Optimized Cost/Performance Design Methodology: Volume 3 - Concept Analysis and Model Development, Book 2 - Model Formulation
Cost system model for optimized cost orbital space transportation system
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Cost system model for optimized cost orbital space transportation system
A technique for calculating the effects of on-orbit loads on the structural dynamics of the International Space Station is developed on the basis of MSC/NASTRAN superelement solution sequences. The complexity of the Space Station program with its multiple configurations, international partners, and contractors is stressed, and the impact of this complexity on the dynamic-load analysis process is indicated. The MSC/NASTRAN-based approach is outlined, and its application to two versions of the Permanent Manned Capability configuration is described in detail, including component mode synthesis, GFSC/FLAME coupled-loads analysis (with components from the system FEM model or from the Work Package), and ISI/MATRIX-X generation of closed-loop forcing functions. The results of these sample analyses are presented in extensive tables and graphs and briefly characterized.
A method using curved vortex elements was developed for helicopter rotor free wake calculations. The Basic Curve Vortex Element (BCVE) is derived from the approximate Biot-Savart integration for a parabolic arc filament. When used in conjunction with a scheme to fit the elements along a vortex filament contour, this method has a significant advantage in overall accuracy and efficiency when compared to the traditional straight-line element approach. A theoretical and numerical analysis shows that free wake flows involving close interactions between filaments should utilize curved vortex elements in order to guarantee a consistent level of accuracy. The curved element method was implemented into a forward flight free wake analysis, featuring an adaptive far wake model that utilizes free wake information to extend the vortex filaments beyond the free wake regions. The curved vortex element free wake, coupled with this far wake model, exhibited rapid convergence, even in regions where the free wake and far wake turns are interlaced. Sample calculations are presented for tip vortex motion at various advance ratios for single and multiple blade rotors. Cross-flow plots reveal that the overall downstream wake flow resembles a trailing vortex pair. A preliminary assessment shows that the rotor downwash field is insensitive to element size, even for relatively large curved elements.
This report describes an activity-based cost estimation method, proposed for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI), as an alternative to NASA's traditional mass-based cost estimation method. A case study demonstrates how the activity-based cost estimation technique can be used to identify the operations that have a significant impact on costs over the life cycle of the SEI. The case study yielded an operations cost of $101 billion for the 20-year span of the lunar surface operations for the Option 5a program architecture. In addition, the results indicated that the support and training costs for the missions were the greatest contributors to the annual cost estimates. A cost-sensitivity analysis of the cultural and architectural drivers determined that the length of training and the amount of support associated with the ground support personnel for mission activities are the most significant cost contributors.
State Analysis is a methodology developed over the last decade for architecting, designing and documenting complex control systems. Although it was originally conceived for designing robotic spacecraft, recent applications include the design of control systems for large ground-based telescopes. The European Southern Observatory (ESO) began a project to design the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), which will require coordinated control of over a thousand articulated mirror segments. The designers are using State Analysis as a methodology and the Systems Modeling Language (SysML) as a modeling and documentation language in this task. To effectively apply the State Analysis methodology in this context it became necessary to provide ontological definitions of the concepts and relations in State Analysis and greater flexibility through a mapping of State Analysis into a practical extension of SysML. The ontology provides the formal basis for verifying compliance with State Analysis semantics including architectural constraints. The SysML extension provides the practical basis for applying the State Analysis methodology with SysML tools. This paper will discuss the method used to develop these formalisms (the ontology), the formalisms themselves, the mapping to SysML and approach to using these formalisms to specify a control system and enforce architectural constraints in a SysML model.
We present a test methodology for estimating system error rates of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) mitigated with Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR). The test methodology is founded in a mathematical model, which is also presented. Accelerator data from 90 nm Xilins Military/Aerospace grade FPGA are shown to fit the model. Fault injection (FI) results are discussed and related to the test data. Design implementation and the corresponding impact of multiple bit upset (MBU) are also discussed.
Insight is provided toward the development of an optimal program for investment analysis of project proposals offering commercial potential and its components. This involves a critique of economic investment criteria viewed in relation to requirements of engineering economy analysis. An outline for a systems approach to project analysis is given Application of the Leontief input-output methodology to analysis of projects involving multiple processes and products is investigated. Effective application of elements of neoclassical economic theory to investment analysis of project components is demonstrated. Patterns of both static and dynamic activity levels are incorporated.
Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot engine structures at Lewis Research Center is presented. Three elements of the research program are: (1) composite load spectra methodology; (2) probabilistic structural analysis methodology; and (3) probabilistic structural analysis application. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) turbine blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the space shuttle main engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; and (3) evaluation of the failure probability. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability of hot engine structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic/reliability framework.
The Analysis Criteria Evaluation System (ACES) is a knowledge based expert system that automates the final certification of the Space Shuttle onboard flight software. Guidance, navigation and control of the Space Shuttle through all its flight phases are accomplished by a complex onboard flight software system. This software is reconfigured for each flight to allow thousands of mission-specific parameters to be introduced and must therefore be thoroughly certified prior to each flight. This certification is performed in ground simulations by executing the software in the flight computers. Flight trajectories from liftoff to landing, including abort scenarios, are simulated and the results are stored for analysis. The current methodology of performing this analysis is repetitive and requires many man-hours. The ultimate goals of ACES are to capture the knowledge of the current experts and improve the quality and reduce the manpower required to certify the Space Shuttle onboard flight software.
The literature on human error is reviewed with emphasis on theories of error and classification schemes. A methodology for analysis and classification of human error is then proposed which includes a general approach to classification. Identification of possible causes and factors that contribute to the occurrence of errors is also considered. An application of the methodology to the use of checklists in the aviation domain is presented for illustrative purposes.
The aim of this research is to develop new mathematical methodology for the analysis of hybrid systems of the type involved in Air Traffic Control (ATC) problems. Two directions of investigation were initiated. The first used the methodology of nonlinear generalized functions, whose mathematical foundations were initiated by Colombeau and developed further by Oberguggenberger; it has been extended to apply to ordinary differential. Systems of the type encountered in control in joint work with the PI and M. Oberguggenberger. This involved a 'mixture' of 'continuous' and 'discrete' methodology. ATC clearly involves mixtures of two sorts of mathematical problems: (1) The 'continuous' dynamics of a standard control type described by ordinary differential equations (ODE) of the form: {dx/dt = f(x, u)} and (2) the discrete lattice dynamics involved of cellular automata. Most of the CA literature involves a discretization of a partial differential equation system of the type encountered in physics problems (e.g. fluid and gas problems). Both of these directions requires much thinking and new development of mathematical fundamentals before they may be utilized in the ATC work. Rather than consider CA as 'discretization' of PDE systems, I believe that the ATC applications will require a completely different and new mathematical methodology, a sort of discrete analogue of jet bundles and/or the sheaf-theoretic techniques to topologists. Here too, I have begun work on virtually 'virgin' mathematical ground (at least from an 'applied' point of view) which will require considerable preliminary work.
This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and tuning of controllers using control verification metrics. These metrics, which are introduced in a companion paper, measure the size of the largest uncertainty set of a given class for which the closed-loop specifications are satisfied. This framework integrates deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty models into a setting that enables the deformation of sets in the parameter space, the control design space, and in the union of these two spaces. In regard to control analysis, we propose strategies that enable bounding regions of the design space where the specifications are satisfied by all the closed-loop systems associated with a prescribed uncertainty set. When this is unfeasible, we bound regions where the probability of satisfying the requirements exceeds a prescribed value. In regard to control tuning, we propose strategies for the improvement of the robust characteristics of a baseline controller. Some of these strategies use multi-point approximations to the control verification metrics in order to alleviate the numerical burden of solving a min-max problem. Since this methodology targets non-linear systems having an arbitrary, possibly implicit, functional dependency on the uncertain parameters and for which high-fidelity simulations are available, they are applicable to realistic engineering problems..
The methodology used to implement structural sensitivity calculations into a major, general-purpose finite-element analysis system (SPAR) is described. This implementation includes a generalized method for specifying element cross-sectional dimensions as design variables that can be used in analytically calculating derivatives of output quantities from static stress, vibration, and buckling analyses for both membrane and bending elements. Limited sample results for static displacements and stresses are presented to indicate the advantages of analytically calculating response derivatives compared to finite difference methods. Continuing developments to implement these procedures into an enhanced version of SPAR are also discussed.
The objective of this project was to propose a means to improve aviation weather information, training procedures based on a human-centered systems approach. Methodology: cognitive analysis of pilot's tasks; trajectory-based approach to weather information; contingency planning support; and implications for improving weather information.
The general methodology for the analysis of arbitrary nonstationary random data is reviewed. A specific parametric model, called the product model, that has applications to space vehicle launch vibration data analysis is discussed. Illustrations are given using the nonstationary launch vibration data measured on the Space Shuttle orbiter vehicle.
The paper presents a generalized Transform Method based Finite Element methodology for thermal analysis with emphasis on the computational aspects of heat transfer in structures. The purpose of this paper is to present an alternate methodology for thermal analysis of structures and therein outline the advantages of the approach in comparison with conventional finite element schemes and existing practices. The overall goals of the research, however, are aimed first toward enhanced thermal formulations and therein to provide avenues for subsequent interdisciplinary thermal/structural analysis via a common numerical methodology. Basic concepts of the approach for thermal analysis is described with emphasis on a Laplace Transform based finite element methodology. Highlights and characteristic features of the approach are described via generalized formulations and applications to several problems. Results obtained demonstrate excellent agreement in comparison with analytic and/or conventional finite element solutions with savings in computational times and model sizes. Potential of the approach for interdisciplinary thermal/structural problems are also identified.
The State Analysis Database Tool software establishes a productive environment for collaboration among software and system engineers engaged in the development of complex interacting systems. The tool embodies State Analysis, a model-based system engineering methodology founded on a state-based control architecture (see figure). A state represents a momentary condition of an evolving system, and a model may describe how a state evolves and is affected by other states. The State Analysis methodology is a process for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models and states, and defining goal-based operational plans consistent with the models. Requirements, models, and operational concerns have traditionally been documented in a variety of system engineering artifacts that address different aspects of a mission s lifecycle. In State Analysis, requirements, models, and operations information are State Analysis artifacts that are consistent and stored in a State Analysis Database. The tool includes a back-end database, a multi-platform front-end client, and Web-based administrative functions. The tool is structured to prompt an engineer to follow the State Analysis methodology, to encourage state discovery and model description, and to make software requirements and operations plans consistent with model descriptions.
State Analysis is a systems engineering methodology for the specification and design of control systems, developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The methodology emphasizes an analysis of the system under control in terms of States and their properties and behaviors and their effects on each other, a clear separation of the control system from the controlled system, cognizance in the control system of the controlled system's State, goal-based control built on constraining the controlled system's States, and disciplined techniques for State discovery and characterization. State Analysis (SA) introduces two key diagram types: State Effects and Goal Network diagrams. The team at JPL developed a tool for performing State Analysis. The tool includes a drawing capability, backed by a database that supports the diagram types and the organization of the elements of the SA models. But the tool does not support the usual activities of software engineering and design - a disadvantage, since systems to which State Analysis can be applied tend to be very software-intensive. This motivated the work described in this paper: the development of a preliminary Unified Modeling Language (UML) profile for State Analysis. Having this profile would enable systems engineers to specify a system using the methods and graphical language of State Analysis, which is easily linked with a larger system model in SysML (Systems Modeling Language), while also giving software engineers engaged in implementing the specified control system immediate access to and use of the SA model, in the same language, UML, used for other software design. That is, a State Analysis profile would serve as a shared modeling bridge between system and software models for the behavior aspects of the system. This paper begins with an overview of State Analysis and its underpinnings, followed by an overview of the mapping of SA constructs to the UML metamodel. It then delves into the details of these mappings and the constraints associated with them. Finally, we give an example of the use of the profile for expressing an example SA model.