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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Legacy Survey of Space and Time Data Preview 2: object_scarlet_models dataset type

We present Rubin Data Preview 2 (DP2), the second data preview from the NDF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Data Preview 2 (DP2) comprises coadds, detection catalogs, and ancillary data products; and when fully released will also include single-epoch images and difference images. DP2 is derived from observations acquired by the LSST Science Camera (LSSTCam) on the Simonyi Survey Telescope at the Summit Facility on Cerro Pachón, Chile, primarily during the on-sky commissioning campaign between 2025-04-16 and 2025-09-21, supplemented by observations taken between 2025-10-25 and 2026-01-06 that overlap the commissioning footprint. The DP2 footprint comprises the Science Validation wide-area survey, five Deep Drilling Fields, and a number of targeted small-field regions, including Trifid and Lagoon, Prawn, M49, and New Horizons, all observed as part of the Rubin First Look campaign. Each field was imaged in up to six broad photometric bands, ugrizy, and coadded to produce deep imaging covering an estimated 3,000 deg2. The addition of single-visit-only areas expands the total DP2 footprint to an estimated 15,000 deg2, with coverage in at least one filter. The median per-visit PSF FWHM across the wide-area survey ranges from 1.17 arcsec in the z band to 1.26 arcsec in g and r bands. The deepest field, reaches estimated coadded 5σ depths of u=26 mag, g=26.8 mag, r=26.3 mag, i=26.1 mag, z=25.3 mag, y=23.9 mag. Based on a roughly five-month primary observing baseline and covering only part of the eventual LSST footprint, DP2's area, depth, and multiband coverage nonetheless support a broad range of early science investigations ahead of LSST Data Release This dataset is a subset of the full data release consisting of the object_scarlet_models dataset type. These are scarlet deblender models for detected sources in the deep coadds. This release contains 195,366 datasets of this type.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Efficient Dimensionality Reduction and Surrogate Modeling of High-Dimensional Stress Fields

Tensor datatypes representing field variables like stress, displacement, velocity, etc., have increasingly become a common occurrence in data-driven modeling and analysis of simulations. Numerous methods [such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs)] exist to address the meta-modeling of field data from simulations. As the complexity of the simulation increases, so does the cost of acquisition, leading to limited data scenarios. Modeling of tensor datatypes under limited data scenarios remains a hindrance for engineering applications. Here, in this article, we introduce a direct image-to-image modeling framework of convolutional autoencoders enhanced by information bottleneck loss function to tackle the tensor data types with limited data. The information bottleneck method penalizes the nuisance information in the latent space while maximizing relevant information making it robust for limited data scenarios. The entire neural network framework is further combined with robust hyperparameter optimization. We perform numerical studies to compare the predictive performance of the proposed method with a dimensionality reduction-based surrogate modeling framework on a representative linear elastic ellipsoidal void problem with uniaxial loading. The data structure focuses on the low-data regime (fewer than 100 data points) and includes the parameterized geometry of the ellipsoidal void as the input and the predicted stress field as the output. The results of the numerical studies show that the information bottleneck approach yields improved overall accuracy and more precise prediction of the extremes of the stress field. Additionally, an in-depth analysis is carried out to elucidate the information compression behavior of the proposed framework.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elastic Bayesian Model Calibration

Functional data are ubiquitous in scientific modeling. For instance, quantities of interest are modeled as functions of time, space, energy, density, etc. Uncertainty quantification methods for computer models with functional response have resulted in tools for emulation, sensitivity analysis, and calibration that are widely used. However, many of these tools do not perform well when the computer model’s parameters control both the amplitude variation of the functional output and its alignment (or phase variation). This paper introduces a framework for Bayesian model calibration when the model responses are misaligned functional data. The approach generates two types of data out of the misaligned functional responses: (1) aligned functions so that the amplitude variation is isolated and (2) warping functions that isolate the phase variation. These two types of data are created for the computer simulation data (both of which may be emulated) and the experimental data. The calibration approach uses both types so that it seeks to match both the amplitude and phase of the experimental data. The framework is careful to respect constraints that arise, especially when modeling phase variation, and is framed in a way that it can be done with readily available calibration software. In conclusion, we demonstrate the techniques on two simulated data examples and on two dynamic material science problems: a strength model calibration using flyer plate experiments and an equation of state model calibration using experiments performed on the Sandia National Laboratories’ Z-machine.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

a priori uncertainty quantification of reacting turbulence closure models using Bayesian neural networks

While many physics-based closure model forms have been posited for the sub-filter scale (SFS) in large eddy simulation (LES), vast amounts of data available from direct numerical simulations (DNS) create opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques. Albeit flexible, data-driven models still depend on the dataset and the functional form of the model chosen. Increased adoption of such models requires reliable uncertainty estimates both in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. Here, in this work, we employ Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in a reacting flow model. In particular, we model the filtered progress variable scalar dissipation rate which plays a key role in the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames. We demonstrate that BNN models can provide unique insights about the structure of uncertainty of the data-driven closure models. We also propose a method for the incorporation of out-of-distribution information in a BNN, which can be used for out-of-distribution query detection. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by a priori evaluation on a dataset consisting of a variety of flame conditions and fuels.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks

The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

PyOED: An Extensible Suite for Data Assimilation and Model-Constrained Optimal Design of Experiments

This article describes PyOED, a highly extensible scientific package that enables developing and testing model-constrained optimal experimental design (OED) for inverse problems. Specifically, PyOED aims to be a comprehensive Python toolkit for model-constrained OED. The package targets scientists and researchers interested in understanding the details of OED formulations and approaches. It is also meant to enable researchers to experiment with standard and innovative OED technologies with a wide range of test problems (e.g., simulation models). OED, inverse problems (e.g., Bayesian inversion), and data assimilation (DA) are closely related research fields, and their formulations overlap significantly. Thus, PyOED is continuously being expanded with a plethora of Bayesian inversion, DA, and OED methods as well as new scientific simulation models, observation error models, and observation operators. These pieces are added such that they can be permuted to enable testing OED methods in various settings of varying complexities. The PyOED core is completely written in Python and utilizes the inherent object-oriented capabilities; however, the current version of PyOED is meant to be extensible rather than scalable. Specifically, PyOED is developed to “enable rapid development and benchmarking of OED methods with minimal coding effort and to maximize code reutilization.” This article provides a brief description of the PyOED layout and philosophy and provides a set of exemplary test cases and tutorials to demonstrate the potential of the package.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed machine learning for building performance simulation-A review of a nascent field

Building performance simulation (BPS) is critical for understanding building dynamics and behavior, analyzing the performance of the built environment, optimizing energy efficiency, improving demand flexibility, and enhancing building resilience. However, conducting BPS is not trivial. Traditional BPS relies on accurate building energy models, which are primarily physics-based and heavily dependent on detailed building information, expert knowledge, and case-by-case model calibrations, significantly limiting their scalability. With the development of sensing technology and the increased availability of data, there is growing attention and interest in data-driven BPS. However, purely data-driven models often suffer from limited generalization ability and a lack of physical consistency, resulting in poor performance in real-world applications. To address these limitations, recent studies have begun integrating physics priors into data-driven models, a methodology known as physics-informed machine learning (PIML). PIML is an emerging field where its definitions, methodologies, evaluation criteria, application scenarios, and future directions remain open. To bridge those gaps, this study systematically reviews the state-of-the-art PIML for BPS, offering a comprehensive definition of PIML and comparing it to traditional BPS approaches regarding data requirements, modeling effort, performance, and computational cost. We also summarize the commonly used methodologies, validation approaches, application domains, available data sources, open-source packages, and testbeds. In addition, this study provides a general guideline for selecting appropriate PIML models based on BPS applications. Finally, this study identifies key challenges and outlines future research directions, providing a solid foundation and valuable insights to advance R&D of PIML in BPS.

Jiang, Zixin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Equipping Neural Network Surrogates with Uncertainty for Propagation in Physical Systems

Coarse-grained or filtered models typically rely on closure models to account for unresolved scales. For instance, large eddy simulation for modeling turbulent fluid flows explicitly resolves the largest scales, but requires modeling closure terms to account for the sub-filter scales. With the vast amount of data available from high-fidelity simulations, there are unique opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques to formulate expressive and flexible closure models. Despite their flexibility, data-driven models struggle in domain shift settings, i.e. when deployed in configurations not captured in the training dataset. In particular, the efficacy of neural network surrogates is difficult to assess a priori due to the deterministic, point-estimate nature of predictions. In high-consequence applications, such models require reliable uncertainty estimates in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. To quantify uncertainties in both regimes, we employ Bayesian neural networks which are able to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We will discuss challenges associated with the training and evaluation of these networks. Furthermore, we will discuss uncertainty embedding strategies to enable efficient sampling and propagation of uncertainty through high-fidelity simulations.

Bayesian neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Doppler Backscattering Data Analysis and Integrated Modeling with OMFIT

One Modeling Framework for Integrated Tasks (OMFIT) is a widely used software tool in the magnetic fusion research community. OMFIT provides magnetic fusion energy researchers with a framework for the development of special-purpose physics modules. This paper describes an OMFIT physics module pertaining to the Doppler Backscattering (DBS) fusion plasma diagnostic. DBS measures density fluctuations and flow velocity through plasma scattering of electromagnetic waves. The OMFIT DBS module was developed to analyze experimental DBS data and facilitate modeling of DBS systems installed on multiple tokamak devices. The OMFIT DBS module is designed to support several analysis workflows: detailed analysis of experimental data, experimental planning, and theory-based synthetic diagnostic modeling. The DBS module uses integrated modeling by leveraging other OMFIT physics modules to perform tasks related to DBS, e.g. ray/beam–tracing simulations, edge-localized mode–synchronized data analysis, magnetic equilibrium reconstruction, and fitting kinetic profile data. Furthermore, this paper describes several supported workflows and serves a reference for the OMFIT DBS module.

Doppler backscattering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing Future Energy Systems with Generative AI

Energy systems are experiencing various changes that impact the distribution, use, and reliability of energy. Local utilities and municipalities must respond and adapt to these changes, moving towards a future energy system with modernized infrastructure and other targeted investments and policy decisions. However, planning for and enacting these advancements requires significant effort from experts and engineers to develop strategies that ensure a reliable and secure energy future. This includes characterizing the current energy infrastructure, identifying areas for development, and engaging with local community members. Emerging generative artificial intelligence techniques can alleviate pain points and help support the development of the next generation of energy systems. Here, in this article, we highlight on-going generative AI work in the areas of atmospheric modeling, building energy management, and distribution network design, and we propose a vision for the role of generative AI that considers opportunities and identifies challenges inherent to this technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hardware In the Loop for Demand Flexibility (HIL4DF) v1.0

The software package in question is a collection of simulation models in the Modelica language, representing a variety of mechanical system designs and envelope conditions related to LBL's FLEXLAB facility. The collection of models also features multiple controls sequences that can be simulated with the FLEXLAB model to simulate different demand flexibility scenarios. Additionally, this package will feature datasets from 3 experimental tests, used for calibration, validation and comparison against the Modelica models, this includes weather data that can be used to replicate different scenarios in simulation across the same weather conditions experienced in real experiments. Given FLEXLAB high level of instrumentation and available data, the models are calibrated across multiple measurement points, and thus results from the extension of this model to other climate zones or control sequences, would provide high level of confidence.

Huang, Weiping↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dashboard for Marine Energy Site Assessment and Monitoring

The marine energy (ME) industry presently relies upon fragmented site assessment solutions that require high resource expenditure for deployment at each site and do not leverage the wealth of readily available tools and information. A wave energy resource assessment dashboard, currently in development, will substantially improve siting, permitting, operations, and maintenance of ME projects by providing an integrated solution that is a one-stop-shop for a developer’s needs. The Site Energy Assessment and MOnitoring Dashboard (SEAMOD) will be of commercial interest to anyone seeking to deploy an ME project and is easily expandable to include tidal and wind energy site assessments. The integrated dashboard is being developed using state-of-the-art database and cloud computing methods and data-assimilative modeling tools that can be coupled with low-cost, rapidly deployable wave buoys and environmental sensing hardware. The combined software and hardware dashboard will reduce wave energy site characterization and wave climate monitoring costs by more than 60 percent and provide assessments that meet international industry standards. To realize a thriving global ME industry, the physical environment at a potential deployment site must be understood, not only for resource characterization, but also for optimization of device and power conversion performance. SEAMOD directly addresses these needs with a commercially marketable product. SEAMOD is a low-cost solution that provides comprehensive ME resource assessments, baseline environmental monitoring, and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The key technical objectives for Phase I were a series of software development goals, which when implemented with monitoring solutions, produced an initial proof-of-concept low-cost wave energy resources dashboard. In Phase II, the development of the prototype SEAMOD continued. The basic framework employed was the development of a revised dashboard and monitoring tool customized for ME applications by focusing on IEC site assessment and method requirements. Development was focused on the integration of full hindcast metocean products to provide hindcast resource characterization and environmental information. The final integrated dashboard provides a low-cost solution that delivers comprehensive, scalable, industry-standard energy resource assessments and offshore characterizations required for successful ME development. The integrated dashboard offers visibility of the most recent site modeling, measurements, and historical data. The application and integration of consensus-based standards for wave energy resource assessment, as determined by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), are crucial for the impact and value of SEAMOD. SEAMOD includes monthly, seasonal, and yearly statistics, as well as the total 30-year record, offering temporal resolution of the IEC parameters to aid potential developers in determining the available wave energy resources in their area of interest.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization: A Primer for Solid Phase Processing Applications

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems produced via advanced manufacturing methods, such as solid phase processing, for use in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). As a two-year LDRD investment requiring focused research, the MCPC project applied only a subset of the wide range of available destructive and nondestructive characterization methods to provide data to the predictive modeling and data analytics tasks. The purpose of this report is to review a wide range of destructive and nondestructive characterization methods that are relevant in solid-phase processing (SPP) applications, but not necessarily applied in the MCPC Project as a guide to the planning of characterization activities in future research. Particular attention is given to measured characteristics that can correlate to other material characteristics, with a particular interest in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) that can be applied to samples obtained in the MCPC Project. Destructive examinations include tensile tests, optical and electron microscopy, micro-hardness, and residual stress tests. NDE tests include surface visual inspection, eddy current examination for cracks, 4-point potential drop, ultrasound, x-ray, and computed tomography.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

From disorganized data to emergent dynamic models: Questionnaires to partial differential equations

Starting with sets of disorganized observations of spatially varying and temporally evolving systems, obtained at different (also disorganized) sets of parameters, we demonstrate the data-driven derivation of parameter dependent, evolutionary partial differential equation (PDE) models capable of generating the data. This tensor type of data is reminiscent of shuffled (multidimensional) puzzle tiles. The independent variables for the evolution equations (their “space” and “time”) as well as their effective parameters are all emergent , i.e. determined in a data-driven way from our disorganized observations of behavior in them. We use a diffusion map based questionnaire approach to build a smooth parametrization of our emergent space/time/parameter space for the data. This approach iteratively processes the data by successively observing them on the “space,” the “time” and the “parameter” axes of a tensor. Once the data become organized, we use machine learning (here, neural networks) to approximate the operators governing the evolution equations in this emergent space. Our illustrative examples are based (i) on a simple advection–diffusion model; (ii) on a previously developed vertex-plus-signaling model of Drosophila embryonic development; and (iii) on two complex dynamic network models (one neuronal and one coupled oscillator model) for which no obvious smooth embedding geometry is known a priori. This allows us to discuss features of the process like symmetry breaking, translational invariance, and autonomousness of the emergent PDE model, as well as its interpretability.

generative models↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification of fireball features extracted from nuclear test films using computer vision

Films from the US’s historic nuclear testing era comprise the only extensive collection of imagery depicting high-yield detonations. These films offer unique insights into the characteristics of flows occurring on scales that are difficult to replicate experimentally, and they are a valuable source of data for the validation of models used to describe nuclear detonations. In recent work, we implemented modern computer vision and machine learning techniques to extract features of the fireball following nuclear detonation. With a training dataset of fireball films, we fine-tuned a You Only Look Once 11 (YOLO11) model to detect and track the fireball. Applied to a video, the outer bounding box produced in each frame by YOLO11 is used as an input prompt to Meta’s Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2), which is shown to accurately predict the boundary of the fireball over time with high resolution. These state-of-the-art computer vision foundation models exhibit impressive visual accuracy in their results but lack an output of values that robustly quantify uncertainty in scientific applications. In this paper, we develop procedures for uncertainty quantification of extracted fireball features. We outline the application of a parallel attention mechanism to calculate uncertainty ranges that complement and better pose model validation data. This higher quality fireball validation data may serve to improve prognostic models describing nuclear detonations in support of nuclear forensic and emergency response activities.

Khristy, Joel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000209963060)↗