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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Advanced Collision Detection and Site Monitoring for Avian and Bat Species for Offshore Wind Energy (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the outcomes from a project that aimed to design, build, and test a persistent and autonomous monitoring system for avian and bat collisions with offshore wind turbines blades and structures. The system comprises four primary sensor modules: 1) on-blade sensor modules for collision detection and dual-vision image capture on each blade with both visible light and near-infrared imagers; 2) additional on-blade collision sensors mounted further from the root; 3) a nacelle-mounted unit including a 360º camera and ultrasonic microphone array; and, 4) an on-blade, high-performance infrared camera module. Primary targeted outcomes were high sensitivity for the detection of blade strikes from bats and small birds, and automatically captured visual confirmation of the striking object; these features are critical for monitoring offshore wind turbine installations, where ground-based methods are not viable. In addition, local recording will provide a long-term sensor recording database. Following laboratory validation, field testing was conducted on an operational wind turbine in collaboration with the National Wind Technology Center at the NREL Flatirons campus over two planned field tests.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Relief Zone Architecture for Enhanced Durability of Ultrathin Membranes in Electrochemical Conversion Devices

Premature cell failures in electrochemical conversion systems often result when membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) are prepared with ultra-thin (= 15 micrometer-thick) polymer electrolyte membranes (PEMs). These high-performance PEMs are susceptible to mechanical degradation from stress concentrations arising from component and device-level integration. Herein, a relief zone was developed to mitigate mechanical degradation by alleviating excess and non-uniform compression across the active area. Relief zones, created through the ablation of carbonaceous diffusion material achieves a seamless adaptation across a range of MEA dimensions and electrochemical applications without need for costly hardware modifications. This concept was demonstrated using fuel cells as a case study. Accelerated stress test (AST) validations yielded a 6-fold improvement for MEAs prepared with relief zones (i.e., lifetime approximately 1500 h) compared to those fabricated using conventional edge-protection techniques, showcasing the utility of this technique in decoupling integration and device-level engineering effects from intrinsic material limitations for durable electrochemical devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Prediction of transport in the JET DTE2 discharges with TGLF and NEO models using the TGYRO transport code

Abstract The JET Deuterium-Tritium-Experiment Campaign 2 (DTE2) has demonstrated the highest-ever fusion energy production. To forecast the transport dynamics within these discharges, the TGLF and NEO models within the TGYRO transport code were employed. A critical development in this study is the new quasilinear transport model, TGLF-SAT2, specifically designed to resolve discrepancies identified in JET deuterium discharges. This model accurately describes the saturated three-dimensional (3D) fluctuation spectrum, aligning closely with a database of nonlinear CGYRO turbulence simulations, thereby enhancing the predictive accuracy of TGYRO simulations. In validating against the JET DTE2 discharges across two primary operating scenarios, TGYRO effectively predicted the temperature profiles within a broad radial window ( ρ ∼ 0.2–0.85), though with minor ion temperature discrepancies near the core. However, a consistent underprediction of electron density profiles by 20% across the simulation domain was noted, indicating areas for future refinement. To achieve a self-consistent steady-state solution based on the JET DTE2 discharges, an integrated modeling workflow TGYRO-STEP within the OMFIT framework was introduced. This workflow iterates among the core transport, the pedestal pressure and the MHD equilibrium, ultimately yielding a converged solution that significantly reduces dependence on experimental boundary conditions for temperature and density profiles. The integrated simulation results show negligible differences in electron density and temperature profiles compared to standalone TGYRO modeling, while the ion temperature profile is lower due to the updated boundary condition in TGYRO-STEP. The application of the TGYRO-STEP workflow to JET DTE2 discharges serves as a crucial test to validate its robustness and highlights its limitations, providing valuable insights for its potential future application in ITER and Fusion Power Plant deuterium and tritium prediction modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Results of Multiple Tracer Injections into Fractures in the EGS Collab Testbed-1

The EGS Collab project constructed an intermediate scale (~10-20 m) testbed at the 4850 level of the Stanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in South Dakota for testing and validating fracture stimulation and flow/transport models. This testbed consists of eight ~200 ft (~60 m) HQ-diameter (9.6 cm) boreholes that are drilled into the crystalline rocks of the Poorman Formation from the West Access Drift tunnel. Of the eight boreholes, one borehole is used as an injection/stimulation well, while another sub-parallel borehole located about 10 m away from the injection well is used as a production well, and rest of the other boreholes are used as geophysical/fluid sampling monitoring wells. Hydraulic stimulation activities were conducted at three locations along the injection hole in an attempt to create direct fracture connections to the production hole. A flow system has been established between injection and production boreholes through a set of hydraulically stimulated fractures propagated from a notch located at 164 ft in the injection hole. Although we planned for a single production well, a set of natural fractures in the testbed is believed to have intersected the stimulated hydraulic fractures and provided additional flow paths for water to be transported to the drift through multiple monitoring boreholes and weep zones. As the flow tests continued after stimulation activities, single or a combination of two or three producers become dominant producers at different times, mostly as a response to intersection of hydraulic fracture and testbed wells, activation of natural fractures and making new leak points to the monitoring wells, resealing of leaky wells, and so on. Since late October 2018, multiple tracers were injected into the fracture system at the 164 ft location that involves both stimulated and natural fractures, and tracers were recovered from multiple locations in nearby wells and weep. The cumulative water recoveries over the time have ranged from 50 to 90%; however, the injected tracer recoveries from various production sources are much less (ranging from a few percentages to 38%). Changes in water/tracer recoveries, shifting of major producing wells from one well to the others, and other observations (e.g., microseismic, electric resistivity tomography, etc.) indicate a testbed that has undergone several changes since October 2018. In this paper, we present tracer recovery data accumulated during several tracer campaigns, provide conceptual testbed flow pathways, and provide observations that suggest a evolutionary nature of fracture volume and fracture geometry in the testbed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Quantification of LEU Holdup using gamma ray imaging and inverse transport solver

Holdup is the residual amount of special nuclear material (SNM) remaining in a processing facility after the bulk materials have been cleaned out. In commercial uranium processing facilities, quantification of holdup is a major challenge because of the highly variable shapes and sizes of the deposits. Any method that attempts to generalize and calibrate deposit shapes in order to quantify holdup will be prone to high uncertainties. Uncertainties on the order of ±50% are typical in holdup results. In international safeguards applications, a ±50% uncertainty can result in a large amount of material unaccounted for (MUF) thereby increasing the difficulty of detecting material diversion and facility misuse. An imaging-based methodology has been developed with the objective of significantly reducing this uncertainty by using the true deposit shape, instead of relying on oversimplified geometric assumptions. The project is a collaboration between ORNL, Y-12, and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN. Uranium sources of known masses were measured using the Germanium Gamma-ray Imager (GeGI), a high-resolution imaging spectrometer, creating a pixelated map for each spectral bin. Two different gamma imaging methods are employed in this work: coded aperture imaging and Compton imaging. A validated MonteCarlo model of the detector has been developed using the GEANT4 code for determining the intrinsic response of the detector, its enclosure, and the coded aperture mask. An inverse transport solver based on the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo approach known as Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) is employed to use the measurement data from the image pixels (coded aperture or Compton) to solve for the mass of 235 U in the deposit. A reliable method based on the DREAM solver has been developed to flag the infinite thickness condition of a uranium deposit. The project team is working towards improving the image reconstruction for Compton imaging so that a better localization of the source can be achieved. Besides treating the coded aperture and Compton imaging methods independently, the project is also evaluating a combined method that uses the Compton scatter data from a coded aperture measurement. GEANT4 simulations are being performed to evaluate the combined approach. The impact on the DREAM optimization as the source thickness progressively approaches infinite thickness is being evaluated. A number of uranium sources available at ORNL have been measured, and the DREAM results have been tested and validated for the coded aperture imaging. A similar effort will be carried out to validate the Compton based method once the development of algorithms for better localization are complete. The imaging based quantification is very amenable to unattended monitoring of holdup accumulation at key measurement points. A proof of concept measurement has been completed to demonstrate this capability The current work used the high energy resolution imager GeGI. However, the approach and methodologies are applicable to other imagers such as the cadmium zin telluride (CZT) based imager manufactured by H3D, Inc.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

An expedited screening platform for the discovery of anti-ageing compounds in vitro and in vivo

Background: Restraining or slowing ageing hallmarks at the cellular level have been proposed as a route to increased organismal lifespan and healthspan. Consequently, there is great interest in anti-ageing drug discovery. However, this currently requires laborious and lengthy longevity analysis. Here, we present a novel screening readout for the expedited discovery of compounds that restrain ageing of cell populations in vitro and enable extension of in vivo lifespan. Methods: Using Illumina methylation arrays, we monitored DNA methylation changes accompanying long-term passaging of adult primary human cells in culture. This enabled us to develop, test, and validate the CellPopAge Clock, an epigenetic clock with underlying algorithm, unique among existing epigenetic clocks for its design to detect anti-ageing compounds in vitro. Additionally, we measured markers of senescence and performed longevity experiments in vivo in Drosophila, to further validate our approach to discover novel anti-ageing compounds. Finally, we bench mark our epigenetic clock with other available epigenetic clocks to consolidate its usefulness and specialisation for primary cells in culture. Results: We developed a novel epigenetic clock, the CellPopAge Clock, to accurately monitor the age of a population of adult human primary cells. We find that the CellPopAge Clock can detect decelerated passage-based ageing of human primary cells treated with rapamycin or trametinib, well-established longevity drugs. We then utilise the CellPopAge Clock as a screening tool for the identification of compounds which decelerate ageing of cell populations, uncovering novel anti-ageing drugs, torin2 and dactolisib (BEZ-235). We demonstrate that delayed epigenetic ageing in human primary cells treated with anti-ageing compounds is accompanied by a reduction in senescence and ageing biomarkers. Finally, we extend our screening platform in vivo by taking advantage of a specially formulated holidic medium for increased drug bioavailability in Drosophila. We show that the novel anti-ageing drugs, torin2 and dactolisib (BEZ-235), increase longevity in vivo. Conclusions: Our method expands the scope of CpG methylation profiling to accurately and rapidly detecting anti-ageing potential of drugs using human cells in vitro, and in vivo, providing a novel accelerated discovery platform to test sought after anti-ageing compounds and geroprotectors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deep learning to estimate permeability using geophysical data

Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a popular geophysical method to estimate three-dimensional (3D) permeability fields from electrical potential difference measurements. Traditional inversion and data assimilation methods are used to ingest this ERT data into hydrogeophysical models to estimate permeability. Due to ill-posedness and the curse of dimensionality, existing inversion strategies provide poor estimates and low resolution of the 3D permeability field. Recent advances in deep learning provide us with powerful algorithms to overcome this challenge. This paper presents a deep learning (DL) framework to estimate the 3D subsurface permeability from time-lapse ERT data. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework, we train DL-enabled inverse models on simulation data. Each measurement in both synthetic and field data is standardized by removing the mean and scaling the time-series to unit variance. This pre-processing step is necessary to bring simulation data closer to field observations. Subsurface process models based on hydrogeophysics are used to generate this synthetic data. Training performed on limited simulation data resulted in the DL model over-fitting. An advanced data augmentation based on mixup is implemented to generate additional training samples to overcome this issue. This mixup technique creates weakly labeled (low-fidelity) samples from strongly labeled (high-fidelity) data. The weakly labeled training data is then used to develop DL-enabled inverse models and reduce over-fitting. As both time-lapse ERT (1133048 features/realization) and 3D permeability (585453 features/realization) data samples are from a high-dimensional space, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to reduce dimensionality. Encoded ERT and encoded permeability are generated using the trained PCA estimators. A deep neural network is then trained to map the encoded ERT to encoded permeability. This mixup training and unsupervised learning allowed us to build a fast and reasonably accurate DL-based inverse model under limited simulation data. Results show that proposed weak supervised learning can capture salient spatial features in the 3D permeability field. Quantitatively, the average mean squared error (in terms of the natural log) on the strongly labeled training, validation, and test datasets is less than 0.5. The R 2 -score (global metric) is greater than 0.75, and the percent error in each cell (local metric) is less than 10%. Finally, an added benefit in terms of computational cost is that the proposed DL-based inverse model is at least O(10 4 ) times faster than running a forward model once it is trained. Data generation, DL model training, and hyperparameter tuning to identify optimal neural network architectures utilized high-performance computing resources while the DL inference is performed on a standard laptop. Approximately, O(10 5 ) processor hours are used for generating data and DL tuning and training. We acknowledge that the data generation and DL model development are expensive. But once a DL model is trained, it can be re-used for inversion rapidly for the given system, with set physics and domain. Note that traditional inversion may require multiple forward model simulations (e.g., in the order of 10 to 1000), which are very expensive. This computational savings ≈ O(10 5 ) – O(10 7 )) makes the proposed DL-based inverse model attractive for subsurface imaging and real-time ERT monitoring applications due to fast and yet reasonably accurate estimations of permeability field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development of Integrated Mechanical Pods

This presentation highlights early wins, updated progress, and upcoming developments on ‘national-scale shared development platform’ for rapid prototyping, testing and validation of various integrated Mechanical Pod solutions and form factors. Such pod solutions consist of a set of all-electric heat pump mechanical equipment that have integrated functionalities through built-in controls, with heating, cooling, hot water, ventilation (including energy recovery), electrical management, and battery storage within a single package. The presentation draws inspiration from the success of bathroom pods in the US modular construction industry, UK’s efforts with unitizing mechanical systems as ‘utility cupboards’, and VEIC’s early wins in design-build of all-electric Mechanical Pod solutions in Vermont. The presentation includes researchers and partners involved with NREL in Design for Manufacturing and Assembly (DfMA), Virtual Design and Construction (VDC), and digital twin based process optimization modeling of integrated Mechanical Pod solutions. The presentation aims to highlight early wins from such a platform and how various physical and virtual tools are currently being employed as part of NREL’s ongoing multi-year project funded by US DOE. Streamlined procurement, coordination, installation, and O&M of Mechanical Pods such that the majority of work is delegated to the off-site modular factory implies monetary savings. Such a seemingly basic shift in location of the construction process leads to great reduction in complexity, first cost, lead time, and waste, and greater opportunities for innovative compartmentalization and integration of mechanical systems appropriately sized for each apartment or hotel guest room. However, past studies on unitized combination systems show that high installation costs, maintenance issues, challenges with system integration, limitations in existing electrical infrastructure, and lack of architecturally appealing solutions are key barriers. NREL and partners aim to address key barriers through DfMA approach, rapid prototyping and testing, and digital twin process optimization modeling. The presentation is also a call for interested entities to partner with NREL as part of the national-scale development platform, help drive both product and process innovation, and encourage open source sharing of learnings. Learning objectives include (1) learn about the vision of national-scale shared development platform for process-product innovation on integrated mechanical pod solutions and how to get involved, (2) gain an understanding of the components of an all-electric, high performance home, design characteristics and equipment included in an all-electric mechanical pod, integration of mechanical systems within a modular factories’ assembly line, and the system’s commissioning, operation and maintenance. The pre-planning and coordination with the factory and sub-contractors are also highlighted, (3) gain an understanding of using process modeling tools to quantify resource-constrained performance of operations (such as integration of energy efficiency strategies) to manufacture modules of varying design, (4) gain insights on virtual design, rapid prototyping, and emulated testing of various form factors across different climatic conditions. The need for such preliminary testing with open source sharing of learnings will also be highlighted.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Performance of the Initial Implementation of the Shift Monte Carlo Code in SCALE 6.3

The Shift Monte Carlo code will be introduced in SCALE 6.3 as an alternative to the KENO V.a, KENO-VI, and Monaco codes. Calculations were performed to establish the performance of Shift for criticality safety analyses within the criticality safety analyses sequence (CSAS) based on models in the Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID). This test suite contains over 600 critical experiment models covering a broad range of fissile materials and neutron energy spectra. The comparisons presented include calculated k eff values and runtime performance for serial calculations and a selection of parallel calculations. Comparisons are presented for multigroup (MG) and continuous-energy (CE) calculations for KENO V.a and KENO-VI models. Results generated with a beta version of SCALE 6.3 indicate excellent agreement in k eff values between KENO and Shift. The largest differences in the average k eff value calculated for the 15 categories of KENO V.a models are 0.00020 ± 0.00011 Δ k for MG calculations and 0.00011 ± 0.00005 Δ k for CE calculations. Similar comparisons in three categories using KENO-VI result in the largest differences for MG calculations: as 0.00004 ± 0.00003 Δ k , and -0.00002 ± 0.00003 Δ k for CE. The preliminary results also indicate that Shift is faster than KENO on a per particle basis, especially for fast spectrum systems. The uncertainty per history is also higher, however, so the Monte Carlo figure of merit is higher for KENO for thermal and intermediate spectrum systems. As expected, Shift generally has better speedup than KENO for parallel calculations, regardless of neutron energy spectrum.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

HIBP Applications to Advance Understanding of Plasma Transport Physics (2011-2017) (and subsequently titled) Development of Beam Measurements to Advance Understanding of Transients and Improve Validation (2017-2020) (Final Technical Report)

This is the Final Technical Report for the DoE Measurement Innovation (previously Diagnostic Development) grant DE-SC0006077 titled HIBP Applications to Advance Understanding of Plasma Transport Physics (2011-2017), and subsequently titled Development of Beam Measurements to Advance Understanding of Transients and Improve Validation (2017-2020). The grant was funded by the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) for the period 1 May 2011–17 July 2020. Work performed through the grant has resulted in diagnostic innovations and new measurement capabilities that will improve understanding of transport, magnetic equilibrium, and electric fields in magnetically confined plasmas. We have developed novel hardware and advanced techniques to expand beam-based diagnostic capabilities, and extend measurements to new operating regimes. Some have been realized using a Heavy Ion Beam Probe (HIBP) having traditional features, while other applications have joined our innovations with subsets of advantageous HIBP features. This work has established smaller, more economical detection systems and, in doing so, may enable substantial extension of scenarios in which beam-based diagnostics are deployed. Key Measurement Innovations include: Computer Models and Simulations of HIBP Applications-Computer modeling and simulating of HIBP applications is central to predicting interaction of beam particles with plasmas, designing diagnostic systems, and anticipating measurement characteristics. We have extended the capability and improved measurement fidelity of the HIBP diagnostic on the Madison Symmetric Torus (MST) reversed field pinch (RFP); simulated feasibility of HIBP operation in the Helically Symmetric eXperiment (HSX) optimized stellarator; and investigated the plausibility of HIBP measurements in the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak. We have also developed a new technique that uses ion optics to model a finite phase-space beam. It yields more realistic (than traditional method) estimates of sample volume characteristics, which influence measurement resolution and sensitivity. Extension of Diagnostic Capabilities and Measurements on the MST RFP-Capabilities have been extended using the first and only HIBP installation on an RFP. Challenges associated with operation of the diagnostic on MST include the three-dimensional nature of particle trajectories, temporal topology and amplitude changes in the plasma equilibrium, and strong particle and radiative emission from the plasma. We have addressed these challenges through development of detailed and higher precision diagnostic simulations, calibrated subtraction of noise to resolve secondary ion signals, and implementation of hardware that enables higher fidelity measurement of plasma fluctuations. Development of New Hardware and Measurement Techniques - We have advanced beam-based measurement capabilities via development of new detectors and techniques to determine the poloidal magnetic flux ψ in the plasma, and enable placement of detectors close to the plasma and thus allow a smaller and less expensive diagnostic. We have demonstrated measurement of ψ, an ability that was made possible by development of highly effective noise reduction techniques. We also modeled the effect of non-ideal and instrumentation effects by developing a virtual (simulated) diagnostic. Application of beam-based diagnostics on various devices and multiple magnetic configurations (e.g. stellarator, tokamak, and reversed field pinch) enables investigation of critical physics issues and measurements resulting in the broad parameter space data needed to test and validate theory & modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Crystal Prediction and Design of Tunable Light Emission in BTB–Based Metal–Organic Frameworks

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have recently been shown to exhibit unique mechanisms of luminescence based on charge transfer between structural units in the framework. These MOFs have the potential to be structural tuned for targeted emission with little or no metal participation. Here a computationally led, material design and synthesis methodology is presented that elucidates the mechanisms of light emission in interpenetrated structures comprised of metal centers (M = In, Ga, InGa, InEu) and BTB (1,3,5-Tris(4-carboxyphenyl)benzene) linkers, forming unique luminescent M-BTB MOF frameworks. Gas phase and periodic electronic structure calculations indicate that the intensity of the emission and the wavelength are overwhelmingly controlled by a combination of the number of interacting stacked linkers and their interatomic spacings, respectively. In the MOF, the ionic radii of the metal centers primarily control the expansion or shrinkage of the linker stacking distances. Experimentally, multiple M-BTB-based MOFs are synthesized and their photoluminescence was tested. Experiments validated the modeling by confirming that shifts in the crystal structure result in variations in light emission. Through this material design method, the mechanisms of tuning luminescence properties in interpenetrated M-BTB MOFs have been identified and applied to the design of MOFs with specific wavelength emission based on their structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantifying optical loss of high-voltage degradation modes in photovoltaic modules using spectral analysis

The direct current bias for photovoltaic (PV) modules interconnected in series-strings may include both high voltage negative (“HV-”) and positive (“HV+”) polarity with respect to the electrical ground. Multiple degradation modes, resulting in quantifiable optical loss, were found to occur during HV-/HV+ sequential stress, including corrosion of the external glass surface, encapsulant delamination (at its interfaces with the glass and the PV cell), internal haze formation (resulting from a chemical interaction between the glass and the encapsulant), corrosion and migration of the gridlines, and corrosion of the silicon nitride (Si x N y ) antireflective coating on the cell. The effects of these separate modes were examined using monolithic (e.g., glass or PV cell) and laminated-coupon (glass/encapsulant/glass or glass/encapsulant/cell/encapsulant/backsheet) specimens. Characterizations during and after unbiased accelerated testing at 85°C/85% relative humidity included spectrophotometry, optical microscopy, electron microscopy, and ellipsometry. For some module components (i.e., the glass and the Si x N y coating), the optical performance was determined through iterative analysis of empirical measurements. Concentrating on just their spectral effect, a novel model was then developed to estimate the transfer of light to the PV cell and the return of light from the PV module with simultaneous degradation mechanisms, which was compared with a mini-module previously subjected to HV-/HV+ stress. Here the model suggests that one third of the current loss observed for the mini-module can be attributed to the optical degradation of the packaging materials. The dominant degradation modes include encapsulant delamination and corrosion of the Si x N y coating. Recommendations are given so that the optical model may be improved relative to accelerated testing and validated relative to field aging.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Artificial neural networks estimate evapotranspiration for Miscanthus × giganteus as effectively as empirical model but with fewer inputs

Estimating actual evapotranspiration (ET) is particularly crucial for addressing how vegetation affects the water balance of ecosystems. ET estimation can be complex with empirical models due to their many parameters and reliance on aridity. In contrast, artificial neural networks (ANNs) could potentially estimate ET with fewer and more common meteorological parameters. In this study, we trained two ANNs, one using a feed-forward approach (FFN) and the other a nonlinear auto-regressive network (NARX), to predict ET and compared them to the commonly used empirical model Granger and Gray (GG). We trained our models on a nine-year eddy covariance (EC) dataset for Miscanthu s × giganteus ( M . × giganteus ) from Illinois (UIEF), then tested them using out-of-sample data from both UIEF and a different location in Iowa (SABR) to compare the accuracy of FFN, NARX, and GG models in estimating daily ET. A combination of air temperature (T a ) and solar radiation (R s ) was chosen as inputs due to the highest R 2 for FFN (R 2 = 0.79, 0.81, and 0.79 for training, testing, and validation, respectively) and only T a for NARX (R 2 = 0.70 for out-of-sample validation). The predictive power of the FFN model was superior to the NARX and GG models at the UIEF site (R 2 = 0.84, 0.70, and 0.83 for out-of-sample validation, respectively). Our analysis showed that ANN approaches are as accurate as empirical approaches for estimating ET but use fewer inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Freundlich isotherm equation best represents phosphate sorption across soil orders and land use types in tropical soils of Puerto Rico

Biomass production in the lowland wet tropical forest is greater than in any other biome, and it is typically limited by soil phosphorus (P) availability. However, the mechanisms involved in the P cycle remain poorly represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Soil P sorption processes are key in the P cycle and for understanding the extent of P limitation for plant productivity. Currently, a few ESMs include isotherm equations to model these processes. Although the Langmuir equation is widely cited, other isotherm equations may better describe sorption in tropical soils. Here, we use a diverse range of soil samples from Puerto Rico to test the validity of the Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin equation. We found that across four soil orders (Inceptisols, Mollisols, Oxisols, Ultisols), and forested and cultivated land use types, the Freundlich equation best represented soil P sorption. Furthermore, the Langmuir and the Temkin equations poorly represent soil P adsorption, especially at low P concentrations. Specifically, the Langmuir equation underestimated soil P adsorption by 40% and the Temkin equation overestimated adsorption by 76%. We also found, as expected, that soil clay content and pH were the most important parameters explaining the variability of the Freundlich (K f ) constant. Greater clay content and lower pH, common in highly weathered Ultisols and Oxisols which are abundant in the tropics, led to greater K f values. Overall, our results suggest that a diversity of soils can prompt underestimation of P sorption when using the Langmuir isotherm, which leads to an overestimation of available P that can have repercussions on ESM predictions of the P cycle and tropical forest productivity.

Earth system models↗

Simulation of mineral dissolution at the pore scale with evolving fluid-solid interfaces: review of approaches and benchmark problem set

This manuscript presents a benchmark problem for the simulation of single-phase flow, reactive transport, and solid geometry evolution at the pore scale. The problem is organized in three parts that focus on specific aspects: flow and reactive transport (part I), dissolution-driven geometry evolution in two dimensions (part II), and an experimental validation of three-dimensional dissolution-driven geometry evolution (part III). Five codes are used to obtain the solution to this benchmark problem, including Chombo-Crunch, OpenFOAM-DBS, a lattice Boltzman code, Vortex, and dissolFoam. These codes cover a good portion of the wide range of approaches typically employed for solving pore-scale problems in the literature, including discretization methods, characterization of the fluid-solid interfaces, and methods to move these interfaces as a result of fluid-solid reactions. A short review of these approaches is given in relation to selected published studies. Results from the simulations performed by the five codes show remarkable agreement both quantitatively--based on upscaled parameters such as surface area, solid volume, and effective reaction rate--and qualitatively--based on comparisons of shape evolution. This outcome is especially notable given the disparity of approaches used by the codes. Therefore, these results establish a strong benchmark for the validation and testing of pore-scale codes developed for the simulation of flow and reactive transport with evolving geometries. They also underscore the significant advances seen in the last decade in tools and approaches for simulating this type of problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Application of machine learning to characterize gas hydrate reservoirs in Mackenzie Delta (Canada) and on the Alaska north slope (USA)

Here, artificial neural network-trained models were used to predict gas hydrate saturation distributions in permafrost-associated deposits in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend on the Alaska North Slope (ANS), USA and at the Mallik research site in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. The database of Logging-While-Drilling (LWD) and wireline logs collected at five wells (Mount Elbert, Ignik Sikumi, and Kuparuk 7–11–12 wells at ANS, plus 2L-38 and 5L-38 wells at the Mallik research site) includes more than 10,000 depth points, which were used for training, validation, and testing the machine learning (ML) models. Data used in training the ML models include the well logs of density, porosity, electrical resistivity, gamma radiation, and acoustic wave velocity measurements. Combinations of two or three out of these five well logs were found to reliably predict the gas hydrate saturation with accuracy varying between 80 and 90% when compared to the gas hydrate saturations derived from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-based technique. The ML models trained on data from three ANS wells achieved high fidelity predictions of gas hydrate saturation at the Mallik site. The results obtained in this study indicate that ML models trained on data from one geological basin can successfully predict key reservoir parameters for permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations within another basin. A generalized approach for selecting a well log combination that can improve model accuracy is discussed. Overall, the study outcome supports earlier work demonstrating that ML models trained on non-NMR well logs are a viable alternative to physics-driven methods for predicting gas hydrate saturations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Lattice Boltzmann Modeling of Drying of Porous Media Considering Contact Angle Hysteresis

Drying of porous media is governed by a combination of evaporation and movement of the liquid phase within the porous structure. Contact angle hysteresis induced by surface roughness is shown to influence multi-phase flows, such as contact line motion of droplet, phase distribution during drainage and coffee ring formed after droplet drying in constant contact radius mode. However, the influence of contact angle hysteresis on liquid drying in porous media is still an unanswered question. Lattice Boltzmann model (LBM) is an advanced numerical approach increasingly used to study phase change problems including drying. In this paper, based on a geometric formulation scheme to prescribe contact angle, we implement a contact angle hysteresis model within the framework of a two-phase pseudopotential LBM. The capability and accuracy of prescribing and automatically measuring contact angles over a large range are tested and validated by simulating droplets sitting on flat and curved surfaces. Afterward, the proposed contact angle hysteresis model is validated by modeling droplet drying on flat and curved surfaces. Then, drying of two connected capillary tubes is studied, considering the influence of different contact angle hysteresis ranges on drying dynamics. Finally, the model is applied to study drying of a dual-porosity porous medium, where phase distribution and drying rate are compared with and without contact angle hysteresis. The proposed model is shown to be capable of dealing with different contact angle hysteresis ranges accurately and of capturing the physical mechanisms during drying in different porous media including flat and curved geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A meta-learning based distribution system load forecasting model selection framework

This paper presents a meta-learning based, automatic distribution system load forecasting model selection framework. Furthermore, the framework includes the following processes: feature extraction, candidate model preparation and labeling, offline training, and online model recommendation. Using load forecasting needs and data characteristics as input features, multiple metalearners are used to rank the candidate load forecast models based on their forecasting accuracy. Then, a scoring-voting mechanism is proposed to weights recommendations from each meta-leaner and make the final recommendations. Heterogeneous load forecasting tasks with different temporal and technical requirements at different load aggregation levels are set up to train, validate, and test the performance of the proposed framework. Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of the meta-learning based approach is satisfactory in both seen and unseen forecasting tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗