Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “individual differences”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

Epstein-Barr virus DNA loads in adult human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy

Patients with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection are at high risk of developing Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-associated lymphoma. However, little is known of the EBV DNA loads in patients receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Using a real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay, we demonstrated that significantly more HIV-1-infected patients receiving HAART than HIV-1-uninfected volunteers had detectable EBV DNA in blood (57 [81%] of 70 vs. 11 [16%] of 68 patients; P=.001) and saliva (55 [79%] of 68 vs. 37 [54%] of 68 patients; P=.002). The mean EBV loads in blood and saliva samples were also higher in HIV-1-infected patients than in HIV-1-uninfected volunteers (P=.001). The frequency of EBV detection in blood was associated with lower CD4+ cell counts (P=.03) among HIV-1-infected individuals, although no differences were observed in the EBV DNA loads in blood or saliva samples in the HIV-1-infected group. Additional studies are needed to determine whether EBV-specific CD4+ and CD8+ cells play a role in the pathogenesis of EBV in HIV-1-infected patients receiving HAART.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Morphogenesis by symbiogenesis

Here we review cases where initiation of morphogenesis, including the differentiation of specialized cells and tissues, has clearly evolved due to cyclical symbiont integration. For reasons of space, our examples are drawn chiefly from the plant, fungal and bacterial kingdoms. Partners live in symbioses and show unique morphological specializations that result when they directly and cyclically interact. We include here brief citations to relevant literature where plant, bacterial or fungal partners alternate independent with entirely integrated living. The independent, or at least physically unassociated stages, are correlated with the appearance of distinctive morphologies that can be traced to the simultaneous presence and strong interaction of the plant with individuals that represent different taxa.

Review↗

Source Term Model for Steady Micro Jets in a Navier-Stokes Computer Code

A source term model for steady micro jets was implemented into a non-proprietary Navier-Stokes computer code, OVERFLOW. The source term models the mass flow and momentum created by a steady blowing micro jet. The model is obtained by adding the momentum and mass flow created by the jet to the Navier-Stokes equations. The model was tested by comparing with data from numerical simulations of a single, steady micro jet on a flat plate in two and three dimensions. The source term model predicted the velocity distribution well compared to the two-dimensional plate using a steady mass flow boundary condition, which was used to simulate a steady micro jet. The model was also compared to two three-dimensional flat plate cases using a steady mass flow boundary condition to simulate a steady micro jet. The three-dimensional comparison included a case with a grid generated to capture the circular shape of the jet and a case without a grid generated for the micro jet. The case without the jet grid mimics the application of the source term. The source term model compared well with both of the three-dimensional cases. Comparisons of velocity distribution were made before and after the jet and Mach and vorticity contours were examined. The source term model allows a researcher to quickly investigate different locations of individual or several steady micro jets. The researcher is able to conduct a preliminary investigation with minimal grid generation and computational time.

Waithe, Kenrick A.↗

B-ISBN Onboard Processing Fast Packet Switch Developed

Future satellite communications applications will require a packet-switched onboard satellite processing system to route packets at very high speeds from uplink beams to different downlink beams. The rapid emergence of point-to-multipoint services, and the important role of satellites in a national and global information infrastructure, makes the multicast function essential to a fast packet switch (FPS). NASA Lewis Research Center's Digital System Technology Branch has been studying possible architectures for high-speed onboard-processing satellite systems. As part of this research, COMSAT Laboratories developed a broadband integrated services digital network (B-ISDN) fast packet switch for Lewis that was delivered on December 1994. The fast packet switch consists of eight inputs and eight outputs that can receive and transmit data, respectively, at a rate of 155 Mbps. The switch features multiple priorities (three) and multiple-size (three) satellite virtual cells that are similar to ATM cells in length (52 bytes). In addition, the fast packet switch features a congestion-control algorithm that allows users to set different thresholds for individual destination ports, thus throttling back the traffic from the transmitting port.

Source record↗

RFID Transponders' Radio Frequency Emissions in Aircraft Communication and Navigation Radio Bands

Radiated emissions in aircraft communication and navigation bands are measured from several active radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. The individual tags are different in design and operations. They may also operate in different frequency bands. The process for measuring the emissions is discussed, and includes tag interrogation, reverberation chamber testing, and instrument settings selection. The measurement results are described and compared against aircraft emission limits. In addition, interference path loss for the cargo bays of passenger aircraft is measured. Cargo bay path loss is more appropriate for RFID tags than passenger cabin path loss. The path loss data are reported for several aircraft radio systems on a Boeing 747 and an Airbus A320.

Nguyen, Truong X.↗

RFID Transponders' RF Emissions in Aircraft Communication and Navigation Radio Bands

Radiated emission data in aircraft communication and navigation bands are presented for several active radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. The individual tags are different in design, operation and transmitting frequencies. The process for measuring the tags emissions in a reverberation chamber is discussed. Measurement issues dealing with tag interrogation, low level measurement in the presence of strong transmissions, and tags low duty factors are discussed. The results show strong emissions, far exceeding aircraft emission limits and can be of potential interference risks.

Nguyen, Truong X.↗

Mentoring SFRM: A New Approach to International Space Station Flight Controller Training

The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) of the Johnson Space Center is responsible for providing continuous operations support for the International Space Station (ISS). Operations support requires flight controllers who are skilled in team performance as well as the technical operations of the ISS. Space Flight Resource Management (SFRM), a NASA adapted variant of Crew Resource Management (CRM), is the competency model used in the MOD. ISS flight controller certification has evolved to include a balanced focus on development of SFRM and technical expertise. The latest challenge the MOD faces is how to certify an ISS flight controller (operator) to a basic level of effectiveness in 1 year. SFRM training uses a two-pronged approach to expediting operator certification: 1) imbed SFRM skills training into all operator technical training and 2) use senior flight controllers as mentors. This paper focuses on how the MOD uses senior flight controllers as mentors to train SFRM skills. Methods: A mentor works with an operator throughout the training flow. Inserted into the training flow are guided-discussion sessions and on-the-job observation opportunities focusing on specific SFRM skills, including: situational leadership, conflict management, stress management, cross-cultural awareness, self care and team care while on-console, communication, workload management, and situation awareness. The mentor and operator discuss the science and art behind the skills, cultural effects on skills applications, recognition of good and bad skills applications, recognition of how skills application changes subtly in different situations, and individual goals and techniques for improving skills. Discussion: This mentoring program provides an additional means of transferring SFRM knowledge compared to traditional CRM training programs. Our future endeavors in training SFRM skills (as well as other organization s) may benefit from adding team performance skills mentoring. This paper explains our mentoring approach and discusses its effectiveness and future applicability in promoting SFRM/CRM skills.

Huning, Therese↗

Astrometric and Photometric Analysis of the September 2008 ATV-1 Re-Entry Event

NASA utilized Image Intensified Video Cameras for ATV data acquisition from a jet flying at 12.8 km. Afterwards the video was digitized and then analyzed with a modified commercial software package, Image Systems Trackeye. Astrometric results were limited by saturation, plate scale, and imposed linear plate solution based on field reference stars. Time-dependent fragment angular trajectories, velocities, accelerations, and luminosities were derived in each video segment. It was evident that individual fragments behave differently. Photometric accuracy was insufficient to confidently assess correlations between luminosity and fragment spatial behavior (velocity, deceleration). Use of high resolution digital video cameras in future should remedy this shortcoming.

Mulrooney, Mark K.↗

Large Solar-Rejection Filter

NASA utilized Image Intensified Video Cameras for ATV data acquisition from a jet flying at 12.8 km. Afterwards the video was digitized and then analyzed with a modified commercial software package, Image Systems Trackeye. Astrometric results were limited by saturation, plate scale, and imposed linear plate solution based on field reference stars. Time-dependent fragment angular trajectories, velocities, accelerations, and luminosities were derived in each video segment. It was evident that individual fragments behave differently. Photometric accuracy was insufficient to confidently assess correlations between luminosity and fragment spatial behavior (velocity, deceleration). Use of high resolution digital video cameras in future should remedy this shortcoming. A scenically accurate description of matter interpreted as a substance made up of corpuscular constituents was established during the course of the 19th century. In this description, atoms--the building blocks of the matter--form molecules. The properties of the molecules were described by chemistry or thermodynamics depending on what characteristics of the matter were investigated. In both theories, the molecules can dissociate to atoms when the kinetic energies of the atoms exceed the strength of the chemical bonds. The number of atoms is always preserved in a closed system. This is not true, however, when the matter takes up much higher energies at relativistic scales. New particles can be produced at the expense of the kinetic energy. The number of particles is no longer preserved. There are other conserved quantities, however, these quantities, the charge, baryon number, lepton number, are associated with particles that are considered elementary today. The properties and behavior of these elementary particles is the subject of Particle Physics or High Energy Physics. Practice Page: A crewmember touching a positively charged surface was thought to be galvanically isolated from the vehicle ground analogous to a bird on a high voltage power wire. Recent analysis confirms that positive floating potentials, ionospheric currents to the EVA suit, can be hazardous. The analysis is wrong in that the ionospheric plasma itself can close the circuit. Parametric analysis of very low voltage exposures (2 to 15 volts) could cause pain and/or involuntary muscle tetani or spinal cord shock. NASA worked with the Naval Health Research Center Detachment Directed Energy Bioeffects Laboratory to examine the affects electrical hazards could have on extravehicular activity using two models. The results of the two computational models were combined to predict areas of the body in which neurons of different diameters would be excited. They predicted that physiologically active current could be conducted across the crew member causing catastrophic hazards. Future work to analyze additional current paths was proposed. The FUSE spectrum of BB Dor, observed in a high state, is modeled with an accretion disk with a very low inclination (possibly lower than 10 degrees). Assuming an average WD mass of 0.8 solar mass leads to a distance of the order of approximately 650pc, consistent with the extremely low galactic reddening in its direction, and a mass accretion rate of 10 (exp -9) solar mass a year. The spectrum presents some broad and deep silicon and sulfur absorption lines, indicating that these elements are over-abundant: silicon is 3 times solar, and sulfur is 20 times solar. The FUSE spectrum of BB Dor, observed in a high state, is modeled with an accretion disk with a very low inclination (possibly lower than 10 degrees). Assuming an average WD mass of 0.8 solar mass leads to a distance of the order of approximately 650pc, consistent with the extremely low galactic reddening in its direction, and a mass accretion rate of 10 (exp -9) solar mass a year. The spectrum presents some broad and deep silicon and sulfur absorption lines, indicating that these elements are over-abundant: silicon is times solar, and sulfur is 20 times solar. From its previously observed optical emission lines, P831-57 (WD 0334 6400 or Ret 1 in A Catalog and Atlas of Cataclysmic Variables: Living Edition) has been suspected to contain an accretion disk associated with a companion star in orbit around a subdwarf star with a temperature T is greater than 21,000K. P831-57 has therefore been classified as a nova-like. However, our present observations show it to be a DA + dMe binary. The analysis of its Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) spectrum (continuum and lines) reveal an average mass white dwarf (Log(g) approximately equals 7.8 plus or minus 0.1)with a temperature T approximately equals 37,000 plus or minus 500K, an extremely low projected rotational velocity, and a distance of about 115 plus or minus 5pc. The photosphere contains C, N, Si, and S (at about 1% of solar abundances). The dMe star is seen as a flux excess in near-infrared photometry and appears to show occasional flaring of about one magnitude as seen in the Harvard plates. There is no evidence of periodic variability in the spectroscopic or photometric data. We find no evidence of a an accretion disk, instead we find evidence of wind accretion as the stellar carbon abundance (N(C)/N(H) = 2.5 x 10 (exp -6) is about ten times larger than predicted by radiative levitation for such a gravity and temperature. The power needs and solutions for the space exploration and lunar mobility program are discussed. Long term missions in space and on the lunar surface require high energy batteries. Rechargeable batteries for mobility systems and portable utility pallet are needed for successful exploration missions. Nanomaterial usage increases the energy density of the cells apart from increasing the power density. The symptoms and threats from acute mountain sickness (AMS) are discussed. The underlying assumptions concerning spacecraft atmosphere mean there is a potential risk to astronauts. The baseline worst case scenario is about 25% based on direct ascent to 8.0 psia with 32% O2. The practical mitigation approach is a staged depressurization scheme. Due to the uncertainty about potential AMS risk the flight surgeon should prepare, focused research should proceed, and current analytical efforts should continue. This slide presentation reviews the threat astronauts face from acute mountain sickness (AMS). The incidence of AMS is highly variable and the risk to astronauts is unclear. However, the potential risk is higher than current EAAs suggest and precautions should be implemented. Due to the uncertain nature of the risk flight surgeons should prepare, and focused research should proceed. Quasiparticle tunneling can be understood at low temperatures using a non-equilibrium kinetic theory. Low-temperature tunneling can be suppressed using existing techniques: island-lead gap engineering, lead cooling with SIN junctions, and quasiparticle traps. The slide presentation reviews the science goals and mission planning for the proposed Jupiter System Observer (JSO). The spacecraft would accommodate 9 instruments making the instrument payload more capable than any previously flown to Jupiter. The would-be mission includes study programs for Jupiter's satellites, interior, magnetosphere and atmosphere. The power needs and solutions for the space exploration and lunar mobility program are discussed. Long term missions in space and on the lunar surface require high energy batteries. Rechargeable batteries for mobility systems and portable utility pallet are needed for successful exploration missions. Nanomaterial usage increases the energy density of the cells apart from increasing the power density. This slide presentation reviews the power requirements for the space exploration and the lunar surface mobility programs. It includes information about the specifications for high energy batteries and the power requirements for lunar rovers,

Roberts, William↗

Stabilized NADH as a Countermeasure for Jet Lag

Current remedies for jet lag (phototherapy, melatonin, stimulant, and sedative medications) are limited in efficacy and practicality. The efficacy of a stabilized, sublingual form of reduced nicotin amide adenine dinucleotide (NADH, ENADAlert, Menuco Corp.) as a countermeasure for jet lag was examined. Because NADH increases cellular production of ATP and facilitates dopamine synthesis, it may counteract the effects of jet lag on cognitive functioning and sleepiness. Thirty-five healthy, employed subjects participated in this double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Training and baseline testing were conducted on the West Coast before subjects flew overnight to the East Coast, where they would experience a 3-hour time difference. Upon arrival, individuals were randomly assigned to receive either 20 mg of sublingual stabilized ADH (n=18) or identical placebo tablets (n=17). All participants completed computer-administered tests (including CogScreen7) to assess changes in cognitive functioning, mood, and sleepiness in the morning and afternoon. Jet lag resulted in increased sleepiness for over half the participants and deterioration of cognitive functioning for approximately one third. The morning following the flight, subjects experienced lapses of attention in addition to disruptions in working memory, divided attention, and visual perceptual speed. Individuals who received NADH performed significantly better on 5 of 8 cognitive and psychomotor test measures (P less than or equal to 0.5) and showed a trend for better performance on the other three measures (P less than or equal to .l0). Subjects also reported less sleepiness compared with those who received placebo. No adverse effects were observed with NADH treatment. Stabilized NADH significantly reduced jet lag-induced disruptions of cognitive functioning, was easily administered, and was found to have no adverse side effects.

Kay, Gary G.↗

Risk as a Driver for Innovation

The Space Life Sciences directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) at NASA Johnson Space Center has implemented a system for managing human systems risks. These risks are defined as the health and performance risks posed to crew during and after spaceflight. Identification and evaluation of these risks has led to the identification of gaps in knowledge about the risks as well as gaps in technology needed to mitigate them. Traditional routes of closing technology gaps have, in some cases, proven to be too slow when a solution was required quickly. Therefore, certain gaps were used to drive the development of "challenges" for the scientific community. Partnering with open innovation service providers such as InnoCentive and Yet2.com, SLSD and HRP have decreased the amount of time from identification of a need to the evaluation of a solution. Although not all proposed solutions will result in a risk mitigation strategy or tool, the process has allowed faster evaluation of proposed solutions providing the researcher the ability to move to another possible solution if the first does not sufficiently address the problem. Moreover, this process engages the community outside of NASA and broadens the population from which to draw solutions. In the traditional grant funding structure, only those in the specific field will apply for the grant. However, using open innovation, solutions can come from individuals in many different fields. This can expand the general view of a field (way of thinking within a field) and the application of solutions form new fields while providing a pathway for the acquisition of novel solutions or refinements of current mitigations. Identification of the human systems risks has helped drive the development and evaluation of innovative solutions as well as engaging a broader scientific audience in working with NASA.

Davis, Jeff↗

MODIS On-orbit Calibration Uncertainty Assessment

MODIS has 20 reflective solar bands (RSB) and 16 thermal emissive bands (TEB). Compared to its heritage sensors, MODIS was developed with very stringent calibration uncertainty requirements. As a result, MODIS was designed and built with a set of on-board calibrators (OBC), which allow key sensor performance parameters and on-orbit calibration coefficients to be monitored and updated. In terms of its calibration traceability, MODIS RSB calibration is reflectance based using an on-board solar diffuser (SD) and the TEB calibration is radiance based using an on-board blackbody (BB). In addition to on-orbit calibration coefficients derived from its OBC, calibration parameters determined from sensor pre-launch calibration and characterization are used in both the RSB and TEB calibration and retrieval algorithms. This paper provides a brief description of MODIS calibration methodologies and an in-depth analysis of its on-orbit calibration uncertainties. Also discussed in this paper are uncertainty contributions from individual components and differences due to Terra and Aqua MODIS instrument characteristics and on-orbit performance.

Chiang, Vincent↗

Assessment of MODIS Reflected Solar Calibration Uncertainty

Determination of the calibration accuracy and traceability of a remote sensing instrument is a driving issue in the use of satellite data for calibration inter-comparisons and studying climate change. The Terra and Aqua MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments have successfully operated for more than 11 and 9 years, respectively. Twenty of the thirty six MODIS spectral bands are in the reflected solar region with center wavelengths ranging from 0.41 to 2.2 microns. MODIS reflective solar band (RSB) on-orbit calibration is reflectance based through the use of an on-board solar diffuser (SO). The calibration uncertainty requirements are +/-2.0% for the RSB reflectance factors at sensor specified typical scene reflectances or radiances. The SO bi-directional reflectance factor (BRF) was characterized pre-launch and its on-orbit changes are tracked by an on-board solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM). This paper provides an assessment of MODIS RSB on-orbit calibration traceability and uncertainty for its Level 1B (L1B) reflectance factors. It examines in details each of the uncertainty contributors, including those from pre-launch measurements as well as on-orbit observations. Common challenging issues and differences due to individual sensors' specific characteristics and on-orbit performance are also discussed in this paper. Guidance and recommendations are presented, based on lessons from MODIS RSB calibration uncertainty assessment, for the development of future instrument calibration and validation plans.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

MODIS Radiometric Calibration and Uncertainty Assessment

Since launch, Terra and Aqua MODIS have collected more than II and 9 years of datasets for comprehensive studies of the Earth's land, ocean, and atmospheric properties. MODIS observations are made in 36 spectral bands: 20 reflective solar bands (RSB) and 16 thermal emissive bands (TEB). Compared to its heritage sensors, MODIS was developed with very stringent calibration and uncertainty requirements. As a result, MODIS was designed and built with a set of state of the art on-board calibrators (OBC), which allow key sensor performance parameters and on-orbit calibration coefficients to be monitored and updated if necessary. In terms of its calibration traceability, MODIS RSB calibration is reflectance based using an on-board solar diffuser (SD) and the TEB calibration is radiance based using an on-board blackbody (BB). In addition to on-orbit calibration coefficients derived from its OBC, calibration parameters determined from sensor pre-launch calibration and characterization are used in both the RSB and TEB calibration and retrieval algorithms. This paper provides a brief description of MODIS calibration methodologies and discusses details of its on-orbit calibration uncertainties. It assesses uncertainty contributions from individual components and differences between Terra and Aqua MODIS due to their design characteristics and on-orbit periormance. Also discussed in this paper is the use of MODIS LIB uncertainty index CUI) product.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

A Proposed Extension to the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity Level 2 Algorithm for Mixed Forest and Moderate Vegetation Pixels

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS)mission, launched in November 2009, provides global maps of soil moisture and ocean salinity by measuring the L-band (1.4 GHz) emission of the Earth's surface with a spatial resolution of 40-50 km.Uncertainty in the retrieval of soilmoisture over large heterogeneous areas such as SMOS pixels is expected, due to the non-linearity of the relationship between soil moisture and the microwave emission. The current baseline soilmoisture retrieval algorithm adopted by SMOS and implemented in the SMOS Level 2 (SMOS L2) processor partially accounts for the sub-pixel heterogeneity of the land surface, by modelling the individual contributions of different pixel fractions to the overall pixel emission. This retrieval approach is tested in this study using airborne L-band data over an area the size of a SMOS pixel characterised by a mix Eucalypt forest and moderate vegetation types (grassland and crops),with the objective of assessing its ability to correct for the soil moisture retrieval error induced by the land surface heterogeneity. A preliminary analysis using a traditional uniform pixel retrieval approach shows that the sub-pixel heterogeneity of land cover type causes significant errors in soil moisture retrieval (7.7%v/v RMSE, 2%v/v bias) in pixels characterised by a significant amount of forest (40-60%). Although the retrieval approach adopted by SMOS partially reduces this error, it is affected by errors beyond the SMOS target accuracy, presenting in particular a strong dry bias when a fraction of the pixel is occupied by forest (4.1%v/v RMSE,-3.1%v/v bias). An extension to the SMOS approach is proposed that accounts for the heterogeneity of vegetation optical depth within the SMOS pixel. The proposed approach is shown to significantly reduce the error in retrieved soil moisture (2.8%v/v RMSE, -0.3%v/v bias) in pixels characterised by a critical amount of forest (40-60%), at the limited cost of only a crude estimate of the optical depth of the forested area (better than 35% uncertainty). This study makes use of an unprecedented data set of airborne L-band observations and ground supporting data from the National Airborne Field Experiment 2005 (NAFE'05), which allowed accurate characterisation of the land surface heterogeneity over an area equivalent in size to a SMOS pixel.

Panciera, Rocco↗

Derivation of a New Smoke Emissions Inventory using Remote Sensing, and Its Implications for Near Real-Time Air Quality Applications

A new emissions inventory of particulate matter (PM) is being derived mainly from remote sensing data using fire radiative power (FRP) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, as well as wind data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis dataset, which spans the satellite era. This product is generated using a coefficient of emission, C(sub e), that has been produced on a 1x1 degree global grid such that, when it is multiplied with satellite measurements of FRP or its time-integrated equivalent fire radiative energy (FRE) retrieved over a given area and time period, the corresponding PM emissions are estimated. This methodology of using C(sub e) to derive PM emissions is relatively new and advantageous for near real-time air quality applications compared to current methods based on post-fire burned area that may not provide emissions in a timely manner. Furthermore, by using FRP to characterize a fire s output, it will represent better accuracy than the use of raw fire pixel counts, since fires in individual pixels can differ in size and strength by orders of magnitude, resulting in similar differences in emission rates. Here we will show examples of this effect and how this new emission inventory can properly account for the differing emission rates from fires of varying strengths. We also describe the characteristics of the new emissions inventory, and propose the process chain of incorporating it into models for air quality applications.

Ellison, Luke↗

Forecasting the Northern African Dust Outbreak Towards Europe in April 2011: A Model Intercomparison

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 hours using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

dust storms↗

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗