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DOE OSTI2026

Historical and Future Global Irrigation Energy Consumption by Fuel and Region

Irrigation energy use is a significant component of agricultural production costs, contributing directly to the energy and emissions intensity of crop production and ultimately to food prices. Understanding the existing structure of irrigation energy consumption help achieve food-energy-water security and environmental goals. We present a comprehensive global data set detailing country-level irrigation energy consumption, emphasizing the comparative use of electric, diesel, and emerging solar pumps. To our knowledge, no such data set exists. We draw from a literature review to develop a logistic transformed regression model to estimate the shares of fuel sources for irrigation across countries over historical years to construct a global data set of country-level irrigation energy consumption by multiple fuel sources. Additionally, we compare our estimates of irrigation energy use with agricultural energy use as reported by the International Energy Agency and other external sources. We then use this data to project future irrigation energy use with the Global Change Analysis Model, which is a multisector dynamics model, to showcase the usage of this data set. Projections under the reference scenario show a global shift in fuel types for irrigation pumping, while patterns vary across regions, with India and Pakistan leading in solar-powered irrigation growth and countries like the USA and China continuing to rely primarily on grid electricity. This data set provides a resource to understand the role of irrigation fuel choices within the broader energy sector, as well as the connected agricultural, land use, and water sectors under alternative future scenarios, enabling informed decision making toward efficient agricultural practices.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins

Droughts across the U.S. have imposed substantial challenges to the management of water resources. Reservoir drought, one type of hydrological drought, is characterized by abnormally low reservoir storage levels, reflecting combined impacts of natural water shortages and water management practices. We investigate how reservoir drought signatures, particularly onset, severity, duration, recovery and frequency, may shift under rising temperatures, and how these shifts vary by reservoir typology and degree of regulation. By coupling atmosphere-land-river models with reservoir operations at ~12-km resolution, we simulated reservoir storage and characterized reservoir droughts across five heavily regulated U.S. basins. Our findings reveal significant regional and functional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under the scenario of rising temperatures. Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region are projected to become more resilient, while systems in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations and slower recovery. With respect to primary function, reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation, are most susceptible to future drought stress. These results are valuable in understanding water availability in highly regulated environments, and the influence of hydrometeorological conditions on storage dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first of its kind benchmark for reservoir droughts at a continental scale to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts. Future research is needed to link reservoir drought conditions to actual supply shortages across competing water uses, while leveraging existing adaptive management strategies and coordinated reservoir operations.

reservoir↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Thermodynamic Effects on Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Isolated Deep Convection Over the US: A Case Study

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection (IDC) significantly influence local weather conditions and the hydrological cycle across the United States. Their future changes under warming is critical to the society. However, the exact impacts of thermodynamic environmental changes on them are difficult to resolve using climate model simulations which integrate both dynamic and thermodynamic factors. This study explores a theoretical modeling approach to isolate environmental thermodynamic effects on their future changes through a case study. For a 50-day period during the 2020 summer, a pair of convection-permitting model simulations indicate contrasting changes in MCSs and IDC between inland and coastal regions under pseudo global warming. Driven by the thermodynamic environments of these simulations, a single-column parcel model indicates a decrease in the frequency of IDC occurrences, along with increases in duration and precipitation amount under warming, attributable to rising most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), convective inhibition (MUCIN), and precipitable water (PW). A multi-column parcel model reveals contrasting changes in the frequency and mean area of MCSs between inland and coastal regions, underscoring the increase in mean MUCIN over inland regions and increases in mean MUCAPE and PW over coastal regions. The increase in mean MCS area over inland regions is linked to the interplay between accelerated gust fronts and enhanced subsidence strength, which is further traced to the unchanged mean MUCIN but increased mean MUCAPE in large-scale environments. In conclusion, these case study results suggest a major role of thermodynamic environmental changes in controlling characteristics of MCSs and IDC under warming.

Mesoscale convective system↗

DOE OSTI2024

Genome resources for three modern cotton lines guide future breeding efforts

Cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.) is the key renewable fibre crop worldwide, yet its yield and fibre quality show high variability due to genotype-specific traits and complex interactions among cultivars, management practices and environmental factors. Modern breeding practices may limit future yield gains due to a narrow founding gene pool. Precision breeding and biotechnological approaches offer potential solutions, contingent on accurate cultivar-specific data. Here we address this need by generating high-quality reference genomes for three modern cotton cultivars (‘UGA230’, ‘UA48’ and ‘CSX8308’) and updating the ‘TM-1’ cotton genetic standard reference. Despite hypothesized genetic uniformity, considerable sequence and structural variation was observed among the four genomes, which overlap with ancient and ongoing genomic introgressions from ‘Pima’ cotton, gene regulatory mechanisms and phenotypic trait divergence. Differentially expressed genes across fibre development correlate with fibre production, potentially contributing to the distinctive fibre quality traits observed in modern cotton cultivars. These genomes and comparative analyses provide a valuable foundation for future genetic endeavours to enhance global cotton yield and sustainability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Discovering tungsten-based composites as plasma facing materials for future high-duty cycle nuclear fusion reactors

Abstract Despite of excellent thermal properties and high sputtering resistance, pure tungsten cannot fully satisfy the requirements for plasma facing materials in future high-duty cycle nuclear fusion reactions due to the coupled extreme environments, including the high thermal loads, plasma exposure, and radiation damage. Here, we demonstrated that tungsten-based composite materials fabricated using spark-plasma sintering (SPS) present promising solutions to these challenges. Through the examination of two model systems, i.e., tungsten-zirconium composite for producing porous tungsten near the surface and dispersoid-strengthened tungsten, we discussed both the strengths and limitations of the SPS-fabricated materials. Our findings point towards the need for future studies aimed at optimizing the SPS process to achieve desired microstructures and effective control of oxygen impurities in the tungsten-based composite materials.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions

Climate-induced changes in hypoxia are among the most serious threats facing estuaries, which are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth. Future projections of estuarine hypoxia typically involve long-term multi-decadal continuous simulations or more computationally efficient time slice and delta methods that are restricted to short historical and future periods. We make a first comparison of these three methods by applying a linked terrestrial–estuarine model to the Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary in the eastern United States. Results show that the time slice approach accurately captures the behavior of the continuous approach, indicating a minimal impact of model memory. However, increases in mean annual hypoxic volume by the mid-twenty-first century simulated by the delta approach (+ 19%) are approximately twice as large as the time slice and continuous experiments (+ 9% and + 11%, respectively), indicating an important impact of changes in climate variability. Our findings suggest that system memory and projected changes in climate variability, as well as simulation length and natural variability of system hypoxia, should be considered when deciding to apply the more computationally efficient delta and time slice methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll

Enewetak Atoll underwent 43 historical nuclear tests from 1948 to 1958, including the first hydrogen bomb test, resulting in a substantial nuclear material fallout contaminating the Atoll and the lagoon waters. The radionuclide fallout material deposited in lagoon sediments and land soil will remain for decades to come. With intensifying climate and extreme weather events, the possibility of redistribution of deposited radionuclide material has become a great concern. This study uses a numerical modeling approach to estimate the potential elevated radionuclide concentrations that can be distributed during storm events under current and future climates. We simulated three historical storm scenarios that are most likely to impact Atoll’s environment and remobilize the radionuclide-bound sediments. WRF-ARW was used to reconstruct these storm scenarios under current year (2015) and future year (2090) climates. Storm-induced ocean hydrodynamics conditions were generated using FVCOM. FVCOM-ICM was externally coupled to simulate the fate and transport of radionuclides. Given that the 239 Pu is the largest inventory of the lagoon and Atoll islands, the model results show the highest average 239 Pu concentration that an island may be exposed to is 3.25E-4 Bq/m 3 (becquerel per cubic meters), which is an increase of 84 times the average baseline/existing 239 Pu concentration without the storm conditions. The overall increase in 239 Pu average over all the islands of Atoll is about 20 folds relative to the baseline concentration. Despite the high relative increase ratios, the significantly low activity concentrations may not pose an immediate exposure risk. However, due to the limitations of the study and uncertainties/biases in the historical data used, further research supported by field surveys to better characterize the current contamination level may be needed to make more accurate predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Historical sensible-heat-flux variations key to predicting future hydrologic sensitivity

Under anthropogenic climate change (CC), the global hydrological cycle intensifies at a rate known as hydrologic sensitivity (HS). Global climate models (GCMs) exhibit substantial uncertainty in HS. Past work suggests that another form of HS, derived from internal climate variability (IV), is useful for constraining this uncertainty. However, these two forms of HS are weakly related. Here we show that decomposing HS under both CC and IV, based on the global energy budget, provides insight into the likely range of future HS. We find that sensible heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean is not accounted for in the atmospheric energy budget under IV, masking the connection between HS under IV and CC. Removing this term, a closer relationship emerges. We use observations in conjunction with this relationship to suggest an upward shift in the likely range of future HS (66% confidence interval: 2.00–2.36 W m -2 K -1

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Concentrating solar thermal power in the U.S.: lessons from setbacks at Ivanpah, light for the future

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) exhibits promise as a source of firm electricity. The proposed termination of Ivanpah’s power purchase agreement hinders confidence in the country’s CSP future. This work highlights how the lack of thermal energy storage (TES) undermined the first-of-a-kind plant’s economics as California’s grid transformed. Then, possible futures of the Ivanpah facility are analyzed; results show retrofitting with state-of-the-art TES systems could provide better returns.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

An experimentally informed design process for future inertial confinement fusion facilities

The achievement of ignition in the laboratory has renewed interest in defining the requirements for a future high-gain inertial confinement fusion (ICF) facility. Our best chance of predicting future ICF performance is with 3-D radiation hydrodynamic simulations that have been benchmarked against experimental data, but their high computational cost is prohibitive for use in practical design studies. We introduce a hierarchical approach where 3-D simulations are tuned to match experimental measurements and used to train 3-D degradation models in 1-D simulations allowing for accurate predictions over the entire OMEGA direct-drive database. A genetic algorithm was used in combination with the trained 1-D simulations to search for optimal direct-drive implosion designs at driver energies ranging from 20 kJ to 10 MJ. As the fidelity of 3-D codes improves, this approach will provide a viable experimentally informed tool for defining the next ICF facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution climate model datasets for energy infrastructure planning in a renewable-dependent future

Electrification and renewables deployment efforts are amplifying the interdependence of the climate and energy systems. Increases in climate model resolution, which is now approaching that of reanalysis datasets and operational weather forecast models, present a unique opportunity to use future climate projections for energy infrastructure planning. In this Perspective, we review recent developments in high-resolution climate modeling, which have been driven by increased computing power and advanced software tools. We then look ahead to discuss how high-resolution climate data can be used to plan for a renewable-dependent future, and envision a unified climate-energy model framework that captures the two-way feedbacks between these interdependent systems.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the KSTAR experiments and future plan

The Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) device has recently entered a new phase of operation following the installation of a tungsten mono-block divertor, providing a unique platform to investigate high-performance, long-pulse plasma scenarios for future reactors. The 2023–2024 experimental campaigns demonstrated significant progress in commissioning the tungsten divertor, developing plasma operation scenarios, and achieving real-time control. Comparative studies revealed increased core radiation losses and associated performance degradation relative to the carbon divertor environment. Alleviation strategies, such as optimized neutral beam injection timing, boron powder seeding, and impurity control through gas puffing, were shown to reduce tungsten accumulation and extend high-performance phases, including record H-mode operation exceeding 100 s. International collaboration enabled the first demonstration of high poloidal beta scenarios with an internal transport barrier on KSTAR. Advances in control included upgraded real-time resonant magnetic perturbation schemes and disruption forecasting. Furthermore, divertor detachment control using a new surrogate-model-based approach with real-time radiation imaging demonstrated active impurity and heat flux management. Supported by enhanced heating, current drive, and diagnostic systems, these achievements offer valuable insights into tungsten impurity behavior, transport physics, and control strategies for future reactors including ITER. Planned upgrades toward a full-tungsten wall and ITER-aligned real-time plasma control will further establish KSTAR as a leading experimental platform for developing operational scenarios required to achieve steady-state, burning plasma conditions.

KSTAR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the response to electrons and pions in the scintillating fiber and lead calorimeter for the future electron-ion collider

The performance of the Baby Barrel Electromagnetic Calorimeter (Baby BCAL) — a small-scale lead-scintillating-fiber (Pb/ScFi) prototype of the GlueX Barrel Electromagnetic Calorimeter (BCAL) — was tested in a dedicated beam campaign at the Fermilab Test Beam Facility (FTBF). This study provides a benchmark for the Pb/ScFi component of the future Barrel Imaging Calorimeter (BIC) in the ePIC detector at the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). The detector response to electrons and pions was studied at beam energies between 4 and 10 GeV, extending previous GlueX tests to a higher energy regime. The calibrated detector exhibits good linearity within uncertainties, and its electron energy resolution meets EIC requirements. The data further constrain the constant term in the energy resolution to below 1.9%, improving upon previous constraints at lower energies. Simulations reproduce key features of the electron and pion data within the limitations of the collected dataset and the FTBF test environment. Electron-pion separation in the test beam setup was analyzed using multiple methods, incorporating varying degrees of beam-related effects. The inclusion of longitudinal shower profile information enhanced the separation performance, underscoring its relevance for the full-scale BIC in ePIC. These results provide essential benchmarks for the Pb/ScFi section of the future BIC, validating detector simulations and guiding optimization strategies for electron-pion discrimination.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring genetic diversity, population structure, and subgenome differences in the allopolyploid Camelina sativa : implications for future breeding and research studies

Abstract Camelina (Camelina sativa), an allohexaploid species, is an emerging aviation biofuel crop that has been the focus of resurgent interest in recent decades. To guide future breeding and crop improvement efforts, the community requires a deeper comprehension of subgenome dominance, often noted in allopolyploid species, “alongside an understanding of the genetic diversity” and population structure of material present within breeding programs. We conducted population genetic analyses of a C. sativa diversity panel, leveraging a new genome, to estimate nucleotide diversity and population structure, and analyzed for patterns of subgenome expression dominance among different organs. Our analyses confirm that C. sativa has relatively low genetic diversity and show that the SG3 subgenome has substantially lower genetic diversity compared to the other two subgenomes. Despite the low genetic diversity, our analyses identified 13 distinct subpopulations including two distinct wild populations and others putatively representing founders in existing breeding populations. When analyzing for subgenome composition of long non-coding RNAs, which are known to play important roles in (a)biotic stress tolerance, we found that the SG3 subgenome contained significantly more lincRNAs compared to other subgenomes. Similarly, transcriptome analyses revealed that expression dominance of SG3 is not as strong as previously reported and may not be universal across all organ types. From a global analysis, SG3 “was only significant higher expressed” in flower, flower bud, and fruit organs, which is an important discovery given that the crop yield is associated with these organs. Collectively, these results will be valuable for guiding future breeding efforts in camelina.

Agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing Top-Quark–Electron Interactions at Future Colliders

Top quark interactions offer a window into possible new high scale physics and many models of new physics predict that the top quark interactions will deviate significantly from those predicted by the standard model. We present an analysis of the experimental restrictions on anomalous 4-fermion 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − $⁢𝑡\bar{⁢𝑡}$ operators that is accurate to next-to-leading order (NLO) in both the electroweak and QCD interactions within the standard model effective field theory framework. At NLO, there is sensitivity to an extended set of anomalous interactions beyond those probed at leading order. A comparison of current limits from electroweak precision observables, along with expected future limits from Drell-Yan and $⁢𝑡\bar{⁢𝑡}$𝑒 +⁢ 𝑒 − production at the high luminosity LHC, from deep inelastic scattering at the EIC, and from projected sensitivities at the future FCC-ee and CEPC machines demonstrates that each of these programs extends the precision understanding of the interactions of top quarks.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

New physics contamination to precision luminosity measurements at future 𝑒 +⁢ 𝑒 − colliders

Several key observables of the high-precision physics program at future lepton colliders will critically depend on the knowledge of the absolute machine luminosity. The determination of the luminosity relies on the precise knowledge of some reference process, which is, in principle, not affected by unknown physics, so that its cross section can be computed within a well-established theory, like the Standard Model. Quantifying the uncertainties induced by possible new physics effects on such processes is, therefore, crucial. We present an investigation of light and heavy new physics contributions to the small-angle Bhabha process at future 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − colliders, and we discuss possible strategies to remove the contamination due to heavy degrees of freedom by relying on observables that are independent of the absolute luminosity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Behavior of Multiple PV Plants in Future Power Grids During Events

As the integration of multiple photovoltaic (PV) plants into power grids grows, the dynamic response of each plant and their interactions during transient events demands a deeper understanding. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of multiple PV plants connected to future power grids is comprehensively explored using site-specific high-fidelity electromagnetic transient (EMT) PV plant models and generic high-fidelity EMT PV plant models. This research demonstrates the need to employ multiple high-fidelity EMT PV plant models to understand the intricate interactions between multiple PV plants during grid events. These models, developed in Fortran within the PSCAD environment, encompass a range of operational scenarios and plant configurations, offering invaluable insights crucial for future system planning with multiple PV plants to enhance grid stability.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Perspective on the Impact of Group Delay Dispersion in Future Terahertz Wireless Systems

This article discusses the challenges and opportunities of managing group delay dispersion (GDD), and its relation to the performance standards of future sixth-generation (6G) wireless communication systems utilizing terahertz frequency waves. The unique susceptibilities of 6G systems to GDD are described, along with a quantitative description of the sources of GDD, including multipath, rough surface scattering, intelligent reflecting surfaces, and propagation through the atmosphere. An experimental case-study is presented that confirms previous models quantifying the impact of atmospheric GDD. Several GDD manipulation strategies are presented, illustrating their hindered effectiveness in the 6G context. Conversely, some benefits of leveraging GDD to enhance 6G systems, such as improved security and simplified hardware, are also discussed. Finally, a perspective on using photonic GDD control devices is provided, revealing quantitative benefits that may unburden existing equalization schemes. Here, the article argues that GDD will uniquely and significantly impact some 6G systems, but that its careful consideration along with new mitigation strategies, including photonic devices, will help optimize system performance. The conclusion provides a perspective to guide future research in this area.

Strecker, Karl↗