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DOE OSTI2024

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exponential concentration in quantum kernel methods

Kernel methods in Quantum Machine Learning (QML) have recently gained significant attention as a potential candidate for achieving a quantum advantage in data analysis. Among other attractive properties, when training a kernel-based model one is guaranteed to find the optimal model’s parameters due to the convexity of the training landscape. However, this is based on the assumption that the quantum kernel can be efficiently obtained from quantum hardware. In this work we study the performance of quantum kernel models from the perspective of the resources needed to accurately estimate kernel values. We show that, under certain conditions, values of quantum kernels over different input data can be exponentially concentrated (in the number of qubits) towards some fixed value. Thus on training with a polynomial number of measurements, one ends up with a trivial model where the predictions on unseen inputs are independent of the input data. We identify four sources that can lead to concentration including expressivity of data embedding, global measurements, entanglement and noise. For each source, an associated concentration bound of quantum kernels is analytically derived. Lastly, we show that when dealing with classical data, training a parametrized data embedding with a kernel alignment method is also susceptible to exponential concentration. Our results are verified through numerical simulations for several QML tasks. Altogether, we provide guidelines indicating that certain features should be avoided to ensure the efficient evaluation of quantum kernels and so the performance of quantum kernel methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Passive high explosive neutron inspection (PHENIX): a new method to confirm the presence or absence of high explosives for nuclear treaty verification

Advanced instruments and methods need to be developed now to create a technical basis to support the negotiation of future nuclear arms control treaties. One new capability that is anticipated is the ability to confirm either the declared presence or declared absence of high explosive (HE) material in the presence of special nuclear material (SNM). Towards this goal, Passive HE Neutron Inspection (PHENIX) has been developed and demonstrated as a method for confirming the presence or absence of HE in the presence of plutonium. The method exploits the inherent presence of neutrons associated with the decay of plutonium as an internal probe source for performing prompt gamma-ray neutron activation analysis (PGNAA), searching for the presence of HE as revealed by the emission of characteristic gamma rays following neutron absorption in hydrogen and nitrogen which are building blocks of present-day, military-grade HE. Tests using stoichiometrically-correct hemishells of mock HE with plutonium show that a system can be expected to positively confirm the presence or absence of these signatures, supporting determination of HE presence or absence with Pu, in a few hours. To protect other potentially sensitive gamma-ray signatures from a treaty accountable item, an analog information barrier has been conceptualized and tested which physically prevents the collection of gamma-ray spectral data outside of user selected energy windows strategically chosen to view only narrow spectral regions corresponding to the hydrogen (2223.2 keV) and nitrogen (9807.2 keV, 10,318.2 keV, and 10,829.2 keV) PGNAA signatures.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

A simple and practical wax-encapsulation method for air-sensitive XAS samples

To facilitate X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) measurements of air-sensitive samples, we present a simple method in which materials are encased in common paraffin wax to protect them from air and moisture. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach using a highly reducing, air- and moisture-sensitive uranium(III) complex, the tris(amide) U[N(SiMe 3 ) 2 ] 3 (1). When finely dispersed in a boron nitride matrix and subsequently encased in inert paraffin wax, samples of 1 remain stable with no visible or spectroscopic degradation after several days under ambient conditions. The viability of this method for XAS measurements was further evaluated across a series of uranium compounds, ranging from uranyl species to highly air- and moisture-sensitive molecular complexes, at the uranium L 3 -edge. Edge energy determinations were highly reproducible (±0.1 eV between replicates) and, where available, showed excellent agreement with literature values. In conclusion, this low-cost, effective, and versatile method offers a viable solution for XAS studies of air-sensitive compounds and materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A novel method may reveal bulk metallic glass compressive ductility trends in high data rate nanoindentation

Recent methods allow novel amorphous alloy compositions to be rapidly manufactured at small scale; however, obtaining materials properties such as compressive ductility from these smaller specimens has remained a challenge. Here, we suggest a potential high-throughput nanoindentation method that may be able to rapidly characterize the relative compressive ductility between these alloys based on their serration characteristics. The properties of emergent serrations, when interpreted in a simple micromechanical stress relaxation model, may order these materials by their compressive plastic strain to failure. These results are consistent with the ordering obtained from compressed specimens as well as with model simulations, suggesting that this model may be broadly useful for interpreting compressive ductility from nanoindentation serrations. After it is validated on more materials, this new method will match the rapid pace of amorphous alloy development, thus allowing metallic glass properties to be fine-tuned for each application prior to scale prototyping.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Jacobian-free pseudo-arclength continuation method for phase transitions in inhomogeneous thermodynamic systems

Developing phase diagrams for inhomogeneous systems in thermodynamics is difficult, in part, due to the large phase space and the possibility of unstable and metastable solutions arising from first-order phase transitions. Pseudo-arclength continuation (PAC) is a method that allows one to trace out stable and unstable solutions of nonlinear systems. Typically, PAC utilizes the Jacobian in order to implement Newton (or quasi-Newton) steps. In this work, we present a Jacobian-free PAC method that is amenable to the usual workflows in inhomogeneous thermodynamics. We demonstrate our method in systems that have first-order phase transitions, including a novel example of polyelectrolyte complex coacervation in confinement, where multiple surface phase transitions occur and can overlap with one another.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

A meshless stochastic method for Poisson–Nernst–Planck equations

A plethora of biological, physical, and chemical phenomena involve transport of charged particles (ions). Its continuum-scale description relies on the Poisson–Nernst–Planck (PNP) system, which encapsulates the conservation of mass and charge. The numerical solution of these coupled partial differential equations is challenging and suffers from both the curse of dimensionality and difficulty in efficiently parallelizing. We present a novel particle-based framework to solve the full PNP system by simulating a drift–diffusion process with time- and space-varying drift. We leverage Green’s functions, kernel-independent fast multipole methods, and kernel density estimation to solve the PNP system in a meshless manner, capable of handling discontinuous initial states. The method is embarrassingly parallel, and the computational cost scales linearly with the number of particles and dimension. We use a series of numerical experiments to demonstrate both the method’s convergence with respect to the number of particles and computational cost vis-à-vis a traditional partial differential equation solver.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

An enrichment wall modeling framework for spectral element methods

In the present work, a first-of-its-kind enrichment wall-model is developed within the spectral element method (SEM) framework for large-eddy simulations (LES) of wall-bounded turbulent flows. The method augments the polynomial solution in the wall-adjacent elements with an analytical law-of-the-wall enrichment function representing the mean velocity near the wall. In the solution representation, this enrichment function captures the large gradients in the boundary layer, which allows the polynomial modes to represent the turbulent fluctuations. The enriched solution is able to resolve the shear stress at the wall without any modification to the no-slip wall boundary conditions, which allows for greater accuracy in the near-wall region compared to traditional methods. The enrichment wall modeling approach is implemented in a high-order SEM computational fluid dynamics solver, Nek5000, and its performance is assessed in turbulent channel flow wall-modeled LES for a range of Reynolds numbers. It is demonstrated that the enrichment wall-model improves solution accuracy on under-resolved near-wall grids as compared to traditional shear stress wall-models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measuring the thermal conductivity of hydrogels with a bidirectional 3w method

Hydrogels are soft, water-absorbing polymer materials with diverse applications in biomedicine and agriculture. Recently, hydrogels have been proposed to encapsulate water-soluble phase change materials which store energy in their latent heat of solidification. In these applications, the thermal conductivity of these materials affects their performance. Few methods exist for measuring the thermal conductivity of small quantities of hydrogels. Here, we describe an implementation of the bidirectional 3w technique to measure the thermal conductivity of hydrogels with particular attention to their moisture content. Our implementation of the technique can probe sample volumes as little as ~20 mL and yields the thermal conductivity without requiring fitting of additional thermal parameters. We numerically simulate 3w sensor designs with frequency-domain 3-D models to quantify and reduce errors introduced by the choice of substrate and insulation layer thickness. Frequencies in the ~1−20 Hz range yield less error for the materials considered here. We verify our setup with measurements on water and report values for polyacrylamide and poly(2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid) (PAMPS) hydrogels. Our swollen hydrogels exhibited thermal conductivities nearly equivalent to water, 0.6 W m-1 K-1, and we estimate thermal conductivities of 0.43 and 0.42 W m-1 K-1 for neat polyacrylamide and PAMPS, respectively. Finally, we estimate an error of ±7%, consistent with other 3ω methods, with the largest error coming from the sensor calibration. We find our implementation of the bidirectional 3w method gives reasonable results and can be employed for prototyping soft materials relevant for thermal storage.

3-omega, thermal conductivity, hydrogel, moisture ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Symmetry-projected spin-AGP methods applied to spin systems

Symmetry-projected wave function methods capture static correlation by breaking and restoring the symmetries of a system. In this article, we present the symmetry-projected spin antisymmetrized geminal power (spin-AGP) state projected onto space group symmetry as well as complex conjugation, spin-flip, and time-reversal symmetries. The method is benchmarked on the 1D XXZ model and the 2D J 1 − J 2 model with square and triangular lattices. Our results indicate that symmetry projection methods provide a powerful tool for frustrated spin systems.

Antisymmetrized geminal power↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance of the spin-component-scaled methods for energy bands

The performance of various spin-component-scaled parameterisations is examined for the second-order many-body Green's-function [MBGF(2)] calculations of valence energy bands, taking three of the experimentally well-characterised polymers as examples: polyethylene, polytetrafluoroethylene, and polyacetylene. The parameterisations considered are Grimme's original SCS parameter set, Jung et al.'s original SOS set (retaining the opposite-spin component only), Śmiga et al.'s SCS(IP) set (calibrated specifically for ionization energies), and Śmiga et al.'s SOS(IP) set (calibrated for ionization energies with the opposite-spin component only; implicit in the os-D2 model of Opoku et al.). The SCS(IP) and SOS(IP) parameterisations are found to shift both outer and inner valence bands by up to a few electronvolts away from the experimental data. The original SCS and SOS parameter sets do not improve upon, but largely maintain the accuracy of the unscaled MBGF(2) methods. Given that the SOS-MBGF(2) method can be implemented in a quartic-scaling algorithm (for all roots), it is most promising for solid-state applications. Furthermore this observation is consistent with the success of the quartic-scaling GW methods without the vertex correction based on a density-functional theory reference.

Green’s-function theory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Form-factor dependence of neutrino-nucleus cross sections using microscopic methods

To achieve its design goals, the next generation of neutrino-oscillation accelerator experiments requires percent-level predictions of neutrino-nucleus cross sections supplemented by robust estimates of the theoretical uncertainties involved. The latter arise from both approximations in solving the nuclear many-body problem and in the determination of the single- and few-nucleon quantities taken as input by many-body methods. To gauge the sensitivity of realistic nuclear many body methods to these few-nucleon quantities, we compute flux-averaged double-differential cross sections using the Green’s function Monte Carlo and spectral function methods as well as different parameterizations of the nucleon axial form factors based on either deuterium bubble-chamber data or lattice quantum chromodynamics calculations. The cross-section results are compared with available experimental data from the MiniBooNE and T2K collaborations. We also discuss the uncertainties associated with N → Δ transition form factors that enter the two-body current operator. We quantify the relations between neutrino-nucleus cross section and nucleon form factor uncertainties. These relations enable us to determine the form factor precision targets required to achieve a given cross-section precision.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Foreground removal with ILC methods for AliCPT-1

One of the main goals of most future CMB experiments is the precise measurement of CMB B-mode polarization, whose major obstacle is the Galactic foregrounds. In this paper, we evaluate the foreground cleaning performance of the variants of the ILC method on partial sky B-modes and analyze the main sources of biases on the BB power spectrum. Specially, we compare the NILC, the cILC (in three domains) and the cMILC methods for AliCPT-1 simulations. We find that the cILC methods implemented in harmonic space and needlet space are both competent to clean different models of foregrounds, which bias the tensor-to-scalar ratio about 0.008 at maximum, and constrain the tensor-to-scalar ratio to r < 0.043(95%CL) for the AliCPT-1 configuration. We also note that the deviation of the estimated noise bias from the actual one for ILC, dubbed the noise bias error (NBE) in this paper, might make significant effects on the power spectrum for a small footprint and low signal-to-noise ratio CMB experiment. We finally obtain its relation with respect to the noise residual which fits well with the simulated results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validation of new and existing methods for time-domain simulations of turbulence and loads

We seek to obtain a second-by-second match between the simulated and measured structural loads of a utility-scale wind turbine. To obtain the one-to-one load simulations, we start with the furthest upstream component of the modeling chain: the turbulent inflow. We consider new and existing methods to generate constrained-turbulence flow fields. The new method is based on large-eddy simulations (LES) and machine learning (ML). The existing methods include Kaimal-based TurbSim and the superstatistical wind field model. The inflow measurements used to constrain these simulations are obtained with a nacelle-mounted scanning lidar. We compare the flow fields for the different inflow simulation approaches and validate their associated load predictions against measurements collected in the Rotor Aero-dynamics, Aeroelastics, and Wake (RAAW) field campaign. We find that the rotor-position control developed for this study is key in enabling the time match between measurements and simulations. When this control approach is used, the load simulation performance tracks with the inflow simulation fidelity, with LES+ML yielding errors ≤ 4% for the damage-equivalent loads of flapwise bending moment, and tower fore-aft bending moments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Target development using the method of High-Intensity Vibrational Powder Plating (HIVIPP) at the Center for Accelerator Target Science (CATS) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)

One of the primary goals of the Center for Accelerator Target Science (CATS) is to provide targets and foils in support of the ATLAS User Facility and the Low-Energy community at large. While a wide array of target production techniques are available at CATS, new methods that must be explored invariably arise. One such technique, the High-Intensity Vibrational Powder Plating (HIVIPP), was first reported in 1997 by Isao Sugai. It was developed to produce targets and stripper foils that were difficult to make by standard methods. At Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), we have successfully constructed and tested a simple system for this purpose. We have produced targets of carbon and titanium on various metal backings using the HIVIPP method. We are currently in the exciting phase of exploring the production of other elements, including isotopically enriched and radioactive material. This work is in progress and will be further detailed with specific examples.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Structure and tunable temperature coefficient of magnetization of Mn 4-x Ga x C alloys prepared by induction melting method

The magnetization of most magnetic materials decreases monotonically with increasing temperature. In this work, we found that the temperature coefficient of magnetization of Mn 4-x Ga x C alloys can be tuned from negative values to positive values by controlling the composition x. The antiperovskite type Mn 4-x Ga x C (0.05 ≤ x ≤ 0.75) alloys were prepared by using induction melting method, which is more efficient in large-scale production and obtaining full-density alloys in comparison with the traditional solid-state-reaction method. The values of the temperature coefficient of magnetization of Mn 4-x Ga x C change continuously from negative to positive with decreasing x. The Mn 4-x Ga x C alloys with highly thermal-stable magnetization is expected to present in the composition range of 0.15 < x < 0.25. The saturation magnetization of Mn 4-x Ga x C increases with increasing x, owing to the reduced number of antiferromagnetically coupled Mn atoms at the cubic corner with the face centered Mn atoms. Most Mn 4-x Ga x C alloys with varying x display near-zero remanent magnetization and coercivity at room temperature. The Currie temperature of Mn 4-x Ga x C decreases with increasing x. The x-ray photoelectron spectra of Mn 2p, Ga 2p, and C 1 s reveal distinct splitting due to the diverse chemical states of these atoms at different lattice positions and/or phases. Our work has developed a class of alloys capable of offering a desired temperature coefficient of magnetization across a broad temperature range, thereby offering a method to manipulate the thermodynamics of magnetization.

Magnetic properties↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the role of adipose tissue in mobility and aging: design and methods of the Adipose Tissue ancillary to the Study of Muscle, Mobility, and Aging (SOMMA-AT)

Background Age-related changes in adipose tissue affect chronic medical diseases and mobility disability but mechanism remains poorly understood. The goal of this study is to define methods for phenotyping unique characteristics of adipose tissue from older adults. Methods Older adults enrolled in study of muscle, mobility, and aging selected for the adipose tissue ancillary (SOMMA-AT; N = 210, 52.38% women, 76.12 ± 4.37 years) were assessed for regional adiposity by whole-body magnetic resonance (AMRA) and underwent a needle-aspiration biopsy of abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (ASAT). ASAT biopsies were flash frozen, fixed, or processed for downstream applications and deposited at the biorepository. Biopsy yields, qualitative features, adipocyte sizes, and concentration of adipokines secreted in ASAT explant conditioned media were measured. Inter-measure Spearman correlations were determined. Results Regional, but not total, adiposity differed by sex: women had greater ASAT mass (8.20 ± 2.73 kg, p < .001) and biopsy yield (3.44 ± 1.81 g, p < .001) than men (ASAT = 5.95 ± 2.30 kg, biopsy = 2.30 ± 1.40 g). ASAT mass correlated with leptin (r = 0.54, p < .001) and not resistin (p = .248) and adiponectin (p = .353). Adipocyte area correlated with ASAT mass (r = 0.34, p < .001), BMI (r = 0.33, p < .001), adiponectin (r = −0.22, p = .005) and leptin (r = 0.18, p = .024) but not with resistin (p = .490). Conclusion In addition to the detailed ASAT biopsy processing in this report, we found that adipocyte area correlated with ASAT mass, and both measures related to some key adipokines in the explant conditioned media. In conclusion, these results, methods, and biological repositories underscore the potential of this unique cohort to impact the understanding of aging adipose biology on disease, disability, and other aging tissues.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Closing the Accuracy Gap in Tandem Photovoltaic Testing: An Accessible and Efficient Spectral Tuning Method Using LED-Based Simulators for Research Laboratories and Industry

Accurate performance calibration of multijunction (MJ) solar cells is critical for advancing this technology toward large-scale terrestrial application, yet existing testing methods developed by photovoltaics calibration laboratories remain prohibitively complex and resource intensive for most research laboratories. Current approaches rely on expensive multisource simulators and/or intricate spectral tuning algorithms, limiting accessibility and hindering standardized comparisons of emerging MJ technologies such as perovskite-based tandems. This paper introduces a streamlined spectral irradiance adjustment method for light-emitting diode (LED)-based solar simulators, which are increasingly adopted in the photovoltaics community due to their versatility and cost-effectiveness. The method we present bins LED channels into groups based on the number of junctions of the MJ photovoltaic device under test (DUT) and their corresponding band gaps and incorporates an automated tuning algorithm that eliminates the need to adjust each channel’s irradiance individually. This tuning algorithm requires the relative spectral responsivities of both the DUT and a broadband reference cell, as well as a calibrated spectroradiometer. Measurement validation across various MJ devices, including III-V and perovskite/silicon tandems, demonstrates excellent agreement within 1% with well-established xenon-tungsten multisource simulators and associated tuning algorithms. By enabling precise spectral tuning with readily available equipment and a simple tuning algorithm, our approach bridges the measurement accuracy gap between research laboratories and accredited testing facilities, fostering more reliable device comparisons and accelerating the translation of MJ technologies into real-world energy systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗