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DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Space Heating Options on Electricity Rates and Affordability

Electricity prices have increased in many regions of the U.S., with a national average of 18 cents/kWh projected for 2026, up from 16 cents/kWh in 2020. While the increases can be attributed to a number of factors, increasing electricity use in an efficient and strategic manner - with energy efficient building envelope upgrades and high performance HVAC systems - has the potential to increase revenue for utilities without significantly increasing electricity demand, and therefore could help moderate rate increases. This effect has been studied for electric vehicle charging[1] and dual-fuel heat pumps in Minnesota[2]. Leveraging a recently developed system cost methodology and FERC data on utility revenue, spending, and profits, this poster will present the direction and relative magnitude of rate impacts for efficient space heating upgrades in utility balancing areas across the contiguous U.S., using current prices and showing how the rate impacts would evolve under future grid scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Opportunity Analysis for Local Power Generation in Falls City, Nebraska

Falls City is a small community in Nebraska interested in understanding how energy from local energy systems could support the community's economic development planning. To address the current community needs and address the future energy demand technical assistance conducted through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP) assessed the technical and economic opportunities of adding energy technologies to Falls City's municipally owned and operated electric utility system. The modeling performed considered the technical and economic feasibility of technologies using the System Advisor Model (SAM). The modeling explored three technology configurations using multiple years of historical weather and wholesale cost data (2015-2022 & a typical meteorological year), and two different wholesale escalation rates (0.3% and 2.5%). Wholesale energy prices were based on the Southwest Power Pool's (SPP) real-time energy market and the annual escalation rates of these rates based on historical SPP wholesale and national retail electricity price trends. Results from the modeling showed that at current CAPEX costs and SPP wholesale electricity costs no technology combination averaged across the scenarios run provide a positive net present value (NPV). External financial support, changes in market conditions, and additional revenue streams would help create more economically favorable projects. As conditions change re-evaluation may be necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Infrastructures for Processing Plastic Waste using Pyrolysis-Based Chemical Upcycling Pathways

Modern mechanical recycling infrastructure for plastic is capable of processing only a small subset of waste plastics, reinforcing the need for parallel disposal methods such as landfilling and incineration. Emerging pyrolysis-based chemical technologies can "upcycle" plastic waste into high-value polymer and chemical products and process a broader range of waste plastics. In this work, we study the economic and environmental benefits of deploying an upcycling infrastructure in the continental United States for producing low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and polypropylene (PP) from post-consumer mixed plastic waste. Our analysis aims to determine the market size that the infrastructure can create, the degree of circularity that it can achieve, the prices for waste and derived products it can propagate, and the environmental benefits of diverting plastic waste from landfill and incineration facilities it can produce. We apply a computational framework that integrates techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment, and value chain optimization. Our results demonstrate that the infrastructure generates an economy of nearly 20 billion USD and positive prices for plastic waste, opening opportunities for compensation to residents who provide plastic waste. Our analysis also indicates that the infrastructure can achieve a plastic-to-plastic degree of circularity of 34% and remains viable under various external factors (including technology efficiencies, capital investment budgets, and polymer market values). Finally, we present significant environmental benefits of upcycling over alternative landfill and incineration waste disposal methods, and comment on ongoing work expanding our modeling methodology to other chemical upcycling pathway case studies, including hydroformylation of specific plastics to chemicals.

Interdisciplinary↗

DOE OSTI2024

Conceptual Design of Integrated Energy Systems with Market Interaction Surrogate Models

Most integrated energy system (IES) optimization frameworks employ the price-taker approximation, which ignores important interactions with the market and can result in overestimated economic values. In this work, we propose a machine learning surrogate-assisted optimization framework to quantify IES/market interactions and thus go beyond price-taker. We use time series clustering to generate representative IES operation profiles for the optimization problem and use machine learning surrogate models to predict the IES/market interaction. We quantify the accuracy of the time series clustering and surrogate models in a case study to optimally retrofit a nuclear power plant with a polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer to co-produce electricity and hydrogen.

Chen, Xinhe↗

NASA NTRS1969

Syllabus on low-noise microwave devices.

Low noise microwave devices performance and price, discussing transistor and tunnel diode amplifiers, traveling wave tubes and price reductions via manufacturing methods

Feldman, N. E.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Investigation of low-cost ablative heat shield fabrication for space shuttles

Improvements in the processes and design to reduce the manufacturing costs for low density ablative panels for the space shuttle are discussed. The areas that were studied included methods of loading honeycomb core, alternative reinforcement concepts, and the use of reusable subpanels. A review of previous studies on the fabrication of low-cost ablative panels and on permissible defects that do not affect thermal performance was conducted. Considerable differences in the quoted prices for ablative panels, even though the various contractors had reported similar fabrication times were discovered. How these cost differences arise from different estimating criteria and which estimating assumptions and other costs must be included in order to arrive at a realistic price are discussed.

Chandler, H. H.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Basic Economic Principles

An economic approach to design efficient transportation systems involves maximizing an objective function that reflects both goals and costs. A demand curve can be derived by finding the quantities of a good that solve the maximization problem as one varies the price of that commodity, holding income and the prices of all other goods constant. A supply curve is derived by applying the idea of profit maximization of firms. The production function determines the relationship between input and output.

Tideman, T. N.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Comparative airship economics

As future LTA vehicles will be doomed right from the start if they do not fill a real need, some differences in transport philosophy between design engineers on the one hand and freight forwarders on the other are discussed. Watching rising costs of energy necessary to transport our cargo from A to B, and realizing that this price of energy is always included in the product's selling price at B, the apparent correlation between installed specific tractive force per unit of cargo weight and pure freighting cost are contemplated. Very speedy and progressive Airship designs are mistrusted, because the key to any low cost transport tool is to design it for its given task only, without any unnecessary sophistication.

Harthoorn, R.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Economics

Tables covering the selling price of hydrogen as a function of each process temperature studied are presented. Estimated selling price, based on capital costs and operating and maintenance costs, is included. In all cases, no credit was given for the methane component of hydrogen.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1975

The political economy of conservation

A political economic purview of energy conservation in the United States was delineated. The concepts of substitution and elasticity are distinguished, and further distinctions are made between short run price elasticity, cross price elasticity, and available fund elasticity. An assessment of the role which cost factors can play in conservation is given. The structure of the petroleum industry and foreign petroleum resources is discussed. Also discussed is the role of government, industry and the consumer with the economic sphere.

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NASA NTRS1975

Energy conservation and the residential and commercial sector

A detailed analysis of energy conservation actions relevant to the residential and commercial sector has led to the conclusion that the potential for savings is great. The task will not be easy, however, since many of the actions require significant life style changes that are difficult to accomplish. Furthermore, many of the conservation actions cited as instant solutions to the energy crisis are those with only mid to long term potential, such as solar energy or heat pumps. Three significant conservation approaches are viable: adjusting price structure, mandating actions, and educating consumers. The first two appear to be the most feasible. But they are not without a price. Higher utility bills adversely affect the poor and the elderly on fixed incomes. Likewise, strict mandatory measures can be quite distasteful. But the effect of alternatives, such as voluntary savings accomplished through education processes, is minimal in a nation without a true conservation ethic.

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NASA NTRS1976

A preliminary assessment of the feasibility of deriving liquid and gaseous fuels from grown and waste organics

The anticipated depletion of our resources of natural gas and petroleum in a few decades has caused a search for renewable sources of fuel. Among the possibilities is the chemical conversion of waste and grown organic matter into gaseous or liquid fuels. The overall feasibility of such a system is considered from the technical, economic, and social viewpoints. Although there are a number of difficult problems to overcome, this preliminary study indicates that this option could provide between 4 and 10 percent of the U.S. energy needs. Estimated costs of fuels derived from grown organic material are appreciably higher than today's market price for fossil fuel. The cost of fuel derived from waste organics is competitive with fossil fuel prices. Economic and social reasons will prohibit the allocation of good food producing land to fuel crop production.

Graham, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1975

United States benefits of improved worldwide wheat crop information from a LANDSAT system

The value of worldwide information improvements on wheat crops, promised by LANDSAT, is measured in the context of world wheat markets. These benefits are based on current LANDSAT technical goals and assume that information is made available to all (United States and other countries) at the same time. A detailed empirical sample demonstration of the effect of improved information is given; the history of wheat commodity prices for 1971-72 is reconstructed and the price changes from improved vs. historical information are compared. The improved crop forecasting from a LANDSAT system assumed include wheat crop estimates of 90 percent accuracy for each major wheat producing region. Accurate, objective worldwide wheat crop information using space systems may have a very stabilizing influence on world commodity markets, in part making possible the establishment of long-term, stable trade relationships.

Heiss, K. P.↗

NASA NTRS1976

An inexpensive economical solar heating system for homes

A low-cost solar home heating system to supplement existing warm-air heating systems is described. The report is written in three parts: (1) a brief background on solar heating, (2) experience with a demonstration system, and (3) information for the homeowner who wishes to construct such a system. Instructions are given for a solar heating installation in which the homeowner supplies all labor necessary to install off-the-shelf components estimated to cost $2,000. These components, which include solar collector, heat exchanger, water pump, storage tank, piping, and controls to make the system completely automatic, are available at local lumber yards, hardware stores, and plumbing supply stores, and are relatively simple to install. Manufacturers and prices of each component used and a rough cost analysis based on these prices are included. This report also gives performance data obtained from a demonstration system which was built and tested at the Langley Research Center.

Allred, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Energy consumption characteristics of transports using the prop-fan concept

The fuel saving and economic potentials of the prop-fan high-speed propeller concept were evaluated for twin-engine commercial transport airplanes designed for 3333.6 km range, 180 passengers, and Mach 0.8 cruise. A fuel saving of 9.7% at the design range was estimated for a prop-fan airplane having wing-mounted engines, while a 5.8% saving was estimated for a design having the engines mounted on the aft body. The fuel savings and cost were found to be sensitive to the propeller noise level and to aerodynamic drag effects due to wing-slipstream interaction. Uncertainties in these effects could change the fuel savings as much as + or - 50%. A modest improvement in direct operating cost (DOC) was estimated for the wing-mounted prop-fan at current fuel prices. This improvement could become substantial in the event of further relative increases in the price of oil. The improvement in DOC requires the achievement of the nominal fuel saving and reductions in propeller and gearbox maintenance costs relative to current experience.

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NASA NTRS1977

Solar energy in buildings: Implications for California energy policy

An assessment of the potential of active solar energy systems for buildings in California is summarized. The technology used for solar heating, cooling, and water heating in buildings is discussed. The major California weather zones and the solar energy designs are described, as well as the sizing of solar energy systems and their performance. The cost of solar energy systems is given both at current prices and at prices consistent with optimistic estimates for the cost of collectors. The main institutional barriers to the wide spread use of solar energy are summarized.

Hirshberg, A. S.↗

NASA NTRS1976

United States benefits of improved worldwide wheat crop information from a LANDSAT system overview

The value of improvements in worldwide information on wheat crops provided by LANDSAT was measured in the context of world wheat markets. These benefits were based on exiting LANDSAT technical goals and assumed that information would be made available to the United States and other countries at the same time. The benefits to the United States of such public LANDSAT information on wheat crops were found to be 174 million dollars a year on the average. The benefits from improved wheat crop information compare favorably with the annual system's cost of about $62 million. A detailed empirical sample demonstration of the effect of improved information was developed. The history of wheat commodity prices for 1971-72 was reconstructed and the price changes from improved vs. historical information were compared.

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