Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “bootstrapping”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

Generating Uncertainty Distributions for Seismic Signal Onset Times

Signal arrival-time estimation plays a critical role in a variety of downstream seismic analyses, including location estimation and source characterization. Any arrival-time errors propagate through subsequent data-processing results. In this article, we detail a general framework for refining estimated seismic signal arrival times along with full estimation of their associated uncertainty. Using the standard short-term average/long-term average threshold algorithm to identify a search window, we demonstrate how to refine the pick estimate through two different approaches. In both cases, new waveform realizations are generated through bootstrap algorithms to produce full a posteriori estimates of uncertainty of onset arrival time of the seismic signal. The onset arrival uncertainty estimates provide additional data-derived information from the signal and have the potential to influence seismic analysis along several fronts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

HP-FLEX: Field demonstration of the semantics-driven configuration of a Model Predictive Control system to make heat pumps flexible

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has demonstrated significant potential for optimizing building operations and enabling demand flexibility. However, the widespread adoption of MPC is hindered by complex manual configuration and commissioning processes that must be conducted by control experts working alongside building operators. These challenges drive up costs and reduce scalability, particularly when technical human resources and building automation systems are limited, such as in small and medium commercial buildings (SMCBs). This paper demonstrates how semantic standards, specifically ASHRAE 223P, can accelerate the adoption of MPC applications for load flexibility in SMCBs. The authors present a replicable control framework, titled “HP-FLEX” that leverages a building’s semantic model to bootstrap the required data configuration for an MPC controller developed for optimizing heat pump systems as flexible grid resources. The semantic model helps streamline the deployment workflow, particularly for site setup, data/control commissioning, and model setup. This integration enhances portability, transferability, and scalability of the HP-FLEX MPC, which has been developed to support MPC-based supervisory HVAC controllers in SMCBs. Additionally, the paper details the required building and thermostat metadata information to enable the HP-FLEX MPC based on field demonstrations. The new workflow was tested in a small commercial building located in California, U.S., and demonstrated a load shifting performance of 9% based on a dynamic pricing signal that varies by the hour. This work provides a practical pathway for transitioning sophisticated building applications from custom to standardized semantic representations, supporting the broader adoption of advanced control strategies like MPC. The framework also establishes a foundation for evolving metadata requirements as applications mature while maintaining compatibility with industry standards.

Paul, Lazlo↗

Quantum field theory and the Bieberbach conjecture

An intriguing correspondence between ingredients in geometric function theory related to the famous Bieberbach conjecture (de Branges' theorem) and the non-perturbative crossing symmetric representation of 2-2 scattering amplitudes of identical scalars is pointed out. Using the dispersion relation and unitarity, we are able to derive several inequalities, analogous to those which arise in the discussions of the Bieberbach conjecture. We derive new and strong bounds on the ratio of certain Wilson coefficients and demonstrate that these are obeyed in one-loop Φ 4 theory, tree level string theory as well as in the S-matrix bootstrap. Further, we find two sided bounds on the magnitude of the scattering amplitude, which are shown to be respected in all the contexts mentioned above. Translated to the usual Mandelstam variables, for large |s|, fixed t, the upper bound reads |M(s,t)| ≲ |s 2 |. We discuss how Szegö's theorem corresponds to a check of univalence in an EFT expansion, while how the Grunsky inequalities translate into nontrivial, nonlinear inequalities on the Wilson coefficients.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Duality and form factors in the thermally deformed two-dimensional tricritical Ising model

The thermal deformation of the critical point action of the 2D tricritical Ising model gives rise to an exact scattering theory with seven massive excitations based on the exceptional E_7 E 7 Lie algebra. The high and low temperature phases of this model are related by duality. This duality guarantees that the leading and sub-leading magnetisation operators, \sigma(x) σ ( x ) and \sigma'(x) σ ′ ( x ) , in either phase are accompanied by associated disorder operators, \mu(x) μ ( x ) and \mu'(x) μ ′ ( x ) . Working specifically in the high temperature phase, we write down the sets of bootstrap equations for these four operators. For \sigma(x) σ ( x ) and \sigma'(x) σ ′ ( x ) , the equations are identical in form and are parameterised by the values of the one-particle form factors of the two lightest \mathbb{Z}_2 ℤ 2 odd particles. Similarly, the equations for \mu(x) μ ( x ) and \mu'(x) μ ′ ( x ) have identical form and are parameterised by two elementary form factors. Using the clustering property, we show that these four sets of solutions are eventually not independent; instead, the parameters of the solutions for \sigma(x)/\sigma'(x) σ ( x ) / σ ′ ( x ) are fixed in terms of those for \mu(x)/\mu'(x) μ ( x ) / μ ′ ( x ) . We use the truncated conformal space approach to confirm numerically the derived expressions of the matrix elements as well as the validity of the \Delta Δ -sum rule as applied to the off-critical correlators. We employ the derived form factors of the order and disorder operators to compute the exact dynamical structure factors of the theory, a set of quantities with a rich spectroscopy which may be directly tested in future inelastic neutron or Raman scattering experiments.

Cortes Cubero, Axel↗

Knots and entanglement

We extend the entanglement bootstrap program to (3+1)-dimensions. We study knotted excitations of (3+1)-dimensional liquid topological orders and exotic fusion processes of loops. As in previous work in (2+1)-dimensions [Ann. Phys. 418, 168164 (2020), Phys. Rev. B 103, 115150 (2021)], we define a variety of superselection sectors and fusion spaces from two axioms on the ground state entanglement entropy. In particular, we identify fusion spaces associated with knots. We generalize the information convex set to a new class of regions called immersed regions, promoting various theorems to this new context. Examples from solvable models are provided; for instance, a concrete calculation of knot multiplicity shows that the knot complement of a trefoil knot can store quantum information. We define spiral maps that allow us to understand consistency relations for torus knots as well as spiral fusions of fluxes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Conformal boundary conditions for a 4d scalar field

We construct unitary, stable, and interacting conformal boundary conditions for a free massless scalar in four dimensions by coupling it to edge modes living on a boundary. The boundary theories we consider are bosonic and fermionic QED _3 3 with N_f N f flavors and a Chern-Simons term at level k k , in the large- N_f N f limit with fixed k/N_f k / N f . We find that interacting boundary conditions only exist when k≠ 0 k ≠ 0 . To obtain this result we compute the \beta β functions of the classically marginal couplings at the first non-vanishing order in the large- N_f N f expansion, and to all orders in k/N_f k / N f and in the couplings. To check vacuum stability we also compute the large- N_f N f effective potential. We compare our results with the the known conformal bootstrap bounds.

Di Pietro, Lorenzo (ORCID:0000000174965276)↗

Conservative Estimation of Tail Probabilities from Limited Sample Data

Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multiclass classification experiments

We seek a multiclass classifier that can satisfy the following requirements. 1. Predict among at least three classes. 2. Handle a moderately large number of correlated predictors. 3. Handle mixed categorical and continuous predictors. 4. Handle missing values (in some way). 5. Be trained with about n = 1,000 responses, and 6. Quantify prediction uncertainty. Based on 5. above, it is assumed that accuracy of prediction is paramount (relative to, say, runtime). All methods considered in this document take on the order of minutes (most take seconds) on a 2.8 GHz Quad-Core Intel Core i7 processor with 16GB RAM. Secondly, quantification of uncertainty is assumed to be a secondary task, since, with this small data size, resampling methods (i.e. bootstrapping) are possible. Further studies should quantify the feasibility and accuracy of resampling methods, and/or other methods, for quantifying uncertainty. R was used for all software.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Review of the November 11, 1905 Earthquake: Seismic Intensity Data, Magnitude, and Location Report

The macroseismic location and magnitude of the Shoshone 1905 earthquake has been based on the application of objective and quantitative approaches that produce estimates of earthquake source location and magnitude, and associated uncertainties. The performance of all three approaches applied depends critically on the characteristics of the seismic intensity field. Regional intensity attenuation relations were derived based on a calibration set of earthquakes and then, the procedure was validated using three independent very recent events. The macroseismic epicenter location was determined by either a grid search procedure, the spatial distribution of the sites experiencing the largest intensities, or a combination of both. The macroseismic magnitude estimates are based on the derived regional intensity attenuation relations. There is consistency in the location and magnitude of the November 1905 earthquake as obtained by the three methods. The overlapping region of the 68% bootstrap resampling solutions suggests a reliable epicenter location within 41.550N ? 42.060N and 113.478W ? 112.320W. This region encloses the original Oaks (1992) epicenter location. Macroseismic magnitude estimates range between 5.87 and 6.05.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantitative assessment of Distributed Acoustic Sensing at the Source Physics Experiment, Phase II

In this report, we assess the data recorded by a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) cable deployed during the Source Physics Experiment, Phase II (DAG) in comparison with the data recorded by nearby 4.5-Hz geophones. DAS is a novel recording method with unprecedented spatial resolution, but there are significant concerns around the data fidelity as the technology is ramped up to more common usage. Here we run a series of tests to quantify the similarity between DAS data and more conventional data and investigate cases where the higher spatial resolution of the DAS can provide new insights into the wavefield. These tests include 1D modeling with seismic refraction and bootstrap uncertainties, assessing the amplitude spectra with distance from the source, measuring the frequency dependent inter-station coherency, estimating time-dependent phase velocity with beamforming and semblance, and measuring the cross-correlation between the geophone and the particle velocity inferred from the DAS. In most cases, we find high similarity between the two datasets, but the higher spatial resolution of the DAS provides increased details and methods of estimating uncertainty.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Theories and Constraints for Massive Higher Spins (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to develop methods for constraining the scattering amplitudes of interacting theories containing massive higher spin particles, and to apply these methods to search for, constrain, and apply theories containing massive high spins. During the 3 year term of the project, 15 papers containing results from the project were published in peer reviewed journals. Highlights of these results include: proofs of the best possible strong coupling scales for theories with massive spin 2 particles, causality constraints on couplings in such theories, the discovery of new effective field theories with extended shift symmetries on curved space, the discovery of a new symmetry of the decoupling limit of massive gravity, a study of the possible shapes of graviton non-gaussianities during inflation, classification results of supersymmetric partially massless fields, and the development of the geometric bootstrap, a novel method to generate new mathematical results about the spectrum of various Laplacian operators on closed Einstein manifolds.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Quantitative assessment of Distributed Acoustic Sensing at the Source Physics Experiment (Phase II)

In this report, we assess the data recorded by a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) cable deployed during the Source Physics Experiment, Phase II (DAG) in comparison with the data recorded by nearby 4.5-Hz geophones. DAS is a novel recording method with unprecedented spatial resolution, but there are significant concerns around the data fidelity as the technology is ramped up to more common usage. Here we run a series of tests to quantify the similarity between DAS data and more conventional data and investigate cases where the higher spatial resolution of the DAS can provide new insights into the wavefield. These tests include 1D modeling with seismic refraction and bootstrap uncertainties, assessing the amplitude spectra with distance from the source, measuring the frequency dependent inter-station coherency, estimating time-dependent phase velocity with beamforming and semblance, and measuring the cross-correlation between the geophone and the particle velocity inferred from the DAS. In most cases, we find high similarity between the two datasets, but the higher spatial resolution of the DAS provides increased details and methods of estimating uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predictive Battery Lifetime Modeling at NREL [Slides]

Battery lifetime models are used to extrapolate data from accelerated aging tests to simulate degradation in real-world applications such as electric vehicles and battery energy storage systems. Methods developed at NREL utilize both expert domain-knowledge and machine-learning to identify models, using statistical methods such as cross-validation and bootstrap resampling to interrogate model performance and quantify uncertainty. These models can be utilized in systems level simulations to predict battery performance or technoeconomic models to estimate the lifetime cost of battery systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Automated Control for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Start-Up using MOOSE-based Applications

This report presents a Griffin/Bison/RELAP-7 numerical model of a prototypical NTP system that features fuel assemblies arranged in rings, and which was designed to simulate rapid startup transients. The physics modeled include full-core neutronics, assembly-wise heat conduction, and conjugate heat transfer, with the balance of plant mainly imposed through boundary conditions. In addition, various forms of automated reactivity control were deployed by using the MOOSE to autonomously drive the model and simulate the reactor transitioning from assumed initial conditions to nominal power in a fraction of a minute. To generate the cross-sections of the neutronics model, and in an effort to simultaneously account for the tremendous axial temperature gradients in the reactor and to limit the number of state points required for cross-section generation, the average component temperatures and hydrogen densities in the cooling channels were correlated to the average fuel and moderator temperatures, and fixed axial profiles were derived for nominal conditions and then used during the transient. With this approximation, a tractable cross-section library tabulated with fuel/moderator temperatures and CD angles was generated using Serpent. The full-core SPH correction procedure and the CD decusping technology in Griffin, respectively, ensure preservation of the multiplication factor and reaction rates at state points, along with a reasonably accurate reactivity worth between tabulated CD angles, despite using a coarse mesh. Feedback from other physics was calculated by modeling one representative fuel assembly per ring, along with the corresponding fuel and moderator cooling channels. To limit power overshoots during startup, another layer of multiphysics coupling was added to the model in order to automatically control the drums. Two different technologies presented herein showed outstanding performance in this regard: (1) a novel hybrid PID controller based on both power and reactivity signals, and (2) a PGC that relies on kinetics parameters and reactivity coefficients to predict future behavior and adjust the desired signal accordingly. A challenging benchmark was devised, featuring a power demand curve that exponentially increases by a factor of 500 within 30 seconds, then levels out after that. Both control approaches create a simulated power curve that closely follows the power demand curve and limits power overshoots to 1% or less. While the former approach requires more tuning of the internal parameters, the latter requires additional knowledge of the reactivity feedback coefficients and rates of change of the corresponding variables, including fuel and moderator temperature, which could be difficult to dynamically measure for a real NTP system. Fortunately, some inaccuracy in these quantities will not drastically degrade the PGC performance. Subsequently, a more realistic startup sequence was considered, in which the mass flow rate and outlet pressures are ramped up to model bootstrap and thrust build-up phases prior to reaching steady-state conditions, demonstrating the ability of the hybrid PID and PGCs to handle such transients, with both types of controllers exhibiting very similar behavior. Nevertheless, a significant chamber temperature overshoot was observed, caused by the demanded power signal and assumed mass flow rate. This issue could be mitigated by deploying a reactor controller that follows the chamber temperature signal and actuates both the control valves and drums (rather than using a power signal based solely on the drums to control reactivity). Enhancement of the hydrogen fluid properties available in MOOSE, as well as a better understanding of prototypical initial conditions, are also needed to further enhance this startup model. Finally, a study was performed to model decay heat post-shutdown, and to prepare for extending this model to predict shutdown behavior and post-shutdown pulsed cooling requirements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Edge and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2017-2019) [and subsequently titled] Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Interior and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2019-2022) (Final Report)

This is the Final Technical Report for the DOE Measurement Innovation grant DE-SC0017998 titled Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Edge and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2017-2019) and subsequently titled Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Interior and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2019-2022). The grant was funded by the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) for the period 1 September 2017 – 31 May 2022. Work performed through the grant has resulted in diagnostic innovations and new measurement capabilities that could improve understanding of magnetic equilibrium, edge localized modes in tokamaks, and bootstrap and Pfirsch-Schlüter currents in stellarators. We have performed simulations of a novel non-hydrogen beam-based diagnostic that would determine a local value (in the plasma) of the poloidal flux function by measuring the toroidal angle of the beam particles' velocity at a detector external to the plasma. The approach is similar to that of a Heavy Ion Beam Probe (HIBP), but would be able to operate with a smaller, more economical detection systems and, in doing so, may enable substantial extension of scenarios in which beam-based diagnostics are deployed. Key results include: Identification of the neutral and singly charged atoms that are most appropriate for use in the beam based diagnostic and the ionization cross-sections that are important for studying the plasma edge of a large device; Development of a promising geometry for operation in which the beam is injected horizontally near the torus midplane; Implementation of simulations using banana orbit trajectories of secondary beam ions to access plasma regions that are commonly in-accessible to an HIBP diagnostic, including sample volumes near the X-point of a diverted tokamak; Assessment of the ability of the diagnostic concept (originally developed under the assumption of, and reliant on, symmetry) to work in stellarators by performing simulations with both quasi-symmetric fields and non-quasi-symmetric fields; Measurement of noise levels with a prototype detector on a stellarator and exploration of techniques to minimize effects of noise on a diagnostic.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Blockchain Empowered Provenance Framework for Sensor Identity Management and Data Flow Security in Fossil-based Power Plants

The overall goals of this project are divided into 3 important phases. First, a peer-to-peer SCADA network is to be established where identity profile of sensors from fossil-power plants will be stored in an immutable manner in order to verify data flow integrity in real time. Second, it is aimed to develop a Blockchain-based provenance platform to audit equipment operations along with data and process integrity violations. In this phase, various operational rules will be incorporated in the ledger on behalf of the operating sensor so its abnormal use can be easily detected. In addition, it is aimed to achieve provenance when the rate of transactions is exceedingly high, thus enabling to design a scalable provenance scheme that can work in real time when number of data collecting points or sensor units increase in fossil-based power plants. Finally, a working testbed will be developed to integrate the Blockchain platform with sensor-based fossil power plant comprising of Remote Terminal Units (RTU) and SCADA devices. Using multiple Raspberry-PIs mimicking the role of RTUs that are interfaced with multiple sensors devices will be deployed to serve as a critical component of fossil power plant and the performance metrics such as throughput, latency, bootstrapping time, etc., will be evaluated on the testbed.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Exploration with Scalable Gaussian Process Reinforcement Learning

Exploration is a challenging problem in reinforcement learning (RL), especially in environments with sparse rewards. Quantifying and utilizing the parametric uncertainty has been shown to be paramount for successful exploration [Osband et al., 2018]. Bayesian, or approximately Bayesian, methods present a principled means of estimating the parametric uncertainty in RL problems. Gaussian processes, nonparametric Bayesian models, are often impractical due to poor scalability and computational bottlenecks. We introduce a scalable Gaussian process RL (GPRL) method which directly induces sparsity in the covariance matrix to facilitate faster computation. This is a departure from previous GPRL methods which instead rely on data reduction and subsampling. We compare various covariance-based exploration techniques (Thompson sampling, upper confidence bound, and probabilistic maximum variance) which leverage our scalable GP framework in sparse reward environments. Finally, we show favorable comparison against the bootstrapped deep Q-Network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Iron-Chromium-Aluminum Accident Tolerant Fuel Concept Source Term Accident Sequence Analysis - High Burnup Fuel Source Term Accident Sequence Analysis Supplement

To extend NUREG-1465 and high burnup fuel source term (SAND2023-01313) recommendations, representative radiological releases to containment – patterned after NUREG-1465 – have been evaluated for LWRs utilizing iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloys in place of zirconium-based alloys in major core structures (cladding and fuel canisters) and high burnup fuel with enrichments of 8% and 10% for PWRs and BWRs, respectively. Representative radionuclide releases are generated for this accident tolerant fuel concept by applying non-parametric bootstrap methods to MELCOR simulation results. Accident scenarios considered in this analysis include principle contributors to historical core damage frequency estimates for a range of nuclear reactor technologies representative of the operating U.S.A. fleet of nuclear reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗