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NASA NTRS2008

Eurasian Reindeer Pastoralism in a Changing Climate: Indigenous Knowledge and NASA Remote Sensing

It is intended that Reindeer Mapper/EALAT will be able to provide reindeer herders with an efficient tool for managing the real-time movements and migrations of their herds through enabling improved efficiency in linking different members of the herder settlements or communities and providing real-time local, satellite or other data (e.g., ice melt in lakes and rivers, weather events), thus enabling real time adjustments to herd movements to avoid problems such as changing weather/climate conditions, freeze-thaw "lock-out" problems, or take advantage of availability of better pasturelands along migration routes. The system is being designed to incorporate local data to allow users to bring their own data into the system for analysis in addition to the data provided by the system itself. With the local information of the population, up to date environmental data and habitat characteristics, the system could generate maps depicting important features of interest for reindeer managers. One of the products derived from the planned Reindeer Mapper system will be a web-based graphic display that allows analysts to quickly pinpoint areas of interest such as those with large concentrations of reindeer and provide surrounding environmental information. The system could be automatically updated with near-real-time information such as hourly precipitation and snowfall rate and accumulation, daily surface and air temperatures, and vegetation cover conditions. The system could bring attention to the proximity of human and animal populations as part of the need for control response. A local GIS will bring these many layers together with several supporting models, showing only a straightforward graphic of the real-time situation in the field. Because the system proposed will be operating in the Internet environment, it should be virtually accessible from any network computers and wireless remote access from the field. The International Center for Reindeer Husbandry in Kautokeino, Norway, is providing regional and international coordination of and access to data sets and expertise, and will act as overall clearinghouse for EALAT information.

Maynard, N. G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Integration of Dust Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health

Pollen can be transported great distances. Van de Water et. al., 2003 reported Juniperus pollen, a significant aeroallergen was transported 200-600 km. Hence local observations of plant phenology may not be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. The DREAM (Dust REgional Atmospheric Model, Yin 2007) is a verified model for atmospheric dust transport modeling using MODIS data products to identify source regions and quantities of dust (Yin 2007). The use of satellite data products for studying phenology is well documented (White and Nemani 2006). We are modifying the DREAM model to incorporate pollen transport. The linkages already exist with DREAM through PHAiRS (Public Health Applications in remote Sensing) to the public health community. This linkage has the potential to fill this data gap so that health effects of pollen can better be tracked for linkage with health outcome data including asthma, respiratory effects, myocardial infarction, and lost work days. DREAM is based on the SKIRON/Eta modeling system and the Eta/NCEP regional atmospheric model. The dust modules of the entire system incorporate the state of the art parameterizations of all the major phases of the atmospheric dust life such as production, diffusion, advection, and removal. These modules also include effects of the particle size distribution on aerosol dispersion. The dust production mechanism is based on the viscous/turbulent mixing, shear-free convection diffusion, and soil moisture. In addition to these sophisticated mechanisms, very high resolution databases, including elevation, soil properties, and vegetation cover are utilized. The DREAM model was modified to use pollen sources instead of dust (PREAM). Pollen release will be estimated based on satellite-derived phenology of Juniperus spp. communities. The MODIS surface reflectance product (MOD09) will provide information on the start of the plant growing season, growth stage, peak greenness, dry-down and pollen release. Ground based observational records of pollen release timing and quantities will be used as verification. Techniques developed using MOD09 surface reflectance products will be directly applicable to the next generation sensors such as VIIRS. The resulting deterministic model for predicting and simulating pollen emission and downwind concentration to study details of phenology and meteorology and their dependencies. This information will be used to support the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s National Environmental Public Health Tracking Program (EPHT) and the State of New Mexico environmental public health decision support for asthma and allergies alerts

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Method for Identifying Probable Archaeological Sites from Remotely Sensed Data

Archaeological sites are being compromised or destroyed at a catastrophic rate in most regions of the world. The best solution to this problem is for archaeologists to find and study these sites before they are compromised or destroyed. One way to facilitate the necessary rapid, wide area surveys needed to find these archaeological sites is through the generation of maps of probable archaeological sites from remotely sensed data. We describe an approach for identifying probable locations of archaeological sites over a wide area based on detecting subtle anomalies in vegetative cover through a statistically based analysis of remotely sensed data from multiple sources. We further developed this approach under a recent NASA ROSES Space Archaeology Program project. Under this project we refined and elaborated this statistical analysis to compensate for potential slight miss-registrations between the remote sensing data sources and the archaeological site location data. We also explored data quantization approaches (required by the statistical analysis approach), and we identified a superior data quantization approached based on a unique image segmentation approach. In our presentation we will summarize our refined approach and demonstrate the effectiveness of the overall approach with test data from Santa Catalina Island off the southern California coast. Finally, we discuss our future plans for further improving our approach.

Tilton, James C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Refinement of a Method for Identifying Probable Archaeological Sites from Remotely Sensed Data

To facilitate locating archaeological sites before they are compromised or destroyed, we are developing approaches for generating maps of probable archaeological sites, through detecting subtle anomalies in vegetative cover, soil chemistry, and soil moisture by analyzing remotely sensed data from multiple sources. We previously reported some success in this effort with a statistical analysis of slope, radar, and Ikonos data (including tasseled cap and NDVI transforms) with Student's t-test. We report here on new developments in our work, performing an analysis of 8-band multispectral Worldview-2 data. The Worldview-2 analysis begins by computing medians and median absolute deviations for the pixels in various annuli around each site of interest on the 28 band difference ratios. We then use principle components analysis followed by linear discriminant analysis to train a classifier which assigns a posterior probability that a location is an archaeological site. We tested the procedure using leave-one-out cross validation with a second leave-one-out step to choose parameters on a 9,859x23,000 subset of the WorldView-2 data over the western portion of Ft. Irwin, CA, USA. We used 100 known non-sites and trained one classifier for lithic sites (n=33) and one classifier for habitation sites (n=16). We then analyzed convex combinations of scores from the Archaeological Predictive Model (APM) and our scores. We found that that the combined scores had a higher area under the ROC curve than either individual method, indicating that including WorldView-2 data in analysis improved the predictive power of the provided APM.

Tilton, James C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Feasibility of Estimating Snow Depth in Complex Terrain Using Satellite Lidar Altimetry

Satellite retrievals of snow depth and water equivalent (SWE) are critical for monitoring watershed scale processes around the world. However, the problem is especially challenging in mountainous regions where complex heterogeneities limit the utility of low resolution satellite sensors. The Geoscience Laser Altimeter Sensor (GLAS) aboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) collected surface elevation data along near-repeat reference transects over land areas from 2003-2009. Although intended for monitoring ice caps and sea ice, the seven year global GLAS data base has provided unprecedented opportunity to test the capability of satellite lidar technology for estimating snow depth over land. GLAS single track and low repeat frequency does not provide data sufficient for operational estimates. However, its comparatively small footprint size of -65 m and its database of seasonal repeat observations during both snow and no-snow conditions have been sufficient to evaluate the potential of spacebased lidar altimetry for estimating snow depth. Recent analysis of ICESat elevations in the Uinta Mountains in NE Utah provide encouraging results for watershed scale estimates of snow depth. Research reported here focuses on the sensitivity of several versions of an ICESat snow depth algorithm to a range of landscape types defined by vegetation cover, slope and roughness. Results are compared to available SNOTEL data.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic-Boreal Zone - Report from a NASA Workshop

Early climate modeling studies predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would heat up earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect. These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years. However, despite constant improvement, global climate models have greater difficulty in reproducing the current climate in the Arctic than elsewhere and the scatter between projections from different climate models is much larger in the Arctic than for other regions. Biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that the warming in the Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) could lead to widespread thawing of the permafrost, along with massive releases of CO2 and CH4, and large-scale changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ. However, the uncertainties associated with these BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system models used to describe climate change. These deficiencies in climate and BGC models reflect, at least in part, an incomplete understanding of the Arctic climate system and can be related to inadequate observational data or analyses of existing data. A workshop was held at NASA/GSFC, May 22-24 2012, to assess the predictive capability of the models, prioritize the critical science questions; and make recommendations regarding new field experiments needed to improve model subcomponents. This presentation will summarize the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including the need for aircraft and flux tower measurements and extension of existing in-situ measurements to improve process modeling of both the physical climate and biogeochemical cycle systems. Studies should be directly linked to remote sensing investigations with a view to scaling up the improved process models to the Earth System Model scale. Data assimilation and observing system simulation studies should be used to guide the deployment pattern and schedule for inversion studies as well. Synthesis and integration of previously funded Arctic-Boreal projects (e.g., ABLE, BOREAS, ICESCAPE, ICEBRIDGE, ARCTAS) should also be undertaken. Such an effort would include the integration of multiple remotely sensed products from the EOS satellites and other resources.

Sellers, Piers↗
NASA NTRS2012

Surface Roughness Parameter Uncertainties on Radar Based Soil Moisture Retrievals

Surface roughness variations are often assumed to be negligible for the retrieval of sol moisture. Although previous investigations have suggested that this assumption is reasonable for natural vegetation covers (i.e. Moran et al. 2002), in-situ measurements over plowed agricultural fields (i.e. Callens et al. 2006) have shown that the soil surface roughness can change considerably due to weathering induced by rain.

Joseph, A. T.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

Case. Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface, particularly within weakly-sheared environments such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in land surface and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather over eastern Africa. KMS currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, making use of the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the KMS-WRF runs on a regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMS for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities through new datasets and tools. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR is providing enhanced, experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMS as part of this collaboration. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMS-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of data interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model soil moisture and temperature fields. Additionally, realtime green vegetation fraction (GVF) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi- NPP) satellite will be incorporated into the KMS-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMS using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) package in conjunction with a dynamic scripting package developed by SPoRT (Zavodsky et al. 2014), to help quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. Furthermore, the transition of these MET tools will enable KMS to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This paper presents preliminary efforts to improve land surface model initialization over eastern Africa in support of operations at KMS. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows: The collaborating organizations involved in the project are described in Section 2; background information on LIS and the configuration for eastern Africa is presented in Section 3; the WRF configuration used in this modeling experiment is described in Section 4; sample experimental WRF output with and without LIS initialization data are given in Section 5; a summary is given in Section 6 followed by acknowledgements and references.

Case, Johnathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Satellite Observed Widespread Decline in Mongolian Grasslands Largely Due to Overgrazing

The Mongolian Steppe is one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems. Recent studies have reported widespread decline of vegetation across the steppe and about 70 percent of this ecosystem is now considered degraded. Among the scientific community there has been an active debate about whether the observed degradation is related to climate, or overgrazing, or both. Here, we employ a new atmospheric correction and cloud screening algorithm (MAIAC) to investigate trends in satellite observed vegetation phenology. We relate these trends to changes in climate and domestic animal populations. A series of harmonic functions is fitted to MODIS observed phenological curves to quantify seasonal and inter-annual changes in vegetation. Our results show a widespread decline (of about 12 percent on average) in MODIS observed NDVI across the country but particularly in the transition zone between grassland and the Gobi desert, where recent decline was as much as 40 percent below the 2002 mean NDVI. While we found considerable regional differences in the causes of landscape degradation, about 80 percent of the decline in NDVI could be attributed to increase in livestock. Changes in precipitation were able to explain about 30 percent of degradation across the country as a whole but up to 50 percent in areas with denser vegetation cover (p0.05). Temperature changes, while significant, played only a minor role (r20.10, p0.05). Our results suggest that the cumulative effect of overgrazing is a primary contributor to the degradation of the Mongolian steppe and is at least partially responsible for desertification reported in previous studies.

Mongolia↗
NASA NTRS2013

Re-Greening Sahel: 30 Years of Remote Sensing Data and Field Observations (Mali, Niger)

Desertification of the Sahel region has been debated for decades, while the concept of a "re-greening" Sahel appeared with satellite remote sensing data that allowed vegetation monitoring across wide regions and over increasingly long series of years (nowadays 30 years with the GIMMS-3g dataset). However, the scarcity of long-term field observations of vegetation in the Sahel prevents ground validation and deeper analysis of such trends. After assessing the consistency of the new GIMMS-3g NDVI product by comparison to three other AVHRR-NDVI datasets and MODIS NDVI, regional GIMMS-3g NDVI trends over 1981-2011 are analyzed. Trends are found positive and statistically significant almost everywhere in Sahel over the 1981-2011 period. Long-term field observations of the aboveground herbaceous layer mass have been collected within the Gourma region in Mali (1984-2011) and within the Fakara region in western Niger (1994-2011). These observations sample ecosystem and soil diversity, thus enabling estimation of averaged values representative of the Gourma and Fakara. NDVI measurements are found in good agreement with field observations, both over the Gourma and Fakara regions where re-greening and negative trends are observed respectively. A linear regression analysis performed between spatially averaged seasonal NDVI and a weighted average of field measurements explains 59% of the variability for the Gourma region over 1984-2011, and 38% for the Fakara region over 1994-2011. In the Gourma, which is a pastoral region, the re-greening trend is mainly observed over sandy soils, and attests for the ecosystem's resilience to the 1980s' drought, able to react to the more favorable rainfall of the 1990s and 2000s. However, contrasted changes in the landscape's functioning have occurred locally. An increase in erosion and run-off processes in association with decreasing or stable vegetation cover was observed over shallow soils, which occupy 30% of the area. In the agro-pastoral Fakara, the decreasing trends observed both from satellite NDVI and field assessments of herbaceous mass are hardly explained by rainfall. These results give confidence in the dominant positive trends in Sahelian greenness, but indicate that degradation trends can also be observed, both in situ and from satellite time series.

Sahel↗
NASA NTRS2012

Net Primary Production of Terrestrial Ecosystems from 2000 to 2009

The CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford) ecosystem model has been used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2009, with global data inputs from NASA's Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation cover mapping. Net primary production (NPP) flux for atmospheric carbon dioxide has varied slightly from year-to-year, but was predicted to have increased over short multi-year periods in the regions of the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere, South Asia, Central Africa, and the western Amazon since the year 2000. These CASA results for global NPP were found to be in contrast to other recently published modeling trends for terrestrial NPP with high sensitivity to regional drying patterns. Nonetheless, periodic declines in regional NPP were predicted by CASA for the southern and western Untied States, the southern Amazon, and southern and eastern Africa. NPP in tropical forest zones was examined in greater detail to discover lower annual production values than previously reported in many global models across the tropical rainforest zones, likely due to the enhanced detection of lower production ecosystems replacing primary rainforest.

Terrestiral ecosystems↗
NASA NTRS2014

Aerosol Remote Sensing in Polar Regions

Multi-year sets of ground-based sun-photometer measurements conducted at 12 Arctic sites and 9 Antarctic sites were examined to determine daily mean values of aerosol optical thickness tau(lambda) at visible and near-infrared wavelengths, from which best-fit values of Ångström's exponent alpha were calculated. Analyzing these data, the monthly mean values of tau(0.50 micrometers) and alpha and the relative frequency histograms of the daily mean values of both parameters were determined for winter-spring and summer-autumn in the Arctic and for austral summer in Antarctica. The Arctic and Antarctic covariance plots of the seasonal median values of alpha versus tau(0.50 micrometers) showed: (i) a considerable increase in tau(0.50 micrometers) for the Arctic aerosol from summer to winter-spring, without marked changes in alpha; and (ii) a marked increase in tau(0.50 micrometer) passing from the Antarctic Plateau to coastal sites, whereas alpha decreased considerably due to the larger fraction of sea-salt aerosol. Good agreement was found when comparing ground-based sun-photometer measurements of tau(lambda) and alpha at Arctic and Antarctic coastal sites with Microtops measurements conducted during numerous AERONET/MAN cruises from 2006 to 2013 in three Arctic Ocean sectors and in coastal and off-shore regions of the Southern Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans, and the Antarctic Peninsula. Lidar measurements were also examined to characterize vertical profiles of the aerosol backscattering coefficient measured throughout the year at Ny-Ålesund. Satellite-based MODIS, MISR, and AATSR retrievals of tau(lambda) over large parts of the oceanic polar regions during spring and summer were in close agreement with ship-borne and coastal ground-based sun-photometer measurements. An overview of the chemical composition of mode particles is also presented, based on in-situ measurements at Arctic and Antarctic sites. Fourteen log-normal aerosol number size-distributions were defined to represent the average features of nuclei, accumulation and coarse mode particles for Arctic haze, summer background aerosol, Asian dust and boreal forest fire smoke, and for various background austral summer aerosol types at coastal and high-altitude Antarctic sites. The main columnar aerosol optical characteristics were determined for all 14 particle modes, based on in-situ measurements of the scattering and absorption coefficients. Diurnally averaged direct aerosol-induced radiative forcing and efficiency were calculated for a set of multimodal aerosol extinction models, using various Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function models over vegetation-covered, oceanic and snow-covered surfaces. These gave a reliable measure of the pronounced effects of aerosols on the radiation balance of the surface-atmosphere system over polar regions.

Sun-photometer measurements↗
NASA NTRS2016

Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at ~3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, using the product generated by NOAA/NESDIS. Model verification capabilities are also being transitioned to KMD using NCAR's Model *Corresponding author address: Jonathan Case, ENSCO, Inc., 320 Sparkman Dr., Room 3008, Huntsville, AL, 35805. Email: Jonathan.Case-1@nasa.gov Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) software in conjunction with a SPoRT-developed scripting package, in order to quantify and compare errors in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation in the experimental WRF model simulations. This extended abstract and accompanying presentation summarizes the efforts and training done to date to support this unique regional modeling initiative at KMD. To honor the memory of Dr. Peter J. Lamb and his extensive efforts in bolstering weather and climate science and capacity-building in Africa, we offer this contribution to the special Peter J. Lamb symposium. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows. The collaborating international organizations involved in the project are presented in Section 2. Background information on the unique land surface input datasets is presented in Section 3. The hands-on training sessions from March 2014 and June 2015 are described in Section 4. Sample experimental WRF output and verification from the June 2015 training are given in Section 5. A summary is given in Section 6, followed by Acknowledgements and References.

land surface modeling↗
NASA NTRS2016

Prospects of the ICESat-2 Laser Altimetry Mission for Savanna Ecosystem Structural Studies Based on Airborne Simulation Data

The next planned spaceborne lidar mission is the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2), which will use the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) sensor, a photon counting technique. To pre-validate the capability of this mission for studying three dimensional vegetation structure in savannas, we assessed the potential of the measurement approach to estimate canopy height in an oak savanna landscape. We used data from the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), an airborne photon counting lidar sensor developed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. ATLAS-like data was generated using the MATLAS simulator, which adjusts MABEL data's detected number of signal and noise photons to that expected from the ATLAS instrument. Transects flown over the Tejon ranch conservancy in Kern County, California, USA were used for this work. For each transect we chose to use data from the near infrared channel that had the highest number of photons. We segmented each transect into 50 m, 25 m and 14 m long blocks and aggregated the photons in each block into a histogram based on their elevation values. We then used an automated algorithm to identify cut off points where the cumulative density of photons from the highest elevation indicates the presence of the canopy top and likewise where such cumulative density from the lowest elevation indicates the mean terrain elevation. MABEL derived height metrics were moderately correlated to discrete return lidar (DRL) derived height metrics r(sub 2) and RMSE values ranging from 0.60 to 0.73 and 2.9 m to 4.4 m respectively) but MATLAS simulation resulted in more modest correlations with DRL indices r(sub 2) ranging from 0.5 to 0.64 and RMSE from 3.6 m to 4.6 m). Simulations also indicated that the expected number of signal photons from ATLAS will be substantially lower, a situation that reduces canopy height estimation precision especially in areas of low density vegetation cover. On the basis of the simulated data, there is reason to believe that the ability of ICESat-2 to estimate height in savannas will be comparable to the original ICESat mission although the respective sensors have different measurement principles.

Gwenzi, David↗
NASA NTRS2017

Multi-Decadal Surface Water Dynamics in North American Tundra

Over the last several decades, warming in the Arctic has outpaced the already impressive increases in global mean temperatures. The impact of these increases in temperature has been observed in a multitude of ecological changes in North American tundra including changes in vegetative cover, depth of active layer, and surface water extent. The low topographic relief and continuous permafrost create an ideal environment for the formation of small water bodies - a definitive feature of tundra surface. In this study, water bodies in Nunavut territory in northern Canada were mapped using a long-term record of remotely sensed observations at 30 meters spatial resolution from the Landsat suite of instruments. The temporal trajectories of water extent between 1985 and 2015 were assessed. Over 675,000 water bodies have been identified over the 31-year study period with over 168,000 showing a significant (probability is less than 0.05) trend in surface area. Approximately 55 percent of water bodies with a significant trend were increasing in size while the remaining 45 percent were decreasing in size. The overall net trend for water bodies with a significant trend is 0.009 hectares per year per water body.

Carroll, Mark L.↗