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Anomalous Heat Budgets in the Interior Pacific Ocean on Seasonal- to -Timescales and Gyre Spacescales

This study quantifies uncertainties in closing the seasonal cycle of diabatic heat storage over the Pacific Ocean from 20 degrees S to 60 degrees N through the synthesis of World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) products over 7 years from 1993-1999. We utilize WOCE reanalysis products from the following sources: diabatic heat storage (DHS) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO); near-surface geostrophic and Ekman currents from the Earth and Space Research (ESR); and air-sea heat fluxes from Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and European Center for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We interpolate these products onto a common grid, allowing the seasonal cycle of DHS to be modeled for comparison with that observed. Everywhere latent heat flux residuals dominate sensible heat flux residuals and shortwave heat flux residuals dominate longwave heat flux residuals, both comparable in magnitude to the residual horizontal heat advection. We find the root-mean-square (RMS) of the differences between observed and model residual DHS tendencies to be less than 15 W per square meters everywhere except in the Kuroshio extension. Comparable COADS and NCEP products perform better than ECMWF products in the extra-tropics, while the NCEP product performs best in the tropics. Radiative and turbulent air-sea heat flux residuals computed from ship-born measurements perform better than those computed from satellite cloud and wind measurements. Since the RMS differences derive largely from biases in measured wind speed and cloud fraction, least-squares minimization is used to correct the residual Ekman heat advection and air-sea heat flux. Minimization reduces RMS differences less than 5 W per square meters except in the Kuroshio extension, suggesting how winds, clouds, and exchange coefficients in the NCEP, ECMWF, and ESR products can be improved.

White, Warren↗

Quantifying albedo susceptibility biases in shallow clouds

The evaluation of radiative forcing associated with aerosol–cloud interactions remains a significant source of uncertainty in future climate projections. The problem is confounded by the fact that aerosol particles influence clouds locally and that averaging to larger spatial and/or temporal scales carries biases that depend on the heterogeneity and spatial correlation of the interacting fields and the nonlinearity of the responses. Mimicking commonly applied satellite data analyses for calculation of albedo susceptibility S o , we quantify S o aggregation biases using an ensemble of 127 large eddy simulations of marine stratocumulus. We explore the cloud field properties that control this spatial aggregation bias and quantify the bias for a large range of shallow stratocumulus cloud conditions manifesting a variety of morphologies and ranges of cloud fractions. We show that S o spatial aggregation biases can be on the order of hundreds of percent, depending on the methodology. Key uncertainties emanate from the typically applied adiabatic drop concentration N d retrieval, the correlation between aerosol and cloud fields, and the extent to which averaging reduces the variance in cloud albedo A c and N d . So biases are more often positive than negative and are highly correlated with biases in the liquid water path adjustment. Temporal aggregation biases are shown to offset spatial aggregation biases. Both spatial and temporal biases have significant implications for observationally based assessments of aerosol indirect effects and our inferences of underlying aerosol–cloud–radiation effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of Boundary-Layer Cumulus and Stratocumulus Clouds using a Cloud-Resolving Model With Low- and Third-Order Turbulence Closures

The effects of subgrid-scale condensation and transport become more important as the grid spacings increase from those typically used in large-eddy simulation (LES) to those typically used in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Incorporation of these effects can be achieved by a joint probability density function approach that utilizes higher-order moments of thermodynamic and dynamic variables. This study examines how well shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds are simulated by two versions of a CRM that is implemented with low-order and third-order turbulence closures (LOC and TOC) when a typical CRM horizontal resolution is used and what roles the subgrid-scale and resolved-scale processes play as the horizontal grid spacing of the CRM becomes finer. Cumulus clouds were mostly produced through subgrid-scale transport processes while stratocumulus clouds were produced through both subgrid-scale and resolved-scale processes in the TOC version of the CRM when a typical CRM grid spacing is used. The LOC version of the CRM relied upon resolved-scale circulations to produce both cumulus and stratocumulus clouds, due to small subgrid-scale transports. The mean profiles of thermodynamic variables, cloud fraction and liquid water content exhibit significant differences between the two versions of the CRM, with the TOC results agreeing better with the LES than the LOC results. The characteristics, temporal evolution and mean profiles of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds are weakly dependent upon the horizontal grid spacing used in the TOC CRM. However, the ratio of the subgrid-scale to resolved-scale fluxes becomes smaller as the horizontal grid spacing decreases. The subcloud-layer fluxes are mostly due to the resolved scales when a grid spacing less than or equal to 1 km is used. The overall results of the TOC simulations suggest that a 1-km grid spacing is a good choice for CRM simulation of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

Using ISCCP Weather States to Decompose Cloud Radiative Effects

The presentation will examine the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect CRE (aka "cloud radiative forcing") at the top-of-the-atmosphere and surface of ISCCP weather states (aka "cloud regimes") in three distinct geographical zones, one tropical and two mid-latitude. Our goal is to understand and quantify the contribution of the different cloud regimes to the planetary radiation budget. In the tropics we find that the three most convectively active states are the ones with largest SW, LW and net TOA CRE contributions to the overall daytime tropical CRE budget. They account for 59%, 71% and 55% of the total CRE, respectively. The boundary layer-dominated weather states account for only 34% of the total SW CRE and 41% of the total net CRE, so to focus only on them in cloud feedback studies may be imprudent. We also find that in both the northern and southern midlatitude zones only two weather states, the first and third most convectively active with large amounts of nimbostratus-type clouds, contribute ",40% to both the SW and net TOA CRE budgets, highlighting the fact that cloud regimes associated with frontal systems are not only important for weather (precipitation) but also for climate (radiation budget). While all cloud regimes in all geographical zones have a slightly larger SFC than TOA SW CRE, implying cooling of the surface and slight warming of the atmosphere, their LW radiative effects are more subtle: in the tropics the weather states with plentiful high clouds warm the atmosphere while those with copious amounts of low clouds cool the atmosphere. In both midlatitude zones only the weather states with peak cloud fractions at levels above 440 mbar warm the atmosphere while all the rest cool it. These results make the connection of the contrasting CRE effects to the atmospheric dynamics more explicit - "storms" tend to warm the atmosphere whereas fair weather clouds cool it, suggesting a positive feedback of clouds on weather systems. The breakdown of CRE by cloud regime are however not entirely similar between the two midlatitude zones. Despite the existence of an additional state in the nort!lern midlatitudes, only four weather states have net daytime CREs with absolute values above 100 Watts per square meter compared to six in the south. This reminds us that the environment where clouds occur also has a crucial role in determining their radiative effects. All the above make evident that reproducing grand averages of current CRE by climate models in only part of the challenge. If existing cloud regimes and shifts in their distributions and frequency of occurrence in a changed climate are not properly simulated, the radiative role of clouds will not be adequately predicted.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

The effect of brokenness on cloud-climate sensitivity

A study has been made of the effect of brokenness on the infrared and albedo feedback of clouds in climate models using a simplified treatment of broken cloudiness. It is shown that the individual feedback terms computed using the plane-parallel assumption differ markedly from the computations performed for a regular array of cuboidal clouds. If the cloudiness changes such that clear areas become cloudy but the nature of the broken cloud field remains unchanged, then both the feedbacks are magnified, the infrared more so than the albedo. However, if individual elements in the cloud field are increased horizontally in a constrained area, the feedbacks can be enhanced or diminished depending on the cloud fraction and aspect ratio of the elements. It is also shown that, in the global average, the ratio of the change in outgoing infrared flux to global albedo, as deduced from satellite measurements, will be larger than model simulations using planiform clouds.

Harshvardhan, MR.↗

Large-Eddy Simulations of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Associated with Cold-Air Outbreaks during the ACTIVATE Campaign. Part II: Aerosol–Meteorology–Cloud Interaction

Aerosol effects on micro/macrophysical properties of marine stratocumulus clouds over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) are investigated using in situ measurements and large-eddy simulations (LES) for two cold-air outbreak (CAO) cases (28 February and 1 March 2020) during the Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). The LES is able to reproduce the vertical profiles of liquid water content (LWC), effective radius reff and cloud droplet number concentration Nc from fast cloud droplet probe (FCDP) in situ measurements for both cases. Furthermore, we show that aerosols affect cloud properties (N c , r eff , and LWC) via the prescribed bulk hygroscopicity of aerosols (¯k) and aerosol size distribution characteristics. N c , r eff , and liquid water path (LWP) are positively correlated to ¯κ and aerosol number concentration (N a ) while cloud fractional cover (CFC) is insensitive to ¯κ and aerosol size distributions for the two cases. The realistic changes to aerosol size distribution (number concentration, width, and the geometrical diameter) with the same meteorology state allow us to investigate aerosol effects on cloud properties without meteorological feedback. We also use the LES results to evaluate cloud properties from two reanalysis products, ERA5 and MERRA-2. Compared to LES, the ERA5 is able to capture the time evolution of LWP and total cloud coverage within the study domain during both CAO cases while MERRA-2 underestimates them.

Cloud forcing↗

The Seasonal Evolution of Atmospheric Vertical Structure of Smoke and Humidity Over the Southeast Atlantic Biomass Burning Region

The atmosphere over the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) sees a consistent springtime biomass burning (BB) smoke from widespread agricultural fires on the African continent. This smoke layer is initially lofted high in a continental mixed layer (~5-6km) and is then transported westward in the free troposphere, where it overlies and ultimately mixes into the SEA stratocumulus-topped oceanic boundary layer. Coincident with this smoke is an elevated humidity signal which is present from the time a given airmass is over the continental source region; this correlation is persistent through the biomass burning season, although varying through the course of the season. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) was a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital mission with the goal of measuring aerosol, cloud, and atmospheric properties over this region during three deployments in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018. We use the ORACLES observations to assess this smoke-vapor relationship. First, we discuss the good agreement between the airborne ORACLES dataset and the ECMWF ERA5 and CAMS reanalyses, as well as results from NASA’s MERRA-2, as seen over the three deployment years. We then use the reanalyses to develop a framework in which to understand more broadly the radiative and dynamical interactions between the elevated smoke and water vapor over the SEA through the biomass burning season, beyond the three ORACLES observation periods. Looking at seven years of reanalysis data for the BB season, we find distinct variations between each month/deployment in terms of vertical smoke distribution and correlation to atmospheric specific humidity, due to changing conditions through the BB season. Using k-means clustering of these climatological reanalyses, we identify six canonical atmospheric profile types of varying total atmospheric humidity and vertical structure and describe their changing incidence spatially and throughout the season, and six analogous profile types for carbon monoxide, allowing us to characterize the atmospheric structure of both vapor and BB over time throughout the SEA region. The radiative heating of both aerosol and water vapor has potential to influence the cloud-top entrainment and atmospheric turbulence, thus modifying the underlying stratocumulus cloud properties. We next discuss how these smoke-humidity variations influence both the low-cloud fraction (as observed by MODIS and VIIRS, and output by ERA5) and the boundary layer height in the region. This classification will ultimately allow for a more complete analysis of the broader radiative and dynamical effects of humid aerosols overlying stratocumulus clouds.

Kristina Marie Myers Pistone↗

Large-Eddy Simulations of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Associated with Cold-Air Outbreaks during the ACTIVATE Campaign. Part II: Aerosol–Meteorology–Cloud Interaction

Aerosol effects on micro/macrophysical properties of marine stratocumulus clouds over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) are investigated using in situ measurements and large-eddy simulations (LES) for two cold-air outbreak (CAO) cases (28 February and 1 March 2020) during the Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). The LES is able to reproduce the vertical profiles of liquid water content (LWC), effective radius r eff and cloud droplet number concentration N c from fast cloud droplet probe (FCDP) in situ measurements for both cases. Furthermore, we show that aerosols affect cloud properties (N c , r eff , and LWC) via the prescribed bulk hygroscopicity of aerosols ($\bar{κ}$) and aerosol size distribution characteristics. N c , r eff , and liquid water path (LWP) are positively correlated to $\bar{κ}$ and aerosol number concentration (N a ) while cloud fractional cover (CFC) is insensitive to $\bar{κ}$ and aerosol size distributions for the two cases. The realistic changes to aerosol size distribution (number concentration, width, and the geometrical diameter) with the same meteorology state allow us to investigate aerosol effects on cloud properties without meteorological feedback. We also use the LES results to evaluate cloud properties from two reanalysis products, ERA5 and MERRA-2. Compared to LES, the ERA5 is able to capture the time evolution of LWP and total cloud coverage within the study domain during both CAO cases while MERRA-2 underestimates them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Profiles of Radiative Fluxes at ENA

Profiles of radiative fluxes observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory along with the ancillary measurements are reported. The below-cloud drizzle properties were derived by combining the data from the ceilometer and Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) following the technique explained by Ghate et al. (2021 JAMC). The cloud and drizzle water path values were derived from the brightness temperatures reported by the microwave radiometer following the technique of Cadeddu et al. (2020 AMT). The cloud water path was then scaled to the KAZR-reported radar reflectivity to calculate profiles of liquid water content (LWC). Following the analysis from Ghate et al. (2023 JGR), cloud droplet effective radius was calculated using the number concentration value of 100 cm-3. The cloud properties, along with the thermodynamic properties, served as an input to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) to yield profiles of radiative fluxes at a 1-minute temporal and 50-m vertical resolution. The fluxes were then averaged to hourly temporal resolution for analysis. In Mitra et al. (2025 JClim), the calculated profiles were compared against those derived from the satellite measurements (SYN1deg). Flux profiles from the SYN1deg and the thermodynamic and cloud properties used for deriving them are also reported here. Both all-sky and clear-sky radiative flux profiles were calculated. Due to the large data volume, the surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes for the six-year period, and the hourly profiles of the radiative fluxes for January 2018, are submitted here. Full profiles of radiative fluxes calculated from the thermodynamic and cloud properties measured at the ENA site at 1-minute temporal and 50-m vertical resolution for a six-year period are available from the authors. Six files here correspond to the following data: 1_ENARAD_CERES_with_cld_amount_timeseries.nc: Time-series of hourly values of RRTM-simulated values of upwelling and downwelling fluxes at the surface and TOA, observed boundary-layer cloud fractions, and upwelling and downwelling fluxes from the SYN1deg from July 2015 to January 2022. 2_CERES_2018_at_CERES_levels.nc: SYN1deg radiative fluxes at six levels for the year 2018. 3_ENARad_2018_at_CERES_levels.nc: RRTM calculated fluxes at the SYN1deg vertical levels for the year 2018. 4_ENARad_rrtminputs_hourly_201801.nc: Thermodynamic and cloud properties used as an input to the RRTM for January 2018. 5_CERES_inputs_hourly_201801.nc: Thermodynamic and cloud properties utilized by SYN1deg algorithm for January 2018. 6_ENARAD_hourly_201801.nc: Full profiles of hourly averaged radiative fluxes from the RRTM simulations for January 2018.

Atmosphere↗

Intraseasonal Variations in Tropical Deep Convection, Tropospheric Mean Temperature and Cloud-Induced Radiative Fluxes

Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20oN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

Ramey, Holly S.↗

Relationships Between Tropical Deep Convection, Tropospheric Mean Temperature and Cloud-Induced Radiative Fluxes on Intraseasonal Time Scales

Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20oN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

Ramey, Holly S.↗

Relationships Between Tropical Deep Convection, Tropospheric Mean Temperature and Cloud-Induced Radiative Fluxes on Intraseasonal Time Scales

Intraseasonal variability of deep convection represents a fundamental mode of variability in the organization of tropical convection. While most studies of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) have focused on the spatial propagation and dynamics of convectively coupled circulations, we examine the projection of ISOs on the tropically-averaged temperature and energy budget. The area of interest is the global oceans between 20degN/S. Our analysis then focuses on these questions: (i) How is tropospheric temperature related to tropical deep convection and the associated ice cloud fractional amount (ICF) and ice water path (IWP)? (ii) What is the source of moisture sustaining the convection and what role does deep convection play in mediating the PBL - free atmospheric temperature equilibration? (iii) What affect do convectively generated upper-tropospheric clouds have on the TOA radiation budget? Our methodology is similar to that of Spencer et al., (2007) with some modifications and some additional diagnostics of both clouds and boundary layer thermodynamics. A composite ISO time series of cloud, precipitation and radiation quantities built from nearly 40 events during a six-year period is referenced to the atmospheric temperature signal. The increase of convective precipitation cannot be sustained by evaporation within the domain, implying strong moisture transports into the tropical ocean area. While there is a decrease in net TOA radiation that develops after the peak in deep convective rainfall, there seems little evidence that an "Infrared Iris"- like mechanism is dominant. Rather, the cloud-induced OLR increase seems largely produced by weakened convection with warmer cloud tops. Tropical ISO events offer an accessible target for studying ISOs not just in terms of propagation mechanisms, but on their global signals of heat, moisture and radiative flux feedback processes.

Ramey, Holly S.↗

Shallow cumuli cover and its uncertainties from ground-based lidar–radar data and sky images

Cloud cover estimates of single-layer shallow cumuli obtained from narrow field-of-view (FOV) lidar–radar and wide-FOV total sky imager (TSI) data are compared over an extended period (2000–2017 summers) at the established United States Atmospheric Radiation Measurement mid-continental Southern Great Plains site. We quantify the impacts of two factors on hourly and sub-hourly cloud cover estimates: (1) instrument-dependent cloud detection and data merging criteria and (2) FOV configuration. Enhanced observations at this site combine the advantages of the ceilometer, micropulse lidar (MPL) and cloud radar in merged data products. Data collected by these three instruments are used to calculate narrow-FOV cloud fraction (CF) as a temporal fraction of cloudy returns within a given period. Sky images provided by TSI are used to calculate the wide-FOV fractional sky cover (FSC) as a fraction of cloudy pixels within a given image. To assess the impact of the first factor on CF obtained from the merged data products, we consider two additional subperiods (2000–2010 and 2011–2017 summers) that mark significant instrumentation and algorithmic advances in the cloud detection and data merging. We demonstrate that CF obtained from ceilometer data alone and FSC obtained from sky images provide the most similar and consistent cloud cover estimates; hourly bias and root-mean-square difference (RMSD) are within 0.04 and 0.12, respectively. However, CF from merged MPL–ceilometer data provides the largest estimates of the multiyear mean cloud cover, about 0.12 (35 %) and 0.08 (24 %) greater than FSC for the first and second subperiods, respectively. CF from merged ceilometer–MPL–radar data has the strongest subperiod dependence with a bias of 0.08 (24 %) compared to FSC for the first subperiod and shows no bias for the second subperiod. The strong period dependence of CF obtained from the combined ceilometer–MPL–radar data is likely results from a change in what sensors are relied on to detect clouds below 3 km. After 2011, the MPL stopped being used for cloud top height detection below 3 km, leaving the radar as the only sensor used in cloud top height retrievals. To quantify the FOV impact, a narrow-FOV FSC is derived from the TSI images. We demonstrate that FOV configuration does not modify the bias but impacts the RMSD (0.1 hourly, 0.15 sub-hourly). In particular, the FOV impact is significant for sub-hourly observations, where 41 % of narrow- and wide-FOV FSC differ by more than 0.1. A new “quick-look” tool is introduced to visualize impacts of these two factors through integration of CF and FSC data with novel TSI-based images of the spatial variability in cloud cover. The influence of cloud field organization, such cloud streets parallel to the wind direction, on narrow- and wide-FOV cloud cover estimates can be visually assessed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CMDV (CM)4 Project - University of Washington contribution. Final report

The original goal of this project was to diagnose and improve CLUBB, the turbulence and cloud fraction parameterization used in DOE’s E3SM model. For this purpose, we planned to use large-eddy simulation (LES) and ARM observations from the NE Pacific Ocean and the SGP site, in coordination with ARM’s LASSO program. It was determined that for these cloud regimes, many of the turbulent ‘moment closures’ which underlie CLUBB’s mathematical formulation are inconsistent with LES, which is an appropriate benchmark for testing this. The research assistant found that these closures could be more accurately formulated using machine learning using the LES as a training dataset. However the resulting parameterization proved to quickly drift away from physical plausibility. A novel machine-learning based boundary layer parameterization called MARBLE based on matching the time evolution of a parameterized cloud-topped boundary layer to reanalysis was then developed and published.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure and Variability of Water Vapor in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

Upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) has been synoptically mapped via an algorithm that rejects small-scale undersampled variance, which is intrinsic to asymptotic measurements of water vapor, cloud, and other convective properties. Mapped distributions of UTH have been used, jointly with high-resolution Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), to study how the upper troposphere is humidified. The time-mean distribution of UTH is spatially correlated to the time-mean distribution of cold cloud fraction (eta)(sub c) (T < than 230 K). Regions of large UTH coincide with regions of large eta(sub c), which mark deep convection. They also coincide with regions of reduced vertical stability, in which the vertical gradient of theta is weakened by convective mixing. Coldest cloud cover is attended convective overshoots above the local tropopause, which is simultaneously coldest and highest. Together, these features reflect the upper-troposphere being ventilated by convection, which mixes in moist air from lower levels. Histograms of UTH and eta(sub c) have been applied to construct the joint probability density function, which quantifies the relationship between these properties. The expected value of UTH in convective regions is strongly correlated to the expected value of eta(sub c). In ensembles of asymptotic samples, the correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] exceeds 0.80. As these expectations reflect the most likely values, the strong correlation between epsilon[UTH] and epsilon[eta(sub c)] indicates that the large-scale organization of UTH is strongly shaped by convective pumping of moisture from lower levels. The same relationship holds for unsteady fields - even though, instantaneously, those fields are comprised almost entirely of small-scale convective structure. The spatial autocorrelation of UTH, constructed at high resolution from overpass data along ascending and descending tracks of the orbit, is limited to only a couple of degrees in the horizontal. This mirrors the spatial autocorrelation of eta(sub c), which likewise operates coherently on short scales. The short correlation scale of UTH, which reflects the scale of individual convective systems, is comparable to the spacing of retrievals from MLS. These scales are undersampled in the asynoptic measurements. Despite their prevalence, the mapping algorithm described above successfully recovers synoptic behavior operating coherently on large scales. It reveals eastward migration of anomalous UTH from the Indian ocean to the central Pacific, in association with the modulation of convection by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Salby, Murry L.↗

Structure and Variability of Water Vapor in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

An algorithm has been developed to synoptically-map asynoptic measurements, while rejecting small-scale under-sampled variance that is intrinsic to satellite measurements of water vapor, cloud, and other convective properties. The algorithm has been validated against high-resolution Global Cloud Imagery (GCI) , constructed from 6 satellites simultaneously viewing the global convective pattern. It has been applied to synoptically map Upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) from UARS/MLS. Mapped distributions of UTH have been used, jointly with the GCI, to study how the upper troposphere is humidified. The time-mean distribution of UTH is spatially correlated to the time-mean distribution of cold cloud fraction eta(sub c) (T less than 230 K). Regions of large UTH coincide with regions of large eta(sub c), which mark deep convection. They also coincide with regions of reduced vertical stability, in which the vertical gradient of Theta is weakened by convective mixing. Coldest cloud cover is attended convective overshoots above the local tropopause, which is simultaneously coldest and highest. Together, these features reflect the upper-troposphere being ventilated by convection, which mixes in air from lower levels.

Salby, Murry L.↗

Early Results from AIRS/AMSU/HSB

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 5, 2002, together with AMSU A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infiared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU/HSB are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. The sounding goals of AIRS are to produce 1 km tropospheric layer mean temperatures with an rms error of lK, and layer precipitable water with an rms error of 20%, in cases with up to 80% effective cloud cover. Pre-launch simulation studies indicated that these results should be achievable. Minor modifications have been made to the pre-launch retrieval algorithm as described in this paper. Sample fields of parameters retrieved from AIRS/AMSU/HSB data are presented and validated as a function of retrieved fractional cloud cover. As in simulation, the degradation of retrieval accuracy with increasing cloud cover is small. Select fields are also compared to those contained in the ECMWF analysis, done without the benefit of AIRS data, to demonstrate information that AIRS can add to that already contained in the ECMWF analysis.

Susskind, Joel↗

Analysis of contrasting aerosol indirect effects in liquid water clouds over the northern part of Arabian Sea

The extensive daily statistics of aerosol properties, cloud properties, and their mutual correlations provide crucial information for better assessing future climate change. Here, in this paper, 14 years (2010–2023) of data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are analyzed over the northern part of Arabian Sea (Latitude: 21°–25° N and Longitude: 62°–68° E) to assess the characteristics of aerosols and clouds and their relationships under different meteorological conditions. When aerosol optical depth (AOD) is less than ~0.7, the observations exhibit a positive correlation between AOD and cloud droplet effective radius (CDR) but negative correlations between AOD and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), between AOD and cloud optical depth (COD), between AOD and cloud liquid water path (CLWP), and between AOD and cloud geometrical thickness (H). The corresponding aerosol-cloud correlations change signs when the AOD values are larger than 0.7. However, the single folded positive AOD-cloud fraction (CF) relationship is observed in both AOD regimes. Similar correlations are also observed between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and CDR, CDNC, COD, H, CF and CLWP, together with a positive correlation between PWV and AOD. Further isolation of the environmental effects from aerosol effects by stratifying AOD and cloud data into different LTS and PWV bins shows that the signature of the well-known Twomey effect is observed under high LTS-high PWV conditions, while an opposite effect (anti-Twomey) is observed under low PWV conditions, regardless of LTS values. Additionally, negative correlations between AOD and COD, AOD and CLWP, and AOD and H are observed under low LTS, regardless of PWV conditions, with a slight positive correlation when AOD >0.4 under high LTS and PWV conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗