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Securing The Future: 2026 Manufacturing & Critical Infrastructure Threat Landscape

This report outlines the current state of manufacturing weaknesses introduced by the complexities of modern environments, including cloud services and Internet of Things (IoT) devices, with particular attention paid to the unique vulnerabilities encountered by SMMs. It also highlights CyManII’s strategic initiatives and collaborative solutions to mitigate these risks and strengthen the cybersecurity posture of the manufacturing ecosystem. Utilizing data from 2025 to inform forward-looking mitigation strategies, this report provides manufacturers with a clear understanding of both current and emerging cybersecurity threats, as well as practical opportunities to strengthen their cyber ecosystems. The following sections detail key vulnerabilities and threat vectors, along with actionable mitigation strategies, many of which have been developed or piloted through CyManII-led efforts. A thorough understanding of these risks and mitigation strategies is essential for manufacturers seeking to strengthen the security and resilience of their manufacturing operations.

3D Printing↗

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

T-Slide Linear Actuators

T-slide linear actuators use gear bearing differential epicyclical transmissions (GBDETs) to directly drive a linear rack, which, in turn, performs the actuation. Conventional systems use a rotary power source in conjunction with a nut and screw to provide linear motion. Non-back-drive properties of GBDETs make the new actuator more direct and simpler. Versions of this approach will serve as a long-stroke, ultra-precision, position actuator for NASA science instruments, and as a rugged, linear actuator for NASA deployment duties. The T slide can operate effectively in the presence of side forces and torques. Versions of the actuator can perform ultra-precision positioning. A basic T-slide actuator is a long-stroke, rack-and-pinion linear actuator that, typically, consists of a T-slide, several idlers, a transmission to drive the slide (powered by an electric motor) and a housing that holds the entire assembly. The actuator is driven by gear action on its top surface, and is guided and constrained by gear-bearing idlers on its other two parallel surfaces. The geometry, implemented with gear-bearing technology, is particularly effective. An electronic motor operating through a GBDET can directly drive the T slide against large loads, as a rack and pinion linear actuator, with no break and no danger of back driving. The actuator drives the slide into position and stops. The slide holes position with power off and no brake, regardless of load. With the T slide configuration, this GBDET has an entire T-gear surface on which to operate. The GB idlers coupling the other two T slide parallel surfaces to their housing counterpart surfaces provide constraints in five degrees-of-freedom and rolling friction in the direction of actuation. Multiple GB idlers provide roller bearing strength sufficient to support efficient, rolling friction movement, even in the presence of large, resisting forces. T-slide actuators can be controlled using the combination of an off-the-shelf, electric servomotor, a motor angle resolution sensor (typically an encoder or resolver), and microprocessor-based intelligent software. In applications requiring precision positioning, it may be necessary to add strain gauges to the T-slide housing. Existing sensory- interactive motion control art will work for T slides. For open-loop positioning, a stepping motor emulation technique can be used.

Vranish, John↗

A Modular and Transferable Reinforcement Learning Framework for the Fleet Rebalancing Problem

Mobility on demand (MoD) systems show great promise in realizing flexible and efficient urban transportation. However, significant technical challenges arise from operational decision making associated with MoD vehicle dispatch and fleet rebalancing. For this reason, operators tend to employ simplified algorithms that have been demonstrated to work well in a particular setting. To help bridge the gap between novel and existing methods, we propose a modular framework for fleet rebalancing based on model-free reinforcement learning (RL) that can leverage an existing dispatch method to minimize system cost. In particular, by treating dispatch as part of the environment dynamics, a centralized agent can learn to intermittently direct the dispatcher to reposition free vehicles and mitigate against fleet imbalance. We formulate RL state and action spaces as distributions over a grid partitioning of the operating area, making the framework scalable and avoiding the complexities associated with multiagent RL. Numerical experiments, using real-world trip and network data, demonstrate that RL reduces waiting time by 28% to 38% for the same-day evaluation, 17% to 44% for cross-day evaluation, and 22% to 25% for cross-season evaluation compared with no rebalancing scenarios. This approach has several distinct advantages over baseline methods including: improved system cost; high degree of adaptability to the selected dispatch method; and the ability to perform scale-invariant transfer learning between problem instances with similar vehicle and request distributions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Self-organization via active exploration in robotic applications

We describe a neural network based robotic system. Unlike traditional robotic systems, our approach focussed on non-stationary problems. We indicate that self-organization capability is necessary for any system to operate successfully in a non-stationary environment. We suggest that self-organization should be based on an active exploration process. We investigated neural architectures having novelty sensitivity, selective attention, reinforcement learning, habit formation, flexible criteria categorization properties and analyzed the resulting behavior (consisting of an intelligent initiation of exploration) by computer simulations. While various computer vision researchers acknowledged recently the importance of active processes (Swain and Stricker, 1991), the proposed approaches within the new framework still suffer from a lack of self-organization (Aloimonos and Bandyopadhyay, 1987; Bajcsy, 1988). A self-organizing, neural network based robot (MAVIN) has been recently proposed (Baloch and Waxman, 1991). This robot has the capability of position, size rotation invariant pattern categorization, recognition and pavlovian conditioning. Our robot does not have initially invariant processing properties. The reason for this is the emphasis we put on active exploration. We maintain the point of view that such invariant properties emerge from an internalization of exploratory sensory-motor activity. Rather than coding the equilibria of such mental capabilities, we are seeking to capture its dynamics to understand on the one hand how the emergence of such invariances is possible and on the other hand the dynamics that lead to these invariances. The second point is crucial for an adaptive robot to acquire new invariances in non-stationary environments, as demonstrated by the inverting glass experiments of Helmholtz. We will introduce Pavlovian conditioning circuits in our future work for the precise objective of achieving the generation, coordination, and internalization of sequence of actions.

Ogmen, H.↗

A reinforcement learning approach to long-horizon operations, health, and maintenance supervisory control of advanced energy systems

In this work, we develop a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach to the supervisory control problem for advanced energy systems, such as novel nuclear reactors and other demand-driven, mission-critical, and component-health-sensitive energy plants. The inclusive problem landscape considered captures the stochastic confluence of plant performance, component health evolution, power demand from the grid, diverse maintenance actions, and operator-defined goals and constraints, all considered over meaningfully long-enough reasoning horizons. Key aspects of the proposed approach are a receding horizon control-inspired technique dictating time- or event-triggered supervisory policy (re-)constructions, as well as additional capability-enabling contributions such as timescale compression, to handle long reasoning horizons and uncertainty in parts of the problem, and practical yet demonstrably-effective handling of hybrid action spaces with continuous and discrete decision variables. The resulting algorithm consists of a simulation-based RL agent constructing stochastic supervisory control policies over nontrivial action spaces and for long horizons, applying the learned policy to the system for a much shorter interval, and perpetually repeating, to construct the next long-horizon policy. That next policy will only be applied, again, for a short interval, yet originally far-in-time events move progressively closer, their associated uncertainty decreases, and new events and aspects enter the reasoning horizon. The proposed methodology bridges fundamental receding horizon concepts with the unequivocally stronger and more scalable reasoning of contemporary RL. Numerical examples using Soft Actor–Critic Deep RL illustrate the operation and efficacy of the proposed technique for a power plant tasked with health-aware load following missions in a dynamic electricity market landscape.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dendritic Computing with Multigate Ferroelectric Field-Effect Transistors

Although inspired by neuronal systems in the brain, artificial neural networks generally employ point-neurons, which offer computational complexity far less than that of their biological counterparts. Neurons have dendritic arbors that connect to different sets of synapses and offer local nonlinear accumulation – playing a pivotal role in processing and learning. Inspired by this, we propose a novel neuron design based on a multigate ferroelectric field-effect transistor that mimics dendrites. It leverages ferroelectric nonlinearity for local computations within dendritic branches while utilizing the transistor action to generate the neuronal output. The branched architecture enables smaller crossbar arrays in hardware integration, improving efficiency. Using an experimentally calibrated device-circuit-algorithm cosimulation framework, we demonstrate that networks incorporating our dendritic neurons achieve superior performance compared to much larger networks without dendrites (∼ 17× fewer trainable weight parameters). These findings suggest that dendritic hardware can significantly improve computational efficiency and learning capacity of neuromorphic systems optimized for edge applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to Enhance Mission Design and Operations of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO)

One key aspect in the development of HWO is the early deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to enhance mission science and operations. Our subtask group is part of the HWO AI/ML working group and focuses on AI and ML for mission operations. Our task group seeks to educate other HWO working groups about AI and ML capabilities for mission operations, investigate how to bridge technology gaps, and enable new capabilities particularly in the areas of observational scheduling, instrument health monitoring, and downlink operations. We focus on mission tasking / scheduling both for mission analysis in development and operations. AI and ML for mission scheduling includes: tools to support proposal calls and review, ensuring fairness in calls for proposals, community peer reviews and ease workloads, as well as in-flight and ground software development (e.g., using natural language processing (NLP) to support process automation from requirements). AI and ML for the mission’s development and operations include 1) anomaly detection and prediction (from onboard and ground based tools) to monitor the spacecraft’s health, 2) ground-based automated scheduling for mission operations including long-term and short-term planning and maintenance, and 3) flight system flexible execution (as flight proven for Spitzer and JWST) to enable robust execution despite execution variations, and 4) data analysis for prioritization (e.g., real-time data evaluation leading to autonomous actions and adjustments, high-priority identification, onboard data compression, etc.). Incorporation of ML and AI will enable HWO to address the major science questions related to exoplanet characterization, general astrophysics, and solar system exploration and also extend the boundaries of space mission technologies.

Mark Moussa↗

Safety in Artificial Intelligence: Challenges and Opportunities for the U.S. National Labs and Beyond

This report discusses the importance of the critical and underexplored topic of artificial intelligence (AI) safety, as highlighted during the “Strategy Alignment on AI Safety” workshop convened at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in April 2024. Through a summary of keynote talks, panel discussions, and breakout sessions, world-leading AI safety experts from academic, industry, national labs, and government agencies clearly agree on the need for and importance of large-scale investments for research and capabilities in AI safety. With the field innovating at unprecedented rates, there is increasing urgency to develop novel evaluation methodologies that allow full considerations of risks/threats of AI technologies in different domains. Quantitative metrics and effective methodologies that can evaluate and audit the “safeness” of how a given AI technology is trained, deployed, or regulated are, at best, nascent for certain scenarios or, more commonly, nonexistent. This maturation gap presents the possibility of serious threats to national security, and further inaction may have serious consequences. Additionally, the gap between the public’s and research community’s perceptions of AI risks/rewards is significant. While numerous voices from the AI community have expressed concern that the risks could be so high that future AI systems could inflict extinction-level damage to humanity if deployed incorrectly, the public largely is aware only of risk in low-impact scenarios. This discrepancy highlights the crucial need for researchers to articulate to governmental bodies what, why, and when various AI risks matter as part of motivating funding requests. Thus, the call to action for this community is to pursue AI safety as a “Big Science” project on a scale comparable to the Manhattan Project. High risks and high payoffs are on the table, but safe AI is a fast-moving target, and large-scale investments are needed to guide development of this technology in a responsible way. We highlight the need for a multilayered solution combining the development of new methods and algorithmic approaches to mitigate threats with an active participation of the government(s) in setting high industry standards and regulations based on state-of-the-art technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories have served as leading institutions for scientific innovation in the U.S. for more than 70 years. Drawing on their expertise in the AI community and their history of safeguarding critical and sensitive information, and as we look to the future, national labs are the best choice for evaluating and safeguarding AI technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗

Machine learning model inputs, outputs, and scripts associated with “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions” (Malhotra et al., in prep). This effort was designed following ICON (integrated, coordinated, open, and networked) principles to facilitate a model-experiment (ModEx) iteration approach, leveraging crowdsourced sampling across the contiguous United States (CONUS). New machine learning models were created every month to guide sampling locations. Data from the resulting samples were used to test and rebuild the machine learning models for the next round of sampling guidance. Associated sediment and water geochemistry and in situ sensor data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1923689, https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1729719, and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1603775. This data package is associated with two GitHub repositories found at https://github.com/parallelworks/dynamic-learning-rivers and https://github.com/WHONDRS-Hub/ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes two file-level metadata (FLMD) files that describes each file and two data dictionaries (DD) that describe all column/row headers and variable definitions. This data package consists of two main folders (1) dynamic-learning-rivers and (2) ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript which contain snapshots of the associated GitHub repositories. The input data, output data, and machine learning models used to guide sampling locations are within dynamic-learning-rivers. The folder is organized into five top-level directories: (1) “input_data” holds the training data for the ML models; (2) “ml_models” holds machine learning (ML) models trained on the data in “input_data”; (3) “examples” contains files for direct experimentation with the machine learning model, including scripts for setting up “hindcast” run; (4) “scripts” contains data preprocessing and postprocessing scripts and intermediate results specific to this data set that bookend the ML workflow; and (5) “output_data” holds the overall results of the ML model on that branch. Each trained ML model resides on its own branch in the repository; this means that inputs and outputs can be different branch-to-branch. There is also one hidden directory “.github/workflows”. This hidden directory contains information for how to run the ML workflow as an end-to-end automated GitHub Action but it is not needed for reusing the ML models archived here. Please see the top-level README.md in the GitHub repository for more details on the automation. The scripts and data used to create figures in the manuscript are within ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. The folder is organized into four folders which contain the scripts, data, and pdf for each figure. Within the “fig-model-score-evolution” folder, there is a folder called “intermediate_branch_data” which contains some intermediate files pulled from dynamic-learning-rivers and reorganized to easily integrate into the workflows. NOTE: THIS FOLDER INCLUDES THE FILES AT THE POINT OF PAPER SUBMISSION. IT WILL BE UPDATED ONCE THE PAPER IS ACCEPTED WITH ANY REVISIONS AND WILL INCLUDE A DD/FLMD AT THAT POINT. We thank the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Cowiche Canyon Conservatory, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission (Scientific Research Permit #210901), and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation for access to field locations where the samples labeled “SSS” were collected. We also thank the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview. WHONDRS consortium members were asked to provide any acknowledgments for the collection of samples labeled “CM” and the following is a list of acknowledgments that were submitted with their corresponding Site IDs: (MART) Research activities were conducted in part on the Wind River Experimental Forest within the Gifford Pinchot National Forest; (MP- 100379) Philadelphia is part of Lenapehoking, the ancestral homelands of the Lenape peoples; (MP-102398) Land surveyed is the ancestral homelands of the Nookhose'iinenno (Arapaho), Tsis tsis'tas (Cheyenne), and Nuuchu (Ute); (MP-100749 and MP- 100747) Georgia Coastal Ecosystem LTER, OCE-1832178; (SP-70 and SP-72) Eastern Shoshone, Shoshone-Bannock; (MP- 102944) Funded by Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board. On the traditional lands of the Confederated Tribes of the Siletz, Confederated Tribes of the Grand Rhonde, and the Clatsop-Nehalem Confederated Tribe; (MP- 100607) Holiday Creek is located on the traditional territory of the Monacan Indian Nation; (SP-45) Lafayette Blue Springs State Park; (MP-102420) NSF DEB-2016749; (MP-100019) New Hampshire Agriculture Experiment Station; (SP-35) Rayonier (land owner; https://www.rayonier.com/); (MP- 101276) US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Subsurface Biogeochemical Research, Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 103224) Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 101584) Traditional lands of the Oceti Sakowin (Dakota, Lakota, Nakoda) and Anishinaabe Peoples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Big Data For Operation and Maintenance Cost Reduction

The purpose of this research is to develop a first-of-a-kind framework for integrating Big Data capability into the daily activities of our current fleet of nuclear power plants. Big Data is traditionally defined as data sets with high volume, velocity, and heterogeneity, and the existing Big Data analytics capabilities are now widely popular in fields such as finance, weather, e-commerce, healthcare and sports. In the nuclear industry, while the volume and velocity of data may present computational challenges for existing analytics capabilities, data heterogeneity are seen to present the major challenge. This research project mainly focuses on incorporating the wide range of data heterogeneities in nuclear power plants into an integrated Big Data Analytics capability. The primary end-product of this project is a Big Data framework that is capable of dealing with the large volume and heterogeneity of the data found in nuclear power plants to extract timely and valuable information on equipment performance. The framework can generate system insights that are actionable relations between measurable impacts and the corresponding maintenance action plans and enable optimization of plant operation and maintenance based on the extracted information. The developed framework is capable of handling heterogeneous data including both image data and time-series sensor data. Specifically, this developed framework includes the following components. The first component is an overarching maintenance ontology which includes system insights required by maintenance optimization. The maintenance ontology interacts with other components in the developed framework. The second component handles Piping & Instrumentation Diagram (P&ID) data. It can be used to extract system components and their relations automatically from the P&IDs. This extracted information is stored in the first component, i.e., maintenance ontology, and is also used as input to the third component, i.e., a tool for generating the fault tree for the corresponding system. The generated fault tree in turn is stored in the ontology for assessing risk that is used as a criterion in maintenance policy optimization. The fourth component is a tool for inferring the parameters in the Markov degradation model for a nuclear system. It uses basic information from the ontology. The fifth component is a tool for assessing the degradation level using sensor measurement data, for example, pressure, flowrate. This tool can be used for determining corrective maintenance actions. The results obtained from components four and five are returned to the ontology. The sixth component of the framework is a tool for optimizing the maintenance policy for a nuclear system of interest. It takes certain basic information from the ontology, e.g., costs of maintenance actions and system failures, as input, and returns the optimal maintenance policy to the ontology. This tool can be used for determining predictive maintenance actions. A set of experiments have also been conducted to verify the algorithms developed in this project for nuclear system degradation monitoring. The experiments are based on four solenoid valves, similar to the ones used in nuclear power plants. The analyses based on the experimental data using two algorithms, i.e., the Randomized Window Decomposition (RWD) algorithm and the particle filtering algorithm, and the results are introduced in the report. The Big Data framework developed in this project can be used as a support tool in daily activities of plant operation and maintenance and will reduce current costs while maintaining or improving safety levels. Overall, the project will not only benefit existing reactors, however it will open new frontiers to realize the long overdue value of Big Data Analytics in the nuclear sphere.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Argonne Leadership Computing Facility: 2021 Operational Assessment Report

This Operational Assessment Report describes how the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) met or exceeded every one of its goals for calendar year (CY) 2021 as an advanced scientific computing center. In CY 2021, the ALCF operated its production resource, Theta, an Intel-based Cray XC40 system (11.7-petaflops) augmented with 24 NVIDIA DGX A100-based nodes (3.9-petaflops) that supports diverse workloads, integrating data analytics with artificial intelligence (AI) training and learning in a single platform. In 2021, we began deploying Polaris, our newest 40- petaflops system, and augmented this powerful testbed system with an additional 28 nodes to support the integration of real-time experiments and HPC resources. We also deployed our two largest storage systems yet, named Grand and Eagle, that will bring new services to our users and will power data-driven research for years to come. Last year, Theta delivered a total of 20.8 million node-hours to 16 Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE) projects and 7.2 million node-hours to ASCR Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC) projects (32 awarded during the 2020–2021 ALCC year and 17 awarded during the 2021–2022 ALCC year), as well as substantial support to Director’s Discretionary (DD) projects (5.5 million node-hours). As Table ES.1 shows, Theta performed exceptionally well in terms of overall availability (95.1 percent), scheduled availability (99.4 percent), and utilization (98.1 percent; Table 2.1). As of the submission date of this document, ALCF’s user community has published 249 papers in high-quality, peer-reviewed journals and technical proceedings. At the 2021 International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis (SC’21), Argonne researchers won two HPCwire Readers’ Choice Awards and were part of a Gordon Bell Prize finalist team recognized for developing an AI-enabled, multi-resolution simulation framework for studying complex biomolecular machines. Their framework was used to observe the SARS-CoV-2 replication-transcription machinery in action, by directly integrating experimental data. ALCF also provided a comprehensive program of high-performance computing (HPC) support services to help our community make productive use of the facility’s diverse and growing collection of resources. We are now entering the exascale era, with exascale machines being planned for national laboratories across the country, including Aurora at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) in 2023. ALCF researchers have been leading and guiding numerous strategic activities that will push the boundaries of what’s possible in computational science and engineering and allow us to deliver science on day one.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The adult literacy evaluator: An intelligent computer-aided training system for diagnosing adult illiterates

An important part of NASA's mission involves the secondary application of its technologies in the public and private sectors. One current application being developed is The Adult Literacy Evaluator, a simulation-based diagnostic tool designed to assess the operant literacy abilities of adults having difficulties in learning to read and write. Using ICAT system technology in addition to speech recognition, closed-captioned television (CCTV), live video and other state-of-the art graphics and storage capabilities, this project attempts to overcome the negative effects of adult literacy assessment by allowing the client to interact with an intelligent computer system which simulates real-life literacy activities and materials and which measures literacy performance in the actual context of its use. The specific objectives of the project are as follows: (1) To develop a simulation-based diagnostic tool to assess adults' prior knowledge about reading and writing processes in actual contexts of application; (2) to provide a profile of readers' strengths and weaknesses; and (3) to suggest instructional strategies and materials which can be used as a beginning point for remediation. In the first and developmental phase of the project, descriptions of literacy events and environments are being written and functional literacy documents analyzed for their components. Examples of literacy events and situations being considered included interactions with environmental print (e.g., billboards, street signs, commercial marquees, storefront logos, etc.), functional literacy materials (e.g., newspapers, magazines, telephone books, bills, receipts, etc.) and employment related communication (i.e., job descriptions, application forms, technical manuals, memorandums, newsletters, etc.). Each of these situations and materials is being analyzed for its literacy requirements in terms of written display (i.e., knowledge of printed forms and conventions), meaning demands (i.e., comprehension and word knowledge) and social situation. From these descriptions, scripts are being generated which define the interaction between the student, an on-screen guide and the simulated literacy environment. The proposed outcome of the Evaluator is a diagnostic profile which will present broad classifications of literacy behaviors across the major areas of metacognitive abilities, word recognition, vocabulary knowledge, comprehension and writing. From these classifications, suggestions for materials and strategies for instruction with which to begin corrective action will be made. The focus of the Literacy Evaluator will be essentially to provide an expert diagnosis and an interpretation of that assessment which then can be used by a human tutor to further design and individualize a remedial program as needed through the use of an authoring system.

Yaden, David B., Jr.↗

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

J Lemery↗

Two-Stage Wildlife Event Classification for Edge Deployment

Camera-based wildlife monitoring is often overwhelmed by non-target triggers and slowed by manual review or cloud-dependent inference, which can prevent timely intervention for high stakes human–wildlife conflicts. Our key contribution is a deployable, fully offline edge vision sensor that achieves near-real-time, highly accurate wildlife event classification by combining detector-based empty-image suppression with a lightweight classifier trained with a staged transfer-learning curriculum. Specifically, Stage 1 uses a pretrained You Only Look Once (YOLO)-family detector for permissive animal localization and empty-trigger suppression, and Stage 2 uses a lightweight EfficientNet-based binary classifier to confirm puma on detector crops and gate downstream actions. Our design is robust to low-quality nighttime monochrome imagery (motion blur, low contrast, illumination artifacts, and partial-body captures) and operates using commercially available components in connectivity-limited settings. In field deployments running since May 2025, end-to-end latency from camera trigger to action command is approximately 4 s. Ablation studies using a dataset of labeled wildlife images (pumas, not pumas) show that the two-stage approach substantially reduces false alarms in identifying pumas relative to a full-image classifier while maintaining high recall. On the held-out test set (N = 1434 events), the proposed two-stage cascade achieves precision 0.983, recall 0.975, F1 0.979, accuracy 0.986, and balanced accuracy 0.983, with only 8 false positives and 12 false negatives. The system can be easily adapted for other species, as demonstrated by rapid retraining of the second stage to classify ringtails. Downstream responses (e.g., notifications and optional audio/light outputs) provide flexible actuation capabilities that can be configured to support intervention.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the role of exchange of power and information signals in control and stability of the human-robot interaction

A human's ability to perform physical tasks is limited, not only by his intelligence, but by his physical strength. If, in an appropriate environment, a machine's mechanical power is closely integrated with a human arm's mechanical power under the control of the human intellect, the resulting system will be superior to a loosely integrated combination of a human and a fully automated robot. Therefore, we must develop a fundamental solution to the problem of 'extending' human mechanical power. The work presented here defines 'extenders' as a class of robot manipulators worn by humans to increase human mechanical strength, while the wearer's intellect remains the central control system for manipulating the extender. The human, in physical contact with the extender, exchanges power and information signals with the extender. The aim is to determine the fundamental building blocks of an intelligent controller, a controller which allows interaction between humans and a broad class of computer-controlled machines via simultaneous exchange of both power and information signals. The prevalent trend in automation has been to physically separate the human from the machine so the human must always send information signals via an intermediary device (e.g., joystick, pushbutton, light switch). Extenders, however are perfect examples of self-powered machines that are built and controlled for the optimal exchange of power and information signals with humans. The human wearing the extender is in physical contact with the machine, so power transfer is unavoidable and information signals from the human help to control the machine. Commands are transferred to the extender via the contact forces and the EMG signals between the wearer and the extender. The extender augments human motor ability without accepting any explicit commands: it accepts the EMG signals and the contact force between the person's arm and the extender, and the extender 'translates' them into a desired position. In this unique configuration, mechanical power transfer between the human and the extender occurs because the human is pushing against the extender. The extender transfers to the human's hand, in feedback fashion, a scaled-down version of the actual external load which the extender is manipulating. This natural feedback force on the human's hand allows him to 'feel' a modified version of the external forces on the extender. The information signals from the human (e.g., EMG signals) to the computer reflect human cognitive ability, and the power transfer between the human and the machine (e.g., physical interaction) reflects human physical ability. Thus the information transfer to the machine augments cognitive ability, and the power transfer augments motor ability. These two actions are coupled through the human cognitive/motor dynamic behavior. The goal is to derive the control rules for a class of computer-controlled machines that augment human physical and cognitive abilities in certain manipulative tasks.

Kazerooni, H.↗