of dolomite, although it does not affect the bulk chemistry significantly. The difference in the spatial patterns between simulations with and without advection in the AL is more noticeable in the locations with smaller apertures, with up to 20% difference in local reaction rates. Therefore, it is important to include a full depiction of advection, diffusion, and reactions for accurately capturing local dynamics that control long‐term fracture evolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation

In the tropical stratosphere, deep layers of eastward and westward winds encircle the globe and descend regularly from the upper stratosphere to the tropical tropopause. With a complete cycle typically lasting almost 2.5 years, this quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is arguably the most predictable mode of atmospheric variability that is not linked to the changing seasons. Here, the QBO affects climate phenomena outside the tropical stratosphere, including ozone transport, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and its high predictability could enable better forecasts of these phenomena if models can accurately represent the coupling processes. Climate and forecasting models are increasingly able to simulate stratospheric oscillations resembling the QBO, but exhibit common systematic errors such as weak amplitude in the lowermost tropical stratosphere. Uncertainties about the waves that force the oscillation, particularly the momentum fluxes from small-scale gravity waves excited by deep convection, make its simulation challenging. Improved representation of the processes governing the QBO is expected to lead to better forecasts of the oscillation and its impacts, increased understanding of unusual events such as the two QBO disruptions observed since 2016, and more reliable future projections of QBO behaviour under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗