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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent System Identification Research at NASA Langley Research Center

This talk summarizes some of the recent advances in system identification at NASA Langley Research Center. Efforts discussed were applied to aeroelastic models, aircraft with redundant inputs and feedback control active, and aircraft flying in turbulence. Topics mentioned include experiment design with orthogonal multisine inputs, frequency response estimation, maximum likelihood parameter estimation, and parameter estimation considering process noise.

NASA LaRC↗
NASA NTRS2022

Enabling a Larger Deep Space Mission Suite: A Deep Space Network Queuing Antenna for Demand Access

The advent of deep space small spacecraft, as exemplified by the Mars Cubesat One (MarCO), Lunar Trailblazer, Janus, the Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (EscaPADE), and the thirteen Artemis 1 missions, opens the possibility that a much larger number of deep space spacecraft may be launched over the next 10 years and beyond. While scientifically exciting, the prospect of a (much) larger mission suite raises significant challenges for the current approach to ground stations and mission operations. We have been investigating an integrated approach for ground stations and missions operations to enable new modes of operation while maintaining the capabilities of the current operational techniques. This integrated approach is built around three core capabilities: (1) A queuing antenna that enables monitoring the status of a much larger number of spacecraft, and allows spacecraft to transmit requests for telemetry with NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN); (2) a flexible scheduling system that expands the current DSN scheduling services to enable allocating time on DSN antennas in near real-time; and (3) a cloud-based ground data system that can be spun up and down according to how tracks are assigned by the flexible scheduling system. We shall show that an 18 meter DSN queuing antenna equipped with cyrogenic receivers would enable use of the DSN Demand Access Service for small spacecraft throughout the inner Solar System, thus providing service to a large mission suite. We first discuss the architecture of the queuing antenna and its supporting systems, including, for instance, the service required to generate the schedule for the queueing antenna (which dictates how it slews to monitor multiple spacecraft in a day of operations). Next, we describe the signaling scheme used to encode a request, which is inherited from the already operational DSN Beacon Tone Service, and describe two alternative ways to detect the incoming tone at the ground station, one based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and another one based on Fast-Fourier Transfer (FFT) processing. We then use these results to estimate the maximum range at which a request can be reliably detected as a function of the spacecraft and ground station communication capabilities. Finally, the last part of this part of this paper briefly describes the prototyping effort undertaken at Morehead State University (MSU) and JPL to demonstrate the viability of this new DSN demand access. In particular, we describe the suite of tests conducted using MSU’s 21 meter ground station to validate its use a queuing antenna.

Mattle, Emily↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Velocity and Temperature Measurements in High-speed Flows with Naturally Present Dust Particles Using Rayleigh and Mie Scattering

Dust particles and occasional moisture condensations are unavoidable reality of all wind tunnels. On the path to pursue a goal of velocity and temperature measurements in large transonic and supersonic wind tunnels we have created a tabletop, spectrally resolved, Rayleigh-Mie scattering setup around a small jet fed by ambient and lightly seeded air to determine the viability and accuracy of the technique. The other reality of a wind tunnel setup is the background scattering or the glare at laser frequency, which contaminates the Rayleigh-Mie scattered light. This is simulated by backgrounds with different reflectivity towards the collection optics. Light from a CW laser is delivered via an optical fiber and the scattered light is spectrally resolved using a stabilized Fabry-Perot interferometer, followed by imaging on an EMCCD camera. A model of the of the combined background glare, Mie scattering, and the Rayleigh spectrum was fitted to the camera image using maximum likelihood estimation. Since the background glare occurs at the known frequency of the incident light and the Mie scattering peak corresponds to the Doppler shift from the bulk velocity, both were easily identified, and provided a measure of flow velocity. Preliminary results show that the Rayleigh spectrum can also be resolved, which provides a measure of temperature. It is observed that a slight drift of the laser frequency during data collection affected fitting of the model function leading to larger error. A feedback loop-based stabilization system is on development to take advantage of slight tunability of the laser via a piezo-control. Preliminary results are presented in the abstract. More extensive data from a systematic survey will be presented in the final paper.

Rayleigh scattering↗
NASA NTRS2024

Alignment of NASA’s Human System Risks with Technological Capability Gaps to Enable Integrated Research and Technology Development Strategic Planning

BACKGROUND: Radiation, reduced gravity, distance from earth, isolation and confinement, and habitation within artificially created and controlled life support environments are hazards that present risk to human space explorers. NASA’s Human System Risk Board (HSRB) maintains a set of twenty-nine different Human System Risks with subject matter experts from across the agency providing regular updates to the estimated likelihood and consequence associated with each risk. The Human Research Program (HRP) has historically used these risk classifications as a primary basis for identifying and prioritizing human research investments aimed at characterizing and/or mitigating the respective human system risks. In many cases, technology development is required to mature and validate risk mitigation strategies, however, NASA’s primary technology development programs have not typically used Human System Risks as a basis for strategic planning. A primary function of the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) – Crew Health and Performance (CHP) System Capability Leadership Team (SCLT) is to continually identify, review, and update technological capability gaps and to establish and oversee multiyear strategic roadmaps aimed at guiding NASA’s technology development priorities in these areas. These roadmaps are intended to be agency-wide and independent of any program, directorate, or other organization within NASA. DESCRIPTION: The SCLT and HRP collaborated to establish a set of Human System Capability Gaps, which establish a formal linkage between the capability gaps used to prioritize investments across much of NASA, and the Human System Risks that are primarily used to inform and prioritize human research. This set of twenty-eight gaps was developed by subject matter experts, and each gap mapped to the primary associated Human System Risks. The gaps and risk mapping were then reviewed and approved via the HSRB, thereby formally aligning the research-focused Human System Risks with the technology-focused capability gaps. DISCUSSION: This effort has enabled development of integrated roadmaps and budget coordination with research and technology development activities that are formally linked to agency-recognized capability gaps and Human System Risks. Close and ongoing coordination between the SCLT, HRP, Mars Campaign Office, and the Health & Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) is essential to ensure alignment and prioritization of CHP-related research and technology development to enable NASA’s future exploration missions.

Andrew F J Abercromby↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Velocity and Temperature Measurements in High-speed Flows with Naturally Present Dust Particles Using Rayleigh and Mie Scattering

Dust particles and occasional moisture condensations are unavoidable reality of all wind tunnels. On the path to pursue a goal of velocity and temperature measurements in high-speed wind tunnels we have created a tabletop, spectrally resolved, Rayleigh-Mie scattering setup around a small jet fed by ambient and air with different particle concentration to determine the accuracy of the technique. The other reality of a wind tunnel setup is the spurious reflection and scattering of the incident laser beam by solid surfaces (flare light), which contaminates the Rayleigh-Mie scattered light. This is simulated by backgrounds with different reflectivity towards the collection optics. Light from a CW laser is delivered via an optical fiber and the scattered light from a point on the laser path is spectrally resolved using a stabilized Fabry-Perot interferometer, followed by imaging on an EMCCD camera. A model of the combined background glare, Mie scattering, and the Rayleigh spectrum was fitted to the camera image using maximum likelihood estimation. It was observed that the present modeling approach can extract velocity and temperature with reasonable accuracy when the intensity of the Mie scattered light is less than or comparable to that of the Rayleigh scattered light; beyond that error in velocity measurement remains reasonable ±12m/s but the temperature measurement becomes progressively more inaccurate. Increasingly the flare light is found to cause a bias error in velocity. Similar trend is observed in the presence of both the flare light and the Mie scattered light. The setup has provided a set of data for the future improvement of the modeling procedure, and demonstrated that even in the case of large amount of dust particles and large flare light the present technique can provide measurement of velocity with reasonable accuracy.

Rayleigh scattering↗
NASA NTRS1980

Maximum likelihood method for estimating airplane stability and control parameters from flight data in frequency domain

A frequency domain maximum likelihood method is developed for the estimation of airplane stability and control parameters from measured data. The model of an airplane is represented by a discrete-type steady state Kalman filter with time variables replaced by their Fourier series expansions. The likelihood function of innovations is formulated, and by its maximization with respect to unknown parameters the estimation algorithm is obtained. This algorithm is then simplified to the output error estimation method with the data in the form of transformed time histories, frequency response curves, or spectral and cross-spectral densities. The development is followed by a discussion on the equivalence of the cost function in the time and frequency domains, and on advantages and disadvantages of the frequency domain approach. The algorithm developed is applied in four examples to the estimation of longitudinal parameters of a general aviation airplane using computer generated and measured data in turbulent and still air. The cost functions in the time and frequency domains are shown to be equivalent; therefore, both approaches are complementary and not contradictory. Despite some computational advantages of parameter estimation in the frequency domain, this approach is limited to linear equations of motion with constant coefficients.

Klein, V.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Procedure for estimating stability and control parameters from flight test data by using maximum likelihood methods employing a real-time digital system

A maximum likelihood parameter estimation procedure and program were developed for the extraction of the stability and control derivatives of aircraft from flight test data. Nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom equations describing aircraft dynamics were used to derive sensitivity equations for quasilinearization. The maximum likelihood function with quasilinearization was used to derive the parameter change equations, the covariance matrices for the parameters and measurement noise, and the performance index function. The maximum likelihood estimator was mechanized into an iterative estimation procedure utilizing a real time digital computer and graphic display system. This program was developed for 8 measured state variables and 40 parameters. Test cases were conducted with simulated data for validation of the estimation procedure and program. The program was applied to a V/STOL tilt wing aircraft, a military fighter airplane, and a light single engine airplane. The particular nonlinear equations of motion, derivation of the sensitivity equations, addition of accelerations into the algorithm, operational features of the real time digital system, and test cases are described.

Grove, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A comparison of minimum distance and maximum likelihood techniques for proportion estimation

The estimation of mixing proportions P sub 1, P sub 2,...P sub m in the mixture density f(x) = the sum of the series P sub i F sub i(X) with i = 1 to M is often encountered in agricultural remote sensing problems in which case the p sub i's usually represent crop proportions. In these remote sensing applications, component densities f sub i(x) have typically been assumed to be normally distributed, and parameter estimation has been accomplished using maximum likelihood (ML) techniques. Minimum distance (MD) estimation is examined as an alternative to ML where, in this investigation, both procedures are based upon normal components. Results indicate that ML techniques are superior to MD when component distributions actually are normal, while MD estimation provides better estimates than ML under symmetric departures from normality. When component distributions are not symmetric, however, it is seen that neither of these normal based techniques provides satisfactory results.

Woodward, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

An Estimate of the Likelihood for a Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruption Within the Present Decade (2000-2009)

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (i.e., those having a volcanic explosivity index, or VEI, equal to 4 or larger) per decade is found to span 2-11, with 96% located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, A two-point moving average of the time series has higher values since the 1860s than before, measuring 8.00 in the 1910s (the highest value) and measuring 6.50 in the 1980s, the highest since the 18 1 0s' peak. On the basis of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that the two-point moving average for the 1990s will measure about 6.50 +/- 1.00, implying that about 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially, those having VEI equal to 5 or larger) nearly always have been associated with episodes of short-term global cooling, the occurrence of even one could ameliorate the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more VEI equal to 4 or larger events occurring within the next ten years is >99%, while it is about 49% for VEI equal to 5 or larger events and 18% for VEI equal to 6 or larger events. Hence, the likelihood that a, climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next 10 years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Estimating residual fault hitting rates by recapture sampling

For the recapture debugging design introduced by Nayak (1988) the problem of estimating the hitting rates of the faults remaining in the system is considered. In the context of a conditional likelihood, moment estimators are derived and are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Fixed sample properties of the moment estimators are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators. Properties of the conditional model are investigated such as the asymptotic distribution of linear functions of the fault hitting frequencies and a representation of the full data vector in terms of a sequence of independent random vectors. It is assumed that the residual hitting rates follow a log linear rate model and that the testing process is truncated when the gaps between the detection of new errors exceed a fixed amount of time.

Lee, Larry↗
NASA NTRS1979

Parameter estimation in X-ray astronomy using maximum likelihood

Methods of estimation of parameter values and confidence regions by maximum likelihood and Fisher efficient scores starting from Poisson probabilities are developed for the nonlinear spectral functions commonly encountered in X-ray astronomy. It is argued that these methods offer significant advantages over the commonly used alternatives called minimum chi-squared because they rely on less pervasive statistical approximations and so may be expected to remain valid for data of poorer quality. Extensive numerical simulations of the maximum likelihood method are reported which verify that the best-fit parameter value and confidence region calculations are correct over a wide range of input spectra.

Wachter, K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Use of robust estimators in parametric classifiers

The parametric approach to density estimation and classifier design is a well studied subject. The parametric approach is desirable because basically it reduces the problem of classifier design to that of estimating a few parameters for each of the pattern classes. The class parameters are usually estimated using maximum-likelihood (ML) estimators. ML estimators are, however, very sensitive to the presence of outliers. Several robust estimators of mean and covariance matrix and their effect on the probability of error in classification are examined. Comments are made about alpha-ranked (alpha-trimmed) estimators.

Safavian, S. Rasoul↗