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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Cool flame chemistry of diesel surrogate compounds: n -Decane, 2-methylnonane, 2,7-dimethyloctane, and n -butylcyclohexane

Elucidating the formation of combustion intermediates is crucial to validate reaction pathways, develop reaction mechanisms and examine kinetic modeling predictions. While high-temperature pyrolysis and oxidation intermediates of alkanes have been thoroughly studied, comprehensive analysis of cool flame intermediates from alkane autoxidation is lacking and challenging due to the complexity of intermediate species produced. Here, jet-stirred reactor autoxidation of four C 10 alkanes: n -decane, 2-methylnonane, 2,7-dimethyloctane, and n -butylcyclohexane, as model compounds of diesel fuel, was investigated from 500 to 630 K using synchrotron vacuum ultraviolet photoionization molecular beam mass spectrometry (SVUV-PIMS). Around 100 intermediates were detected for each fuel. The classes of molecular structures present during the autoxidation of the representative paraffinic functional groups in transport fuels, i.e., n -alkanes, branched alkanes, and cycloalkanes were established and were found to be similar from the oxidation of various alkanes. A theoretical approach was applied to estimate the photoionization cross sections of the intermediates with the same carbon skeleton as the reactants, e.g., alkene, alkenyl keto, cyclic ether, dione, keto-hydroperoxide, diketo-hydroperoxide, and keto-dihydroperoxide. These species are indicators of the first, second, and third O 2 addition reactions for the four C 10 hydrocarbons, as well as bimolecular reactions involving keto-hydroperoxides. Chemical kinetic models for the oxidation of these four fuels were examined by comparison against mole fraction of the reactants and final products obtained in additional experiments using gas chromatography analysis, as well as the detailed species pool and mole fractions of aforementioned seven types of intermediates measured by SVUV-PIMS. This works reveals that the models in the literature need to be improved, not only the prediction of the fuel reactivity and final products, but also the reaction network to predict the formation of many previous undetected intermediates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updated Filter Leak Frequencies for Use in Risk Assessments

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is highly dependent on data, leading to more robust models as new and updated data is acquired. The Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment (HyRAM+) QRA capabilities include calculations of individual risk from leaks in a gaseous hydrogen facility due to the potential effects of jet fires and explosions. Leak frequencies are acquired through statistical analysis of published data from a variety of sources and industries. The filter leak frequencies in previous versions of the HyRAM+ software are substantially greater than the leak frequencies of other components, leading to QRA results for gaseous hydrogen in which filters consistently dominate the overall risk. Data that were previously used to derive the filter leak frequencies were reevaluated for applicability and additional data points were added to update the filter leak frequencies. The new frequencies are more comparable to leak frequencies for other components.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing the Chemical Kinetics of Minimalist Functional Group Gasoline Surrogates

We report surrogate mixtures are routinely used for understanding gasoline fuel combustion in engine simulations. The general trend in surrogate formulation has been to increase the number of fuel components in a mixture to better emulate real fuel properties. Recently, a new surrogate design strategy based on functional group analysis of real gasolines was proposed using a minimal number of species [minimalist functional group (MFG)-approach]. MFG surrogates (having just one or two components) could experimentally capture the ignition delay time (IDT), threshold sooting index, and smoke point of different gasoline fuels with hundreds of components. However, other combustion characteristics were not explored, and kinetic modeling of MFG surrogates was not reported. These aspects are addressed in this paper, where the combustion behavior of MFG surrogates for various gasolines was assessed by simulating IDT, jet-stirred reactor oxidation, and premixed laminar flame speeds using chemical kinetic modeling. MFG simulations were compared with experimental data of the real gasolines as well as with the more complex multicomponent (five to nine species) surrogates. This study reveals that binary MFG surrogate mixtures are capable of accurately simulating the combustion behavior of more complex gasoline fuels with hundreds of components.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a CPU/GPU portable software library for Lagrangian–Eulerian simulations of liquid sprays

The Lagrangian–Eulerian method is widely used for simulations of fuel sprays in turbulent combustion because of the advantage of treating the spray droplets as discrete points. One challenge of the Lagrangian–Eulerian method is the intense computational requirement when tracking the large number of Lagrangian particles needed for high fidelity. We have developed a performance-portable library, Grit, to track the Lagrangian particles in parallel on central processing unit (CPU) and graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated high performance computing (HPC) architectures. Grit is a C++ library which employs Message Passing Interface (MPI) for distributed memory parallelism and Kokkos programming model for on-node shared memory parallelism with performance portability across different architectures of GPUs and multi-core/manycore CPUs. The parallel algorithms, key parallel kernels, and their performances on the pre-exascale supercomputer, Summit, are presented. Grit is coupled with a direct numerical simulation (DNS) solver, S3D, for multiphase simulations. A conservative formulation has been developed and implemented in Grit for phase coupling with thermodynamic consistency. The formulation separates the conservation of mass, momentum and energy from the physical models to prevent accidental violation of conservation laws due to inconsistent models. The formulation also enforces consistent definitions of enthalpies of the fuel for both phases and the latent heat of evaporation. Finally, simulations of turbulent particle-laden flow and the evaporation of dilute turbulent spray jet are performed to verify the software implementation, and to demonstrate the scalability of Grit for large-scale multiphase simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flame acceleration and transition to detonation in a pre-/main-chamber combustion system

Numerical simulations are performed to study the mechanism of deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) in a pre-/main-chamber combustion system with a stoichiometric ethylene–oxygen mixture. A Godunov algorithm, fifth-order in space, and third-order in time, is used to solve the fully compressible Navier–Stokes equations on a dynamically adapting mesh. A single-step, calibrated chemical diffusive model described by Arrhenius kinetics is used for energy release and conservation between the fuel and the product. The two-dimensional simulation shows that a laminar flame grows in the pre-chamber and then develops into a jet flame as it passes through the orifice. A strong shock forms immediately ahead of the flame, reflecting off the walls and interacting with the flame front. The shock–flame interactions are crucial for the development of flame instabilities, which trigger the subsequent flame development. The DDT arises due to a shock-focusing mechanism, where multiple shocks collide at the flame front. A chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) criterion is developed to study the DDT ignition mode. Preliminary one-dimensional computations for a laminar propagating flame, a fast flame deflagration, and a Chapman–Jouguet detonation are conducted to demonstrate the validity of CEMA on the chemical-diffusive model, as well as to determine the proper conditioning value for CEMA diagnostic. The two-dimensional analysis with CEMA indicates that the DDT initiated by the shock-focusing mechanism can form a strong thermal expansion region at the flame front that features large positive eigenvalues for the chemical explosive mode and dominance of the local autoignition mode. Thus, the CEMA criterion proposed in this study provides a robust diagnostic for identifying autoignition-supported DDT, of which the emergence of excessive local autoignition mode is found to be a precursor. The effect of grid size, initial temperature, and orifice size are then evaluated, and results show that although the close-chamber DDT is highly stochastic, the detonation initiation mechanism remains robust.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of the spray-induced wall stress acting on the ignition assistance device

This research introduces a novel wall-stress model called the Spray-Induced Wall Stress (SIWS) model, which considers the effects of spray-wall impingement and the resulting formation of wall stress within the Lagrangian spray modeling framework. The primary objective of this paper is to provide a mathematical description of the fundamental physics underlying the model. Subsequently, the proposed model is validated using existing experimental data. Here, the remainder of the study focuses on the practical application of the model to an ignition assistance device. Specifically, this device is installed in a compression ignition engine and designed to enhance ignition in aviation-fueled high-altitude aircraft propulsion systems. The research sheds light on the mechanical impulse caused by the high-speed impact of the spray jet, leading to the accumulation of mechanical stress on the rigid body of the ignition assistance device. Previous studies on fluid-structure interaction have only considered the interaction between the gas phase and the solid wall. However, the SIWS model incorporates the additional impact of the impinging liquid spray jet. Consequently, the simulated stress distribution on the ignition assistance device can be estimated by considering both the gas-phase-induced term and the spray-induced term simultaneously.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dispersion of cryogenic hydrogen through high-aspect ratio nozzles

Liquid hydrogen is increasingly being used as a delivery and storage medium for stations that provide compressed gaseous hydrogen for fuel cell electric vehicles. In efforts to provide scientific justification for separation distances for liquid hydrogen infrastructure in fire codes, the dispersion characteristics of cryogenic hydrogen jets (50–64 K) from high aspect ratio nozzles have been measured at 3 and 5 bar abs stagnation pressures. These nozzles are more characteristic of unintended leaks, which would be expected to be cracks, rather than conventional round nozzles. Spontaneous Raman scattering was used to measure the concentration and temperature field along the major and minor axes. Within the field of interrogation, the axis-switching phenomena was not observed, but rather a self-similar Gaussian-profile flow regime similar to room temperature or cryogenic hydrogen releases through round nozzles. The concentration decay rate and half-widths for the planar cryogenic jets were found to be nominally equivalent to that of round nozzle cryogenic hydrogen jets indicating a similar flammable envelope. The results from these experiments will be used to validate models for cryogenic hydrogen dispersion that will be used for simulations of alternative scenarios and quantitative risk assessment.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical investigation of a fueled pre-chamber spark-ignition natural gas engine

Pre-chamber spark-ignition (PCSI) is a leading advanced ignition concept for internal combustion engines with the potential to enable diesel-like efficiency in medium-duty/heavy-duty (MD/HD) natural gas (NG) engines. By leveraging distributed ignition sources from multiple turbulent jets, the PCSI technology can deliver extremely short combustion duration in ultra-lean mixtures and significantly improve the engine thermal efficiency. However, in the automotive industry there is a lack of adequate science base and predictive simulation tools required for commercial development of PCSI engines. Here, in this study, Reynolds-Average Navier-Stokes simulations are carried out to describe the combustion process in lean-burn NG engines, focusing on the combustion modeling approach. Two combustion models, multi-zone well-stirred reactor (MZ-WSR) and G-equation, are used to simulate the combustion process in an MD NG engine equipped with a fueled-PCSI system for four operating conditions close to the lean operating limit. A skeletal chemical mechanism and a laminar flame speed tabulation are used to compute the combustion accurately. Simulation results are compared with experimental data regarding measured cylinder pressure, heat release rate, and combustion duration. By dividing the PCSI combustion process into four distinct phases, the difference between the two models’ results for each phase is analyzed in detail. The MZ-WSR model overestimates the combustion duration for early flame kernel growth in the pre-chamber due to the lack of a specific formulation to take turbulence-chemistry interaction into account. Despite the prolonged combustion duration and low pressure built-up inside the pre-chamber, the model matches the combustion rate in the main-chamber. In contrast, the G-equation model delivers good agreements for the pre-chamber combustion and turbulent jet-driven combustion processes. However, the model starts to underestimate the combustion rate in the main-chamber, especially under ultra-lean mixture conditions. Finally, improvements are needed for both models to simulate the later combustion stage that occurred in the near-wall regions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design optimization for Richtmyer–Meshkov instability suppression at shock-compressed material interfaces

We report the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) is a phenomenon that occurs at the interface of two substances of different densities due to an impulsive acceleration, such as a shock wave passing through this interface. Under these conditions, the instability can be seen as interface perturbations begin to grow into narrow jets or spikes of one substance that propagate into the other. In some cases, this interface may involve an elastic–plastic material, which can play a significant role in the development and behavior of the RMI. The ability to effectively control RMI jetting and spike growth is one major limiting factor in technological challenges, such as inertial confinement fusion, that involve using high-pressure shock waves to implode a fuel target. The propagation of RMI growth can lead to increased asymmetry in this implosion process and significantly reduce the obtained energy yield. We use hydrodynamics simulations of impactor shock-compression experiments and methods based in design optimization to suppress RMI spike growth by altering the geometry and other properties of a shock-compressed elastic–plastic material target that shares an interface with atmospheric air. These hydrodynamics simulations use an arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian method with a high-order finite element approach. Our results demonstrate that RMI suppression can be achieved by intentionally creating a separate upstream interface instability to counteract the growth of long narrow RMI spikes at an interface with initial perturbations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adoption of biofuels for marine shipping decarbonization: A long‐term price and scalability assessment

Abstract This study assessed the long‐term annual biofuel production capacity potential and price in the United States and shed light on the prospect of biofuel adoption for marine propulsion. A linear programming model was developed to assist the projections and provide insightful analyses. The projected long‐term (2040) maximum annual capacity of biofuels in the United States is 245 million metric tons (Mt) or 65 billion gallons of heavy fuel oil gallon equivalent (HFOGE) when based on the median feedstock availability. Between 2022 (near‐term) and 2040, the potential biofuel capacity increases by over 40%, attributed to increased feedstock availability. At a price range up to $500/t, biodiesel is the main product, and the annual capacity (12 Mt) is limited to feedstock availability constraints. Biodiesel and corn ethanol are the main biofuels at a price range up to $750/t. At a higher price point (above $750/t), the biofuel types and annual capacities increase substantially (218 Mt per year). Biofuels above this price include gasoline‐, jet‐, and diesel‐range blendstocks, as well as bio‐methanol, bio‐propane, and biogas. This study concludes that the US domestic feedstock availability coupled with advanced conversion technologies can produce substantial amounts of biofuels to achieve a critical mass and be impactful as alternative marine fuels. There is also a need to improve the biofuel price for marine shipping adoption. Policies and economic incentives that provide temporary financial support would help facilitate maritime biofuel adoption. © 2022 Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid combustion modeling approach for turbulent jet ignition in natural-gas pre-chamber spark-ignition engines at high EGR

Here, this study presented a hybrid modeling approach for simulating turbulent jet ignition and combustion processes in a natural-gas pre-chamber spark-ignition engine operating under exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) diluted conditions. In-depth analyses of experimental data and simulation results from previous work [Chinnathambi et al., ICEF2021-67836; Kim et al., Fuel 409: 137815, 2026] revealed two key findings: (i) the magnitude of pressure difference between the pre-chamber and main chamber ($∆P_{PC-MC}$) was positively correlated with the combustion duration from the moment of $∆P_{PC-MC}=0$ to the point of 5% mass fraction burned, with larger $∆P_{PC-MC}$ associated with longer duration; and (ii) the turbulent combustion regime in the main chamber transitioned from the broken reaction zone to the corrugated flamelet regime, with the Karlovitz number exceeding 100 immediately after turbulent hot jets were ejected from nozzles, coinciding with observed local extinction events. To accurately simulate the entire combustion process, a hybrid approach was developed under Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes framework, combining the G-equation model for pre-chamber combustion with the multi-zone well-stirred reactor approach and a turbulence-chemistry interaction (TCI) submodel for main chamber combustion. The TCI submodel accounted for the attenuation of reaction rates due to turbulent strain and modeled local extinction by suppressing reaction rates under certain flow and flame conditions. When applied to three EGR rate conditions toward the dilution limit, the hybrid modeling approach accurately reproduced experimental data in terms of cylinder pressure, apparent heat release rate, and the observed positive correlation, including the delayed onset of main chamber combustion—a feature not captured by existing combustion models.

computational fluid dynamics simulation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of post-injection strategies for diesel engine Catalyst Heating Operation using a vapor-liquid-equilibrium-based spray model

Most multidimensional engine simulations spend much time solving for non-equilibrium spray dynamics (atomization, collision, vaporization). However, their accuracy is limited by significant grid dependency, and the need for extensive calibration. This is critical for modeling cold-start diesel fuel post injections, which occur at low temperatures and pressures, far from typical model validation ranges. At the same time, resolving micron-scale spray phenomena would render full Eulerian multiphase calculations prohibitive. In this study, an improved phase equilibrium based approach was implemented and assessed for simulating diesel catalyst heating operation strategies. A phase equilibrium solver based on the model by Yue and Reitz [1] was implemented: a fully multiphase CFD solver is employed with an engineering-size engine grid, and fuel injection is modeled using the standard Lagrangian parcels approach. Mass and energy from the liquid parcels are released to the Eulerian multiphase mixture according to an equilibrium-based liquid jet model. An improved phase equilibrium solver was developed to handle large real-gas mixtures such as those from accurate chemical kinetics mechanisms. The liquid-jet model was improved such that momentum transfer to the Eulerian solver better reproduces the physical spray jet structure. Validation of liquid/vapor penetration predictions showed that the model yields accurate results with very limited tuning and low sensitivity to the few calibration constants. In-cylinder simulations of diesel catalyst heating operation strategies showed that capturing spray structure is paramount when short, transient injection pulses and low temperatures are present. Furthermore, the EP model provides improved predictions of post-injection spray structure and ignitability, while conventional spray modeling does not capture the increase of liquid penetration during the expansion stroke. Finally, the only important EP model calibration constant, Cliq, does not affect momentum transfer, but it changes the local charge cooling distribution through the local energy transfer, which makes it candidate to additional research. The results confirm that non-equilibrium spray processes do not need to be resolved in engineering simulations of high-pressure diesel sprays.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A numerical study of an atomizing jet in a resonant acoustic field

By applying state-of-the-art, high-fidelity methods for compressible multiphase flows, this work features a parametric study of a turbulent liquid jet atomizing under the influence of standing acoustic waves with five different amplitude values. We perform these simulations in a semi-periodic domain to isolate interactions between acoustic and atomization processes and to emulate a pure liquid fuel spray placed at the pressure node of a resonant acoustic field. Characterization of the flow includes measurements of the mean dimensions, droplet number, and surface area of the liquid distribution, alongside qualitative depictions of the interface evolution, breakup events, and hydrodynamic fields. As acoustic forcing is provided to the flow, the added energy provokes atomization when shear would otherwise be insufficient for breakup. The magnitude of the forcing determines the rate of droplet production, which accelerates as the evolving liquid surface modifies the induced motion of the gas phase. At the nodal plane, the acoustic field produces an organizing effect on the liquid structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Oxy-Coal Swirl Injector

The article presents the design and testing of a coal-slurry swirl-pintle injector for high pressure oxy-coal combustion systems. Pressurized oxy-coal combustion-based systems have the potential to improve efficiency by recovering latent heat of the steam in flue gas and achieve 90% CO2 capture. In oxy-coal combustion, coal is burned in the presence of pure oxygen, which results in higher efficiency and less greenhouse gas in the exhaust. With the advancement of pressurized oxy-coal combustor research, there is a need to investigate injector technology suitable for this unique combustion approach. Effective atomization and mixing of coal-slurry and oxidizer pose a challenge for the efficient burning of coal particles. A swirl-pintle type injector was designed and tested to enhance the atomization of the coal-water slurry spray by adding a swirl to the oxygen flow path. Although pintle type injectors are traditionally used in rocket engines, they present a promising approach in clean coal combustion technology due to higher mixing effectiveness and enhanced performance. The mixing behavior of three pintle injectors with different swirl numbers (S = 0, 0.9, and 1.2) was tested using a high-speed shadow sizing technique. Mixture ratios of 30% (by mass) coal-water slurry were studied. The droplet diameter and dispersion characteristics were determined from shadow images of coal-water spray. The jet breakup length, droplet number, total moment ratio (TMR), and Ohnesorge number were then calculated to compare the performance of different injectors. The paper presents an empirical correlation of the TMR with droplet size and spray regimes. For a pintle injector with S = 1.2 swirler, the droplets diameter was found to be in the range of 1 mm to 12 mm. The jet breakup length was also shorter in comparison to S= 0 and 0.9 injectors. A second atomization zone was also observed at 2 and 5 diameters downstream of injector exist at spray edge and jet core respectively

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 5.0 Technical Reference Manual

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, natural gas, and autogas systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying leak sizes and rates, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 5.0. The most significant change for HyRAM+ version 5.0 from HyRAM+ version 4.1 is the ability to model blends of different fuels. HyRAM+ was previously only suitable for use with hydrogen, methane, or propane, with users having the ability to use methane as a proxy for natural gas and propane as a proxy for autogas/liquefied petroleum gas. In version 5.0, real natural gas or autogas compositions can be modeled as the fuel, or even blends of natural gas with hydrogen. These blends can be used in the standalone physics models, but not yet in the quantitative risk assessment mode of HyRAM+.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 5.1 Technical Reference Manual

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, natural gas, and autogas systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying leak sizes and rates, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 5.1. The most significant changes for HyRAM+ version 5.1 from HyRAM+ version 5.0 are updated default leak frequency values for propane, new default component counts for different fuel types, and an improved fuel specification view in the graphical user interface.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Markets and Economic Requirements for Fission Batteries and Other Nuclear Systems

Fission Batteries (FBs) are nuclear reactors defined by five characteristics which enable large-scale deployment: cost competitive, standardized sizes for economic mass production, easy installation and removal, secure and safe unattended operation with high reliability. FBs are not defined by technology or power level. Technical and market considerations suggest that most FBs will produce 20 to 30 MWt. This proceedings reports on the outcomes of two workshops that were held in January 2021 to better define markets and economic challenges for FBs. Three major markets were identified. The largest market is the industrial and commercial heat market. There are about 4000 industrial users (excluding utilities) that require more than one megawatt of heat. The number of customers versus size of heat demand was determined. In a low-carbon world there is the potential for many additional customers—including expanded biofuels production and district heat. The second market is for non-grid electricity. This includes co-generation plants that produce heat and electricity for a single customer. The third market is the maritime market with ~100,000 ships worldwide. In the United States, natural gas is the low-cost energy option today and will remain so unless constraints or taxes impact its use. If restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, the FB competition includes natural gas with carbon capture, biofuels, hydrogen and grid electricity. Natural gas with carbon capture is not economically viable on a small scale. Biofuels may be expensive but may be the economically preferred option for locations with small energy demands of a few megawatts. Hydrogen is a potential competitor with many of the characteristics of natural gas. Grid electricity is not a competitive source of heat. For FBs to be economically competitive, the price of delivered heat must be $20-50/MWh ($6-15/million BTU). The economically competitive range for non-grid electricity is estimated at $70-100/MWh. These electricity prices are competitive with the retail prices of electricity in many parts of the United States for the customer. FBs are not expected to be competitive selling wholesale electricity to the grid. To achieve the aforementioned cost targets for heat and electricity markets, FB designers must (1) maximize the power output within the constraints of a FB (e.g., truck transportability, passive decay heat removal), (2) drastically reduce the size of onsite staff, (3) adopt core designs with low fuel costs (enrichment and fabrication), and (4) develop a system design that is efficiently manufactured in factories. The business case depends upon more than being just a replacement for natural gas. The largest incentives for adoption of FBs is where they create new markets and new sources of revenue. An example is the paper and pulp industry that burns biomass wastes to provide heat and electricity to make paper. An external heat source could meet the demand for heat and electricity by the paper process and enable converting waste biomass into liquid biofuels rather than burning to provide heat. Other markets, such as data centers, are driven by special energy requirements such as extreme reliability. Most customers are not in the energy business but need heat and electricity to produce a product—a manufactured good, education, retail sales (shopping malls), marine transport or some other product. As a consequence, there will be large incentives to lease rather than own FBs. Leasing avoids the regulatory challenges that remain with the owner of the FB. Leasing creates large incentives for FP standardization of sizes and transportability to maintain the value of the FB at the end of the lease—similar to the leasing of jet engines and aircraft. The economic constraints combined with technical constraints suggest competitive FBs will likely have outputs exceeding 10 MWt. There appear to be little incentives for very long-lived reactor cores because such machines require much larger inventories of fuel. Maintenance requirements and the options to provide technology updates may favor shorter lifetimes (~5 years). The assessment is that there is the potential for FBs to be economically viable and play a major role in global decarbonization in three markets: heat, non-grid electricity and maritime applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗