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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20

Atomistic Assessment of Solute-Solute Interactions during Grain Boundary Segregation

Grain boundary solute segregation is becoming increasingly common as a means of stabilizing nanocrystalline alloys. Thermodynamic models for grain boundary segregation have recently revealed the need for spectral information, i.e., the full distribution of environments available at the grain boundary during segregation, in order to capture the essential physics of the problem for complex systems like nanocrystalline materials. However, there has been only one proposed method of extending spectral segregation models beyond the dilute limit, and it is based on simple, fitted parameters that are not atomistically informed. In this work, we present a physically motived atomistic method to measure the full distribution of solute-solute interaction energies at the grain boundaries in a polycrystalline environment. We then cast the results into a simple thermodynamic model, analyze the Al(Mg) system as a case study, and demonstrate strong agreement with physically rigorous hybrid Monte Carlo/molecular statics simulations. This approach provides a means of rapidly measuring key interactions for non-dilute grain boundary segregation for any system with an interatomic potential.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Radionuclide surrogate aerosolization, resuspension and suppression in hazardous situations

Radioactive fire following nuclear accidents causes resuspension of radioactive contamination that can spread over large areas. Although many papers focus on particle deposition and resuspension, a limited number of studies model its suppression. Even less data is available for the comparison of emissions across particle size, surface, and mode of resuspension. In this study, cerium dioxide surrogate for internal hazards such as radionuclide particle matter was aerosolized into a large chamber and subsequently resuspended after sedimentation. Resuspension was induced by common modes of human movement including walking, wind, and driving on common surfaces including polyvinyl chloride (PVC), artificial grass (turf), and concrete in a 5.8 m long, 3.7 m wide and 3 m high tent. The resuspension was experimentally measured for two particle sizes (1 and 10 μm) at three different heights (0.3 m, 1.2 m, and 2.4 m) and compared across size, surface, and mode of resuspension. Particle size distribution was measured using an aerodynamic particle sizer and the resuspended particles were collected with the wetted wall cyclone aerosol collector and quantitated using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The testing was repeated with the F-500 fire retardant application to study its effect on resuspension. In this study, artificial grass flooring was found to generate the most resuspension, with walking on turf for the 1 μm particle testing yielding the highest factor overall. Concrete had the lowest resuspension, showing variations in the size distribution of aerosol as a function of height from the source resuspension factors. The application of fire retardant was found to significantly reduce surrogate resuspension, regardless of resuspension method or testing surface. Here, the results provide impactful information regarding the different modes of resuspension including human transport (walking and driving) and wind for the resuspension of radionuclide surrogate particles deposited onto common surfaces and the effect of fire retardant application on their resuspension, leading to higher levels of safety for nuclear energy plants and facilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Scalable Bayesian Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in scientific machine learning, especially when surrogate models are used to approximate complex systems. Although multilayer perceptions (MLPs) are commonly employed as surrogates, they often suffer from overfitting due to their large number of parameters. Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) offer an alternative solution with fewer parameters. However, gradient-based inference methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), may result in computational inefficiency when applied to KANs, especially for large-scale datasets, due to the high cost of back-propagation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach, combining the dropout Tikhonov ensemble Kalman inversion (DTEKI) with Chebyshev KANs. This gradient-free method effectively mitigates overfitting and enhances numerical stability. In addition, we incorporate the active subspace method to reduce the parameter-space dimensionality, allowing us to improve the accuracy of predictions and obtain more reliable uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in various test cases, including scenarios with large datasets and high noise levels. Our results show that the new method achieves comparable or better accuracy, much higher efficiency as well as stability compared to HMC, in addition to scalability. Moreover, by leveraging the low-dimensional parameter subspace, our method preserves prediction accuracy while substantially reducing further the computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Toward Improved Regional Hydrological Model Performance Using State-Of-The-Science Data-Informed Soil Parameters

Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF-Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients ( r ), reduced biases, and increased Kling-Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well-established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS-adjusted WRF-Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF-Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO-informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured, r increases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre-calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discrete element modeling of irregular-shaped soft pine particle flow in an FT4 powder rheometer

Pine residues are a commonly used biomass feedstock that consists of different anatomical fractions, each with distinct particle characteristics. Here, in this work, an experiment-informed discrete element model is developed to investigate the flowability of pine residues in an FT4 rheometer. Multi-sphere particles with distinct particle attributes are created to model each anatomical fraction type. A systematic analysis of specimens with varying particle characteristics (e.g., anatomical fraction type, particle shape, and size) is conducted to elucidate the relationship between particle attributes and flowability. The results show that stems recorded the highest axial force and torque and, correspondingly, the highest flow energy, which is attributed to their high stiffness and interlocking effect. Increasing their percentage in the mixture increases the flow energy while increasing needles tends to decrease flow energy. Knowledge gained in this study on the flow of anatomical fractions is important for the efficient and robust processing of pine residues.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Robust Machine Learning Inference from X-ray Absorption Near Edge Spectra through Featurization

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a commonly employed technique for characterizing functional materials. In particular, X-ray absorption near edge spectra (XANES) encode local coordination and electronic information, and machine learning approaches to extract this information are of significant interest. To date, most ML approaches for XANES have primarily focused on using the raw spectral intensities as input, overlooking the potential benefits of incorporating spectral transformations and dimensionality reduction techniques into ML predictions. Here, in this work, we focused on systematically comparing the impact of different featurization methods on the performance of ML models for XAS analysis. We evaluated the classification and regression capabilities of these models on computed data sets and validated their performance on previously unseen experimental data sets. Our analysis revealed an intriguing discovery: the cumulative distribution function feature achieves both high prediction accuracy and exceptional transferability. This remarkably robust performance can be attributed to its tolerance to horizontal shifts in the spectra, which is crucial when validating models using experimental data. While this work exclusively focuses on XANES analysis, we anticipate that the methodology presented here will hold promise as a versatile asset to the broader spectroscopy community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes in a Temperate Tidal Salt Marsh: Comparisons Between Plot and Ecosystem Measurements

Tidal wetlands are comprised of complex interdependent pathways where measurements of carbon exchange are often scale dependent. Common data collection methods (i.e., chambers and eddy covariance) are inherently constrained to different spatial and temporal scales which could generate biased information for applications of carbon accounting, identifying functional relationships and predicting future responses to climate change. Consequently, it is needed to systematically evaluate measurements derived from multiple approaches to identify differences and how techniques complement each other to reconcile interpretations. For our study, to accomplish this, we tested ecosystem-scale eddy covariance with plot-scale chamber measurements within a temperate salt marsh. We found good agreement (R 2 = 0.71–0.95) when comparing measurements of CH 4 emissions and CO 2 exchange but this agreement was dependent upon canopy phenology with discrepancies mainly arising during senescence and dormancy phenophases. The environmental drivers for CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes were mostly preserved across different measurement techniques, but the number of drivers increases while their individual strength decreases at the ecosystem scale. Empirical upscaling models parameterized with chamber measurements overestimated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE; 108%) and gross primary production (GPP; 12%) while underestimating ecosystem respiration (Reco; 14%) and CH 4 emissions (69%) compared to eddy covariance measurements. Our results suggest that the environmental complexity of CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes in salt marshes may be underestimated by chamber-based measurements, and highlights how different techniques are complementary while considering limitations at each level of measurement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multimodal representation learning for predicting molecule–disease relations

Motivation: Predicting molecule–disease indications and side effects is important for drug development and pharmacovigilance. Comprehensively mining molecule–molecule, molecule–disease and disease–disease semantic dependencies can potentially improve prediction performance. Methods: We introduce a Multi-Modal REpresentation Mapping Approach to Predicting molecular-disease relations (M2REMAP) by incorporating clinical semantics learned from electronic health records (EHR) of 12.6 million patients. Specifically, M2REMAP first learns a multimodal molecule representation that synthesizes chemical property and clinical semantic information by mapping molecule chemicals via a deep neural network onto the clinical semantic embedding space shared by drugs, diseases and other common clinical concepts. To infer molecule–disease relations, M2REMAP combines multimodal molecule representation and disease semantic embedding to jointly infer indications and side effects. Results: We extensively evaluate M2REMAP on molecule indications, side effects and interactions. Results show that incorporating EHR embeddings improves performance significantly, for example, attaining an improvement over the baseline models by 23.6% in PRC-AUC on indications and 23.9% on side effects. Further, M2REMAP overcomes the limitation of existing methods and effectively predicts drugs for novel diseases and emerging pathogens. Availability and implementation: The code is available at https://github.com/celehs/M2REMAP, and prediction results are provided at https://shiny.parse-health.org/drugs-diseases-dev/.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in SSL Device Efficiency and Optical Performance Under Accelerated Aging Conditions

Lighting application efficiency (LAE) describes the efficient delivery of light from the light source to the lighted task and is viewed as a new frontier—increasing energy savings with solid-state lighting (SSL) technologies. The framework for LAE that is proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) consists of four major elements: light source efficiency, optical delivery efficiency, spectral efficiency, and intensity effectiveness. This report focuses on a sampling of the available SSL products that can be broadly defined as having modified spectral output because the method of spectra modification has a significant impact on light source efficiency and long-term optical delivery and spectral efficiencies. This report focused on the changes in light source, optical delivery, and spectral efficiencies that occur during aging of SSL devices. An accelerated stress test (AST) regiment was developed for the devices under test (DUTs) examined in this report to provide insights into how the performance of SSL devices change with aging. The AST protocols demonstrate that the SSL products discussed in this report often reduce light source efficiency to achieve different spectral characteristics. In addition, aging of the optical components (e.g., lenses, solder masks) in SSL devices can produce increased light absorption, which negatively impacts optical delivery efficiency and light source efficiency. The modified spectral outputs of the selected SSL products discussed in this report come in a variety of form factors and achieve enhanced optical performance by using a variety of methods. All of the products examined in this study use mid-power light-emitting diodes (MP-LEDs), although the number, configuration, phosphor content, and light-emitting diode (LED) pump of the MP-LEDs differ. Product MS-1 is a 60-watt (W) replacement A19 lamp with a hermetically sealed glass globe, which contains an embedded optical filter to absorb green and yellow emissions, thereby creating a “sunlike” modified spectrum. Product MS-2 is a 60-W replacement A19 lamp with 30 MP-LEDs, and it uses a violet LED pump, along with green and red phosphor emissions, to produce a “healthy” spectrum. This spectrum omits blue emissions in an effort to reduce melanopic lux. Product MS-3 is an LED module consisting of 21 MP-LEDs that use a violet LED pump, along with blue, green, and red phosphors, to produce a “sunlike” spectrum. Products MS-4 and MS-5 are both 6-inch (in) downlights that use a manual switching mechanism so that users can select application-specific correlated color temperatures before installation. Products MS-4 and MS-5 both contain two LED primaries (2,700 Kelvin [K] and 5,000 K) for spectral tuning. Product MS-4 contains 12 MP-LEDs for each LED primary, and Product MS-5 contains 10 MP-LEDs for each LED primary. This report summarizes the overall findings from up to 8,000 hours (hrs) of AST on the lamp DUTs (Products MS-1 and MS-2); up to 5,000 hrs of AST on the LED light engine DUTs (Product MS-3); and up to 7,000 hrs of AST on the downlight DUTs (Products MS-4 and MS-5). The AST procedures used in this study included a room temperature operational life (RTOL) test, an operational life test conducted at 45 degrees Celsius (°C; 45OL) test, an operational life test conducted at 75°C (75OL), a wet high-temperature operational life test performed at 65°C and 90% relative humidity (6590), and a wet high-temperature operational life test performed at 75°C and 75% relative humidity (7575). The AST procedures used for Products MS-1 and MS-2 were RTOL, 45OL, and 6590. The AST procedures used for Products MS-3, MS-4, and MS-5 were RTOL, 75OL, and 7575. During the ASTs described herein, separate populations of each product (three DUTs in each population for Products MS-1, MS-2, MS-4, and MS-5; four DUTs in each population for Product MS-3) were subjected to power cycling of 1 hr on and 1 hr off. The key findings from this study include the following. Enhanced optical performance came at the cost of reduced light source efficiency for the lamps and light engines examined in this study. The optical filter used to produce a “sunlike” spectrum for Product MS-1 reduced light source efficiency by 26%, from 113 lumens per watt (lm/W) to 85 lm/W. Products MS-2 and MS-3 that used a violet-pumped LED to achieve “healthy” and “sunlike” enhanced optical performance, respectively, suffered the largest reduction in initial light source efficiency (49 lm/W for Product MS-2 and 68 lm/W for Products MS-3) perhaps because of the use of violet LED as the optical pump. Product MS-2 also had the poorest color fidelity because of undersaturation of blues and oversaturation of greens and yellows. Chromaticity maintenance of the products in this study was generally good, with parametric failure only occurring for one product at one AST condition (i.e., Product MS-3 at 7575). The chromaticity shift for Product MS-3 in 7575 test conditions resulted from reduced emissions of the broad green and red phosphors used to mimic sunlight in the 500–750 nanometer (nm) range. As a result of these phosphor emission losses, chromaticity shifted toward the more stable violet-pumped LED and blue phosphor. Although chromaticity maintenance was acceptable for most products tested, different chromaticity shift mechanisms were observed for temperature and humidity tests compared with temperature alone for Products MS-1, MS-2, and MS-3. For Product MS-1, a relative increase in green emissions was observed with humidity, which may indicate humidity-accelerated degradation of the optical filter at green wavelengths (optical delivery efficiency reduction) or degradation of the emitters in the red region (spectral efficiency reduction). The violet-pumped products (i.e., MS-2 and MS-3) exhibited different chromaticity shift behavior in the temperature-humidity environments, with Product MS-2 shifting generally yellow because of photo-induced oxidation of the plastic globe (i.e., a reduction of optical delivery efficiency) and Product MS-3 shifting toward violet and blue emitters because of faster loss of emission from green and red phosphors (i.e., a reduction in spectral efficiency). Because of an initial drop in power consumption, the light source efficiency of downlights (Products MS-4 and MS-5) increased at RTOL throughout the test duration. The light source efficiency initially increased during 75OL until a decay in luminous flux maintenance (LFM) dominated light source efficiency, whereas the light source efficiency decreased for the entire 7575 test duration. It was found that increasing the ambient environment of an SSL device from 25°C to 75°C decreases the LFM by 2.7 to 5.5, depending on design of the SSL device. Adding humidity to the system (75OL to 7575) was found to decrease LFM by another factor of approximately 3.0. A common location of failure was identified for the downlights (Products MS-4 and MS-5) operated in the 7575 environment. This failure abruptly occurred between 3,000 to 5,000 hrs of testing on the film capacitor of the electromagnetic interference (EMI) filter near the diode bridge for 11 of the 12 downlights. It is likely that this failure was caused by a combination of the high electrical voltage across the capacitor, the location of the capacitor near the heat sources (e.g., transformers, diode bridges, power resistors), and the high stress environment of 7575. Longer test times are needed to fully understand the LFM, luminous efficacy changes, and chromaticity shifts for some of the products. Because of the high reliability, light source efficiency, and spectral tuning capabilities of LEDs, the expectations of LAE for SSL products are greatly increased over traditional lighting products. The data gathered in this report begin to provide an understanding of the tradeoffs that current SSL products undergo when optimizing the different efficiency elements of LAE. As discussed in this report, the findings from the tests conducted show that the optimization of spectral efficiency can come at the cost of initial light source efficiency. Furthermore, the introduction of violet LEDs can promote long-term optical delivery efficiency degradation, and the introduction of optical filters or new phosphors can lead to unwanted spectral efficiency changes because the ratio of phosphor emitters changes with aging. The data presented in this report also identified a common failure location in 6-in downlights. The results regarding long-term behavior of the modified spectra devices studied provide valuable information about changes to the light source, spectral, and optical delivery efficiencies as the devices age. This information can be used to improve future SSL designs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Toward a Resilient Cybersecure Hydropower Fleet: Cybersecurity Landscape and Roadmap 2021

With this roadmap, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) hopes to assist the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) in improving the cybersecurity of hydropower plants across the nation. This effort draws upon collected data from the dams sector, from industrial control system cybersecurity threat reports, from similar work focused on neighboring sectors, and from frank discussions with owners, operators, and vendors. While remaining tightly focused on the needs of hydropower projects, during this landscape study and development of the resulting roadmap, the research team sought to remain informed by the larger energy sector’s vision and direction so that the topics and milestones may fit within a larger vision common to the whole.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Magnetic Field Vector Measurements Using Doppler-Free Saturation Spectroscopy

Experimentally measuring the magnetic-field vector topology in low-cost fusion-concept devices will provide critical information required to optimize and accelerate the development of those concepts for economical fusion energy. The magnetic-field measurement techniques most commonly used in modern tokamaks, i.e., beam-emission spectroscopy and optical emission spectroscopy, are not suitable below 5000 Gauss due to a lack of sensitivity. To diagnose magnetic field relevant to some of the ARPA-E-supported fusion concepts (50 to 1000 Gauss), a novel approach is required. Doppler-free saturation spectroscopy (DFSS) is a pump/probe laser-based technique and has been successfully demonstrated in the laboratory to provide a magnetic-field measurement accuracy of <10 Gauss. DFSS is implemented to obtain ultra-high-resolution spectra at a localized point in space. The spectral data is then fit to the Schrödinger equation for determination of the magnetic-field vector. To obtain the magnetic-field topology, the measurement spatial location is scanned over the desired region of space by steering the DFSS pump laser beam. The goal of this project is to assemble and commission a portable DFSS diagnostic capable of 2-D magnetic-field vector measurements utilizing the Hα spectral line profile.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

National Fire Protection Association Spurs the Safe Adoption of EVs Through Education and Outreach

As electric vehicles (EV) and their charging infrastructure steadily increase in popularity across the U.S., growing pains still exist, impeding their true potential for growth. The barriers include a general lack of knowledge around EV systems, range anxiety, electrical workplace safety practices, code compliance and inspection for charging stations, maintenance garages and workers, insurance concerns, and the potential risks associated with damaged lithium-ion batteries (fires, re-ignition, water immersion, and stranded energy).NFPA partnered with SMEs, training development organizations, and Clean City Coalitions to create a series of common online trainings for each EV ecosystem sector, educating communities on the realities of EV proliferation, myths, facts, statistics, codes, and basic information for each sector to become versed in EV knowledge. We also constructed a workshop program for the many EV stakeholders who should be involved in setting up a strategic, cohesive outlook for the participating towns and cities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Alabama Carbon Storage: Bringing Data to the People

The Gulf Coastal Plain of Alabama has proven potential for geologic carbon storage and current interest in the area for large carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects is high. Extensive CCS relevant data exist in the records of the Geological Survey of Alabama and State Oil and Gas Board of Alabama, however, most of this data is not publicly available or is scattered in separate databases, file cabinets, and tables in publications. The “Alabama Carbon Storage: Data Sharing and Engagement” (ACS-DSE) project seeks to accelerate the responsible development of large CCS projects in the Gulf Coastal Plain of Alabama and offshore in state waters through a publicly accessible database of geologic carbon storage models and data across the region. The ACS-DSE draws on the over 150 years of geologic research and over 20 years of experience in CCS research to place relevant geologic, geophysical, and infrastructure data on a single web platform. Datasets available will include formation depths and elevations, geologic structures, reservoir properties, digital well logs (LAS files), existing penetrations, and geologic models. In addition to downloadable datasets, links to CCS related regulatory agencies and other sources of information will be included (for example, Class VI UIC permitting regulations and pipeline regulations). By making these datasets and models available in commonly used formats on a public website, the project will increase transparency in decision making and decrease the data acquisition time for industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Universal framework for simultaneous tomography of quantum states and SPAM noise

We present a general denoising algorithm for performing simultaneous tomography of quantum states and measurement noise. This algorithm allows us to fully characterize state preparation and measurement (SPAM) errors present in any quantum system. Our method is based on the analysis of the properties of the linear operator space induced by unitary operations. Given any quantum system with a noisy measurement apparatus, our method can output the quantum state and the noise matrix of the detector up to a single gauge degree of freedom. We show that this gauge freedom is unavoidable in the general case, but this degeneracy can be generally broken using prior knowledge on the state or noise properties, thus fixing the gauge for several types of state-noise combinations with no assumptions about noise strength. Such combinations include pure quantum states with arbitrarily correlated errors, and arbitrary states with block independent errors. This framework can further use available prior information about the setting to systematically reduce the number of observations and measurements required for state and noise detection. Our method effectively generalizes existing approaches to the problem, and includes as special cases common settings considered in the literature requiring an uncorrelated or invertible noise matrix, or specific probe states.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

To have value, comparisons of high-throughput phenotyping methods need statistical tests of bias and variance

The gap between genomics and phenomics is narrowing. The rate at which it is narrowing, however, is being slowed by improper statistical comparison of methods. Quantification using Pearson’s correlation coefficient ( r ) is commonly used to assess method quality, but it is an often misleading statistic for this purpose as it is unable to provide information about the relative quality of two methods. Using r can both erroneously discount methods that are inherently more precise and validate methods that are less accurate. These errors occur because of logical flaws inherent in the use of r when comparing methods, not as a problem of limited sample size or the unavoidable possibility of a type I error. A popular alternative to using r is to measure the limits of agreement (LOA). However both r and LOA fail to identify which instrument is more or less variable than the other and can lead to incorrect conclusions about method quality. An alternative approach, comparing variances of methods, requires repeated measurements of the same subject, but avoids incorrect conclusions. Variance comparison is arguably the most important component of method validation and, thus, when repeated measurements are possible, variance comparison provides considerable value to these studies. Statistical tests to compare variances presented here are well established, easy to interpret and ubiquitously available. The widespread use of r has potentially led to numerous incorrect conclusions about method quality, hampering development, and the approach described here would be useful to advance high throughput phenotyping methods but can also extend into any branch of science. The adoption of the statistical techniques outlined in this paper will help speed the adoption of new high throughput phenotyping techniques by indicating when one should reject a new method, outright replace an old method or conditionally use a new method.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Energy Emergency and Preparedness Data: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) and Quick Guidance on Crisis Communications

State Energy Offices and Public Utility Commissions rely on timely, accurate, and actionable information to perform their energy emergency response duties and execute their roles as state energy security planners. In support of this need, the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) and the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissions (NARUC) hosted an Energy Security and Data Analysis Workshop in Washington, DC to identify energy security response and planning data sources; and to share successful methods of data use and integration in state, federal, and private sector tools. Following the workshop, NASEO and NARUC hosted two topical data-centric webinars based on state priorities to identify best practices in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Crisis Communications programs leveraged in energy assurance planning and response. The Crisis Communications webinar covered best practice tactics for how states can respond during energy emergencies and other crises. Based on the workshop and webinars, this document summarizes commonly used data sources and includes frequently asked questions which may be used by state energy officials (i.e., consisting of staff from Public Utility Commissions and Governor-designated State Energy Offices) to help guide them in developing or improving their Crisis Communications capabilities. A strong public information program is a key crisis management tool. Timely and accurate information helps prevent confusion and uncertainty and encourages public support and cooperation. As energy subject matter experts, state energy officials are vital in the distilling, clarifying, and conveying energy sector information and implications to decision-makers and the public. Other participants in an effective public information program include the Governor’s Office, other state agencies, local governments, energy providers, local businesses, state legislature, and the federal government. It is essential to provide stakeholders and the public with information about the nature, severity, and duration of an emergency because inadequate understanding and awareness can lead to undesirable actions that could further exacerbate the situation. Before a state government can provide information to the public, it must gather information, describe the emergency accurately, and develop recommendations to manage the situation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An Assessment of Non-Powered Dam Hydropower Development Opportunities in the United States

Retrofitting non-powered dams (NPDs) to add hydropower offers multiple benefits over traditional, new hydropower development. Since much of the civil works infrastructure already exists, many retrofits require minimal new construction and can leverage existing water conveyances and discharge for generation. Although NPDs vary considerably in terms of their defining characteristics, identifying similarities helps support targeted investment and find opportunities to develop solutions for common challenges. With the publication of NPD-related data in 2022 (Hansen et al. 2022b), the US Department of Energy and relevant stakeholders are equipped with key information across roughly 89,000 US NPDs. These data represent the best-available information to date and extend beyond previous assessments of potential power capacity by describing design, operational, socioeconomic, environmental aspects of NPDs (Hadjerioua et al. 2012). To capitalize on these efforts to improve breadth and depth of NPD data access, this study uses a data-driven approach to assess NPD hydropower development opportunities in the United States. To help describe project feasibility drivers for NPDs, recent NPD retrofits were reviewed to examine variability with respect to a variety of characteristics. Based on the assessment of recent retrofits and data availability, several attributes were selected to characterize the remaining NPD population: (1) owner type, (2) 30% exceedance flow (a common design flow that describes the flow that is exceeded by 30% of the flow in the record), (3) hydraulic head, and (4) maximum reservoir storage. These four characteristics were used as inputs to a statistical clustering analysis (a common technique for grouping individuals of a population based on similarities or how closely associated individuals are to one another) of a set of 2,709 NPDs with at least 100 kW potential capacity and recently retrofit dams with available data. With the large dataset of NPDs, the clusters help describe how the population breaks down into different types (i.e., how many types of dams there are and what portion of the population belongs to each cluster).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗