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At least 361 records · Page 20

A Sustainability-Based Expert System for Additive Manufacturing and CNC Machining

The objective of this research study is to develop a set of expert systems that can aid metal manufacturing facilities in selecting binder jetting, direct metal laser sintering, or CNC machining based on viable products, processes, system parameters, and inherent sustainability aspects. For the purposes of this study, cost-effectiveness, energy, and auxiliary material usage efficiency were considered the key indicators of manufacturing process sustainability. The expert systems were developed using the knowledge automation software Exsys Corvid ® V6.1.3. The programs were verified by analyzing and comparing the sustainability impacts of binder jetting and CNC machining during the fabrication of a stainless steel 316L component. According to the results of this study, binder jetting is deemed to be characterized by more favorable indicators of sustainability in comparison to CNC machining, considering the fabrication of components feasible for each technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structural evolution of two-dimensional silicates using a “bond-switching” algorithm

Silicates are the most abundant materials in the earth's crust. In recent years, two-dimensional (2D) versions of them grown on metal supports (known as bilayer silicates) have allowed their study in detail down to the atomic scale. These structures are self-containing. Furthermore, they are not covalently bound to the metal support but interact with it through van der Waals forces. Like their three-dimensional counterparts, the 2D-silicates can form both crystalline and vitreous structures. Furthermore, the interconversion between vitreous to crystalline structures has been experimentally observed at the nanoscale. While theoretical work has been carried out to try to understand these transformations, a limitation for ab initio methods, and even molecular dynamics methods, is the computational cost of studying large systems and long timescales. In this work, we present a simple and computationally inexpensive approach, that can be used to represent the evolution of bilayer silicates using a bond-switching algorithm. This approach allows reaching equilibrium ring size distributions as a function of a parameter that can be related to the ratio between temperature and the energy required for the bond-switching event. The ring size distributions are compared to experimental data available in the literature.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Geographic analysis of multiple sensor data from the NASA/USGS earth resources program

Qualitative and quantitative analyses were made of multi-sensor data acquired during aircraft missions. While the principal analysis effort was concentrated on imagery taken over test sites in Southern California, data were also studied from records acquired on missions over test sites at Phoenix, Chicago, Asheville, and New Orleans. The objectives of the analyses were: (1) to determine the capabilities of ten remote sensors in identifying the elements of information necessary in conducting geographic investigations in land use analysis, urban problems, surface energy budget, and soil moisture; (2) to determine the feasibility of using these sensors for these purposes at orbital altitudes; and (3) to collate and analyze ground and air data previously collected and assemble it in a format useful in the accomplishment of cost effectiveness studies.

Pascucci, R. F.↗

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Detailed Simulation Datasets Quantifying U.S. DOE VTO/HFTO R&D Benefits Across Light- to Heavy-Duty Vehicles

For more than 20 years, Argonne National Laboratory’s Vehicle & Mobility Systems Department has assessed how R&D investments by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Transportation Technologies Office and Alternative Fuels and Feedstocks Office affect vehicle energy use and cost. The analyses are performed using Autonomie, Argonne’s full-vehicle simulation tool for energy consumption, performance, and cost. The study covers five time frames ranging from present day through 2050, with more than 30 vehicle classes and applications (10 light duty and >20 medium and heavy duty), as well as six powertrain configurations (conventional, start-stop, hybrid electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery-electric vehicle, and fuel cell electric vehicle) and five fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and electricity). Low and high technology uncertainty scenarios have been considered to capture a realistic range of outcomes. The resulting datasets include the assumptions used (i.e., efficiency, $/kWh), vehicle-level data (power, energy, weight, and cost), and outputs such as energy consumption, manufacturer’s suggested retail price, and total cost of ownership. These data are critical to stakeholders working in transportation, technology assessment, and long-term R&D planning.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Brilliant Execution of Smart Labs: Employing Best Practices to Improve Safety and Reduce Energy for Sustainable Labs: Preprint

Laboratory buildings often dominate the energy use on research campuses, consuming three to four times the energy of a typical office building. In most cases, these facilities are defined as “mission critical,” with excessive energy use as simply an unfortunate truth that cannot be avoided without compromising safety. However, case studies indicate cost savings opportunities of up to 40% in laboratories (compared to standard practices) by employing energy efficient design strategies that also improve the safety of lab spaces (Better Buildings 2018). To help stakeholders implement improvement measures, the Smart Labs Toolkit describes a proven approach to optimizing performance of laboratories and critical control environments in new or existing facilities. The Toolkit outlines distinct phases for building a successful Smart Labs program that include: Plan, Assess, Optimize, and Manage. Each phase has specific tasks, training videos, and resources to educate users, support the efforts of key stakeholders, and maximize benefits for the organization in implementing high-performance labs. The Toolkit also includes case studies from the 17 Better Buildings Smart Labs Accelerator partners, sharing lessons learned and supporting the Smart Labs approach to safe, efficient world class science. This paper reviews the technology choices for implementing Smart Labs ventilation strategies, controls, and other efficiency measures. Better Building Smart Lab Accelerator partners provide case study examples of safety and energy-savings results of using Smart Labs approaches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Duke Energy Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study: Capacity Expansion Findings and Production Cost Modeling Plan [Slides]

This presentation highlights initial results from the NREL's Low-Carbon Integration study for Duke Energy. Specifically the presentation focuses on preliminary findings from the ReEDS capacity expansion model for the Carolinas. In addition, the presentation also introduces initial plans for the production cost modeling stage of the work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Plant-wide modeling and techno-economic analysis of a direct non-oxidative methane dehydroaromatization process via conventional and microwave-assisted catalysis

Direct non-oxidative methane dehydroaromatization (DHA) process via conventional and microwave (MW)-assisted thermo-catalytic catalysis is studied. Rate models for methane DHA reactions, including the effect of catalyst deactivation, are developed by using the in-house experimental data. Model results for gas concentration profile and catalyst deactivation are in good agreement with the experimental data. This rate model is then used for the development of dynamic multi-scale, multi-physics commercial-scale reactor models. Total number of fixed bed reactors desired for a cyclic steady state process is estimated. Plant-wide models are then developed for conventional and MW-assisted processes for producing products of desired specifications. Techno-economic analysis of the methane DHA process is undertaken. Economics of these methane DHA processes are compared with the typical multi-step natural gas to aromatics production process via methanol synthesis. Sensitivity of internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) to various economic and process parameters such as plant scale, desired rate of return, reactor cost, feedstock and utility cost, catalyst variable cost, and MW reactor cost is studied. Here, electric equivalent efficiency of the conventional methane DHA process is found to be 69.2 % and 67.3 % at 750 °C and 800 °C, respectively, while the MW-assisted methane DHA process has the electric equivalent efficiency of 48.9 % at 800 °C. IRRs of the conventional methane DHA process at 750 °C and 800 °C, and MW-assisted process are 15.2 %, 17.5 %, and 18.8 %, respectively for a methane feed flowrate of 19,782 kg/h, while the IRR of the multi-step natural gas to aromatics production process is estimated to be 0 % for the same plant scale. Impact of change in the methane price, electricity price, and catalyst cost is found to be considerable on the process economics, while the cost of the MW reactor is found to have negligible impact.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing the levelized cost of energy in South Korea

This study evaluates the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for various energy technologies in the Republic of Korea (Korea) from 2023 to 2050, highlighting cost trajectories and potential crossovers among competing technologies. The analysis projects that, based on our set of assumptions, utility-scale photovoltaic systems achieve lower LCOEs than nuclear by 2030, while fixed offshore wind is expected to become cost-competitive with coal-fired generation around the same time. Floating offshore wind is projected to reach cost parity with coal in the late 2030s. Co-firing with natural gas and green hydrogen is identified as the highest-cost generation option due to high natural gas and green fuel costs and declining capacity utilization. This study further examines the potential for hybrid systems that integrate renewable energy with energy storage to serve as flexible, cost-effective, zero-emission alternatives to green hydrogen-based generation. Spatial LCOE assessments indicate that near-shore offshore wind sites may achieve lower costs despite modest capacity factors, contingent on site-specific factors such as grid integration and social acceptance. The findings indicate that renewable energy technologies are expected to experience continued cost declines, with solar photovoltaic becoming the most competitive energy source in Korea by 2030–2035. Incorporating social costs accelerates this shift from conventional alternatives.

Green hydrogen↗

Distributed intelligence for ground/space systems

DI is short for Distributed Intelligence for Ground/Space Systems and the DI Study is one in a series of ESA projects concerned with the development of new concepts and architectures for future autonomous spacecraft systems. The kick-off of DI was in January 1994 and the planned duration is three years. The background of DI is the desire to design future ground/space systems with a higher degree of autonomy than seen in today's missions. The aim of introducing autonomy in spacecraft systems is to: (1) lift the role of the spacecraft operators from routine work and basic troubleshooting to supervision; (2) ease access to and increase availability of spacecraft resources; (3) carry out basic mission planning for users; (4) enable missions which have not yet been feasible due to eg. propagation delays, insufficient ground station coverage etc.; and (5) possibly reduce mission cost. The study serves to identify the feasibility of using state-of-the-art technologies in the area of planning, scheduling, fault detection using model-based diagnosis and knowledge processing to obtain a higher level of autonomy in ground/space systems.

Aarup, Mads↗

Software for Collaborative Engineering of Launch Rockets

The Rocket Evaluation and Cost Integration for Propulsion and Engineering software enables collaborative computing with automated exchange of information in the design and analysis of launch rockets and other complex systems. RECIPE can interact with and incorporate a variety of programs, including legacy codes, that model aspects of a system from the perspectives of different technological disciplines (e.g., aerodynamics, structures, propulsion, trajectory, aeroheating, controls, and operations) and that are used by different engineers on different computers running different operating systems. RECIPE consists mainly of (1) ISCRM a file-transfer subprogram that makes it possible for legacy codes executed in their original operating systems on their original computers to exchange data and (2) CONES an easy-to-use filewrapper subprogram that enables the integration of legacy codes. RECIPE provides a tightly integrated conceptual framework that emphasizes connectivity among the programs used by the collaborators, linking these programs in a manner that provides some configuration control while facilitating collaborative engineering tradeoff studies, including design to cost studies. In comparison with prior collaborative-engineering schemes, one based on the use of RECIPE enables fewer engineers to do more in less time.

Stanley, Thomas Troy↗

Market analysis for the integration of new power technologies: A case study of the deployment of hybrid fossil-based generator plus energy storage (ES-FE)

This study examines the national landscape of hybridized fossil energy (FE) power plants with energy storage (ES) technologies (“ES-FE”) and presents the compilation of an ES-FE dataset, which includes over 65 ES-FE projects and concepts in the United States, comprising approximately 500 MWh of co-located ES capacity with FE power plants. This study also estimates the economic feasibility of adding ES to existing FE power plants by characterizing the potential revenues that can be generated by the ES component through flexibility and capacity value. The analysis focuses on ES technologies with 2- to 10-h. durations located in four U.S. independent system operators (ISOs): Midcontinent ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), PJM Interconnection (PJM), and California ISO (CAISO), which have +70,000 MW of combined FE power capacity that could add ES. Annual revenues are estimated for the ES component using a what-if-analysis approach, for capacity value, price arbitrage, or ancillary services provision. The results show that annual revenues depend on the end-use storage service, wholesale electricity and capacity market prices, and ES technology operation parameters such as discharging duration and cycling frequency. When performing a sensitivity analysis, ES accrues $7–178/kW-yr. via price arbitrage and ancillary services provision in the four ISOs, and $13–92/kW-yr. when providing capacity value only in MISO and PJM. A cash flow analysis is performed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of the ES addition using a range of ES costs. The study finds that for most ES technologies considered, these revenues alone are insufficient to achieve economic feasibility. In conclusion, of the 1645 total runs analyzed, 115 had positive NPVs (7%). Therefore, other revenue streams or monetizable benefits are necessary to achieve the break-even point.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Million Worker Study

Radiation health issues have been an important aspect of DOE's Worker Safety and Health programs. The goal is to ensure that workers are adequately protected from the various radiological hazards associated with DOE sites and operations. Since the early 1940’s DOE has supported the conduct of epidemiologic studies of practically every DOE (AEC) facility and collected these data, now managed by the Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), in remarkable detail. In the early 2000s, the Office of Health, Safety and Security authorized access to specific DOE worker datasets. Shortly thereafter, the DOE Office of Science provided funds for a pilot study that confirmed the feasibility of the Million Worker Study (MWS), and then additional resources were provided (with other agencies) to extend the follow-up of many populations, not just DOE workers, but also atomic veterans, industrial radiographers, nuclear power plant workers and medical radiation workers (the Million Persons Study (MPS)). This proposal was a continuation of support provided by DOE, specifically to extend the follow-up of the worker populations at the Mallinckrodt Chemical Works (MCW) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The work addresses DOE’s interest in clarifying the health risks of their workers as well as contributing knowledge on radiation risks that is relevant today with regard to compensation schemes. The findings are also important for the US public in light of the increased population exposure to medical imaging, environmental circumstances such as hydraulic fracturing, increased exposures during high altitude flights, and with regard to nuclear accidents such as Fukushima and possible terrorist events. Furthermore, it is important to consider reducing the uncertainty in current risk estimates by developing risk coefficients based on healthy American workers who are more representative of U.S. workers and the general public than 1945 Japanese survivors of the atomic bombs living in a war-torn country which experienced deprivation, malnourishment, and increased rates of infections and other diseases. But more importantly, it is important to learn whether radiation exposures received gradually over time (e.g., years) are more or less effective in causing health effects, cancer in particular, than if the radiation dose is received all at once in a fraction of a second as experienced by the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Finally, the ability to evaluate and combine large populations with intakes of radionuclides such as uranium, radium, plutonium, americium and polonium will provide new quantitative knowledge on human health effects that hitherto has not been possible. This cost-efficient study has built on the investments made and foundations laid by investigators and government agencies, including DOE, over the past 30-40 years, which have established early worker cohorts that can now provide answers to questions on the lifetime human health risks associated with low-level radiation exposures. Collaborating institutions included: International Epidemiology Institute, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Landauer, Inc., and Vanderbilt University. Follow-up of these two populations and the integration of them with the many other cohorts (now a total of 31) in the MPS continues under a separate DOE grant (DE-AU0000046).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Challenges and Perspectives in Lignin‐Derived Polyurethane Foam Synthesis

Abstract Polyurethane foams (PUFs) represent a significant segment of the polyurethane (PU) and cellular plastics industries, owing to their versatile applications and desirable properties. However, the production of PUFs heavily relies on petroleum‐derived chemicals, including polyols and isocyanates, raising critical environmental concerns. Lignin, an abundant aromatic macromolecule, offers a promising alternative for replacing petroleum‐based polyols because of its intrinsic hydroxyl groups. While efforts have been made to produce and apply various lignin‐based polyurethane foams (LPUFs), their commercialization remains limited by challenges such as low product consistency, poor technical performances, and high production costs. This study critically evaluates recent advances in the development of LPUFs, including innovative synthesis methods, functional applications, and emerging research trends. Moreover, potential strategies are discussed, such as lignin fractionation, modification, and co‐solvent assistance, for addressing the challenges. By resolving them, LPUFs could play a pivotal role in transitioning the PU industry to help achieve a circular bioeconomy.

Zhang, Mairui [Carl and Melinda Helwig Department ↗

Paper or Plastic? Multiscale Material Handling Properties of Two Model Municipal Solid Waste Streams

Purpose: Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) is a potentially valuable sustainable feedstock for fuel and chemical production due to its carbon-rich content and low cost. This study aims to assess the material handling properties of paperand plastic-rich MSW feedstocks to mitigate equipment failure and processing downtime. Methods: The material handling properties of crumbled MSW feedstocks were measured using apowder rheometer with mass flow hopper calculations to assess handling performance. Inverse gas chromatography was use to measure the surface energy differences between feedstocks. Electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy was used to evaluate microscale features that may contribute to material handling differences. Results: Plastic and paper rich feedstocks crumbled to a nominal 2 mm particle size were observed to have similar flow and handling characteristics with reasonable hopper outlets. 2 mm plastic rich crumbles, with their higher bulk density, exhibited superior flow performance. By contrast, 4 mm material required significantly larger hopper outlets, indicating poor flowability. Paper rich and 4 mm plastic rich samples displayed broad particle size distributions, which contributed to particle interlocking, jamming, and other flow issues. Electron microscopy revealed that plastic rich samples were significantly smoother, enhancing their flowability compared to the rougher, paper rich materials. Conclusions: This study establishes critical material handling baselines for processing MSW as a viable feedstock for fuel and chemical production. The findings highlight the importance of optimizing particle size and feedstock composition to improve flowability and handling performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Demonstrating the viability of Lagrangian in situ reduction on supercomputers

Performing exploratory analysis and visualization of large-scale time-varying computational science applications is challenging due to inaccuracies that arise from under-resolved data. In recent years, Lagrangian representations of the vector field computed using in situ processing are being increasingly researched and have emerged as a potential solution to enable exploration. However, prior works have offered limited estimates of the encumbrance on the simulation code as they consider “theoretical” in situ environments. Further, the effectiveness of this approach varies based on the nature of the vector field, benefitting from an in-depth investigation for each application area. With this study, an extended version of Sane et al. (2021), we contribute an evaluation of Lagrangian analysis viability and efficacy for simulation codes executing at scale on a supercomputer. We investigated previously unexplored cosmology and seismology applications as well as conducted a performance benchmarking study by using a hydrodynamics mini-application targeting exascale computing. Here, to inform encumbrance, we integrated in situ infrastructure with simulation codes, and evaluated Lagrangian in situ reduction in representative homogeneous and heterogeneous HPC environments. To inform post hoc accuracy, we conducted a statistical analysis across a range of spatiotemporal configurations as well as a qualitative evaluation. Additionally, our study contributes cost estimates for distributed-memory post hoc reconstruction. In all, we demonstrate viability for each application — data reduction to less than 1% of the total data via Lagrangian representations, while maintaining accurate reconstruction and requiring under 10% of total execution time in over 90% of our experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accounting for Sustainability and Performance: Contrasting Effects of PET-Derived Modifiers on Asphalt Durability

The valorization of waste plastics in roadway infrastructure requires careful balance between sustainability and performance, as ineffective modifiers may incur both environmental and financial costs. This study shows that two modifiers derived from the same waste plastic source (PET)-DOTP (N1,N4-(dioctyl)terephthalamide) and HETP (N1,N4-Bis(2-hydroxyethyl)terephthalamide)-exhibit opposite effects on asphalt properties, despite having nearly the same carbon footprint. DOTP improves elastic recovery in multiple creep recovery tests (MCRT), while HETP increases strain accumulation and reduces elasticity. Density functional theory (DFT) shows that DOTP's molecular structure can disperse well in bitumen mixtures by binding to both polar and non-polar components. In contrast, HETP binds only to the binder's polar sites, lacking adequate dispersion. This increases the risk of aggregation of polar compounds in the bitumen mixture, resulting in a more deformation-prone binder. A techno-economic analysis highlights trade-offs between sustainability and performance in industrial-scale synthesis. This study advocates for applying first-principles thinking in material design, coupled with experimental validation, to engineer plastic waste-derived additives that achieve both performance and sustainability goals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pathways of clean energy heating electrification programs for reducing carbon emissions in Northwest China

We report clean energy heating electrification programs provide a promising way to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and consumption. This work studies the cost competitiveness of clean energy heating technologies under three dynamic mechanisms: investment costs, subsidy policies, and operating costs with real data. It provides key insights into the cost competitiveness of the different heating technologies deployed in different areas, as well as their sensitivity to the three dynamic mechanisms. The results show that currently, the distinct heating programs are more cost-efficient in the urban area with existing heating networks. The average payback period of all district clean energy heating programs in the urban area is 14.9 years, while that of the individual clean heating programs is 24.7 years. The individual heating programs are becoming increasingly cost-competitive with the incentive mechanisms, especially the electricity pricing mechanisms. Moreover, individual heating technologies present remarkable advantages on flexibility and sustainability in the long run. According to the technology diffusion model proposed in this paper, the individual clean heating programs will occupy more than 50% of the market share in 2050 under the comprehensive effect of CAPEX, government subsidies, and OPEX. The real-world results and analysis render references to shape the pathway of clean energy heating electrification in Northwest China and other regions with a similar situation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗