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DOE OSTI2026

Qualitative Risk Assessment of Legacy Wells within the Estimated Prairie State Generating Company Area of Review

This report details the digitization of a legacy wellbore database, including data processing assumptions, parameter estimation, and risk assessment methodology. The database, comprising 6,454 documents, was provided by ISGS. It includes valuable data from the Prairie State Generating Company (PSGC) and One Earth Energy (OEE) sites of the CarbonSAFE Phase III – Illinois Storage Corridor project. The report focuses on wells within a 15-mile radius from the Lively Grove #1 (LG#1) well at PSGC site, evaluating subsurface conditions and potential risks. A total of 4,386 wellbores within 15 miles of the LG#1 well were filtered based on depth and formation codes. LG#1 is the stratigraphic well at the PSGC site drilled in 2021. Ninety-four (94) wells penetrating the Maquoketa Shale Group (the primary confining unit) within the estimated area-of-review (AoR) for the PSGC site were evaluated using a qualitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology. The QRA developed by Arbad et al. 2022 focuses on legacy wells within the AoR and categorizes them based on well construction details. The QRA identifies wells that need immediate attention by categorizing them based on penetration depth and protection. Wells within the AoR were categorized into nine groups based on penetrations and protections. These categories range from Type 1 wells, with no documentation, to Type 9 wells, which do not penetrate the primary confining unit or storage reservoir (unit). Well accessibility within the AoR varies based on well status, including Dry & Abandoned (DA), Plugged & Abandoned (PA), Injection (INJ), Oil/Gas Producing (PROD), and Observation (Obs) wells. Accessibility levels were determined by well construction, with DA wells being the least accessible and Observation wells the most accessible, impacting gas leakage detection possibilities. Remedial action priority of wells decreases from Type 1 to Type 9 wells. Type 1 to Type 6 wells with status DA and PA require immediate attention, while Type 7 and Type 8 wells are low priority. A risk matrix used to prioritize corrective actions for legacy wells is proposed to categorize wells within an AoR based on penetrations, protections, and accessibility. The methodology involves data acquisition, well categorization into nine types, and determining CO 2 leakage pathways using well schematics and geospatial mapping. This approach is particularly useful for managing the integrity of legacy wells throughout the lifecycle of a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project. A qualitative risk assessment of 94 wells within the AoR of the PSGC site identified 54 wells with high priority for corrective action due to penetration of the primary containment seal. The assessment utilizes color-coded maps to categorize well types and prioritize corrective actions, providing a comprehensive analysis. Schematics of wells penetrating the primary confining unit were drawn, and leakage pathways were identified. Details of all wells penetrating the confining zone are provided in the appendix, including information on well types, plugging, and casing status.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of carbonaceous aerosols during TRACER-CAT

Absorbing aerosols (AA) have an important impact on the global radiation budget and cloud properties. The composition and properties of AA can vary substantially throughout the atmosphere, depending on the particle source and the influence of chemical aging. Uncertainties associated with the radiative effects of AA remain substantial. A key contributor to this uncertainty is understanding the extent to which coatings in general, and water uptake especially, alters absorption by AA particles and how this depends on particle composition. We deployed new and existing experimental tools during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) campaign in Houston, TX as part of the Carbonaceous Aerosols Thrust (CAT) to provide detailed characterization of aerosol optical, chemical, and physical properties. Our TRACER-CAT measurements complemented and expanded on the planned TRACER instrumentation, allowing for more detailed characterization of aerosol properties of relevance to cloud development (a core focus of TRACER), such as the composition of particles that can act as cloud condensation nuclei, than would otherwise be available. Our measurements have allowed for assessment of the relationship(s) between AA optical properties (with a focus on absorption) and the chemical and physical characteristics (including the mixing state of black carbon (BC) containing particles). These field observations occurred in collaboration with Los Alamos National Laboratory in summer 2022 during the TRACER intensive operating period. The instrumentation we co-deployed provided for measurement of (i) multi-wavelength dry aerosol absorption, scattering, and extinction, (ii) the size-dependent composition and abundance of sub-micron aerosol, differentiating between those particles that do and do not contain BC, (iii) BC-specific concentrations and size distributions, (iv) particle size, and (v) the first field measurements at an ARM site of the influence of RH on multi-wavelength absorption by ambient AA. We have leveraged the natural variability of the atmosphere and of aerosol sources in the Houston region to (i) specifically disentangle contributions to light absorption from BC, absorbing organic carbon (brown carbon), and coatings on BC, (ii) characterize the mixing state of BC and assess the factors that give rise to compositional differences between BC-containing and BC-free aerosol, and (iii) establish how water uptake influences absorption and how any such effect depends on particle composition and BC mixing state. Overall, our study contributed to the mission of the Atmospheric System Research program in multiple ways. Through the deployment of complementary, advanced instrumentation for characterization of a wide range of aerosol properties our work helped to maximize the scientific impact of the TRACER campaign. Our work also allowed for development of new insights into the relationship(s) between aerosol composition, hygroscopicity, and the mixing state of BC with aerosol optical properties. Through this, our work has provided knowledge that can improve understanding and model representation of aerosol processes as they affect the Earth’s radiation budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Motion Dynamics of Motile Microbes in Pore-Networks and its Implications for Reactive Transport Processes

This report outlines new methods to improve simulations of microbial transport and microbially mediated reactions in porous media. A range of experimental, modeling, and machine learning tools are introduced to make these simulations faster, more reliable, and useful for real-world applications. At the microscopic level, the study investigates how different types of bacteria move through confined spaces. A new artificial intelligence tool called DeepTrackStat, is introduced to track motions dynamics as observed in videos of particles migrating through pore networks. This tool is especially helpful for studying fast-moving microbes and requires less computing power than traditional tracking methods. At larger scales, the research looks at how microbes and chemicals interact in zones where surface water and groundwater meet. To connect the small- and large-scale findings, the study presents a neural network model called STAMNet. This tool helps scale up detailed small-scale microbial motion behaviors to predict large-scale environmental changes more efficiently. By combining lab experiments, computer models, and artificial intelligence, the research presented supports smarter environmental decision-making, especially in bioremediation of contaminated groundwater and protection of water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Examining Graphite Degradation in Molten Salt Environments: A Chemical, Physical, and Material Analysis

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) are Generation IV nuclear reactors that use liquid salt as a coolant and/or fuel. In several MSR designs, graphite serves as a moderator and/or reflector. However, due to limited experimental data and operational experience, our understanding of graphite behavior in molten salt environments remains incomplete. This report aims to identify the degradation mechanisms of nuclear graphite in MSRs, detail the mechanisms of each factor, and provide an initial assessment of their impact on the structural integrity of graphite components. This assessment is based on an extensive literature review and insights from subject matter experts. Furthermore, given the limited data, a modeling strategy using existing Grizzly software is proposed for a more thorough analysis where appropriate. Additionally, it presents mitigation strategies where applicable. The report covers physical degradation mechanisms such as infiltration, erosion, and abrasion, as well as chemical degradation mechanisms including fluorination, intercalation, corrosion, and oxidation. Molten salt can infiltrate the porous structure of graphite, leading to several detrimental effects. Entrapment of fissile products within the graphite pores can cause radiation damage and could pose challenges in the handling and disposal of contaminated components. The differential thermal expansion between the infiltrated salt and graphite, along with internal stress from pressurized molten salt and volumetric heating, can compromise the structural integrity of graphite. To mitigate these effects, employing ultra-fine graphite grades and applying sealants and coatings are effective strategies. A computational model based on coupled solid mechanics and heat transfer phenomena could be used to predict the internal stresses using Grizzly software. In pebble-bed MSRs, graphite fuel pebbles can cause abrasion against reactor components due to friction and wear. The severity of wear is influenced by various factors such as temperature, environment, and the presence of lubricants. Tribological studies reveal that higher temperatures and molten salt environments, such as FLiBe, significantly reduce wear rates compared to dry conditions. Additionally, the chemical composition of the salt can further optimize graphite's tribological performance. Long-term wear effects can be modeled by incorporating surface defects into the geometry and predict stresses under thermal and radiation effects using Grizzly software. Chemical degradation of graphite in a molten salt environment can occur through fluorination and intercalation. Fluorination can occur via replacement of hydrogen or oxygen atoms, or at the active sites, but does not cause structural degradation. Intercalation, on the other hand, can lead to exfoliation, where layers of graphite separate and peel away, damaging the graphite. Protective coatings can enhance graphite's resistance to intercalation. Graphite generally exhibits good chemical stability in molten salt environments, though it can corrode under specific conditions, particularly in the presence of impurities or oxidants. Studies have shown that protective coatings, such as plasma-sprayed partially stabilized zirconia (PSZ), can effectively prevent such degradation. Corrosion behavior varies significantly with different graphite grades and coating applications, underscoring the need for detailed studies on uncoated and coated graphite to understand and mitigate corrosion mechanisms in MSRs. Research indicates that the presence of oxidants and impurities can accelerate graphite degradation in molten salts, making it essential to explore acceptable impurity limits. Oxidation is another critical degradation mechanism, leading to weight loss and structural damage due to the formation of CO and CO 2 from the reaction of carbon atoms with oxygen. This process creates new porosity and compromises graphite's integrity. While extensive research on graphite oxidation has been conducted for gas-cooled reactors, studies specific to MSRs are limited. Findings from the coal industry suggest that molten alkali metal salts can significantly accelerate graphite oxidation, a hypothesis worth exploring for fluoride salts in MSRs. Understanding oxidation behavior in MSRs is vital for developing protective measures. The analysis of post-irradiated graphite from the MSRE experiment demonstrated exceptional chemical compatibility with molten fluoride salt, suggesting that the extent of chemical attack on graphite largely depends on the salt's infiltration capability. Therefore, the use of ultra-fine grade graphite could help mitigate chemical degradation effects. Existing oxidation modeling capabilities in Grizzly, which use reaction-diffusion equations to model graphite-air interactions, could be adapted to simulate the chemical degradation effects of graphite in molten salt environments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-ignition fire complexes drive extreme fire years and impacts

Climate change is intensifying fire behavior, with the largest and fastest-spreading fires causing the greatest impacts on people and ecosystems. Yet the mechanisms driving variability and trends in large fires remain poorly understood. Using 12-hour satellite-derived fire tracking data from 2012 to 2023, we show that the merging of separate ignitions into multi-ignition complexes is a key process amplifying fire size and destructive potential across temperate and boreal ecoregions. Multi-ignition fires account for 31% of the burned area in California and 59% in the Arctic-boreal domain, spread faster and persist longer than single-ignition fires, and disproportionately contribute to extreme fire years in California, Canada, and Siberia. They also generate stronger atmospheric feedbacks, produce more pyrocumulonimbus events, and strain firefighting capacity by dispersing suppression resources. Recognizing and accounting for fire-merging dynamics are critical for improving wildfire prediction, risk assessment, and management.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open Specy 1.0: Automated (Hyper)spectroscopy for Microplastics

Microplastic spectral analysis is one of the most time-consuming processes in studying microplastic pollution, often requiring days per sample. Researchers are transitioning to automated batch and hyperspectral image analysis techniques to enhance efficiency. Open Specy, initially aimed at manual single-spectrum analysis, has now integrated automated methods. This updated version, Open Specy 1.0, introduces several new features, including two algorithms for automated processing (smoothing and particle compression), an extensive library containing over 40,000 open-source Raman and FTIR spectra, and two machine learning classifiers (logistic regression and k medoids) developed from this library. Furthermore, it includes a revamped user interface, an R package, and a benchmark data set for testing future advancements in automated techniques. Researchers evaluated various configurations for hyperspectral smoothing, particle identification, compression, and splitting, to achieve combined recovery rates between 50 and 150% particle counts, identities, and sizes with a coefficient of variation (CV) of less than 40% (the accredited standard). Mean absorbance times the standard deviation provided a consistent particle identification. Hyperspectral smoothing led to a 96% combined recovery rate and reduced variability (CV = 38%) compared to the 86% recovery (CV = 83%) of nonsmoothed controls. Additionally, compressing spectra for particles was significantly faster (>3x) and showed similar accuracy but with reduced variability than processing each pixel individually. Key challenges persist in automating spectral analysis, particularly in refining particle splitting algorithms, and improving identification routines to minimize false positives and negatives. In conclusion, new methods in sample preparation for better stabilization and dispersion of particles could overcome some of these issues.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Soil Water Retention and Hydraulic Conductivity Data and Model at Trail Creek in Taylor River Watershed, Colorado 2024-2025

This data package includes soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity data and model fitting results from measurements of ex-situ soil samples and in-situ soil sensors near Trail Creek. Soil water retention curves (SWRC) characterize soil water content as a function of soil water potential. SWRC depends on soil texture and pore structure and can be used to describe the constraints on biogeochemical processes in terms of soil water availability. In this data package, the sample identification follows the format TR-X-Y, where TR refers to Trail Creek, X is the treatment block identifier, and Y is the location identifier. Specifically, TR-ASCC1 is the control treatment block under the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) project, and TR-ASCC2 is the clear-cut treatment block. TR-ASCC-EHSn is associated with ecohydrology sites under the East-Taylor Watershed Community Observatory Sites directory, and TR-ASCC-ERTn (upslope n=1) are ecohydrology sites along the electrical resistivity tomography transects. The sample and location information can be found in metadata.csv, and the data from the soil sensors will be included in a future data version when the observation period becomes sufficiently long for data analysis. Sampling and Measurements Each sample falls into one of the two sampling methods – (1) intact cores or (2) soil sensors – and one of the two measurement methods – (a) laboratory or (b) in-situ. The intact cores were measured using the laboratory methods, which include measurements of soil water potential (HYPROP & WP4C, METER), saturated (KSAT, METER) and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (HYPROP). The in-situ method uses a pair of co-located soil sensors to measure volumetric water content (TEROS12, METER) and soil water potential (TEROS21, METER), and the hydraulic conductivity was not measured. In comparison, the laboratory methods progress from full saturation to dry conditions, and the in-situ method includes both dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry cycles. The sampling and measurement methods for each sample can be found in metadata.csv, and more information about the measurements is detailed in the Methods section below. Models Retention and hydraulic conductivity data were fitted with four van-Genuchten-type models (specified by “model_name” column in the files): (1) traditional constrained van Genuchten model (“vG_constrained”), (2) traditional unconstrained van Genuchten model (“vG_unconstrained”), (3) PDI-variant of the constrained van Genuchten model (“vG_constrained_PDI”), and (4) PDI-variant of the unconstrained van Genuchten model (“vG_unconstrained_PDI”). The difference between the constrained (1: n) and the unconstrained (2: n, m) van Genuchten models is the number of pore-size distribution parameters in the model equations, giving the unconstrained model more degrees of freedom when fitting the data. Between the traditional and the PDI-variant models, model fitting differs the most at the dry end of the measurements. The traditional models allow infinite suction at the residual water content (water content does not drop below residual water content), and the PDI-variant models enforce a soil water potential value of pF=6.8 (~ -630 MPa) at oven-dryness (water content reaches 0). The inclusion of the van-Genuchten-type models is due to their common application. If other retention models are required, users can access the data in data.csv for further data fitting. More information about the models can be found in the Methods section below. Fitting Tasks The model fitting can be categorized into three levels of tasks (specified by “fitting_task” column in the files). Level 1 (“fit_retention”) only includes retention data fitting (the only level available for the in-situ method). Level 2 (“fit_retention_conductivity”) includes both retention and hydraulic conductivity data fitting, and the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks, a parameter of the hydraulic conductivity functions) is fixed by the measurements from KSAT. Level 3 (“fit_retention_conductivity_Ks”) also includes both retention and hydraulic conductivity data fitting, but Ks is a fitted parameter without the constraints from KSAT measurements. Among the same retention models (e.g. vG_constrained models of the same sample), level 1 should produce the best retention data fitting. Level 2 should have the highest misfit of the retention and hydraulic conductivity data, because the retention and hydraulic conductivity functions share common model parameters, and the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (HYPROP) data fitting is subject to Ks measured independently by KSAT. Level 3 should have mid-level misfits of the retention and hydraulic conductivity data. While level 3 fits the hydraulic conductivity data better than level 2, the fitted Ks value might be unreasonable due to the lack of constraints at the wet end of the measurements. General recommendation when using this data package: (1) Choice of sampling methods: Intact cores might suffer from sample gaps that would lead to overestimation of Ks (sample gaps can be inferred from the “soil_sample_volume” column in metadata.csv when the value is < 249). In-situ method has higher uncertainty in characterizing the wet end of the SWRC because of sensor limitations and the difficulty in reaching full saturation under natural conditions. (2) Choice of fitting tasks: When only retention data is needed, level 1 (“fit_retention”) should be prioritized. When both retention and hydraulic conductivity data are needed, level 2 (“fit_retention_conductivity”) could be prioritized. (3) Choice of models: This could depend on what the downstream models call for. If no specific model is required, model misfit could be used as a ranking criterion. Model misfit values in terms of RMSE can be found in model_parameters.csv. The following files are included in this data package: (1) metadata.csv – This file includes the general information of each sample, including location (description, geocoordinates, elevation), sampling and measurements details (method, depth, time or period, volume, instruments), and soil physical properties (bulk density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, only applicable to physical soil samples). (2) data.csv – This file includes soil water potential, volumetric water content, and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity data of each sample. Column “instrument” specifies the instrument (HYPROP, WP4C, or TEROS) used to perform the measurements. (3) model_fit.csv – This file includes soil water potential, volumetric water content, and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity fitted from the four models and three fitting tasks. Column “model_name” specifies the retention model used, and “fitting_task” specifies the level of data fitting. Missing values indicate that the variable does not apply to that fitting task. (4) model_parameters.csv – This file includes the fitted model parameters, model misfits, and conventional water content thresholds (field capacity and wilting point) from the four models and three fitting tasks. Column “model_name” specifies the retention model used, and “fitting_task” specifies the level of data fitting. Missing values indicate that the parameter does not apply to that model and/or that fitting task. (5) data_Ks.csv – This file includes the saturated hydraulic conductivity measurements from KSAT. (6) /figure/*.png – This folder includes three quick visualizations of the data, retention model fitting results and misfits, and hydraulic conductivity model fitting results, misfits, and parameters. The model fitting results are separated by samples and fitting tasks and colored by models. Zoom-in required. (7) /hyprop/*.bdhx – This folder includes proprietary hyprop files that require the free Labros SoilView-Analysis (METER) to open. Users can explore data fitting using other retention models (i.e. Brooks-Corey, Fredlund-Xing, Kosugi, bimodal models). Be aware that Ks value is pre-entered under “Fitting tab, Conductivity functions parameters” for level 2 fitting. If the value is lost, please refer to metadata.csv under “Ks” column. (8) Six file-level metadata that summarize file, header, column, and variable information of all files. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > SOILS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Whole metagenome sequencing and 16S rRNA gene amplicon analyses reveal the complex microbiome responsible for the success of enhanced in-situ reductive dechlorination (ERD) of a tetrachloroethene-contaminated Superfund site

The North Railroad Avenue Plume (NRAP) Superfund site in New Mexico, USA exemplifies successful chlorinated solvent bioremediation. NRAP was the result of leakage from a dry-cleaning that operated for 37 years. The presence of tetrachloroethene biodegradation byproducts, organohalide respiring genera (OHRG), and reductive dehalogenase (rdh) genes detected in groundwater samples indicated that enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD) was the remedy of choice. This was achieved through biostimulation by mixing emulsified vegetable oil into the contaminated aquifer. This report combines metagenomic techniques with site monitoring metadata to reveal new details of ERD. DNA extracts from groundwater samples collected prior to and at four, 23 and 39 months after remedy implementation were subjected to whole metagenome sequencing (WMS) and 16S rRNA gene amplicon (16S) analyses. The response of the indigenous NRAP microbiome to ERD protocols is consistent with results obtained from microcosms, dechlorinating consortia, and observations at other contaminated sites. WMS detects three times as many phyla and six times as many genera as 16S. Both techniques reveal abundance changes in Dehalococcoides and Dehalobacter that reflect organohalide form and availability. Methane was not detected before biostimulation but appeared afterwards, corresponding to an increase in methanogenic Archaea. Assembly of WMS reads produced scaffolds containing rdh genes from Dehalococcoides, Dehalobacter, Dehalogenimonas, Desulfocarbo, and Desulfobacula. Anaerobic and aerobic cometabolic organohalide degrading microbes that increase in abundance include methanogenic Archaea, methanotrophs, Dechloromonas, and Xanthobacter, some of which contain hydrolytic dehalogenase genes. Aerobic cometabolism may be supported by oxygen gradients existing in aquifer microenvironments or by microbes that produce O 2 via microbial dismutation. The NRAP model for successful ERD is consistent with the established pathway and identifies new taxa and processes that support this syntrophic process. This project explores the potential of metagenomic tools (MGT) as the next advancement in bioremediation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Considerations for Managing DOE Standard Canisters within an Over-canister as Part of an Integrated Waste Management System PPT

To better enable informed decision making regarding the back-end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the Integrated Waste Management Program within the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) has been sponsoring research into a comprehensive integrated waste management system (IWMS) that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). An important aspect of the IWMS is DOE-managed Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF). DOE and its predecessor agencies have generated, transported, received, stored, and reprocessed SNF at DOE facilities nationwide, and DOE is responsible for managing the SNF currently in its possession. These fuels come from a wide range of reactor types that employ various cladding materials, fuel materials, and enrichments. To enable interim, road-ready dry storage (RRDS) of the wide variety of SNF types found in the DOE inventory, a standardized canister system (i.e., the DOE Standard Canister) was proposed for the packaging demonstration. This robust, welded canister system is designed to confine radionuclides, prevent criticality by precluding content moderation, and satisfy other requirements as part of a larger storage, transportation, and disposal system. While SNF has yet to be loaded into a DOE Standard Canister, DOE Standard Canister designs were included in past storage facility and disposal facility design licensing endeavors. In a renewed effort to evaluate packaging SNF at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in a RRDS configuration, researchers are planning the RRDS Packaging Demonstration. This demonstration is supplemented by analytical structural, criticality, and material compatibility evaluations that support management of SNF in DOE Standard Canisters, taking advantage of past analysis work to the extent possible. One of the largest differences between the current Packaging Demonstration and past analytical evaluations is the inclusion of an over-canister containing multiple DOE Standard Canisters. For the Packaging Demonstration, DOE Standard Canisters loaded with SNF are planned to be placed in a larger diameter over-canister. The sealed over-canister could then be placed in a storage overpack for onsite storage, or in a transportation overpack for shipment to an offsite storage location or disposal site once one becomes available. This paper examines the relevant considerations and provides a preliminary evaluation of integrating the over-canister configuration into the storage, transportation, and disposal processes of the overall waste management system. For storage and transportation, the over-canister can be considered analogous to a multi-purpose canister (MPC) for commercial SNF. For disposal, the DOE Standard Canisters could be removed from the over-canister and placed in a co-disposal waste package with canisters containing vitrified high-level radioactive waste (HLW) similar to configurations examined previously, or the sealed over-canisters might be capable of direct disposal in a waste package.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗
DOE OSTI2026

Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed

The 1997 New Year’s flood was among the most devastating floods in the Truckee River watershed located in western Nevada. This event resulted from complex interactions of flood drivers, such as extreme precipitation, wet antecedent watershed conditions, warm temperatures and rapid snowmelt. We leveraged simulated forcings from the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) and a process-based hydrological model to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood for the Truckee River watershed across four climate warming levels ranging from the current temperatures to + 4° C. For each scenario, we conducted ensemble simulations with the same forcing but with 100 different seasonal watershed antecedent conditions, which were randomly sampled from long-term hydrological simulations. The results show that the 1997 New Year’s flood can be reproduced or exceeded consistently only when the antecedent watershed conditions are wet, specifically when streamflows are above the 75th percentile of the climatological value. There is negligible change in ensemble mean peakflows for Truckee River near Reno; however, there are increases of 18% and 14% under the warming levels of + 3° C and + 4° C, respectively. The increases in peakflows under future climate warming are attributed to wetter antecedent watershed conditions and enhanced snowmelt. Furthermore, the largest increases in peakflows occur at small, high-elevation headwater basins along the Sierra Nevada crest. This study highlights that changes in extreme flood events will result from the complex interplay of multiple flood drivers. It also demonstrates the potential of storyline approaches to analyze future realizations of these extreme events under different climate scenarios.

Climate change impact study↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗
DOE OSTI2025

CRISPR/Cas9 editing of p-COUMAROYL-CoA:MONOLIGNOL TRANSFERASE 1 in maize alters phenolic metabolism, lignin structure, and lignin-first biomass processing

Valorization of lignocellulosic biomass for sustainable production of high-value chemicals is challenged by the complexity of lignin, a phenolic biopolymer. Beyond the classical lignin monomers derived from p-coumaryl, coniferyl, and sinapyl alcohol, grass lignins incorporate substantial amounts of monolignol p-coumarates that are produced by p-COUMAROYL-CoA:MONOLIGNOL TRANSFERASE (PMT). Here, the CRISPR/Cas9-mediated mutation of ZmPMT1 in maize enabled the design of biomass depleted in p-coumaroylated lignin and enriched in guaiacyl lignin. Lignin-first biorefining of stem biomass from zmpmt1 mutants by reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF) generated a lignin oil depleted in carboxylates and enriched in guaiacyl-derived alcohols, which are desirable substrates for bio-based polyurethane synthesis. Furthermore, the reported lignin engineering in maize is a promising strategy for designing a dual-purpose crop, providing both food and feed, along with a renewable feedstock for the production of plant-based chemicals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forest Breeze–Cold Pool Interactions Drive Convective Organization over Heterogeneous Vegetation

Heterogeneous landscapes can influence the development of convection through the generation of thermally driven mesoscale circulations. To assess the impacts of these circulations and their interaction with sea breezes, we simulated convection in an idealized coastal environment using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). We compared simulations with striped patterns of surface vegetation to those of uniform vegetation to identify the importance of vegetation heterogeneity in impacting convective development. Under dry soil conditions representative of those during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) campaigns in June 2022, we found that these vegetation-induced circulations, referred to in the literature as “forest breezes,” are more important than the sea breeze in determining the location of convection initiation. Convection and precipitation are also found to be favored over forests and suppressed over pasture and suburban landscapes as a result of greater surface sensible heat flux over the forest. Our findings also indicate that forest breezes are important for initiating convection along the boundaries of the forest, but that cold pools may play a key role in propagating the forest breezes toward the center of the forest stripe. In our simulations, the collisions of these breezes in the center of the forest stripe lead to uplift and strong convection there; however, a different width of the forest stripe would alter when the forest breezes collide or whether they collide at all. The presence of these cold pools may therefore impact the “ideal stripe width,” the width of each vegetation stripe which maximizes domain-wide precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydraulic Conductivity Measurements, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2014

Six individual ice cores were collected from the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Barrow, Alaska, in May of 2013 as part of the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE). Each core was drilled at a different location to varying depths. After drilling, the cores were stored in coolers packed with dry ice and flown to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in Berkeley, CA. 3-dimensional images of the cores were constructed using medical X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanner at 120kV. Hydraulic conductivity samples were extracted from these cores at LBNL Richmond Field Station in Richmond, CA, in February 2014 by cutting 5 to 8 inch segments using a chop saw. Samples were packed individually and stored at -20C freezing temperatures to minimize any changes in structure or loss of ice content prior to analysis. Hydraulic conductivity was determined through falling head tests using a permeameter [ELE International, Model #: K-770B] (Appendix A). Samples were placed in a latex membrane via a membrane stretcher while frozen. Use of a membrane stretcher made the membranes easier to secure and minimized contact with the sample. A clear polycarbonate sleeve, fabricated with a stainless steel ring at the bottom to keep the sleeve from floating, was placed around the sample inside the permeameter to minimize deformation during analysis. The permeameter was filled with water and 1.0 PSI of air was applied for confining pressure during sample defrost. Outflow valves were left open to allow for incremental thawing and samples were left to thaw for approximately 12 hours. After approximately 12 hours of thaw, initial falling head tests were performed. When the flow was significantly too fast or too slow, the analysis was stopped and the burette size was adjusted accordingly (i.e. a larger diameter burette was used for flows that were faster than desired or a smaller diameter burette was used for flows that were slower than desired). Two to four measurements were collected on each sample and collection stopped when the applied head load exceeded 25% change from the original load. Analyses were performed between 2 to 3 times for each sample. The final hydraulic conductivity calculations were computed using methodology of Das et al., 1985.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bound Exciton Complexes in Near-Infrared Emitting Quantum Shells

Near-infrared (NIR) light sources based on colloidal semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs) represent a scalable, low-cost alternative to epitaxial semiconductor platforms. However, their performance remains hindered by rapid Auger recombination, a problem that is particularly pronounced in narrow-bandgap materials. Here, we report on CdS/HgS/CdS and CdS/HgCdSe/ ZnS quantum shells (QSs), a class of spherical quantum wells specifically engineered for a suppression of nonradiative Auger processes. Fabricated QSs exhibit tunable NIR emission with photoluminescence quantum yields reaching ∼60% below 1000 nm and up to 30% near 1300 nm. Optical gain and stimulated emission were observed in CdS/HgS/CdS QSs. In contrast, CdS/HgCdSe/ZnS QSs displayed a photoinduced absorption in lieu of optical gain despite demonstrating a comparatively stronger Auger suppression. Transient absorption spectroscopy revealed that this phenomenon arises from the formation of bound multiexciton complexes that induce long-lived sub-bandgap multiexciton states. The observation of such bound excitonic clusters at room temperature offers a pathway toward nonlinear NIR photonic phenomena, including biexciton−exciton cascade emission, optical modulation, and singleexciton gain.

Auger recombination↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the relationship between simulation parameters and flow variables in simulating atmospheric gravity waves for wind energy applications

Wind farms, particularly offshore clusters, are becoming larger than ever before. Besides influencing the surface wind flow and the inflow for downstream wind farms, large wind farms can trigger atmospheric gravity waves in the inversion layer and the free atmosphere aloft. Wind-farm-induced gravity waves can cause adverse pressure gradients upstream of the wind farm, which contribute to the global blockage effect, and can induce favorable pressure gradients above and downstream of the wind farm that enhance wake recovery. Numerical modeling is a powerful means of studying these wind-farm-induced atmospheric gravity waves, but it comes with the challenge of handling spurious reflections of these waves from domain boundaries. Typically, approaches which employ radiation boundary conditions and forcing zones are used to avoid these reflections. However, the simulation setup of these approaches relies heavily on ad hoc processes. For instance, the widely used Rayleigh damping method requires ad hoc tuning to produce a setup that may only produce satisfactory results for a particular case. To provide more systematic guidance on setting up realistic simulations of atmospheric gravity waves, we conduct a large-eddy simulation (LES) study of flow over a 2D hill and through a wind farm canopy that explores the optimum domain size and damping layer setup depending on the fundamental parameters which determine the flow characteristics. In this work, we only consider linearly stratified conditions (i.e., no inversion layer), thereby focusing on internal gravity waves in the free atmosphere and their reflections from the domain boundaries. This type of flow is governed by a single Froude number, which dictates most of the internal wave properties, such as wavelength, amplitude, and direction. This, in turn, will dictate the optimum domain size and Rayleigh damping layer setup. We find the effective horizontal and vertical wavelengths (the representative wavelengths of the entire wave spectrum) to be the appropriate length scales to size the domain and damping layer thickness, and the optimal Rayleigh damping coefficient scales with the Brunt–Väisälä frequency. Considering Froude numbers seen in wind farm applications, we propose recommendations to limit the reflections to less than 10 % of the total upward-propagating wave energy. Typically, damping is done at the top boundary, but given the non-periodic lateral boundary conditions of practical wind farm simulation domains, we find that damping the inflow–outflow boundaries is of equal importance to damping the top boundary. The Brunt–Väisälä frequency-normalized damping coefficient should be between 1 and 10. The damping layer thickness should be at least one effective vertical wavelength; damping layers exceeding 1.5 times the vertical wavelength are found to be unnecessary. The domain length and height should accommodate at least one effective horizontal and vertical wavelength, respectively. Moreover, Rayleigh damping does not damp the waves completely, and the non-damped energy might accumulate over the simulation time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗