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NASA NTRS2014

Role of Tropical Atlantic SST Variability as a Modulator of El Nino Teleconnections

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).

Teleconnection↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Response of Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO in Observations and a Chemistry-Climate Simulation

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-l anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show targeted comparisons with observations from NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) to provide insight into the vertical structure of ozone changes. The tropospheric ozone response to ENSO could be a useful chemistry-climate model evaluation tool and should be considered in future modeling assessments.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and detail their impact on estimates of how ENSO events perturb the tropical rainfall. We will place these results in perspective by considering requirements for precipitation accuracy for global climate variability and change studies involving ENSO, monsoon dynamics and variations, and climate model improvement and validation. The discussion will conclude with an assessment of the implications of these findings for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) requirements.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Secondary Forests from Agricultural Abandonment in Amazonia 2000-2009

Ongoing negotiations to include reducing emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) in a post-Kyoto climate agreement highlight the critical role of satellite data for accurate and transparent accounting of forest cover changes. In addition to deforestation and degradation, knowledge of secondary forest dynamics is essential for full carbon accounting under REDD+. Land abandonment to secondary forests also frames one of the key tradeoffs for agricultural production in tropical forest countries-whether to incentivize secondary forest growth (for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation) or low-carbon expansion of agriculture or biofuels production in areas of secondary forests. We examined patterns of land abandonment to secondary forest across the arc of deforestation in Brazil and Bolivia using time series of annual Landsat and MODIS data from 2000-2009. Rates of land abandonment to secondary forest during 2002-2006 were less than 5% of deforestation rates in these years. Small areas of new secondary forest were scattered across the entire arc of deforestation, rather than concentrated in any specific region of the basin. Taken together, our analysis of the satellite data record emphasizes the difficulties of addressing the pool of new secondary forests in the context of REDD+ in Amazonia. Due to the small total area of secondary forests, land sparing through agricultural intensification will be an important element of efforts to reduce deforestation rates under REDD+ while improving agricultural productivity in Amazonia.

Morton, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS2007

Importance of Rain Evaporation and Continental Convection in the Tropical Water Cycle

Atmospheric moisture cycling is an important aspect of the Earth's climate system, yet the processes determining atmospheric humidity are poorly understood. For example, direct evaporation of rain contributes significantly to the heat and moisture budgets of clouds, but few observations of these processes are available. Similarly, the relative contributions to atmospheric moisture over land from local evaporation and humidity from oceanic sources are uncertain. Lighter isotopes of water vapour preferentially evaporate whereas heavier isotopes preferentially condense and the isotopic composition of ocean water is known. Here we use this information combined with global measurements of the isotopic composition of tropospheric water vapour from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) aboard the Aura spacecraft, to investigate aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle that are not well constrained by observations of precipitation or atmospheric vapour content. Our measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour near tropical clouds suggest that rainfall evaporation contributes significantly to lower troposphere humidity, with typically 20% and up to 50% of rainfall evaporating near convective clouds. Over the tropical continents the isotopic signature of tropospheric water vapour differs significantly from that of precipitation, suggesting that convection of vapour from both oceanic sources and evapotranspiration are the dominant moisture sources. Our measurements allow an assessment of the intensity of the present hydrological cycle and will help identify any future changes as they occur.

Worden, John↗
NASA NTRS2004

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (105-106 Myr ago). Examples include gullies [1], cold-based tropical glaciers [2], paleolakes [3], and youthful near-surface ice [4]. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

Haberle, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (10(exp 5) - 10(exp 6) Myr ago). Examples include gullies, cold-based tropical glaciers, paleolakes, and youthful near-surface ice. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

Haberle, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Applications of Data Assimilation to Analysis of the Ocean on Large Scales

It is commonplace to begin talks on this topic by noting that oceanographic data are too scarce and sparse to provide complete initial and boundary conditions for large-scale ocean models. Even considering the availability of remotely-sensed data such as radar altimetry from the TOPEX and ERS-1 satellites, a glance at a map of available subsurface data should convince most observers that this is still the case. Data are still too sparse for comprehensive treatment of interannual to interdecadal climate change through the use of models, since the new data sets have not been around for very long. In view of the dearth of data, we must note that the overall picture is changing rapidly. Recently, there have been a number of large scale ocean analysis and prediction efforts, some of which now run on an operational or at least quasi-operational basis, most notably the model based analyses of the tropical oceans. These programs are modeled on numerical weather prediction. Aside from the success of the global tide models, assimilation of data in the tropics, in support of prediction and analysis of seasonal to interannual climate change, is probably the area of large scale ocean modeling and data assimilation in which the most progress has been made. Climate change is a problem which is particularly suited to advanced data assimilation methods. Linear models are useful, and the linear theory can be exploited. For the most part, the data are sufficiently sparse that implementation of advanced methods is worthwhile. As an example of a large scale data assimilation experiment with a recent extensive data set, we present results of a tropical ocean experiment in which the Kalman filter was used to assimilate three years of altimetric data from Geosat into a coarsely resolved linearized long wave shallow water model. Since nonlinear processes dominate the local dynamic signal outside the tropics, subsurface dynamical quantities cannot be reliably inferred from surface height anomalies. Because of its potential for large scale synoptic coverage of the deep ocean, acoustic travel time data should be a natural complement to satellite altimetry. Satellite data give us vertical integrals associated with thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Miller, Robert N.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Precipitation from Space: Advancing Earth System Science

Of the three primary sources of spatially contiguous precipitation observations (surface networks, ground-based radar, and satellite-based radar/radiometers), only the last is a viable source over ocean and much of the Earth's land. As recently as 15 years ago, users needing quantitative detail of precipitation on anything under a monthly time scale relied upon products derived from geostationary satellite thermal infrared (IR) indices. The Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) passive microwave (PMW) imagers originated in 1987 and continue today with the SSMI sounder (SSMIS) sensor. The fortunate longevity of the joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is providing the environmental science community a nearly unbroken data record (as of April 2012, over 14 years) of tropical and sub-tropical precipitation processes. TRMM was originally conceived in the mid-1980s as a climate mission with relatively modest goals, including monthly averaged precipitation. TRMM data were quickly exploited for model data assimilation and, beginning in 1999 with the availability of near real time data, for tropical cyclone warnings. To overcome the intermittently spaced revisit from these and other low Earth-orbiting satellites, many methods to merge PMW-based precipitation data and geostationary satellite observations have been developed, such as the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Product and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing method (CMORPH. The purpose of this article is not to provide a survey or assessment of these and other satellite-based precipitation datasets, which are well summarized in several recent articles. Rather, the intent is to demonstrate how the availability and continuity of satellite-based precipitation data records is transforming the ways that scientific and societal issues related to precipitation are addressed, in ways that would not be otherwise possible. These developments have taken place in parallel with the growth of an increasingly interconnected scientific environment. Scientists from different disciplines can easily interact with each other via information and materials they encounter online, and collaborate remotely without ever meeting each other in person. Likewise, these precipitation datasets are quickly and easily available via various data portals and are widely used. Within the framework of the NASA/JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM mission, these applications will become increasingly interconnected. We emphasize that precipitation observations by themselves provide an incomplete picture of the state of the atmosphere. For example, it is unlikely that a richer understanding of the global water cycle will be possible by standalone missions and algorithms, but must also involve some component of data, where model analyses of the physical state are constrained alongside multiple observations (e.g., precipitation, evaporation, radiation). The next section provides examples extracted from the many applications that use various high-resolution precipitation products. The final section summarizes the future system for global precipitation processing.

Kucera, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Shallow and Deep Latent Heating Modes Over Tropical Oceans Observed with TRMM PR Spectral Latent Heating Data

The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of its formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the Tropics. Associated with this rainfall is a vast amount of heat, which is known as latent heat. It arises mainly due to the phase change of water vapor condensing into liquid droplets; three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere comes from tropical rainfall. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. Three-dimensional distributions of latent heating estimated from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR)utilizing the Spectral Latent Heating (SLH) algorithm are analyzed. Mass-weighted and vertically integrated latent heating averaged over the tropical oceans is estimated as approx.72.6 J/s (approx.2.51 mm/day), and that over tropical land is approx.73.7 J/s (approx.2.55 mm/day), for 30degN-30degS. It is shown that non-drizzle precipitation over tropical and subtropical oceans consists of two dominant modes of rainfall systems, deep systems and congestus. A rough estimate of shallow mode contribution against the total heating is about 46.7 % for the average tropical oceans, which is substantially larger than 23.7 % over tropical land. While cumulus congestus heating linearly correlates with the SST, deep mode is dynamically bounded by large-scale subsidence. It is notable that substantial amount of rain, as large as 2.38 mm day-1 in average, is brought from congestus clouds under the large-scale subsiding circulation. It is also notable that even in the region with SST warmer than 28 oC, large-scale subsidence effectively suppresses the deep convection, remaining the heating by congestus clouds. Our results support that the entrainment of mid-to-lower-tropospheric dry air, which accompanies the large-scale subsidence is the major factor suppressing the deep convection. Therefore, representation of the realistic entrainment is very important for proper reproduction of precipitation distribution and resultant large-scale circulation.

Takayabu, Yukari N.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonality of the Migrating Semidiurnal Tide in the Tropical Upper Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere and its Thermodynamic and Momentum Budget

This work uses the Specified Dynamics-Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Ionosphere/Thermosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X) to determine and explain the seasonality of the migrating semidiurnal tide (SW2) components of tropical upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) temperature, zonal wind, and meridional wind. This work also quantifies aliasing due to SW2 in satellite-based tidal estimates. Results show that during equinox seasons, the vertical profiles of tropical UMLT temperature SW2 and zonal-wind SW2’s amplitudes have a double-peak structure while they, along with meridional-wind SW2, have a single-peak structure in their amplitudes in June solstice. Hough mode reconstruction reveals that a linear combination of five SW2 Hough modes cannot fully reproduce these features. Tendency analysis reveals that for temperature, the adiabatic term, nonlinear advection term, and linear advection term are important. For the winds, the classical terms, nonlinear advection term, linear advection term, and gravity wave drag are important. Results of our alias analysis then indicate that SW2 can induce an ∼60% alias in zonal-mean and DW1 components calculated from sampling like that of the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite and the Aura satellite. This work concludes that in situ generation by wave–wave interaction and/or by gravity waves plays significant roles in the seasonality of tropical UMLT temperature SW2, zonal-wind SW2, and meridional-wind SW2. The alias analysis further adds that one cannot simply assume that SW2 in the tropical UMLT is negligible.

Tides↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics and the accompanying latent heat release, NASA for the U.S. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of an Earth Probe satellite to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated heating. Primary mission goals are: 1) the understanding of crucial links in climate variability by the hydrological cycle, 2) improvement in the large-scale models of weather and climate, and 3) improvement in understanding cloud ensembles and their impacts on larger scale circulations. The linkage with the tropical oceans and landmasses are also emphasized. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched in November 1997 with fuel enough to obtain a four to five year data set of rainfall over the global tropics from 37 deg N to 37 deg S. This paper reports progress from launch date through the spring of 1999. The data system and its products and their access is described, as are the algorithms used to obtain the data. Some exciting early results from TRMM are described. Some important algorithm improvements are shown. These will be used in the first total data reprocessing, scheduled to be complete in early 2000. The reader is given information on how to access and use the data.

Simpson, Joanne↗
NASA NTRS2003

Solar Effects on Climate and the Maunder Minimum: Minimum Certainty

The current state of our understanding of solar effects on climate is reviewed. As an example of the relevant issues, the climate during the Maunder Minimum is compared with current conditions in GCM simulations that include a full stratosphere and parameterized ozone response to solar spectral irradiance variability and trace gas changes. The GISS Global Climate/Middle Atmosphere Model coupled to a q-flux/mixed layer model is used for the simulations, which begin in 1500 and extend to the present. Experiments were made to investigate the effect of total versus spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes; spectrally-varying solar irradiance changes on the stratospheric ozone/climate response with both pre-industrial and present trace gases; and the impact on climate and stratospheric ozone of the preindustrial trace gases and aerosols by themselves. The results showed that: (1) the Maunder Minimum cooling relative to today was primarily associated with reduced anthropogenic radiative forcing, although the solar reduction added 40% to the overall cooling. There is no obvious distinguishing surface climate pattern between the two forcings. (2)The global and tropical response was greater than 1 C, in a model with a sensitivity of 1.2 C per W m-2. To reproduce recent low-end estimates would require a sensitivity 1/4 as large. (3) The global surface temperature change was similar when using the total and spectral irradiance prescriptions, although the tropical response was somewhat greater with the former, and the stratospheric response greater with the latter. (4) Most experiments produce a relative negative phase of the NAO/AO during the Maunder Minimum, with both solar and anthropogenic forcing equally capable, associated with the tropical cooling and relative poleward EP flux refraction. (5) A full stratosphere appeared to be necessary for the negative AO/NAO phase, as was the case with this model for global warming experiments, unless the cooling was very large, while the ozone response played a minor role and did not influence surface temperature significantly. (6) Stratospheric ozone was most affected by the difference between present day and preindustrial atmospheric composition and chemistry, with increases in the upper and lower stratosphere during the Maunder Minimum. While the estimated UV reduction led to ozone decreases, this was generally less important than the anthropogenic effect except in the upper middle stratosphere, as judged by two different ozone photochemistry schemes. (7) The effect of the reduced solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone and on climate was similar in Maunder Minimum and current atmospheric conditions.

Rind, David↗
NASA NTRS1996

Deforestation and Biogenic Trace Emissions from Brazilian Cerrado

The overall goal of NASA's SCAR (Smoke, Cloud and Radiation) Program is to obtain physical and chemical properties of the smoke produced by biomass burning and the effects of the smoke on the earth's radiation balance and climate. It is a joint project with the Brazilian government and their organizations, including INPE (Instituto Nacional Pesquisas Espaciais) who actively participate in all activities. Appropriate estimates of the biomass buming in the tropics is therefore essential to determine its effect on the atmosphere and on climate. The SCAR series of experiments is designed with that purpose. The present study of evaluating the burnt-out areas is to augment the data collected to date to help evaluate the effect of biomass burning.

Sinha, Ravi↗
NASA NTRS1995

Transport of Volcanic Clouds Injected in the Tropics: Case Studies of El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo

The eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon at nearly the same tropical latitude produced two of the largest volcanic clouds this century. Climatic effects of any volcanic eruption depend on spatial distribution of the volcanic cloud. We report the first global simulations which reproduce the markedly different inter-hemispheric transport observed for these clouds in the months immediately following each eruption. Differences in stratospheric mean easterly winds and unequal radiative heating of the clouds explain the different latitudinal transport. It is found that radiative heating of tropical clouds is insensitive to particle size for typical size ranges. Radiative energy balance of optically thick tropical volcanic clouds tends to position the clouds near 25 km altitude.

Young, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

Soebiyanto, Radina P.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Hemispheric Differences in the Annual Cycle of Tropical Lower Stratosphere Transport and Tracers

Transport in the tropical lower stratosphere plays a major role in determining the composition of the entire stratosphere. Previous studies that quantified the relative role of transport processes have generally assumed well-mixed tropics and focused on tropical-wide average characteristics. However, it has recently been shown that there is a hemispheric difference in the annual cycle of tropical lower stratosphere ozone and other tracers, with a larger amplitude in the northern tropics (NT) than in the southern tropics (ST). In this study, we examined the ability of chemistry climate models (CCMs) to reproduce the hemispheric differences in ozone (O3) and other tracers (i.e., hydrochloric acid, or HCl and nitrous oxide, or N2O), and then use the CCMs to examine the cause of these differences. Examination of CCM simulations from the CCMVal-2 project shows that the majority of the CCMs produce the observed feature of a larger annual cycle in the NT than ST O3 and other tracers. However, only around a third of the models produce an ozone annual cycle similar to that observed. Transformed Eulerian Mean analysis of two of the CCMs shows that seasonality in vertical advection drives the seasonality in ST O3 and N2O while seasonality of horizontal mixing drives the seasonality in NT O3 and N2O, with a large increase in horizontal mixing during northern summer (associated with the Asian monsoon). Thus, latitudinal and longitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered to fully understand the balance between transport processes in tropical lower stratosphere.

transport↗
NASA NTRS2019

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models

The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the midlatitudes. Time dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming.

Maria Rugenstein↗