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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Lithium oxidation and electrolyte decomposition at Li-metal/liquid electrolyte interfaces

In this work, we examine the evolution of events occurring when a Li metal surface is in contact with a 2 M solution of a Li salt in a solvent or mixture of solvents, via classical molecular dynamics simulations with a reactive force field allowing bond breaking and bond forming. The main events include Li oxidation and electrolyte reduction along with expansion of the Li surface layers forming a porous phase that is the basis for the formation of the solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) components. Nucleation of the main SEI components (LiF, Li oxides, and some organics) is characterized. The analysis clearly reveals the details of these physical–chemical events as a function of time, during 20 nanoseconds. The effects of the chemistry of the electrolyte on Li oxidation and dissolution in the liquid electrolyte, and SEI nucleation and structure are identified by testing two salts: LiPF 6 and LiCF 3 SO 3 , and various solvents including ethers and carbonates and mixtures of them. The kinetics and thermodynamics of Li 6 F, the core nuclei in the LiF crystal, are studied by analysis of the MD trajectories, and via density functional theory calculations respectively. The SEI formed in this computational experiment is the “native” film that would form upon contact of the Li foil with the liquid electrolyte. As such, this work is the first in a series of computational experiments that will help elucidate the intricate interphase layer formed during battery cycling using metal anodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Seasonal changes in the drivers of water physico-chemistry variability of a small freshwater tidal river

Where rivers meet the sea, tides can exert a physical and chemical influence on the lower reaches of a river. How tidal dynamics in these tidal river reaches interact with upstream hydrological drivers such as storm rainfall, which ultimately determines the quantity and composition of material transferred from watersheds to estuaries, is currently unknown. We monitored a small freshwater tidal river in the Pacific Northwest, USA in high resolution over one year to evaluate the relative importance of tides versus upstream hydrological flows (i.e., base flow and precipitation events) on basic physico-chemical parameters (pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, specific conductivity, and temperature), and how these interactions relate to the downstream estuary. Tidal variability and diurnal cycles (i.e. solar radiation) dominated water physico-chemical variability in the summer, but the influence of these drivers was overshadowed by storm-driven sharp pulses in river physico-chemistry during the remainder of the year. Within such events, we found incidences of counterclockwise hysteresis of pH, counterclockwise hysteresis of dissolved oxygen, and clockwise hysteresis of turbidity, although systematic trends were not observed across events. The dominance of storm rainfall in the river’s physico-chemistry dynamics, and similar pulses of decreased pH observed in adjacent estuarine waters, suggest that the linkage between tidal streams and the broader system is variable throughout the year. High-frequency monitoring of tidal river biogeochemistry is therefore crucial to enable the assessment of how the relative strength of these drivers may change with future sea level rise and altered precipitation patterns to modulate biogeochemical dynamics across the land-ocean-atmosphere continuum.

aquatic↗

Inclusion of a cold hardening scheme to represent frost tolerance is essential to model realistic plant hydraulics in the Arctic–boreal zone in CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro

As temperatures decrease in autumn, vegetation of temperate and boreal ecosystems increases its tolerance to freezing. This process, known as hardening, results in a set of physiological changes at the molecular level that initiate modifications of cell membrane composition and the synthesis of anti-freeze proteins. Together with the freezing of extracellular water, anti-freeze proteins reduce plant water potentials and xylem conductivity. To represent the responses of vegetation to climate change, land surface schemes increasingly employ “hydrodynamic” models that represent the explicit fluxes of water from soil and through plants. The functioning of such schemes under frozen soil conditions, however, is poorly understood. Nonetheless, hydraulic processes are of major importance in the dynamics of these systems, which can suffer from, e.g., winter “frost drought” events. In this study, we implement a scheme that represents hardening into CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro. FATES-Hydro is a plant hydrodynamics module in FATES, a cohort model of vegetation physiology, growth, and dynamics hosted in CLM5.0. We find that, in frozen systems, it is necessary to introduce reductions in plant water loss associated with hardening to prevent winter desiccation. This work makes it possible to use CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro to model realistic impacts from frost droughts on vegetation growth and photosynthesis, leading to more reliable projections of how northern ecosystems respond to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Practical Approach to Inertia Assessment: Analyzing New York's Grid Response to Real Events

The non-uniform distribution of inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as solar and wind energy leads to the formation of weakly coupled regions within the broader interconnection. This highlights the urgency of investigating regional dynamics. This paper proposes a practical framework for estimating regional inertia using actual event measurements from the New York (NY) region. The regional frequency is determined using measurement data from frequency disturbance recorders (FDRs) deployed across NY. The rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF) is estimated using a hybrid methodology that combines the benefits of both moving and non-moving window techniques. By utilizing the power mismatch value and the estimated RoCoF, various inertia metrics such as regional RoCoF, inertia arrival time, and inertia percentage relative to the interconnection inertia are calculated. The identified confirmed-events that took place between 2017–2022 in NY are used in the study. This assessment of inertia using real event data reveals the true behavior of the grid under stress. The results indicate that as the generation mix in NY evolves with the rise of IBRs, both the RoCoF levels and the regional inertia undergo significant changes.

Dulal, Saurav [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗

Causes and evolution of winter polynyas north of Greenland

During the 42-year period (1979–2020) of satellite measurements, four major winter (December–March) polynyas have been observed north of Greenland: one in December 1986 and three in the last decade, i.e., February of 2011, 2017, and 2018. The 2018 polynya was unparalleled in its magnitude and duration compared to the three previous events. Given the apparent recent increase in the occurrence of these extreme events, this study aims to examine their evolution and causality, in terms of forced versus natural variability. The limited weather station and remotely sensed sea ice data are analyzed combining with output from the fully coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), including one hindcast and two ensemble simulations. We found that neither the accompanying anomalous warm surface air intrusion nor the ocean below had an impact (i.e., no significant ice melting) on the evolution of the observed winter open-water episodes in the region. Instead, the extreme atmospheric wind forcing resulted in greater sea ice deformation and transport offshore, accounting for the majority of sea ice loss in all four polynyas. Our analysis suggests that strong southerly winds (i.e., northward wind with speeds greater than 10 m s –1 ) blowing persistently over the study region for at least 2 d or more were required over the study region to mechanically redistribute some of the thickest Arctic sea ice out of the region and thus to create open-water areas (i.e., a latent heat polynya). To assess the role of internal variability versus external forcing of such events, we carried out and examined results from the two RASM ensembles dynamically downscaled with output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) simulations. Out of 100 winters in each of the two ensembles (initialized 30 years apart: one in December 1985 and another in December 2015), 17 and 16 winter polynyas were produced north of Greenland, respectively. The frequency of polynya occurrence had no apparent sensitivity to the initial sea ice thickness in the study area pointing to internal variability of atmospheric forcing as a dominant cause of winter polynyas north of Greenland. We assert that dynamical downscaling using a high-resolution regional climate model offers a robust tool for process-level examination in space and time, synthesis with limited observations, and probabilistic forecasts of Arctic events, such as the ones being investigated here and elsewhere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Event Classifications on DNE2 Main Experiment Data using a Convolutional Neural Network Ensemble

The Dynamic Networks (DN) Experiment for FY24 (DNE2) is an experiment within DN with the goal of quantitatively evaluating the effectiveness of solutions developed so far by various researchers under the Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) program using a shared set of metrics and datasets. A key component of this experiment is the mimicking of a signature processing pipeline, and comparing currently accepted and standard-use processing methods to more state-of-the-art processes developed under DN. In this work, we focus specifically on the Event Characterization (EC) Focus Area (FA) of the pipeline, where a seismic event’s magnitude, yield and class are identified. We use Deep Learning (DL) to classify the type of events being processed as either earthquakes (EQs) or explosions (EXs) for three iterations of experiment datasets. The model is noticeably more confident and accurate in classifying explosions than earthquakes, reflecting a known shortcoming of the model, that being of a bias towards predicting explosions over earthquakes in the west coast due to training data biases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of a River Dynamical Core for E3SM to simulate compound flooding on Exascale-class heterogeneous supercomputers

Flooding events pose significant risk to human life, property, and infrastructure. Physically-consistent quantification of altered flood risks in global models requires hyper-resolution (~1 km) or fine flood simulations using two-dimensional (2D) physics schemes, both of which are unavailable in the current generation Earth System Models. Here, in this work, we have developed the River Dynamical Core (RDycore), which is an open-source, 2D shallow water equation (SWE) library for the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). RDycore uses PETSc and libCEED libraries that allows it to run efficiently on CPUs and GPUs, as well as select a time-integration algorithm at runtime without requiring any code modifications. RDycore achieves spatial error convergence rates for problems with analytical and manufactured solutions similar to those reported previously in the literature, or consistent with the implemented first-order spatial discretization scheme. RDycore's accuracy in predicting flooding for a well-studied dam break problem is comparable to existing SWE models. For a problem with 471 million grid cells, RDycore achieves a speedup of 6.6x and 7.6x on GPUs compared to CPUs when using 320 compute nodes on DOE's Perlmutter and Frontier supercomputers, respectively. The one-way coupling of the RDycore library within E3SM is demonstrated by performing multiple 5-day flooding simulations during Hurricane Harvey driven by five precipitation datasets. The E3SM--RDycore simulations at 30 m spatial resolution accurately simulate maximum water height during the hurricane when benchmarked against a previously published study and achieve a speedup of 15x (Perlmutter) and 21x (Frontier) on GPUs relative to CPUs. The work presented here is the foundational step in providing hardware and algorithmic portability framework for simulating kilometer-scale river dynamics within E3SM.

Flood Simulation↗

Emergence of Orchestrated and Dynamic Metabolism of Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Microbial metabolism is a fundamental cellular process that involves many biochemical events and is distinguished by its emergent properties. While the molecular details of individual reactions have been increasingly elucidated, it is not well understood how these reactions are quantitatively orchestrated to produce collective cellular behaviors. Here we developed a coarse-grained, systems, and dynamic mathematical framework, which integrates metabolic reactions with signal transduction and gene regulation to dissect the emergent metabolic traits of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Our framework mechanistically captures a set of characteristic cellular behaviors, including the Crabtree effect, diauxic shift, diauxic lag time, and differential growth under nutrient-altered environments. It also allows modular expansion for zooming in on specific pathways for detailed metabolic profiles. Furthermore, this study provides a systems mathematical framework for yeast metabolic behaviors, providing insights into yeast physiology and metabolic engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Propagation of Summer Extreme Precipitation Events over United States: A Complex Network Analysis

Complex Network (CN) is a graph-theory based depiction of relation shared by various elements of a complex-dynamical system such as the atmosphere. Here we applied the concept of CN to understand the directionality and topological structure of summer extreme precipitation events (SEPEs) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SEPEs are calculated based on the 95th percentile daily rainfall at 0.5ox0.5o spatial resolution for CONUS to investigate the multi-dimensional characteristics of precipitation extremes. The derived CN coefficients (e.g., betweenness centrality, clustering coefficient, orientation, and network divergence) reveal important structural and dynamical information about the topology of the SEPEs and improve understanding of the dominant meteorological patterns. The initiation and propagation of SEPEs from the source-zones to the sink-zones are identified. The SEPEs are influenced by topography, dominant wind patterns, and moisture sources in terms of their topological structure and spatial dynamics.

Mondal, Somnath↗

Revealing meso-structure dynamics in additive manufacturing of energy storage via operando coherent X-ray scattering

3D printing is an emerging technology for the fabrication of energy storage devices, offering advantages over traditional manufacturing methods. However, optimization and design of such devices requires an understanding of the meso-structure formation during the 3D printing process. This study utilizes operando coherent X-ray scattering, X-ray Photon Correlation Spectroscopy (XPCS), to study the spatiotemporally-resolved far-from-equilibrium dynamics during direct ink writing 3D printing. Here, Lithium Titanate (LTO) based ink is prepared and rheologically tested for its shear-thinning properties. Two-time intensity-intensity functions are calculated to be used in subsequent quantitative analysis, which allows for an overall characterization of the dynamics, description of an initial fast decorrelation and identification of sudden rearrangements of subdomains of the sample. The results show the dynamics to be anisotropic, spatiotemporally heterogenous and marked by distinct rearrangement events, all of which impact the electrochemical performance of energy storage devices. The studied 3D printing ink is used to fabricate electrodes which are then electrochemically tested, showing good performance in cycling and retaining structural integrity. This work furthers the understanding of the far-from-equilibrium material dynamics during 3D printing, giving quantitative characterization of this process, and highlights aspects of structure formation relevant to the electrochemical performance of the resultant energy storage device.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MSD CoP Webinar: AI and Extreme Events - Overcoming Data Challenges for Improved Characterization of Climate Extremes

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Artificial Intelligence (AI) models require large volumes of data for training and testing. Data requirements present challenges for using AI to explore extreme events with limited observational data. This webinar will showcase two innovative methods developed by part of the European Climate Intelligence (CLINT) project to overcome data challenges and harness AI to improve our understanding of climate extremes. Dr. Ascenso will present his research on data augmentation methods to improve estimates of tropical cyclones using satellite data. His presentation will review established methods for data augmentation and explore opportunities and challenges for using generative AI to generate images of extreme, life-threatening tropical cyclones. Next, Dr. Plesiat will present his research on deep learning techniques to overcome limited observational data sets. His presentation will illustrate deep learning methods to develop AI reconstructions of four climate indices across Europe. Presenters : Dr. Guido Ascenso (post-doctoral researcher, Politecnico di Milano); Dr. Étienne Plésiat (German Climate Computing Centre - DKRZ) Moderator(s): Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), David Gold (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), Jillian Sturtevant (MSD CoP WG Communications Officer), Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano, MSD CoP WG Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: October 11, 2024 from 11AM - 1PM ET

AI↗

Dynamic zinc fluxes regulate meiotic progression in Caenorhabditis elegans

Abstract Zinc influx and efflux events are essential for meiotic progression in oocytes of several mammalian and amphibian species, but it is less clear whether this evolutionary conservation of zinc signals is also important in late-stage germline development in invertebrates. Using quantitative, single cell elemental mapping methods, we find that Caenorhabditis elegans oocytes undergo significant stage-dependent fluctuations in total zinc content, rising by over sevenfold from Prophase I through the beginning of mitotic divisions in the embryo. Live imaging of the rapid cell cycle progression in C. elegans enables us to follow changes in labile zinc pools across meiosis and mitosis in single embryo. We find a dynamic increase in labile zinc prior to fertilization that then decreases from Anaphase II through pronuclear fusion and relocalizes to the eggshell. Disruption of these zinc fluxes blocks extrusion of the second polar body, leading to a range of mitotic defects. We conclude that spatial temporal zinc fluxes are necessary for meiotic progression in C. elegans and are a conserved feature of germ cell development in a broad cross section of metazoa.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Dynamic Trajectory Fit to Multisensor Fireball Observations

Meteorites with known orbital origins are key to our understanding of solar system formation and the source of life on Earth. Fireball networks have been developed globally in a unified effort to record and ultimately retrieve these cosmic samples. However, the accuracy of the determined orbit and the likelihood of meteorite recovery depend directly on the accuracy of the chosen meteoroid triangulation method. There are three leading techniques for meteoroid triangulation discussed in the literature: the method of planes, the straight-line least-squares method, and the multiparameter fit method. Here we describe an alternative method to meteoroid triangulation, called the dynamic trajectory fit. This approach uses the meteoroid’s 3D dynamic equations of motion to fit a realistic trajectory directly to multisensor line-of-sight observations. This method has the ability to resolve fragmentation events, fit systematic observatory timing offsets, and determine mass estimates of the meteoroid along its observable trajectory. Through a comprehensive Monte Carlo analysis of over 100,000 trajectory simulations, we find this new method to more accurately estimate meteoroid trajectories of slow entry events (<25 km s{sup −1}) and events observed from low convergence angles (<10°) compared to existing meteoroid triangulation techniques. Additionally, we triangulate an observed fireball event with visible fragmentation using the various triangulation methods to show that the proposed dynamic trajectory fit implementing fragmentation to best match the captured multisensor line-of-sight data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fractal Scaling of Explosively Driven Product Gases

ABSTRACT Characterization of the interface between explosive product gases and ambient air in an explosion is a complicated task due to the turbulent mixing and inherently three‐dimensional expansion of the interface. This study aims to quantify the evolution of the interface as a temporally varying Hausdorff dimension. Two test series were conducted with Composition C‐4 charges with masses of 105 and 880 g. Imaging data were collected from the time of detonation until shock wave detachment using ultra‐high‐speed cameras. Gas cloud profiles were extracted using automated image processing algorithms, and the Hausdorff dimension of these two‐dimensional slices of the gas cloud was then estimated using boxcounting algorithms. When scaled with standard gas dynamic nondimensional scalings, the Hausdorff dimension of all explosive events appears to collapse towards a single curve. The fireball was initially nonfractal and began to develop fractal properties as the shock wave separated from the detonation products. Artificial perturbation of the charged surface had no detectable impact on the evolution of the Hausdorff dimension in the early development of the fireball outside of error, despite visible phenomenological differences in the early development of mixing on the fireball surface.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantum Sensing of Electron Transfer Pathways in Natural Photosynthesis Using Time-Resolved High-Field Electron Paramagnetic Resonance/Electron–Nuclear Double Resonance Spectroscopy

Photosynthetic integral membrane reaction center (RC) proteins capture and convert sunlight into chemical energy via efficient charge separation achieved through a series of rapid, photoinitiated electron transfer steps. These fast electron transfers create an entangled spin qubit (radical) pair that contains detailed information about the weak magnetic interactions, structure, and dynamics of localized protein environments involved in charge separation events. In this work, we investigate how these entangled electron spin qubits interact with nuclear spins of the protein environment using the high spectral resolution of 130 GHz electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and electron-nuclear double resonance (ENDOR). Spectroscopic interrogation enabled the observation and probing of protons located in the electron transfer pathway between the membrane-spanning electron pair P + Q A - (where P + is the primary donor, a special pair of bacteriochlorophylls, and Q A is the primary quinone acceptor) in the bacterial RC. Spectroscopic analysis reveals hydrogen-bonding interactions involved in regulating the route that light-induced electrons travel through the RC protein during charge separation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Rate of Canopy Development Modulates the Link Between the Timing of Spring Leaf Emergence and Summer Moisture

Shifts in phenological timing have important implications for ecosystem processes, with spring leaf emergence as a dominant control of carbon, water, and energy cycling. Phenological events are predominantly determined by weather and climate, therefore dynamic in time and sensitive to climate feedbacks. Improving our understanding of how ecosystems respond to changes in phenological timing will enhance our ability to assess summer soil water availability, since the timing of spring leaf emergence may lead to soil moisture deficits later in the growing season. We leveraged data from five AmeriFlux towers in central and eastern United States to investigate the extent spring leaf emergence (i.e., start of spring, SoS ) influences rates at which forest canopies develop and how this impacts summer soil moisture ( θ JJA ) variability. Our results indicate that ecosystem processes, specifically gross primary production ( GPP ) and evapotranspiration ( ET ), exhibit compensatory responses to varying leaf emergence; with delayed spring-onset, the canopy developed more quickly, resulting in rapid GPP and ET increases, consistent across sites. Nonetheless, early SoS is a relatively good indicator for potential summer soil water deficits, particularly when it occurs together with meteorological conditions (i.e., lower-than-average precipitation, hot summer temperatures) that contribute to soil water deficits. When these meteorological conditions coincide with early SoS , θ JJA deficits are exacerbated. To the extent that these extreme conditions occur more frequently under future climate scenarios, the dynamics of spring phenology and hydroclimate may play an increasingly important role in portending the likelihood of summer water deficits, which are projected to become more severe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗