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At least 361 records · Page 20

eROSITA study of the globular cluster 47 Tucanae

Here, we present the results of the analysis of five observations of the globular clutser 47 Tucanae (47 Tuc) with the extended Roentgen Survey with an Imaging Telescope Array (eROSITA) on board the Spektrum-Roentgen-Gamma (Spektr-RG, SRG). We study the X-ray population in the field of one of the most massive globular clusters in our Milky Way. We focused on the classification of point-like sources in the field of 47 Tuc. The unresolved dense core of 47 Tuc (1.7 radius) and also sources that show extended emission are excluded from this study. We applied different methods of X-ray spectral and timing analysis together with multi-wavelength studies to classify the X-rays sources in the field of 47 Tuc. We detected 888 point-like sources in the energy range of 0.2–5.0 keV. We identified 126 background active galactic nuclei and 25 foreground stars. One of the foreground stars is classified as a variable M dwarf. We also classified 14 X-ray sources as members of 47 Tuc, including one symbiotic star, two quiescent low-mass X-ray binaries, and four cataclysmic variables. There are also five X-ray sources that can either be a cataclysmic variable or a contact binary, and also one X-ray source can be an active binary (type RS CVn). We identified one X-ray binary that belongs to the Small Magellanic Cloud. Moreover, we calculated the X-ray luminosity function of 47 Tuc. No significant population that seems to belong to the globular cluster is observed in the energy range of 0.5–2.0 keV using eROSITA observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Aerosol hygroscopicity over the South-East Atlantic Ocean during the biomass burning season – Part 2: Influence of sea salt and burning conditions on CCN hygroscopicity

Biomass burning (BB) significantly influences cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations over the southeastern Atlantic; however, aerosol hygroscopicity (κ) – a key factor for CCN activation – remains poorly constrained during the BB season. This study investigates κ variability using in situ measurements from Ascension Island during the 2016 and 2017 BB seasons. Results show substantial monthly variability, with κ values lowest in August and increasing through October. On average, κ was significantly higher in 2017 (∼ 0.55) than in 2016 (∼ 0.33), suggesting that the aerosols in 2017 were more hygroscopic and more easily activated as CCN. Sulfate and sea salt were the two dominant contributors to κ and the primary drivers of its interannual variability. During the 2017 BB season, sulfate – the major inorganic component – accounted for ∼ 34 % of the submicron aerosol mass, while sea salt, estimated via κ-closure analysis, contributed ∼ 17 %. The higher κ in 2017 was largely attributed to increased sea salt, likely driven by stronger marine winds. Approximately 67 % of sulfate was linked to BB emissions. Variations in BB combustion efficiency, modulated by regional meteorology, influenced sulfate fraction and thus κ values. Specifically, higher relative humidity and lower wind speeds over BB source regions in 2017 favored smoldering combustion, explaining the higher sulfate fraction. Overall, the observed interannual differences in aerosol hygroscopicity reflect the combined impacts of BB combustion characteristics and sea salt emissions, underscoring the critical roles of both BB and marine aerosol sources in regulating aerosol-cloud interactions over the southeastern Atlantic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Near-Surface Variables in the HRRR Weather Model Using Observations from the ARM SGP Site

Abstract The performance of version 4 of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for near-surface variables, including wind, humidity, temperature, surface latent and sensible fluxes, and longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes, is examined over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) region. The study evaluated the model’s bias and bias-corrected mean absolute error relative to the observations on different time scales. Forecasts of near-surface geophysical variables at five SGP sites (HRRR at 3-km scale) were found to agree well with observations, but some consistent observation–forecast differences also occurred. Sensible and latent heat fluxes are the most challenging variables to be reproduced. The diurnal cycle is the main temporal scale affecting observation–forecast differences of the near-surface variables, and almost all of the variables showed different biases throughout the diurnal cycle. Results show that the overestimation of downward shortwave and the underestimation of downward longwave radiative flux are the two major biases found in this study. The timing and magnitude of downward longwave flux, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes are also different with contributions from model representations, data assimilation limitations, and differences in scales between HRRR and SGP sites. The positive bias in downward shortwave and negative bias in longwave radiation suggests that the model is underestimating cloud fraction in the study domain. The study concludes by showing a brief comparison with version 3 of the HRRR and shows that version 4 has better performance in almost all near-surface variables. Significance Statement A correct representation of the near-surface variables is important for numerical weather prediction models. This study investigates the capability of the latest NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv4) model in simulating the near-surface variables by comparing against the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) in situ observations. Among others, we find that the surface heat fluxes, such as sensible and latent heat fluxes, are the most difficult variables to be reproduced. This study also shows that the diurnal cycle has the dominant impact on the model’s performance, which means the majority of the outputted near-surface variables have the strong diurnal cycle in their bias errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing and Testing a Novel Stochastic Ice Microphysics Parameterization for Cloud and Climate Models Using ARM Field Campaign Data (Final Progress Report)

The major goals of this project were: 1) to use field campaign measurements from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program to characterize variability of important parameters describing properties of ice particles in the atmosphere; 2) based on this observational analysis, to develop a parameterization scheme for weather and climate models that stochastically varies these parameters, and implement the new scheme into a weather model called the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); 3) to use WRF coupled with the new stochastic scheme to simulate ARM field campaign thunderstorm cases and analyze how accounting for this parameter variability affects the model simulations. This work was performed jointly between the National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Oklahoma, and University of Utah. To accomplish these goals, we extended an approach previously developed to characterize the variability in the size distribution of ice particles to parameters that are explicitly represented in models (i.e., relationships between ice particle mass and size, and between particle fall velocity and size). Our project was, to our knowledge, the first to apply observationally-constrained estimates of this parameter variability describing mass-size and fall velocity-size in a modeling framework. Our results showed efficacy of the approach, evaluated using ARM observations. Similarly, to our knowledge, work in this project was the first to propose and evaluate in detail a stochastic approach for unresolved turbulent mixing in high-resolution model simulations against detailed, benchmark large eddy simulations and ARM observations. Results showed some promising behavior, particularly with increased mixing and dilution of air in thunderstorm cores with surrounding environmental air, bringing the stochastic simulations closer to the benchmark large eddy simulations; however, results were somewhat degraded using stochastic mixing compared to observations from the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign. This project also further refined and applied a modeling methodology called “piggybacking” that can robustly separate dynamical and thermodynamic impacts of model changes, and comparison studies of different models based on cases developed from ARM observations. Finally, this project directly supported three graduate students who completed their PhDs as well as a postdoctoral research fellow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Diverse Model Projections of Future Extreme El Niño

The majority of future projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show more frequent exceedances of the 5 mm day -1 rainfall threshold in the eastern equatorial Pacific rainfall during El Niño, previously described in the literature as an increase in “extreme El Niño events”; however, these exceedance frequencies vary widely across models, and in some projections actually decrease. Here we combine single-model large ensemble simulations with phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to diagnose the mechanisms for these differences. The sensitivity of precipitation to local SST anomalies increases consistently across CMIP-class models, tending to amplify extreme El Niño occurrence; however, changes to the magnitude of ENSO-related SST variability can drastically influence the results, indicating that understanding changes to SST variability remains imperative. Future El Niño rainfall intensifies most in models with 1) larger historical cold SST biases in the central equatorial Pacific, which inhibit future increases in local convective cloud shading, enabling more local warming; and 2) smaller historical warm SST biases in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, which enhance future reductions in stratus cloud, enabling more local warming. Additionally, these competing mechanisms complicate efforts to determine whether CMIP5 models under- or overestimate the future impacts of climate change on El Niño rainfall and its global impacts. However, the relation between future projections and historical biases suggests the possibility of using observable metrics as “emergent constraints” on future extreme El Niño, and a proof of concept using SSTA variance, precipitation sensitivity to SST, and regional SST trends is presented.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Probing Quantum Speed Limits with Ultracold Gases

Here, quantum speed limits (QSLs) rule the minimum time for a quantum state to evolve into a distinguishable state in an arbitrary physical process. These fundamental results constrain a notion of distance traveled by the quantum state, known as the Bures angle, in terms of the speed of evolution set by nonadiabatic energy fluctuations. I theoretically propose how to measure QSLs in an ultracold quantum gas confined in a time-dependent harmonic trap. In this highly-dimensional system of continuous variables, quantum tomography is prohibited. Yet, QSLs can be probed whenever the dynamics is self-similar by measuring as a function of time the cloud size of the ultracold gas. This makes it possible to determine the Bures angle and energy fluctuations, as I discuss for various ultracold atomic systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Droplet Number Concentration Value-Added Product

The ndrop_mfrsr value-added product (VAP) provides an estimate of the cloud droplet number concentration of overcast water clouds retrieved from cloud optical depth from the multi-filter rotating shadowband radiometer (MFRSR) instrument and liquid water path (LWP) retrieved from the microwave radiometer (MWR). When cloud layer information is available from vertically pointing lidar and radars in the Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) product, the VAP also provides estimates of the adiabatic LWP and an adiabatic parameter (beta) that indicates how divergent the LWP is from the adiabatic case. quality control (QC) flags (qc_drop_number_conc), an uncertainty estimate (drop_number_conc_toterr), and a cloud layer type flag (cloud_base_type) are useful indicators of the quality and accuracy of any given value of the retrieval. Examples of these major input and output variables are given in sample plots in section 6.0.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Boundary Layer Climatology at ARM Southern Great Plains

Operational since 1992, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) southern great plains (SGP) site at Oklahoma, USA has become a reference research site for meteorological studies. Due to an open data policy the ARM data are used by researchers all over the world. In this report, we review the long-term climatology of the atmospheric boundary layer, SGP instrumentations, the site and some site-specific atmospheric conditions which potentially effect wind turbines within the region. As the atmospheric boundary layer is bounded and influenced by the surface, observations of surface radiation components and heat fluxes are crucial in understanding land-atmosphere interactions. The entrainment of air, updrafts, downdrafts and boundary layer height characteristics is needed for understanding the structure and growth of the atmospheric boundary layer. Therefore, measurements from both surface in-situ and remote sensing observations at SGP provide an overall climatology and their interactions from surface up to the boundary layer. Measurements from a 60 m meteorological tower, surface flux stations, disdrometers, soil temperature and moisture flux plates, coherent Doppler lidar, Raman lidar, radiosondes, and satellite data at SGP central facility were analyzed. All the measurements were generally within a few square kilometers of each other at the central facility. This report focuses on data from January 2010 to June 2020 at SGP central facility. The various sections describe the ARM SGP site and surrounding wind turbines; in-situ and remote sensing instrumentation used in the report; provides mathematical equations to analyze fluxes, turbulence and other boundary layer parameters; a climatological analysis of surface winds, fluxes and thermodynamic parameters for several years; an analysis of observed winds in the framework of Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory; an analysis of the boundary layer winds and direction from a Doppler lidar; multi-year turbulence estimates through the boundary layer from a Doppler lidar; atmospheric boundary layer water vapor and relative humidity profiles from Raman lidar; cloud base height and boundary layer height from multiple sensors and satellite data; and finally site specific atmospheric conditions, such as nocturnal low-level jets. Diurnal, seasonal and yearly variations of surface, sub-surface and boundary layer quantities, such as wind speed, direction, temperature, atmospheric stability, soil temperature, and various atmospheric fluxes at SGP showed distinct trends useful for focused modeling studies. The applicability of surface similarity theory on ARM SGP data is also evaluated, which showed northerly flows are aligned with MO theory estimates compared to southerly flows. Boundary layer winds and direction profiles for several years from a Doppler lidar shows a consistent presence of a nocturnal low-level jet and predominant southerly wind directions through the boundary layer at SGP. The inter-annual variability at SGP is low (<3.5%), with a mean annual wind speed of approximately 7 m s -1 at 100 m above ground level. Boundary layer turbulence and moisture transport from Doppler and Raman lidars are evaluated, which provides evidence of increased water vapor mass flux into the great plains during nocturnal low-level jets. The moisture flux from nocturnal low-level jets is observed to be maximum during summer periods. A novel machine learning algorithm is implemented to accurately estimate the planetary boundary layer height, providing further insights into growth and destruction of the convective boundary layer height during various seasons and land-atmosphere conditions. The high frequency of low-level clouds during winter, spring and fall seasons is validated using the multi-sensor array and satellite estimates of cloud top height. Satellite vegetative fraction data provides insight into seasonal surface roughness and vegetation variability around SGP site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗

Cloud adjustments from large-scale smoke–circulation interactions strongly modulate the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition

Smoke from southern Africa blankets the southeastern Atlantic Ocean from June to October, producing strong and competing aerosol radiative effects. Smoke effects on the transition between overcast stratocumulus and scattered cumulus clouds are investigated along a Lagrangian (air-mass-following) trajectory in regional climate and large eddy simulation models. Results are compared with observations from three recent field campaigns that took place in August 2017: ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES), CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY), and Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC). The case study is set up around the joint ORACLES–CLARIFY flight that took place near Ascension Island on 18 August 2017. Smoke sampled upstream on an ORACLES flight on 15 August 2017 likely entrained into the marine boundary layer later sampled during the joint flight. The case is first simulated with the WRF-CAM5 regional climate model in three distinct setups: (1) FireOn, in which smoke emissions and any resulting smoke–cloud–radiation interactions are included; (2) FireOff, in which no smoke emissions are included; (3) RadOff, in which smoke emissions and their microphysical effects are included but aerosol does not interact directly with radiation. Over the course of the Lagrangian trajectory, differences in free tropospheric thermodynamic properties between FireOn and FireOff are nearly identical to those between FireOn and RadOff, showing that aerosol–radiation interactions are primarily responsible for the free tropospheric effects. These effects are non-intuitive: in addition to the expected heating within the core of the smoke plume, there is also a “banding” effect of cooler temperature (~1–2 K) and greatly enhanced moisture (>2 g kg -1 ) at the plume top. This banding effect is caused by a vertical displacement of the former continental boundary layer in the free troposphere in the FireOn simulation resulting from anomalous diabatic heating due to smoke absorption of sunlight that manifests primarily as a few hundred meters per day reduction in large-scale subsidence over the ocean. A large eddy simulation (LES) is then forced with free tropospheric fields taken from the outputs for the WRF-CAM5 FireOn and FireOff runs. Cases are run by selectively perturbing one variable (e.g., aerosol number concentration, temperature, moisture, vertical velocity) at a time to better understand the contributions from different indirect (microphysical), “large-scale” semi-direct (above-cloud thermodynamic and subsidence changes), and “local” semi-direct (below-cloud smoke absorption) effects. Despite a more than 5-fold increase in cloud droplet number concentration when including smoke aerosol concentrations, minimal differences in cloud fraction evolution are simulated by the LES when comparing the base case with a perturbed aerosol case with identical thermodynamic and dynamic forcings. A factor of 2 decrease in background free tropospheric aerosol concentrations from the FireOff simulation shifts the cloud evolution from a classical entrainment-driven “deepening–warming” transition to trade cumulus to a precipitation-driven “drizzle-depletion” transition to open cells, however. The thermodynamic and dynamic changes caused by the WRF-simulated large-scale adjustments to smoke diabatic heating strongly influence cloud evolution in terms of both the rate of deepening (especially for changes in the inversion temperature jump and in subsidence) and in cloud fraction on the final day of the simulation (especially for the moisture “banding” effect). Such large-scale semi-direct effects would not have been possible to simulate using a small-domain LES model alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Observations and Predictions of Daytime Planetary-Boundary-Layer Heights and Surface Meteorological Variables in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is an 18-month field campaign in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A., whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction forecasts in complex terrain. The WFIP2 campaign involved the deployment of a large suite of in situ and remote sensing instrumentation, including eight 915-MHz wind-profiling radars, and surface meteorological stations. The evolution and annual variability of the daytime convective planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) height is investigated using the wind-profiling radars. Three models with different horizontal grid spacing are evaluated: the Rapid Refresh, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, and its nested version. The results are used to assess errors in the prediction of PBL height within the experimental and control versions of the models, with the experimental versions including changes and additions to the model parametrizations developed during the field campaign, and the control version using the parametrizations present in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational version of the models at the start of the project. Results show that the high-resolution models outperform the low-resolution versions, the experimental versions perform better compared with the control versions, model PBL height estimations are more accurate on cloud-free days, and model estimates of the PBL height growth rate are more accurate than model estimates of the rate of decay. Finally, using surface sensors, we assess surface meteorological variables, finding improved surface irradiance and, to a lesser extent, improved 2-m temperature in the experimental version of the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing

Climate model simulations run under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) use an inhomogeneous biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emission dataset, which exhibits pronounced interannual variability from 1997–2014 due to the infusion of satellite data. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) with original and smoothed CMIP6 BBA forcings, we show that the CMIP6 data inhomogeneity causes spurious decadal subarctic land warming. During years with reduced aerosol concentrations, increased solar radiation can trigger abrupt subarctic permafrost thawing, increased soil water drainage, upper soil drying, and subsequent surface warming. This slow process, which is further amplified by nonlinear cloud-aerosol interactions, cannot be completely offset during years of increased aerosol fluxes, thereby reddening surface temperature spectra in response to large-amplitude interannual aerosol forcing. More generally, our CESM2 experiments identify a pathway for generating decadal variability in high latitudes, involving interannual shortwave forcing and slow nonlinear soil responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Microphysical Control and Spatial‐Temporal Variability of Warm Rain Probability Using CloudSat and MODIS Observations

Abstract By combining measurements from MODIS and the CloudSat radar, we develop a parameterization scheme to quantify the combined microphysical controls by liquid water path (LWP) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of the probability of precipitation (PoP) in marine low cloud over tropical oceans. We demonstrate that the spatial‐temporal variation of grid‐mean in‐cloud can be largely explained by the variation of the joint probability density function of LWP and CDNC in the phase space specified by the bivariate PoP (LWP and CDNC) function. Through a series of sensitivity tests guided by this understanding, we find that in the Southeastern Pacific and Atlantic the stratocumulus to cumulus transition of the is mainly due to the variation of CDNC while the annual cycle is mainly due to the variation of LWP. The results of this study provide a viable way to diagnose the root cause of warm rain problems in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Supercooled Liquid Water Detection Capabilities from Ka-Band Doppler Profiling Radars: Moment-Based Algorithm Formulation and Assessment

The occurrence of supercooled liquid water in mixed-phase cloud (MPC) affects their cloud microphysical and radiative properties. The prevalence of MPCs in the mid- and high latitudes translates these effects to significant contributions to Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle. The current study develops and assesses a radar-only, moment-based phase partition technique for the demarcation of supercooled liquid water volumes in arctic, MPC conditions. The study utilizes observations from the Ka band profiling radar, the collocated high spectral resolution lidar, and ambient temperature profiles from radio sounding deployments following a statistical analysis of 5.5 years of data (January 2014–May 2019) from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement observatory at the North Slope of Alaska. The ice/liquid phase partition occurs via a per-pixel, neighborhood-dependent algorithm based on the premise that the partitioning can be deduced by examining the mean values of locally sampled probability distributions of radar-based observables and then compare those against the means of climatologically derived, per-phase probability distributions. Analyzed radar observables include linear depolarization ratio (LDR), spectral width, and vertical gradients of reflectivity factor and radial velocity corrected for vertical air motion. Results highlight that the optimal supercooled liquid water detection skill levels are realized for the radar variable combination of spectral width and reflectivity vertical gradient, suggesting that radar-based polarimetry, in the absence of full LDR spectra, is not as critical as Doppler capabilities. The cloud phase masking technique is proven particularly reliable when applied to cloud tops with an Equitable Threat Score (ETS) of 65%; the detection of embedded supercooled layers remains much more uncertain (ETS = 27%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High resolution variability in wet deposition in the southeastern United States

Rainwater chemistry is determined by atmospheric pollutants and particles which vary spatially and temporally. Industrial and agricultural activities and meteorological events (e.g. sea breezes, severe weather, blowing dust) alter atmospheric particle and trace gas compositions. These gases and particles are scavenged by cloud and rain droplets that drive wet deposition. During an Intensive Operation Period (IOP) from April to October 2021, rainwater was collected at higher frequency intervals, usually daily, after precipitation events at three locations on the Savannah River Site (SRS). The farthest locations were separated by approximately 20 km. The mean concentration (μeq/L) of seven ions followed the Cl⁻ > SO 4 2− > Na⁺ > NO 3 ⁻ > K⁺ > Mg 2+ > Ca 2+ downward trend. Ion concentrations were compared to background ion concentrations from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP). The high frequency monthly averaged SRS data compared well with the monthly averaged NADP background but demonstrated extensive variability. In some months in 2021, the high frequency data compared better to the NADP site near the coast while in other months inland sites compared better. Strong spatial variability for ion concentrations was observed across SRS which was attributed to localized impacts in rainfall spatial variability. High frequency measurements allowed for comparison to regional weather patterns indicating influences from the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and cities. This can account for spatial variability in the wet deposition flux. Sea breezes, Saharan dust, and anthropogenic sources were shown to impact wet deposition flux variability. Higher frequency precipitation chemistry sampling at numerous locations better captures ion concentration variability and improves measurement representativeness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Managing Dynamic Workflows in BEE

BEE is a powerful tool for: Managing and visualizing scientific workflows; Simplifying workflow execution on HPC and cloud platforms. BEE supports much of the CWL specification. Did not support execution of complex ”scattering” workflows. By introducing the PseudoTask: Can generate tasks to run on variable number of inputs; BEE is another step closer to supporting the entire CWL specification; BEE can now support parallelized workflows with scattering tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

POPSnet-SGP: A Pilot Aerosol Microphysics Network for Targeting Climate Model Uncertainty Interim Field Campaign Report

Aerosols mediate the radiative fluxes in clear and cloudy skies and dominate the uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Relatively dense networks of aerosol optical depth measurements have been used to effectively constrain simulated aerosol optical properties, but model diversity of aerosol microphysical properties is much larger (Mann et al. 2014, Myhre et al. 2009). A better understanding of aerosol microphysics is essential as they are the fundamental pieces of information required to convert aerosol emissions information to radiative and cloud-nucleating properties that drive radiative effects and forcing of climate. Model representation of aerosol microphysical properties has lagged in part due to their inherently greater spatial variability, but also due to a lack of available observations. This project – the Printed Optical Particle Spectrometer Network (POPSnet)-Southern Great Plains (SGP) Pilot – launched the first spatially dense network of aerosol size distribution measurements over an area the size of a global model grid cell and demonstrated its use in providing valuable information regarding the spatial variability of aerosol microphysical properties and its drivers for improving model constraints.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗