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Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model
Near-real-time (NRT) streamflow data are critical importance for timely water resources management. Here, we developed an open-source tool, FlowStats, for NRT streamflow analysis and visualization in Germany, based on NRT meteorological data from the German Weather Service and simulated streamflow from a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The LSTM model achieved very good overall performance, median NSE of 0.80 for the test period across 1,479 catchments. FlowStats provides options for deriving various streamflow statistics, from normal and abnormal streamflow detection to drought and flood analyses. An example analysis from FlowStats revealed widespread below-normal to extreme low-flow conditions across Germany from March to May 2025, which weakened from June to September 2025. Drought analysis for September 2025 highlighted severe to extreme drought conditions in northwestern Germany, while flood classifications indicated that high-flow events occurred in southwestern Germany. FlowStats can be used for various hydrological assessments to support water resources management.
Wattile: Probabilistic Deep Learning-based Forecasting of Building Energy Consumption [SWR-20-94]
Accurate energy forecasting is becoming critical due to many reasons: i ) optimal distributed energy resources operations and dispatch, ii) fault detection and diagnostics, and iii) meeting operational energy efficiency targets. Wattile uses deep learning (DL) for the building's short-term load forecasting application. Two specific types of neural networks called, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) models are used to make predictions. Forecasting models are trained using online historical weather and occupancy indicator data streams from the Intelligent Campus Program's data acquisition systems at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for main meters and sub-meters of multiple building types. These models use probabilistic methods to provide quantile-based forecasts in addition to nominal conditional median predictions of electricity consumption.
Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction
Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract
Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC) of Meteorological Time Series Data for Billy Barr, East River, Colorado USA
A comprehensive Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) statistical framework consists of three major phases: Phase 1—Preliminary raw data sets exploration, including time formatting and combining datasets of different lengths and different time intervals; Phase 2—QA of the datasets, including detecting and flagging of duplicates, outliers, and extreme values; and Phase 3—the development of time series of a desired frequency, imputation of missing values, visualization and a final statistical summary. The time series data collected at the Billy Barr meteorological station (East River Watershed, Colorado) were analyzed. The developed statistical framework is suitable for both real-time and post-data-collection QA/QC analysis of meteorological datasets.The files that are in this data package include one excel file, converted to CSV format (Billy_Barr_raw_qaqc.csv) that contains the raw meteorological data, i.e., input data used for the QA/QC analysis. The second CSV file (Billy_Barr_1hr.csv) is the QA/QC and flagged meteorological data, i.e., output data from the QA/QC analysis. The last file (QAQC_Billy_Barr_2021-03-22.R) is a script written in R that implements the QA/QC and flagging process. The purpose of the CSV data files included in this package is to provide input and output files implemented in the R script.
Geothermal Deep Direct Use for Turbine Inlet Cooling in East Texas
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory (SMU), Eastman Chemical (Longview, TX), and TAS (Houston, TX) evaluated the feasibility of using geothermal heat to improve the performance of a natural-gas power plant in East Texas. The area of interest is the Eastman Chemical plant in Longview, Texas, which is on the northwestern margin of a geologic region known as the Sabine Uplift. The feasibility study focused on determining the potential for accessing a subsurface hot-water geothermal resource within a 10-km radius of the site to provide thermal energy for absorption chillers. Wells within a 20-km radius are included for broader geological comparison to determine the heat flow, temperature-at-depth, field porosity and permeability. The lithologies of most interest are the Lower Cretaceous Trinity Group and Upper Jurassic Cotton Valley Group. The deeper Cotton Valley formations are hotter (averaging 117 to 130°C), yet permeability and porosity are low. The shallower Trinity Group contains more variability in permeability and porosity and lower temperatures averaging about 98 to 117°C. The shallower formations are considered despite the lower temperature because of increased ability to produce larger volumes of water and extract enough heat before reinjection. The complete SMU analysis is available in the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS). Tapping such deep geothermal sources for direct heating (as opposed to power generation) is known as geothermal deep direct use (DDU). Geothermal DDU has potential across a wide swath of the United States but is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for what are typically small-scale, variable-demand projects. This project examines the feasibility of geothermal energy integration in a natural-gas combined cycle power station in East Texas. The DDU resource is tapped to drive absorption chillers (24/7) for production of chilled water at 5-10°C (41-50°F). This chilled water is stored until needed, which allows for continuous operation with a relatively small-capacity geothermal/absorption chiller system. When conditions are favorable, the chilled water is dispatched to cool the air entering the compressor stage of a gas combustion turbine. This process, known as turbine inlet cooling (TIC), boosts power production during periods of high temperature and high-power demand. Such systems can enhance grid reliability and reduce the cost for peak-demand power. A simulation model of the power plant was developed in IPSEpro software and validated against operational data from the plant. This model allowed the team to estimate the additional power that could be produced by applying TIC under different operating and ambient conditions. Absorption chiller performance was estimated from vendor sources to determine the production rate of chilled water from the geothermal resource. Geothermal drilling and development costs were estimated using NREL's GEOPHIRES 2.0. The expected lower drilling costs in this region led to an estimated cost of geothermal heat of about $4/MMBtu (1.4 cents/kWh t ). The estimated cost for the absorption chillers and TIC hardware were obtained from literature sources and project partners. Hourly data were obtained for weather, natural gas and electricity prices, and plant operating state for 2017, which served as a representative year. NREL estimated the capital cost, operating cost, and additional electricity production and revenue for different combinations of geothermal capacity, chiller capacity, and water storage-tank size. The analysis drove toward smaller geothermal and chiller systems to reduce equipment cost. A relatively low-cost water storage tank accumulated the near-continuous chilled water output for later use when TIC was most valued.
Boundary Layer Controls on the Shallow-to-Deep Cumulus Transition (Final Technical Report)
This project advanced our understanding of the processes governing cumulus cloud formation and provides an improved observational basis for validating earth system models. To be specific, the project used laser- and radar-remote sensors to examine the physical properties of updrafts that rise from earth’s surface and initiate clouds deeper in the atmosphere. These updrafts comprise “thermals” and “plumes” and occur at small spatial and temporal scales (e.g., 10s of minutes, 100s of meters). These small scales preclude explicit representation in most earth system and climate models, and thus necessitate “sub-grid-scale” parameterization of updraft processes. The innovation of this project was to directly measure the size, shape, strength and water vapor content of these updrafts with Doppler and Raman lidars, respectively, and to link these updraft properties to cloud processes using vertically pointed weather radars. The resulting data sets comprise 100s of thousands of updrafts and thousands of clouds, which far exceeds previous efforts, and thereby provides a robust statistical and physical representation of these processes. From these large datasets the project produced a sequence of scientific analyses that: (1) Elucidate how variations in the turbulent structure of the convective boundary layer control shallow cumulus convection, (2) Quantify the upward transport of water vapor to cloud base via thermals and plumes, (3) Validate large-eddy simulations of updrafts and shallow convective clouds, (4) Demonstrate a size-to-strength relationship between updraft width and updraft speed, and (5) Demonstrate how updrafts interact with the stability at the top of the convective boundary layer to modulate the depth and vigor of convective clouds. These results have been disseminated via several published journal articles, academic theses, and conference presentations. Collectively these results contribute to the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program’s goal to “improve understanding of the key cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and radiation processes that affect the Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle, particularly processes that limit the predictive ability of regional and global earth system models”.
Downscaled Earth System Model Data for Resilient Energy System Planning
The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. In this presentation, we explore the output characteristics of the dataset and various validation analyses. We also present and discuss plans for the integration of this data into power system planning models using a decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methodology.
Meteorological data from the Billy Bar site at the East River, Colorado
This dataset includes Quality Assessed and Quality Controlled (QA/QC) meteorological data from the Billy Bar field site in the East River Watershed, Colorado in order to inform watershed hydrobiogeochemical processes. The data includes 1-hour aligned time series of Solar Radiation, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Air Temperature, Relative Humidity, Barometric Pressure, and Precipitation. For each parameter, the QA flags are given: 1 is for extreme (potential abnormal values), and 0 is for values in the expected range. The Rmarkdown document is a stand-alone file/notebook that preserves the text, code, and code results, as well as formatting contained in the original R script. The Data profiling report is a summary and graphical presentation of the data exploration process for data analysis and model building, so that users could focus on understanding data and extracting insights. The report provides a summary of each variable and does data profiling.
Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America
Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.
Technoeconomic Opportunity Analysis for Local Power Generation in Falls City, Nebraska
Falls City is a small community in Nebraska interested in understanding how energy from local energy systems could support the community's economic development planning. To address the current community needs and address the future energy demand technical assistance conducted through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP) assessed the technical and economic opportunities of adding energy technologies to Falls City's municipally owned and operated electric utility system. The modeling performed considered the technical and economic feasibility of technologies using the System Advisor Model (SAM). The modeling explored three technology configurations using multiple years of historical weather and wholesale cost data (2015-2022 & a typical meteorological year), and two different wholesale escalation rates (0.3% and 2.5%). Wholesale energy prices were based on the Southwest Power Pool's (SPP) real-time energy market and the annual escalation rates of these rates based on historical SPP wholesale and national retail electricity price trends. Results from the modeling showed that at current CAPEX costs and SPP wholesale electricity costs no technology combination averaged across the scenarios run provide a positive net present value (NPV). External financial support, changes in market conditions, and additional revenue streams would help create more economically favorable projects. As conditions change re-evaluation may be necessary.
Weather responsive smart ventilation system using multiple optimization parameters
A smart ventilation system which uses outdoor temperature and moisture to optimize control of the system. The main principle is to shift ventilation from time periods that have large indoor-outdoor temperature and moisture differences to periods when these differences are smaller, and their energy and comfort impacts are expected to be less. Fan flow rates are reduced when the outside temperature and moisture falls outside of optimum levels, yet overall air exchange is maintained to ensure chronic and acute exposure to pollutants remains relative to best practice. Online weather and smart thermostat data can be used as control inputs, so no specific measurement devices are needed to control ventilation fans.
Acoustic Exposure to Turbine Operation Quantifies Risk to Bats at Commercial Wind Energy Facilities
ABSTRACT Turbine‐related bat mortality at commercial wind energy facilities may threaten populations of migratory tree‐roosting bat species in North America. Industry stakeholders and regulatory agencies alike are investigating strategies to reduce risk of population‐level consequences as the wind energy industry grows. Bats collide with turbines only when turbine rotors are spinning and curtailing turbine operation at low wind speeds can effectively reduce bat fatality rates. Nonetheless, few quantitative data exist to determine appropriate threshold wind speeds below which turbine operations should be curtailed. Carcass monitoring is labor‐intensive and does not provide information on factors linked to bat fatality rates on any scale finer than nightly. We tested whether acoustic bat data recorded at turbine nacelles could provide a more precise and sensitive measure of fatality risk to bats by analyzing acoustics, weather, turbine operation, and carcass data collected at 2 commercial wind energy facilities in West Virginia over 7 years. Each wind facility implemented several distinct curtailment treatments during our study, allowing us to compare fatality rates and acoustic bat activity across multiple operational strategies. We found that bat passes exposed to turbine operation explained close to 80% of the variation in carcass‐based estimates of bat fatality rates and accounted for significant variation in raw carcass counts per turbine and probability of finding bat carcasses during individual turbine searches. Conversely, bat activity occurring when turbines were not operating had little or no relationship to fatality rates. We also found that patterns in bat activity exposure could be predicted accurately among turbines and years. Our results demonstrate that measuring exposure of acoustic bat activity provides a quantitative basis for designing, evaluating, and adaptively managing curtailment strategies. This is an important advance towards using curtailment to reduce bat fatality rates strategically while allowing for increased generation of renewable energy. © 2021 The Authors. Wildlife Society Bulletin published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.
Aerobic respiration controls on shale weathering, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 2023: Dataset
This data package was generated in order to support the development of a deep-time weathering model and to assess the coupling between shale weathering and aerobic respiration in the paper “Aerobic respiration controls on shale weathering” by Stolze et al., Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta (2023). The package contains two csv files providing the average CO2(g) concentration profiles [ppm] and mineral concentration profiles [wt%], respectively. The CO2(g) concentration profiles were measured in the vicinity of the monitoring well PLM2 between January 2018 and April 2019. The gas samples were collected in the unsaturated zone to a depth of 1.52 m. The mineral concentration profiles were determined by X-Ray diffraction (XRD). The XRD measurements were performed on sub-core samples collected in the monitoring well PLM3 down to a depth of 7.01 m. The dataset additionally includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.Update on 2024-05-28: Revised versions of the CSV data files (CO2_data_GCA_Stolze_et_al_2023.csv and XRD_data_GCA_Stolze_et_al_2023.csv) were made to apply ESS-DIVE's CSV reporting format guidelines. Updated versions of the File Level Metadata (v2_20240528_flmd.csv) and Data Dictionary (v2_20240528_dd.csv) files were updated to reflect the changes made to the CSV files.
Predicting Power Outage During Extreme Weather with EAGLE-I and NWS Datasets
Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods can significantly disrupt power grid systems, leading to electrical outages that result in inconvenience, economic losses, and life-threatening situations. There is a growing need for a robust and precise predictive model to forecast power outages, which will help prioritize emergency response before, during, and after extreme weather events. In this paper, we introduce machine-learning models that predict power outage risk at the state level during and after extreme weather events. We jointly utilized two publicly available datasets: the U.S. historical power outage data collected by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I™) system, and the National Weather Service historical weather alert data sets. We highlight our initial result and discuss future work aimed at enhancing the model's robustness and accuracy for real-world applications.
WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset
WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, is a meteorological dataset providing high-resolution time series, including interannual variability and model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point to indicate ranges of possible wind speeds. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: (1) Numerical simulations of wind speed and other meteorological variables covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska, with high-resolution (5-minute [min], 2-kilometer [km]) data for 3 years (2018-2020): WTK-LED CONUS, WTK-LED Alaska. (2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratory covering North America, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km, hourly dataset covering 20 years (2001-2020): WTK-LED Climate. (3) Specific long-term, high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the U.S. coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset: NOW-23. The data for Hawaii include land-based data and are part of WTK-LED Hawaii. Because the accuracy of simulations from a mesoscale model, such as WRF, varies depending on the location and weather situation, and can reach up to several m/s for wind speed, we provide simulated wind speed uncertainty estimates to the community to be used in conjunction with the deterministic model simulations. This dataset was developed to satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have. Based on our validation results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED as shown in "WTK-LED Use Cases" resource below.
The Baltimore Community Weather Station Network: Filling the Urban Measurement Desert
Quantification and understanding of how heat, rainfall, and air quality vary within cities are needed to identify the area with the worst conditions, develop solutions to extreme weather, and assess the impact of proposed policies. However, neighborhood-level variability is not well quantified because there are few environmental measurement stations within cities. In Baltimore City, a community-based network of weather stations to address this issue has been developed through a partnership between universities, state agencies, and Baltimore residents. The weather stations are hosted by community partners, and the data collected are enabling the mapping of urban weather across the city and the testing of models and proposed mitigation strategies. In addition, the network provides direct community involvement, with resulting benefits of increased community engagement, education, and empowerment. Researchers have an opportunity to democratize the scientific process and ensure that local knowledge and lived experiences of city residents inform future decision-making. The approach could be used as a model for other cities that apply similar monitoring instruments for other environmental exposures.
Big Data Analytics for Long-Term Meteorological Observations at Hanford Site
A growing number of physical objects with embedded sensors with typically high volume and frequently updated data sets has accentuated the need to develop methodologies to extract useful information from big data for supporting decision making. This study applies a suite of data analytics and core principles of data science to characterize near real-time meteorological data with a focus on extreme weather events. To highlight the applicability of this work and make it more accessible from a risk management perspective, a foundation for a software platform with an intuitive Graphical User Interface (GUI) was developed to access and analyze data from a decommissioned nuclear production complex operated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE, Richland, USA). Exploratory data analysis (EDA), involving classical non-parametric statistics, and machine learning (ML) techniques, were used to develop statistical summaries and learn characteristic features of key weather patterns and signatures. The new approach and GUI provide key insights into using big data and ML to assist site operation related to safety management strategies for extreme weather events. Specifically, this work offers a practical guide to analyzing long-term meteorological data and highlights the integration of ML and classical statistics to applied risk and decision science.