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At least 361 records · Page 20

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Brilliant Execution of Smart Labs: Employing Best Practices to Improve Safety and Reduce Energy for Sustainable Labs: Preprint

Laboratory buildings often dominate the energy use on research campuses, consuming three to four times the energy of a typical office building. In most cases, these facilities are defined as “mission critical,” with excessive energy use as simply an unfortunate truth that cannot be avoided without compromising safety. However, case studies indicate cost savings opportunities of up to 40% in laboratories (compared to standard practices) by employing energy efficient design strategies that also improve the safety of lab spaces (Better Buildings 2018). To help stakeholders implement improvement measures, the Smart Labs Toolkit describes a proven approach to optimizing performance of laboratories and critical control environments in new or existing facilities. The Toolkit outlines distinct phases for building a successful Smart Labs program that include: Plan, Assess, Optimize, and Manage. Each phase has specific tasks, training videos, and resources to educate users, support the efforts of key stakeholders, and maximize benefits for the organization in implementing high-performance labs. The Toolkit also includes case studies from the 17 Better Buildings Smart Labs Accelerator partners, sharing lessons learned and supporting the Smart Labs approach to safe, efficient world class science. This paper reviews the technology choices for implementing Smart Labs ventilation strategies, controls, and other efficiency measures. Better Building Smart Lab Accelerator partners provide case study examples of safety and energy-savings results of using Smart Labs approaches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

From CAN to ROS: A Monitoring and Data Recording Bridge

The Controller Area Network (CAN) bus protocol is used in modern vehicles for sharing messages between several control units within a vehicle. CAN bus messages are encoded with unknown scheme and decoding these messages provide unlimited access to valuable information that is used in many autonomous vehicles applications. This paper proposes a ROS based package (CAN-to-ROS) for monitoring, recording, and real-time and offline decoding of CAN bus messages. The package is developed in the ROS framework to add modularity and ease of integration with other software, and it is written in C++ to guarantee speed of the execution during run-time. For realtime decoding of CAN bus data, CAN-to-ROS package used in conjunction with other library called Libpanda that provide access to CAN bus message from a vehicle. The package was evaluated and tested on a Raspberry Pi with real CAN bus data from a Toyota RAV4. The results confirm the capabilities of CAN-to-ROS package and resulted in using the package in other research projects.

Elmadani, Safwan↗

Utah FORGE: Optimization of a Plug-and-Perf Stimulation (Fervo Energy)

Information around the plug-and-perf treatment design at Utah FORGE by Fervo Energy. Objective and Purpose: - Develop a multistage hydraulic stimulation approach designed specifically to target the top three factors that control the technical and commercial viability of an EGS system: i) Achieving sufficient injectivity to support high cross-well flow rates ii) Distributing flow evenly across the wellbore and reservoir to maximize heat mining efficiency, ensure sustained heat transfer, and mitigate thermal breakthrough iii) Overcoming the effects of stress heterogeneity, stress shadowing, and variations in natural fracture properties during the stimulation treatment, leading to a more predictable stimulated reservoir volume and offset well placement - The following activities will be performed: i) Design, plan, and execute a multistage plug-and-perf stimulation treatment at a Fervo site with data acquisition and well testing activities aimed at addressing key technical aspects of the issues above ii) Perform data processing and interpretation of field results to translate the results form the Fervo site to a site-specific design at the Utah FORGE site iii) Design, plan, and execute a multistage plug-and-perf stimulation treatment design at the Utah FORGE site Methods and Approach: - Design a detailed data acquisition plan to maximize learning around: i) DFIT testing ii) Petrophysical logging, image logging iii) Permanent DAS/DTS fiber optic monitoring iv) Deep borehole microseismic monitoring v) Shallow borehole induced seismicity monitoring vi) Injection/production testing (RTA analysis, tracer testing) vii) Integrated numerical modeling and production forecasting

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Verification of RESRAD-OFFSITE Code (V.4)

This report documents the verification of RESRAD-OFFSITE Version 4.0 and describes, where necessary, the verification of the following: • The data comprising the standard dose and risk coefficient libraries in the RESRAD database files Master_dcf_ICRP07.mdb and Master_dcf_2k.mdb. • The extraction and transfer of the data from the selected database file to the computational code by the RESRAD-OFFSITE 4.0 interface, ResOWin.exe. • The different processes that are modeled by the main computational code in RESRAD OFFSITE 4.0, ResOMain.exe. • The data displayed in the graphical and text reports. Many verifications were performed as part of the quality assurance quality control program associated with the development and release of RESRAD-OFFSITE 4.0, namely: • developer testing, • internal independent testing, and • release testing. Some were also performed in response to questions from users regarding the performance of the code. The main text of the report focuses on summarizing a subset of those tests, both independent and developer tests that verified the computations performed by the code. The verifications included in this report served as the basis for the development of the release tests of the computational executables and provided the quantitative results to be compared with the code output. The input and output interfaces and the data transfers between the various executables of the code were tested while performing the verification testing. They were tested intentionally during release testing. This report also provides some basic information to help in understanding the activities that were verified. The report: • outlines the components of RESRAD-OFFSITE 4.0 and the interconnections between these components, • outlines the processes modeled by the computational code, • provides summary figures and tables to offer confirmation of the verification of the computational components of the code, • reproduces the verifiers’ reports, if available, in individual appendices, • refers to the previous verification report (Yu et al. 2011) for more details about some of the verifications, and • reproduces the test cases and the testers’ reports from the release testing in individual appendices, when possible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward active disruption avoidance via real-time estimation of the safe operating region and disruption proximity in tokamaks

This paper describes a real-time capable algorithm for identifying the safe operating region around a tokamak operating point. The region is defined by a convex set of linear constraints, from which the distance of a point from a disruptive boundary can be calculated. The disruptivity of points is calculated from an empirical machine learning predictor that generates the likelihood of disruption. While the likelihood generated by such empirical models can be compared to a threshold to trigger a disruption mitigation system, the safe operating region calculation enables active optimization of the operating point to maintain a safe margin from disruptive boundaries. The proposed algorithm is tested using a random forest disruption predictor fit on data from DIII-D. The safe operating region identification algorithm is applied to historical data from DIII-D showing the evolution of disruptive boundaries and the potential impact of optimization of the operating point. Real-time relevant execution times are made possible by parallelizing many of the calculation steps and implementing the algorithm on a graphics processing unit. Lastly, a real-time capable algorithm for optimizing the target operating point within the identified constraints is also proposed and simulated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Analysis of Slow Spill Data for the Mu2e Experiment

The execution of the Mu2e experiment requires a stable, low-intensity proton beam from the Delivery Ring to produce clean data and protect equipment. This is done by performing a “slow extraction,” which is the gradual contraction of the stable region within the accelerator’s beam pipe. The Delivery Ring is currently unable to perform slow extraction with the stability required by Mu2e. To resolve this, the FAN-C team is training machine learning models with the purpose of replacing the Delivery Ring’s current PID controllers with AI-powered controllers. Training these models requires clean, processed data from slow spills. Over the course of this project, data from previous slow spills were processed and analyzed, and the clean data, graphs, and insights gained from the process were provided to the FAN-C team to assist them in their efforts.

Osborn, Thomas [Purdue U., West Lafayette]↗

E-PiPEline: Quick to Market Face Coverings and Face Shields Using Commonly Available Materials

The Center for Disease Control has recommended that the public should wear cloth face coverings in public settings. Face coverings and face shields can be made by using Commonly Available Materials (CAMs). As part of the Sandia COVID-19 LDRD effort (funded under the Materials Science Investment Area), the Sandia E-PiPEline task evaluated design options for face coverings and face shields considering their effectiveness, durability, build difficulty, build cost, and comfort. Observations from this investigation are presented here to provide guidelines for home construction of face coverings and face shields. This executive summary includes a brief roadmap of the analysis methodology, two one-page handouts geared to be distributed to the public at large (one for face coverings and one for face shields), and additional observations regarding potential solutions for face coverings and face shields included to further support the one-page handouts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Xe-100 Pebble Bed Small Modular Reactor: Solving Critical Challenges to Enable the Xe-100 Pebble Bed Advanced Reactor Concept (ARC) (Final Scientific and Technical Report)

This is the final progress report for the Department of Energy (DOE) – X Energy, LLC cooperative agreement DENE0008472. This report provides a high-level summary of the work performed during the entire period of performance, running from July 1, 2016 – June 30, 2022. This span of time covers the original 5-year award and a one year no-cost extension. There were four tasks within this project: (1) project management, (2) reactor design furtherance, (3) fuel development, and (4) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) engagement. Detailed reporting during execution of the project was provided by a total of 23 quarterly reports, 42 X-energy technical reports, and voluntary monthly update presentations. Other technical work products include 2 white papers and 2 Topical Report submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 15 Potential Inventions documented, 4 patents issued, 3 patents pending, 8 peer reviewed journal articles, and 2 Oak Ridge National Laboratory Technical Manuscripts. All the X Energy milestones/deliverables were met early or on time and are archived in the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Program Information Control System: Nuclear Energy under Fiscal Year 2016, Work Breakdown Structure 2.07 – X-Energy. All other work products are available to DOE upon request.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Design and License Application Development for TRISO-X (Final Scientific Technical Report)

This is the final progress report submitted by X-energy, LLC (XE) to the Department of Energy in support of cooperative agreement DE-NE0008745. This report provides a high-level summary of the work performed during the entire period of performance, running from August 24, 2018 – August 22, 2022. This span of time covers the original 3-year award and a one year no-cost extension. There were five tasks within this project: (1) project management, (2) systems engineering and studies, (3) TRISO-X Facility design, (4) facility license application development, and (5) support to application review. Detailed reporting during execution of the project was provided by a total of 16 quarterly reports, voluntary monthly update presentations, and annual summary presentations. Technical work products include 103 X-energy technical reports, 38 subcontractor (Centrus technical reports), 75 Nuclear Criticality Safety Evaluations/Calculation reports, and 272 miscellaneous design documents (e.g., Engineering Service Orders, Engineering Component Specifications, Procedures, Guidelines/Policies, Design and Interface Requirements documents, and Drawings). All 29 of the X Energy milestones/deliverables were met early or on time and are archived in the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Program Information Control System: Nuclear Energy under Fiscal Year 2018, Work Breakdown Structure F.OA – Industry FOA FY 2018 Awards, F.03 – X-Energy TRISO-X Project. All other work products are available to DOE upon request.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A meta-evaluation of the quality of reporting and execution in ecological meta-analyses

Quantitatively summarizing results from a collection of primary studies with meta-analysis can help answer ecological questions and identify knowledge gaps. The accuracy of the answers depends on the quality of the meta-analysis. We reviewed the literature assessing the quality of ecological meta-analyses to evaluate current practices and highlight areas that need improvement. From each of the 18 review papers that evaluated the quality of meta-analyses, we calculated the percentage of meta-analyses that met criteria related to specific steps taken in the meta-analysis process (i.e., execution) and the clarity with which those steps were articulated (i.e., reporting). We also re-evaluated all the meta-analyses available from Pappalardo et al. to extract new information on ten additional criteria and to assess how the meta-analyses recognized and addressed non-independence. In general, we observed better performance for criteria related to reporting than for criteria related to execution; however, there was a wide variation among criteria and meta-analyses. Meta-analyses had low compliance with regard to correcting for phylogenetic non-independence, exploring temporal trends in effect sizes, and conducting a multifactorial analysis of moderators (i.e., explanatory variables). In addition, although most meta-analyses included multiple effect sizes per study, only 66% acknowledged some type of non-independence. The types of non-independence reported were most often related to the design of the original experiment (e.g., the use of a shared control) than to other sources (e.g., phylogeny). We suggest that providing specific training and encouraging authors to follow the PRISMA EcoEvo checklist recently developed by O’Dea et al. can improve the quality of ecological meta-analyses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Securing against malicious control of circuit breakers in electrical substations

An example method for detecting and mitigating attacks on electric power substations comprises detecting a command to open or close a circuit breaker in the electric power substation. A modified extended substation model for the electric power substation is generated, based on the detected command and based on measurements in substation, where the modified extended substation model is a power flow model for the substation and for one or more directly connected neighboring substations. A power flow analysis is performed, using the modified extended substation model, to generate a predicted voltage for each of a plurality of nodes in the substation and in the one or more directly connected neighboring substations. Each predicted voltage is compared to a corresponding allowable voltage range, and execution of the command is blocked in response to determining that one or more of the voltages is outside the corresponding allowable voltage range.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fundamental Path Optimization Strategies for Extrusion-based Additive Manufacturing

Extrusion-based additive manufacturing processes begin with a software program, called a slicer, that generates layer geometry and fits toolpaths to each layer to define where material is to be extruded or deposited. Before the toolpaths are output as g-code for the additive manufacturing system to execute, the toolpaths should be optimized. Many complex optimization approaches using graph theory, Chinese postman problem, and other complex mathematical models exist, but these approaches are rarely used in daily printing operations and are not available through common slicing programs such as Cura and PrusaSlicer. Instead, path planning and optimization typically revolves around simpler, fully automated approaches such as inside out and next closest. This paper will explore the fundamental optimization strategies for toolpath planning and document a new implementation, available via open-source slicing software, that allows for greater control of the path planning process.

Roschli, Alex [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000213084632)↗

An iterative bidirectional gradient boosting approach for CVR baseline estimation

Here this paper presents a novel Iterative Bidirectional Gradient Boosting Model (IBi-GBM) for estimating the baseline of Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) programs. In contrast to many existing methods, we treat CVR baseline estimation as a missing data retrieval problem. The approach involves dividing the load and its corresponding temperature profiles into three periods: pre-CVR, CVR, and post-CVR. To restore the missing load profile during the CVR period, the method employs a three-step process. First, a forward-pass GBM is executed using data from the pre-CVR period as inputs. Subsequently, a backward-pass GBM is applied using data from the post-CVR period. The two restored load profiles are reconciled, considering pre-calculated weights derived from forecasting accuracy, and only the leftmost and rightmost points are retained. The newly restored points are then included as inputs for the subsequent iteration. This iterative procedure continues until the original load data in the CVR period is fully restored. We develop IBi-GBM using actual smart meter and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. Our results demonstrate that IBi-GBM exhibits robust performance across various data resolutions and in different seasons and outperforms existing methods by achieving a 1-2% reduction in normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE).

42 ENGINEERING↗

APOLLO: a facility-scale differentiable virtual accelerator for Fermilab

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or yield additional insights like gradients. The FAST/IOTA facility has been working on implementing and experimentally validating an end-to-end digital twin that is both fast and gradient-aware, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. Our framework integrates physics and ML codes for linac and ring simulation through a set of generic interfaces between surrogate and physics-based sections. To reproduce device inputs and outputs, system state is exposed as a deterministic discrete event simulator. Because Fermilab is undergoing control system transition, both EPICS and ACNET frontends are supported. Recently, we have begun transitioning to a new community lattice standard, PALS, as well as developing standardized infrastructure for data ingest and normalization to prepare for model calibration during FAST proton injector commissioning. We discuss implementation details as well as challenges, and future plans to extend modelling to main complex proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

Transactive Energy Rationing in Islanded Electric Power Systems

Extreme weather events, many of which are climate change related, are occurring with increasing frequency and intensity and causing catastrophic outages. One of the major modern-day concerns of utilities is dealing with such extreme outages and consequently, its repercussions on the lives of people in society and social aspects. Traditionally, operators have been using rolling blackouts as a contingency plan to serve critical loads during such events when electricity supply is scarce. However, such blackouts practices are executed on a last-minute mandatory basis, depriving customers having low-capacity high priority loads (i.e. refrigeration, water, telecommunication, etc) that should also be serviced if at all possible. Historically, policymakers have often adopted quota-based regulatory actions or rationing for other commodities (such as gasoline, butter, sugar) to handle scarcity situations. Motivated from such quota based systems, our contribution presented in this work is an alternative transactive rationing mechanism that would provide some minimum level of service to all of the customers and serve the critical loads using market-based control during such scarcity-based contingencies. This is in contrast to the state-of-art TE mechanisms that allocate resources to customers solely based on their willingness-to-pay. The effectiveness of the proposed mechanism is demonstrated through simulation-based evaluation on two real-life use cases having feeder-level and microgrid-level configurations respectively. The simulation results clearly demonstrate the capability of the rationing scheme to serve customers’ high-priority loads through prolonged outages even during extreme scarcity scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantum-parallel vectorized data encodings and computations on trapped-ion and transmon QPUs

Compact data representations in quantum systems are crucial for the development of quantum algorithms for data analysis. In this study, we present two innovative data encoding techniques, known as QCrank and QBArt, which exhibit significant quantum parallelism via uniformly controlled rotation gates. The QCrank method encodes a series of real-valued data as rotations on data qubits, resulting in increased storage capacity. On the other hand, QBArt directly incorporates a binary representation of the data within the computational basis, requiring fewer quantum measurements and enabling well-established arithmetic operations on binary data. We showcase various applications of the proposed encoding methods for various data types. Notably, we demonstrate quantum algorithms for tasks such as DNA pattern matching, Hamming weight computation, complex value conjugation, and the retrieval of a binary image with 384 pixels, all executed on the Quantinuum trapped-ion QPU. Furthermore, we employ several cloud-accessible QPUs, including those from IBMQ and IonQ, to conduct supplementary benchmarking experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Future of Energy Efficiency for U.S. Buildings - Drivers and Market Scenarios

This paper identifies likely drivers of building efficiency over the next ten years and expectations for how efficiency markets may evolve over this period. To prepare these predictions, we conducted an extensive literature review, interviewed 22 experts, reviewed legislation and executive orders in 12 states, and implemented a detailed questionnaire completed by 41 efficiency practitioners. The two most important drivers revealed by our research are (1) public policies and regulations, particularly those associated with climate change mitigation and adaptation and (2) the cost of energy relative to the cost of delivering efficiency. Other important drivers are technology changes, economic conditions, social priorities, and industry (including utility) business practices for increasing the uptake of efficiency in buildings. Our research indicates that efficiency markets will increasingly focus on supporting building decarbonization and enabling demand flexibility through the use of controls in grid-interactive efficient buildings and communities. Efficiency improvements for specific technologies (e.g., heat pumps, controls, and windows) and technological advances not specific to energy technologies (e.g., interoperability, artificial intelligence, and universal internet access) will improve the efficacy of efficiency measures and actions. Marketing of efficient products and services will increasingly focus on grid services, decarbonization, non-energy benefits for consumers, and integration with other distributed energy resources (DERs). We anticipate increased investment in disadvantaged and historically underserved communities, recognizing the social, health, and safety benefits of efficient energy usage and remediating historical biases. Lastly, we predict that while state and local government actions will vary, jurisdictions will increase their efficiency goals overall.

Schiller, Steven R↗