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DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗

DOE OSTI2024

Latent Stochastic Differential Equations for Modeling Quasar Variability and Inferring Black Hole Properties

Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar’s brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing Control Performance Between Simulation and Experiment using the Microreactor Automated Control System Testbed

In the advanced reactor domain, a flexible and scalable software/hardware infrastructure is crucial for integrating and validating various control technologies. This study used the Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS) hardware platform as a testbed. MACS was originally designed to mirror Idaho National Laboratory (INL)'s Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL), a 85-kW thermal fission microreactor. It features control drums for simulated reactivity control; lights that function as a surrogate reactor core, with the brightness being proportional to the reactor power; and light sensors that emulate neutron detectors. To transform MACS into a physical twin of MARVEL for evaluating control methods, the Control and Optimization Modular Modeling Application for Nuclear Deployment (COMMAND) software was employed. This software integrated the hardware with two models of the MARVEL core, based on Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D) and Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) models. The study aimed to demonstrate the gap between control theory and actual practice—a gap that often necessitates empirical adjustments such as control gain retuning, filters, time discretization, and integrator anti-windup measures. Controllers were developed based on increasingly complex simulations without hardware, starting from the base MARVEL model and then introducing actuator saturation constraints and sensor noise. The final control strategy was then tested using MACS, and a comparative performance analysis was conducted.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Qualification of ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 Mixing Criteria by Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for the 3430 Building Fan Addition and Increased Ventilation Capacity

Additional ventilation capacity has been designed for the 3430 Building filtered exhaust stack system. The updated system will increase the number of fans from two to three and include new ductwork with a larger diameter to integrate the new fan into the existing stack. Stack operations will involve running various fan combinations at any given time. The air monitoring system of the existing two-fan stack previously was found to comply with the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-1999 standard. Full-scale, three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to evaluate the modified three-fan system for compliance with the ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 standard, which essentially is equivalent to the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard. The four mixing criteria evaluated are 1) flow angle, 2) velocity, 3) gas tracer, and 4) particle tracer. Benchmarking of the CFD modeling methodology showed good agreement with previous testing used to qualify the stack, and modeling of the existing two-fan system showed good agreement with test data collected from the 3430 Building stack. Modeling was performed to develop a suitable three-fan design. Initial modeling of the three-fan design and basic ductwork showed that flow angles and velocity uniformity were acceptable; however, the gas tracer and particle tracer mixing results were not acceptable. To meet ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 criteria, an air blender was added to the stack design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Qualification of ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 Mixing Criteria by Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for the 3430 Building Fan Addition and Increased Ventilation Capacity

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning-driven Molecular Design for Therapeutic Discovery

The ongoing novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has highlighted the need for new therapeutics to counter the threat of emerging viral pathogens. The main proteases are a promising target for developing antiviral inhibitors. In this work, we utilized a novel combination of artificial intelligence-driven iterative design of covalent inhibitor candidates, physics-based computational modeling of protein-inhibitor interactions, and “All in One” Native MS biophysical assay screening and characterization of therapeutic candidates. With our existing expertise in hit generation using a particular scaffold as a starting point, we first generated tens of thousands of compounds that preserve the key scaffold. In order to optimize the candidates, we calculated about 136 descriptors consisting of 2D and 3D features for molecules targeting the SARS-CoV-2 Main protease (Mpro). These compounds were initially filtered according to properties and further sorted by predicted binding affinity using our automated docking modeling and machine learning methods. We tested a handful of candidates and identified two as inhibitors of Mpro with micromolar affinities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. Commercial Building Stock Analysis of COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the importance of improving building indoor air quality to reduce occupants' chances of contracting airborne illness. The ASHRAE Epidemic Task Force (ASHRAE-ETF) released several COVID-19 mitigation strategies at the onset of the pandemic. This study explores four of those recommendations for reducing transmission of COVID-19 inside buildings: (1) 100% outdoor air ventilation, (2) MERV-13 or better filters, (3) demand control ventilation removal, and (4) HVAC flushing mode. These recommendations were simulated and assessed using ComStock, a model of the U.S. commercial building stock. The study showed the 100% outdoor air ventilation recommendation had the largest impact on energy consumption, noncoincident peak demand, and thermostat violations. Removing demand control ventilation had the smallest national aggregate impact, installing MERV-13 filters led to slight increases in energy use and peak demand, and HVAC outdoor air flushing led to modest energy use and peak demand increases.

building energy modelling↗

DOE OSTI2022

PARETO 0.5.0 Release

PARETO 0.5.0 Release. Highlights: Treatment Center Modeling - New case study with desalination, clean brine, and evaporation treatment technologies - New option to reduce disposal capacity due to Seismic Response Areas (SRA) - New option to consider water sharing outside of system General Updates - New features for Sankey Diagram visualization (multiple regions, filtered time periods) - Introduce badges to README.md - Convert documentation to ASCII LaTeX - Code cleaning and maintenance - Correct strategic model documentation typo - Update and format treatment demo input spreadsheet Bug Fixes - Fix water quality operational model results printing bug - Piping and trucking variables are now built only over defined arcs instead of all possible connections - Revise pipeline expansion cost constraints, ensure that all pipelines built incur cost

PARETO,PARETO-UI,PSE,Process Systems Engineering,P↗

DOE OSTI2022

Existence of tidal tails for the globular cluster NGC 5824

Context: Several dynamically cold streams have been associated with certain globular clusters (GCs) based on orbital energies and angular momenta. Some of these streams are surprisingly far apart from their progenitors and one such pair is Triangulum and NGC 5824. Triangulum can be considered as a piece of the leading tail of NGC 5824 since the cluster’s future orbit matches well with the stream’s track. The existence of the leading tail of NGC 5824 is the motivation behind the search for its trailing tail. Aims: Our goal is to confirm the connection between Triangulum and NGC 5824. We also search for the trailing tail of the cluster. Methods: The selection of member stars of Triangulum is made through various cuts in metallicity, proper motions (PMs), radial velocity and a color–magnitude diagram (CMD). The selected members are compared in phase space to a mock stream that models the disruption of NGC 5824. We then try to detect the trailing tail of the cluster based on a modified matched-filter technique. Stars are assigned weights using their color differences from the cluster’s locus in the CMD. These weights are further scaled, based on the stars’ departures from expected PMs of the model stream. Results: A total of 26 member stars for Triangulum are obtained, 16 of which are newly identified. These members are consistent with the mock stream in the phase space, and their metalicity and position on the CMD are in good agreement with NGC 5824. By applying the matched filter, a tenuous trailing tail of the cluster is detected, spanning ~50° long on sky. The signature matches well with the mock stream’s trajectory. Conclusions: Our results support that the Triangulum stream acts as a part of the leading tail for NGC 5824. On the trailing side, we detected a 50° tail extending from the cluster. The existence of both leading and trailing tails for the GC NGC 5824 is verified.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

U.S. Commercial Building Stock Analysis of COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies: Preprint

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the importance of improving building indoor air quality to reduce occupants’ chances of contracting airborne illness. The ASHRAE Epidemic Task Force (ASHRAE-ETF) released several COVID-19 mitigation strategies at the onset of the pandemic. This study explores four of those recommendations for reducing transmission of COVID-19 inside buildings: (1) 100% outdoor air ventilation, (2) MERV-13 or better filters, (3) demand control ventilation removal, and (4) HVAC flushing mode. These recommendations were simulated and assessed using ComStock, a model of the U.S. commercial building stock. The study showed the 100% outdoor air ventilation recommendation had the largest impact on energy consumption, noncoincident peak demand, and thermostat violations. Removing demand control ventilation had the smallest national aggregate impact, installing MERV-13 filters led to slight increases in energy use and peak demand, and HVAC outdoor air flushing led to modest energy use and peak demand increases.

building energy modelling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Half-Metal Spin Filter for Highly Polarized Emission from GaAs Photocathodes

GaAs-based photocathodes are one of the major sources of spin-polarized electrons and are crucial for the upcoming Electron-Ion collider experiments which includes study of proton spin and spin parity violation in the standard model. The theoretical polarization limit in unstrained GaAs photocathodes is 50 % but only 35 % is routinely achieved in experiments. Spin selective filtering allows to boost the spin polarization beyond the 50 % theoretical limit. In this work, first-principle electronic calculations using standard Density Functional Theory are performed to predict possible Heusler alloy half-metal candidates to be used as spin-filter. Simulations are also performed to investigate the half-metallicity as function of the magnetic spin direction. Several devices are experimentally fabricated using dedicated Molecular Beam Epitaxy growth system. We implemented Quantum Efficiency and Polarization testing of these half-metal/GaAs heterostructures using a dedicated Mott polarimeter system. Photoemission can also be seen on magnetically switching the spin-filter direction accompanied by a change in sign of the asymmetry which is a qualitative proof of the spin-filtering effect.

Poddar, S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A 1 km soil moisture dataset over eastern CONUS generated by assimilating SMAP data into the Noah-MP land surface model

An improved fine-scale soil moisture (SM) dataset at 1 km grid spacing, covering much of the eastern continental US, was generated by assimilating 9 km Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) SM data into the v4.0.1 Noah-MP land surface model. With 12 ensemble members, the assimilation was carried out using the ensemble Kalman filter algorithm within NASA's Land Information System. The SM analysis for 2016 was fully validated against in situ observations from four different networks and compared with four other existing datasets. Results indicate that this SM analysis surpasses other datasets in top-layer SM distribution, including a machine-learning-based product, despite all SM estimates being less heterogeneous than observed. The analysis of anomalous errors suggests that large similarity in intrinsic errors is likely due to overlapping data sources among the selected SM datasets. More detailed evaluations were performed over two geographic areas. The observations collected by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility in Oklahoma suggest that soil temperature and surface heat fluxes are concurrently simulated with good accuracy. Investigation into the 2016 southeastern US drought response further indicates drier conditions and higher evapotranspiration estimates compared to GLEAMv4.1. Notably, large errors are associated with grids having clay soil textures, underscoring the need for refined model treatments for specific soil types to further improve SM estimates. The dataset is publicly available on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14370563 (Tai et al., 2024).

Tai, Sheng-Lun [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK VI. Noise characterization and modeling

We present a Bayesian method for estimating instrumental noise parameters and propagating noise uncertainties within the global BeyondPlanck Gibbs sampling framework, and apply this to Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) time-ordered data. Following previous literature, we initially adopt a 1/ f model for the noise power spectral density (PSD), but find the need for an additional lognormal component in the noise model for the 30 and 44 GHz bands. We implement an optimal Wiener-filter (or constrained realization) gap-filling procedure to account for masked data. We then use this procedure to both estimate the gapless correlated noise in the time-domain, n corr , and to sample the noise PSD parameters, ξ n = {σ 0 , f knee , α, A p }. In contrast to previous Planck analyses, we assume piecewise stationary noise only within each pointing period (PID), not throughout the full mission, but we adopt the LFI Data Processing Center (DPC) results as priors on α and f knee . On average, we find best-fit correlated noise parameters that are mostly consistent with previous results, with a few notable exceptions. However, a detailed inspection of the time-dependent results reveals many important findings. First and foremost, we find strong evidence for statistically significant temporal variations in all noise PSD parameters, many of which are directly correlated with satellite housekeeping data. Second, while the simple 1/ f model appears to be an excellent fit for the LFI 70 GHz channel, there is evidence for additional correlated noise not described by a 1/ f model in the 30 and 44 GHz channels, including within the primary science frequency range of 0.1–1 Hz. In general, most 30 and 44 GHz channels exhibit deviations from 1/ f at the 2–3σ level in each one hour pointing period, motivating the addition of the lognormal noise component for these bands. For some periods of time, we also find evidence of strong common mode noise fluctuations across the entire focal plane. Overall, we conclude that a simple 1/ f profile is not adequate to fully characterize the Planck LFI noise, even when fitted hour-by-hour, and a more general model is required. These findings have important implications for large-scale CMB polarization reconstruction with the Planck LFI data, and the current work is a first attempt at understanding and mitigating these issues.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fast robust power system dynamic state estimation using model transformation

Not Available

Wang, Xueyuan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optical variability of quasars with 20-yr photometric light curves

ABSTRACT We study the optical gri photometric variability of a sample of 190 quasars within the SDSS Stripe 82 region that have long-term photometric coverage during ∼1998−2020 with SDSS, PanSTARRS-1, the Dark Energy Survey, and dedicated follow-up monitoring with Blanco 4m/DECam. With on average ∼200 nightly epochs per quasar per filter band, we improve the parameter constraints from a Damped Random Walk (DRW) model fit to the light curves over previous studies with 10–15 yr baselines and ≲ 100 epochs. We find that the average damping time-scale τDRW continues to rise with increased baseline, reaching a median value of ∼750 d (g band) in the rest frame of these quasars using the 20-yr light curves. Some quasars may have gradual, long-term trends in their light curves, suggesting that either the DRW fit requires very long baselines to converge, or that the underlying variability is more complex than a single DRW process for these quasars. Using a subset of quasars with better-constrained τDRW (less than 20 per cent of the baseline), we confirm a weak wavelength dependence of τDRW∝λ0.51 ± 0.20. We further quantify optical variability of these quasars over days to decades time-scales using structure function (SF) and power spectrum density (PSD) analyses. The SF and PSD measurements qualitatively confirm the measured (hundreds of days) damping time-scales from the DRW fits. However, the ensemble PSD is steeper than that of a DRW on time-scales less than ∼ a month for these luminous quasars, and this second break point correlates with the longer DRW damping time-scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identification of short-range ordering motifs in semiconductors

Chemical short-range ordering is expected to be a key factor for tuning the electronic structure of semiconductors. However, experimental evidence of short-range ordering is still lacking due to the challenge of characterizing atomic-scale ordering motifs. Here, we determined the presence of short-range order in a ternary GeSiSn semiconductor system using advanced energy-filtered four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy and large-scale atomistic models generated by a machine learning neuroevolution potential of first-principles accuracy. This approach revealed preferred ordering of different atomic species with the dominant occurrence of Si–Ge–Sn triplets. Our findings not only confirmed the presence of short-range order but also directly revealed the actual atomic structure, demonstrating the potential for informed atomic order–based band engineering as a third degree of freedom beyond composition and strain tuning.

Vogl, Lilian M. [University of California Berkeley↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Iterative Approach for Solving the SCOPF Problem Applying LP, SOCP, and NLP Subproblems

We propose to develop efficient algorithms and software for the SCOPF problem. We will employ an iterative approach that will: a) use linear subproblems and other active set filtering techniques to identify the most important contingencies and drastically reduce the SCOPF model size; b) solve SOCP relaxations of the reduced SCOPF to converge to the neighborhood of the global optimal solution and establish a lower bound on the solution, and; c) use a non-convex, nonlinear interior-point solver, Artelys Knitro, to converge quickly to the optimal solution. To identify the most effective approach, we will experiment with several techniques to identify the tradeoffs between contingency subproblem complexity and fast solvability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

DER Inverter Control Fault Ride Through Model in Accordance with IEEE 1547-2018 Std

Distributed Energy Resources (DER) with smart inverters are becoming more prevalent as the need for renewable energy and grid stability increases. An important challenge arises when considering that inverterbased generation methods contribute less current during faults, rendering traditional overcurrent protection unsatisfactory. DERs have fault ride-through requirements when operating in high or low voltage, outlined by IEEE Std. 1547-2018. Faults cause the voltage to reach abnormal steady state magnitudes, depending on the fault resistance and fault type. There are several high voltage and low voltage ride-through zones defined by IEEE Std. 1547-2018. Each zone’s ride through duration decreases as the applicable voltage measurement, i.e., the phase RMS voltage, deviates from its nominal value. This presentation demonstrates the implementation of IEEE Std. 1547-2018 high and low voltage ridethrough grid support functions using a preexisting RSCAD model, discussing the challenges presented during this process. The implemented controls monitor the filtered phase voltages to have a more accurate reading of the applicable voltages. The controls sense the duration that the applicable voltage remains in a specific zone. The breaker trips and ceases energization to the grid when the duration is exceeded. The standard allows the operator to adjust the ride-through times and voltage zones from the default settings. These ranges are implemented into the runtime, which acts as the operator’s SCADA. The results show the accuracy of the voltage measurements, which remain within the IEEE Std. 1547-2018 for all cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗