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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Early detection and uncertainty quantification of rapid sea-level rise from Antarctica

Focal Areas: (i) classification and/or anomaly detection methods applied towards identifying critical climate system thresholds; improved emulator design for (ii) reducing computational costs relative to full-physics models and (iii) improved uncertainty quantification workflows. Rationale: The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to climate change remains the single largest uncertainty in projecting future sea-level rise (SLR), with risk-averse projections for 2100 spanning between zero and a half meter. During the past decade, DOE has made substantial investments in new ice sheet and Earth system models needed to improve both understanding and predictive capability in this area. Yet major challenges remain, including better understanding when and under what circumstances significant increases in SLR from Antarctica may be initiated and better quantifying uncertainties in model-based SLR projections. Here, we discuss the potential for transformative advances in these areas through the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML and AI, respectively).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conceptual Designs for Irradiation Creep Testing of SiC in HFIR

Understanding irradiation creep of nuclear fuel cladding is important to properly size the initial fuel-cladding gap and understand when pellet-cladding contact is expected to occur due to a combination of fuel swelling and cladding creep-down. Irradiation creep also plays a role in relaxing stresses that develop in-pile. Silicon carbide fiber–reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) composites are the leading long-term accident-tolerant fuel cladding concept for light-water reactors (LWRs). Although some limited data are available regarding irradiation creep of the individual constituents (fibers, matrix), data regarding irradiation creep of SiC/SiC composites are currently insufficient. Additional data regarding irradiation creep compliance and the rupture lifetime (combination of creep and slow crack growth) are needed to understand material limitations. This work describes the design and development of two irradiation vehicles that are being pursued for testing SiC/SiC concepts in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). The first is a passive experiment, referred to as the PRECISE experiment, that leverages the constant coolant pressure of HFIR to compress a metallic bellows and provide a well-characterized load to drive creep in a SiC/SiC dog bone specimen. The total creep strain would be quantified post-irradiation by measuring dimensional changes of the specimen length as well as local dimensional changes within the gauge region. Non-stressed specimens would also be irradiated under the same conditions to provide an indication of dimensional changes due to radiation-induced swelling in the absence of creep. A second, more complex experiment, referred to as the INSITE experiment, is being designed in parallel that would use pneumatics to pressurize a metal bellows and linear variable differential transformers (LVDTs) to measure the specimen displacement in situ during irradiation. Such an experiment would provide significantly more data regarding the evolution of the creep compliance as a function of dose and applied stress within a single experiment but would require significantly more development time and cost to execute. The primary concern with the INSITE experiment is the accuracy, reliability, and expected lifetime of the LVDTs during irradiation at elevated temperatures. Efforts are being made to adjust the experiment design and operating procedure to limit LVDT temperatures and mitigate or otherwise compensate for uncertainties due to factors such as temperature fluctuations, creep in the surrounding structural materials, and drift of the LVDTs. This work describes the experiment designs, thermal and structural analysis that were performed to ensure that the desired temperature and stress conditions can be achieved, some initial sensitivity analyses to predict the evolution of the radiation-induced specimen displacements, and potential sources of uncertainty in the measurements. Out-of-pile testing is being performed in parallel to confirm that the test trains achieve the expected stress states in the specimens and do not result in prohibitive stress concentrators (e.g., in the grip regions) that might risk pre-mature failure. The PRECISE experiments are proceeding toward fabrication and assembly with HFIR insertion planned during fiscal year 2026. The INSITE experiment is progressing toward out-of-pile demonstrations, which will provide more conclusive evidence regarding the feasibility of executing these tests in HFIR or whether alternative displacement monitoring techniques may need to be considered.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An adaptive sampling augmented Lagrangian method for stochastic optimization with deterministic constraints

The primary goal of this paper is to provide an efficient solution algorithm based on the augmented Lagrangian framework for optimization problems with a stochastic objective function and deterministic constraints. Our main contribution is combining the augmented Lagrangian framework with adaptive sampling, resulting in an efficient optimization methodology validated with practical examples. To achieve the presented efficiency, here we consider inexact solutions for the augmented Lagrangian subproblems, and through an adaptive sampling mechanism, we control the variance in the gradient estimates. Furthermore, we analyze the theoretical performance of the proposed scheme by showing equivalence to a gradient descent algorithm on a Moreau envelope function, and we prove sublinear convergence for convex objectives and linear convergence for strongly convex objectives with affine equality constraints. The worst-case sample complexity of the resulting algorithm, for an arbitrary choice of penalty parameter in the augmented Lagrangian function, is $\mathscr{O}$(ϵ -3-δ ) , where ϵ > 0 is the expected error of the solution and δ > 0 is a user-defined parameter. If the penalty parameter is chosen to be $\mathscr{O}$(ϵ -1 ), we demonstrate that the result can be improved to $\mathscr{O}$(ϵ -2 ) , which is competitive with the other methods employed in the literature. Moreover, if the objective function is strongly convex with affine equality constraints, we obtain $\mathscr{O}$(ϵ -1 log(1/ϵ)) complexity. Finally, we empirically verify the performance of our adaptive sampling augmented Lagrangian framework in machine learning optimization and engineering design problems, including topology optimization of a heat sink with environmental uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration and Demonstration of Monitoring, Modeling, and Prediction of DV-1 Amendment Performance at the Bench Scale: DV-1 Amendment Demonstration

During fiscal years 2024 and 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Field Office commissioned Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to conduct applied research aimed at reducing the cost, time, and uncertainty associated with in situ treatment of vadose zone contaminants at the Hanford Site. This report outlines the integration of three key research efforts into a meso-scale demonstration designed to advance field-scale solutions that aim to (1) optimize the delivery of chemical amendments to contaminated soils, (2) reduce uncertainty in amendment delivery performance assessment using advanced monitoring techniques, and (3) provide real-time insights into when and where amendment-induced precipitation reactions occur in the subsurface. To achieve these objectives, the tank-scale (~ 1 cubic meter) Geophysical Imaging of Flow and Transport (GIFT) system was developed. GIFT enables experimental testing of amendment delivery while incorporating automated multi-modal monitoring approaches, including pressure measurements, direct fluid sampling, and remote time-lapse geophysical imaging. The data generated from these monitoring techniques will serve as inputs for a generative artificial-intelligence-driven digital twin – a numerical simulation model designed to honor observed data while quantifying uncertainty in simulation accuracy. Using this simulator, researchers will refine an amendment injection strategy to maximize delivery efficiency within a low-permeability soil zone. Monitoring data will be interpreted through simulated outputs to enhance understanding of the injection process. The efficacy of this integrated approach will be evaluated through direct sampling at the conclusion of the experiment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

An open source fast fluid dynamics model for data center thermal management

Although computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely adopted to improve data center thermal management, the high computational demand limits its applications, such as multivariate optimal design and operation. Fast fluid dynamics (FFD), which has been applied for fast airflow simulation, shows great potential. However, few research applied FFD for optimal design and operation of data center thermal management. This research improves the FFD model for data centers and conducts a comprehensive evaluation and demonstration. First, the FFD model is improved by solving the advection and diffusion equations together using an upwind scheme instead of a semi-Lagrangian advection solver in the conventional FFD model. Second, new features for data centers are added, such as a pressure correction method to simulate plenum airflow and dynamic boundary conditions for IT racks. The new FFD model is first validated with two indoor environment cases and the results show that the new FFD model has slightly better overall prediction accuracy and faster speed compared to the conventional FFD model. It is also observed that both FFD models achieve acceptable accuracy, except for a few localized disparities with experimental data, which might be due to simplified handling of turbulence viscosity near the boundaries. Furthermore, validation with a real data center shows that the FFD model achieves a similar level of accuracy as CFD when compared to the experimental measurements with some level of uncertainties. It is then demonstrated for data center optimal design and operation, which saves 53.4–58.8% of annual energy while still meeting the thermal requirements. In conclusion, with a much faster speed and comparable accuracy compared to CFD, the FFD model parallelized on a graphics processing unit is promising for practical model-based data center early design and operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generative Design for Resilience of Interdependent Network Systems

Abstract Interconnected complex systems usually undergo disruptions due to internal uncertainties and external negative impacts such as those caused by harsh operating environments or regional natural disaster events. To maintain the operation of interconnected network systems under both internal and external challenges, design for resilience research has been conducted from both enhancing the reliability of the system through better designs and improving the failure recovery capabilities. As for enhancing the designs, challenges have arisen for designing a robust system due to the increasing scale of modern systems and the complicated underlying physical constraints. To tackle these challenges and design a resilient system efficiently, this study presents a generative design method that utilizes graph learning algorithms. The generative design framework contains a performance estimator and a candidate design generator. The generator can intelligently mine good properties from existing systems and output new designs that meet predefined performance criteria while the estimator can efficiently predict the performance of the generated design for a fast iterative learning process. Case studies results based on synthetic supply chain networks and power systems from the IEEE dataset have illustrated the applicability of the developed method for designing resilient interdependent network systems.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Critical Infrastructure Decision-Making under Long-Term Climate Hazard Uncertainty: The Need for an Integrated, Multidisciplinary Approach

U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Quality of Salt Property Measurements

Data quality is a key element to assessing technical uncertainties in property values of salt mixtures that are pivotal in molten salt reactor (MSR) design and safety assessments under both normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. Key properties for the salt mixtures being evaluated for use in MSRs have not been measured and the few values for relevant salt compositions available in the literature are inconsistent and not suitable for use in licensing. The applications of established techniques commonly used for property measurements to molten salts are still experimental in nature and vetted consensus standards are not yet available. Work is in progress to develop and standardize methods through DOE and commercially funded projects. The quality of measured property values limits the current ability to reliably design equipment and model normal MSR operation and the effects of operational upsets. Insights from experimental measurements pertinent to reducing technical uncertainty for regulatory development are summarized in this report. Quality controls are recommended for key properties based on the mathematical calculations used to derive property values and methods used to measure experimental values and salt produced for use in the measurements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Permanent Magnet Generator Topologies Using Multimaterial Shape Optimization and 3D Printing: Preprint

A vast majority of utility-scale wind turbine generators in the United States are dependent on foreign- sourced rare-earth permanent magnets that are vulnerable to supply chain uncertainties. Many small wind original equipment manufacturers are motivated to pursue continuous improvements to the generator design to lower the material and production costs and improve performance by lowering cogging torque and increasing the efficiency. Traditional design and manufacturing offer limited opportunities. In this work, we demonstrate advanced design approaches for a 15-kW baseline wind turbine generator by making use of recent progress in three-dimensional (3D) printing of polymer- bonded magnets and, electrical and structural steel. We explore three methods of magnet parametrization using Bezier curves resulting in symmetric, asymmetric and multimaterial magnet designs. We employ a multiphysics approach combining parametric computer-aided design modeling, finite- element analysis and targeted sampling to identify novel designs with more opportunities for reducing rare-earth material, improving efficiency and minimizing cogging torque. The results show that asymmetric-pole design and multimaterial-pole designs offer a greater opportunity to minimize rare-earth magnet materials by up to 35% with similar performance as the baseline generator, suggesting newer opportunities with design freedom beyond traditional limits of symmetry and as allowed by 3D printing.

Bezier curves↗
DOE OSTI2024

Practical and Optimal Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Complex Systems Incorporating Human Experimenter Preferences (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Experiments are indispensable for developing models of complex systems. Carefully designed experiments can provide substantial savings for these expensive data-acquisition opportunities. However, designs based on heuristics are often suboptimal for systems with multiphysics, nonlinear dynamics, and uncertain and noisy environments. Optimal experimental design, while leveraging predictive models, seeks to systematically quantify and maximize the value of experiments. In this project, we focused on the design of multiple experiments, where current approaches are largely suboptimal: batch-design does not adapt to new data acquired during the experiment campaign (no feedback), and greedy/myopic design ignores future dynamics and consequences (no lookahead). We developed the mathematical framework and computational methods for sequential optimal experimental design (sOED) for complex systems. We enabled tractable model-based sOED in a rigorous manner through novel algorithms based on reinforcement learning, and investigated the effects of human experimenters on the design process. Our methods are fully Bayesian, able to quantify and update uncertainty in a principled manner. The traits aimed by our approach—mathematical rigor and optimality, human effects and uncertainty quantification, computational practicality—are crucial for elevating the standards of artificial intelligence (AI) to support decision-making in scientific domains, and contribute toward trust and realistic adoption of AI in experimental design practice.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of uncertainty in antineutrino spectra normalization calculations for advanced nuclear reactor monitoring

Antineutrino detection systems have been envisioned as an important aspect of safeguarding the next generation of nuclear reactors, especially considering designs utilizing exotic fuel cycles. Deployment of antineutrino detection systems for safeguarding applications is hindered by the uncertainties associated with the calculations required for antineutrino spectra measurements and predictions. The focus of this work is to assess the impact of system components on antineutrino spectra normalization uncertainties and their significance in reactor power monitoring sensitivity. The dominant limitation in antineutrino detection calculations is typically the uncertainty associated with a cosmogenic background. This limitation becomes more pronounced when signals are weak, although the issue is mitigated in larger reactors due to their stronger source strength. Additionally, antineutrino emission uncertainties vary with the isotopic composition of the reactor fuel. Unconventional fuel cycles, featuring less common fissioning isotopes, such as Pu-240, introduce larger antineutrino yield uncertainties. The findings from this study suggest that future research on safeguard-targeted antineutrino detection should prioritize background mitigation, particularly when background simulation is necessary. Advanced nuclear reactor designs have a major influence on background understanding and successful system implementation.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

SMR safety through HTTF modeling and benchmark efforts for code validation for gas-cooled reactor applications

Accurate modeling and simulation tools for thermal-hydraulics calculations are a key element needed to design and license new advanced reactors including Small Modular Reactors (SMR) and Microreactors. Uncertainties in modeling and simulation can have significant safety and economic implications. The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University (OSU) is a scaled integral effects experiment designed to investigate transient behavior in high-temperature gas-cooled prismatic-block nuclear reactors. High-quality measurement data is available from the HTTF that is suitable for a thermal-hydraulics code validation benchmark for gas-cooled reactor simulations. Here, this paper summarizes individual HTTF modeling efforts to date for tool validation at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Oregon State University (OSU) and Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) using system thermal-hydraulics codes, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes and system-CFD code couplings. Also, the paper introduces the ongoing OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) High Temperature Gas Reactor Thermal-Hydraulics (HTGR T/H) benchmark that allows for better comparisons of results between different international modeling teams. The benchmark provides well defined computational problems that include code-to-code comparisons and comparisons to measured data. These problems provide an avenue for quantifying accuracy and identifying sources of uncertainty in thermal-hydraulics calculations, including in measured thermophysical properties, as part of validation for gas-cooled reactor simulation tools.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward More Actionable Flood‐Risk Information

Abstract The increasingly urgent need to develop knowledge and practices to manage flood risks drives innovative information design. However, experts often disagree about design practices. As a result, flood‐risk estimates can diverge, leading to different conclusions for decision‐making. Using examples of household‐scale fluvial (riverine) flood‐risk information in the United States, we assess design features and risk communication approaches that may lead to more actionable information for decision‐making. We argue that increased attention to uncertainty characterization and model diagnostics is a critical intermediate step for developing simpler approaches for designing flood‐risk information. Simpler frameworks are desirable because flood risks change over time, and simpler frameworks are less costly to update. Developing frameworks for large spatial domains require collaboration grounded in principles of open science. Finally, systematically evaluating how decision‐makers access and use information can provide new insights to guide risk communication and information design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A systems engineering vision for floating offshore wind cost optimization

The U.S. offshore wind resource potential is immense, and often in close proximity to densely-populated coastal load centers. In many U.S. coastal areas, water depths favor the deployment of floating over fixed-bottom offshore wind technology. Floating offshore wind plants have the potential to be cost-competitive with fixed-bottom installations, but because the technology has not yet been deployed at commercial scale, it is not clear when and with what configurations this potential cost parity can be achieved. This article first reviews the state of floating offshore wind technology and deployments to identify key gaps that must be addressed to bring down the overall cost of energy produced. The article then puts forth a long-term vision for a research program and design methodology that may be able to push floating wind plants toward a lower levelized cost of energy than fixed-bottom offshore wind. The method involves a fully integrated systems-engineering and techno-economic design approach to capture the complex interactions between the physics, manufacturing, installation, and operation of floating wind turbines to achieve transformational cost reductions. The approach also envisions multifidelity and uncertainty management strategies to examine the most robust and viable concepts in the design trade-space. To better focus the computational resources, engineering lessons learned from existing offshore wind systems and concept studies are used to develop a set of criteria that can be applied to prefilter candidate technology building blocks that have the greatest cost reduction potential.

17 WIND ENERGY↗