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At least 361 records · Page 20

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Direct Radiative Effect to the Emission Inventory: a Case Study in Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

An ensemble approach is used to examine the sensitivity of smoke loading and smoke direct radiative effect in the atmosphere to uncertainties in smoke emission estimates. Seven different fire emission inventories are applied independently to WRF-Chem model (v3.5) with the same model configuration (excluding dust and other emission sources) over the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) biomass-burning region. Results for November and February 2010 are analyzed, respectively representing the start and end of the biomass burning season in the study region. For February 2010, estimates of total smoke emission vary by a factor of 12, but only differences by factors of 7 or less are found in the simulated regional (15degW-42degE, 13degS-17degN) and monthly averages of column PM(sub 2.5) loading, surface PM(sub 2.5) concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), smoke radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere and at the surface, and air temperature at 2 m and at 700 hPa. The smaller differences in these simulated variables may reflect the atmospheric diffusion and deposition effects to dampen the large difference in smoke emissions that are highly concentrated in areas much smaller than the regional domain of the study. Indeed, at the local scale, large differences (up to a factor of 33) persist in simulated smoke-related variables and radiative effects including semi-direct effect. Similar results are also found for November 2010, despite differences in meteorology and fire activity. Hence, biomass burning emission uncertainties have a large influence on the reliability of model simulations of atmospheric aerosol loading, transport, and radiative impacts, and this influence is largest at local and hourly-to-daily scales. Accurate quantification of smoke effects on regional climate and air quality requires further reduction of emission uncertainties, particularly for regions of high fire concentrations such as NSSA.

Sahel and sub-Saharan African region↗

Effects of Slag Ejection on Solid Rocket Motor Performance

In past firings of the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) both static test and flight motors have shown small pressure perturbations occurring primarily between 65 and 80 seconds. A joint NASA/Thiokol team investigation concluded that the cause of the pressure perturbations was the periodic ingestion and ejection of molten aluminum oxide slag from the cavity around the submerged nozzle nose which tends to trap and collect individual aluminum oxide droplets from the approach flow. The conclusions of the team were supported by numerous data and observations from special tests including high speed photographic films, real time radiography, plume calorimeters, accelerometers, strain gauges, nozzle TVC system force gauges, and motor pressure and thrust data. A simplistic slag ballistics model was formulated to relate a given pressure perturbation to a required slag quantity. Also, a cold flow model using air and water was developed to provide data on the relationship between the slag flow rate and the chamber pressure increase. Both the motor and the cold flow model exhibited low frequency oscillations in conjunction with periods of slag ejection. Motor and model frequencies were related to scaling parameters. The data indicate that there is a periodicity to the slag entrainment and ejection phenomena which is possibly related to organized oscillations from instabilities in the dividing streamline shear layer which impinges on the underneath surface of the nozzle.

Whitesides, R. Harold↗

Biomass burning aerosol radiative effects in the Southeast Atlantic depend strongly on meteorological forcing method

Biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) from African fires may strongly impact Earth’s radiation budget in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), but the sign and magnitude of the overall radiative effect (RE) remain uncertain. Aerosol–climate models are needed to separately quantify direct, indirect, and semi-direct REs. Here, we evaluate improved simulations with the UK Met Office's Unified Model and explore REs resulting from various methods used to match observed meteorology (nudging or running forecasts reinitialized at different frequencies). REs are calculated as differences in radiative fluxes between simulations with and without smoke emissions and with and without aerosol absorption. All model setups agree on net warming for the SEA dominated by the direct effect. Simulated smoke, clouds, and the direct effect agree better with observations than previous studies using the same model, though biases in aerosol extinction and liquid water path remain. Changes in cloud droplet number concentration due to BBA self-lofting influence how cleanly we can separate cloud effects into semi-direct and indirect effects. Total RE, which remains unaffected, ranges from +3.0 to +7.9 W m −2 . The 4.9 W m −2 spread arises mainly from simulated semi-direct effects. Forecasts three days long or less probably do not allow time for plausible differences in boundary layer properties due to semi-direct effects to accumulate. Free running simulations with and without smoke accumulate differences in meteorology that are likely spurious “butterfly effects”. We recommend future research quantifying BBA REs over weeks to months to use meteorological forcing techniques that allow aerosol absorption to affect the boundary layer.

Giuffrida, Eric [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts↗

Convolutional Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process and its Application to Wildfire Ignition Risk Quantification for Power Delivery Networks

To quantify wildfire ignition risks on power delivery networks, the current practice predominantly relies on the empirically calculated fire danger indices, which may not well capture the effects of dynamically changing environmental factors. This article proposes a spatio-temporal point process model, known as the Convolutional Non-homogeneous Poisson Process (cNHPP), and applies the model to quantify wildfire ignition risks for power delivery networks. The proposed model captures both the current (i.e., instantaneous) and cumulative (i.e., historical) effects of key environmental processes (i.e., covariates) on wildfire risks, as well as the spatio-temporal dependency among different segments of the power delivery network. The computation and interpretation of the intensity function are thoroughly investigated. We apply the proposed approach to estimate wildfire ignition risks on major transmission lines in California, using historical fire data, meteorological and vegetation data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Here, a comprehensive comparison study is performed to show the applicability and predictive capability of the proposed approach.

Non-homogeneous Poisson Process↗

Synergy Between Land Use and Climate Change Increases Future Fire Risk in Amazon Forests

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Le Page, Yannick↗

Communications System Concept of Operations (ConOp) for Supporting Second Shift (SS) Operations

Wildland fires take place most often in remote areas without access to communications infrastructure. Communication during wildfire operations is crucial for safe and effective command and control of air assets, ground-based firefighters, and fire management. Without connectivity, Incident Command (IC) cannot exchange information, receive alerts or work with all parties involved in the wildfire suppression operation. Current policy directs IC to use voice radio communications, which require no prior infrastructure, to provide information needed for the command, control and safety of personnel and resources. Cellular communications are used only for logistical purposes unless no other method is available. To address some of the shortcomings of the current state of communications, the Advanced Capabilities for Emergency Response Operations (ACERO) Second Shift (SS) technical team is developing characteristics of an air-to-ground Mesh Radio System (MRS) and preparing for a future demonstration. The MRS will allow air and ground assets to automatically join a radio network without relying on existing infrastructure and exchange information critical to maintaining situation awareness and air traffic management by the onsite IC. The MRS will also give users more options for communications in addition to voice communications.

David Fuller↗

Preliminary analytical results using surface current integration for predicting effects of surface pillows on RF performance

An overview of the fast integral RF evaluation (FIRE) program is presented. This program uses surface current integration to evaluate RF performance of antenna systems. It requires modeling of surfaces in X, Y, Z coordinates along equally spaced X and Y grids with Z in the focal directon. The far field contribution of each surface point includes the effects of the Z-component of surface current which is not included in the aperture integration technique. Because of this, surface current integration is the most effective and inclusive technique for predicting RF performance on non-ideal reflectors. Results obtained from use of the FIRE program and an aperture integration program to predict RF performance of a LSS antenna concept are presented.

Farrell, C. E.↗

Ammonia and nitric acid emissions from wetlands and boreal forest fires

Tests conducted during three (one boreal and two wetland) ecosystem fires have established the NH3- and HNO3-determination effectiveness of the 'tungsten oxide denuder' technique, using a low-flying helicopter to fly through biomass-burn smoke plumes. Both species were found to be present in the smoke plumes at levels much higher than background. Despite the differences between boreal and wetland ecosystems, HNO3 emissions were comparable; NH3 emissions, by contrast, were 5-8 times greater in the boreal fire than in the wetland fires. Biomass burning is found to make a significant role in the tropospheric ammonia budget.

Lebel, Peter J.↗

Effects of Buoyancy on Laminar, Transitional, and Turbulent Gas Jet Diffusion Flames

Gas jet diffusion flames have been a subject of research for many years. However, a better understanding of the physical and chemical phenomena occurring in these flames is still needed, and, while the effects of gravity on the burning process have been observed, the basic mechanisms responsible for these changes have yet to be determined. The fundamental mechanisms that control the combustion process are in general coupled and quite complicated. These include mixing, radiation, kinetics, soot formation and disposition, inertia, diffusion, and viscous effects. In order to understand the mechanisms controlling a fire, laboratory-scale laminar and turbulent gas-jet diffusion flames have been extensively studied, which have provided important information in relation to the physico-chemical processes occurring in flames. However, turbulent flames are not fully understood and their understanding requires more fundamental studies of laminar diffusion flames in which the interplay of transport phenomena and chemical kinetics is more tractable. But even this basic, relatively simple flame is not completely characterized in relation to soot formation, radiation, diffusion, and kinetics. Therefore, gaining an understanding of laminar flames is essential to the understanding of turbulent flames, and particularly fires, in which the same basic phenomena occur. In order to improve and verify the theoretical models essential to the interpretation of data, the complexity and degree of coupling of the controlling mechanisms must be reduced. If gravity is isolated, the complication of buoyancy-induced convection would be removed from the problem. In addition, buoyant convection in normal gravity masks the effects of other controlling parameters on the flame. Therefore, the combination of normal-gravity and microgravity data would provide the information, both theoretical and experimental, to improve our understanding of diffusion flames in general, and the effects of gravity on the burning process in particular.

Bahadori, M. Yousef↗

Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome

The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.

Kimball, John↗

Techniques for Estimating Emissions Factors from Forest Burning: ARCTAS and SEAC4RS Airborne Measurements Indicate which Fires Produce Ozone

Previous studies of emission factors from biomass burning are prone to large errors since they ignore the interplay of mixing and varying pre-fire background CO2 levels. Such complications severely affected our studies of 446 forest fire plume samples measured in the Western US by the science teams of NASA's SEAC4RS and ARCTAS airborne missions. Consequently we propose a Mixed Effects Regression Emission Technique (MERET) to check techniques like the Normalized Emission Ratio Method (NERM), where use of sequential observations cannot disentangle emissions and mixing. We also evaluate a simpler "consensus" technique. All techniques relate emissions to fuel burned using C(burn) = delta C(tot) added to the fire plume, where C(tot) approximately equals (CO2 = CO). Mixed-effects regression can estimate pre-fire background values of C(tot) (indexed by observation j) simultaneously with emissions factors indexed by individual species i, delta, epsilon lambda tau alpha-x(sub I)/C(sub burn))I,j. MERET and "consensus" require more than emissions indicators. Our studies excluded samples where exogenous CO or CH4 might have been fed into a fire plume, mimicking emission. We sought to let the data on 13 gases and particulate properties suggest clusters of variables and plume types, using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). While samples were mixtures, the NMF unmixing suggested purer burn types. Particulate properties (b scant, b abs, SSA, AAE) and gas-phase emissions were interrelated. Finally, we sought a simple categorization useful for modeling ozone production in plumes. Two kinds of fires produced high ozone: those with large fuel nitrogen as evidenced by remnant CH3CN in the plumes, and also those from very intense large burns. Fire types with optimal ratios of delta-NOy/delta- HCHO associate with the highest additional ozone per unit Cburn, Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics. Perhaps these plumes exhibit limited NOx binding to reactive organics

ozone↗

Transformer Neural Networks with Spatiotemporal Attention for Predictive Control and Optimization of Industrial Processes

In the context of real-time optimization and model predictive control of industrial systems, machine learning, and neural networks represent cutting-edge tools that hold promise for enhancing dynamic modeling. This work presents a novel transformer neural network architecture for real-time optimization and model predictive control. This network design includes a modified attention mechanism inspired by positional embedding attention from vision transformers and task-specific modifications to the input-output structure of the transformer’s decoder stack. Experiments were conducted using data from a 450 MW coal-fired power plant to evaluate this approach's effectiveness. The transformer neural network was compared with conventional recurrent models, including GRU and LSTM. The transformer exhibited a 6% increase in the R-squared (R2) value of predictions and an 83% reduction in mean squared error (MSE). Computation time was also reduced by 84% compared to conventional recurrent models.

Gallup, Ethan R.↗

LOX/GOX sensitivity of fluoroelastomers

The effect of formulation components and the addition of fire retardants on the impact sensitivity of Viton B fluoroelastomer in liquid oxygen was studied with the objective of developing a procedure for reliably reducing this sensitivity. Component evaluation, carried out on more than 40 combinations of components and cure cycles, showed that almost all the standard formulation agents, including carbon, MgO, Diak-3, and PbO2, will sensitize the Viton stock either singly or in combinations, some combinations being much more sensitive than others. Cure and postcure treatments usually reduced the sensitivity of a given formulation, often dramatically, but no formulated Viton was as insensitive as the pure Viton B stock. Coating formulated Viton with a thin layer of pure Viton gave some indication of reduced sensitivity, but additional tests are needed. It is concluded that sensitivity in formulated Viton arises from a variety of sources, some physical and some chemical in origin. Elemental analyses for all the formulated Vitons are reported as are the results of a literature search on the subject of LOX impact sensitivity.

Kirshen, N.↗

Preparation, testing, and delivery of low density polyimide foam panels

Plastic foams based on polyimide resins were shown to be stable at relatively high temperatures, and to possess very low flame spread and smoke generation characteristics. A system and process were developed to prepare low-density polyimide foam from a liquid formulation. The system is based on the reaction of micropulverized grade pyromellitic dianhydride with a polymeric diisocyanate. The panels produced were postcured at elevated temperatures to achieve maximum thermal and fire resistance, and incorporation of a fire retardant into the formulation was considered. The effects of a flame retardant (Flameout 5600B1) were investigated, but eliminated in preference to the postcuring approach.

Ball, G. L., III↗

Human supervision and microprocessor control of an optical tracking system

Gunners using small calibre anti-aircraft systems have not been able to track high-speed air targets effectively. Substantial improvement in the accuracy of surface fire against attacking aircraft has been realized through the design of a director-type weapon control system. This system concept frees the gunner to exercise a supervisory/monitoring role while the computer takes over continuous target tracking. This change capitalizes on a key consideration of human factors engineering while increasing system accuracy. The advanced system design, which uses distributed microprocessor control, is discussed at the block diagram level and is contrasted with the previous implementation.

Bigley, W. J.↗

Automatic compression adjusting mechanism for internal combustion engines

Means for controlling the compression pressure in an internal combustion engine having one or more cylinders and subject to widely varying power output requirements are provided. Received between each crank pin and connecting rod is an eccentric sleeve selectively capable of rotation about the crank pin and/or inside the rod and for latching with the rod to vary the effective length of the connecting rod and thereby the clearance volume of the engine. The eccentric normally rotates inside the connecting rod during the exhaust and intake strokes but a latching pawl carried by the eccentric is movable radially outwardly to latch the rod and eccentric together during the compression and power strokes. A control valve responds to intake manifold pressure to time the supply of hydraulic fluid to move the latch-pawl outwardly, varying the effective rod length to maintain a substantially optimum firing chamber pressure at all intake manifold pressures.

Akkerman, J. W.↗