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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Resolving the fast ion distribution from imaging neutral particle analyzer measurements

A recently developed imaging neutral particle analyzer (INPA) on the DIII-D tokamak (Du 2018 Nucl. Fusion 58 082006) enables fast ion velocity-space tomography of high fidelity at the interrogated phase space. To accomplish this, the spatial and energy depending fast ( E < 80 keV) neutral flux towards the INPA stripping foils is calculated with FIDASIM and a newly developed code INPASIM simulates the INPA instrumental response to this neutral flux. Included in INPASIM is the neutral-foil interaction, the Larmor orbit tracing between the foil and the phosphor, the phosphor response to the incident ion flux as well as camera focusing. Benefiting from heavy, localized velocity-space weights and excellent signal to noise, computed tomography using the Ridge regression method is able to successfully reconstruct fine-scale velocity-space structures produced by multiple neutral beams separated by as small as ~3 keV in tests. Applying the inversion method to a sawtooth crash event reveals a significant profile flattening of confined passing particles across q = 1 flux surface, as well as a redistribution of fast ions into the trapped orbits at the plasma edge close to the last closed flux surface.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Multitime Hamilton–Jacobi PDEs for Certain Scientific Machine Learning Problems

Hamilton-Jacobi partial differential equations (HJ PDEs) have deep connections with a wide range of fields, including optimal control, differential games, and imaging sciences. By considering the time variable to be a higher dimensional quantity, HJ PDEs can be extended to the multi-time case. In this paper, we establish a novel theoretical connection between specific optimization problems arising in machine learning and the multi-time Hopf formula, which corresponds to a representation of the solution to certain multi-time HJ PDEs. Through this connection, we increase the interpretability of the training process of certain machine learning applications by showing that when we solve these learning problems, we also solve a multi-time HJ PDE and, by extension, its corresponding optimal control problem. As a first exploration of this connection, we develop the relation between the regularized linear regression problem and the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). We then leverage our theoretical connection to adapt standard LQR solvers (namely, those based on the Riccati ordinary differential equations) to design new training approaches for machine learning. Lastly, we provide some numerical examples that demonstrate the versatility and possible computational advantages of our Riccati-based approach in the context of continual learning, post-training calibration, transfer learning, and sparse dynamics identification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessment of OMI Near-UV Aerosol Optical Depth over Land

This is the first comprehensive assessment of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) product retrieved from the near-UV observations by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard the Aura satellite. The OMI-retrieved AOD by the ultraviolet (UV) aerosol algorithm (OMAERUV version 1.4.2) was evaluated using collocated Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) level 2.0 direct Sun AOD measurements over 8 years (2005-2012). A time series analysis of collocated satellite and ground-based AOD observations over 8 years shows no discernible drift in OMI's calibration. A rigorous validation analysis over 4 years (2005-2008) was carried out at 44 globally distributed AERONET land sites. The chosen locations are representative of major aerosol types such as smoke from biomass burning or wildfires, desert mineral dust, and urban/industrial pollutants. Correlation coefficient (p) values of 0.75 or better were obtained at 50 percent of the sites with about 33 percent of the sites in the analysis reporting regression line slope values larger than 0.70 but always less than unity. The combined AERONET-OMAERUV analysis of the 44 sites yielded a p of 0.81, slope of 0.79, Y intercept of 0.10, and 65 percent OMAERUV AOD falling within the expected uncertainty range (largest of 30 percent or 0.1) at 440 nanometers. The most accurate OMAERUV retrievals are reported over northern Africa locations where the predominant aerosol type is desert dust and cloud presence is less frequent. Reliable retrievals were documented at many sites characterized by urban-type aerosols with low to moderate AOD values, concentrated in the boundary layer. These results confirm that the near-ultraviolet observations are sensitive to the entire aerosol column. A simultaneous comparison of OMAERUV, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue, and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) AOD retrievals to AERONET measurements was also carried out to evaluate the OMAERUV accuracy in relation to those of the standard aerosol satellite products. The outcome of the comparison indicates that OMAERUV, MODIS Deep Blue, and MISR retrieval accuracies in arid and semiarid environments are statistically comparable.

aerosol optical depth↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Learning for Pion Identification and Energy Calibration with the ATLAS Detector

Separating charged and neutral pions as well as calibrating the pion energy response is a core component of reconstruction in the ATLAS calorimeter. This note presents an investigation of deep learning techniques for these tasks, representing the signal in the ATLAS calorimeter layers as pixelated images. Deep learning approaches outperform the classification applied in the baseline local hadronic calibration and are able to improve the energy resolution for a wide range in particle momenta, especially for low energy pions. This work demonstrates the potential of deep-learning-based low-level hadronic calibrations to significantly improve the quality of particle reconstruction in the ATLAS calorimeter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Modeling Approach to Global Land Surface Monitoring with Low Resolution Satellite Imaging

The effects of changing land use/land cover on global climate and ecosystems due to greenhouse gas emissions and changing energy and nutrient exchange rates are being addressed by federal programs such as NASA's Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) and by international efforts such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP). The quantification of these effects depends on accurate estimates of the global extent of critical land cover types such as fire scars in tropical savannas and ponds in Arctic tundra. To address the requirement for accurate areal estimates, methods for producing regional to global maps with satellite imagery are being developed. The only practical way to produce maps over large regions of the globe is with data of coarse spatial resolution, such as Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) weather satellite imagery at 1.1 km resolution or European Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) radar imagery at 100 m resolution. The accuracy of pixel counts as areal estimates is in doubt, especially for highly fragmented cover types such as fire scars and ponds. Efforts to improve areal estimates from coarse resolution maps have involved regression of apparent area from coarse data versus that from fine resolution in sample areas, but it has proven difficult to acquire sufficient fine scale data to develop the regression. A method for computing accurate estimates from coarse resolution maps using little or no fine data is therefore needed.

Hlavka, Christine A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Automated Probabilistic Asteroid Prediscovery Pipeline

We present an automated and probabilistic method to make prediscovery detections of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in archival survey images, with the goal of reducing orbital uncertainty immediately after discovery. We refit the Minor Planet Center's astrometry and propagate the full six-parameter covariance to survey epochs to define search regions. We build low-threshold source catalogs for viable images and evaluate every detected source in a search region as a candidate prediscovery. We eliminate false positives by refitting a new orbit to each candidate and probabilistically linking detections across images using a likelihood ratio. Applied to the Zwicky Transient Facility's (ZTF) imaging, we identify approximately 3000 recently discovered NEAs with prediscovery potential, including a doubling of the observational arc for about 500. We use archival ZTF imaging to make prediscovery detections of the potentially hazardous asteroid 2021 DG1, extending its arc by 2.5 yr and reducing future apparition sky plane uncertainty from many degrees to arcseconds. We also recover 2025 FU24 nearly 7 yr before its first known observation, when its sky plane uncertainty covers hundreds of square degrees across thousands of ZTF images. The method is survey agnostic and scalable, enabling rapid orbit refinement for new discoveries from Rubin, NEO Surveyor, and NEOMIR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Consistency Between Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence and Gross Primary Production of Vegetation in North America

Accurate estimation of the gross primary production (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is vital for a better understanding of the spatial-temporal patterns of the global carbon cycle. In this study,we estimate GPP in North America (NA) using the satellite-based Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) images at 8-day temporal and 500 meter spatial resolutions, and NCEP-NARR (National Center for Environmental Prediction-North America Regional Reanalysis) climate data. The simulated GPP (GPP (sub VPM)) agrees well with the flux tower derived GPP (GPPEC) at 39 AmeriFlux sites (155 site-years). The GPP (sub VPM) in 2010 is spatially aggregated to 0.5 by 0.5-degree grid cells and then compared with sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data from Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2), which is directly related to vegetation photosynthesis. Spatial distribution and seasonal dynamics of GPP (sub VPM) and GOME-2 SIF show good consistency. At the biome scale, GPP (sub VPM) and SIF shows strong linear relationships (R (sup 2) is greater than 0.95) and small variations in regression slopes ((4.60-5.55 grams Carbon per square meter per day) divided by (milliwatts per square meter per nanometer per square radian)). The total annual GPP (sub VPM) in NA in 2010 is approximately 13.53 petagrams Carbon per year, which accounts for approximately 11.0 percent of the global terrestrial GPP and is within the range of annual GPP estimates from six other process-based and data-driven models (11.35-22.23 petagrams Carbon per year). Among the seven models, some models did not capture the spatial pattern of GOME-2 SIF data at annual scale, especially in Midwest cropland region. The results from this study demonstrate the reliable performance of VPM at the continental scale, and the potential of SIF data being used as a benchmark to compare with GPP models.

photosynthesis model↗
NASA NTRS2018

Calibration of the DSCOVR EPIC Visible and NIR Channels using MODIS Terra and Aqua Data and EPIC Lunar Observations

The unique position of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) at the Lagrange 1 point makes an important addition to the data from currently operating low Earth orbit observing instruments. EPIC instrument does not have an onboard calibration facility. One approach to its calibration is to compare EPIC observations to the measurements from polar-orbiting radiometers. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a natural choice for such comparison due to its well-established calibration record and wide use in remote sensing. We use MODIS Aqua and Terra L1B 1km reflectances to infer calibration coefficients for four EPIC visible and NIR channels: 443, 551, 680 and 780 nm. MODIS and EPIC measurements made between June 2015 and 2016 are employed for comparison. We first identify favorable MODIS pixels with scattering angle matching temporarily collocated EPIC observations. Each EPIC pixel is then spatially collocated to a subset of the favorable MODIS pixels within 25 km radius. Standard deviation of the selected MODIS pixels as well as of the adjacent EPIC pixels is used to find the most homogeneous scenes. These scenes are then used to determine calibration coefficients using a linear regression between EPIC counts/sec and reflectances in the close MODIS spectral channels. We present thus inferred EPIC calibration coefficients and discuss sources of uncertainties. The lunar EPIC observations are used to calibrate EPIC O2 absorbing channels (688 and 764 nm), assuming that there is a small difference between moon reflectances separated by approx.10 nm in wavelength provided the calibration factors of the red (680 nm) and near-IR (780 nm) are known from comparison between EPIC and MODIS.

Geogdzhayev, Igor V.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Unique Observational Constraints on the Seasonal and Longitudinal Variability of the Earth’s Planetary Albedo and Cloud Distribution Inferred From EPIC Measurements

Thorough comparison to observations is key to developing a credible climate model forecasting capability. Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation provide a unique observational perspective that permits a more reliable model/data comparison than is possible with the otherwise available satellite data. The uniqueness is in the DSCOVR satellite’s viewing geometry, which enables continuous viewing of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere from its Lissajous orbit around the Lagrangian L1 point. The key instrument is the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), which views the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere with 1024-by-1024-pixel imagery in 10 narrow spectral bands from 317 to 780 nm, acquiring up to 22 high spatial resolution images per day. The additional feature is that the frequency of EPIC image acquisition is nearly identical to that of the climate GCM data generation scheme where climate data for the entire globe are ‘instantaneously’ calculated at 1-h radiation time-step intervals. Implementation of the SHS (Sunlit Hemisphere Sampling) EPIC-view geometry for the in-line GCM output data sampling establishes a precise self-consistency in the space-time data sampling between EPIC observational and GCM output data generation and sampling. The remaining problem is that the GCM generated data are radiative fluxes, while the EPIC measurements are backscatter-dependent radiances. Radiance to flux conversion is a complex problem with no simple way to convert GCM radiative fluxes into spectral radiances. The more expedient approach is to convert the EPIC spectral radiances into broadband radiances by MODIS/CERES-based regression relationships and then into solar radiative fluxes using the CERES angular distribution models. Averaging over the sunlit hemisphere suppresses the meteorological weather noise, but preserves the intra-seasonal larger scale variability. Longitudinal slicing by the Earth’s rotation permits a self-consistent model/data comparison of the longitudinal model/data differences in the variability of the reflected solar radiation. Ancillary EPIC Composite data provide additional cloud property information for climate model diagnostics. Comparison of EPIC-derived seasonal and longitudinal variability of the Earth’s planetary albedo with the GISS ModelE2 results shows systematic overestimate of cloud reflectivity over the Pacific Ocean with corresponding underestimates over continental land areas.

DSCOVR↗
DOE OSTI2023

Divergent urbanization-induced impacts on global surface urban heat island trends since 1980s

Urbanization experiences different speeds and forms under diverse development stages across the globe. However, urbanization-induced impacts on long-term surface urban heat island intensity (I s ) trends across global cities and the regulators of such impacts remain understudied. Here we estimate interannual trends in daytime I s (i.e., urban-rural differences in surface temperatures) across 511 major cities for 1985 –2020 using annual averages calculated by using reconstructed land surface temperature data derived from more than >250,000 Landsat thermal images. Our study reveals that the global mean I s growth rate is 0.156 °C/decade. We further examine I s change associated with per 1% impervious land growth (denoted as ß) in each city throughout the research period and during different periods. The global mean ß is 0.018 ± 0.025 °C/% (mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the whole period, with greater values in humid than in arid climates; and the ß may change during different periods, e.g., it has more than tripled when urban impervious land exceeds 30%, indicating the spatiotemporally divergent impacts of urbanization on Is trends across global cities. The spatial variations in ß across global cities are well correlated with rural vegetation abundance and precipitation but not with urban population. Among these three factors, rural vegetation abundance possesses the greatest standardized regression coefficient of partial least-squares model, signifying the critical role of biome background in regulating ß. Furthermore, the finding implies that future urbanization over densely vegetated regions should be more carefully and strategically planned due to the greater urbanization-induced surface warming effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reducing uncertainties in satellite estimates of aerosol–cloud interactions over the subtropical ocean by integrating vertically resolved aerosol observations

Satellite quantification of aerosol effects on clouds relies on aerosol optical depth (AOD) as a proxy for aerosol concentration or cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). However, the lack of error characterization of satellite-based results hampers their use for the evaluation and improvement of global climate models. We show that the use of AOD for assessing aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) is inadequate over vast oceanic areas in the subtropics. Instead, we postulate that a more physical approach that consists of matching vertically resolved aerosol data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite at the cloud-layer height with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua cloud retrievals reduces uncertainties in satellite-based ACI estimates. Combined aerosol extinction coefficients (σ) below cloud top (σBC) from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and cloud droplet number concentrations (N d ) from MODIS Aqua yield high correlations across a broad range of σBC values, with σBC quartile correlations ≥0.78. In contrast, CALIOP-based AOD yields correlations with MODIS Nd of 0.54–0.62 for the two lower AOD quartiles. Moreover, σBC explains 41% of the spatial variance in MODIS N d , whereas AOD only explains 17%, primarily caused by the lack of spatial covariability in the eastern Pacific. Compared with σBC, near-surface σ weakly correlates in space with MODIS N d , accounting for a 16% variance. It is concluded that the linear regression calculated from ln(N d )–ln(σBC) (the standard method for quantifying ACIs) is more physically meaningful than that derived from the Nd–AOD pair.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Correlation of Electron Micrographs and ToF-SIMS for the Analysis of Organic Biomarkers in Mudstone

The spatial distribution of organics in geological samples can be used to determine when and how these organics were incorporated into the host rock. Mass spectrometry (MS) imaging can rapidly collect a large amount of data, but ions produced are mixed without discrimination, resulting in complex mass spectra that can be difficult to interpret. Here, we apply unsupervised and supervised machine learning (ML) to help interpret spectra from time-of-flight-secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) of an organic-carbon-rich mudstone of the Middle Jurassic of England (UK). It was previously shown that the presence of sterane molecular biomarkers in this sample can be detected via ToF-SIMS (Pasterski, M. J. et al., Astrobiology 2023, 23, 936). We use unsupervised ML on scanning electron microscopy–electron dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) measurements to define compositional categories based on differences in elemental abundances. We then test the ability of four ML algorithms─k-nearest neighbors (KNN), recursive partitioning and regressive trees (RPART), eXtreme gradient boost (XGBoost), and random forest (RF)─to classify the ToF-SIM spectra using (1) the categories assigned via SEM-EDS, (2) organic and inorganic labels assigned via SEM-EDS, and (3) the presence or absence of detectable steranes in ToF-SIMS spectra. In terms of predictive accuracy and balanced accuracy, KNN was the best performing model and RPART the worst. The feature importance, or the specific features of the ToF-SIM spectra used by the models to make classifications, cannot be determined for KNN, preventing posthoc model interpretation. Nevertheless, the feature importance extracted from the other models was useful for interpreting spectra. In conclusion, we determined that some of the organic ions used to classify biomarker containing spectra may be fragment ions derived from kerogen which is abundant in this mudstone sample.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1992

Discussion of band selection and methodologies for the estimation of precipitable water vapour from AVIRIS data

An Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data set acquired over Canal Flats, B.C., on 14 Aug. 1990, was used for the purpose of developing methodologies for surface reflectance retrieval using the 5S atmospheric code. A scene of Rogers Dry Lake, California (23 Jul. 1990), acquired within three weeks of the Canal Flats scene, was used as a potential reference for radiometric calibration purposes and for comparison with other studies using primarily LOWTRAN7. Previous attempts at surface reflectance retrieval indicated that reflectance values in the gaseous absorption bands had the poorest accuracy. Modifications to 5S to use 1 nm step size, in order to make fuller use of the 20 cm(sup -1) resolution of the gaseous absorption data, resulted in some improvement in the accuracy of the retrieved surface reflectance. Estimates of precipitable water vapor using non-linear least squares regression and simple ratioing techniques such as the CIBR (Continuum Interpolated Band Ratio) technique or the narrow/wide technique, which relate ratios of combinations of bands to precipitable water vapor through calibration curves, were found to vary widely. The estimates depended on the bands used for the estimation; none provided entirely satisfactory surface reflectance curves.

Schanzer, Dena↗
NASA NTRS2014

Improvement of Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieval over Hong Kong from a Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Using Critical Reflectance with Background Optical Depth Correction

Despite continuous efforts to retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD) using a conventional 5-channelmeteorological imager in geostationary orbit, the accuracy in urban areas has been poorer than other areas primarily due to complex urban surface properties and mixed aerosol types from different emission sources. The two largest error sources in aerosol retrieval have been aerosol type selection and surface reflectance. In selecting the aerosol type from a single visible channel, the season-dependent aerosol optical properties were adopted from longterm measurements of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun-photometers. With the aerosol optical properties obtained fromthe AERONET inversion data, look-up tableswere calculated by using a radiative transfer code: the Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S). Surface reflectance was estimated using the clear sky composite method, awidely used technique for geostationary retrievals. Over East Asia, the AOD retrieved from the Meteorological Imager showed good agreement, although the values were affected by cloud contamination errors. However, the conventional retrieval of the AOD over Hong Kong was largely underestimated due to the lack of information on the aerosol type and surface properties. To detect spatial and temporal variation of aerosol type over the area, the critical reflectance method, a technique to retrieve single scattering albedo (SSA), was applied. Additionally, the background aerosol effect was corrected to improve the accuracy of the surface reflectance over Hong Kong. The AOD retrieved froma modified algorithmwas compared to the collocated data measured by AERONET in Hong Kong. The comparison showed that the new aerosol type selection using the critical reflectance and the corrected surface reflectance significantly improved the accuracy of AODs in Hong Kong areas,with a correlation coefficient increase from0.65 to 0.76 and a regression line change from τMI [basic algorithm] = 0.41τAERONET + 0.16 to τMI [new algorithm] = 0.70τAERONET + 0.01.

aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Centralized AI Lakehouse Framework for Brain Tumor MRI Classification and Segmentation, University KPI Forecasting, and Water Potability Prediction

In many university and healthcare projects, models are built for very different data types such as tables, institutional time series, and medical images, but they are deployed as separate applications. In this work, that separation made testing and maintenance difficult because each module had its own pipeline and runtime requirements. This paper presents an integrated AI lakehouse-style implementation that runs three model pipelines inside one containerized backend. For medical imaging, we used MRI datasets from IEEE DataPort: a four-class classification set with 7012 images (5708 train/1304 test) and a segmentation set with 3063 image–mask pairs. The classification model (ResNet50 transfer learning) is evaluated using a proper train–validation–test protocol across multiple splits (80/10/10, 70/10/20, 60/10/30, and 10/30/60), achieving a test accuracy of 99.00% under the standard 80/10/10 split. Additionally, a patient-level evaluation is conducted using an external glioma dataset to provide a more realistic assessment without data leakage. The segmentation model (DeepLabV3-ResNet50) achieved 83.09% validation mIoU and 88.79% Dice score. For university KPI forecasting, we used annual IPEDS and NSF HERD data from 2010 to 2023 for three universities (BSU, EOU, and UAB). To examine the effect of preprocessing on forecasting performance, two case studies are conducted. In the first case, linear interpolation is applied to generate semester-level data. In the second case, the original annual data is used directly without interpolation. Random Forest regression and ARIMA models are evaluated using MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and R 2 . The results showed that interpolation improved apparent forecasting performance due to smoothing, while evaluation on the original annual data provided a more realistic assessment of model behavior. To further validate the framework on a larger dataset, an additional case study is conducted using a student dropout dataset. For water potability, we trained and compared multiple tabular classifiers on a large dataset (1,048,575 samples). A Random Forest model (100 trees, max depth 10) achieved 85.86% test accuracy and high recall for unsafe samples (0.8447). All modules are served via FastAPI and deployed together using Docker, with workflow automation routing requests to the correct endpoint. System-level benchmarking indicates that the backend maintains stable throughput and latency under concurrent requests.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field evaluation of semi‐automated moisture estimation from geophysics using machine learning

Geophysical methods can provide three-dimensional (3D), spatially continuous estimates of soil moisture. However, point-to-point comparisons of geophysical properties to measure soil moisture data are frequently unsatisfactory, resulting in geophysics being used for qualitative purposes only. This is because (1) geophysics requires models that relate geophysical signals to soil moisture, (2) geophysical methods have potential uncertainties resulting from smoothing and artifacts introduced from processing and inversion, and (3) results from multiple geophysical methods are not easily combined within a single soil moisture estimation framework. To investigate these potential limitations, an irrigation experiment was performed wherein soil moisture was monitored through time, and several surface geophysical datasets indirectly sensitive to soil moisture were collected before and after irrigation: ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and frequency domain electromagnetics (FDEM). Data were exported in both raw and processed form, and then snapped to a common 3D grid to facilitate moisture prediction by standard calibration techniques, multivariate regression, and machine learning. A combination of inverted ERT data, raw FDEM, and inverted FDEM data was most informative for predicting soil moisture using a random regression forest model (one-thousand 60/40 training/test cross-validation folds produced root mean squared errors ranging from 0.025–0.046 cm 3 /cm 3 ). This cross-validated model was further supported by a separate evaluation using a test set from a physically separate portion of the study area. Machine learning was conducive to a semi-automated model-selection process that could be used for other sites and datasets to locally improve accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Monitoring Interannual Variation in Global Crop Yield Using Long-Term AVHRR and MODIS Observations

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been extensively applied for crop yield prediction because of their daily temporal resolution and a global coverage. This study investigated global crop yield using daily two band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2013) observations at a spatial resolution of 0.05deg (approx.5 km). Specifically, EVI2 temporal trajectory of crop growth was simulated using a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM) for individual pixels, which was used to detect crop phenological metrics. The derived crop phenology was then applied to calculate crop greenness defined as EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration during annual crop growing seasons, which was further aggregated for croplands in each country, respectively. The interannual variations in EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration were combined to correlate to the variation in cereal yield from 1982-2012 for individual countries using a stepwise regression model, respectively. The results show that the confidence level of the established regression models was higher than 90% (P value < 0.1) in most countries in the northern hemisphere although it was relatively poor in the southern hemisphere (mainly in Africa). The error in the yield predication was relatively smaller in America, Europe and East Asia than that in Africa. In the 10 countries with largest cereal production across the world, the prediction error was less than 9% during past three decades. This suggests that crop phenology-controlled greenness from coarse resolution satellite data has the capability of predicting national crop yield across the world, which could provide timely and reliable crop information for global agricultural trade and policymakers.

Crop phenology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temporal covariance structure of multi-spectral phenotypes and their predictive ability for end-of-season traits in maize

Vegetation indices (VIs) derived from multi-spectral imaging (MSI) platforms can be used to study properties of crop canopy, providing non-destructive phenotypes that could be used to better understand growth curves throughout the growing season. To investigate the amount of variation present in several VIs and their relationship with important end-of-season traits, genetic and residual (co)variances for VIs, grain yield and moisture were estimated using data collected from maize hybrid trials. The VIs considered were Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green NDVI, Red Edge NDVI, Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index and simple Ratio of Near Infrared to Red (Red) reflectance. Genetic correlations of VIs with grain yield and moisture were used to fit multi-trait models for prediction of end-of-season traits and evaluated using within site/year cross-validation. To explore alternatives to fitting multiple phenotypes from MSI, random regression models with linear splines were fit using data collected in 2016 and 2017. Heritability estimates ranging from (0.10 to 0.82) were observed, indicating that there exists considerable amount of genetic variation in these VIs. Furthermore, strong genetic and residual correlations of the VIs, NDVI and NDRE, with grain yield and moisture were found. Considerable increases in prediction accuracy were observed from the multi-trait model when using NDVI and NDRE as a secondary trait. Finally, random regression with a linear spline function shows potential to be used as an alternative to mixed models to fit VIs from multiple time points.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗