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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Photosynthetic decline in aging perennial grass is not fully explained by leaf nitrogen

Abstract Aging in perennial plants is traditionally observed in terms of changes in end-of-season biomass; however, the driving phenological and physiological changes are poorly understood. We found that 3-year-old (mature) stands of the perennial grass Miscanthus×giganteus had 19–30% lower Anet than 1-year-old M.×giganteus (juvenile) stands; 10–34% lower maximum carboxylation rates of Rubisco and 34% lower light-saturated Anet (Asat). These changes could be related to nitrogen (N) limitations, as mature plants were larger and had 14–34% lower leaf N on an area basis (Na) than juveniles. However, N fertilization restored Na to juvenile levels but compensated only 50% of the observed decline in leaf photosynthesis with age. Comparison of leaf photosynthesis per unit of leaf N (PNUE) showed that mature stands had at least 26% lower PNUE than juvenile stands across all N fertilization rates, suggesting that other factors, besides N, may be limiting photosynthesis in mature stands. We hypothesize that sink limitations in mature stands could be causing feedback inhibition of photosynthesis which is associated with the age-related decline in photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Latitudinal patterns of terrestrial phosphorus limitation over the globe

Abstract Phosphorus limitation on terrestrial plant growth is being incorporated into Earth system models. The global pattern of terrestrial phosphorus limitation, however, remains unstudied. Here, we examined the global‐scale latitudinal pattern of terrestrial phosphorus limitation by analysing a total of 1068 observations of aboveground plant production response to phosphorus additions at 351 forest, grassland or tundra sites that are distributed globally. The observed phosphorus‐addition effect varied greatly (either positive or negative), depending significantly upon fertilisation regime and production measure, but did not change significantly with latitude. In contrast, phosphorus‐addition effect standardised by fertilisation regime and production measure was consistently positive and decreased significantly with latitude. Latitudinal gradient in the standardised phosphorus‐addition effect was explained by several mechanisms involving substrate age, climate, vegetation type, edaphic properties and biochemical machinery. This study suggests that latitudinal pattern of terrestrial phosphorus limitation is jointly shaped by macro‐scale driving forces and the fundamental structure of life.

Hou, Enqing↗

Interplay of Electrode Heterogeneity and Lithium Plating

Lateral microstructure heterogeneity in anodes is known to induce nonuniform current density, state of charge, and lithium plating. This means that such electrode heterogeneity can limit the fast charging of lithium-ion batteries. In this work, a combination of experiments and simulation is employed to understand the effect of mm scale lateral heterogeneity on cell aging. A previously developed model was extended to efficiently simulate SEI formation and Li plating for independent regions of an electrode. The model consists of three parallel regions each described under a P2D framework and with a distinct ionic resistance and possibly active material loading. The results suggest that during fast charge when the active material is uniformly distributed across the three regions, the region with the highest resistance reaches the end of life sooner than the other regions. There is also positive feedback from Li metal filling the pores near the separator interface that further accelerates lithium plating. Lastly, when there is a non-uniform active material distribution associated with the ionic resistance heterogeneity, tight competition between regions can occur, leading to less overall lithium plating and plating that is more uniform between regions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Longitudinal Trajectories of Memory Performance in Patients with Early-Stage Breast Cancer

Background. While breast cancer and its treatments may affect cognition, the longitudinal trajectories of cognition among those receiving differing cancer treatment types remain poorly understood. Prior research suggests hippocampal-prefrontal cortex network integrity may influence cognition, although how this network predicts performance over time remains unclear. Methods. We conducted a prospective trial including 69 patients with early-stage breast cancer receiving adjuvant therapy and 12 controls. Longitudinal cognitive testing was conducted at four visits: pretreatment-baseline, 6-7 months, 14-15 months, and 23-24 months. Cognitive composite scores of episodic memory, executive functioning, and processing speed were assessed at each timepoint. Baseline structural MRI was obtained in a subset of these participants, and hippocampal and prefrontal cortex regional volumes were extracted. Results. Longitudinal linear mixed modeling revealed significant group by time interactions on memory performance, controlling for age and education. Post hoc analyses revealed this effect was driven by patients treated with chemotherapy or chemotherapy plus hormone therapy, who demonstrated the least improvement in memory scores over time. Treatment group did not significantly influence the relationship between time and processing speed or executive functioning. Neither pretreatment hippocampal nor prefrontal volume differed between groups, and there were no significant group by time by baseline regional volume effects on cognition. Conclusion. Patients with early-stage breast cancer treated with chemotherapy or chemotherapy plus hormone therapy benefit less from practice effects seen in healthy controls on memory tests. Loss of longitudinal practice effect may be a new and clinically relevant measure for capturing patients’ experience of cognitive difficulties after treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Laser Confocal Microscopy Uncertainty Quantification Study

At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Storage Safety and Engineering (SSE) team completes annual surveillance on a subset of in-use interim nuclear material storage containers in fulfilment of requirements outlined in DOE Manual M 441.1-1. The containers are selected through several methods, such as subject matter expert judgement, random selection, and trending items. Following these selections, the SSE team has the capacity to complete surveillance on 15-20 containers each fiscal year, composed of a combination of SAVY-4000 and Hagan storage containers. Through previous work, the stainless-steel components of the containers have been identified as life limiting components, with an emphasis on the thin-walled bodies. The team is focused on understanding the extent of general and pitting corrosion, due to observations of extensive corrosion from stored contents and bag-out-bag degradation. Quantifying corrosion effects on the thin-walled stainless steel container bodies, and understanding potential impacts to the respective design release rates and design qualification release rates is paramount to the team. To date, destructive examination (DE) has proven to be the most insightful method for developing an understanding on the extent of corrosion on used containers. To standardize this process, the SSE team developed a destructive examination guide for analyzing stainless steel components of the containers. Corroded containers of interest are identified during surveillance activities and set aside for sectioning and characterization. Following sectioning, a major step in the DE workflow is the utilization of laser confocal microscopy for scanning corroded samples of interest and extracting data on pits, such as count, depth, and equivalent diameter. Adhering to the techniques outlined in the DE guide, analysis has been completed on two Hagans and one SAVY-4000 container, with the maximum pit depth recorded as 139.1 ± 22.82 μm on a 17.5 year old Hagan. The findings from the completed destructive examinations will be utilized to support lifetime extension efforts of the SAVY-4000 as the team can better estimate corrosion rates and effects over time based on stored contents and age. Due to the implications of observing extreme pit depths that approach the nominal container body thickness of .0299 inches (0.759 mm) or minimum container thickness of 0.236” (0.6 mm), high confidence in the LCM measurements is desired. Through testing outlined in, it was concluded that the total error ascribed to the 20x objective when conducting large image mapping on the Keyence VK-X3050 laser confocal microscope (LCM) relative to a 50x objective (reference) is 16.4% (± 8.73%). For shallow features on the order of pristine SAVY surface defects (i.e. 5 μm), this uncertainty is appropriate. However, this conservative estimate of total error poses a fundamental concern for pit depths that approach the thickness of the measured samples. That is, with the measurement uncertainty currently employed on all measurements, the LCM would be unable to resolve if a pit with a depth of 515 μm is through wall. Standard step height samples were procured and used in the present study to assess the resolution and repeatability of height measurements. Understanding the resolution and repeatability of height measurements was the first focus of the team as it relates directly to pit depth, which is of primary concern. Calibration gratings were procured to evaluate the resolution and repeatability of measurements in the X and Y axes of the LCM stage. The results of the depth uncertainty study were conducted first and presented in the subsequent sections. The planar uncertainty study is appended to the depth study with conclusions from both summarized at the end of the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Housing-Performance Atlas of Baltimore Row Homes: Archetype-Based Multi-Hazard Baseline of Energy, Heat, Survivability, and Durability

Baltimore’s historic row-home neighborhoods face escalating risks to energy, heat, and durability under intensifying climate stress. This study develops a Housing-Performance Atlas that quantifies multi-hazard performance for eight representative archetypes using DesignBuilder/EnergyPlus Version 7.3.1.003, under Baltimore TMY3 boundary conditions. Performance is evaluated across the following four adaptation domains: energy use intensity, passive survivability during 72 h outage events, roof overheating exposure (>150 °F exceedance hours), and material service life derived from ISO 15686 and synthesized into Lean and Full Deficit Indices for comparative resilience ranking. Results show that EUI ranged from 46.7 to 67.6 kBtu ft −2 ·yr −1 , survivability from 0 to 23 h, and roof temperatures exceeded 150 °F for 150–210 h, shortening roof service life by up to 10 years. Composite Lean and Full Deficit Indices ranged 7.8–92.4, ranking Model 5 (end-unit, flat roof, two-story with basement) as the most resilient configuration and Model 8 (end-unit, pitched roof, three-story above-grade) as the least resilient due to compounded overheating and energy losses. Heat-related domains accounted for nearly 70% of overall resilience deficits, confirming thermal safety and roof reflectivity as retrofit priorities. The Housing-Performance Atlas establishes a reproducible diagnostic framework linking simulation, service life, and resilience metrics to guide cost-effective, climate-responsive retrofits in Baltimore’s aging urban housing stock.

Housing-Performance atlas↗

Inhibition of USP7 activity selectively eliminates senescent cells in part via restoration of p53 activity

The accumulation of senescent cells (SnCs) is a causal factor of various age-related diseases as well as some of the side effects of chemotherapy. Pharmacological elimination of SnCs (senolysis) has the potential to be developed into novel therapeutic strategies to treat these diseases and pathological conditions. Here we show that ubiquitin-specific peptidase 7 (USP7) is a novel target for senolysis because inhibition of USP7 with an inhibitor or genetic depletion of USP7 by RNA interference induces apoptosis selectively in SnCs. The senolytic activity of USP7 inhibitors is likely attributable in part to the promotion of the human homolog of mouse double minute 2 (MDM2) ubiquitination and degradation by the ubiquitin–proteasome system. This degradation increases the levels of p53, which in turn induces the pro-apoptotic proteins PUMA, NOXA, and FAS and inhibits the interaction of BCL-XL and BAK to selectively induce apoptosis in SnCs. Further, we show that treatment with a USP7 inhibitor can effectively eliminate SnCs and suppress the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) induced by doxorubicin in mice. These findings suggest that small molecule USP7 inhibitors are novel senolytics that can be exploited to reduce chemotherapy-induced toxicities and treat age-related diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Multi-Metrics In Situ Aging Detector for SiC Power MOSFET Modules with Full Driver-Integration Capability

In this paper, the concept and prototype of an aging detector for silicon carbide (SiC) power metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) are proposed and described. It leverages the resonant peak values of gate-source voltage at different instants during the switching transients to decode the change of multiple aging indicators, such as the increases of on-state resistance and threshold voltage. Modeling-based analysis is conducted to support the idea. The detector can be fully integrated into gate drivers without any additional connection to the power stage and is functional during normal power stage operation. A prototype unit was built, and preliminary tests were conducted to validate the idea and the practicality of the detector.

aging↗

Effectiveness and Long-Term Effects of SER+ FELIZ(mente): A School-Based Mindfulness Program for Portuguese Elementary Students

School-based mindfulness programs (SBMPs) have gained global popularity. Yet, there is a need for more rigorous procedures to develop and assess them. This study aimed to address these limitations by examining the effectiveness of a Portuguese SBMP, called SER + FELIZ(mente). The final sample included 190 third and fourth-graders: 99 in the SBMP group and 91 in a wait-list group. Effects on attentional control, emotional regulation and wellbeing were examined in the short term (T2) and 6 months later (T3). We also tested the moderating role of age, gender, and baseline scores. Using a multilevel modeling approach, results showed a clear benefit of SBMP on emotional wellbeing at T2 but not T3. Despite SBMP students surpassing wait-list students in attentional control, cognitive reappraisal, and social wellbeing at T2, these effects were due to a levelling off among SBMP students, coupled with a decline among wait-list students from T1 to T2. These effects were moderated by age at T3. While universal improvements were limited, our SBMP seemed to have acted as a shield against school stressors (i.e., likely, test anxiety at T2). This opens a new avenue for research concerning the role of SBMPs in preventing (rather than repairing) mental-health issues in elementary students.

Magalhães, Sofia↗

A Double-Edged Sword: The Role of Prior Knowledge in Memory Aging

People accumulate knowledge throughout their lifespan and the accumulated knowledge influences how we encode and retrieve information in memory processing. This study aims to investigate the role of knowledge in associative memory across the adult lifespan, and specifically examines the effects of two material properties that interact with prior knowledge: congruency – whether the material is congruent with people’s prior knowledge, and ambiguity – whether the material is ambiguous to interpret based on prior knowledge. 273 participants (aged 22–70 years old) completed an incidental memory task online. Participants were shown pictures depicting an object in a scene and judged if the object was likely or unlikely to be in the particular scene. Later, in the recognition test, participants were asked to identify if the exact picture was presented earlier. The pictures were manipulated to have varying levels of congruency, meaning that some depicted likely object–scene pairs and some unlikely. We also measured how different the likely/unlikely judgment for each object–scene pair was across all participants to determine the ambiguity level of the object–scene pair: some were more likely to receive diverse responses across people, whereas others are unambiguously consistent (or inconsistent) with common knowledge shared by most people. We used mixed-effects logistic regressions to predict memory outcome for each trial as a function of age, age 2 , congruency/ambiguity, and their interactions. The object–scene pairs perceived as congruent had higher hit rates than incongruent ones, as well as higher false alarm rates, especially in middle-aged and older people. Higher ambiguity was also related to both greater true and false memory, independent of age. Finally, the effect of ambiguity only emerged when the object–scene pair was perceived incongruent. The results suggest that people rely on prior knowledge to process new information and that this reliance improves hit responses, but also induces false memories particularly for middle-aged and older people, suggesting a double-edged role of knowledge in associative memory and its disproportionate influence on memory aging. Over-reliance on knowledge in older adults, which has been suspected in other cognitive processes, may be one of the mechanisms underlying associative memory decrease in aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Responsiveness of miscanthus and switchgrass yields to stand age and nitrogen fertilization: A meta‐regression analysis

Abstract Optimal management of the perennial bioenergy crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, requires an understanding of their responsiveness to nitrogen (N) fertilizer at different maturity stages across locations and growing conditions. Earlier studies that have examined the yield response of these crops to N and stand age using field experiments or meta‐analysis techniques provide mixed evidence. We extend earlier studies by applying a multi‐level mixed‐effects (MLME) meta‐regression model to conduct a more extensive multivariate regression of yield response of these crops to N and stand age, while controlling for climate and location conditions and unobserved factors related to study design. Our findings are based on 1403 and 2811 yield observations for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively, from experiments conducted between 2002 and 2019 across the rainfed region in the United States. We find statistically significant evidence that an additional year of maturity increases miscanthus and switchgrass yields but at a decreasing rate; yields peak at the 7th and 6th year respectively, for the observed range of applied N rates and stands. We also find that an increase in N application increases yield by a statistically significant level, but at a declining rate; the magnitude of the yield response to N is, however, small and varies with the age of the crop. The impact of N is larger on older compared to younger and middle‐aged stands of miscanthus. In contrast, the impact of N on switchgrass is larger on middle‐aged compared to younger and older stands of switchgrass. We do not find a statistically significant effect of soil productivity on yield for either crop. This analysis provides a basis for developing N application recommendations and optimal rotation age for miscanthus and switchgrass and shows that these energy crops can grow just as productively on low productivity land as on high productivity land.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The importance of cycle-by-cycle data in performing rapid battery technology development and validation

Lithium-ion battery (LiB) technology is playing a crucial role in transforming the predominantly fossil fuel-based transportation and stationary storage sectors to achieve a low-carbon economy. Rapid innovation in the LiB materials to electrode to cell design is happening to satisfy the performance, life, and safety metrics required by those myriads of applications. Lately, advanced analytics, such as machine-learning or artificial intelligence (ML/AI) techniques, are being used more frequently to aid in expedited LiB technology development, performance validation, and life prediction. The success of these techniques often relies on a large volume of well-defined and high-quality battery test data. On the other hand, most battery developers and research and development (R&D) communities are still following a classical approach to develop batteries, which is running calendar- and/or cycle-aging tests, performing reference performance tests (RPTs), and conducting post-mortem analyses periodically without paying attention to the wealth of data often not collected during the calendar or cycle life aging tests. This sparse data collection approach is time- and resource-intensive, requiring data capture and evaluation of months to years of RPT data to diagnose accurate battery state of performance, health, and safety. Even so, the underlying aging modes and mechanisms can be missed. If collected properly, battery test data during cycling or calendaring can be efficiently combined with ML/AI techniques to create powerful tools in the rapid diagnosis of battery state of performance, health, and safety along with insights into underlying aging modes and mechanisms. In this report, we discuss the importance of effective cycle-by-cycle (CBC) data collection with example case studies. Within a reasonable timeframe, RPT data are often inadequate in capturing many of the crucial battery aging dynamics, which often predominantly show up in CBC test data. Finally, we also show examples of ML/AI techniques that use CBC data in rapid diagnosis and projection of LiB state of health (SOH) to motivate the scientific community in collecting and using CBC data to facilitate expeditious technology development and validation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Memory in aging colloidal gels with time-varying attraction

Here, we report a combined rheology, x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy, and modeling study of gel formation and aging in suspensions of nanocolloidal spheres with volume fractions of 0.20 and 0.43 and with a short-range attraction whose strength is tuned by changing temperature. Following a quench from high temperature, where the colloids are essentially hard spheres, to a temperature below the gel point, the suspensions form gels that undergo aging characterized by a steadily increasing elastic shear modulus and slowing, increasingly constrained microscopic dynamics. The aging proceeds at a faster rate for stronger attraction strength. When the attraction strength is suddenly lowered during aging, the gel properties evolve non-monotonically in a manner resembling the Kovacs effect in glasses, in which the modulus decreases and the microscopic dynamics become less constrained for a period before more conventional aging resumes. Eventually, the properties of the gel following the decrease in attraction strength converge to those of a gel that has undergone aging at the lower attraction strength throughout. The time scale of this convergence increases as a power law with the age at which the attraction strength is decreased and decreases exponentially with the magnitude of the change in attraction. A model for gel aging in which particles attach and detach from the gel at rates that depend on their contact number reproduces these trends and reveals that the non-monotonic behavior results from the dispersion in the rates that the populations of particles with different contact number adjust to the new attraction strength.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stellar population analysis of MaNGA early-type galaxies: IMF dependence and systematic effects

We study systematics associated with estimating simple stellar population (SSP) parameters – age, metallicity [M/H], α-enhancement [α/Fe], and initial mass function (IMF) shape – and associated M * /L gradients, of elliptical slow rotators (E-SRs), fast rotators (E-FRs), and S0s from stacked spectra of galaxies in the MaNGA survey. These systematics arise from (i) how one normalizes the spectra when stacking; (ii) having to subtract emission before estimating absorption line strengths; (iii) the decision to fit the whole spectrum or just a few absorption lines; (iv) SSP model differences (e.g. isochrones, enrichment, IMF). The MILES+Padova SSP models, fit to the H β , 〈Fe〉, TiO 2SDSS , and [MgFe] Lick indices in the stacks, indicate that out to the half-light radius R e : (a) ages are younger and [α/Fe] values are lower in the central regions but the opposite is true of [M/H]; (b) the IMF is more bottom-heavy in the center, but is close to Kroupa beyond about R e /2; (c) this makes M * /L about 2 × larger in the central regions than beyond R e /2. While the models of Conroy et al. return similar [M/H] and [α/Fe] profiles, the age and (hence) M * /L profiles can differ significantly even for solar abundances and a Kroupa IMF; different responses to non-solar abundances and IMF parametrization further compound these differences. There are clear (model independent) differences between E-SRs, E-FRs, and S0s: younger ages and less enhanced [α/Fe] values suggest that E-FRs and S0s are not SSPs, but relaxing this assumption is unlikely to change their inferred M * /L gradients significantly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Gradual Decline of Star Formation since Cluster Infall: New Kinematic Insights into Environmental Quenching at 0.3 < z < 1.1

The environments where galaxies reside crucially shape their star formation histories. We investigate a large sample of 1626 cluster galaxies located within 105 galaxy clusters spanning a large range in redshift (0.26 < z < 1.13). The galaxy clusters are massive (M 500 ≳ 2 × 10 14 M ⊙ ) and uniformly selected from the SPT and ACT Sunyaev–Zel'dovich surveys. With spectra in hand for thousands of cluster members, we use the galaxies' position in projected phase space as a proxy for their infall times, which provides a more robust measurement of environment than quantities such as projected clustercentric radius. We find clear evidence for a gradual age increase of the galaxy's mean stellar populations (~0.71 ± 0.4 Gyr based on a 4000 Å break, D n 4000) with the time spent in the cluster environment. This environmental quenching effect is found regardless of galaxy luminosity (faint or bright) and redshift (low or high-z), although the exact stellar age of galaxies depends on both parameters at fixed environmental effects. Such a systematic increase of D n 4000 with infall proxy would suggest that galaxies that were accreted into hosts earlier were quenched earlier due to longer exposure to environmental effects such as ram pressure stripping and starvation. Compared to the typical dynamical timescales of 1–3 Gyr of cluster galaxies, the relatively small age increase (~0.71 ± 0.4 Gyr) found in our sample galaxies seems to suggest that a slow environmental process such as starvation is the dominant quenching pathway. Our results provide new insights into environmental quenching effects spanning a large range in cosmic time (~5.2 Gyr, z = 0.26–1.13) and demonstrate the power of using a kinematically derived infall time proxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gestational exposure to HIV drugs alters intestinal mucosa-associated microbial diversity in adult rat offspring

The antiretroviral (ARV) drug combination of abacavir sulfate, dolutegravir, and lamivudine [ABC/DTG/3TC; Tri combination Anti-retroviral therapy (TC-ART)] has revolutionized HIV treatment by effectively targeting different stages of viral replication. Despite its therapeutic efficiency for maintaining low viremia in the mother during pregnancy, there are concerns for long-term liabilities in offspring that are indirectly exposed during vulnerable periods of development. The commensal microbiota plays a crucial role in maintaining overall gut health, and disruption of the microbiome is often linked to various extraintestinal effects such as immune dysregulation and inflammation. We recently reported the effects of this drug combination in altering fecal microbiome composition of aged rats perinatally exposed to ABC/DTG/3TC-ART. The fecal microbiome can provide only a snapshot of the composition of microbial community at the end of the digestive tract, which may not reflect the microbial population interacting with ileal mucosa. Thus, the current work reports the effects of this drug combination in the gut mucosa-associated microbiome of the same animals, which showed significant microbial diversity and species richness in high dose exposed female adult offspring, along with dose-dependent changes in Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio. The high dose exposure also showed an increase in opportunistic bacterial species in male animals. Overall, we found that, similar to the fecal microbiome, perinatal exposure to TC-ART led to sex- and dose-dependent alterations in the gut mucosa-associated microbial population in aged rats, suggesting that early life exposure to these drugs may influence gut mucosa-associated immune responses and intestinal permeability.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗

Lung Cancer in the Mayak Workers Cohort: Risk Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis

The workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Ozyorsk, Russia are a primary source of information about exposure to radiation at low-dose rates, since they were subject to protracted exposures to external gamma rays and to internal exposures from plutonium inhalation. Here we re-examine lung cancer mortality rates and assess the effects of external gamma and internal plutonium exposures using recently developed Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Using individual lagged mean annual lung doses computed from the dose realizations, we fit excess relative risk (ERR) models to the lung cancer mortality data for the Mayak Workers Cohort using risk-modeling software. We then used the corrected information matrix (CIM) approach to widen the confidence intervals of ERR by taking into account the uncertainty in doses represented by multiple realizations from the Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Findings of this work revealed that there were 930 lung cancer deaths during follow-up. Plutonium lung doses (but not gamma doses) were generally higher in the new dosimetry systems than those used in the previous analysis. This led to a reduction in the risk per unit dose compared to prior estimates. The estimated ERR/Gy for external gamma-ray exposure was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.31) for both sexes combined, while the ERR/Gy for internal exposures based on mean plutonium doses were 3.5 (95% CI: 2.3 to 4.6) and 8.9 (95% CI: 3.4 to 14) for males and females at attained age 60. Accounting for uncertainty in dose had little effect on the confidence intervals for the ERR associated with gamma-ray exposure, but had a marked impact on confidence intervals, particularly the upper bounds, for the effect of plutonium exposure [adjusted 95% CIs: 1.5 to 8.9 for males and 2.7 to 28 for females]. In conclusion, lung cancer rates increased significantly with both external gamma-ray and internal plutonium exposures. Accounting for the effects of dose uncertainty markedly increased the width of the confidence intervals for the plutonium dose response but had little impact on the external gamma dose effect estimate. Adjusting risk estimate confidence intervals using CIM provides a solution to the important problem of dose uncertainty. This work demonstrates, for the first time, that it is possible and practical to use our recently developed CIM method to make such adjustments in a large cohort study.

uncertainty, radiation risk estimation, Mayak Prod↗

System-level performance and degradation of 21 GWDC of utility-scale PV plants in the United States

We assess the performance of a fleet of 411 utility-scale (i.e., >5 MWAC and ground-mounted) photovoltaic (PV) projects totaling 21.1 GWDC (16.3 GWAC) of capacity, which achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007 to 2016. This fleet of projects contributed more than 50% of all solar electricity generated in the United States in 2017. Using detailed information on individual project characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, we assess the extent to which actual first-year performance has lived up to both modeled and stated expectations. We then analyze system-level performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on system performance. We find that this fleet of utility-scale PV projects has generally lived up to ex ante expectations for first-year performance but that subsequent system-level degradation—found to be −1.3%/year (±0.2%)—has, on average, been worse than both ex ante expectations (commonly −0.5%/year) and results from past studies (ranging from −0.8%/year to −1.0%/year). We emphasize that −1.3%/year is a system-level estimate that captures more than just module degradation (e.g., including soiling, balance of plant degradation, and downtime for maintenance and/or other events). A side analysis of a variety of project characteristics suggests that system-level degradation rates tend to be of lower magnitude among newer projects and larger projects and at sites with lower long-term average temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗