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DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Dynamic color mapping with a multi-scale histogram: A design study with physical scientists

Many research and development activities for scientific data analysis have focused on scalability challenges and data-driven features. Conversely, data visualization that focus on models requiring human interaction rarely involve practical and largescale scientific data analysis. Therefore, a gap exists between interactive data visualization and scientific data analysis applications. In this paper, we present a design study of interactive data visualization to support scientists who visually analyze data from neutron scattering experiments. This study was conducted in multiple phases: 1) problem characterization; 2) initial design and formative evaluation; and 3) iterative design. We characterize the problems and the design requirements for the analysis of the specific physical science data. We discuss the design, development, evaluation of our visual analytics tool and as well as our iterative developments with physical scientists. We show how to bridge the gap between the two disciplines uncovering new potential to solve their challenges in this design study. We focus on a specific challenge, finding an optimal color mapping, which plays a critical role in neutron scattering science and is broadly applicable to other scientific domains. To address the challenge, we propose two interactive visualization techniques: a dynamic color scale bar (DCSB) and a multi-scale histogram (MSH).

Chae, Junghoon↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Network Analysis of Nuclear Science Literature for Research Influence Assessment

Analyzing nuclear science literature via data-driven methods is a critical step for assessing research influence and technology advancements. Indicators of scholarly activities may be buried in large volumes of nuclear research publications and collaboration networks over time. Mining for relevant scholarly influence trends in large volumes of text can be computationally challenging; however, open-source information on research collaborations over time can offer opportunities to extract meaningful insights. While network centrality analysis of scholarly research provides topology-based insights, additional emphasis on dynamics associated with the diffusion of information through these networks is important. Here this paper represents a step in that direction through the development of a novel dynamic network analysis framework and computational engine to identify key entities and capabilities over time within global scholarly nuclear science collaboration networks. Network theoretic, stochastic simulation, and optimization methods are leveraged to address variability in scholarly interactions, influence propagation, and collaboration patterns via network connections. A topic-aware influence maximization algorithm is developed to address the goal of identifying key influential authors in diverse research topics over time. Efficient parallelized implementation of the algorithm is applied to reduce computational costs. A proof-of-concept case study using open-source Scopus data with 33,517 published nuclear research papers from 2000-2019 is presented and representative analytic insights are generated. Broad implications of these insights are discussed and future research directions are also identified.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2015

Discovering multi-scale co-occurrence patterns of asthma and influenza with the Oak Ridge bio-surveillance toolkit

Here, we describe a data-driven unsupervised machine learning approach to extract geo-temporal co-occurrence patterns of asthma and the flu from large-scale electronic healthcare reimbursement claims (eHRC) datasets. Specifically, we examine the eHRC data from 2009 to 2010 pandemic H1N1 influenza season and analyze whether different geographic regions within the United States (US) showed an increase in co-occurrence patterns of the flu and asthma. Our analyses reveal that the temporal patterns extracted from the eHRC data show a distinct lag time between the peak incidence of the asthma and the flu. While the increased occurrence of asthma contributed to increased flu incidence during the pandemic, this co-occurrence is predominant for female patients. The geo-temporal patterns reveal that the co-occurrence of the flu and asthma are typically concentrated within the south-east US. Further, in agreement with previous studies, large urban areas (such as New York, Miami, and Los Angeles) exhibit co-occurrence patterns that suggest a peak incidence of asthma and flu significantly early in the spring and winter seasons. Together, our data-analytic approach, integrated within the Oak Ridge Bio-surveillance Toolkit platform, demonstrates how eHRC data can provide novel insights into co-occurring disease patterns.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advances in Computational Approaches for Estimating Passive Permeability in Drug Discovery

Passive permeation of cellular membranes is a key feature of many therapeutics. The relevance of passive permeability spans all biological systems as they all employ biomembranes for compartmentalization. A variety of computational techniques are currently utilized and under active development to facilitate the characterization of passive permeability. These methods include lipophilicity relations, molecular dynamics simulations, and machine learning, which vary in accuracy, complexity, and computational cost. This review briefly introduces the underlying theories, such as the prominent inhomogeneous solubility diffusion model, and covers a number of recent applications. Various machine-learning applications, which have demonstrated good potential for high-volume, data-driven permeability predictions, are also discussed. Due to the confluence of novel computational methods and next-generation exascale computers, we anticipate an exciting future for computationally driven permeability predictions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

An out-of-distribution-aware autoencoder model for reduced chemical kinetics

While detailed chemical kinetic models have been successful in representing rates of chemical reactions in continuum scale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, applying the models in simulations for engineering device conditions is computationally prohibitive. To reduce the cost, data-driven methods, e.g., autoencoders, have been used to construct reduced chemical kinetic models for CFD simulations. Despite their success, data-driven methods rely heavily on training data sets and can be unreliable when used in out-of-distribution (OOD) regions (i.e., when extrapolating outside of the training set). In this paper, we present an enhanced autoencoder model for combustion chemical kinetics with uncertainty quantification to enable the detection of model usage in OOD regions, and thereby creating an OOD-aware autoencoder model that contributes to more robust CFD simulations of reacting flows.Here, we first demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in OOD detection in two well-known datasets, MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, in comparison with the deep ensemble method, and then present the OOD-aware autoencoder for reduced chemistry model in syngas combustion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2013

Optimal SCR Control Using Data-Driven Models

We present an optimal control solution for the urea injection for a heavy-duty diesel (HDD) selective catalytic reduction (SCR). The approach taken here is useful beyond SCR and could be applied to any system where a control strategy is desired and input-output data is available. For example, the strategy could also be used for the diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) system. In this paper, we identify and validate a one-step ahead Kalman state-space estimator for downstream NOx using the bench reactor data of an SCR core sample. The test data was acquired using a 2010 Cummins 6.7L ISB production engine with a 2010 Cummins production aftertreatment system. We used a surrogate HDD federal test procedure (FTP), developed at Michigan Technological University (MTU), which simulates the representative transients of the standard FTP cycle, but has less engine speed/load points. The identified state-space model is then used to develop a tunable cost function that simultaneously minimizes NOx emissions and urea usage. The cost function is quadratic and univariate, thus the minimum can be computed analytically. We show the performance of the closed-loop controller in using a reduced-order discrete SCR simulator developed at MTU. Our experiments with the surrogate HDD-FTP data show that the strategy developed in this paper can be used to identify performance bounds for urea dose controllers.

diesel, emmissions, control, environment, modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extraction and Analysis of Time Series Data from Building Automation Systems Using Large Language Models

Semantic schemas like Haystack 4, Brick and ASHRAE standard 223 enable the structured, standardized, and machine-readable representation of building data, facilitating interoperability, data integration, and advanced analytics. However, extracting information from these models requires specialized expertise in SPARQL and other programming languages, skills that are not commonly found among building professionals. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, enable the construction of queries using natural language, making it easier for individuals to interact with these systems in a manner that resembles everyday speech. However, these methods have not yet been tested on building semantic ontologies. This paper introduces a novel workflow and tool for enabling users to ask questions about a specific building's data, using natural language and receive answers automatically generated by GPT-4o. Our approach integrates semantic ontologies with advanced LLM capabilities to automate three critical steps: (1) generating SPARQL queries to retrieve time series references from ontological models, (2) extracting the corresponding time series data from the Building Automation System, and (3) performing computations and visualizations tailored to the user's query. The proposed method simplifies access to BAS data, allowing both domain experts and non-specialists to conduct sophisticated analyses without needing extensive technical knowledge of semantic web technologies. By demonstrating this pipeline, we facilitate more accessible and scalable data-driven decision-making in building operations and management.

Mulayim, Ozan Baris↗

DOE OSTI2014

A Qualitative Readiness-Requirements Assessment Model for Enterprise Big-Data Infrastructure Investment

In the last three decades, there has been an exponential growth in the area of information technology providing the information processing needs of data-driven businesses in government, science, and private industry in the form of capturing, staging, integrating, conveying, analyzing, and transferring data that will help knowledge workers and decision makers make sound business decisions. Data integration across enterprise warehouses is one of the most challenging steps in the big data analytics strategy. Several levels of data integration have been identified across enterprise warehouses: data accessibility, common data platform, and consolidated data model. Each level of integration has its own set of complexities that requires a certain amount of time, budget, and resources to implement. Such levels of integration are designed to address the technical challenges inherent in consolidating the disparate data sources. In this paper, we present a methodology based on industry best practices to measure the readiness of an organization and its data sets against the different levels of data integration. We introduce a new Integration Level Model (ILM) tool, which is used for quantifying an organization and data system s readiness to share data at a certain level of data integration. It is based largely on the established and accepted framework provided in the Data Management Association (DAMA-DMBOK). It comprises several key data management functions and supporting activities, together with several environmental elements that describe and apply to each function. The proposed model scores the maturity of a system s data governance processes and provides a pragmatic methodology for evaluating integration risks. The higher the computed scores, the better managed the source data system and the greater the likelihood that the data system can be brought in at a higher level of integration.

Big data↗

DOE OSTI2016

Data-driven battery product development: Turn battery performance into a competitive advantage.

Poor battery performance is a primary source of user dissatisfaction across a broad range of applications, and is a key bottleneck hindering the growth of mobile technology, wearables, electric vehicles, and grid energy storage. Engineering battery systems is difficult, requiring extensive testing for vendor selection, BMS programming, and application-specific lifetime testing. This work also generates huge quantities of data. This presentation will explain how to leverage this data to help ship quality products faster using fewer resources while ensuring safety and reliability in the field, ultimately turning battery performance into a competitive advantage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Big data analytics in the building industry

Catalyzed by recent market, technology, and policy trends, energy data collection in the building industry is becoming more widespread. This wealth of information allows more data-driven decision-making by designers, commissioning agents, facilities staff, and energy service providers during the course of building design, operation and retrofit. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Performance Database (BPD) has taken advantage of this wealth of building asset- and energy-related data by collecting, cleansing, and standardizing data from across the U.S. on over 870,00 buildings, and is designed to support building benchmarking, energy efficiency project design, and buildings-related policy development with real-world data. Here, this article explores the promises and perils energy professionals are faced with when leveraging such tools, presenting example analyses for commercial and residential buildings, highlighting potential issues, and discussing solutions and best practices that will enable designers, operators and commissioning agents to make the most of ‘big data’ resources such as the BPD.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Unleashing the Power of Wide-Area Data Analytics for Enhanced Grid Visibility

We report that the operation of modern electric transmission systems relies increasingly on the use of advanced sensing and synchronized-measurement technologies. These technologies collect and collate a wide variety of data from disperse locations to monitor the health of network, obtain fast and accurate diagnosis of systemic changes, and detect signs of anomalies and instabilities at an early stage. In view of the far-reaching blackout risk from potential damages to critical transmission grid assets (due to severe disturbances, physical attacks, and extreme weather events), stealthy activities that compromise the operation of wide-area sensing, communication, and control systems could cripple the entire cyber-physical smart-grid infrastructure. To this end, achieving robust event identification, ensuring bulk system observability, and developing actionable intelligence (by fostering data-driven decision making under imminent threat of complex, multifaceted attacks and disruptions) remain key challenges for sustaining a resilient power grid operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

NREL Transforms Energy for Innovative Smart and Connected Communities

Smart and connected communities use technology to better manage their urban energy systems and improve the quality and performance of government services by leveraging big data for data-driven decisions. NREL helps these communities reach their clean energy goals through cutting-edge expertise in planning, data, analytical tools, and technical support.

partnering with cities↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning

The Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) project has developed a generic and extensible component-based system modeling framework to study complex geothermal fields using a data-driven approach. Through building a digital twin of a geothermal steam field with the GOOML modeling framework, operators can analyze historical and forecasted power production, explore possible steam field configurations, and optimize real world operations, all in a cost-effective digital environment. The GOOML modeling software is based on a historical data-assimilation framework that uses first-principal thermodynamics to model steam field components using historical data, and a forecast framework that uses machine-learning-driven models of steam field components to predict future operations. This modeling framework creates countless new opportunities for digital exploration of steam field design and operations. To date, digital twins have been developed for several steam fields in New Zealand and the United States. These digital twins have been validated by comparing hindcast predictions against historical production data. Field design and operations have been explored using genetic optimization and reinforcement learning. Initial results show compelling and often surprising opportunities for improved design and operation of fields with 2 to 5 percent improvements in annual energy production. GOOML is driving a step-change in geothermal operations by applying state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and a first-of-its-kind intelligent geothermal systems model.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Occupancy-Driven Stochastic Decision Framework for Ranking Commercial Building Loads

For effective integration of building operations into the evolving demand response programs of the power grid, real-time decisions concerning the use of building appliances for grid services must excel on multiple criteria, ranging from the added value to occupants' comfort to the quality of the grid services. In this paper, we present a data-driven stochastic decision-support framework to dynamically rank load control alternatives in a commercial building, addressing the needs of multiple decision criteria (e.g. occupant comfort, grid service quality) under uncertainties in occupancy patterns. We adopt a stochastic multi-criteria decision algorithm recently applied to prioritize residential on/off loads, and extend it to i) consider complex load control decisions (e.g. dimming of lights, changing zone temperature set-points) in a commercial building; and ii) systematically integrate zonal occupancy patterns to better identify short-term (and time-varying) opportunities for grid service participation. We evaluate the performance of the proposed framework for curtailment of air-conditioning, lighting, and plug-loads in a multi-zone commercial office building for a range of design choices. With the help of a prototype system that integrates an interactive \textit{Data Analytics and Visualization} frontend we demonstrate a way for the building operators to monitor and change in real-time the available flexibility in energy consumption and to develop trust in the decision recommendations by interpreting the rationale behind the ranking.

Jain, Milan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Designing alloys with process-mapping AI pre-trained on empirical knowledge

<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Accelerated materials design should match the recent trends in the product development cycles. Materials data analytics can be used to significantly shorten development time of specialized alloys needed for next generation energy applications. However, it faces a challenge of scarce data available for training ML models. Incorporation of the domain knowledge into deep-learning graph structure via fuzzy pre-training and causal process imitation presents a viable approach to developing accurate data-driven models and reliable alloy design tools, with limited datasets. Artificial Intelligence (AI) was used in this study to incorporate such knowledge in the domain-specific computational tool, pyroMind. The tool provides not only novel design ideas but also their interpretation via physics and engineering concepts.</span>

Romanov, Vyacheslav↗

DOE OSTI2022

GOOML - Finding Optimization Opportunities for Geothermal Operations: Preprint

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) is a transferable and extensible component-based geothermal asset modeling framework that considers complex steamfield relationships and identifies optimization prospects using a data-driven approach. We have used this framework to develop digital twins that provide steamfield operators with an operational environment to analyze and understand historical and forecasted power production, explore new steamfield configuration possibilities, and seek optimal asset management for real world applications. The GOOML modeling software is built on a generic component-based systems framework that allows for both historical and forecast analysis. A GOOML model can perform historical data-assimilation using first-principal thermodynamics to create a meaningful data model. Historical production data can then be coupled with a forecast framework to train machine-learning models of steamfield components to predict future outputs. This modeling environment enables digital exploration of steamfield design configurations and operational scenarios. GOOML digital twins have been developed for steamfields in New Zealand and the United States representing differing power generation and field conditions. These digital twins have been validated by comparing hindcast predictions against historical production data. Reinforcement learning experiments were conducted to demonstrate the ability to programmatically explore the operations space using machine learning agents. Our initial results are compelling; two to five percent increases in annual energy production were demonstrated by the GOOML models with no additional infrastructure build required. GOOML offers a new approach to geothermal operations by applying state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and interaction with digital twins. Through application of these tools, operators will realize greater availability and higher net generation which will increase the cost effectiveness of geothermal energy projects.

access↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Study of Physics-Informed Deep Learning for System Fluid Dynamics Closures

The sub-grid-scale (SGS) physics models, or so-called closure relations (CR), are essential in thermal-fluid modeling and simulation codes, ranging from large-eddy simulation to system-level thermo-fluid dynamic problems. While details vary, all thermo-fluid codes solve coupled mass-momentum-energy conservation partial differential equations (PDE). Traditionally, the analytical form of closure models has to be known, and then we calibrate the model using data from a set of applicable experiments. Characteristically, it takes long effort to gain insights and mechanistic understanding needed for developing closure models. Such a model is a compact form of data. The long time required for new model development limits the pace of model application while dealing with new geometries, new coolants or system conditions, particularly in newly designed systems. Alternative to mechanistic and semi-analytical models, it is possible to discover the pattern of closure relations by applying the modern machine learning methods to the body of relevant experimental data. Deep learning (DL) is a relatively new branch in the machine learning family, and a major breakthrough has been achieved since Hinton introduces a fast algorithm to efficiently train a feed-forward neural network (NN) with multilayer perceptrons. Generally, any NN with more than two layers is considered as deep learning, and it contains a large number of hyper-parameters to achieve pattern recognition or regression for complex datasets. Hornik shows that multilayer NN is compatible with universal approximation theorem. There is no constraint for a multilayer NN to capture the properties of any measurable information. This capability makes DL attractive for closure models in a system thermal-hydraulic code. As system geometry and/or operating conditions change, new physical experiments (increasingly sophisticated) are conducted to support evaluation and revision of closure models. Such a so-called data-driven modeling relaxes the structural form of system codes to directly assimilate data instead of hard-wiring the model to pre-calibrated correlations. The objective of this research is to enable cost-effective development of a DL-based closure that reflects the data. The previous work on applying machine learning techniques to fluid dynamics focused on statistical learning with basic NN from direct numerical simulations (DNS) dataset. In the present work, we show that DL-based closure models can cause the fluid calculation to diverge if multilayer NN is used. To address the issue, we investigate conditions by which the DL-based closure models work compatibly, stably, and effectively with PDE-constrained forward prediction problems. Optimally meeting the compatibility conditions constitutes a physics-informed deep learning (PIDL) strategy. We refer to this process as PDE-constrained machine learning or PDE-ML. To develop the technical basis for PDE-ML using DL-based fluid dynamics closure, numerical experiments are performed for manufactured problems of increasing complexity. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗