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At least 361 records · Page 20

An Interpretable Index of Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards

Index-based measures of social vulnerability to environmental hazards are commonly modeled from composites of population-level risk factors. These models overlook individual context in communities' experiences of environmental hazards, producing metrics that may hinder spatial decision support for mitigating and responding to hazards. This paper introduces an interpretable, high-resolution model for generating an individual-oriented social vulnerability index (IOSVI) for the United States built on synthetic populations that couples individual and social determinants of vulnerability. The IOSVI combines an individual vulnerability index (IVI) that ranks individuals in an area’s synthetic population based on intersecting risk factors, with a social vulnerability index (SVI) based on the population’s cumulative distribution of IVI scores. Interpretability of the IOSVI procedure is demonstrated through examples of national, metropolitan, and neighborhood (census tract) level spatial variation in index scores and IVI themes, as well as an exploratory analysis examining risk factors affecting a specific sub-population (military veterans) in areas of high social and environmental vulnerability.

Tuccillo, Joe↗

ChemoGraph: Interactive Visual Exploration of the Chemical Space

Exploratory analysis of the chemical space is an important task in the field of cheminformatics. For example, in drug discovery research, chemists investigate sets of thousands of chemical compounds in order to identify novel yet structurally similar synthetic compounds to replace natural products. Manually exploring the chemical space inhabited by all possible molecules and chemical compounds is impractical, and therefore presents a challenge. To fill this gap, we present ChemoGraph, a novel visual analytics technique for interactively exploring related chemicals. In ChemoGraph, we formalize a chemical space as a hypergraph and apply novel machine learning models to compute related chemical compounds. It uses a database to find related compounds from a known space and a machine learning model to generate new ones, which helps enlarge the known space. Moreover, ChemoGraph highlights interactive features that support users in viewing, comparing, and organizing computationally identified related chemicals. With a drug discovery usage scenario and initial expert feedback from a case study, we demonstrate the usefulness of ChemoGraph.

chemical space exploration↗

Multimodality instrument for tissue characterization

A system with multimodality instrument for tissue identification includes a computer-controlled motor driven heuristic probe with a multisensory tip. For neurosurgical applications, the instrument is mounted on a stereotactic frame for the probe to penetrate the brain in a precisely controlled fashion. The resistance of the brain tissue being penetrated is continually monitored by a miniaturized strain gauge attached to the probe tip. Other modality sensors may be mounted near the probe tip to provide real-time tissue characterizations and the ability to detect the proximity of blood vessels, thus eliminating errors normally associated with registration of pre-operative scans, tissue swelling, elastic tissue deformation, human judgement, etc., and rendering surgical procedures safer, more accurate, and efficient. A neural network program adaptively learns the information on resistance and other characteristic features of normal brain tissue during the surgery and provides near real-time modeling. A fuzzy logic interface to the neural network program incorporates expert medical knowledge in the learning process. Identification of abnormal brain tissue is determined by the detection of change and comparison with previously learned models of abnormal brain tissues. The operation of the instrument is controlled through a user friendly graphical interface. Patient data is presented in a 3D stereographics display. Acoustic feedback of selected information may optionally be provided. Upon detection of the close proximity to blood vessels or abnormal brain tissue, the computer-controlled motor immediately stops probe penetration. The use of this system will make surgical procedures safer, more accurate, and more efficient. Other applications of this system include the detection, prognosis and treatment of breast cancer, prostate cancer, spinal diseases, and use in general exploratory surgery.

Mah, Robert W.↗

Hawaii Play Fairway Analysis: Lanai Resistivity and Density 3D Inversion Models

To prepare for its third phase, the Hawaii Play Fairway project conducted groundwater sampling and analyses in ten locations in the Hawaiian islands, magnetotelluric (MT) and gravity surveys, as well as calculations of 3D subsurface stress due to the weight of the rock underlying the topography of the volcano. The subsurface stresses were used to evaluate the potential for fracture-induced permeability. Inversions of the MT and gravity data produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on Lanai, across Haleakala's SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawaii Island). The project developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The project then incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. These results were used to identify target sites for exploratory drilling. Spreadsheet information: Each sheet contains data for a particular depth in kilometers. Positive depths are above sea level, and negative below. For more information, go to the Hawaii Groundwater and Geothermal Resources Center website linked in the resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Global Comparison of CFD and Wind-Tunnel-Derived Force and Moment Databases for the Space Launch System

Recently a very large (739 runs) collection of high-fidelity RANS CFD solutions was obtained for Space Launch System ascent aerodynamics for the vehicle to be used for the first exploratory (unmanned) mission (EM-1). The extensive computations, at full-scale conditions, were originally developed to obtain detailed line and protuberance loads and surface pressures for venting analyses. The line loads were eventually integrated for comparison of the resulting forces and moments to the database that was derived from wind tunnel tests conducted at sub-scale conditions. The comparisons presented herein cover the ranges 0.5 < or = M(infinity) < or = 5, −6deg < or = alpha < or = 6deg, and −6deg < or = beta < or = 6deg. For detailed comparisons, slender-body-theory-based component build-up aero models from missile aerodynamics are used. The differences in the model fit coefficients are shown to be relatively small except for the low supersonic Mach number range, 1.1 < or = M(infinity) < or = 2.0. The analysis is intended to support process improvement and development of uncertainty models.

Hemsch, Michael J.↗

Hospice Landscape Report

In July 2018, CMS requested assistance from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to provide expert data science support aimed at developing algorithms for data mining of medical data for operational and payment purposes. The project is intended to be exploratory: work is aimed at alleviating challenges associated with improper payments, specifically audit methodologies and targeting and changes to risk scores. Project goals include developing new, sophisticated methods for audit targeting and improved profile– payment error correlations, specifically focused on Medicare Part C, the program under which MAOs provide health care services to beneficiaries. ORNL conducted RADV analyses against RAPS and EDS data as well as a hospice landscape analysis per a January 2015 dataset that included Medicare beneficiaries who were in hospice in 2017 and 2018. Ongoing work under this project also involves development of predictive models for RADV investigations and hospice landscape.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Detecting and Characterizing Fracture Zones Using a Convolutional Neural Network

This project directly supports the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) objectives outlined in the Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP) by advancing two key research areas: “Exploration and Characterization” and “Data, Modeling, and Analysis.” This project has successfully demonstrated a pre-drilling ability to image and characterize the distribution and connectivity of subsurface faults and fractures, key parameters for identifying permeable pathways that enable geothermal fluids to circulate and produce energy. Specifically, we developed and implemented innovative machine learning methodologies to enhance geothermal exploration. Large-scale faults were detected using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), while small-scale fractures were characterized using a novel Double-Beam Neural Network (DBNN). These tools have proven both technically effective and cost-efficient by reducing reliance on expensive exploratory drilling. Through collaboration with our geothermal industry partner, this research has significantly advanced techniques for identifying hidden geothermal systems and extending the productive lifespan of existing geothermal fields. We applied our methods to two geothermal fields—Soda Lake (Nevada) and Lightning Dock (New Mexico)—to identify shallow steam-charged fracture zones and characterize deep faults at depths of 1.5-2 km. The steam zone identified at the Soda Lake geothermal field showed excellent agreement with prior drilling data, validating the effectiveness of our approaches. In addition, the analysis revealed three new prospective drilling targets for further development and verification. The outcomes of this project improve our scientific understanding of geothermal reservoir behavior, enhance exploration efficiency, extend the economic life of existing geothermal plants. Ultimately, these advancements contribute to GTO’s goal of achieving more sustainable, affordable, and data-driven geothermal energy development across the United States.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Simulated Microgravity Affects Behavior and Cytokine Expression in the Hippocampus of Adult Mice: Influence of Mitochondrial Reactive Oxygen Species

The effects of microgravity, and social isolation on the CNS are poorly understood. We hypothesize that mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) play an important role in this process. Since mice are social animals, our lab developed a novel social model of hindlimb unloading (HU), enabling us to determine the effects of both social isolation and simulated microgravity. Responses to 30d of HU were compared in wildtype or transgenic MCAT mice who over-express human catalase in mitochondria. Abundance of 4-Hydroxynonenal, Park7 (a redox-sensitive chaperone and sensor of oxidative stress) and corticosterone were measured by ELISA. Cytokines related to inflammation in the hippocampus and in plasma were analyzed by a protein array. Behavioral data was collected over a 24-hour period.Socially housed HU mice were more active and conducted at least two times more exploratory activities, compared to normally loaded mice. Correlation analysis revealed that specific brain and plasma cytokines correspond with specific behaviors. Simulated microgravity and/or social isolation caused changes in cytokine patterns in the hippocampus and in plasma, with significant interaction effects of HU and genotype in expression levels of five cytokines (out of 35). Interestingly, elevation of these generally pro-inflammatory cytokines by HU in WT mice was mitigated in MCAT mice, suggesting a role for mitochondrial ROS signaling in inflammatory CNS responses to microgravity. Interestingly, socially housed mice had also lower level of 4HNE and higher level of Park7 in the hippocampus compared to singly housed animals. The cytokine responses to social isolation were more extensive in brain vs plasma. Further, there was no overlap in the cytokine repertoire regulated in response to microgravity versus, isolation suggesting divergent mechanisms or downstream signaling. These findings implicate a potentially important role for mitochondrial ROS in CNS responses to the challenges posed both by prolonged missions in space and bedrest on Earth

Guttmann, Linda↗

Exploratory investigation of a spanwise blowing concept for tip-stall control on cranked-arrow wings

A novel blowing concept aimed at controlling the tip-panel stall of 'cranked-arrow' type wings was experimentally investigated. A spanwise-directed jet sheet tangential to the upper surface, blown from a chordwise slot located at the crank, interacts obliquely with the external flow to generate a powerful and highly controllable vortex, substantially covering the tip panel. The incremental suction due to this jet vortex, coupled with its flow stabilization effect improves the tip-panel maximum lift and stall characteristics, leading to pitch-up alleviation and lateral control augmentation. Low-speed wind tunnel flow visualizations, pressure measurements and force/moment results are presented validating the flow-control concept and illustrating its potential on a generic crank-arrow wing model.

Rao, Dhanvada M.↗

Locus coeruleus catecholamines link neuroticism and vulnerability to tau pathology in aging

Higher neuroticism is a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD), and is implicated in disordered stress responses. The locus coeruleus (LC)-catecholamine system is activated during perceived threat and is a centerpiece of developing models of the pathophysiology of AD, as it is the first brain region to develop abnormal tau. We examined relationships among the "Big 5" personality traits, LC catecholamine synthesis capacity measured with [ 18 F]Fluoro-m-tyrosine PET, and tau burden measured with [ 18 F]Flortaucipir PET in cognitively normal older adults (n = 47). β-amyloid (Aβ) status was determined using [ 11 C]Pittsburgh compound B PET (n = 14 Aβ positive). Lower LC catecholamine synthesis capacity was associated with higher neuroticism, more depressive symptoms as measured by the Geriatric Depression Scale, and higher amygdala tau-PET binding. Exploratory analyses with other personality traits revealed that low trait conscientiousness was also related to both lower LC catecholamine synthesis capacity, and more depressive symptoms. A significant indirect path linked both high neuroticism and low conscientiousness to greater amygdala tau burden via their mutual association with low LC catecholamine synthesis capacity. Together, these findings reveal LC catecholamine synthesis capacity to be a promising marker of affective health and pathology burden in aging, and identifies candidate neurobiological mechanisms for the effect of personality on increased vulnerability to dementia.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

LDRD FY25 Program Overview

As Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program enters its fifth decade of leading-edge research and development, its impact and importance have never been stronger. The program continues to advance strategic investments in pioneering science, technology, and engineering, ensuring LLNL will be ready to deliver on our mission as it evolves over the coming decades. Investing in LDRD research, and the people who perform this critical work, gives LLNL the ability to sustain our role as a leader in the Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration enterprise. The LDRD program enables high-risk, high-payoff research that anticipates emerging threats and future mission needs. By nurturing the ingenuity of the Lab’s greatest asset, its people, LDRD funding advances not only our research but also grows and nurtures our workforce: engaging future innovators with student mentoring, challenging postdoctoral researchers to apply their skills to support national security, and strengthening the leadership skills of early career staff. This annual report documents how LDRD investments advance LLNL’s science, technology, and engineering across our mission space. To assess LDRD’s impact we track both short and long-term metrics such as peer-reviewed publications, number of students, or professional fellows. In addition to reviewing these metrics, I encourage you to delve deeper into the breadth of science and technology that illustrate the strategic value of this research portfolio. For instance, a recent exploratory research project used advanced manufacturing to construct miniaturized three-dimensional ion traps for a quantum computer with reduced quantum error rates to enable applications that address national security missions and support basic science. Another project has delved into studying detonation by examining deflagration to enhance the safety and security of the nuclear weapons stockpile. LDRD researchers are also deploying AI agents on two of the world’s most powerful supercomputers to automate and accelerate inertial confinement fusion experiments. Other teams are delivering more accurate optical constants to enable improved validation for aluminum to advance atomic and molecular physics models. LDRD-driven discoveries of how metals deform under extreme conditions strengthen our ability to model and design materials for demanding national security environments. National security challenges are increasingly complex and continuously evolving. LDRD focuses our most innovative science and technology on these challenges, ensuring the Laboratory is developing creative, forward-leaning solutions for our nation and the world. The following pages feature highlights of published scientific advances, patents, and honors that stem from LDRD investments. As you read this report, I hope you will understand how these investments position the Laboratory, and our partners, to meet the demands of the decades ahead.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Transonic flow over the NACA 64A006 with an oscillating flap-calculations based on the Euler equations

Exploratory calculations of transonic flows over the airfoil with a quarter-chord oscillating flap were made using a program which obtains approximate solutions to the Euler equations with an explicit, shock-capturing, finite-difference scheme. The calculations, essentially inviscid and for the airfoil at zero angle-of-attack in a free-stream, are at Mach numbers and reduced frequencies which were tested in experiments by Tijdeman. The oscillatory lifts from analogus calculations by various investigators generally agree with one another better than they agree with Tijdeman's data. Inclusion in the calculations of an approximate modelling of boundary conditions expected at slotted wind tunnel walls tends to shift some of the results closer to the experimental values.

Magnus, R. J.↗

Differential continuum damage mechanics models for creep and fatigue of unidirectional metal matrix composites

Three multiaxial isothermal continuum damage mechanics models for creep, fatigue, and creep/fatigue interaction of a unidirectional metal matrix composite volume element are presented, only one of which will be discussed in depth. Each model is phenomenological and stress based, with varying degrees of complexity to accurately predict the initiation and propagation of intergranular and transgranular defects over a wide range of loading conditions. The development of these models is founded on the definition of an initially transversely isotropic fatigue limit surface, static fracture surface, normalized stress amplitude function and isochronous creep damage failure surface, from which both fatigue and creep damage evolutionary laws can be obtained. The anisotropy of each model is defined through physically meaningful invariants reflecting the local stress and material orientation. All three transversely isotropic models have been shown, when taken to their isotropic limit, to directly simplify to previously developed and validated creep and fatigue continuum damage theories. Results of a nondimensional parametric study illustrate (1) the flexibility of the present formulation when attempting to characterize a large class of composite materials, and (2) its ability to predict anticipated qualitative trends in the fatigue behavior of unidirectional metal matrix composites. Additionally, the potential for the inclusion of various micromechanical effects (e.g., fiber/matrix bond strength, fiber volume fraction, etc.), into the phenomenological anisotropic parameters is noted, as well as a detailed discussion regarding the necessary exploratory and characterization experiments needed to utilize the featured damage theories.

Arnold, S. M.↗

“Thought I’d Share First” and Other Conspiracy Theory Tweets from the COVID-19 Infodemic: Exploratory Study

Background: The COVID-19 outbreak has left many people isolated within their homes; these people are turning to social media for news and social connection, which leaves them vulnerable to believing and sharing misinformation. Health-related misinformation threatens adherence to public health messaging, and monitoring its spread on social media is critical to understanding the evolution of ideas that have potentially negative public health impacts. Objective: The aim of this study is to use Twitter data to explore methods to characterize and classify four COVID-19 conspiracy theories and to provide context for each of these conspiracy theories through the first 5 months of the pandemic. Methods: We began with a corpus of COVID-19 tweets (approximately 120 million) spanning late January to early May 2020. We first filtered tweets using regular expressions (n=1.8 million) and used random forest classification models to identify tweets related to four conspiracy theories. Our classified data sets were then used in downstream sentiment analysis and dynamic topic modeling to characterize the linguistic features of COVID-19 conspiracy theories as they evolve over time. Results: Analysis using model-labeled data was beneficial for increasing the proportion of data matching misinformation indicators. Random forest classifier metrics varied across the four conspiracy theories considered (F1 scores between 0.347 and 0.857); this performance increased as the given conspiracy theory was more narrowly defined. We showed that misinformation tweets demonstrate more negative sentiment when compared to non-misinformation tweets and that theories evolve over time, incorporating details from unrelated conspiracy theories as well as real-world events. Conclusions: Although we focus here on health-related misinformation, this combination of approaches is not specific to public health and is valuable for characterizing misinformation in general, which is an important first step in creating targeted messaging to counteract its spread. Initial messaging should aim to preempt generalized misinformation before it becomes widespread, while later messaging will

5g↗

Integrated Research Plan to Assess the Combined Effects of Space Radiation, Altered Gravity, and Isolation and Confinement on Crew Health and Performance: Problem Statement

Future crewed exploration missions to Mars could last up to three years and will expose astronauts to unprecedented environmental challenges. Challenges to the nervous system during these missions will include factors of: space radiation that can damage sensitive neurons in the central nervous system (CNS); isolation and confinement can affect cognition and behavior; and altered gravity that will change the astronauts’ perception of their environment and their spatial orientation, and will affect their coordination, balance, and locomotion. In the past, effects of spaceflight stressors have been characterized individually. However, long-term, simultaneous exposure to multiple stressors will produce a range of interrelated behavioral and biological effects that have the potential to adversely affect operationally relevant crew performance. These complex environmental challenges might interact synergistically and increase the overall risk to the health and performance of the astronaut. Therefore, NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) has directed an integrated approach to characterize and mitigate the risk to the CNS from simultaneous exposure to these multiple spaceflight factors. The proposed research strategy focuses on systematically evaluating the relationships among three existing research risks associated with spaceflight: Risk of Acute (In-flight) and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation (CNS), Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders (BMed), and Risk of Impaired Control of Spacecraft/Associated Systems and Decreased Mobility Due to Vestibular/Sensorimotor Alterations Associated with Spaceflight (SM). NASA’s HRP approach is intended to identify the magnitude and types of interactions as they affect behavior, especially as it relates to operationally relevant performance (e.g., performance that depends on reaction time, procedural memory, etc.). In order to appropriately characterize this risk of multiple spaceflight environmental stressors, there is a recognition of the need to leverage research approaches using appropriate animal models and behavioral constructs. Very little has been documented on the combined effects of altered gravity, space radiation, and other psychological and cognitive stressors on the CNS. Preliminary evidence from rodents suggest that a combination of a minimum of exposures to even two of three stressors of: simulated space radiation, simulated microgravity, and simulated isolation and confinement, have produced different and more pronounced biological and performance effects than exposure to these same stressors individually. Structural and functional changes to the CNS of rodents exposed to transdisciplinary combined stressors indicate that important processes related to information processing are likely altered including impairment of exploratory and risk taking behaviors, as well as executive function including learning, memory, and cognitive flexibility — all of which may be linked to changes in related operational relevant performance. The fully integrated research plan outlines approaches to evaluate how combined, potentially synergistic, impacts of simultaneous exposures to spaceflight hazards will affect an astronaut’s CNS and their operationally relevant performance during future exploration missions, including missions to the Moon and Mars. The ultimate goals are to derive risk estimates for the combined, potentially synergistic, effects of the three major spaceflight hazards that will establish acceptable maximum decrement or change in a physiological or behavioral parameters during or after spaceflight, the acceptable limit of exposure to a spaceflight factor, and to evaluate strategies to mitigate any associated decrements in operationally relevant performance.

Steinberg, Susan L.↗

Principal Component Analysis of azimuthal flow in intermediate-energy heavy-ion reactions

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) via Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) of large datasets is an adaptive exploratory method to uncover natural patterns underlying the data. Several recent applications of the PCA-SVD to event-by-event single-particle azimuthal angle distribution matrices in ultra-relativistic heavy-ion collisions at RHIC-LHC energies indicate that the sine and cosine functions chosen a priori in the traditional Fourier analysis are naturally the most optimal basis for azimuthal flow studies according to the data itself. We perform PCA-SVD analyses of mid-central Au+Au collisions at $E$ $beam$ / $A$ =1.23 GeV simulated using an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model to address the following two questions: (1) if the principal components of the covariance matrix of nucleon azimuthal angle distributions in heavy-ion reactions around 1 GeV/nucleon are naturally sine and/or cosine functions and (2) what if any advantages the PCA-SVD may have over the traditional flow analysis using the Fourier expansion for studying the EOS of dense nuclear matter. In conclusion, we find that (1) in none of our analyses the principal components come out naturally as sine and/or cosine functions, (2) while both the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the covariance matrix are appreciably EOS dependent, the PCA-SVD has no apparent advantage over the traditional Fourier analysis for studying the EOS of dense nuclear matter using the azimuthal collective flow in heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Controlling Infrastructure Costs: Right-Sizing the Mission Control Facility

Johnson Space Center's Mission Control Center is a space vehicle, space program agnostic facility. The current operational design is essentially identical to the original facility architecture that was developed and deployed in the mid-90's. In an effort to streamline the support costs of the mission critical facility, the Mission Operations Division (MOD) of Johnson Space Center (JSC) has sponsored an exploratory project to evaluate and inject current state-of-the-practice Information Technology (IT) tools, processes and technology into legacy operations. The general push in the IT industry has been trending towards a data-centric computer infrastructure for the past several years. Organizations facing challenges with facility operations costs are turning to creative solutions combining hardware consolidation, virtualization and remote access to meet and exceed performance, security, and availability requirements. The Operations Technology Facility (OTF) organization at the Johnson Space Center has been chartered to build and evaluate a parallel Mission Control infrastructure, replacing the existing, thick-client distributed computing model and network architecture with a data center model utilizing virtualization to provide the MCC Infrastructure as a Service. The OTF will design a replacement architecture for the Mission Control Facility, leveraging hardware consolidation through the use of blade servers, increasing utilization rates for compute platforms through virtualization while expanding connectivity options through the deployment of secure remote access. The architecture demonstrates the maturity of the technologies generally available in industry today and the ability to successfully abstract the tightly coupled relationship between thick-client software and legacy hardware into a hardware agnostic "Infrastructure as a Service" capability that can scale to meet future requirements of new space programs and spacecraft. This paper discusses the benefits and difficulties that a migration to cloud-based computing philosophies has uncovered when compared to the legacy Mission Control Center architecture. The team consists of system and software engineers with extensive experience with the MCC infrastructure and software currently used to support the International Space Station (ISS) and Space Shuttle program (SSP).

Martin, Keith↗

Spatial and temporal prediction of radiation dose rates near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method. We then developed a modified Kalman filter coupled with a Gaussian process model to estimate the dose-rate time series at a given location and time. We applied this method to the Fukushima evacuation zone (as of March 2017), which included 17 monitoring post locations (with monitoring datasets collected between 2014 and 2018) and generated a time series of dose-rate maps. Our results show that this approach allows us to produce accurate spatial and temporal predictions of radiation dose-rate maps using limited spatiotemporal measurements.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗