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DOE OSTI2026

Multi-modal dynamic radiography using short-pulse laser-generated probe beams

Radiography is an important tool for the interrogation of dynamic experiments in the fields of dynamic properties of materials, and in condensed matter, high explosive, and high-energy-density physics. Multi-modal radiography advances the hypothesis that combining the information delivered by multiple radiographic modalities can lead to more constrained (improved) “reconstruction” of the scene than can be obtained from a single probe. We identify four modalities: multi-probe, time sequence, multi-view, and multi-messenger. Multi-probe radiography is a promising candidate for a next-generation dynamic radiographic facility. High-energy X-rays are the most frequently used probe for dynamic radiography, although recent developments show the utility of proton (pRad), electron (eRad), and neutron probe beams. Because each probing species interacts with material in the radiographic scene through quantitatively different mechanisms, each returns independent information about the scene, which can add extra constraints to the reconstruction process. How to conduct detailed, quantitative “co-analysis” of multiple data streams remains an area of active research. Multi-beam, short-pulse, laser-generated probes offer sufficient dose, an appropriate spectrum, and appropriate spatio-temporal resolution to produce high-quality dynamic radiographs. This paper reports on technology development to advance the state of the art of multi-modal/multi-probe radiography and the pursuit of both deterministic and inferential (AI/ML assisted) co-analysis methodologies to produce more constrained reconstructions from multi-modal data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of ceramic fuel powder packing fractions to support INFLUX

Triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS)-based structures show marked potential in novel nuclear reactor fuel designs, as their high surface area-to-volume ratio increases the efficiency of heat transfer out of the fuel, enabling safer, more innovative reactor designs. This milestone report addresses the role of dUO 2 powder processing route on the fill behavior of TPMS-based cladding shells to understand and advance the feasibility of manufacturing TPMS-based nuclear fuel forms. dUO 2 powder was processed through either a dry granulation route, varying consolidation pressure, or through milling, varying milling time, milling method and milled size distribution. The lowest tapped bulk densities (TBD), but best powder flowabilities, were obtained when testing unprocessed dUO 2 powder which was prone to self-agglomeration and formed low-density spheroids. The highest TBD and lowest flowabilities were obtained when using powder produced by hammer-milling dUO 2 powder to pass through a 200-mesh sieve, which led to particles with angular morphologies. Powder produced by dry granulation exhibited TBD that varied according to the consolidation pressure used to form the initial pellets and exhibited improved flowabilities when compared to hammer-milled material. Because of the large span of granule sizes formed as well as the irregular shape associated with the granules, a packing fraction of 0.69 was achieved, exceeding the analytical solution for random close packing of mono-sized spheres. TPMS polymer shells were loaded with unprocessed, granulated, and hammer-milled dUO 2 powders, and their qualitative packing behaviors were analyzed using x-ray computed tomography (xCT). TBDs calculated after loading TPMS polymer shells were 10-20% lower when compared to tapped bulk density measurements taken in a glass graduated cylinder, indicating a non-trivial impact on the tapped bulk density of either the TPMS channel size, TPMS channel surface material, powder cohesiveness, or a combination of the two parameters. A metallic zircaloy-4 TPMS shell will be loaded with hammer-milled dUO 2 powder upon receipt of the shell from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and shipped to Idaho National Labs (INL) for subsequent hot isostatic pressing (HIP) densification experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2026

Global Model Estimates of Atmospheric Al, Ca, Fe, Si, and Ti from Dust and Non-Dust Aerosols Informed by EMIT Surface Mineralogy and Evaluated Against Observations

Atmospheric deposition of micro-nutrients like Fe has been shown to be important for ocean biogeochemistry. The largest source of atmospheric Fe and other elements (e.g., Ca, Al, Si, and Ti) is desert dust, although there are significant non-dust sources in some regions. However, past estimates of these elements have been substantially uncertain due to limited information about the composition of the desert source regions. Here we use elemental distributions estimated from new Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) observations, which provide mineralogical composition at the surface of the Earth based on imaging spectroscopy measurements from the International Space Station. We add in other sources of these elements (anthropogenic and natural) and compare to a compilation of available surface concentration data from stations over land and from shipborne observations. Our results suggest that the modeled distribution is similar to available observations, but discrepancies still exist in both natural desert dust regions as well as regions dominated by anthropogenic sources. Global budgets for the elements Ca, Al, Fe, Si, and Ti suggest that desert dust remains the dominant source for these elements but anthropogenic or volcanic sources are also important for these elements. Changes in elemental distributions since preindustrial times were also estimated.

aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2026

Coma Physics of an Interstellar Object: JWST Spatial-Spectral Mapping of 3I/ATLAS

We report a survey of molecular emission from cometary volatiles using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) toward interstellar object 3I/ATLAS carried out on UT 2025 December 22 and 23 at a heliocentric distance (\rh{}) of $2.37-2.41$ au. These measurements of CO, \ce{CO2}, \ce{H2O}, \ce{CH3OH}, and \ce{CH4} sampled molecular chemistry in 3I/ATLAS as it receded from its encounter with our Sun and entered the vicinity of the \ce{H2O} ice line --- the region between \rh{} = $2-3$ au where the temperature becomes too low for H$_2$O to vigorously sublime and CO and \ce{CO2} begin to control the overall activity. CO was the most abundant molecule, followed by \ce{H2O} and \ce{CO2}, whose molecular abundances with respect to CO were $(40.5\pm3.1)\%$ and ($41.6\pm0.3)\%$, respectively. This work presents spatial-spectral maps of column density and rotational temperature as a function of distance from the nucleus for all detected species. The spatial distributions of both quantities were highly anisotropic for the apolar species in the coma of 3I/ATLAS, yet were more nearly symmetric for the polar molecules. These results demonstrate how volatiles were segregated in the nucleus ices of 3I/ATLAS and reveal heating and cooling mechanisms in its coma. Derived maps of the ortho-to-para ratio (OPR) for \ce{H2O} were flat with increasing distance from the nucleus and consistent with a coma-averaged value $\mathrm{OPR}=2.7\pm0.2$, slightly less than the expected equilibrium value of three.

Nathan X Roth↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unconventional solitonic high-temperature superfluorescence from perovskites

Fast thermal dephasing limits macroscopic quantum phenomena to cryogenic conditions and hinders their use at ambient temperatures. For electronic excitations in condensed media, dephasing is mediated by thermal lattice motion. Therefore, taming the lattice influence is essential for creating collective electronic quantum states at high temperatures. Although there are occasional reports of high-T c quantum effects across different platforms, it is unclear which lattice characteristics and electron–lattice interactions lead to macroscopically coherent electronic states in solids. Here we studied intensity fluctuations in the macroscopic polarization during the emergence of superfluorescence in a lead halide perovskite and showed that spontaneously synchronized polaronic lattice oscillations accompany collective electronic dipole emission. We further developed an effective field model and theoretically confirmed that exciton–lattice interactions lead to a new electronically and structurally entangled coherent extended solitonic state beyond a critical polaron density. The analysis shows a phase transition with two processes happening in tandem: incoherent disordered polaronic lattice deformations establish an order, while macroscopic quantum coherence among excitons simultaneously emerges. Recombination of excitons in this state culminates in superfluorescence at high temperatures. Our study establishes fundamental connections between the transient superfluorescence process observed after the impulsive excitation of perovskites and general equilibrium phase transitions achieved by thermal cooling. By identifying various electron–lattice interactions in the perovskite structure and their respective role in creating collectively coherent electronic effects in solids, our work provides unprecedented insight into the design and development of new materials that exhibit high-temperature macroscopic quantum phenomena.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Imaging a terahertz superfluid plasmon in a two-dimensional superconductor

The superconducting gap defines the fundamental energy scale for the emergence of dissipationless transport and collective phenomena in a superconductor. In layered high-temperature cuprate superconductors, in which the Cooper pairs are confined to weakly coupled two-dimensional (2D) copper–oxygen (CuO 2 ) planes, terahertz (THz) spectroscopy at subgap millielectronvolt (meV) energies has provided crucial insights into the collective superfluid response perpendicular to the superconducting layers. However, within the CuO 2 planes, the collective superfluid response manifests as plasmonic charge oscillations at energies far exceeding the superconducting gap, obscured by strong dissipation. Here, in this study, we present spectroscopic evidence of a below-gap, 2D superfluid plasmon in few-layer Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+x and spatially resolve its deeply subdiffractive THz electrodynamics. By placing the superconductor in the near field of a spintronic THz emitter, we reveal this distinct resonance—absent in bulk samples and observed only in the superconducting phase—and determine its plasmonic nature by mapping the geometric anisotropy and dispersion. Crucially, these measurements offer a direct view of the momentum-dependent and frequency-dependent superconducting transition in two dimensions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate

Soil microbes strongly influence the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool, which globally stores ~2,000 PgC. Specifically, the balance between microbial heterotrophic respiration (R H ), which degrades SOC, and plant–microbe interactions that stabilize SOC determines whether terrestrial ecosystems are a net source or sink of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Here, in this Review, we evaluate how climate change alters these competing processes. R H is approximately half of total soil respiration, at ~50 PgC yr −1 , with 70% occurring in topsoils. Warming accelerates microbial metabolism, with a 10 °C temperature increase estimated to raise R H by ~50%, an effect that is particularly strong in Arctic soils. Warming also reduces soil moisture, further modulating R H , which responds nonlinearly to soil moisture, being limited by saturation and desiccation and meeting a maximum at intermediate levels. Consequently, R H is highly sensitive to future precipitation changes and drought. However, soil management strategies could enhance SOC stocks and persistence under climate change. Bacterial and fungal inoculants can promote SOC production and stabilization, while deep-rooting plants increase SOC inputs to deeper layers that experience lower R H . Agricultural practices and biochar amendments can also enhance SOC and reduce R H . Expanding field trials across regions, climates and soil types would improve empirical understanding of these responses and support better representation of R H in predictive models, enabling more accurate assessments of climate impacts on SOC storage.

Jansson, Janet K. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

NASA NTRS1996

Ka-Band Monopulse Antenna-Pointing Systems Analysis and Simulation

NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN) has been using both 70-m and 34-m reflector antennas to communicate with spacecraft at S-band (2.3 GHz) and X-band (8.45 GHz). To improve the quality of telecommunication and to meet future mission requirements, JPL has been developing 34-m Ka-band (32-GHz) beamwave guide antennas. Presently, antenna pointing operates in either the open-loop mode with blind pointing using navigation predicts or the closed-loop mode with conical scan (conscan). Pointing accuracy under normal conscan operating conditions is in the neighborhood of 5 mdeg. This is acceptable at S- and X-bands, but not enough at Ka-band. Due to the narrow beamwidth at Ka-band, it is important to improve pointing accuracy significantly (approx. 2 mdeg). Monopulse antenna tracking is one scheme being developed to meet the stringent pointing-accuracy requirement at Ka-band. Other advantages of monopulse tracking include low sensitivity to signal amplitude fluctuations as well as single-pulse processing for acquisition and tracking. This article presents system modeling, signal processing, simulation, and implementation of Ka-band monopulse tracking feed for antennas in NASA/DSN ground stations.

V Y Lo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reaction Optimization for Enzymatic Deconstruction of Industrially Relevant Nylon Composites

Plastics such as polyamides (PAs) possess unique physicochemical properties that make them indispensable in modern society. However, their energy‐intensive production and challenging end‐of‐life management highlight the urgent need for efficient recycling or remanufacturing solutions. Enzymatic depolymerization offers a promising route toward circular recycling, yet remains constrained by limited enzyme characterization, lack of validation under industrially relevant conditions and substrates, and overall performance. Here, we optimized the reaction conditions for three recently discovered nylon‐degrading enzymes. One of them, Nyl12, achieved product titers with PA6 and PA66 that exceed previously reported values, without enzyme engineering or substrate pretreatment. We further demonstrated the scalability of the process and its application to complex PA‐based materials used in microelectronic components. Analysis of substrate features, including surface area and particle size, revealed key parameters governing enzymatic activity and provided a framework for future pretreatment and process optimization efforts. In combination, these efforts provide a new benchmark for enzymatic nylon recycling.

nylon↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tautomerism induces bending and twisting of biogenic crystals

Understanding and exploiting material flexibility through phenomena such as the bending and twisting of molecular crystals has been a subject of increased interest owing to the number of applications that benefit from these properties, such as optoelectronics, mechanophotonics, soft robotics, and smart sensors. Here, we report the growth of spontaneously bent and twisted ammonium urate crystals induced by the keto–enol tautomerism of the urate molecule. The major tautomer is native to biogenic crystals, whereas the minor tautomer functions as an effective crystal growth modifier to induce naturally bent and twisted ammonium urate crystals. We show that the degree of curvature can be tailored based on the judicious selection of growth conditions. A combination of state-of-the-art microscopy and spectroscopy techniques are used to characterize the origin of bending. Spatially resolved nano-electron diffraction and high-resolution electron microscopy of naturally bent crystals show nearly single crystallinity with local lattice deformations generated by a combination of screw and edge dislocations. These observations are consistent with photoinduced force microscopy and contact resonance atomic force microscopy, which confirmed spatially resolved changes in the intermolecular interactions and the mechanical properties throughout the cross-sectional and axial regions of bent crystals. A mechanism of bending involving the generation of regionally specific dislocations is proposed as an alternative to more commonly reported models. These findings highlight a unique characteristic of tautomeric crystals that may have broader implications for other biogenic materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Unified Beam-Dynamics and Hardware Design Framework for Hybrid Nonlinear-Kicker Injection in NSLS-II

Nonlinear kickers (NLKs) enable off-axis injection in ultralow-emittance storage rings by providing a strong kick to the injected beam while remaining nearly transparent to the stored beam. In hybrid schemes, a conventional four-kicker bump defines the injected trajectory, and the NLK reduces the first-turn action under constrained beam offset and optics conditions. Effective operation additionally requires stable and reproducible first-turn injection trajectories. We develop a compact action–angle framework that expresses NLK dynamics in terms of Courant–Snyder invariants and yields an analytical bound on achievable action reduction. This formulation provides direct design rules for NLK placement, phase advance, injected-beam offset, and kicker field profile. Within this framework, we identify the 8-wire NLK as a practical baseline and extend its design by relaxing the square-geometry constraint, enabling inward shifting of the off-axis field peak while preserving on-axis field and gradient cancellation. Application to the NSLS-II lattice shows how aperture, pulsed-power, and mechanical constraints combine to determine a coupled design solution. Multi-turn tracking confirms that candidate NLK locations maintain sufficient stay-clear (aperture-clearance) margin, while the optimized wire geometry reduces the required current and Lorentz force load. The results establish a unified approach for NLK-assisted injection design and provide a practical pathway for upgrades in diffraction-limited storage rings.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electron Microscopy Studies of Soft Nanomaterials

This review highlights recent efforts on applying electron microscopy (EM) to soft (including biological) nanomaterials. We will show how developments of both the hardware and software of EM have enabled new insights into the formation, assembly, and functioning (e.g., energy conversion and storage, phonon/photon modulation) of these materials by providing shape, size, phase, structural, and chemical information at the nanometer or higher spatial resolution. Specifically, we first discuss standard real-space two-dimensional imaging and analytical techniques which are offered conveniently by microscopes without special holders or advanced beam technology. The discussion is then extended to recent advancements, including visualizing three-dimensional morphology of soft nanomaterials using electron tomography and its variations, identifying local structure and strain by electron diffraction, and recording motions and transformation by in situ EM. On these advancements, we cover state-of-the-art technologies designed for overcoming the technical barriers for EM to characterize soft materials as well as representative application examples. Here, the even more recent integration of machine learning and its impacts on EM are also discussed in detail. With our perspectives of future opportunities offered at the end, we expect this review to inspire and stimulate more efforts in developing and utilizing EM-based characterization methods for soft nanomaterials at the atomic to nanometer length scales in academic research and industrial applications.

Imaging↗

DOE OSTI2026

The impact of metastability on the high-pressure behavior of cerium

The structures adopted by solids under pressure are often assumed to reflect thermodynamic equilibrium, yet in many materials phase selection is strongly influenced by kinetic pathways and microstructural inheritance. Elemental cerium (Ce) exemplifies this challenge, with decades of conflicting reports describing different high-pressure crystal structures emerging under nominally identical conditions. Here we use neutron diffraction from large ( ~ 60 mm 3 ) sample volumes to follow the structural evolution in ultra-high-purity Ce during controlled pressure-temperature cycling between 85 and 295 K and up to 8 GPa. We find that the crystal structure formed at high pressure depends on the compression pathway: slow compression ( ~ 0.25 GPa hr −1 ) at room temperature favors an orthorhombic phase (α'), whereas slow ( ~ 0.25 GPa hr −1 ) and also moderately faster ( ~ 0.5 GPa hr −1 ) compression at low temperature stabilizes a pure monoclinic phase (α"). The low-temperature phase persists metastably over a wide temperature range but transforms irreversibly upon heating above ~ 280 K, or modest pressure cycling. Remarkably, the lower-pressure γ phase remains trapped far beyond the expected stability field, persisting to the highest pressures studied. These observations show that phase selection in Ce is governed by kinetics and microstructural memory rather than equilibrium thermodynamics or sample morphology alone, establishing path dependence as a defining feature of its high-pressure behavior.

Ridley, Christopher J. [Oak Ridge National Laborat↗

NASA NTRS1989

NASA flight cell and battery issues

The author presents the important battery and cell problems, encompassing both test failures and accidents, which were encountered during the past year. Practical issues facing programs, which have to be considered in the development of a battery program strategy, are addressed. The problems of one program, the GRO (Gamma Ray Observatory), during the past year are focused on to illustrate the fundamental types of battery problems that occur. Problems encountered by other programs are briefly mentioned to complete the accounting. Two major categories of issues are defined, namely, whose which are quality and design related, i.e., problems having inherent manufacturing-process-related aspects with an impact on cell reliability, and these which are accident triggered or man induced, i.e., those operational issues having an impact on battery and cell reliability.

Schulze, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS2019

The operational environment and rotational acceleration of asteroid (101955) Bennu from OSIRIS-REx observations

During its approach to asteroid (101955) Bennu, NASA's Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft surveyed Bennu's immediate environment, photometric properties, and rotation state. Discovery of a dusty environment, a natural satellite, or unexpected asteroid characteristics would have had consequences for the mission's safety and observation strategy. Here we show that spacecraft observations during this period were highly sensitive to satellites (sub-meter scale) but reveal none, although later navigational images indicate that further investigation is needed. We constrain average dust production in September 2018 from Bennu's surface to an upper limit of 150g s −1 averaged over 34 min. Bennu's disk-integrated photometric phase function validates measurements from the pre-encounter astronomical campaign. We demonstrate that Bennu's rotation rate is accelerating continuously at 3.63+- 0.52 x10 −6 degrees A day -2 , likely due to the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect, with evolutionary implications.

Carl William Hergenrother↗

DOE OSTI2025

A topological superconductor tuned by electronic correlations

A topological superconductor, characterized by either a chiral order parameter or a topological surface state in proximity to bulk superconductivity, is foundational to topological quantum computing. A key open challenge is whether electron-electron interactions can tune such topological superconducting phases. Here, we provide experimental signatures of a unique topological superconducting phase in competition with electronic correlations in 10-unit-cell thick FeTe x Se 1-x films grown on SrTiO 3 substrates. When the Te content x exceeds 0.7, we observe a topological transition marked by the emergence of a superconducting surface state. Near the FeTe limit, the system undergoes another transition where the surface state disappears, and superconductivity is suppressed. Theory suggests that electron-electron interactions in the odd-parity xy− band drives this second topological transition. The flattening and eventual decoherence of d xy -derived bands track the superconducting dome, linking correlation effects directly to superconducting coherent transport. Our work establishes many-body electronic correlations as a sensitive knob for tuning topology and superconductivity, offering a pathway to engineer new topological phases in correlated materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2026

Mechanical Properties of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composites Exposed to Cryogenic Conditions and Space Radiation via Simulation and Testing

As NASA missions extend beyond low Earth orbit, increasing reliance is placed on carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites for spacecraft structures where mass efficiency, durability, and long-term reliability are critical. In service, these materials are subjected to a combination of ultraviolet radiation, vacuum, ionizing radiation, atomic oxygen, and extreme thermal excursions under sustained mechanical loading. Flight systems such as the Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Dragon employ external composite structures that will experience these environments for extended durations. Although prior spaceflight and ground studies have reported limited changes in bulk mechanical properties, the synergistic effects of these environments on composite microstructure, particularly at the fiber matrix interphase, remain insufficiently characterized and represent a potential qualification and reliability risk. This study investigates the effects of short-term cryogenic exposure on a radiation shielding carbon epoxy composite, SC2020, as a ground-based analog for space relevant thermal extremes. The SC2020 material system has previously flown on the International Space Station under the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) program. Composite specimens were exposed to liquid nitrogen for 6 and 24 hours and evaluated using a multiscale characterization framework that combined ASTM D3039 tensile testing, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) based interphase analysis, and helium gas permeability measurements. Tensile testing showed no statistically significant or permanent degradation in global strength or modulus following cryogenic exposure. In contrast, AFM measurements revealed reductions in interphase modulus, weakened adhesion, and increased nanoscale heterogeneity, indicating localized degradation mechanisms not captured by conventional bulk testing. Gas permeability measurements showed a progressive increase in helium diffusion with exposure duration, consistent with micro-void formation or partial interfacial debonding. The results indicate that cryogenic exposure initiates degradation at the fiber matrix interphase while leaving global mechanical properties largely unchanged over short durations. These findings underscore the importance of multiscale diagnostics for identifying early-stage damage mechanisms that may influence long term performance and qualification margins for spaceflight composite structures. The data presented establish a cryogenic baseline for comparison with forthcoming MISSE flight exposure results and support ongoing NASA Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) efforts aimed at improving composite qualification methodologies, risk assessment, and reliability prediction for space environments.

composite reliability↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗