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DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Updraft Width Modulates Ambient Atmospheric Controls on Convective Cloud Depth

Abstract The depth of convective clouds affects vertical transport of atmospheric constituents, influencing downstream weather and climate. Atmospheric controls on the maximum depth reached by moist convection are investigated with radar‐tracked convective cells tagged with sounding‐derived atmospheric parameters from a field campaign in central Argentina. Regression analyses show that narrow (<12‐km diameter) and wide (>16‐km diameter) cell depths respond to disparate factors, where cell areas are defined using composite reflectivity signatures. Undiluted lifted parcel indices including convective available potential energy (CAPE) and level of neutral buoyancy (LNB) are top predictors of wide cell maximum depth while mid‐tropospheric relative humidity is the top predictor of narrow cell maximum depth. Because narrow cells are more numerous than wide cells, the overall outcome of the full cell population does not strongly correlate with CAPE and LNB conditions. Tracked cells and atmospheric conditions in a simulation with 3‐km grid spacing covering the field campaign produce similar results to those observed. Narrow cells that are relatively deep have a cooler and moister mid‐troposphere with weaker free tropospheric subsidence, while relatively deep wide cells have much warmer and moister lower tropospheric conditions. These atmospheric differences are present 1 hr before cell initiation at both a fixed observing site and variable cell initiation locations. Simulated narrow cell maximum equivalent potential temperature decreases with height at a rate similar to the ambient vertical gradient, causing these cells to fall short of their LNB and supporting the view that entrainment‐driven dilution is a dominant control on their depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Virtual Dynamic Grid Impedance and Its Impacts on Harmonics and Stability of Inverter Based Resources Plant

Nowadays, a large number of inverter-based resources (IBRs) are integrated into the grid at a single connection point as an IBR plant. In this article, a virtual dynamic grid impedance concept is introduced to evaluate the harmonics and stability for grid integration of an IBR plant containing multiple IBRs. First, a detailed theoretical study is conducted to build a foundation of the virtual grid impedance concept, which is a dynamic impedance that changes with the number of IBRs added into an IBR plant. Then, based on the new virtual dynamic grid impedance concept, frequency spectrum analysis is performed to explore harmonic impact at the interconnection point for an IBR plant with IBRs having L, LC, and LCL filters, respectively. An electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation model of a grid-connected IBR plant is developed to explore the harmonics and stability of the IBR plant connected to the grid as well as the reliable operation of IBRs within the plant from the novel virtual equivalent dynamic grid impedance point of view. Hardware experiments are conducted to validate the EMT simulation evaluation. The results show that the number of IBRs added into an IBR plant influences the grid impedance, i.e., grid strength, and the grid impedance variation has multiple impacts on the IBR plant and IBRs within the plant depending on the grid-connected filters of the IBRs.

grid impedance↗

DOE OSTI2025

Per-Phase Control for CHB Converters with Negative-Sequence Current and DC Voltage Balancing Control

This paper presents a per-phase controller for a grid-connected Cascaded H-Bridge (CHB) converter featuring negative sequence current regulation and DC bus voltage balancing capabilities. Unlike conventional three-phase controllers, each phase of the CHB can be separately and controlled to regulate the DC voltage and reactive power flow. per-phase negative sequence current control strategy is incorporated into the proposed controller to ensure compliance with IEEE Standard 2800-2022, which requires the absorption of negative-sequence reactive current during grid voltage disturbances. Furthermore, a feed-forward control-based DC bus voltage balancing method is employed, which eliminates the need for the integrator commonly used in traditional approaches. The performance of the proposed controller is validated under various unbalanced grid scenarios and DC bus voltage imbalances through electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation using a three-phase, three-level grid-connected CHB–Dual Active Bridge (DAB) converter testbed developed on MATLAB/Simulink. Additionally, the performance of the negative-sequence current regulation is investigated through simulation under different unbalanced grid voltage scenarios.

negative sequence current↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating fine-resolution, regional outputs of a variable resolution global climate model

Climate models have been used to study water resources and regional hydrologic responses to climate change, but climate model outputs must be downscaled to provide relevant regional data. However, the accuracy of this regional data is limited by uncertainties across and within downscaling methods, uncertainty across global outputs, and discontinuities at downscaled boundaries. A new alternative to traditional downscaling is a variable resolution model that incorporates fine-resolution regions directly into a coarse-resolution, global climate simulation in order to capture contiguous dynamics across resolution boundaries. In this study, we used the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to generate one-eighth degree (14 km) fine-resolution outputs for the western U.S. and eastern China from 1970-2006. We focus our evaluation on precipitaiton, temperature, snow pack, solar radiation, and wind. We compare the model outputs with remote-sensing-based precipitation data, and both reanalysis and gridded weather station data for precipitation and temperature. VR-CESM generally has a cold bias in winter and a warm bias in summer in the western U.S., which compensate each other to reduce the annual bias. In eastern China, however, the sign of temperature biases are more consistent throughout the year with cold biases in the higher mountains and warm biases throughout most of the rest of the region. Precipitation biases are dependent upon reference data, and show slight overestimation in high mountain regions in both the U.S. and China with respect to gridded weather station data. Simulated snow cover in the western U.S. is reasonable compared to remote sensing data, but snow cover and snow water equivalent have larger biases when compared to reanalysis data. In eastern China there are widespread snow cover biases compared to remote sensing data. VR-CESM underestimates downward shortwave radiation to a greater degree in summer than in winter, and underestimates surface layer windspeed over mountains to a greater degree than in other areas. Comparison between VR-CESM and a coarser simulation (1-degree Beijing Climate Center model) shows reduced precipitation biases in the mountainous regions with finer resolution, indicating the value of variable-resolution modeling for reigonal studies.

Di Vittorio, Alan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of lithium transport using the BOUT++ framework

A numerical model that calculates the collisional interactions between the lithium atoms from a lithium pellet and the background plasmas has been upgraded. The ion density ($N_t$), electron temperature ($T_e$), ion temperature ($T_i$) and parallel ion velocity ($V_{∥, i}$) are used to characterize the background plasmas. The lithium atom density ($N^{a}_{Li}$) and parallel velocity ($V_{∥,a}$) of lithium atoms evolve with time. For each lithium ion, the density ($N_{Li^{n+}}$), temperature ($T_{Li^{n+}}$) and parallel velocity ($V_{∥, Li^{n+}}$) are self-consistently calculated. A C-mod lower single null equilibrium is used to generate the grid for the BOUT++ simulation. The lithium atoms can be fully ionized to $Li^{3+}$ in ~2 μs. The rapid radial and poloidal expansion of the lithium ions are found in the simulation. After the collision interaction process, the electron temperature rapidly decreases at the pellet location; then, it rapidly poloidally expands, and the temperature at the pellet location starts to recover. The electron pressure increases at the pellet location despite the decrease in electron temperature because of the extra electrons from the lithium ionization. The ion pressure profile decreases in the pellet location due to the decrease in ion temperature.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of compound flooding in Japan using a nationwide model

For this study, a high-resolution, summit-to-sea unstructured-grid model was used to simulate two compound flooding events in different geomorphic settings in Japan: the July 2012 flood in Kumamoto city and July 2018 flood in Okayama City, both caused by a torrential rainfall during seasonal Meiyu front but otherwise exhibiting quite different compound flood characteristics. The model shows good performance in simulating flooding extent; e.g., the Hit Rate for the inundation event in 2018 exceeds 0.9. Sensitivity tests were conducted to determine the roles/significance of levee structures along major rivers in coastal regions. Our results indicate that riverine and oceanic factors as well as levees significantly contribute to the observed flooding extents, and we are able to quantify the contributions from each factor at different locations. The model has been implemented operationally as the first nationwide 3-day compound flooding forecast system for Japan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

V1G Frequency Regulation: Algorithm Development, Validation & Analysis at Scale

Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory developed and validated a high-fidelity digital twin of a smart charging (V1G) ecosystem to model the participation of up to 1,000 unique electric vehicles (EVs) in the PJM frequency regulation market. Utilizing a discrete-event framework, the simulation models complex interactions, from dynamic grid signals (updated every 2 seconds) to individual EV charging dynamics. The simulation incorporates multiple EV models created from real-world lab test data. Researchers tested multiple control algorithms to balance the dual objectives of maximizing aggregator’s revenue and driver charging needs. Results demonstrate that aggregated EVs function as a controllable, highly effective grid resource, achieving high PJM Performance Scores (80–90%). Additionally, an optimized, market-aware bidding strategy was identified as key to profitability. The platform was shown to provide drivers with an average charging discount of nearly 50%. The algorithm was further validated in the lab using production EVs and charging stations to compare simulation results with real-world performance.

Manne, Nithin↗

DOE OSTI2023

Expanded verification and validation studies of hypersonic aerodynamics with multiple physics-fidelity models

Hypersonic aerothermodynamics is an important domain of modern multiphysics simulation. The Multi-Fidelity Toolkit is a simulation tool being developed at Sandia National Laboratories to predict aerodynamic properties for compressible flows from a range of physics fidelities and computational speeds. These models include the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations, the Euler equations with momentum-energy integral technique (MEIT), and modified Newtonian aerodynamics with flat-plate boundary layer (MNA+FPBL) equations, and they can be invoked independently or coupled with hierarchical Kriging to interpolate between high-fidelity simulations using lower-fidelity data. However, as with any new simulation capability, verification and validation are necessary to gather credibility evidence. This work describes formal code- and solution-verification activities, as well as model validation with uncertainty considerations. Code verification activities on the MNA+FPBL model build on previous work by focusing on the viscous portion of the model. Viscous quantities of interest are compared against those from an analytical solution for flat-plate, inclined-plate, and cone geometries. The code verification methodology for the MEIT model is also presented. Test setup and results of code verification tests on the laminar and turbulent models within MEIT are shown. Solution-verification activities include grid-refinement studies on simulations that model the HIFiRE-1 wind tunnel experiments. These experiments are used for validation of all model fidelities. A thorough validation comparison with prediction error and uncertainty is also presented. Three additional HIFiRE-1 experimental runs are simulated in this study, and the solution verification and validation work examines the effects of the associated parameter changes on model performance. Finally, a study is presented that compares the computational costs and fidelities from each of the different models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Shear-free, inhomogeneous turbulence in a stably stratified fluid

High-resolution large eddy simulations are conducted of locally forced, shear-free turbulence in the presence of an initially sharp density interface. The simulations are reminiscent of oscillating grid turbulence experiments used to isolate the effect of turbulent diffusion and entrainment from background shear. By simulating such a flow we avoid common challenges of the experiments such as secondary-flow contamination due to sidewall effects and the inevitable interaction of the stratifying agent and forcing region. To address the latter concern, we add a heating term (potential energy sink) to the governing equations in the forcing layer, thereby preventing a heat flux through the source region. This modification sets up a continuous stratification in the mixed layer that is often assumed to be negligible in experiments. Despite this difference, we are able to make meaningful comparisons in terms of the overall entrainment rate, which varies as a power law with a turbulent Richardson number. Two exponents, −2 and −1, are measured depending on the definition of the Richardson number and entrainment rate used. The definition leading to −1 is consistent with most experiments, and we argue it is the superior choice if one is able to measure the relevant quantities. We also verify the self-similar scaling of turbulence velocity and length scales in the homogeneous fluid and propose ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ scalings for the stratified cases based on a local Froude number. The detailed scaling results are useful for turbulence model validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Root Cause Analysis of AC Overcurrent in July 2020 San Fernando Disturbance

On July 7 2020, approximately 1,000 MW reduction in solar photovoltaic (PV) output was experienced by the bulk power system in Southern California after a three-phase fault. Disturbance analysis indicates that instantaneous AC current caused inverter tripping. The projection of the root cause of AC overcurrent from the NERC report is that inverter current control is not tight. This letter provides a quantitative analysis on ac overcurrent and addresses the following questions: (i) what type of current controls may lead to ac overcurrent; and (ii) how controller parameters and grid strength influence ac overcurrent. Here, the letter provides frequency-domain analysis and time-domain simulation results of a grid-integrated inverter to illustrate the effect of control parameters and grid strength on ac overcurrent.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Baseline for Global Weather and Climate Simulations at 1 km Resolution

In an attempt to advance the understanding of the Earth's weather and climate by representing deep convection explicitly, we present a global, four-month simulation (November 2018 to February 2019) with ECMWF's hydrostatic Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at an average grid spacing of 1.4 km. The impact of explicitly simulating deep convection on the atmospheric circulation and its variability is assessed by comparing the 1.4 km simulation to the equivalent well-tested and calibrated global simulations at 9 km grid spacing with and without parametrized deep convection. The explicit simulation of deep convection at 1.4 km results in a realistic large-scale circulation, better representation of convective storm activity, and stronger convective gravity wave activity when compared to the 9 km simulation with parametrized deep convection. Comparison of the 1.4 km simulation to the 9 km simulation without parametrized deep convection shows that switching off deep convection parametrization at a too coarse resolution (i.e., 9 km) generates too strong convective gravity waves. Based on the limited statistics available, improvements to the Madden-Julian Oscillation or tropical precipitation are not observed at 1.4 km, suggesting that other Earth system model components and/or their interaction are important for an accurate representation of these processes and may well need adjusting at deep convection resolving resolutions. Overall, the good agreement of the 1.4 km simulation with the 9 km simulation with parametrized deep convection is remarkable, despite one of the most fundamental parametrizations being turned off at 1.4 km resolution and despite no adjustments being made to the remaining parametrizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptation of virtual synchronous generators to dynamic conditions in power grids

Virtual synchronous generators (VSGs) are widely adopted as grid-forming controls for inverter-based resources. However, when grid conditions vary significantly as characterized by changes in short-circuit ratio (SCR) and the reactance-to-resistance (X/R) ratio, fixed-gain designs and the commonly used P–Q decoupling assumption can become inaccurate. Such conditions can degrade transient power performance, leading to oscillations, prolonged settling, and overshoot, particularly in stiff-grid operating points. This paper quantifies how grid strength and impedance-dependent coupling affect the active–reactive power dynamics of a conventional VSG over a broad range of SCR and X/R values. An adaptive VSG tuning framework is then developed by combining (i) a coupling-explicit, impedance-parameterized state-space model to enable systematic controller synthesis, (ii) a full-state-feedback law designed via pole placement to meet prescribed damping and settling-time specifications, and (iii) a physics-informed neural network (PINN)–based online grid-impedance estimator that updates controller gains in real time as grid conditions vary. Offline simulations in MATLAB/Simulink and real-time validation on an OPAL-RT platform show that the proposed method preserves consistent damping and settling behavior with reduced overshoot across wide SCR and X/R ranges, compared with fixed-gain VSG baselines.

Adaptive control↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Parallel Computing Infrastructure for Building Energy Simulation

In order to study grid-interactive efficient buildings, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL) needs an infrastructure for urban-scale building energy modeling. Such an infrastructure should be fast, scalable, and easy-to-use. Given a set of data from the Energy Information Administration’s Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) and tool to translate survey data into simulation inputs, this project aimed to conduct the simulation of the entire dataset in parallel. Before running the simulations, the necessary software was bundled into a container for use on the PNNL supercomputing network. Then, the parallel simulation workflow was designed using GNU Make, a file creation software, and submitted to a supercomputing partition which could run hundreds of simulations simultaneously. The EnergyPlus simulations output hourly electric meter data for each CBECS sample, which represents the electricity consumption of similar commercial buildings across the United States. Analyzing and visualizing the meter data is important to the future of the work, and this project wrote code to make common analysis methods simple, fast, and accessible. Moving forwards, the model will need to be expanded to include data from other sources and its accuracy will need to be improved and eventually validated.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Blockchain Based Co-Simulation Framework for Integrating DERs to Wholesale Electricity Markets

As the number of distributed energy resources (DERs) continue to increase across energy-delivery systems, there remains a need for integrating their capabilities into traditional grid operations. In this paper, a blockchain-based solution is proposed to facilitate FERC's Order No. 2222 implementations. The presented use-case enables small-scale DERs to participate in wholesale market operations through DER aggregators, while also enabling local distribution system operators to enforce distribution system constraints in a secure and traceable manner. The presented use case is built around the Unified Testing Platform (UTP) being developed as a part of the Blockchain for Optimized Security and Energy Management (BLOSEM) project. This is a multi-lab effort intended to simplify the deployment of blockchain-powered grid solutions by enabling the integration of simulation tools, and blockchain technologies through the use of system-agnostic interfaces that provide a modular, interoperable, and reusable connectivity layer.

blockchain interoperability↗

DOE OSTI2024

An integrated transportation-power system model for a decarbonizing world

Rising demand for electricity from electric vehicles (EVs) will require new paradigms to guarantee reliable and low-cost electricity. This study couples an agent-based travel demand simulator and an electricity grid model to assess the economic costs of supplying power to meet EVs' added demand across the Chicago region. Results suggest that shifting from personal EVs to a fleet of shared, fully-automated all-electric vehicles (SAEVs) could lower per-mile emissions, congestion, and embodied vehicle and charging infrastructure emissions. Further, the results should compel policymakers to shift the cost of providing power onto commercial customers, like electric ride-hail fleets, through price-indexed electricity prices, which can shift charging to off-peak periods or away from resource-scarce hours.

Integrated modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

OpenDSS-wrapper (Distribution System Co-simulator with Distributed Energy Resource Controls)

Electric grid transformation with the proliferation of distributed energy resources (DER), such as solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, advanced energy storage technologies, and electric vehicles, and the growing use of communication technologies in both transmission and distribution systems are increasing the need to capture the interactions among these systems. Advanced modeling, control, and simulation tools that can perform co-simulation of electric power systems with other domains become indispensable to accurately model these interactions. To address this need, we have developed a codebase that integrates an electric power distribution system simulator, DER models, and DER controls. The codebase is based on OpenDSS, a distribution system simulator, and an existing open source co-simulation framework called HELICS. The contribution and uniqueness of the proposed codebase is that it tailors the generic HELICS framework specifically for distribution grid-related applications. The codebase includes an OpenDSS wrapper that controls the simulation, implements advanced DER controls, and extracts power flows, voltages, and other power system element information from the the distribution network modeled in OpenDSS. Sample HELICS federates, including a federate for OpenDSS, are provided that can communicate messages through the HELICS interface. Sample federates can be modified and additional HELICS federates can be added by the user depending on their use case requirements. SEE ALSO: https://github.com/NREL/dss-cosim

Blonsky, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatial Impacts of Electric Vehicle Charging on Power Grid Stability: A Downtown Atlanta Case Study

The rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) charging demand poses a potential risk to power grid stability, particularly as the spatial distribution of this demand remains underexplored. Existing research often focuses on technical optimization models while overlooking the geographic and human dynamics that affect energy consumption. This study addresses this gap by incorporating mobility data to estimate both building energy use and EV charging demand while also considering geographic factors for a better understanding of grid load. Using agent-based simulations and the Open-Source Distribution System Simulator, the study evaluates the effect of various EV penetration scenarios on grid voltage and unbalance. The results show that, although voltage remains within acceptable limits at lower EV penetration rates, significant voltage drop and unbalance occur as EV penetration exceeds 40%, particularly in residential areas with high charging demand. This study offers a framework for integrating spatial analysis and mobility data in power network simulations, providing insights for future EV infrastructure planning.

Pan, Melrose [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031627448X)↗