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DOE OSTI2025

Electric Grid Reliability in an Era of Unprecedented Uncertainty: A Review of Advances in Electric Sector Resource Adequacy Assessment and Planning

Recent changes to the principal causes of energy shortage events on the electric grid have necessitated are thinking of paradigms for resource adequacy (RA) assessment and the related topic of procurement of a reliable portfolio. Prior studies have laid out elements of a modern paradigm for these planning activities, but there does not exist a comprehensive overview of the topic spanning academic and gray literature, and the relationship of these suggested paradigms to methods used in industry has also not been surveyed. In this paper we review recent literature establishing best practices for RA assessment and reliable portfolio procurement, and survey current practices used in industry in relation to these best practices. We establish seven key best practices for RA assessment, cover a modern methodology for capacity accreditation, and find that industry practices are not far behind the identified best practices, though some key gaps remain. We also present a suggested agenda for both academic research on the topic and opportunities for advancement in the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Accurate material characterization and model calibration are pivotal for simulations used for high-consequence engineering decisions. Current characterization and calibration methods (1) use simplified test specimen geometries and global data, (2) cannot guarantee that sufficient characterization data is collected for a specific model of interest, (3) provide only mean parameter values with no uncertainty quantification, and (4) are sequential, inflexible, and time-consuming. This work developed a new paradigm—coined Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—which drives forward the state-of-the-art in model calibration by bringing together recent advancements into one improved workflow. The ICC paradigm (1) employs tools to efficiently use full-field data to calibrate high-fidelity material models, (2) aligns the data needed with the data collected by adopting an optimal experimental design protocol, (3) provides uncertainty metrics on the calibrated model parameters, and (4) incorporates these advances into a quasi real-time feedback loop. The ICC framework was validated synthetically with both low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations paired with several different elastoplastic material models, and was also demonstrated experimentally with an aluminum 6061 cruciform exemplar specimen. Results showed that the ICC framework—in which Bayesian optimal experimental design actively guided the experiment— resulted in calibrations with similar or better accuracy than predetermined experiments based on subject matter expertise. Moreover, the ICC framework produced a complete model calibration— with quantified uncertainties on model parameters—in 1 week, a 5 - 10× increase in efficiency over traditional approaches. Thus, the ICC paradigm improves both the calibration process and quality, by (1) improving efficiency, which increases agility of solid mechanics modeling and enables utilization of computational simulation (CompSim) at earlier stages of the design cycle and (2) providing quantified, and in some cases reduced, parameter uncertainties, which increases confidence in model predictions and supports credible decision making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Information Encoding and Decoding for Quantum Sensi

This two-year theory project focused on theoretical investigations of novel paradigms for quantum sensing, building on information encoding and techniques from quantum error correction, quantum computing and other quantum information domains. The outcomes facilitate quantum information technology development, especially at the interface of quantum computing and quantum sensing. The results of the project show new use cases and new paradigms for quantum sensing beyond what has so far been considered. One outcome shows how quantum sensing opens new opportunities for fundamental physics such as the capability of single graviton detection. Another outcome reveals a new application of NISQ quantum computers with error correction for metrology, building on recent advances in practical quantum error correction implementation. The third outcome of the project creates new paradigms of back-action-evading sensing inspired by collective quantum information encoding, which achieves quantum sensing beyond the quantum limit without the use of entanglement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neural network approaches for parameterized optimal control

Here, we consider numerical approaches for deterministic, finite-dimensional optimal control problems whose dynamics depend on unknown or uncertain parameters. We seek to amortize the solution over a set of relevant parameters in an offline stage to enable rapid decision-making and be able to react to changes in the parameter in the online stage. To tackle the curse of dimensionality arising when the state and/or parameter are high-dimensional, we represent the policy using neural networks. We compare two training paradigms: First, our model-based approach leverages the dynamics and definition of the objective function to learn the value function of the parameterized optimal control problem and obtain the policy using a feedback form. Second, we use actor-critic reinforcement learning to approximate the policy in a data-driven way. Using an example involving a two-dimensional convection-diffusion equation, which features high-dimensional state and parameter spaces, we investigate the accuracy and efficiency of both training paradigms. While both paradigms lead to a reasonable approximation of the policy, the model-based approach is more accurate and considerably reduces the number of PDE solves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1983

Prebiotic organic syntheses and the origin of life

The outline of a modern paradigm for the origins of life on earth was first formulated by Oparin (1924). According to the considered hypothesis, living organisms arose naturally on the primitive earth through a lengthy process of chemical evolution of organic matter which began in the atmosphere and culminated in the primordial seas. Details regarding the chemical evolution paradigm are discussed, and chemical evolutionary processes formulated by principal contributors are reviewed in a historical context. Attention is given to the Oparin model of the prebiotic earth, the Urey model, the Rubey model, a multistage model for early atmospheric evolution, and other variations on the theme of prebiotic atmospheres. Evidence in support of the chemical evolution paradigm is considered along with modern models regarding the accretion of earth and the formation of its core, and problems and prospects for future studies.

Chang, S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Beyond singular values and loop shapes

The status of singular value loop-shaping as a design paradigm for multivariable feedback systems is reviewed. It shows that this paradigm is an effective design tool whenever the problem specifications are spacially round. The tool can be arbitrarily conservative, however, when they are not. This happens because singular value conditions for robust performance are not tight (necessary and sufficient) and can severely overstate actual requirements. An alternate paradign is discussed which overcomes these limitations. The alternative includes a more general problem formulation, a new matrix function mu, and tight conditions for both robust stability and robust performance. The state of the art currently permits analysis of feedback systems within this new paradigm. Synthesis remains a subject of research.

Stein, G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Measuring the software process and product: Lessons learned in the SEL

The software development process and product can and should be measured. The software measurement process at the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) has taught a major lesson: develop a goal-driven paradigm (also characterized as a goal/question/metric paradigm) for data collection. Project analysis under this paradigm leads to a design for evaluating and improving the methodology of software development and maintenance.

Basili, V. R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Blackboard architectures and their relationship to autonomous space systems

The blackboard architecture provides a powerful paradigm for the autonomy expected in future spaceborne systems, especially SDI and Space Station. Autonomous systems will require skill in both the classic task of information analysis and the newer tasks of decision making, planning and system control. Successful blackboard systems have been built to deal with each of these tasks separately. The blackboard paradigm achieves success in difficult domains through its ability to integrate several uncertain sources of knowledge. In addition to flexible behavior during autonomous operation, the system must also be capable of incrementally growing from semiautonomy to full autonomy. The blackboard structure allows this development. The blackboard's ability to handle error, its flexible execution, and variants of this paradigm are discussed as they apply to specific problems of the space environment.

Thornbrugh, Allison↗

NASA NTRS1989

Integrating automated support for a software management cycle into the TAME system

Software managers are interested in the quantitative management of software quality, cost and progress. An integrated software management methodology, which can be applied throughout the software life cycle for any number purposes, is required. The TAME (Tailoring A Measurement Environment) methodology is based on the improvement paradigm and the goal/question/metric (GQM) paradigm. This methodology helps generate a software engineering process and measurement environment based on the project characteristics. The SQMAR (software quality measurement and assurance technology) is a software quality metric system and methodology applied to the development processes. It is based on the feed forward control principle. Quality target setting is carried out before the plan-do-check-action activities are performed. These methodologies are integrated to realize goal oriented measurement, process control and visual management. A metric setting procedure based on the GQM paradigm, a management system called the software management cycle (SMC), and its application to a case study based on NASA/SEL data are discussed. The expected effects of SMC are quality improvement, managerial cost reduction, accumulation and reuse of experience, and a highly visual management reporting system.

Sunazuka, Toshihiko↗

NASA NTRS1989

Minimal complexity control law synthesis

A paradigm for control law design for modern engineering systems is proposed: Minimize control law complexity subject to the achievement of a specified accuracy in the face of a specified level of uncertainty. Correspondingly, the overall goal is to make progress towards the development of a control law design methodology which supports this paradigm. Researchers achieve this goal by developing a general theory of optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback compensation, where here constrained-structure means that the dynamic-structure (e.g., dynamic order, pole locations, zero locations, etc.) of the output feedback compensation is constrained in some way. By applying this theory in an innovative fashion, where here the indicated iteration occurs over the choice of the compensator dynamic-structure, the paradigm stated above can, in principle, be realized. The optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback problem is formulated in general terms. An elegant method for reducing optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback problems to optimal static output feedback problems is then developed. This reduction procedure makes use of star products, linear fractional transformations, and linear fractional decompositions, and yields as a byproduct a complete characterization of the class of optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback problems which can be reduced to optimal static output feedback problems. Issues such as operational/physical constraints, operating-point variations, and processor throughput/memory limitations are considered, and it is shown how anti-windup/bumpless transfer, gain-scheduling, and digital processor implementation can be facilitated by constraining the controller dynamic-structure in an appropriate fashion.

Bernstein, Dennis S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Documenting the decision structure in software development

Current software development paradigms focus on the products of the development process. Much of the decision making process which produces these products is outside the scope of these paradigms. The Decision-Based Software Development (DBSD) paradigm views the design process as a series of interrelated decisions which involve the identification and articulation of problems, alternates, solutions and justifications. Decisions made by programmers and analysts are recorded in a project data base. Unresolved problems are also recorded and resources for their resolution are allocated by management according to the overall development strategy. This decision structure is linked to the products affected by the relevant decision and provides a process oriented view of the resulted system. Software maintenance uses this decision view of the system to understand the rationale behind the decisions affecting the part of the system to be modified. D-HyperCase, a prototype Decision-Based Hypermedia System is described and results of applying the DBSD approach during its development are presented.

Wild, J. Christian↗

NASA NTRS1989

Video-task assessment of learning and memory in Macaques (Macaca mulatta) - Effects of stimulus movement on performance

Effects of stimulus movement on learning, transfer, matching, and short-term memory performance were assessed with 2 monkeys using a video-task paradigm in which the animals responded to computer-generated images by manipulating a joystick. Performance on tests of learning set, transfer index, matching to sample, and delayed matching to sample in the video-task paradigm was comparable to that obtained in previous investigations using the Wisconsin General Testing Apparatus. Additionally, learning, transfer, and matching were reliably and significantly better when the stimuli or discriminanda moved than when the stimuli were stationary. External manipulations such as stimulus movement may increase attention to the demands of a task, which in turn should increase the efficiency of learning. These findings have implications for the investigation of learning in other populations, as well as for the application of the video-task paradigm to comparative study.

Washburn, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Experiments in thrusterless robot locomotion control for space applications

While performing complex assembly tasks or moving about in space, a space robot should minimize the amount of propellant consumed. A study is presented of space robot locomotion and orientation without the use of thrusters. The goal was to design a robot control paradigm that will perform thrusterless locomotion between two points on a structure, and to implement this paradigm on an experimental robot. A two arm free flying robot was constructed which floats on a cushion of air to simulate in 2-D the drag free, zero-g environment of space. The robot can impart momentum to itself by pushing off from an external structure in a coordinated two arm maneuver, and can then reorient itself by activating a momentum wheel. The controller design consists of two parts: a high level strategic controller and a low level dynamic controller. The control paradigm was verified experimentally by commanding the robot to push off from a structure with both arms, rotate 180 degs while translating freely, and then to catch itself on another structure. This method, based on the computed torque, provides a linear feedback law in momentum and its derivatives for a system of rigid bodies.

Jasper, Warren Joseph↗

NASA NTRS1991

Beyond formalism

The ongoing debate over the role of formalism and formal specifications in software features many speakers with diverse positions. Yet, in the end, they share the conviction that the requirements of a software system can be unambiguously specified, that acceptable software is a product demonstrably meeting the specifications, and that the design process can be carried out with little interaction between designers and users once the specification has been agreed to. This conviction is part of a larger paradigm prevalent in American management thinking, which holds that organizations are systems that can be precisely specified and optimized. This paradigm, which traces historically to the works of Frederick Taylor in the early 1900s, is no longer sufficient for organizations and software systems today. In the domain of software, a new paradigm, called user-centered design, overcomes the limitations of pure formalism. Pioneered in Scandinavia, user-centered design is spreading through Europe and is beginning to make its way into the U.S.

Denning, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Beyond singular values and loop shapes

Stein, Gunter↗

NASA NTRS1990

Information technologies for astrophysics circa 2001

It is easy to extrapolate current trends to see where technologies relating to information systems in astrophysics and other disciplines will be by the end of the decade. These technologies include mineaturization, multiprocessing, software technology, networking, databases, graphics, pattern computation, and interdisciplinary studies. It is easy to see what limits our current paradigms place on our thinking about technologies that will allow us to understand the laws governing very large systems about which we have large datasets. Three limiting paradigms are saving all the bits collected by instruments or generated by supercomputers; obtaining technology for information compression, storage and retrieval off the shelf; and the linear mode of innovation. We must extend these paradigms to meet our goals for information technology at the end of the decade.

Denning, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Object oriented development of engineering software using CLIPS

Engineering applications involve numeric complexity and manipulations of a large amount of data. Traditionally, numeric computation has been the concern in developing an engineering software. As engineering application software became larger and more complex, management of resources such as data, rather than the numeric complexity, has become the major software design problem. Object oriented design and implementation methodologies can improve the reliability, flexibility, and maintainability of the resulting software; however, some tasks are better solved with the traditional procedural paradigm. The C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS), with deffunction and defgeneric constructs, supports the procedural paradigm. The natural blending of object oriented and procedural paradigms has been cited as the reason for the popularity of the C++ language. The CLIPS Object Oriented Language's (COOL) object oriented features are more versatile than C++'s. A software design methodology based on object oriented and procedural approaches appropriate for engineering software, and to be implemented in CLIPS was outlined. A method for sensor placement for Space Station Freedom is being implemented in COOL as a sample problem.

Yoon, C. John↗

NASA NTRS1992

Organizational change: Incentives and resistance

Topics concerning Space Exploration Initiative technical interchange are presented in viewgraph form and include the following: models of change, elements of the current period, the signs of change, leaders' contribution, paradigms - our worldview, paradigm change, the effects of revealing paradigms, a checklist for change, and organizational control.

Bishop, Peter C.↗