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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Smoke and fire characteristics for cerrado and deforestation burns in Brazil - BASE-B experiment

Five test fires were performed during August and September 1990 in the cerrado (savannalike region) in central Brazil (three fires) and tropical moist forest (two fires) in the eastern Amazon. This paper details the gases released, the ratios of the gases to each other and to particulate matter, fuel loads, and the fraction consumed (combustion factors), and the fire behavior associated with biomass consumption. Models are presented for evaluating emission factors for CH4, CO2, CO, H2, and particles less than 2.5 micron diam (PM2.5) as a function of combustion efficiency. The ratio of carbon released as CO2 (combustion efficiency) for the cerrado fires averaged 0.94 and for the deforestation fires it decreased from 0.88 for the flaming phase to less than 0.80 during the smoldering phase of combustion. For tropical ecosystems, emissions of most products of incomplete combustion are projected to be lower than previous estimates for savanna ecosystems and somewhat higher for fires used for deforestation purposes.

Ward, D. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dissipative Dark Substructure: The Consequences of Atomic Dark Matter on Milky Way Analog Subhalos

Using cosmological hydrodynamical zoom-in simulations, we explore the properties of subhalos in Milky Way analogs that contain a subcomponent of atomic dark matter (ADM). ADM differs from cold dark matter (CDM) due to the presence of self-interactions that lead to energy dissipation, analogous to standard model baryons. This model can arise in dark sectors that are natural and theoretically motivated extensions to the standard model. The simulations used in this work were carried out using GIZMO and utilize the FIRE-2 galaxy formation physics in the standard model baryonic sector. For the parameter points we consider, the ADM gas cools efficiently, allowing it to collapse to the center of subhalos. This increases a subhalo's central density and affects its orbit, with more subhalos surviving small pericentric passages. The subset of subhalos that host satellite galaxies have cuspier density profiles and smaller stellar half-mass radii relative to CDM. The entire population of dwarf galaxies produced in the ADM simulations is more compact than those seen in CDM simulations, unable to reproduce the entire diversity of observed dwarf galaxy structures. Additionally, we also identify a population of highly compact subhalos that consist nearly entirely of ADM and form in the central region of the host, where they can leave distinctive imprints in the baryonic disk. This work presents the first detailed exploration of subhalo properties in a strongly dissipative dark matter scenario, providing intuition for how other regions of ADM parameter space, as well as other dark sector models, would impact galactic-scale observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Southern Hemisphere Carbon Monoxide Inferannual Variability Observed by Terra/Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT)

Biomass burning is an annual occurrence in the tropical southern hemisphere (SH) and represents a major source of regional pollution. Vegetation fires emit carbon monoxide (CO), which due to its medium lifetime is an excellent tracer of tropospheric transport. CO is also one of the few tropospheric trace gases currently observed from satellite and this provides long-term global measurements. In this paper, we use the 5 year CO data record from the Measurement Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument to examine the inter-annual variability of the SH CO loading and show how this relates to climate conditions which determine the intensity of fire sources. The MOPITT observations show an annual austral springtime peak in the SH zonal CO loading each year with dry-season biomass burning emissions in S. America, southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and northwestern Australia. Although fires in southern Africa and S. America typically produce the greatest amount of CO, the most significant inter-annual variation is due to varying fire activity and emissions from the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. We find that this variation in turn correlates well with the El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index. Between 2000 and 2005, emissions were greatest in late 2002 and an inverse modeling of the MOPITT data using the MOZART chemical transport model estimates the southeast Asia regional fire source for the year August 2002 to September 2003 to be 52 Tg CO. Comparison of the MOPITT retrievals and NOAA surface network measurements indicate that the latter do not fully capture the inter-annual variability or the seasonal range of the CO zonal average concentration due to biases associated with atmospheric and geographic sampling.

Edwards, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Development of an On-board Failure Diagnostics and Prognostics System for Solid Rocket Booster

We develop a case breach model for the on-board fault diagnostics and prognostics system for subscale solid-rocket boosters (SRBs). The model development was motivated by recent ground firing tests, in which a deviation of measured time-traces from the predicted time-series was observed. A modified model takes into account the nozzle ablation, including the effect of roughness of the nozzle surface, the geometry of the fault, and erosion and burning of the walls of the hole in the metal case. The derived low-dimensional performance model (LDPM) of the fault can reproduce the observed time-series data very well. To verify the performance of the LDPM we build a FLUENT model of the case breach fault and demonstrate a good agreement between theoretical predictions based on the analytical solution of the model equations and the results of the FLUENT simulations. We then incorporate the derived LDPM into an inferential Bayesian framework and verify performance of the Bayesian algorithm for the diagnostics and prognostics of the case breach fault. It is shown that the obtained LDPM allows one to track parameters of the SRB during the flight in real time, to diagnose case breach fault, and to predict its values in the future. The application of the method to fault diagnostics and prognostics (FD&P) of other SRB faults modes is discussed.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Additively Manufactured Combustion Devices Components for LOX/Methane Applications

Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has designed, fabricated, and hot-fire tested a variety of successful injectors, chambers, and igniters for potential liquid oxygen (LOX) and methane (CH4) systems since 2005. The most recent efforts have focused on components with additive manufacturing (AM) to include unique design features, minimize joints, and reduce final machining efforts. Inconel and copper alloys have been used with AM processes to produce a swirl coaxial injector and multiple methane cooled thrust chambers. The initial chambers included unique thermocouple ports for measuring local coolant channel temperatures along the length of the chamber. Results from hot-fire testing were used to anchor thermal models and generate a regeneratively cooled thruster for a 4,000 lbf LOX/CH4 engine. The completed thruster will be hot-fire tested in the summer of 2016 at MSFC. The thruster design can also be easily scaled and used on a 25,000 lbf engine. To further support the larger engine design, an AM gas generator injector has been designed. Hot-fire testing on this injector is planned for the summer of 2016 at MSFC.

Greene, Sandra Elam↗
NASA NTRS2020

High Resolution Global Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology Simulations Using the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast System, GEOS-CF

We will give an overview of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Composition Forecast system (GEOS-CF), a high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition model developed by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). This system combines the GEOS weather and aerosol model with the GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide a holistic view of atmospheric composition that captures a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and fine particulate matter. The spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees (approx. 25 km) is fine enough to resolve local features such as nighttime ozone titration previously resolved only by urban or regional models. Furthermore, since there are no boundary conditions for a global model, the GEOS-CF captures large-scale processes such as long-range transport of air pollutants from forest fires. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the model’s overall capability to reproduce the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. In addition, we show how machine learning techniques can be used to correct for sub-grid variability, which further improves model estimates at a given surface observation site. The GEOS-CF system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community alike and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. As an example, we will show the use of GEOS-CF during the Satellite Coastal and Oceanic Atmospheric Pollution Experiment (SCOAPE). The campaign, conducted in collaboration between NASA and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), aims to investigate the response of onshore air quality to Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil and gas exploration, development and production. Detailed gas-phase chemistry, as provided by GEOS-CF, is critical to understand the formation of air pollution related to hydrocarbon emissions from offshore oil and gas activities. The accuracy of GEOS-CF can be further improved by incorporating detailed offshore emissions compiled by BOEM.

Knowland, K. Emma↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests

Mountain ecosystems typically serve as carbon (C) sinks. However, studies also suggest that they could be C sources due to climate warming, drought and insect-related mortality, wildfires, and management actions. We applied the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), a process-based dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model, to investigate the role of ecosystem management in C storage under Mediterranean climate over the 21 st century. We modified LPJ-GUESS to include implementing mechanical thinning by vegetation size classes, components, and types along with a new mechanistic fire-occurrence model that accounts for wind speed and lightning ignition. Simulations show that mechanical thinning or prescribed fire performed 5-20 years in advance of a high-severity wildfire reduced direct wildfire C emissions by 38-66 %. Our results also show that long-term management actions repeated every 5-20 years, including thinning relatively small trees (diameters up to 7 inches or ∼178 mm), can maintain stable C levels in the forest and lower dead-fuel amounts. We found that, although prescribed fire mitigated wildfire severity, ecosystem C storage from reduced wildfire emissions can be outweighed by the added emissions from the prescribed fire themselves. Thinning plus removing and sequestering the thinned biomass can ensure that forests act as net C sinks through the end of the 21 st century. However, addition of prescribed fire is needed to reduce understory and lower the projected extent of high-severity wildfire. Achieving the competing goals of reducing wildfire and making the Sierra Nevada long-term C sink can be advanced through carefully coordinated thinning, sequestration of thinned biomass, and prescribed fire.

Climate solutions↗
NASA NTRS1981

Infrared radiation emerging from smoke produced by brush fires

The IR radiative transport properties of brush fire smoke clouds, computed for a model with finite horizontal dimensions as well as the more common plane-parallel model, are presented. The finite model is a three-dimensional version of the two-stream approximation applied to cubic clouds of steam, carbon, and silicates. Assumptions are made with regard to the shape and size distributions of the smoke particles. It is shown that 11.5-micron radiometry can detect fires beneath smoke clouds if the path integrated mass density of the smoke is less than or equal to 3 g/sq m.

Weinman, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Flight motor set 360L001 (STS-26R). (Reconstructed dynamic loads analysis)

A transient analysis was performed to correlate the predicted versus measured behavior of the Redesigned Solid Rocket Booster (RSRB) during Flight 360L001 (STS-26R) liftoff. Approximately 9 accelerometers, 152 strain gages, and 104 girth gages were bonded to the motors during this event. Prior to Flight 360L001, a finite element model of the RSRB was analyzed to predict the accelerations, strains, and displacements measured by this developmental flight instrumentation (DFI) within an order of magnitude. Subsequently, an analysis has been performed which uses actual Flight 360L001 liftoff loading conditions, and makes more precise predictions for the RSRB structural behavior. Essential information describing the analytical model, analytical techniques used, correlation of the predicted versus measured RSRB behavior, and conclusions, are presented. A detailed model of the RSRB was developed and correlated for use in analyzing the motor behavior during liftoff loading conditions. This finite element model, referred to as the RSRB global model, uses super-element techniques to model all components of the RSRB. The objective of the RSRB global model is to accurately predict deflections and gap openings in the field joints to an accuracy of approximately 0.001 inch. The model of the field joint component was correlated to Referee and Joint Environment Simulation (JES) tests. The accuracy of the assembled RSRB global model was validated by correlation to static-fire tests such DM-8, DM-9, QM-7, and QM-8. This validated RSRB global model was used to predict RSRB structural behavior and joint gap opening during Flight 360L001 liftoff. The results of a transient analysis of the RSRB global model with imposed liftoff loading conditions are presented. Rockwell used many gage measurements to reconstruct the load parameters which were imposed on the RSRB during the Flight 360L001 liftoff. Each load parameter, and its application, is described. Also presented are conclusions and recommendations based on the analysis of this load case and the resulting correlation between predicted and measured RSRB structural behavior.

Call, V. B.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solid Fuel Ignition and Extinction (SoFIE) Project on ISS

The Solid Fuel Ignition and Extinction (SoFIE) project studies ignition and flammability of solid spacecraft materials (fuels) in practical geometries and realistic atmospheric conditions. It is an experiment insert designed for use within the existing Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR). The CIR chamber provides a level of containment and permits testing at variable oxygen concentrations and pressures representative of current and planned NASA Space Exploration Atmospheres. The applications of SoFIE include: (1) Determining safer selection of cabin materials and validating NASA materials flammability selection using 1-g test protocols for low-gravity fires, (2) Improving understanding of early fire growth behavior, (3) Validating material flammability numerical models, (4) Determining optimal suppression techniques for burning materials by diluents, flow reduction, and venting, (5) Obtaining burning behavior of actual engineering materials planned for spacecraft, (6) Developing corresponding models of microgravity flame spread, flammability, and extinction, and use the results to improve normal gravity combustion models for terrestrial applications. The hardware permits a wide range of solid-material combustion and fire suppression studies. It supports multiple investigations using common infrastructure including sample holders, flow control, test sections, external radiant heaters, igniters, and diagnostics. SoFIE has been developed to meet the requirements of five unique investigations. It is currently being built and slated to begin operations on the ISS in July 2021. Given the general capabilities of the hardware insert, it is intended to be used as a facility for future researchers who can propose to NASA for related solid combustion studies.

Ferkul, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2012

Changes in the Intensity and Frequency of Atmospheric Blocking and Associated Heat Waves During Northern Summer Over Eurasia in the CMIP5 Model Simulations

The Russia heat wave and wild fires of the summer of 2010 was the most extreme weather event in the history of the country. Studies show that the root cause of the 2010 Russia heat wave/wild fires was an atmospheric blocking event which started to develop at the end of June and peaked around late July and early August. Atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010 was anomalous in terms of the size, duration, and the location, which shifted to the east from the normal location. This and other similar continental scale severe summertime heat waves and blocking events in recent years have raised the question of whether such events are occurring more frequently and with higher intensity in a warmer climate induced by greenhouse gases. We studied the spatial and temporal distributions of the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric blocking and associated heat waves for northern summer over Eurasia based on CMIPS model simulations. To examine the global warming induced change of atmospheric blocking and heat waves, experiments for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.S) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.S) are compared to the 20th century simulations (historical). Most models simulate the mean distributions of blockings reasonably well, including major blocking centers over Eurasia, northern Pacific, and northern Atlantic. However, the models tend to underestimate the number of blockings compared to MERRA and NCEPIDOE reanalysis, especially in western Siberia. Models also reproduced associated heat waves in terms of the shifting in the probability distribution function of near surface temperature. Seven out of eight models used in this study show that the frequency of atmospheric blocking over the Europe will likely decrease in a warmer climate, but slightly increase over the western Siberia. This spatial pattern resembles the blocking in the summer of 2010, indicating the possibility of more frequent occurrences of heat waves in western Siberia. In this talk, we will also discuss the potential effect of atmosphere-land feedback, particularly how the wetter spring affects the frequency and intensity of atmospheric blocking and heat wave during summer.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗
NASA NTRS2007

Nonequilibrium Stagnation-Line Radiative Heating for Fire II

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the shock-layer radiative heating to the Fire II vehicle using a new air radiation model and a viscous shock-layer flowfield model. This new air radiation model contains the most up-to-date properties for modeling the atomic-line, atomic photoionization, molecular band, and non-Boltzmann processes. The applied viscous shock-layer flowfield analysis contains the same thermophysical properties and nonequilibrium models as the LAURA Navier-Stokes code. Radiation-flowfield coupling, or radiation cooling, is accounted for in detail in this study. It is shown to reduce the radiative heating by about 30% for the peak radiative heating points, while reducing the convective heating only slightly. A detailed review of past Fire II radiative heating studies is presented. It is observed that the scatter in the radiation predicted by these past studies is mostly a result of the different flowfield chemistry models and the treatment of the electronic state populations. The present predictions provide, on average throughout the trajectory, a better comparison with Fire II flight data than any previous study. The magnitude of the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) contribution to the radiative flux is estimated from the calorimeter measurements. This is achieved using the radiometer measurements and the predicted convective heating. The VUV radiation predicted by the present model agrees well with the VUV contribution inferred from the Fire II calorimeter measurement, although only when radiation-flowfield coupling is accounted for. This agreement provides evidence that the present model accurately models the VUV radiation, which is shown to contribute significantly to the Fire II radiative heating.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Satellite-Based Assessment of Grassland Conversion and Related Fire Disturbance in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Spruce beetle-induced (Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby)) mortality on the Kenai Peninsula has been hypothesized by local ecologists to result in the conversion of forest to grassland and subsequent increased fire danger. This hypothesis stands in contrast to empirical studies in the continental US which suggested that beetle mortality has only a negligible effect on fire danger. In response, we conducted a study using Landsat data and modeling techniques to map land cover change in the Kenai Peninsula and to integrate change maps with other geospatial data to predictively map fire danger for the same region. We collected Landsat imagery to map land cover change at roughly five-year intervals following a severe, mid-1990s beetle infestation to the present. Landcover classification was performed at each time step and used to quantify grassland encroachment patterns over time. The maps of land cover change along with digital elevation models (DEMs),temperature, and historical fire data were used to map and assess wildfire danger across the study area. Results indicate the highest wildfire danger tended to occur in herbaceous and black spruce land cover types, suggesting that the relationship between spruce beetle damage and wildfire danger in costal Alaskan forested ecosystems differs from the relationship between the two in the forests of the coterminous United States. These change detection analyses and fire danger predictions provide the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge (KENWR) ecologists and other forest managers a better understanding of the extent and magnitude of grassland conversion and subsequent change in fire danger following the 1990s spruce beetle outbreak.

wildfire↗
NASA NTRS1990

The radiation budget of a Cirrus layer deduced from simultaneous aircraft observations and model calculations

Several aircraft were employed during the FIRE Cirrus IFO in order to make nearly simultaneous observations of cloud properties and fluxes. A segment of the flight data collected on 28 October 1988 during which the NASA Ames ER-2 overflew the NCAR King Air was analyzed. The ER-2 flew at high altitude making observations of visible and infrared radiances and infrared flux and cloud height and thickness. During this segment, the King Air flew just above the cloud base making observations of ice crystal size and shape, local meteorological variables, and infrared fluxes. While the two aircraft did not collect data exactly coincident in space and time, they did make observations within a few minutes of each other. For this case study, the infrared radiation balance of the cirrus layer is of primary concern. Observations of the upwelling 10 micron radiance, made from the ER-2, can be used to deduce the 10 micron optical depth of the layer. The upwelling broadband infrared flux is also measured from the ER-2. At the same time, the upwelling and downwelling infrared flux at the cloud base is obtained from the King Air measurements. Information on cloud microphysics is also available from the King Air. Using this data in conjunction with atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles from local radiosondes, the necessary inputs for an infrared radiative transfer model can be developed. Infrared radiative transfer calculations are performed with a multispectral two-stream model. The model fluxes at the cloud base and at 19 km are then compared with the aircraft observations to determine whether the model is performing well. Cloud layer heating rates can then be computed from the radiation exchange.

Ackerman, Thomas P.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Studying Turbulence Using Numerical Simulation Databases: Proceedings of the Summer Program - No. 7

The Seventh Summer Program of the Center for Turbulence Research took place in the four-week period, July 5 to July 31, 1998. This was the largest CTR Summer Program to date, involving thirty-six participants from the U. S. and nine other countries. Thirty-one Stanford and NASA-Ames staff members facilitated and contributed to most of the Summer projects. A new feature, and perhaps a preview of the future programs, was that many of the projects were executed on non-NASA computers. These included supercomputers located in Europe as well as those operated by the Departments of Defense and Energy in the United States. In addition, several simulation programs developed by the visiting participants at their home institutions were used. Another new feature was the prevalence of lap-top personal computers which were used by several participants to carry out some of the work that in the past were performed on desk-top workstations. We expect these trends to continue as computing power is enhanced and as more researchers (many of whom CTR alumni) use numerical simulations to study turbulent flows. CTR's main role continues to be in providing a forum for the study of turbulence for engineering analysis and in facilitating intellectual exchange among the leading researchers in the field. Once again the combustion group was the largest. Turbulent combustion has enjoyed remarkable progress in using simulations to address increasingly complex and practically more relevant questions. The combustion group's studies included such challenging topics as fuel evaporation, soot chemistry, and thermonuclear reactions. The latter study was one of three projects related to the Department of Energy's ASCI Program (www.llnl.gov/asci); the other two (rocket propulsion and fire safety) were carried out in the turbulence modeling group. The flow control and acoustics group demonstrated a successful application of the so-called evolution algorithms which actually led to a previously unknown forcing strategy for jets yielding increased spreading rate. A very efficient algorithm for flow in complex geometries with moving boundaries based on the immersed boundary forcing technique was tested with very encouraging results. Also a new strategy for the destruction of aircraft trailing vortices was introduced and tested. The Reynolds Averaged Modeling (RANS) group demonstrated that the elliptic relaxation concept for RANS calculations is also applicable to transonic flows with shocks; however, prediction of laminar/turbulent transition remains an important pacing item. A large fraction of the LES effort was devoted to the development and testing of a new algorithmic procedure (as opposed to phenomenological model) for subgrid scale modeling based on regularized de-filtering of the flow variables. This appears to be a very promising approach, and a significant effort is currently underway to assess its robustness in high Reynolds number flows and in conjunction with numerical methods for complex flows. As part of the Summer Program two review tutorials were given on Turbulent structures in hydrocarbon pool fires (Sheldon Tieszen), and Turbulent combustion modeling: from RANS to LES via DNS (Luc Vervisch); and two seminars entitled Assessment of turbulence models for engineering applications (Paul Durbin) and Subgrid-scale modeling for non-premixed, turbulent reacting flows (James Riley) were presented. A number of colleagues from universities, government agencies, and industry attended the final presentations of the participants on July 31 and participated in the discussions. There are twenty-six papers in this volume grouped in five areas. Each group is preceded with an overview by its coordinator.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1972

An analysis of the booster plume impingement environment during the space shuttle nominal staging maneuver

An experimental study of the plume impingement heating on the space shuttle booster afterbody resulting from the space shuttle orbiter engine plumes was conducted. The 1/100-scale model tests consisted of one and two orbiter engine firings on a flat plate, a flat plate with a fin, and a cylinder model. The plume impingement heating rates on these surfaces were measured using thin film heat transfer gages. Results indicate the engine simulation is a reasonable approximation to the two engine configuration, but more tests are needed to verify the plume model of the main engine configuration. For impingment, results show models experienced laminar boundary layer convective heating. Therefore, tests at higher Reynolds numbers are needed to determine impingment heating.

Wojciechowski, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Quéré, Corinne Le↗