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At least 361 records · Page 20

Wet-radome attenuation in ARM cloud radars and its utilization in radar calibration using disdrometer measurements

Abstract. A relative calibration technique has been developed for the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Ka-band ARM Zenith Radars (KAZRs). This method uses the signal attenuation caused by water on the radome to estimate reflectivity factor (Ze) offsets. The wet-radome attenuation (WRA) is assumed to follow a log-linear relationship with rainfall rate during light and moderate rain, as measured by a collocated surface disdrometer. The technique has an uncertainty of approximately 3 dB, due to factors such as disdrometer measurement error, rain variability between radar and disdrometer sample volumes, and the fitting function's uncertainty for the WRA behavior. A practical advantage of this WRA-based approach to shorter-wavelength radar monitoring is that, while it requires a reference disdrometer, it proves feasible for a wider range of collocated disdrometer measurements compared to traditional direct disdrometer comparison at the onset of light rain. This technique thus offers a cost-effective monitoring tool for remote or long-term radar deployments. This calibration technique was applied during the ARM Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) from October 2021 through September 2022. The estimated Ze offsets were compared against traditional radar calibration and monitoring methods using available datasets from this campaign. Results show that the WRA-based offsets align closely with mean offsets found between cloud radars and from direct disdrometer comparison near the onset of rain, while also reflecting similar offset and campaign-long trends when compared to collocated, independently calibrated radar wind profilers. Nevertheless, overall, the KAZR Ze offsets estimated during TRACER remained stable at approximately 2 dB lower than the disdrometer estimates from the campaign start until the end of June 2022; afterward, the offsets increased to around 7 dB by the campaign's end. This increase is linked to a drop of about 1 dB in transmitter power toward the end of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gaussian Process Regression under Computational and Epistemic Misspecification

Gaussian process regression is a classical kernel method for function estimation and data interpolation. In large data applications, computational costs can be reduced using low-rank or sparse approximations of the kernel. This paper investigates the effect of such kernel approximations on the interpolation error. We introduce a unified framework to analyze Gaussian process regression under important classes of computational misspecification: Karhunen-Loève expansions that result in low-rank kernel approximations, multiscale wavelet expansions that induce sparsity in the covariance matrix, and finite element representations that induce sparsity in the precision matrix. Furthermore, our theory also accounts for epistemic misspecification in the choice of kernel parameters.

Gaussian process regression↗

BLOC Site - ASSIST Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe (Turner and Löhnert 2014; Turner and Blumberg 2019; Turner and Löhnert 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous radiances observed with an Atmospheric Sounder Spectrometer by Infrared Spectral Technology (ASSIST, Rochette et al. 2009) operated by NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory on Block Island for WFIP3. The spectral bands used in the retrieval are in the wavenumber range from 612 - 905.4 cm-1 and are specified in Turner and Löhnert (2021). Radiances are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a collocated ceilometer operated by NOAA GML and temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and pressure from a sensor attached to the ASSIST housing. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al. 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗

Improving cosmological analyses of HI clustering by reducing stochastic noise

High-number-density tracers of large-scale structure, such as the HI-rich galaxies measured by 21 cm intensity mapping, have low sampling noise, making them particularly promising as cosmological probes. At large scales, this sampling noise can be subdominant to other scale-independent contributions to the power spectrum; such contributions arise from nonlinear bias, and exceed the sampling noise if at least one of the associated bias coefficients is sufficiently large. This has important consequences for cosmological constraints obtained from such tracers, since it indicates that using the power spectrum does not lead to optimal constraints even in the linear regime. In this paper, we provide a conservative estimate of the possible improvement in constraining power of a 21 cm survey if one were to use an optimal analysis strategy (such as field-level analysis), where only the true sampling noise enters the error budget. We find that improvements in uncertainties on some cosmological parameters can be as large as 50%, depending on redshift, foreground cleaning efficiency, scales used in the analysis, and instrumental noise. One byproduct of our work is measurements of bias parameters and stochasticity for neutral hydrogen in the IllustrisTNG simulation over a wide range of redshifts; we provide simple fitting formulas for these measurements. Furthermore, our results motivate further exploration of new optimal analysis techniques and provide important insights into the constraining power of current and future 21 cm surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

FEDERATED LEARNING ON STOCHASTIC NEURAL NETWORKS

Federated learning is a machine learning paradigm that leverages edge computing on client devices to optimize models while maintaining user privacy by ensuring that local data remain on the device. However, since all data are collected by clients, federated learning is susceptible to latent noise in local datasets. Factors such as limited measurement capabilities or human errors may introduce inaccuracies in client data. To address this challenge, we propose the use of a stochastic neural network as the local model within the federated learning framework. Stochastic neural networks not only facilitate the estimation of the true underlying states of the data but also enable the quantification of latent noise. We refer to our federated learning approach, which incorporates stochastic neural networks as local models, as federated stochastic neural networks. In this work we will present numerical experiments demonstrating the performance and effectiveness of our method, particularly in handling nonindependent and identically distributed data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: cell-based coadds and METADETECTION weak lensing shape catalogue

We present the metadetection weak lensing galaxy shape catalogue from the 6-yr Dark Energy Survey (DES Y6) imaging data. This data set is the final release from DES, spanning 4422 deg 2 of the southern sky. We describe how the catalogue was constructed, including the two new major processing steps, cell-based image coaddition, and shear measurements with metadetection. The DES Y6 M etadetection weak lensing shape catalogue consists of 151 922 791 galaxies detected over riz bands, with an effective number density of n eff = 8.22 galaxies per arcmin 2 and shape noise of σ e = 0.29. We carry out a suite of validation tests on the catalogue, including testing for point spread function (PSF) leakage, testing for the impact of PSF modelling errors, and testing the correlation of the shear measurements with galaxy, PSF, and survey properties. In addition to demonstrating that our catalogue is robust for weak lensing science, we use the DES Y6 image simulation suite to estimate the overall multiplicative shear bias of our shear measurement pipeline. We find no detectable multiplicative bias at the roughly half-per cent level, with m = (3.4 ± 6.1) x 10 –3 , at 3σ uncertainty. This is the first time both cell-based coaddition and Metadetection algorithms are applied to observational data, paving the way to the Stage-IV weak lensing surveys.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Inverse bremsstrahlung absorption rate for super-Gaussian electron distribution functions including plasma screening

Here we provide analytic expressions for the effective Coulomb logarithm for inverse bremsstrahlung absorption which predict significant corrections to the Langdon effect and overall absorption rate compared to previous estimates. The calculation of the collisional absorption rate of laser energy in a plasma by the inverse bremsstrahlung mechanism usually makes the approximation of a constant Coulomb logarithm. We dispense with this approximation and instead take into account the velocity dependence of the Coulomb logarithm, leading to a more accurate expression for the absorption rate valid in both classical and quantum conditions. In contrast to previous work, the laser intensity enters into the Coulomb logarithm. In most laser-plasma interactions the electron distribution function is super-Gaussian [Langdon, Phys. Rev. Lett. 44, 575 (1980)], and we find the absorption rate under these conditions is increased by as much as ≈ 30% compared to previous estimates at low density. In many cases of interest the correction to Langdon's predicted reduction in absorption is large; for example at Z = 6 and Te = 400 eV the Langdon prediction for the absorption is in error by a factor of ≈ 2. However, we also account for the additional effect of plasma screening, which predicts a reduction in absorption by a similar amount (up to ≈ 30%). These two effects compete to determine the overall absorption, which may be increased or decreased, depending on the conditions. The corrections can be incorporated into radiation-hydrodynamics simulation codes by replacing the familiar Coulomb logarithm with an analytic expression which depends on the super-Gaussian order “M” and the screening length.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Baryon fraction from the BAO amplitude: a consistent approach to parameterizing perturbation growth

Galaxy clustering constrains the baryon fraction Omega_b/Omega_m through the amplitude of baryon acoustic oscillations and the suppression of perturbations entering the horizon before recombination. This produces a different pre-recombination distribution of baryons and dark matter. After recombination, the gravitational potential responds to both components in proportion to their mass, allowing robust measurement of the baryon fraction. This is independent of new-physics scenarios altering the recombination background (e.g. Early Dark Energy). The accuracy of such measurements does, however, depend on how baryons and CDM are modeled in the power spectrum. Previous template-based splitting relied on approximate transfer functions that neglected part of information. We present a new method that embeds an extra parameter controlling the balance between baryons and dark matter in the growth terms of the perturbation equations in the CAMB Boltzmann solver. This approach captures the baryonic suppression of CDM prior to recombination, avoids inconsistencies, and yields a clean parametrization of the baryon fraction in the linear power spectrum, separating out the simple physics of growth due to the combined matter potential. We implement this framework in an analysis pipeline using Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure with HOD-informed priors and validate it against noiseless LCDM and EDE cosmologies with DESI-like errors. The new scheme achieves comparable precision to previous splitting while reducing systematic biases, providing a more robust way to baryon-fraction measurements. In combination with BBN constraints on the baryon density and Alcock-Paczynski estimates of the matter density, these results strengthen the use of baryon fraction measurements to derive a Hubble constant from energy densities, with future DESI and Euclid data expected to deliver competitive constraints.

Crespi, Andrea [U. Waterloo (main); Waterloo U., I↗

Surrogate modelling for urban building energy simulation based on the bidirectional long short-term memory model

Here, the urban microclimate is essential for accurate simulation-based urban building energy modelling (UBEM). However, a high spatial-resolution microclimate can increase the computational resources demands of UBEM. Surrogate modelling is one of the promising approaches for fast UBEM. This study proposes a bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based approach for simulation-based UBEM surrogate modelling. The estimations are aggregated into census tracts using total building floor area. A case study using UBEM to estimate annual hourly building energy use and anthropogenic heat from all existing buildings in Los Angeles County found that most of the surrogate models can complete the annual hourly simulation within 90 minutes with a normalized mean absolute error lower than 10%, and that the bidirectional LSTM outperforms the standard LSTM in accuracy. This study demonstrates the advantages of bidirectional RNN architecture in building energy surrogate modelling and is expected to promote long-term and high-resolution UBEM with detailed microclimates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Machine Learning based Approach of Estimating Equivalent Circuit Model Parameters at Different SoCs of Li-ion Batteries from Voltage Relaxation

Abstract: In this study, an approach of estimating the equivalent circuit model (ECM) parameters for Li-ion batteries (LIBs) is proposed based on the voltage value at different intervals while relaxing the LIB after discharge. The typical approach for estimating ECM parameters of a LIB is to conduct electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements at different frequencies and fit them to a predefined circuit model, which requires additional measuring arrangements and specialized devices. The proposed methodology utilizes four different voltages at 0s, 60s, 360s, and 1800s alongside the specific state of charge (SoC) value for a specific constant discharge current value of ~1C until the relaxation stage to train and evaluate three regression-based machine learning models— Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—for estimating the ECM parameters of the selected model. Bayesian optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance for all the regressor models, among which, the GPR provided the best performance with the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of less than 4x10-4 on average for the resistive components and less than 0.27 for capacitive components with excellent R2 scores. The simplicity of the approach enables it to eliminate the need for sophisticated measuring equipment and computation power.

Sagar, Md. Samiul [The University of Alabama (UA)]↗

Few measurement shots challenge generalization in learning to classify entanglement

The ability to extract general laws from a few known examples depends on the complexity of the problem and on the amount of training data. In the quantum setting, the learner's generalization performance is further challenged by the destructive nature of quantum measurements that, together with the no-cloning theorem, limits the amount of information that can be extracted from each training sample. In this paper we focus on hybrid quantum learning techniques where classical machine-learning methods are paired with quantum algorithms and show that, in some settings, the uncertainty coming from a few measurement shots can be the dominant source of errors. We identify an instance of this possibly general issue by focusing on the classification of maximally entangled vs. separable states, showing that this toy problem becomes challenging for learners unaware of entanglement theory. Finally, we introduce an estimator based on classical shadows that performs better in the big data, few copy regime. Our results show that the naive application of classical machine-learning methods to the quantum setting is problematic, and that a better theoretical foundation of quantum learning is required.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗

Evaluation of Physical Microphysical Property Retrieval Algorithms During the 2020 IMPACTS Field Campaign

The NASA Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign provides high-quality, high-altitude aircraft lidar (532 nm), radar (W-band) and in-cloud microphysical aircraft data taken during wintertime storm events impacting the United States. This study evaluates two mass-dimensional relationships (Brown and Francis (1995, BF95); Heymsfield (2014, H14) and two lidar-radar microphysical retrieval algorithms (Cloudsat and CALIPSO Ice Cloud Property Product (2C-ICE); VarPy (a variational method derived from the satellite lidar-radar data community)) to estimate aircraft-retrieved volume extinction coefficient (σ), ice water content (IWC), and effective radius (r e ) during the 2020 IMPACTS deployment. BF95 and H14 have a close 1:1 correlation (R 2 = 0.98) with in-situ observations of σ. However, only BF95 displays a linear, consistent, and almost temperature-independent low bias for IWC and r e , which likely arises from the environmental conditions used to determine each. Unlike the field-campaign-derived BF95 and H14 relationships, VarPy and 2C-ICE directly ingest the aircraft-based lidar and radar data to simulate σ, IWC, and r e . For all three microphysical parameters, VarPy and 2C-ICE retrieval errors became notably more pronounced around the dendritic growth zone (-15°C to -10°C) and near freezing (≥-5°C), which suggests that both algorithms experience difficulty addressing riming and aggregation processes and with larger particles (dendrites and plates) due in part to their simplified ice particle assumptions. However, the mean-melt diameter ice-particle assumption did yield more accurate IWC estimates, which led to slightly better overall results for VarPy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stacked reverberation mapping of high-redshift quasars in DESI. I. Feasibility analysis

The broad-line region of quasars has long been probed by reverberation mapping techniques that measure time lags between continuum and broad emission-line variations. Stacked reverberation mapping has been proposed as a less observationally expensive alternative to traditional methods. This ensemble approach also reduces biases from small-number statistics. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is conducting the most extensive spectroscopic survey of quasars to date. We create mock light curves emulating expected DESI quasar observations at redshifts $1.48\lt z\lt 5.2$ and luminosities $44.68 \le \log \lambda L_{1350 \mathring{\rm A}{}} / \mathrm{erg\, s^{-1}} \le 45.99$ to test stacked reverberation mapping feasibility using sparse spectroscopic data paired with well-sampled photometric data. The pipeline, using the lag estimation code JAVELIN (Just Another Vehicle for Estimating Lags In Nuclei), successfully recovers the simulated C IV lags within 1σ of the true values using spectroscopic light curves composed of only a few spectral epochs (2–10) with irregular cadences. We investigate how observational factors, including C IV flux error magnitude, number of stacked quasars, and spectral epoch count, affect performance. This work motivates a pathway for future stacked reverberation mapping projects with large-scale spectroscopic surveys of quasars having $\ge 2$ spectroscopic observations. Our results suggest an economical alternative for constraining and extending the radius–luminosity relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. Subsequently, this relation can be employed more reliably in single-epoch black hole mass measurements and quasar cosmology in these distant regimes.

quasars: general, quasars: supermassive black hole↗

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗

Extended State Observer-Based Robust Model Predictive Velocity Control for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor

This article proposes an extended state observer based robust model predictive velocity control to decrease system prediction error under parameter uncertainties for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). We develop a new PMSM model that consists of velocity and acceleration to lump the system information and an external disturbance into a disturbance. The extended state observer (ESO) is designed to estimate the velocity, acceleration, and disturbance. By estimating the state variables and disturbance using the ESO, the model predictive control (MPC) finds the optimal control input by predicting future system behavior. Additionally, the direct current controller is designed so that the direct current converges to zero. Because the proposed method is not designed based on the cascade structure from the viewpoint of velocity control, the optimization control for the velocity and currents can be defined. Thus, the proposed method is robust against external disturbances and parameter uncertainties owing to feedback linearization, state feedback, and ESO-based MPC using the acceleration PMSM model. The proposed control algorithm was experimentally verified and it showed improved velocity tracking performance compared with ESO-based MPC using the conventional PMSM model.

42 ENGINEERING↗