Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “long-term prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 361 records · Page 20

Photo-recovery of electron-irradiated GaAs solar cells

The first long-term (3000 hours) UV testing of unirradiated and 1 MeV electron-irradiated GaAs solar cells, with multilayer-coated coverslides to reduce solar array operating temperature, has produced some unexpected and important results. Two results, independent of the coverslide coatings, are of particular importance in terms of the predictability of GaAs solar-array lifetime in space: ( 1) The GaAs/Ge solar cells used for this series of tests displayed a much higher radiation degradation than that predicted based on JPL Solar Cell Radiation Handbook data. Covered cells degraded more in Isc than did bare cells. Short-term illumination at 60 C did not produce significant recovery (-1%) of the radiation damage. (2) However, electron radiation damage to these GaAs solar celIs anneals at 40 C when exposed to approximately 1 sun AM0 UV light sources for extended periods. The effect appears to be roughly linear with time (-1% of lsc per 1000 UVSH), is large (greater than or equal to 3%), and has not yet saturated (at 3000 hours). This photo-recovery of radiation damage to GaAs solar cells is a new effect and potentially important to the spacecraft community. The figure compares the effects of extended UV on irradiated and unirradiated GaAs solar cells with INTELSAT-6 Si cells. The effect and its generality, the extent of and conditions for photo-recovery, and the implications of such recovery for missions in radiation environments have not yet been determined.

Meulenberg, Andrew↗

Remote Sensing and Holocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCM's) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are shortterm records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCM's must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. An appropriate timeframe should extend over the Holocene period (the last 10,000 years) when most contemporary climate and environmental processes began. Since its inception in 1916, pollen analysis has successfully reconstructed the paleoecology of the last 10,000 years for many sites around the world, thus providing a powerful time-link between short- and long-term processes in the biosphere. However, pollen analytic results cannot be used in physiological models driven by remotely sensed data. Further, modern ecology and climate data are necessary to calibrate pollen analytical models. These are available for extensive regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly for eastern United States and Canada, and western Europe. In other parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe. This is the case of Patagonia in Argentina where a few weather stations are located close to the Atlantic seaports, fewer stations are in towns located near the eastern Andean foothill, and fewer still are scattered on the extensive Patagonian plateau. This problem became evident after completion of the Argentine-German Program of Palynology (PROPAL), a cooperative effort of National University of Mar del Plata (Argentina) and University Bamberg (Germany) to produce a modern pollen database for the Pampa and Patagonia regions.

DAntoni, Hector↗

Space Logistics: Launch Capabilities

The current maximum launch capability for the United States are shown. The predicted Earth-to-orbit requirements for the United States are presented. Contrasting the two indicates the strong National need for a major increase in Earth-to-orbit lift capability. Approximate weights for planned payloads are shown. NASA is studying the following options to meet the need for a new heavy-lift capability by mid to late 1990's: (1) Shuttle-C for near term (include growth versions); and (2) the Advanced Lauching System (ALS) for the long term. The current baseline two-engine Shuttle-C has a 15 x 82 ft payload bay and an expected lift capability of 82,000 lb to Low Earth Orbit. Several options are being considered which have expanded diameter payload bays. A three-engine Shuttle-C with an expected lift of 145,000 lb to LEO is being evaluated as well. The Advanced Launch System (ALS) is a potential joint development between the Air Force and NASA. This program is focused toward long-term launch requirements, specifically beyond the year 2000. The basic approach is to develop a family of vehicles with the same high reliability as the Shuttle system, yet offering a much greater lift capability at a greatly reduced cost (per pound of payload). The ALS unmanned family of vehicles will provide a low end lift capability equivalent to Titan IV, and a high end lift capability greater than the Soviet Energia if requirements for such a high-end vehicle are defined.In conclusion, the planning of the next generation space telescope should not be constrained to the current launch vehicles. New vehicle designs will be driven by the needs of anticipated heavy users.

Furnas, Randall B.↗

NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data. This committee emphasized that the only feasible way to collect these consistent, long-term data is through the use of space-based Earth "remote sensors" (instruments that can measure from a distance things like temperature).

King, Michael D.↗

The Influence of Extremely Large Solar Proton Events in a Changing Stratosphere. Stratospheric Influence of Solar Proton Events

Two periods of extremely large solar proton events (SPEs) occurred in the past thirty years, which forced significant long-term polar stratospheric changes. The August 2-10, 1972 and October 19-27, 1989 SPEs happened in stratospheres that were quite different chemically. The stratospheric chlorine levels were relatively small in 1972 (approximately 1.2 ppbv) and were fairly substantial in 1989 at about (approximately 3 ppbv). Although these SPEs produced both HO(x) and NO(y) constituents in the mesosphere and stratosphere, only the NO(y) constituents had lifetimes long enough to affect ozone for several months to years past the events. Our recently improved two-dimensional chemistry and transport atmospheric model was used to compute the effects of these gigantic SPEs in a changing stratosphere. Significant upper stratospheric ozone depletions > 10% are computed to last for a few months past these SPEs. The long-lived SPE-produced NO(y) constituents were transported to lower levels during winter after these huge SPEs and caused impacts in the middle and lower stratosphere. During periods of high halogen loading these impacts resulted in interference with the chlorine and bromine loss cycles for ozone destruction. The chemical state of the atmosphere, including the stratospheric sulfate aerosol density, substantially affected the predicted stratospheric influence of these extremely large SPEs.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Mechanism-based Modeling of Long-term Degradation

The use of composites in high temperature, long lifetime applications requires a basic understanding of composite degradation mechanisms, advances in analytical capabilities, and accurate accelerated and scaled tests. To advance all of these goals, models are proposed based on a variety of fundamental material mechanisms. Thermal, oxygen, and moisture diffusion, chemical reactions, composite micromechanics; modified laminated plate theory, and future mechanics based damage models are used. All models attempt to stay as simple and fundamental as possible. All are coupled, so that interactions between various effects are modeled implicitly. Ongoing efforts at MIT are reviewed here, with some reference to other work, but no attempt is made to do a comprehensive review. Mechanism based models are yielding understanding of the mechanisms behind observed degradation phenomena, are helping to design accelerated tests, and are the first steps towards a predictive capability.

McManus, H. L.↗

Site Selection for Mars Exopaleontology in 2001

The microbial fossil record encompasses a wide range of information, including cellular remains, stromatolites, biofabrics, trace fossils, biominerals and chemofossils. The preservation of fossils is strongly influenced by the physical, chemical and biological factors of the environment which, acting together, ultimately determine the types of information that will be captured and retained in the rock record. The critical factor in assessing the suitability of a site for a microbial fossil record is the paleoenvironment. The reconstruction of ancient sedimentary environments usually requires the integration of a wide variety of geological information, including the shape, geometry and internal structure of sedimentary deposits, their mineralogy, and geochemistry. For Mars, much of our knowledge about past environments is based on orbital imaging of geomorphic features. This evidence provides an important context and starting point for site selection. However, our knowledge of the martian surface is quite limited, and a major goal of the upcoming exploration effort is to reconstruct the history of Martian volatiles, climate, and hydrology as a context for the exploration for past or present life. Mineralogical mapping from orbit will be an important key in this effort. In exploring for evidence of past life, terrestrial experience suggests that the long-term preservation of biological information as fossils occurs under a fairly narrow range of geological conditions that are well known to paleontologists (1). In detrital sedimentary systems, microbial fossilization is favored by rapid burial in fine-grained, clay-rich sediments. In chemical sedimentary systems, preservation is enhanced by rapid entombment in fine-grained chemical precipitates. For long term preservation, host rocks must be composed of stable minerals that resist chemical weathering, and which form an impermeable matrix and closed chemical system that can protect biosignatures from alteration during subsequent diagenetic change or metamorphism. In this context, host rocks composed of highly ordered, chemically-stable mineral phases, like silica (forming cherts) or phosphate (forming phosphorites), are especially favored. Such lithologies tend to have very long crustal residence times and (along with carbonates and shales), are the most common host rocks for the Precambrian microfossil record on Earth. If we assume that a subsurface hydrosphere has been present throughout martian history, then life could have originated there at any time, perhaps emerging at the surface periodically when climate changes, induced by external forcing or endogenous processes (e.g. volcanism), allowed liquid water to exist at the surface. The recent discovery of subsurface chemolithoautotrophic organisms which are capable of synthesizing organic substrates from C02 and H2 liberated from the aqueous weathering of basalt, is especially. relevant as a model for martian life. While a subsurface habitable zone may yet exist on Mars, access to such environments will likely require drilling to depths of several kilometers. Given the technological challenge of deep drilling, this is unlikely to occur prior to human missions. So, even if there is extant life on Mars today in subsurface habitats, it may be much easier to find its fossil counterparts in ancient deposits exposed at the surface. In exploring for a fossil record in subsurface environments on Mars there are several geological situations that may provide access to the appropriate materials. These include 1) ejecta from impact craters, 2) talus slopes, debris flows or alluvial fans developed below the walls of deep canyons, and 3) the deposits of outflood channels. Examples of aqueous mineral deposits of formed in subsurface environments that could harbor a microbial fossil record include such things as cements in detrital sedimentary rocks, low temperature diagenetic minerals deposited in veins, or filling vesicles in volcanic rocks, and hydrothermal deposits formed below the upper temperature limit for life (about 160 degrees C). There are many sites within the present latitudinal constraints for the 2001 mission (15 deg S to 30 deg N) that meet these requirements. But the practical problem with these kinds of deposits is that they tend to be disseminated, making up only a small percentage of a host rock. Even with mineralogical information provided by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) presently in orbit around Mars, predicting their occurrence ahead of time may be quite difficult. The deposits of surficial aqueous sedimentary systems are likely to provide the largest targets for site selection in 2001. Of these, the deposits of hydrothermal systems (subaerial and subaqueous thermal springs) have been discussed previously. It is likely that hydrothermal systems were widespread on Mars early in its history and a number of common geo-tectonic settings on Mars are likely to have hosted hydrothermal activity. Most of these are represented within the latitudinal constraints presently identified for 2001. However, the deposits of surface spring systems are likely to be difficult to find as well. On Earth, exposure areas for hydrothermal spring mounds are typically a few square kms, less than a single TES pixel. But such deposits may be quite abundant within some volcanic terrains, It is estimated, for example, that between 15-20% of the floor of Yellowstone caldera is covered by thermal spring deposits. In such abundances, subaerial sinters could well be detected by TES. Where exposed, the shallow subsurface portions of these systems may be quite a lot larger (perhaps tens of square kms), although (as noted above) mineralization may be finely disseminated in the basement rock, making remote detection more difficult. Paleolake Basins. There are a large number of potential paleolake basins on Mars (inclusive of impact craters and volcanic calderas) that have been previously identified using Viking images. Most of these lie in the southern highlands beyond the l5 deg S constraint for 2001. However, deposits of paleolakes may offer the largest and most easily identified exopaleontological targets from orbit. Based on a variety of arguments, some workers have suggested that there was once an ancient ocean on the northern plains, and some sites of interest (potential shoreline terraces) fall within the 30 deg N constraint. From a paleontological standpoint the most interesting places of this type are terminal paleolake basins which are likely to have been both saline and alkaline. Models by Schaefer suggest such environments could be widespread on Mars. The conditions in terminal lake basin settings favor widespread chemical sedimentation, an important condition for microbial fossilization. Important lithological targets for a microbial fossil record in terminal lake basins include spring-deposited carbonates, shoreline cements, a wide variety of evaporite minerals and fine-grained detrital sediments including shales, marls, and water-lain volcanic ash deposits. In developing a strategy to explore for ancient hydrothermal deposits on Mars, we can learn from the methods that have been developed by explorationists to explore for economic mineral deposits on Earth. Due to their simple mineralogy, hydrothermal deposits can often be detected using remote sensing methods. Common thermal spring mineral assemblages include silica, carbonate, and various metallic oxides and sulfides. But there are also a number of diagnostic silicate minerals, including clays, formed by the hydrothermal alteration of country rocks. These hydrothermal minerals have characteristic spectral signatures that could be detected from Mars orbit using high resolution infrared remote sensing methods. In playa lake settings, evaporite deposits often form a predictable "bull's eye" pattern with carbonates being deposited in marginal basin areas, and sulfates and halides occurring progressively more basinward. The floors of some impact craters on Mars, such as "White Rock" and Bequeral Crater (see Oxia Palus NE, Site 148), have floor deposits that could be evaporites, inclusive of carbonates. Evaporite minerals possess characteristic spectral signatures in the infrared and could similarly be identified from Mars orbit using high resolution remote sensing methods. Clearly, utilization of TES data will be important for optimizing site selection for Exopaleontology, and every effort should be made to benefit from that data before a final decision is made.

Farmer, Jack↗

STOP Analysis and Optimization of a Very-Low-Distortion Space Instrument: HST WFC3 Case Study

New generation optical instruments with very demanding stability requirements are being proposed and developed for space applications. STOP (Structural-Thermal-Optical Performance) analysis and optimization is crucial in meeting the very tight distortion budgets of these instruments. This presentation outlines STOP analysis and optimization approach in the context of WFC3 (Wide-Field Camera 3), which is a radial instrument designed to replace the Wide-Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). WFC3 houses two separate channels, UVIS and IR, and will have greater throughput and sensitivity than WFPC2. WFC3 line-of-sight alignment budget for the UVIS and IR channels are as small as 10 and 20 milli-arcsec, respectively. Its optical bench is the most critical subsystem effecting the optical stability of WFC3 hence our effort concentrates on the design and analysis of the bench and its interfaces. Structural analysis has accompanied the mechanical design of the bench since the initial concept study. A high fidelity structural Finite Element Model (FEM) of the bench has been developed and used for minimizing its thermally induced distortions as well as sizing it to meet the stiffness and strength requirements of a Shuttle launch. The bench is a composite honeycomb panel box structure with a very low planar Coefficient of Thermal Expansion (CTE) of approximately 0.1 ppm/C. Optic components are mounted to super-INVAR inserts bonded into the panels. The bench is kinematically supported on three HST latches via interface struts, which are tailored to exhibit negative CTE to cancel out the thermal motions of the latches. The interface struts also incorporate flexure elements to minimize the mechanical distortions coming into the bench from its enclosure. Bench FEM is coupled with the enclosure FEM to quantify these effects. Short term or on-orbit STOP analysis includes distortion due to the temperature variations of the bench, the struts, and the enclosure. Long term or ground-to-orbit STOP analysis includes distortional effects of gravity release, desorption, and assembly in addition to the ground-to-orbit temperature variations. A rigorous testing program has been implemented for verifying the material properties and the analysis predictions. STOP analysis results demonstrate that both the short-term and the long-term alignment budgets will be met. Presentation will cover design and analysis details that are critical to a successful implementation of the STOP analysis and optimization process.

Kunt, Cengiz↗

Probabilistic Structural Analysis and Reliability Using NESSUS With Implemented Material Strength Degradation Model

This project included both research and education objectives. The goal of this project was to advance innovative research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction for improved reliability and safety of structural components of aerospace and aircraft propulsion systems. Research and education partners included Glenn Research Center (GRC) and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) along with the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). SwRI enhanced the NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) code and provided consulting support for NESSUS-related activities at UTSA. NASA funding supported three undergraduate students, two graduate students, a summer course instructor and the Principal Investigator. Matching funds from UTSA provided for the purchase of additional equipment for the enhancement of the Advanced Interactive Computational SGI Lab established during the first year of this Partnership Award to conduct the probabilistic finite element summer courses. The research portion of this report presents the cumulation of work performed through the use of the probabilistic finite element program, NESSUS, Numerical Evaluation and Structures Under Stress, and an embedded Material Strength Degradation (MSD) model. Probabilistic structural analysis provided for quantification of uncertainties associated with the design, thus enabling increased system performance and reliability. The structure examined was a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel turbopump blade. The blade material analyzed was Inconel 718, since the MSD model was previously calibrated for this material. Reliability analysis encompassing the effects of high temperature and high cycle fatigue, yielded a reliability value of 0.99978 using a fully correlated random field for the blade thickness. The reliability did not change significantly for a change in distribution type except for a change in distribution from Gaussian to Weibull for the centrifugal load. The sensitivity factors determined to be most dominant were the centrifugal loading and the initial strength of the material. These two sensitivity factors were influenced most by a change in distribution type from Gaussian to Weibull. The education portion of this report describes short-term and long-term educational objectives. Such objectives serve to integrate research and education components of this project resulting in opportunities for ethnic minority students, principally Hispanic. The primary vehicle to facilitate such integration was the teaching of two probabilistic finite element method courses to undergraduate engineering students in the summers of 1998 and 1999.

Bast, Callie C.↗

Visions 2025 and Linkage to NEXT

This talk will describe the progress to date on creating a science-driven vision for the NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) in the post-2010 period. This effort began in the Fall of 2001 by organizing five science workgroups with representatives from NASA, academia and other agencies: Long-Term Climate, Medium-Term Climate, Extreme Weather, Biosphere & Ecosystems, and Solid Earth, Ice Sheets, & Sea Level. Each workgroup was directed to scope out one Big Question, including not just the science but the observational and modeling requirements, the information system requirements, and the applications and benefits to society. This first set of five Big Questions is now in hand and has been presented to the ESE Director. It includes: water resources, intraseasonal predictability, tropical cyclogenesis, invasive species, and sea level. Each of these topics will be discussed briefly. How this effort fits into the NEXT vision exercise and into Administrator O'Keefe's new vision for NASA will also be discussed.

Wiscombe, W.↗

Effects of Space Environments: Techniques and Lessons from Selected Flight Experiments

Data describing long-term materials performance under exposure to space environments has accumulated gradually over the past four decades. The authors present here selected results from several previous flight experiments and operational spacecraft, and a few examples from a current flight experiment. As examples of environmental effects on materials, analysis of Gortex samples from the Passive Optical Sample Assembly II (POSA II) experiment on the MIR-Shuttle docking module will be described. Results from a previous evaluation of radiation on silverized Teflon from over ten individual satellites will be summarized. Several examples of contamination effects on materials properties will be presented. These include outgassing of solar arrays onto nearby surfaces of the POSA I experiment and contamination of certain surfaces of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF). Results from experiments with silicone contamination on satellites in geosynchronous orbit will be compared with measurements on the Solar Maximum satellite and the LDEF. A number of techniques are being attempted to extend the range of exposure conditions present on selected experiments. Use of focusing concentrators on the Effect of Space Environments on Materials (ESEM), POSA, and Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) will be described. A technique for obtaining time-resolved data from a passive materials experiment will be described. The status of an on-going materials flight experiment, MISSE, will be reported. Finally, the authors will draw some conclusions about the current state of knowledge relating to materials chosen for spacecraft applications. Understanding of degradation mechanisms, state of predictive models, and the need to strengthen model inputs will be discussed.

Golden, J. L.↗

Psychosocial issues in long-term space flight: overview

Anecdotal evidence of the individual and interpersonal problems that occurred during the Shuttle-Mir Space Program (SMSP) and other long-duration Russian/Soviet missions, and studies of personnel in other isolated and confined extreme (ICE) environments suggest that psychosocial elements of behavior and performance are likely to have a significant impact on the outcome of long-duration missions in space. This impact may range from individual decrements in performance, health and well being, to catastrophic mission failure. This paper reviews our current understanding of the psychosocial issues related to long duration space missions according to three different domains of behavior: the individual domain, the interpersonal domain and the organizational domain. Individual issues include: personality characteristics that predict successful performance, stress due to isolation and confinement and its effect on emotions and cognitive performance, adaptive and maladaptive coping styles and strategies, and requirements for the psychological support of astronauts and their families during the mission. Interpersonal issues include: impact of crew diversity and leadership styles on small group dynamics, adaptive and maladaptive features of ground-crew interactions, and processes of crew cohesion, tension and conflict. Organizational issues include: the influence of organizational culture and mission duration on individual and group performance, and managerial requirements for long duration missions. Improved screening and selection of astronaut candidates, leadership, coping and interpersonal skills training of personnel, and organizational change are key elements in the prevention of performance decrements on long-duration missions.

Review, Tutorial↗

Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.

Disease Outbreaks↗

Fractal correlation properties of R-R interval dynamics and mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular function after an acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: Preliminary data suggest that the analysis of R-R interval variability by fractal analysis methods may provide clinically useful information on patients with heart failure. The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic power of new fractal and traditional measures of R-R interval variability as predictors of death after acute myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS: Time and frequency domain heart rate (HR) variability measures, along with short- and long-term correlation (fractal) properties of R-R intervals (exponents alpha(1) and alpha(2)) and power-law scaling of the power spectra (exponent beta), were assessed from 24-hour Holter recordings in 446 survivors of acute myocardial infarction with a depressed left ventricular function (ejection fraction </=35%). During a mean+/-SD follow-up period of 685+/-360 days, 114 patients died (25.6%), with 75 deaths classified as arrhythmic (17.0%) and 28 as nonarrhythmic (6.3%) cardiac deaths. Several traditional and fractal measures of R-R interval variability were significant univariate predictors of all-cause mortality. Reduced short-term scaling exponent alpha(1) was the most powerful R-R interval variability measure as a predictor of all-cause mortality (alpha(1) <0.75, relative risk 3.0, 95% confidence interval 2.5 to 4.2, P<0.001). It remained an independent predictor of death (P<0.001) after adjustment for other postinfarction risk markers, such as age, ejection fraction, NYHA class, and medication. Reduced alpha(1) predicted both arrhythmic death (P<0.001) and nonarrhythmic cardiac death (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the fractal characteristics of short-term R-R interval dynamics yields more powerful prognostic information than the traditional measures of HR variability among patients with depressed left ventricular function after an acute myocardial infarction.

Non-NASA Center↗

[Clinical and physiological evaluation of bone changes among astronauts after long-term space flights]

Results of the joint Russian/US studies of the effect of microgravity on bone tissues in 18 cosmonauts on return from 4.5- to 14.5-month long missions are presented. Dual-energy x-ray gamma-absorbtiometry (QDR-1000 W, Hologic, USA) was used to measure bone mineral density (BMD, g/cm2) and mineral content (BMC, g) in the whole body, the scalp including cervical vertebra, arms, ribs, sternal and lumbar regions of the spinal column, pelvis and legs. A clearly defined dependence of topography of changes upon the position of a skeletal segment in the gravity vector was established. The greatest BMD losses have been observed in the skeleton of the lower body, i.e. in pelvic bones (-11.99 +/- 1.22%), lumbar vertebra (-5.63 +/- 0.817%), and in proximal femur, particularly in the femoral neck (-8.17 +/- 1.24%). Bones of the upper skeleton were either unchanged (insignificant) or showed a positive trend. Overall changes in bone mass of the whole skeleton of male cosmonauts during the period of about 6 months on mission made up -1.41 +/- 0.406% and suggest the mean balance of calcium over flight equal to -227 +/- 62.8 mg/day. Reasoning is given to qualify these states of cosmonauts' bone tissues as local osteopenia. On the literature and results of authors' clinical evidence, discussed is availability of the densitometric data for predicting risk of trauma. A biological nature of the changes under observation is hypothesized.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

(abstract) Deep Space Network Radiometric Remote Sensing Program

Planetary spacecraft are viewed through a troposphere that absorbs and delays radio signals propagating through it. Tropospheric water, in the form of vapor, cloud liquid,and precipitation , emits radio noise which limits satellite telemetry communication link performance. Even at X-band, rain storms have severely affected several satellite experiments including a planetary encounter. The problem will worsen with DSN implementation of Ka-band becausecommunication link budgets will be dominated by tropospheric conditions. Troposphere-induced propagation delays currently limit VLBI accuracy and are significant sources of error for Doppler tracking. Additionally, the success of radio science programs such as satellite gravity wave experiments and atmospheric occultation experiments depends on minimizing the effect of watervapor-induced prop agation delays. In order to overcome limitations imposed by the troposphere, the Deep Space Network has supported a program of radiometric remote sensing. Currently, water vapor radiometers (WVRs) and microwave temperature profilers (MTPs) support many aspects of the Deep Space Network operations and research and development programs. Their capability to sense atmospheric water, microwave sky brightness, and atmospheric temperature is critical to development of Ka-band telemetry systems, communication link models, VLBI, satellite gravity waveexperiments, and r adio science missions. During 1993, WVRs provided data for propagation mode development, supp orted planetary missions, and demonstrated advanced tracking capability. Collection of atmospheric statistics is necessary to model and predict performance of Ka-band telemetry links, antenna arrays, and radio science experiments. Since the spectrum of weather variations has power at very long time scales, atmospheric measurements have been requested for periods ranging from one year to a decade at each DSN site. The resulting database would provide reliable statistics on daily, monthly, and seasonal variations. Only long-term monitoring will prevent biases from being introduced by an exceptionally wet or dry year. Support for planetary missions included tropospheric calibration for the recent Mars Observer gravity wave experiments and Ka-band link experiment (KaBLE). Additionally, several proposed radio science experiments such as profiling planetary atmospheres using satellite occultations and Ka-band gravitational wave searches require advanced radiometer technology development. Finally, there has been a consistent advanced technology program to advance satellite navigational and tracking capabilities. This year that included an experiment with radiometer based tropospheric calibration for a series of VLBI catalog measurements.

microwave propagation Ka-band weather variations r↗

Deep Space Network Radiometric Remote Sensing Program

Planetary spacecraft are viewed through a troposphere that absorbs and delays radio signals propagating through it. Tropospheric water, in the form of vapor, cloud liquid, and precipitation, emits radio noise which limits satellite telemetry communication link performance. Even at X-band, rain storms have severely affected several satellite experiments including a planetary encounter. The problem will worsen with DSN implementation of Ka-band because communication link budgets will be dominated by tropospheric conditions. Troposphere-induced propagation delays currently limit VLBI accuracy and are significant sources of error for Doppler tracking. Additionally, the success of radio science programs such as satellite gravity wave experiments and atmospheric occultation experiments depends on minimizing the effect of water vapor-induced propagation delays. In order to overcome limitations imposed by the troposphere, the Deep Space Network has supported a program of radiometric remote sensing. Currently, water vapor radiometers (WVRs) and microwave temperature profilers (MTPs) support many aspects of the Deep Space Network operations and research and development programs. Their capability to sense atmospheric water, microwave sky brightness, and atmospheric temperature is critical to development of Ka-band telemetry systems, communication link models, VLBI, satellite gravity wave experiments, and radio science missions. During 1993, WVRs provided data for propagation model development, supported planetary missions, and demonstrated advanced tracking capability. Collection of atmospheric statistics is necessary to model and predict performance of Ka-band telemetry links, antenna arrays, and radio science experiments. Since the spectrum of weather variations has power at very long time scales, atmospheric measurements have been requested for periods ranging from one year to a decade at each DSN site. The resulting database would provide reliable statistics on daily, monthly, and seasonal variations. Only long-term monitoring will prevent biases from being introduced by an exceptionally wet or dry year. Support for planetary missions included tropospheric calibration for the recent Mars Observer gravity wave experiments and Ka-band link experiment (KaBLE). Additionally, several proposed radio science experiments such as profiling planetary atmospheres using satellite occultations and Ka-band gravitational wave searches require advanced radiometer technology development. Finally, there has been a consistent advanced technology program to advance satellite navigational and tracking capabilities. This year that included an experiment with radiometer based tropospheric calibration for a series of VLBI catalog measurements.

tropospheric calibration atmospheric water radio s↗

Interim Report of the Astronomy Spacelab Payloads Study: Ultraviolet and Optical Astronomy - Volume 2

The Space Shuttle will comprise NASA's primary transportation system into near-earth orbit during the 1980s. The Shuttle will provide the astronomical community with a major new capability to send a wide variety of instrumentation into orbit, to utilize it there under manned or automatic control for periods from seven to thirty days, and to return it to the ground. To this end the European Space Research Organization (ESRO) is developing Spacelab, an array of interchangeable components -pressurized manned modules, unpressurized pallets and related support systems - to be mounted in the Shuttle payload bay. Spacelab will offer important opportunities to carry out astronomical research with instruments optimized for specific objectives. With a high flight frequency and with the ability to modify or interchange telescopes and instruments between flights, one will not need to make rigid long-term commitments to specific and compromised telescope/instrument/ detector combinations as is the case for automated satellites. Observational techniques demanding the physical return of data and equipment - in particular the use of photographic film, instruments requiring tight calibration controls, cryogens, high-risk detectors and degradeable optical coatings -will open research areas not readily addressed by automated satellites. Although Shuttle flight duration will be limited to periods from seven to thirty days, substantial data can be obtained with a single instrument on short missions, if targets are carefully selected and prioritized, and a large number of instruments can be accommodated on a single flight. Important astronomical data are regularly obtained on sounding rocket flights of five minutes duration. Spacelab will provide far longer observing periods for large and small telescopes, with resources greatly exceeding those of sounding rockets, while retaining much of the sounding rocket philosophy in terms of instrument flexibility, simplicity, reliability assurance and development costs. The Ultraviolet and Optical Astronomy Program on Spacelab is being planned to provide optical astronomers with relatively simple and regular access to the extended wavelength coverage, the superior image quality and the darkness of the night sky available above the earth's atmosphere. In a rapidly evolving science one cannot predict what problems will be timely in the 1980s. Extrapolating from the current epoch, however, one can envision a continuing interest in such areas as the structure, composition and phenomenology of planetary surfaces and atmospheres; the composition and physical nature of the interstellar medium; the composition, structure and life history of stars, especially those in advanced stages of evolution; the stellar population of other galaxies; such enigmatic phenomena as X-ray binary black holes, pulsars, active galactic nuclei and quasars; large scale interactions between galaxies and the nature of the intergalactic medium; precise calibration of the Hubble law for the expansion of the universe; the average density of the universe; and the existence of extraterrestrial life.

Source record↗