Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “design under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1972

Incomplete state feedback for systems with parameter uncertainty and random disturbances

A unified design philosophy is presented for limited state feedback control problems with parameter uncertainty for both deterministic and stochastic problems. Two approaches are considered: linear compensator for the deterministic problem with parameter uncertainty, and for the single input-single output system with parameter uncertainty, a model on order equal to that of the system less the number of zeroes. The limitations of these approaches are discussed along with suggestions for further research.

Basuthakur, S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Advanced Vibration Analysis Tools and New Strategies for Robust Design of Turbine Engine Rotors

The adverse effects of small, random structural irregularities among the blades, called mistuning, can result in blade forced-response amplitudes and stresses that are much larger than those predicted for a perfectly tuned rotor. Manufacturing tolerances, deviations in material properties, or nonuniform operational wear causes mistuning; therefore, mistuning is unavoidable. Furthermore, even a small mistuning can have a dramatic effect on the vibratory behavior of a rotor because it can lead to spatial localization of the vibration energy (see the following photographs). As a result, certain blades may experience forced response amplitudes and stresses that are substantially larger than those predicted by an analysis of the nominal (tuned) design. Unfortunately, these random uncertainties in blade properties, and the immense computational effort involved in obtaining statistically reliable design data, combine to make this aspect of rotor design cumbersome.

Min, James B.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Advanced Vibration Analysis Tools and New Strategies for Robust Design of Turbine Engine Rotors

The adverse effects of small, random structural irregularities among the blades, called mistuning, can result in blade forced-response amplitudes and stresses that are much larger than those predicted for a perfectly tuned rotor. Manufacturing tolerances, deviations in material properties, or nonuniform operational wear causes mistuning; therefore, mistuning is unavoidable. Furthermore, even a small mistuning can have a dramatic effect on the vibratory behavior of a rotor because it can lead to spatial localization of the vibration energy (see the following photographs). As a result, certain blades may experience forced response amplitudes and stresses that are substantially larger than those predicted by an analysis of the nominal (tuned) design. Unfortunately, these random uncertainties in blade properties, and the immense computational effort involved in obtaining statistically reliable design data, combine to make this aspect of rotor design cumbersome.

Min, James B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification in MELCOR Safety analysis of ARIES reactor designs

MELCOR-TMAP is a combined thermal-hydraulics and tritium tracking code developed to simulate severe accident scenarios in fission and fusion power plants. Here, we demonstrate the results of MELCOR-TMAP analyses on historical ARIES program reference designs. By coupling MELCOR-TMAP with the open source RAVEN probabilistic risk analysis framework’s Bayesian UQ capabilities, we also demonstrate key uncertainties in material properties with the highest impact on tritium inventory and plant risk.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2002

Reliability Methods for Shield Design Process

Providing protection against the hazards of space radiation is a major challenge to the exploration and development of space. The great cost of added radiation shielding is a potential limiting factor in deep space operations. In this enabling technology, we have developed methods for optimized shield design over multi-segmented missions involving multiple work and living areas in the transport and duty phase of space missions. The total shield mass over all pieces of equipment and habitats is optimized subject to career dose and dose rate constraints. An important component of this technology is the estimation of two most commonly identified uncertainties in radiation shield design, the shielding properties of materials used and the understanding of the biological response of the astronaut to the radiation leaking through the materials into the living space. The largest uncertainty, of course, is in the biological response to especially high charge and energy (HZE) ions of the galactic cosmic rays. These uncertainties are blended with the optimization design procedure to formulate reliability-based methods for shield design processes. The details of the methods will be discussed.

Tripathi, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Traditional Design Nonlinear Programming Optimization and Stochastic Methods for Structural Design

Structural design generated by traditional method, optimization method and the stochastic design concept are compared. In the traditional method, the constraints are manipulated to obtain the design and weight is back calculated. In design optimization, the weight of a structure becomes the merit function with constraints imposed on failure modes and an optimization algorithm is used to generate the solution. Stochastic design concept accounts for uncertainties in loads, material properties, and other parameters and solution is obtained by solving a design optimization problem for a specified reliability. Acceptable solutions were produced by all the three methods. The variation in the weight calculated by the methods was modest. Some variation was noticed in designs calculated by the methods. The variation may be attributed to structural indeterminacy. It is prudent to develop design by all three methods prior to its fabrication. The traditional design method can be improved when the simplified sensitivities of the behavior constraint is used. Such sensitivity can reduce design calculations and may have a potential to unify the traditional and optimization methods. Weight versus reliabilitytraced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to mean valued design. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure. Weight can be reduced to a small value for a most failure-prone design. Probabilistic modeling of load and material properties remained a challenge.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Issues and Strategies in Solving Multidisciplinary Optimization Problems

Optimization research at NASA Glenn Research Center has addressed the design of structures, aircraft and airbreathing propulsion engines. The accumulated multidisciplinary design activity is collected under a testbed entitled COMETBOARDS. Several issues were encountered during the solution of the problems. Four issues and the strategies adapted for their resolution are discussed. This is followed by a discussion on analytical methods that is limited to structural design application. An optimization process can lead to an inefficient local solution. This deficiency was encountered during design of an engine component. The limitation was overcome through an augmentation of animation into optimization. Optimum solutions obtained were infeasible for aircraft and airbreathing propulsion engine problems. Alleviation of this deficiency required a cascading of multiple algorithms. Profile optimization of a beam produced an irregular shape. Engineering intuition restored the regular shape for the beam. The solution obtained for a cylindrical shell by a subproblem strategy converged to a design that can be difficult to manufacture. Resolution of this issue remains a challenge. The issues and resolutions are illustrated through a set of problems: Design of an engine component, Synthesis of a subsonic aircraft, Operation optimization of a supersonic engine, Design of a wave-rotor-topping device, Profile optimization of a cantilever beam, and Design of a cylindrical shell. This chapter provides a cursory account of the issues. Cited references provide detailed discussion on the topics. Design of a structure can also be generated by traditional method and the stochastic design concept. Merits and limitations of the three methods (traditional method, optimization method and stochastic concept) are illustrated. In the traditional method, the constraints are manipulated to obtain the design and weight is back calculated. In design optimization, the weight of a structure becomes the merit function with constraints imposed on failure modes and an optimization algorithm is used to generate the solution. Stochastic design concept accounts for uncertainties in loads, material properties, and other parameters and solution is obtained by solving a design optimization problem for a specified reliability. Acceptable solutions can be produced by all the three methods. The variation in the weight calculated by the methods was found to be modest. Some variation was noticed in designs calculated by the methods. The variation may be attributed to structural indeterminacy. It is prudent to develop design by all three methods prior to its fabrication. The traditional design method can be improved when the simplified sensitivities of the behavior constraint is used. Such sensitivity can reduce design calculations and may have a potential to unify the traditional and optimization methods. Weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to mean valued design. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure. Weight can be reduced to a small value for a most failure-prone design. Probabilistic modeling of load and material properties remained a challenge.

Patnaik, Surya↗
NASA NTRS2001

On the Accuracy of Probabilistic Bucking Load Prediction

The buckling strength of thin-walled stiffened or unstiffened, metallic or composite shells is of major concern in aeronautical and space applications. The difficulty to predict the behavior of axially compressed thin-walled cylindrical shells continues to worry design engineers as we enter the third millennium. Thanks to extensive research programs in the late sixties and early seventies and the contributions of many eminent scientists, it is known that buckling strength calculations are affected by the uncertainties in the definition of the parameters of the problem such as definition of loads, material properties, geometric variables, edge support conditions, and the accuracy of the engineering models and analysis tools used in the design phase. The NASA design criteria monographs from the late sixties account for these design uncertainties by the use of a lump sum safety factor. This so-called 'empirical knockdown factor gamma' usually results in overly conservative design. Recently new reliability based probabilistic design procedure for buckling critical imperfect shells have been proposed. It essentially consists of a stochastic approach which introduces an improved 'scientific knockdown factor lambda(sub a)', that is not as conservative as the traditional empirical one. In order to incorporate probabilistic methods into a High Fidelity Analysis Approach one must be able to assess the accuracy of the various steps that must be executed to complete a reliability calculation. In the present paper the effect of size of the experimental input sample on the predicted value of the scientific knockdown factor lambda(sub a) calculated by the First-Order, Second-Moment Method is investigated.

Arbocz, Johann↗
NASA NTRS1997

Managing Technical and Cost Uncertainties During Product Development in a Simulation-Based Design Environment

An approach for objective and quantitative technical and cost risk analysis during product development, which is applicable from the earliest stages, is discussed. The approach is supported by a software tool called the Analytical System for Uncertainty and Risk Estimation (ASURE). Details of ASURE, the underlying concepts and its application history, are provided.

Karandikar, Harsh M.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Determination of aerothermodynamic environment uncertainties with application to space shuttle vehicles

In an effort to minimize the cost of the thermal protection system (TPS) for space shuttles, an analysis is made of environmental uncertainties. The basic categories of these uncertainties include aerodynamic heating, trajectory dispersions, atmospheric variations, and vehicle attitude variations. Also discussed are TPS design sensitivity to environmental uncertainties, and uncertainty profiles. Preliminary results indicate moderate TPS cost for a high confidence level environment may be obtained.

Scottoline, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Application of Probabilistic Methods for the Determination of an Economically Robust HSCT Configuration

This paper outlines an approach for the determination of economically viable robust design solutions using the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) as a case study. Furthermore, the paper states the advantages of a probability based aircraft design over the traditional point design approach. It also proposes a new methodology called Robust Design Simulation (RDS) which treats customer satisfaction as the ultimate design objective. RDS is based on a probabilistic approach to aerospace systems design, which views the chosen objective as a distribution function introduced by so called noise or uncertainty variables. Since the designer has no control over these variables, a variability distribution is defined for each one of them. The cumulative effect of all these distributions causes the overall variability of the objective function. For cases where the selected objective function depends heavily on these noise variables, it may be desirable to obtain a design solution that minimizes this dependence. The paper outlines a step by step approach on how to achieve such a solution for the HSCT case study and introduces an evaluation criterion which guarantees the highest customer satisfaction. This customer satisfaction is expressed by the probability of achieving objective function values less than a desired target value.

Mavris, Dimitri N.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Optimally Scaled H(sub infinity) Full Information Control Synthesis with Real Uncertainty

This paper presents an algorithm to synthesize optimal controllers for the scaled H(sub infinity). full information problem with real and complex uncertainty. The control problem is reduced to a linear matrix inequality which can be solved via a finite dimensional convex optimization. This technique is compared with the optimal scaled H(sub infinity). full information with only complex uncertainty and D - K iteration control design to synthesize controllers for a missile autopilot. Directly including real parametric uncertainty into the control design results in improved robust performance of the missile autopilot. The controller synthesized via D - K iteration achieves results similar to the optimal designs.

Balas, Gary J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Towards Risk Based Design for NASA's Missions

This paper describes the concept of Risk Based Design in the context of NASA s low volume, high cost missions. The concept of accounting for risk in the design lifecycle has been discussed and proposed under several research topics, including reliability, risk analysis, optimization, uncertainty, decision-based design, and robust design. This work aims to identify and develop methods to enable and automate a means to characterize and optimize risk, and use risk as a tradeable resource to make robust and reliable decisions, in the context of the uncertain and ambiguous stage of early conceptual design. This paper first presents a survey of the related topics explored in the design research community as they relate to risk based design. Then, a summary of the topics from the NASA-led Risk Colloquium is presented, followed by current efforts within NASA to account for risk in early design. Finally, a list of "risk elements", identified for early-phase conceptual design at NASA, is presented. The purpose is to lay the foundation and develop a roadmap for future work and collaborations for research to eliminate and mitigate these risk elements in early phase design.

Tumer, Irem Y.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)

The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗