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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The role of memory in non-genetic inheritance and its impact on cancer treatment resistance

Intra-tumour heterogeneity is a leading cause of treatment failure and disease progression in cancer. While genetic mutations have long been accepted as a primary mechanism of generating this heterogeneity, the role of phenotypic plasticity is becoming increasingly apparent as a driver of intra-tumour heterogeneity. Consequently, understanding the role of this plasticity in treatment resistance and failure is a key component of improving cancer therapy. We develop a mathematical model of stochastic phenotype switching that tracks the evolution of drug-sensitive and drug-tolerant subpopulations to clarify the role of phenotype switching on population growth rates and tumour persistence. By including cytotoxic therapy in the model, we show that, depending on the strategy of the drug-tolerant subpopulation, stochastic phenotype switching can lead to either transient or permanent drug resistance. We study the role of phenotypic heterogeneity in a drug-resistant, genetically homogeneous population of non-small cell lung cancer cells to derive a rational treatment schedule that drives population extinction and avoids competitive release of the drug-tolerant sub-population. This model-informed therapeutic schedule results in increased treatment efficacy when compared against periodic therapy, and, most importantly, sustained tumour decay without the development of resistance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Shock Tube Radiation Measurements in Nitrogen

Spectrally and spatially resolved radiance has been measured in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility, with the aim of improving fundamental understanding of high enthalpy flows in pure nitrogen. These tests provide data to inform models used for simulations of high speed flight in nitrogen rich atmospheres, such as Earth or Titan. The experiments presented in this paper cover conditions from approximately 6 km/s to 11 km/s at an initial pressure of 0.2 Torr. A wide range of physics, with different degrees of non-equilibrium and nitrogen dissociation, are covered. The EAST data are presented in different formats for analysis and comparisons. These formats include the spectral radiance at equilibrium (where appropriate), the spatial dependence of radiance over defined wavelength ranges and the mean non-equilibrium spectral radiance (the so-called "spectral non-equilibrium metric"). All the information needed to simulate each experimental trace, including free-stream conditions, shock time of arrival (i.e. x-t) relation, and the spectral and spatial resolution functions, are provided. Equilibrium radiation calculations are shown as a reference. It is the intention of this paper to motivate code comparisons benchmarked against this data set.

shock tube↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluated 238 U(n,f) Average Prompt Fission Neutron Multiplicities Including the CGMF Model

This report documents an evaluation of the average prompt fission neutron multiplicity, $\overline{v}_p$, of 238 U from 800 keV to MeV. This evaluation had to be re-done from “scratch” as the input to previous $\overline{v}_p$ evaluations, specifically ENDF/B-VIII.0, was not found. That means that all available experimental data were re-analyzed and uncertainties were re-estimated. The new evaluated 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ based on only experimental data differs distinctly from ENDF/B-VIII.0 $\overline{v}_p$ from 2 to 4.5 MeV, and from 6 to 7 MeV, and is otherwise similar. The difference from 2 to 4.5 MeV stems from the fact that ENDF/B-VIII.0 was tweaked in this energy range to data of Frehaut, while two other, equally trustworthy, data sets would indicate an evaluated 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ that is up to 2% higher. Also, second chance fission in ENDF/B-VIII.0 was smoothed over from 6–7 MeV. Another major difference to ENDF/B-VIII.0 is that one of the evaluations presented here includes model information from the Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay code CGMF, while ENDF/B-VIII.0 is based purely on experimental data. CGMF links several fission quantities with each other; $\overline{v}_p$ is predicted by assumptions made on, e.g., pre-neutron emission yields as a function of mass, the total kinetic energy, or spin and parity of fission fragments. This allows to validate the new 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ by using CGMF parameters obtained from fitting to experimental 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ to predict yields as a function of mass, the average total kinetic energy, or the mean energy of the prompt fission neutron spectrum. These model-predicted values can then be compared to experimental and evaluated data. The model-predicted fission-observable values using evaluated parameters obtained here are reasonably close to experimental data for some observables, but are farther away from experimental data related to TKE observables. In addition to that, the evaluated 238 U(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ shows similar deviations from ENDF/B-VIII.0 as for the evaluation with only experimental data. This difference is expected to lead to changes in simulated effective neutron multiplication factor, $k_{eff}$ of ICSBEP critical assemblies that are sensitive to 238 U in the fast range (BigTen, Flattop, Flattop-Pu). These changes in $k_{eff}$ need to be counter-balanced. Chi-Nu PFNS experimental data are expected to be released in the next few months that might lead to the needed changes in the PFNS. Until then, we hold off in benchmarking the new 238 U(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ as well as submitting it to ENDF/B-VIII.1. Also, new high-precision 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ are expected to be measured by the CEA in the next two years that will shed further light on question on 238 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 2–4.5 and 6–7 MeV.

238U↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions From Aviation Soot Emissions

Current models estimate global aviation contributes approximately 5% to the total anthropogenic climate forcing, with aerosol-cloud interactions having the greatest effect. However, radiative forcing estimates from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions remain undetermined. There is an expected significant increase in aircraft emissions with aviation demand expected to rise by over 4% per year. Soot may play an important role in the ice nucleation of aircraft-induced cirrus formation due to a high emission rate, but the ice nucleating properties are poorly constrained. Understanding the microphysical processes leading to atmospheric ice crystal formation is crucial for the reliable parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models due to their impact on precipitation and cloud radiative properties. Ice nucleation of aircraft-emitted soot is potentially affected by particle morphology with condensation of supercooled water occurring in pores followed by ice nucleation. However, soot has heterogeneous properties and undergoes atmospheric aging and oxidation that could change surface properties and contribute to complex ice nucleation processes. Further, this review synthesizes current knowledge of ice nucleation catalyzed by aviation in the cirrus regime and its effects on global radiative forcing. Further research is required to determine the ice nucleation and microphysical processes of cirrus cloud formation from aviation emissions in both controlled laboratory and field investigations to inform models for more accurate climate predictions and to provide efficient mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct Geologic Constraints on the Timing of Late Holocene Ice Thickening in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica

Abstract Constraining past West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) change helps validate numerical models simulating future ice sheet dynamics. Following rapid deglaciation during the mid‐Holocene, ice near Thwaites Glacier was ∼35 m thinner than present; however, the timing of ice regrowth to its present configuration remains unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we present cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages of cobbles from the surface of a moraine situated between Thwaites and Pope glaciers. We infer that the moraine formed and stabilized in the Late Holocene (∼1.4 ka) when a small glacier thickened. We also present a novel reconstruction of WAIS volume constrained by sea‐level data, which demonstrates that moraine formation coincided with a large‐scale WAIS readvance. Our new geologic constraints will help inform models of the solid Earth response to surface mass loading, improving our understanding of ice sheet dynamics in a vulnerable part of WAIS.

Nichols, Keir A. [Imperial College London London U↗
DOE OSTI2020

Research three-dimensional hierarchical graphite architectures for anodes for fast charging

With current lithium ion batteries optimized for performance under relatively low charge rate conditions, implementation of XFC has been hindered by drawbacks including Li plating, kinetic polarization, and heat dissipation. This project will utilize model-informed design of 3-D hierarchical electrodes to tune key XFCrelated variables like 1) bulk porosity/tortuosity 2) vertical pore diameter, spacing, and lattice 3) crystallographic orientation of graphite particles relative to exposed surfaces 4) interfacial chemistry of the graphite surfaces through "artificial sEr' formation using ALD 5) current collector surface roughness (aspect ratio, roughness factor, etc.). A key aspect of implementing novel electrodes is characterizing them in relevant settings. For this project, ultimately led out of University of Michigan by Neil Dasgupta, that includes both coin cell and 2+ Ah pouch cell testing, as well as comparison testing against baselines. Sandia National Labs will be conducting detailed cell characterization on iterative versions/improvements of the model-based hierarchical electrodes, as well as COTS cells for baseline comparisons. Key metrics include performance under fast charge conditions, as well as the absence or degree of lithium plating. Sandia will use their unique high precision cycling and rapid EIS capabilities to accurately characterize performance and any lithium plating during 6C charging and beyond, coupling electrochemical observations with cell teardown. Sandia will also design custom fixturing to cool cells during rapid charge, to decouple any kinetic effects brought about by cell heating and allow comparisons between different cells and charge rates. Using these techniques, Sandia will assess HOH electrodes from the University of Michigan, as well as aiding in iterative model and electrode design.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Release of Evaluated 235 U(n,f) Average Prompt Fission Neutron Multiplicities Including the CGMF Model

This report documents an evaluation of the average prompt fission neutron multiplicity, $\overline{v}_p$, of 235 U from 200 keV to 15 MeV that is a potential release candidate for the upcoming U.S. nuclear data library, ENDF/B-VIII.1. This evaluation had to be re-done from "scratch", as the input to the $\overline{v}_p$ evaluation of the previous library, ENDF/B-VIII.0, was lost. That means that all available experimental data were re-analyzed and uncertainties were re-estimated. Another major difference to ENDF/B-VIII.0 is that this evaluation includes model information from the Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay code CGMF, while ENDF/B-VIII.0 is based purely on experimental data. CGMF links several fission quantities with each other; $\overline{v}_p$ is predicted by assumptions made on, e.g., pre-neutron emission yields as a function of mass, the total kinetic energy, or spin and parity of fission fragments. This allows to perform two types of validation for the new 235 U $\overline{v}_p$: On the one hand, one can employ evaluated CGMF parameters obtained from fitting to experimental 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ to predict yields as a function of mass, the average total kinetic energy, or the mean energy of the prompt fission neutron spectrum. These model-predicted values can then be compared to experimental and evaluated data. The model-predicted fission-observable values using evaluated parameters obtained here are reasonably close to experimental data indicating the evaluated 235 U(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ are physical. On the other hand, one can validate 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ with respect to integral responses such as fast ICSBEP critical assemblies or LLNL pulsed spheres. LLNL pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra are minimally impacted by the new 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ as these experimental data are shape data and the $\overline{v}_p$ would mostly lead to a change in normalization of the data as the spheres are relatively thin (0.7 and 1.5 mean-free path) and, thus, mostly depend on 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 12-15 MeV. The change in the predicted effective neutron multiplication factor, k eff , of selected ICSBEP critical assemblies, however, is large compared to values using ENDF/B-VIII.0 and experimental k eff : The average bias is 108 pcm across all studied k eff values versus 12 pcm for ENDF/B-VIII.0. A reasonable performance in simulating keff (mean bias of 14 pcm) can be retained by tweaking 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 3-5 MeV, and combining it with a recent 235 U PFNS evaluation that is also a ENDF/B-VIII.1 release candidate.

235U↗
NASA NTRS1986

On the selection and evaluation of visual display symbology Factors influencing search and identification times

Three single-target visual search tasks were used to evaluate a set of cathode-ray tube (CRT) symbols for a helicopter situation display. The search tasks were representative of the information extraction required in practice, and reaction time was used to measure the efficiency with which symbols could be located and identified. Familiar numeric symbols were responded to more quickly than graphic symbols. The addition of modifier symbols, such as a nearby flashing dot or surrounding square, had a greater disruptive effect on the graphic symbols than did the numeric characters. The results suggest that a symbol set is, in some respects, like a list that must be learned. Factors that affect the time to identify items in a memory task, such as familiarity and visual discriminability, also affect the time to identify symbols. This analogy has broad implications for the design of symbol sets. An attempt was made to model information access with this class of display.

Remington, Roger↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of Hydroxymethylfurfural Yield in Glucose Conversion through Investigation of Lewis Acid and Organic Solvent Effects

Hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) is one of the important renewable platform compounds that can be obtained from biomass feedstocks through glucose conversion catalyzed by Brønsted and Lewis acids. However, it is challenging to enhance the HMF yield due to side reactions. In this study, a systematic approach combining theory and experiment was performed to investigate the influence of Lewis acids and organic solvents on the HMF yield. For the Lewis acid effect, a relationship between chemical hardness and experimental HMF yields was found in the rate-limiting step of glucose-to-fructose isomerization for six metal chlorides; HMF production was promoted when the metal chloride and a substrate had a similar chemical hardness. To study the organic solvent effect, a multivariate model was developed based on the insights gained from the mechanistic study of fructose dehydration, to predict HMF yields in a given water-organic cosolvent system. It showed a reliable accuracy in evaluating HMF yields with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.0% with respect to experimental HMF yields for 13 solvents, and also predicted HMF yields with a MAE of 10.7% for four new solvents. Chemical interpretation of the model revealed that it is desirable to use a solvent capable of stabilizing the carbocation intermediates with low proton transfer activity and high hydrogen bond basicity, to maximize the HMF yield. This multivariate model informs experimentalists about rational selection of solvents with very low computational costs needed to calculate only six variables for each solvent. It can be expanded to other catalytic systems such as heterogeneous Brønsted–Lewis bifunctional catalysts and enables optimization of reaction conditions to obtain other useful platform molecules through biomass conversion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE 5-2615: Determination and Analysis of Thermo-poromechanical Response of Fractured Rock - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Determination and Modeling-Informed Analysis of Thermo-poromechanical Response of Fractured Rock for Application to FORGE by the University of Oklahoma, presented by Ahmad Ghassemi. This video presentation discusses how to improve understanding and control of coupled thermoporomechanical (or thermo-hydro-mechanical-THM) processes in reservoir development, and to demonstrate its role in interpretations of the fracture closure pressure. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 13-15, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Assessment of Data-driven Process Models in Health Information Technology

Process mining for conformance analysis consists of comparing a reference process model against a data-driven process model generated via log files from information technology systems. However, in the absence of a complete reference process model, we found no suggested approaches in the literature to address the need for evaluating process conformance among different healthcare facilities to assess standardization of care. Our goal is to find similarities and dissimilarities in data-driven process models among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities that can be indicative of patient safety issues. Our hypothesis was that the analysis would not produce statistically significant differences in outcome. We present a unique implementation of conformance analysis in process mining that consists of combining process mining, process mapping and statistical metrics. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the analysis of two clinical radiology order process models generated from healthcare data provided by two similar facilities in the VHA. The comparative assessment showed that about 70% of the orders completed successfully and 30% were not completed due to policy and duplications. Our analysis found a good statistical correlation between both facilities, as the Spearman’s correlation coefficient between facilities for the frequency of cases per total hours was 0.87879, for the frequency of cases by state transition was 0.79702 and for the throughput time per state transition was 0.63582. Additional statistical analyses using the Mann-Whitney U test and the root mean square error both produced values that were not significant. The foregoing approach validated our hypothesis by demonstrating a good statistical correlation of data describing the flow of clinical radiology orders absent a credible reference model. Finding good agreement between both facilities was important in confirming that the clinical orders flow in a similar manner, suggesting standardization of care.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

City-Scale Building Anthropogenic Heating during Heat Waves

More frequent and longer duration heat waves have been observed worldwide and are recognized as a serious threat to human health and the stability of electrical grids. Past studies have identified a positive feedback between heat waves and urban heat island effects. Anthropogenic heat emissions from buildings have a crucial impact on the urban environment, and hence it is critical to understand the interactive effects of urban microclimate and building heat emissions in terms of the urban energy balance. Here we developed a coupled-simulation approach to quantify these effects, mapping urban environmental data generated by the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) coupled to Urban Canopy Model (UCM) to urban building energy models (UBEM). We conducted a case study in the city of Los Angeles, California, during a five-day heat wave event in September 2009. We analyzed the surge in city-scale building heat emission and energy use during the extreme heat event. We first simulated the urban microclimate at a high resolution (500 m by 500 m) using WRF-UCM. We then generated grid-level building heat emission profiles and aggregated them using prototype building energy models informed by spatially disaggregated urban land use and urban building density data. The spatial patterns of anthropogenic heat discharge from the building sector were analyzed, and the quantitative relationship with weather conditions and urban land-use dynamics were assessed at the grid level. The simulation results indicate that the dispersion of anthropogenic heat from urban buildings to the urban environment increases by up to 20% on average and varies significantly, both in time and space, during the heat wave event. The heat dispersion from the air-conditioning heat rejection contributes most (86.5%) of the total waste heat from the buildings to the urban environment. We also found that the waste heat discharge in inland, dense urban districts is more sensitive to extreme events than it is in coastal or suburban areas. The generated anthropogenic heat profiles can be used in urban microclimate models to provide a more accurate estimation of urban air temperature rises during heat waves.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biogeochemical dynamics and microbial community development under sulfate- and iron-reducing conditions based on electron shuttle amendment

Iron reduction and sulfate reduction are two of the major biogeochemical processes that occur in anoxic sediments. Microbes that catalyze these reactions are therefore some of the most abundant organisms in the subsurface, and some of the most important. Due to the variety of mechanisms that microbes employ to derive energy from these reactions, including the use of soluble electron shuttles, the dynamics between iron- and sulfate-reducing populations under changing biogeochemical conditions still elude complete characterization. Here, we amended experimental bioreactors comprised of freshwater aquifer sediment with ferric iron, sulfate, acetate, and the model electron shuttle AQDS (9,10-anthraquinone-2,6-disulfonate) and monitored both the changing redox conditions as well as changes in the microbial community over time. The addition of the electron shuttle AQDS did increase the initial rate of Fe III reduction; however, it had little effect on the composition of the microbial community. Our results show that in both AQDS- and AQDS+ systems there was an initial dominance of organisms classified as Geobacter (a genus of dissimilatory Fe III -reducing bacteria), after which sequences classified as Desulfosporosinus (a genus of dissimilatory sulfate-reducing bacteria) came to dominate both experimental systems. Furthermore, most of the ferric iron reduction occurred under this later, ostensibly “sulfate-reducing” phase of the experiment. This calls into question the usefulness of classifying subsurface sediments by the dominant microbial process alone because of their interrelated biogeochemical consequences. To better inform models of microbially-catalyzed subsurface processes, such interactions must be more thoroughly understood under a broad range of conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Recommendations for Data-in-Transit Requirements for Securing DER Communications

With the adoption of Distributed Energy Resource (DER) interoperability standards, common communication protocols are now being deployed between power system operators and DER devices. In 2018, a revision to the US interconnection and interoperability standard, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Std. 1547, required DER equipment to have an IEEE 2030.5, IEEE 1815, or SunSpec Modbus communication exchange interface. This change supports the future transition to secure connection and exchange of information between the DER equipment and implementing parties, such as grid operators. Adoption of standardized communication protocols and associated information models is a critical step toward interoperability between power system operators and DER, such as photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage systems. However, security requirements for these standardized communication protocols are not comprehensive, resulting in non-standard and vendor-specific implementation that may leave DER equipment susceptible to cyberattacks. This paper examines the data-in-flight security requirements for standardized DER communication protocols, per IEEE 1547-2018 revision, as it relates to device authentication, key management, and encryption. The state of the art for these security features is also explored, addressing their impact on communication and performance of low-cost single board computers, which are typical of DER devices. In conclusion, a recommendation is provided to adopt a common set of communication requirements, which are intended to achieve interoperability and implement data security over DER network pathways, while ensuring reliable, secure, and real-time information delivery.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Thermolytic Hydrogen Generation Rate Models at High-Temperature/High-Hydroxide Regimes

This report describes the results of testing performed to extend the applicable ranges of temperature and hydroxide concentration for use within the Glycolate and Global Total Organic Carbon (TOC) Hydrogen Generation Rate (HGR) expressions. Seven experimental conditions (six simulants of the 242-25H Evaporator system chosen as a D-optimal set of experiments and a single test conducted at an elevated boiling point of 170 °C) were investigated in the presence of sodium glycolate and Xiameter TM AFE-1010. Glycolate was employed to study the extension of the Glycolate Thermolytic HGR expression while Xiameter TM AFE-1010 was employed to study the extension of the Global TOC Thermolytic HGR expression. The following conclusions were derived from this testing: The Glycolate Thermolytic HGR expression may be confidently used to predict thermolytic HGRs from glycolate at temperatures as high as 170 °C and hydroxide concentrations as high as 23 M.; The hydroxide and temperature-dependence predicted by the Global TOC Thermolytic HGR expression has been confirmed at temperatures as high as 170 °C and hydroxide concentrations as high as 23 M, suggesting that the Global TOC Thermolytic HGR expression may be used at these ranges.; Methane was observed from tests with Xiameter TM AFE-1010 at production rates higher than those observed for hydrogen. These rates were observed at temperatures higher than 100 °C.; Preliminary models suggest that increasing hydroxide/temperature causes an increase in Methane Generation Rate (MGR) from Xiameter TM AFE-1010. The following recommendations are based on this testing: The existing equations for thermolytic HGR from glycolate and non-glycolate organics should be used at Concentration, Storage, and Transfer Facilities (CSTF) storage and evaporation conditions, including temperatures and hydroxide concentrations exhibited in the 242-25H Evaporator.; Further investigation should be made into the influence of methylsilanes on CSTF flammability. This investigation should include: determination of the types of methylsilanes historically added to the CSTF, determination of methane formation rates from each type of methylsilane, and determination of the extent of degradation of methylsilanes in CSTF waste.; Characterization techniques should be developed by Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to assist in the speciation of methylsilane-containing waste in the CSTF.; Additional testing with radioactive waste should be performed to determine the MGRs possible in radioactive waste and better inform model predictions made from testing with simulants.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum information approach to the implementation of a neutron cavity

Abstract Using the quantum information model of dynamical diffraction we consider a neutron cavity composed of two perfect crystal silicon blades capable of containing the neutron wavefunction. We show that the internal confinement of the neutrons through Bragg diffraction can be modelled by a quantum random walk. Furthermore, we introduce a toolbox for modelling crystal imperfections such as surface roughness and defects. Good agreement is found between the simulation and the experimental implementation, where leakage beams are present, modelling of which is impractical with the conventional theory of dynamical diffraction. Analysis of the standing neutron waves is presented in regards to the crystal geometry and parameters; and the conditions required for well-defined bounces are derived. The presented results enable new approaches to studying the setups utilizing neutron confinement, such as the experiments to measure neutron magnetic and electric dipole moments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2026

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Capability Maturity Levels for Ecosystems Enabling Digital Transformation

Digital engineering (DE) and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) are widely recognized as critical enablers of faster, more affordable, and more reliable aerospace systems. However, many organizations have struggled to realize the promised return on investment (ROI) from digital initiatives. A primary reason is the absence of a shared, decision-focused framework that distinguishes simple digitization of existing workflows from true digital transformation that fundamentally changes how engineering decisions are made. This paper introduces an ICME capability maturity framework that fills this gap. The framework defines six cumulative ICME capability maturity levels (CMLs), explicitly tied to decision authority, engineering integration, optimization, and uncertainty management across material, process, structure, and performance scales. It is designed to complement established readiness metrics such as technology readiness levels (TRLs), manufacturing readiness levels (MRLs), and integration readiness levels (IRLs), by addressing a missing dimension: the conditions required for model-informed decision authority across scales. A unifying figure and capability table illustrate the six-level ICME Capability Maturity Framework, showing how organizations progress from digitization—with limited or negative ROI—to true digital transformation, where ICME-enabled workflows deliver measurable improvements in decision quality, cycle time, risk reduction, and reuse. The framework is intended for both technical practitioners and executive leadership, providing a common language to assess current state, guide roadmaps, align software ecosystem investments, and set realistic expectations for digital transformation outcomes. A regulatory-relevant statement clarifying the relationship between ICME capability and existing certification frameworks is provided.

ICME↗