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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Using Remote Sensing Data and Research Results for Urban Heat Island Mitigation

This paper provides information on the characteristics of the urban heat island, research designed to provide the data needed to develop effective urban heat island reduction strategies, and the development of local working groups to develop implementation plans. As background, an overview of research results on the urban heat island phenomenon and the resultant effect on energy usage and air quality will be explored. The use of more reflective roofing materials, paving materials, tree planting, and other initiatives will be explored as a basis for strategies to mitigate urban heat islands and improve the urban environment. Current efforts to use aircraft remote sensing data in Atlanta, Baton Rouge, Sacramento, and Salt Lake City and our work with non-profit organizations designated to lead public education and strategic development efforts will be presented. Efforts to organize working groups comprised of key stakeholders, the process followed in communicating research results, and methodology for soliciting feedback and incorporating ideas into local plans, policies and decision-making will be discussed. Challenges in developing and transferring data products and research results to stakeholders will be presented. It is our ultimate goal that such efforts be integrated into plans and/or decision models that encourage sustainable development.

Estes, Maury↗
NASA NTRS2015

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

VIIRS night sky↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRACER-VOC: Speciated Volatile Organic Compounds at the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment Field Campaign Report

Formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is responsible for the growth of particles into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)-relevant sizes and accounts for a substantial fraction of aerosol mass in the troposphere. Despite its wide abundance and importance, capturing SOA in regional and climate models is still challenging due to complex chemical transformations involved in production of SOA. Oxidation products of biogenic hydrocarbons, such as isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes account for the largest fraction of SOA mass over the continents. As such, biogenic SOA is an important source of continental CCN, and has been recently shown to nucleate ice in the deposition mode. To better account for the processes involved in SOA formation in global and regional climate models, we need better measurements of sources and transformations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), the precursors to SOA formation in the atmosphere. Understanding aerosol-deep convection interactions is an important science driver of the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER), requiring a characterization of the critical controls on aerosol properties and processes, and how those properties and processes vary spatially and temporally in the Houston area. In that environment, the atmospheric photo-oxidative chemistry that drives the evolution and transformation of aerosol properties and processes is strongly impacted by the emission of VOCs, which have both anthropogenic (e.g., industrial, urban, transportation, biomass burning) and biogenic (e.g., marine) sources in the region. Understanding (and disentangling) the complex role of VOCs in such a heterogenous region requires high-time-resolution, speciated VOC measurements that are spatially resolved. To meet these measurement requirements, the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s time-of-flight proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometer (ToF-PTR-MS) was deployed during the TRACER intensive operational period (IOP) from June to September, 2022 at the ancillary site (ANC), which was sited to provide a characterization of the rural atmospheric environment in contrast to the main site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

High Resolution Global Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology Simulations Using the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast System, GEOS-CF

We will give an overview of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Composition Forecast system (GEOS-CF), a high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition model developed by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). This system combines the GEOS weather and aerosol model with the GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide a holistic view of atmospheric composition that captures a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and fine particulate matter. The spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees (approx. 25 km) is fine enough to resolve local features such as nighttime ozone titration previously resolved only by urban or regional models. Furthermore, since there are no boundary conditions for a global model, the GEOS-CF captures large-scale processes such as long-range transport of air pollutants from forest fires. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the model’s overall capability to reproduce the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. In addition, we show how machine learning techniques can be used to correct for sub-grid variability, which further improves model estimates at a given surface observation site. The GEOS-CF system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community alike and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. As an example, we will show the use of GEOS-CF during the Satellite Coastal and Oceanic Atmospheric Pollution Experiment (SCOAPE). The campaign, conducted in collaboration between NASA and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), aims to investigate the response of onshore air quality to Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil and gas exploration, development and production. Detailed gas-phase chemistry, as provided by GEOS-CF, is critical to understand the formation of air pollution related to hydrocarbon emissions from offshore oil and gas activities. The accuracy of GEOS-CF can be further improved by incorporating detailed offshore emissions compiled by BOEM.

Knowland, K. Emma↗
NASA NTRS1994

Concepts of flywheels for energy storage using autostable high-T(sub c) superconducting magnetic bearings

A flywheel for energy storage using autostable high-T(sub c) superconducting magnetic bearings has been built. The rotating disk has a total weight of 2.8 kg. The maximum speed is 9240 rpm. A process that allows accelerated, reliable and reproducible production of melt-textured superconducting material used for the bearings has been developed. In order to define optimum configurations for radial and axial bearings, interaction forces in three dimensions and vertical and horizontal stiffness have been measured between superconductors and permanent magnets in different geometries and various shapes. Static as well as dynamic measurements have been performed. Results are being reported and compared to theoretical models.

Bornemann, Hans J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advocating for view and daylight in buildings: Next steps

With the exponential growth in population and commensurate increased density in urban cities, access to daylight and views to nature is being severely curtailed in buildings. In parallel, increasingly urgent demands to sharply reduce building energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions are being made to mitigate climate change. There are many challenges and performance tradeoffs associated with the building facade (i.e., daylight and view versus solar and glare control); increased prioritization of health and well-being as a fundamental human requirement could adversely affect building energy-efficiency. Given the current state of knowledge on the effects of daylight and view on health and well-being in buildings, we identify critical needs in research, tools and technologies that if satisfied may enable more effective use of daylight and view in buildings within the constraints of climate change. Lack of knowledge regarding the complex causal mechanisms of window views on human factors is a severely limiting factor in forward progress. Current models and methods to derive bidirectional scattering distribution functions (BSDFs) will need to be modified. Developers of energy-efficient window technologies will need more guidance to shape product development. Advanced window technologies and integrated design can enable attainment of both health and well-being and net zero energy goals, but considerable work will be needed to make such options turnkey and broadly available.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heterogeneous climate change impacts on electricity demand in world cities circa mid-century

Rising ambient temperatures due to climate change will increase urban populations’ exposures to extreme heat. During hot hours, a key protective adaptation is increased air conditioning and associated consumption of electricity for cooling. But during cold hours, milder temperatures have the offsetting effect of reducing consumption of electricity and other fuels for heating. We elucidate the net consequences of these opposing effects in 36 cities in different world regions. We couple reduced-form statistical models of cities’ hourly responses of electric load to temperature with temporally downscaled projections of temperatures simulated by 21 global climate models (GCMs), projecting the effects of warming on the demand for electricity circa 2050. Cities' responses, temperature exposures and impacts are heterogeneous, with changes in total annual consumption ranging from –2.7 to 5.7%, and peak power demand increasing by as much as 9.5% at the multi-GCM median. The largest increases are concentrated in more economically developed mid-latitude cities, with less developed urban areas in the tropics exhibiting relatively small changes. The results highlight the important role of the structure of electricity demand: large temperature increases in tropical cities are offset by their inelastic responses, which can be attributed to lower air-conditioning penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

The impact of Uber and Lyft on vehicle ownership, fuel economy, and transit across U.S. cities

We estimate the effects of transportation network companies (TNCs) Uber and Lyft on vehicle ownership, fleet average fuel economy, and transit use in U.S. urban areas using a set of difference-in-difference propensity score-weighted regression models that exploit staggered market entry across the U.S. from 2011 to 2017. We find evidence that TNC entry into urban areas causes an average 0.7% increase in vehicle registrations with significant heterogeneity in these effects across urban areas: TNC entry produces larger vehicle ownership increases in urban areas with higher initial ownership (car-dependent cities) and in urban areas with lower population growth (where TNC-induced vehicle adoption outpaces population growth). We also find no statistically significant average effect of TNC entry on fuel economy or transit use but find evidence of heterogeneity in these effects across urban areas, including larger transit ridership reductions after TNC entry in areas with higher income and more childless households.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

DEPLOYING FAST CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN URBAN NETWORKS: AN ACTIVITY-BASED APPROACH

This paper explores an important problem under the domain of network modeling, the optimal configuration of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) in urban networks considering EV users' daily activities and charging behavior. This study proposes a charging behavior simulation model considering different initial state of charge (SOC), travel distance, availability of home chargers, and the daily schedule of trips for each traveler. The proposed charging behavior simulation model examines the complete chain of trips for EV users as well as the interdependency of trips traveled by each driver. The problem of finding the optimum charging configuration is then formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem that considers the dynamics of travel time and travel distance, the interdependency of trips made by each driver, limited range of EVs, remaining battery capacity for recharging, waiting time in queue, and detour to access a charging station. This problem is solved using a metaheuristic approach for a large-scale case network. A series of examples are presented to demonstrate the model efficacy and explore the impact of energy consumption on the final SOC and the optimum charging infrastructure.

Chain of Trips↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ten questions concerning Large Language Models (LLMs) for building applications

Large Language Models (LLMs) are emerging as powerful AI tools capable of transforming how building information is collected, processed, analyzed, and applied across diverse research areas. Their capabilities can help building operators, facility managers and other stakeholders such as designers, architects and engineers by providing actionable insights for decision-making across planning, construction, operations, and maintenance of buildings and facilities. This paper explores ten key questions concerning the role of LLMs in shaping sustainable, intelligent, and human-centric buildings. From fundamental definitions to advanced applications, we examine how LLMs facilitate decision-making across the life cycle of buildings and energy systems. LLMs can enhance life cycle assessments (LCA), building energy simulations, and real-time data integration, empowering more efficient and adaptive human-AI environments. They can also contribute to streamlining regulatory compliance, improving post-occupancy evaluations, and fostering more inclusive and participatory design processes. Additionally, this paper addresses the ethical challenges posed by LLMs, such as bias, data privacy, and environmental impacts, and explores their potentials in advancing intelligent digital twins (DT) for ongoing building operations and maintenance. Built upon our applied research using LLMs and the review of tools, datasets, and research gaps, we provide a forward-looking perspective on how LLMs can drive innovation, collaboration, and productivity in the built environment while supporting ethical and effective implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy savings and life cycle cost analysis of advanced double skin facade system applied to old apartments in South Korea

South Korea is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, and the population density in urban areas is much higher among others. Apartments are the most common form of residential buildings due to their high population density. More than 60% of domestic residential buildings are apartments, with more than 10 million households. The high population density is a problem that has long plagued South Korea because more than 45% of apartments are old apartments that are more than 20 years old. Old apartment buildings have low thermal performance that results in lots of energy consumption. Balconies, which worked as a thermal buffer, are also being removed by residents to expand indoor space. According to the green remodeling project supported by the Korean government, the typical retrofitting method is replacing external windows with the high-efficiency window in old apartments in South Korea. Here, this paper proposes a retrofitting method using an extended double-skin façade (DSF) system that replaces exterior windows and acts as a thermal buffer. The simulation model is developed with the EnergyPlus simulation program to conduct energy performance analyses. The simulation model has been calibrated using actual experimental data collected between October 1, 2019, and January 15, 2020. Results show that the cooling, heating, and lighting energy can be reduced up to 44.1% by fully utilizing electric energy generated by solar PV panels integrated with the DSF system. The payback period is about 15 years based on the energy price provided by the utility company. Although the payback period is long, it has great potential of energy savings and CO 2 emission reductions. The DSF system should be considered as a way of renovation, considering other factors such as increased real estate values and energy cost increases in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation Studies for an Urban Air Mobility Aircraft using Hardware-In-Loop Experiments

Urban Air Mobility seeks to transport passengers, deliver cargo, and provide emergency medical transportation in major metropolitan areas. This will be accomplished with distributed electric powered vertical takeoff and landing aircraft vehicles. The low specific energy of the current generation lithium-ion battery packs limit the operational range of the electric aircraft. Limited range impacts safety by reducing the amount of time available for analyzing the potential impact of errors and failures and responding to them, and for flying to an alternative landing area or returning to the base. It is therefore critical to understand the impact of flight and environmental conditions on the onboard lithium-ion battery pack’s health. With this as the motivation, the procedure for evaluating the performance of battery packs in a laboratory setting and the results obtained using this procedure on battery packs subject to power draw characteristics of a simulated flight of a NASA conceptual quadrotor aircraft model are described. The fully charged battery is allowed to discharge at specific C-rates based on the power draw profile during the experiment, and the current and voltages are recorded as a function of time. Observed results under different operating conditions and mission profiles are discussed.

UAM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development and Bench-Scale Testing of a Novel Biphasic Solvent-Enabled Absorption Process for Post-Combustion Carbon Capture (Final Technical Report)

A new class of biphasic solvents was developed, and the concept of the enabled carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) absorption process was tested for post-combustion carbon capture in our previous lab-scale research. The primary goals of this project were to advance the development of the novel biphasic CO 2 absorption process (BiCAP) and validate its technical advantages by testing the integrated technology at a 40 kWe bench-scale with actual coal-derived flue gas in a power plant environment. The project was led by the University of Illinois at Urban-Champaign (UIUC), and Trimeric Corporation served as a sub-awardee providing support in basic design and techno-economic studies. To achieve the project goals and objectives, solvent management studies, process modeling and optimization, bench-scale equipment design, construction and testing, and technical, economic and environmental assessments have been conducted. The two top-performing biphasic solvents developed in our previous research were used in this project. Biphasic solvent emissions and control were investigated in the laboratory. The emissions of the biphasic solvents from the absorber were comparable to or lower than the reference 30 wt% monoethanolamine (MEA) solution, while they could be more effectively removed in the water wash column. Lab-scale testing of solvent degradation reclamation has revealed that vacuum distillation was feasible for biphasic solvent reclamation. Aspen Plus models were used to optimize the BiCAP, and a CO 2 stripping configuration introducing a secondary cold solvent feed to the stripper was identified to be the most energy efficient. A 40 kWe bench-scale, integrated BiCAP system was successfully designed, fabricated, and installed at the UIUC’s Abbott Power Plant. Parametric testing with synthetic flue gas has demonstrated that the two biphasic solvents required a more than 40% lower heat duty for CO 2 desorption as compared to the reference MEA tested on the same bench-scale skid. Slipstream testing with actual coal flue gas for a total of 31 days in two test campaigns has further demonstrated stable operation of the bench-scale skid. During the first campaign targeting 90% CO 2 removal, the heat duty averaged at 2,183 MJ/tonne of CO 2 captured and during the second campaign targeting 95% removal, the heat duty averaged at 2,450 MJ/tonne of CO 2 captured. A techno-economic analysis has revealed that for integration of the BiCAP into a 650-MWe pulverized coal-fired power plant, the parasitic power loss was reduced by ~20%, and the cost of CO 2 capture was reduced by ~21% ($36.3/tonne on a December 2018 dollar basis) compared to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s baseline Case B12B. As progression from this bench-scale development effort, a new project “Engineering-Scale Testing of the Biphasic Solvent Based CO 2 Absorption Capture Technology at a Covanta Waste-to-Energy Facility” was awarded by the DOE, launched in February 2023, to allow the team to further test the technology and demonstrate its technical and economic advantages at a pilot scale.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Fluorination on Lithium Transport and Short-Range Order in Disordered-Rocksalt-Type Lithium-Ion Battery Cathodes

Fluorine substitution is a critical enabler for improving the cycle life and energy density of disordered rocksalt (DRX) Li-ion battery cathode materials which offer prospects for high energy density cathodes, without the reliance on limited mineral resources. Due to the strong Li–F interaction, fluorine also is expected to modify the short-range cation order in these materials which is critical for Li-ion transport. In this work, density functional theory and Monte Carlo simulations are combined to investigate the impact of Li–F short-range ordering on the formation of Li percolation and diffusion in DRX materials. Additionally, the modeling reveals that F substitution is always beneficial at sufficiently high concentrations and can, surprisingly, even facilitate percolation in compounds without Li excess, giving them the ability to incorporate more transition metal redox capacity and thereby higher energy density. It is found that for F levels below 15%, its effect can be beneficial or disadvantageous depending on the intrinsic short-range order in the unfluorinated oxide, while for high fluorination levels the effects are always beneficial. Using extensive simulations, a map is also presented showing the trade-off between transition-metal capacity, Li-transport, and synthetic accessibility, and two of the more extreme predictions are experimentally confirmed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compounding effects of Lake and urbanization on summer precipitation in the Greater Chicago area

Here, this study explores the impacts of Lake Michigan and Chicago's urbanization on precipitation patterns over the Greater Chicago Area, using 22 years of observational data and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations focused on an early summer rain event. Observational analysis reveals that urban areas consistently experience more precipitation than the adjacent southern Lake Michigan region throughout the year, particularly before 2015. However, this disparity has narrowed since 2016 due to a more rapid increase in heavy precipitation over the lake compared to urban areas. Specifically, lake precipitation has risen by 25 mm per year, compared to 15 mm per year over urban areas. Additionally, the number of days with precipitation exceeding 5 mm per day has been rising at a rate of 1.34 days per year over the lake and 0.84 days per year over urban areas. Modeling experiments reveal that both urbanization and lake effects, including lake breezes, enhance precipitation over urban areas, primarily through convergence induced by interactions between land and lake breezes. In contrast, these same factors suppress precipitation over the lake. The suppression results from Lake Michigan's stable environment, characterized by cooler surface temperatures, limited evaporation in early summer, and a high-pressure anomaly over the lake driven by urban heating, which creates upward motion over urban areas and downward motion over the lake, further influencing precipitation patterns.

Coastal urban↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strategies to mitigate urban heat: Effects on overheating and cloud formation

This study evaluates the effectiveness of various urban heat island (UHI) overheating mitigation strategies and their associated impacts on urban cloud dynamics and thermal processes. This study shows cloud-resolving and urban-resolving modeling results estimating the impact of Houston-Galveston heat mitigation scenarios and other resilient strategies contemplated in the Climate Adaptation Plan and Resilient Houston reports. The simulated scenarios include high intensity green rooftops, rooftop photovoltaic solar panels, enhanced urban irrigation, white/cool roofs and roads, and street trees. We contrast the adaptation scenarios against a present baseline case, a no city scenario and a larger and denser city as projected by the Houston-Galveston Area Council for 2045. During the daytime, cooling strategies such as cool roofs, cool roads, and green roofs exhibit superior performance in mitigating urban overheating. At night, enhanced urban irrigation emerges as the most effective cooling intervention. Cooling strategies significantly reduce sensible heat flux partitioning during the day, a process that reduces the uplift of air, suppressing the formation of urban shallow cumulus clouds. The extent of urban cloud mixing ratio is reduced in proportion to the decrease in sensible heating. Under the BEP-Tree scenario, which includes wind effects and evapotranspiration driven by a stomatal conductance model, urban trees demonstrated negligible environmental cooling effects and minimal urban cloud modifications. In contrast, the scenarios with more urban cooling and higher latent heat fluxes led to suppressed urban clouds. The net cooling effect achieved by the heat mitigation strategies is influenced by a combination of indirect processes, including the reduction of downwelling longwave radiation flux, due to reduced cloud presence, while some warming is attributed to a modest increase in shortwave radiation that offsets the cooling benefit. Additionally, reduced heat dissipation, weakened thermal gradients, and diminished vertical mixing over urban areas further moderate the cooling potential. These findings highlight the pivotal role of clouds and moist atmospheric processes in shaping the UHI effect and offer insights for designing more effective urban cooling strategies.

albedo changes↗
DOE OSTI2022

How will United States commercial building energy use be impacted by IPCC climate scenarios?

Climate change and anthropogenically-forced shift of weather in the future will impact energy use and resilience of both the built environment and the electric grid. The aim of this analysis is to understand how future climate scenarios will impact electricity and natural gas use of commercial buildings in the United States. Here, this study analyzes this impact for 2030, 2045, and 2100 using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios defined in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 5. The large, gridded simulation of meteorological variables for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 are selected and downscaled to make available hourly Future Meteorological Year (FMY) weather files for use and improvement in subsequent studies. High performance computing resources use these FMYs to simulate commercial prototype buildings in every American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) climate zone of the United States (US), and results are scaled to nation-wide energy use using conditioned floor area multipliers. The analysis is conducted without speculating the physical and performance traits of future buildings or the grid characteristics. This analysis quantifies the impact of climate change on source electrical and natural gas usage for commercial buildings in the United States over the next 80 years. If US commercial floorspace remained constant, total energy use by 2100 is predicted between an 1.75% decrease under the greatest emission scenario (8.5) and a 1.76% increase under the lowest emission scenario (2.6). When adjusted for anticipated urban growth by 2100, the predicted range is 65% increase (8.5) and 71% increase (2.6). Under a global temperature rise climate scenario, the warmest US climate zones will see a large increases in electricity use derived from space cooling while the coldest US climate zones will see significant decreases in natural gas use caused by the decrease in heating necessary. While climate change may ultimately require adaptations of the built environment to withstand its effects and because the United States is a country that requires more heating than cooling, from a building energy perspective, climate change (average temperature rise) is a net energy saver for the United States.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗