NASA NTRS1997
This current leading theory of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon involves reflection of equatorial waves on the western ocean boundary to shift the ENSO phase from El Nino to La Nina and vice versa. However, recent satellite altimetry and In situ observations indicate that this theory has several flaws. These include imperfect equatorial wave reflection on the western ocean boundary, a maxima of the simulated coupled wind-sea surface temperature (SST) interaction located too far into the eastern equatorial Pacific, and an excessive role of thermocline displacement on SST in this region. We show that the central equatorial Pacific SST is fundamental in driving the EIVSO ocean-atmosphere coupled system, through the east-west displacement of the eastern edge of the warm pool, perfectly related with ENSO. Within the equatorial wave-guide, the dominance of surface zonal advection in these displacements is demonstrated with four different satellite and in situ data sets and three ocean models. This demonstration is supported by the evidence of a convergence of water masses into the eastern edge of the warm pool, resulting in a well-defined salinity front. All these results lead us to propose a notable modification of the leading delayed-action oscillator theory for the oscillatory nature of ENSO. Simulations with a linearized coupled ocean-atmosphere model result in 3-6 year ENSO-like oscillations, with many Of the variable model parameters found very close to their observed values. This simple model suggests that ocean processes ignored or underestimated in the delayed action oscillator theory, such as zonal current convergence, zonal advection of sea surface temperature and equatorial wave reflection from the eastern-ocean boundary, are fundamental to the development of ENSO, in particular to its manifestations in the central equatorial Pacific.