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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Machine learning for the identification of phase transitions in interacting agent-based systems: A Desai-Zwanzig example

Deriving closed-form analytical expressions for reduced-order models, and judiciously choosing the closures leading to them, has long been the strategy of choice for studying phase- and noise-induced transitions for agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework that pinpoints phase transitions for an ABM—the Desai-Zwanzig model—in its mean-field limit, using a smaller number of variables than traditional closed-form models. To this end, we use the manifold learning algorithm Diffusion Maps to identify a parsimonious set of data-driven latent variables, and we show that they are in one-to-one correspondence with the expected theoretical order parameter of the ABM. We then utilize a deep learning framework to obtain a conformal reparametrization of the data-driven coordinates that facilitates, in our example, the identification of a single parameter-dependent ordinary differential equation (ODE) in these coordinates. Additionally, we identify this ODE through a residual neural network inspired by a numerical integration scheme (forward Euler). We then use the identified ODE—enabled through an odd symmetry transformation—to construct the bifurcation diagram exhibiting the phase transition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Multi-Variant Surveillance

Early detection of an emerging VOC (Variant-Of-Concern) is essential for effective preparedness for a disease like COVID-19. The spreading of an emerging VOC not only depends on the disease dynamics of itself but also depends on the state of the circulating variants and the susceptibility of the population. Resources for testing are typically quite limited, and a number of strategies have been considered for deploying them. However, it has been difficult to evaluate the performance of such strategies, especially higher order effects, and inequities, while incorporating constraints on these resources. Here, we develop an agent-based surveillance framework, Networkdetect, to understand the early warning system of an emerging VOC. Our framework allows us to incorporate various population heterogeneities and resource constraints.

Moon, Sifat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000344968809)↗

Agent-Based Simulation of Price-Demand Dynamics in Multi-Service Charging Station

As the adoption of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles grows, understanding how dynamic pricing strategies influence charging and refueling behaviors becomes crucial for optimizing local energy markets. This paper proposes a simulation-based analysis of a hydrogen-electricity integrated charging station that serves both types of vehicles. A multi-agent simulation framework is developed to model the interactions between vehicles and the station, incorporating price- and delay-sensitive behaviors in decision-making. The station can dynamically adjust energy prices, while vehicles optimize their charging or refueling choices based on their utility values. A series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate how electricity pricing, infrastructure capacity, and waiting behavior impact station performance. Results highlight that moderate electricity prices maximize user participation without sacrificing profit, infrastructure should be right-sized to demand to avoid over- or underutilization, and delay-toleration also affects service outcomes, which may reach the maximum service coverage at the threshold of 45 minutes.

Wang, Xudong [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗

The (R)evolution of Scientific Workflows in the Agentic AI Era: Towards Autonomous Science

Modern scientific discovery increasingly requires coordinating distributed facilities and heterogeneous resources, forcing researchers to act as manual workflow coordinators rather than scientists. Advances in AI leading to AI agents show exciting new opportunities that can accelerate scientific discovery by providing intelligence as a component in the ecosystem. However, it is unclear how this new capability would materialize and integrate in the real world. To address this, we propose a conceptual framework where workflows evolve along two dimensions which are intelligence (from static to intelligent) and composition (from single to swarm) to chart an evolutionary path from current workflow management systems to fully autonomous scientific laboratories. With these trajectories in mind, we present an architectural blueprint that can help the community take the next steps towards harnessing the opportunities in autonomous science with the potential for 100x discovery acceleration and transformational scientific workflows.

Shin, Woong [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000172077814)↗

Bayesian calibration of stochastic agent based model via random forest

SAND2024-11403O The Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent-based Model via Random Forest is a code that was developed in concurrence with an article by the same name that was written for a journal. The code reproduces simulation results and plots from the article. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

LeWRON: Learning ElectroWeak phase tRansitiON with agentic architecture

An agent to analyze electroweak phase transition. LeWRON turns a BSM model description or a reproduction target into a structured run: symbolic setup, effective-potential artifacts, finite-temperature machinery, generated model code, a scientific report, and an interactive exploration session. It keeps both machine-readable artifacts and human-readable notes, so a run can be resumed, audited, revised, and shared.

Wang, Isaac [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory↗

Reverse Logistics Ev Battery Recycling Agent Base Model

This represents the initial regional tier of the electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling agent base model. Through this model, we can ascertain the number of EV purchases at both the state and regional levels. We employ census data to develop a diverse household profile to inform decisions regarding the acquisition of new or used EVs. The number of EV purchases at the state level will affect the future demand for recycling, reuse, and repurposing of end-of-life EV batteries. Additionally, tax credits, EV rebate programs, and the financial capacity of households will influence the number of EV purchases, thereby further impacting the demand for EV battery recycling.

Alam, Lamia [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗

Modeling and Calibration of Supplier Selection Problem in Freight Agent-Based Simulations

Freight transportation modeling often struggles with data limitations, especially in accurately representing complex supplier selection processes and their impact on network flows. This research addresses this critical gap by developing a large-scale, calibrated agent-based model for supplier selection, complemented by a probabilistic heuristic for international shipments. Our approach integrates trade relationships between industry sectors, transportation costs, and a supplier-rating model adapted from existing literature. The model’s core objective is to minimize the discrepancy between modeled and observed commodity flows while ensuring a close match to regional shipping distance distributions. Implemented and tested across four major U.S. metropolitan areas—Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas–Fort Worth, and Los Angeles—the model demonstrates high fidelity in replicating observed freight patterns. Key findings reveal consistent alignment with national shipping distance trends and highlight significant spatial variations in commodity trade assignments and demand across the study regions. This behaviorally informed and transport-sensitive framework is designed to approximate real-world decision making, providing a robust tool for policymakers and planners to evaluate targeted interventions, assess infrastructure investments, and enhance supply chain resilience in the face of disruptions.

Ismael, Abdelrahman (ORCID:0000000303712110)↗

Surrogate modeling of Cellular-Potts agent-based models as a segmentation task using the U-Net neural network architecture

The Cellular-Potts model is a powerful and ubiquitous framework for developing computational models for simulating complex multicellular biological systems. Cellular-Potts models (CPMs) are often computationally expensive due to the explicit modeling of interactions among large numbers of individual model agents and diffusive fields described by partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) surrogate model using a U-Net architecture that accounts for periodic boundary conditions. We use this model to accelerate the evaluation of a mechanistic CPM previously used to investigate in vitro vasculogenesis. The surrogate model was trained to predict 100 computational steps ahead (Monte-Carlo steps, MCS), accelerating simulation evaluations by a factor of 562 times compared to single-core CPM code execution on CPU. Over short timescales of up to 3 recursive evaluations, or 300 MCS, our model captures the emergent behaviors demonstrated by the original Cellular-Potts model such as vessel sprouting, extension and anastomosis, and contraction of vascular lacunae. This approach demonstrates the potential for deep learning to serve as a step toward efficient surrogate models for CPM simulations, enabling faster evaluation of computationally expensive CPM simulations of biological processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Environmental associations of Ophidiomyces ophidiicola , the causative agent of ophidiomycosis in snakes

Emerging pathogenic fungi have become a topic of conservation concern due to declines observed in several host taxa. One emerging fungal pathogen, Ophidiomyces ophidiicola, is well documented as the causative agent of ophidiomycosis, otherwise known as snake fungal disease (SFD). O. ophidiicola has been found to cause disease in a variety of snake species across the United States, including the eastern massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a federally threatened rattlesnake species. Most work to date has involved detecting O. ophidiicola for diagnosis of infection through direct sampling of snakes, and attempts to detect O. ophidiicola in the abiotic environment to better understand its distribution, seasonality, and habitat associations are lacking. We collected topsoil and groundwater samples from four macrohabitat types across multiple seasons in northern Michigan at a site where Ophidiomyces infection has been confirmed in eastern massasauga. Using a quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay developed for O. ophidiicola, we detected Ophidiomyces DNA in topsoil but observed minimal to no detection in groundwater samples. Detection frequency did not differ between habitats, but samples grouped seasonally showed higher detection during mid-summer. We found no relationships of detection with hypothesized environmental correlates such as soil pH, temperature, or moisture content. Furthermore, the distribution of Ophidiomyces positive samples across the site was not linked to estimated space use of massasaugas. Our data suggests that season has some effect on the presence of Ophidiomyces. Differences in presence between habitats may exist but are likely more dependent on the time of sampling and currently uninvestigated soil or biotic parameters. These findings build on our understanding of Ophidiomyces ecology and epidemiology to help inform where and when snakes may be exposed to the fungus in the environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Organizational Resilience in the Context of Information Quality: An Agent-Based Simulation of Structural and Cognitive Influences

This study examines how organizational structure and stress levels affect decision-making with poor quality information. Using an agent-based model, it finds loosely structured organizations are timely but less effective at filtering bad information, while tightly structured ones are slower but better at filtering. The research highlights a trade-off between timeliness and robustness and suggests an optimal stress level for decision-making efficacy.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Model-form Error Correction using Universal Differential Equations for an Agent-Based Model of Infectious Disease

This report demonstrates universal differential equations (UDEs) as an approach to bridge the gap between ordinary differential equations (ODE) models and agent-based models (ABMs). Using UDE models as surrogates for ABMs allows us to preserve the foundational ODE that represents global disease dynamics while coupling it with a neural network model to approximate functions for the local behaviors of the ABM.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Verifying LLM generative agents reflect human behavior in contested information environments to effectively simulate disinformation campaigns (Proteus)

Disinformation poses a significant and evolving threat to today’s online environment. Individuals encounter challenges in detecting disinformation, subsequently influencing their behavior and decision-making processes. Our research examines the potential use of large language model (LLM) generative agents (LGAs) to replicate human behavior to better understand how disinformation is spread in online environments. Using human subjects research, we first investigate how personality traits, individual differences, and demographic factors relate to decision-making in simulated online disinformation environments. Then, we examine whether LGAs can effectively replicate human responses in the same simulated online environments when assigned personality traits, demographic characteristics and behavioral attributes. Our findings indicate that LGAs can align with human decisions in these scenarios; however, alignment is contingent upon scenario context, persona settings and LLM selection. Results provide valuable insights for methodology refinement in future research and in utilizing LGAs to model complex national security challenges such as disinformation campaigns.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Agent-based Modeling for the Multi-objective Optimization of Energy Production Pathways: Integrated Techno-Economics and Life Cycle Assessment

This project developed an integrated modeling framework to evaluate how purpose-grown bioenergy feedstocks could support large-scale sustainable aviation fuel production in the United States. Led by Colorado State University with project partners, the work combined geographically resolved analysis, techno-economic assessment, life cycle assessment, multi-objective optimization, and agent-based modeling to examine feedstock performance, deployment potential, land-use implications, and adoption dynamics. The overall goal was to identify practical and sustainable pathways for producing aviation fuel from feedstocks such as energy crops, woody crops, oilseeds, and algae while helping inform policy, investment, and research needs tied to national SAF goals. In essence, the project provides a systems-level assessment of the opportunities and constraints associated with scaling bioenergy-based aviation fuels in the U.S.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗