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DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning methods for weather forecasting

SAND2025-14466O This repository contains code for developing, training, and evaluating machine learning models for weather and climate forecasting, including forecast skill assessment, feature importance analysis, and reproducible workflows for model comparison. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Holthuijzen, Maike [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA),↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leverage modern artificial intelligence (AI) enabled systems for waste reduction

Manufacturing industries continue to face challenges in reducing waste, as upstream strategies such as source reduction and product redesign require a deeper understanding of processes compared to conventional recycling methods. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have opened new opportunities to integrate modern computational techniques with traditional waste minimization strategies. This paper explores AI-enabled approaches for product redesign, source reduction, and recycling that can significantly reduce waste generation while improving efficiency and sustainability. AI-driven material substitution and lightweighting in product design enable discovery of novel materials with optimized properties, reducing waste without compromising performance. Reinforcement learning models optimize process parameters, raw material specifications, and machine sequencing to minimize production losses, while Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) systems paired with AI analytics enhance real-time waste tracking, predictive maintenance, and quality inspection. Furthermore, AI-based demand forecasting and production planning reduce overproduction and excess inventory, as demonstrated in industrial applications. In recycling, ML-powered pattern recognition and robotic sorting technologies achieve higher accuracy in waste segregation, directly improving recycling efficiency. Complementary solutions such as smart bins and AI-enabled waste pickup scheduling optimize collection logistics, reducing both costs and emissions. Although implementation requires upfront investment in infrastructure and training, the long-term benefits include higher material efficiency, reduced waste, improved product quality, and stronger sustainability outcomes across the supply chain. By leveraging AI-enabled systems, manufacturers can align waste minimization efforts with circular economy principles, creating scalable solutions for both industry and society.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1976

Benefit assessment of NASA space technology goals

The socio-economic benefits to be derived from system applications of space technology goals developed by NASA were assessed. Specific studies include: electronic mail; personal telephone communications; weather and climate monitoring, prediction, and control; crop production forecasting and water availability; planetary engineering of the planet Venus; and planetary exploration.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1981

Users manual for the US baseline corn and soybean segment classification procedure

A user's manual for the classification component of the FY-81 U.S. Corn and Soybean Pilot Experiment in the Foreign Commodity Production Forecasting Project of AgRISTARS is presented. This experiment is one of several major experiments in AgRISTARS designed to measure and advance the remote sensing technologies for cropland inventory. The classification procedure discussed is designed to produce segment proportion estimates for corn and soybeans in the U.S. Corn Belt (Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois) using LANDSAT data. The estimates are produced by an integrated Analyst/Machine procedure. The Analyst selects acquisitions, participates in stratification, and assigns crop labels to selected samples. In concert with the Analyst, the machine digitally preprocesses LANDSAT data to remove external effects, stratifies the data into field like units and into spectrally similar groups, statistically samples the data for Analyst labeling, and combines the labeled samples into a final estimate.

Horvath, R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

NASA Annual HSR Workshop: Boeing HSCT program summary

Boeing's view of the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) is given in viewgraph format. Boeing believes that the forecast for long range scheduled international traffic is sufficiently large in the post year 2005 time period to support a fleet of HSCT's. Technologies are projected to be available to create an HSCT that will have the required performance and operating economics, and which can be sold at a price that will provide a reasonable return to Boeing and the airlines. With relatively modest surcharges over competing subsonic fares, it is expected that an HSCT providing roughly a 50 percent time savings would capture a significant market share.

Henderson, Michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica, composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico, make up only a small fraction of the world's land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet's biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica's biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica - composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico - make up only a small fraction of the world s land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet s biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica s biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, Daniel E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Research and Technology Challenges for Human Data Analysts in Future Safety Management Systems

Enabling new and novel concepts of operations for Advanced Air Mobility poses an important need to evolve current safety management systems (SMS) and is posited to be realized through advances in Machine Learning (ML) Data Sciences and Artificial Intelligence. The “In-time Aviation Safety Management System” (IASMS) concept of operations supports the need to evolve today’s SMS to become more tailorable, scalable, and interoperable in response to forecasted changes expected for the future airspace system. Key to IASMS is integration of proactive and predictive ML algorithms trained to provide “in time” detection and mitigation of hazards and emergent risks through new methods and novel data types. IASMS research and technology development includes human factors design considerations for these systems to include human-system teaming, innovations in human interfaces and management of complex digital data information, human-system interaction/model-based system engineering, and verification and validation for data assurance and trust.

Chad L Stephens↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT)

ESA and NASA have both started programs to design and develop Digital Twins of the Earth and/or Earth systems. Organized around interconnected, multi-domain, high-scale modeling capabilities, the three major components of an Earth System Digital Twin are a continuously updated Digital Replica of the Earth System of interest, dynamic Forecasting models, and Impact Assessment capabilities. Earth System Digital Twins integrate diverse Earth and human activity models, continuous observations, and information system capabilities to provide unified, comprehensive representations and predictions that can be utilized for monitoring the health of the Planet, as well as for developing actionable information to support decision making. More generally, Digital Twins will help researchers better understand the fundamental Earth systems that impact everything from wildfires to climate change. This Townhall will first provide a short description of ESA’s, NASA’s and CNES’s current efforts in Digital Twins: • Destination Earth (DestinE) is the first initiative of the European Union to create a Digital Twin of the Earth, particularly focused on weather and climate, and as a coordinated effort between the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ESA and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). • Additionally, ESA is developing several Digital Twin Earth Precursor Activities to study some of the key scientific and technical challenges associated with building a “Digital Twin Earth”. These include forests, hydrology, Antarctica, food systems, oceans, and climate hot spots Digital Twin prototypes. • NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO)’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has started an initiative in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT), with 14 current projects in this area, developing various information systems technologies and prototypes that will help prepare the development of future NASA Digital Twins. • CNES is currently developing the concept of a Digital Twin Factory (DTF), which relies on a data lake, a high computing capability using clouds and/or HPC and has thematic algorithms and methodologies able to generate registered and coherent layers of information in order to enrich a datacube from which physical indicators can be computed spatially. NASA, ESA and CNES are also currently defining science use cases that will be presented during the townhall; those and a few short discussions of current projects will serve as a starting point to engage a dialogue about Digital Twins of the Earth with the IGARSS community.

earth science remote sensing; Information systems↗

NASA NTRS1984

Rural land mobile radio market assessment and satellite and terrestrial system concepts

Market potential exists; the nature of the market in terms of service needs, usage characteristics, service requirements, and forecasting the demand to the year 2000; alternative system cncepts that show promise in addressing the identified needs, in a cost effective manner; and advanced technology requirements associated with these concepts are considered.

Stevenson, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Design definition of the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS), phase 2. Volume 2: Final report

Lockheed personnel, along with team member subcontractors and consultants, have performed a preliminary design for the LAWS Instrument. Breadboarding and testing of a LAWS class laser have also been performed. These efforts have demonstrated that LAWS is a feasible Instrument and can be developed with existing state-of-the-art technology. Only a commitment to fund the instrument development and deployment is required to place LAWS in orbit and obtain the anticipated science and operational forecasting benefits. The LAWS Science Team was selected in 1988-89 as were the competing LAWS phase 1/2 contractor teams. The LAWS Science Team developed requirements for the LAWS Instrument, and the NASA/LAWS project office defined launch vehicle and platform design constraints. From these requirements and constraints, the lockheed team developed LAWS Instrument concepts and configurations. A system designed to meet these requirements and constraints is outlined. The LAWS primary subsystem and interfaces - laser, optical, and receiver/processor - required to assemble a lidar are identified. Also identified are the support subsystems required for the lidar to function from space: structures and mechanical, thermal, electrical, and command and data management. The Lockheed team has developed a preliminary design of a LAWS Instrument System consisting of these subsystems and interfaces which will meet the requirements and objectives of the Science Team. This final report provides a summary of the systems engineering analyses and trades of the LAWS. Summaries of the configuration, preliminary designs of the subsystems, testing recommendations, and performance analysis are presented. Environmental considerations associated with deployment of LAWS are discussed. Finally, the successful LAWS laser breadboard effort is discussed along with the requirements and test results.

Wilson, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Predicting the impacts of new technology aircraft on international air transportation demand

International air transportation to and from the United States was analyzed. Long term and short term effects and causes of travel are described. The applicability of econometric methods to forecast passenger travel is discussed. A nomograph is developed which shows the interaction of economic growth, airline yields, and quality of service in producing international traffic.

Ausrotas, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

AgRISTARS: Foreign commodity production forecasting. Country summary report, Australia

Australia is one of the world's major growers and exporters of wheat and as such is one of the countries of interest in the AgRISTARS program which endeavors to develop technology to estimate crop production using aerospace remote sensing. A compilation of geographic, political, and agricultural information on Australia is presented. Also included is a summary of the aerospace remote sensing, meteorological, and ground-observed data which were collected with respect to Australia, as well as a summary of contacts between AgRISTARS and Australia personnel.

Henninger, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Spatial Information Technology Center at Fulton-Montgomery Community College

The Spatial Information Technology Center (SITC) at Fulton-Montgomery Community College (FMCC) continued to fulfill its mission and charter by successfully completing its third year of operations under Congressional funding and NASA sponsorship. Third year operations (01 Oct 02 - 30 Sep 03) have been funded and conducted utilizing two authorized Research Grants NAG 13-00043 (via a one-year no-cost extension expiring Sep 03) and NAG 13-02053 (one-year no-cost extension expiring Sep 04). Drawdowns and reporting of fiscal activities for SlTC operations continues to pass through the Institute for the Application of Geo-spatial Technology (IAGT) at Cayuga Community College in Auburn, New York. Fiscal activity of the Center is reported quarterly via SF 272 to IAGT, thus this report contains only a budgetary overview and forecast of future expenditures for the remaining funds of NAG 13 - 02053. Funds from NAG 13 - 00043 were exhausted during the fourth quarter of fiscal year FY02 - 03, which necessitated initial draw down of NAG 13 - 02053. The IAGT receives no compensation for administrative costs as authorized and approved by NASA in each award budget. This report also includes the necessary addendums for each NAG award, as required by federal guidelines, though no reportable activities took place within this report period. Attached are the signed Report of New Technology/lnventions and a Final Property Report identifying qualifying equipment purchased by the Center. As an academic, economic and workforce development oriented program, the Center has made significant strides in bringing the technology, knowledge and applications of the spatial information technology field to the region it serves. Through the mission of the Center, the region's educational, economic development and work force communities have become increasingly educated to the benefits of spatial (Geospatial) technology, particularly in the region's K-12 arena. SlTC continues to positively affect the region's education, employment and economic development, while expanding its services and operations designed to be customer driven, growing infrastructure and affecting systemic change.

Flinton, Michael E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Assimilating All-Sky Microwave Radiance Data to Improve NASA GEOS Forecasts and Analysis

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has been pursuing efforts to utilize all-sky (clear+cloudy+precipitating) MW radiance data and has developed a system to assimilate all-sky GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiance data in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) during the last PMM funding period. The system provides additional constraints on the analysis process near the storm regions and adjusts the geophysical parameters such as precipitation, cloud, moisture, surface pressure, and wind by combining information from GMI radiance measurements and model forecasts in an optimal manner. The system proved that assimilating the GMI all-sky radiance data improve the GEOS atmospheric analyses and forecasts. This all-sky data framework has been included in the GEOS Forward Processing (FP) system since July 11, 2018 and assimilates all-sky GMI data in real-time for GEOS global analysis and forecast production at the GMAO. We are currently extending this all-sky GMI radiance data assimilation system to assimilate more all-sky MW radiance data from other sensors such as the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), and the Sounder for Atmospheric Profiling of Humidity in the Intertropics by Radiometery (SAPHIR) onboard the GPM constellation spacecrafts. Preliminary results from this extended all-sky system show increased benefit from cloud- and precipitation-affected MW radiances with much larger spatial and temporal coverages compared to the all-sky system assimilating GMI alone and improved GEOS forecast skills especially for lower tropospheric humidity fields.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗

NASA NTRS2019

NOAA-20 ATMS Status: ATMS SDR Team

Data quality looks better than Suomi-NPP (Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership): similar biases. Smaller standard deviation of first guess departures and diagnosed observation errors. Weaker striping signal than Suomi-NPP ATMS (Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder). Improved first guess fits to: temperature observations (AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A), CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder), GPSRO (Global Positioning System Radio Occultation)); Humidity observations (MHS (Microwave Humidity Sounder), GEO CSRs (Geostationary Orbit Clear Sky Radiances)). Indicates improved accuracy of short range temperature and humidity forecasts. Neutral to slightly positive forecast scores.

Sensor Data Record (SDR)↗