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Assimilation of Microwave Observations in the Rainbands of Tropical Cyclones

We propose a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration (BMCI) technique to retrieve the profiles of temperature, water vapor, and cloud liquid/ice water content from microwave cloudy measurements in the presence of tropical cyclones (TC). These retrievals then can either be directly used by meteorologists to analyze the structure of TCs or be assimilated into numerical models to provide accurate initial conditions for the NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models. The BMCI technique is applied to the data from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) onboard Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). The retrieved profiles are then assimilated into Hurricane WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) using the GSI (Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation) data assimilation system.

Moradi, Isaac↗

Complementarities of GEO and LEO IR Sounders for Numerical Weather Prediction in an OSSE Framework

Preparations are underway for the United States’ weather satellite program and the expected advancements in the coming decade. Among these changes is the launch of the proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), coordinated with international counterparts, to form a global ring of hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders. Coincident with the progress of IR sounders from GEO platforms, the future of low Earth orbit (LEO) sounders is being re-envisioned after decades of beneficial impact in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. To address questions about the utility of the two platform types in concert, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework was used to examine the roles of GEO and LEO sounders and their impact on forecast error reduction. Overall, inclusion of both types of platforms in the satellite program produces the largest forecast error reduction with LEO sounders having a strong impact on global skill and GEO sounders providing the most benefit on the scale of targeted regions.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

High-Resolution Specification of the Land and Ocean Surface for Improving Regional Mesoscale Model Predictions

The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many meteorological processes. High-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), soil temperature and moisture content, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of sensible weather. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been conducting separate studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land-surface initialization data from the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS) on subsequent WRF forecasts, as well as the influence of initializing WRF with SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument. This current project addresses the combined impacts of using high-resolution lower boundary data over both land (LIS data) and water (MODIS SSTs) on the subsequent daily WRF forecasts over Florida during May 2004. For this experiment, the WRF model is configured to run on a nested domain with 9- km and 3-kin grid spacing, centered on the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. A control configuration of WRF is established to take all initial condition data from the NCEP Eta model. Meanwhile, two WRF experimental runs are configured to use high-resolution initialization data from (1) LIS land-surface data only, and (2) a combination of LIS data and high-resolution MODIS SST composites. The experiment involves running 24-hour simulations of the control WRF configuration, the MS-initialized WRF, and the LIS+MODIS-initialized WRF daily for the entire month of May 2004. All atmospheric data for initial and boundary conditions for the Control, LIS, and LIS+MODIS runs come from the NCEP Eta model on a 40-km grid. Verification statistics are generated at land surface observation sites and buoys, and the impacts of the high-resolution lower boundary data on the development and evolution of mesoscale circulations such as sea and land breezes are examined, This paper will present the results of these WRF modeling experiments using LIS and MODIS lower boundary datasets over the Florida peninsula during May 2004.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Hydrogen Cyanide in the Upper Troposphere: GEM-AQ Simulation and Comparison with ACE-FTS Observations

We investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) in the upper troposphere through numerical simulations and comparison with observations from a space-based instrument. To perform the simulations, we used the Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality model (GEM-AQ), which is based on the threedimensional Gobal multiscale model developed by the Meteorological Service of Canada for operational weather forecasting. The model was run for the period 2004-2006 on a 1.5deg x 1.5deg global grid with 28 hybrid vertical levels from the surface up to 10 hPa. Objective analysis data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre were used to update the meteorological fields every 24 h. Fire emission fluxes of gas species were generated by using year-specific inventories of carbon emissions with 8-day temporal resolution from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED) version 2. The model output is compared with HCN profiles measured by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) instrument onboard the Canadian SCISAT-1 satellite. High values of up to a few ppbv are observed in the tropics in the Southern Hemisphere; the enhancement in HCN volume mixing ratios in the upper troposphere is most prominent in October. Low upper-tropospheric mixing ratios of less than 100 pptv are mostly recorded at middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere in May-July. Mixing ratios in Northern Hemisphere peak in the boreal summer. The amplitude of the seasonal variation is less pronounced than in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison with the satellite data shows that in the upper troposphere GEM-AQ perform7s well globally for all seasons, except at northern hi gh and middle latitudes in surnmer, where the model has a large negative bias, and in the tropics in winter and spring, where it exhibits large positive bias. This may reflect inaccurate emissions or possible inaccuracies in the emission profile. The model is able to explain most of the observed variability in the upper troposphere HCN field, includin g the interannual variations in the observed mixing ratio. A complementary comparison with daily total columns of HCN from two middle latitude ground-based stations in Northern Japan for the same simulation period shows that the model captures the observed seasonal variation and also points to an underestimation of model emissions in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer. The estimated average global emission equals 1.3 Tg N/yr. The average atmospheric burden is 0.53 Tg N, and the corresponding lifetime is 4.9 months.

Lupu, A.↗

Approach to Integrate Global-Sun Models of Magnetic Flux Emergence and Transport for Space Weather Studies

The Sun lies at the center of space weather and is the source of its variability. The primary input to coronal and solar wind models is the activity of the magnetic field in the solar photosphere. Recent advancements in solar observations and numerical simulations provide a basis for developing physics-based models for the dynamics of the magnetic field from the deep convection zone of the Sun to the corona with the goal of providing robust near real-time boundary conditions at the base of space weather forecast models. The goal is to develop new strategic capabilities that enable characterization and prediction of the magnetic field structure and flow dynamics of the Sun by assimilating data from helioseismology and magnetic field observations into physics-based realistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. The integration of first-principle modeling of solar magnetism and flow dynamics with real-time observational data via advanced data assimilation methods is a new, transformative step in space weather research and prediction. This approach will substantially enhance an existing model of magnetic flux distribution and transport developed by the Air Force Research Lab. The development plan is to use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to develop Coupled Models for Emerging flux Simulations (CMES) that couples three existing models: (1) an MHD formulation with the anelastic approximation to simulate the deep convection zone (FSAM code), (2) an MHD formulation with full compressible Navier-Stokes equations and a detailed description of radiative transfer and thermodynamics to simulate near-surface convection and the photosphere (Stagger code), and (3) an MHD formulation with full, compressible Navier-Stokes equations and an approximate description of radiative transfer and heating to simulate the corona (Module in BATS-R-US). CMES will enable simulations of the emergence of magnetic structures from the deep convection zone to the corona. Finally, a plan will be summarized on the development of a Flux Emergence Prediction Tool (FEPT) in which helioseismology-derived data and vector magnetic maps are assimilated into CMES that couples the dynamics of magnetic flux from the deep interior to the corona.

Mansour, Nagi N.↗

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins,". As described in Kumar et al., 2007, and demonstrated in Case et al., 2008, and Santanello et al., 2009, LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling the enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation as described in Peters-Lidard et al. (2008) and Santanello et al. (2007), who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs. LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation (Kumar et al., 2008) using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature. Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation. Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeoroogical modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗

WSR-88D Cell Trends

This report documents the Applied Meteorology Unit's evaluation of the Cell Trends display as a tool for radar operators to use in their evaluation of storm cell strength. The objective of the evaluation is to assess the utility of the WSR-88D graphical Cell Trends display for local radar cell interpretation in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and National Weather Service (NWS) Melbourne (MLB) operational requirements. The analysis procedure was to identify each cell and track the maximum reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, storm top, storm base, hail and severe hail probability, cell-based Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) and core aspect ratio using WATADS Build 9.0 cell trends information. One problem noted in the analysis phase was that the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm had a difficult time tracking the small cells associated with the Florida weather regimes. The analysis indicated numerous occasions when a cell track would end or an existing cell would be give a new ID in the middle of its life cycle. This investigation has found that most cells, which produce hail or microburst events, have discernable Cell Trends signatures. Forecasters should monitor the PUP's Cell Trends display for cells that show rapid (1 scan) changes in both the heights of maximum reflectivity and cell-based VIEL. It is important to note that this a very limited data set (four case days). Fifty-two storm cells were analyzed during those four days. The above mentioned t=ds, increase in the two cell attributes for hail events and decrease in the two cell attributes for wind events were noted in most of the cells. The probability of detection was 88% for both events. The False Alarm Rate (FAR) was a 36% for hail events and a respectable 25% for microburst events. In addition the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) is 0.65 for hail events and 0.67 for microburst events. For random forecast the HSS is 0 and that a perfect score is 1.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

Modeling Bird Migration in Changing Habitats: Space-based Ornithology using Satellites and GIS

Understanding bird migration and avian biodiversity is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties presenting challenges in both geographic space and time. Space based technology, coupled with geographic information systems, yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At NASA, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. In our work, we use individual organism biophysical models and drive these models with satellite observations and numerical weather predictions of the spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat. Geographic information system technology comprises one component of our overall simulation framework, especially for characterizing the changing habitats and conditions encountered by en-route migratory birds. Simulation provides a tool for studying bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. Such models yield an understanding of how a migratory flyway and its component habitats function as a whole and link stop-over ecology with biological conservation and management. We present examples of our simulation of shorebirds, principally, pectoral sandpipers, along the central flyways of the United States and Canada from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Smith, James A.↗

High-Resolution Analysis Products to Support Severe Weather and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Threat Assessments over Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) located at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) implemented an operational configuration of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), as well as the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Operational, high-resolution ADAS analyses have been produced from this configuration at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) over the past several years. Since that time, ADAS fields have become an integral part of forecast operations at both NWS MLB and SMG. To continue providing additional utility, the AMU has been tasked to implement visualization products to assess the potential for supercell thunderstorms and significant tornadoes, and to improve assessments of short-term cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning potential. This paper and presentation focuses on the visualization products developed by the AMU for the operational high-resolution ADAS and AR.PS at the NWS MLB and SMG. The two severe weather threat graphics implemented within ADAS/ARPS are the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) and Significant Tornado Parameter (SIP). The SCP was designed to identify areas with supercell thunderstorm potential through a combination of several instability and shear parameters. The SIP was designed to identify areas that favor supercells producing significant tornadoes (F2 or greater intensity) versus non-tornadic supercells. Both indices were developed by the NOAAINWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and were normalized by key threshold values based on previous studies. The indices apply only to discrete storms, not other convective modes. In a post-analysis mode, the AMU calculated SCP and SIP for graphical output using an ADAS configuration similar to the operational set-ups at NWS MLB and SMG. Graphical images from ADAS were generated every 15 minutes for 13 August 2004, the day that Hurricane Charley approached and made landfall on the Florida peninsula. Several tornadoes struck the interior of the Florida peninsula in advance of Hurricane Charley's landfall during the daylight hours of 13 August. Since SPC had previously examined this case using SCP and SIP graphics generated from output of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model, this day served as a good benchmark to compare and validate the high-resolution ADAS graphics against the smoother RUC analyses, which serves as background fields to the ADAS analyses. The ADAS-generated SCP and STP graphics have been integrated into the suite of products examined operationally by NWS MLB forecasters and are used to provide additional guidance for assessment of the near-storm environment during convective situations.

Case, Jonathan↗

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗

An evaluation of the synoptic- and mesoscale predictability of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0) model

A report is presented regarding the synoptic- and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a regional-scale numerical weather prediction model known as the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS, Version 2.0). The development of this model has been discussed by Kaplan et al. (1982). An evaluation of the performance of MASS 2.0 is based on the study of a sample of approximately thirty 12 h and 24 h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns over the U.S. during spring and early summer of 1982. A description of model systems is provided, and synoptic-scale evaluation methods are considered along with aspects of mesoscale evaluation methodology, examples of coherent mesoscale information provided by MASS 2.0, the results of a diagnostic study of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), and the results of a limited real-time forecast experiment.

Koch, S. E.↗

Application of Suomi-NPP Green Vegetation Fraction and NUCAPS for Improving Regional Numerical Weather Prediction

The NASA SPoRT Center is working to incorporate Suomi‐NPP products into its research and transition activities to improve regional numerical weather prediction (NWP). Specifically, SPoRT seeks to utilize two data products from NOAA/NESDIS: (1) daily global VIIRS green vegetation fraction (GVF), and (2) NOAA Unique CrIS and ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture retrieved profiles. The goal of (1) is to improve the representation of vegetation in the Noah land surface model (LSM) over existing climatological GVF datasets in order to improve the land‐atmosphere energy exchanges in NWP models and produce better temperature, moisture, and precipitation forecasts. The goal of (2) is to assimilate NUCAPS retrieved profiles into the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system to assess the impact on a summer pre‐frontal convection case. Most regional NWP applications make use of a monthly GVF climatology for use in the Noah LSM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GVF partitions incoming energy into direct surface heating/evaporation over bare soil versus evapotranspiration processes over vegetated surfaces. Misrepresentations of the fractional coverage of vegetation during anomalous weather/climate regimes (e.g., early/late bloom or freeze; drought) can lead to poor NWP model results when land‐atmosphere feedback is important. SPoRT has been producing a daily MODIS GVF product based on the University of Wisconsin Direct Broadcast swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). While positive impacts have been demonstrated in the WRF model for some cases, the reflectances composing these NDVI do not correct for atmospheric aerosols nor satellite view angle, resulting in temporal noisiness at certain locations (especially heavy vegetation). The method behind the NESDIS VIIRS GVF is expected to alleviate the issues seen in the MODIS GVF real‐time product, thereby offering a higher‐quality dataset for modeling applications. SPoRT is evaluating the VIIRS GVF data against the MODIS real‐time and climatology GVF in both WRF and the NASA Land Information System. SPoRT has a history of assimilating hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles

Numerical Weather Prediction↗

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) for the GOES-R Series Next Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Constellation

The next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2015 is a follow on to the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. The system will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. The system provides products including lightning, cloud properties, rainfall rate, volcanic ash, air quality, hurricane intensity, and fire/hot spot characterization. Advancements over current GOES include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution for the 16-channel Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), an optical transient detector will map total (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning flashes continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions, from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the higher level algorithms and applications using the GLM alone and decision aids incorporating information from the ABI, ground-based weather radar, and numerical models. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional lightning networks are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time total lightning mapping data are also being provided in an experimental mode to selected National Weather Service (NWS) national centers and forecast offices via the GOES-R Proving Ground to help improve our understanding of the application of these data in operational settings and facilitate early on-orbit user readiness for this new capability.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Treatment of cloudiness in regional scale - Numerical weather prediction models

A numerical weather prediction model is considered in which cloud water and precipitation are explicitly predicted as functions of three space dimensions and time. Approximations in the thermodynamic and continuity equations are discussed in detail, as well as the cumulus parameterization and the cloud microphysics parameterization. An example of a real-data forecast indicates that very accurate quantitative precipitation and cloud cover forecasts are possible using initial observations from only the relatively sparse rawinsonde network in the U.S.

Kreitzberg, C. W.↗

Winter QPF Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

Steady increases in computing power have allowed for numerical weather prediction models to be initialized and run at high spatial resolution, permitting a transition from larger scale parameterizations of the effects of clouds and precipitation to the simulation of specific microphysical processes and hydrometeor size distributions. Although still relatively coarse in comparison to true cloud resolving models, these high resolution forecasts (on the order of 4 km or less) have demonstrated value in the prediction of severe storm mode and evolution and are being explored for use in winter weather events . Several single-moment bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the latest release of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model suite, including the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, which incorporate some assumptions in the size distribution of a small number of hydrometeor classes in order to predict their evolution, advection and precipitation within the forecast domain. Although many of these schemes produce similar forecasts of events on the synoptic scale, there are often significant details regarding precipitation and cloud cover, as well as the distribution of water mass among the constituent hydrometeor classes. Unfortunately, validating data for cloud resolving model simulations are sparse. Field campaigns require in-cloud measurements of hydrometeors from aircraft in coordination with extensive and coincident ground based measurements. Radar remote sensing is utilized to detect the spatial coverage and structure of precipitation. Here, two radar systems characterize the structure of winter precipitation for comparison to equivalent features within a forecast model: a 3 GHz, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) based in Omaha, Nebraska, and the 94 GHz NASA CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, a spaceborne instrument and member of the afternoon or "A-Train" of polar orbiting satellites tasked with cataloguing global cloud characteristics. Each system provides a unique perspective. The WSR-88D operates in a surveillance mode, sampling cloud volumes of Rayleigh scatterers where reflectivity is proportional to the sixth moment of the size distribution of equivalent spheres. The CloudSat radar provides enhanced sensitivity to smaller cloud ice crystals aloft, as well as consistent vertical profiles along each orbit. However, CloudSat reflectivity signatures are complicated somewhat by resonant Mie scattering effects and significant attenuation in the presence of cloud or rain water. Here, both radar systems are applied to a case of light to moderate snowfall within the warm frontal zone of a cold season, synoptic scale storm. Radars allow for an evaluation of the accuracy of a single-moment scheme in replicating precipitation structures, based on the bulk statistical properties of precipitation as suggested by reflectivity signatures.

Molthan, Andrew↗

The GOES-R Lightning Mapper Sensor

The Lightning Mapper Sensor on GOES-R builds on previous measurements of lightning from low earth orbit by the OTD (Optical Transient Detector) and LIS (Lightning Imaging Sensor) sensors. Unlike observations from low earth orbit, the GOES-R platform will allow continuous monitoring of lightning activity over the Continental United States and southern Canada, Central and South America, and portions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The LMS will detect total (cloud-to-ground and intracloud) lightning at storm scale resolution (approx. 8 km) using a highly sensitive Charge Coupled Device (CCD) detector array. Discrimination between lightning optical transients and a bright sunlit background scene is accomplished by employing spectral, spatial, and temporal filtering along with a background subtraction technique. The result is 24 hour detection capability of total lightning. These total lightning observations can be made available to users within about 20 seconds. Research indicates a number of ways that total lightning observations from LMS could benefit operational activities, including 1) potential increases in lead times and reduced false alarms for severe thunderstorm and tornado Warnings, 2) improved routing of &rail around thunderstorms, 3) support for spacecraft launches and landings, 4) improved ability to monitor tropical cyclone intensity, 5) ability to monitor thunderstorm intensification/weakening during radar outages or where radar coverage is poor, 6) better identification of deep convection for the initialization of numerical prediction models, 7) improved forest fire forecasts, 8) identification of convective initiation, 9) identification of heavy convective snowfall, and 10) enhanced temporal resolution of storm evolution (1 minute) than is available from radar observations. Total lightning data has been used in an operational environment since July 2003 at the Huntsville, Alabama National Weather Service office. Total lightning measurements are obtained by the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and have successfully been used in warning decisions. Every 2 minutes, total lightning counts in 2 km by 2 km horizontal, 1 km vertical grids are available to forecasters on an AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) workstation. Experience with the LMA total lightning data is used to illustrate the potential use of LMS data that would be available to forecasters across the US. This abstract is for submission as a presentation to the National Weather Association Annual Meeting to be held 16-21 October 2004 in Portland, OR. This abstract will be published in the conference proceedings.

Buechler, Dennis↗

Diagnosing Aircraft Icing Potential from Satellite Cloud Retrievals

The threat for aircraft icing in clouds is a significant hazard that routinely impacts aviation operations. Accurate diagnoses and forecasts of aircraft icing conditions requires identifying the location and vertical distribution of clouds with super-cooled liquid water (SLW) droplets, as well as the characteristics of the droplet size distribution. Traditional forecasting methods rely on guidance from numerical models and conventional observations, neither of which currently resolve cloud properties adequately on the optimal scales needed for aviation. Satellite imagers provide measurements over large areas with high spatial resolution that can be interpreted to identify the locations and characteristics of clouds, including features associated with adverse weather and storms. This paper describes new techniques for interpreting cloud products derived from satellite data to infer the flight icing threat to aircraft. For unobscured low clouds, the icing threat is determined using empirical relationships developed from correlations between satellite imager retrievals of liquid water path and droplet size with icing conditions reported by pilots (PIREPS). For deep ice over water cloud systems, ice and liquid water content (IWC and LWC) profiles are derived by using the imager cloud properties to constrain climatological information on cloud vertical structure and water phase obtained apriori from radar and lidar observations, and from cloud model analyses. Retrievals of the SLW content embedded within overlapping clouds are mapped to the icing threat using guidance from an airfoil modeling study. Compared to PIREPS and ground-based icing remote sensing datasets, the satellite icing detection and intensity accuracies are approximately 90% and 70%, respectively, and found to be similar for both low level and deep ice over water cloud systems. The satellite-derived icing boundaries capture the reported altitudes over 90% of the time. Satellite analyses corresponding to the time and location of several recent aviation accidents and with icing PIREPS are also presented that reveal skill in identifying severe icing conditions. These results demonstrate the utility of satellite cloud retrievals for quantitatively diagnosing the potential for icing conditions on temporal and spatial scales that should be useful to the aviation community. Plans are being developed to deliver these new satellite products to the GOES-R Proving Ground in the near future so that they can be evaluated in operational applications.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗

Microphysics in Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling Systems

Advances in computing power allow atmospheric prediction and general circulation models to be run at progressively finer scales of resolution, using increasingly more sophisticated physical parameterizations. The representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of key components of these models. In addition, over the past decade both research and operational numerical weather prediction models have started using more complex microphysical schemes that were originally developed for high-resolution cloud-resolving models (CRMs). In the paper, we described different microphysics schemes that are used in Goddard Multi-scale Modeling System. There are three major models, Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE), NASA Unified Weather Research Forecast (NU-WRF) and Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) model, in this modeling system. The microphysics schemes are Goddard three class ice (3ICE) and four class (4ICE) scheme, Morrison two moments (2M) 3ICE, Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) 2M five class ice (5ICE) and spectral bin microphysics schemes. The performance of these schemes are examined and compared with radar and satellite observation. In addition, the inter-comparison with different microphysics schemes are conducted. Current and future observations needed for microphysics schemes evaluation as well as major characteristics of current microphysics are discussed.

Tao, W.-K.↗