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NASA NTRS1999

Observations of "Hystereris" in Backscattered Ultraviolet Ozone Data

The backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) technique has been used for almost 3 decades to monitor global total ozone and the distribution of ozone in the stratosphere. Satellite BUV measurements in the 250-340 mn wavelength region are technically challenging because the Earth's radiance varies by approximately 4 orders of magnitude during a single scan. Further, the observed signal increases by over three orders of magnitude in about 2 minutes as the satellite emerges into daylight. The gain of the instrument's photomultiplier tube (PMT) detector is low when the spacecraft first emerges into the sunlit portion of the orbit relative to the gain observed after the PMT has experienced moderately high current levels. This "hysteresis" effect was first observed on the Nimbus-7 SBUV and TOMS instruments. The effect is difficult to characterize prelaunch because of the high signal levels and rapid variations required. We have recently observed and quantified the hysteresis effect for the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument, which collected ozone data from February 1985 to February 1998. The instrument gain is observed to be up to 3% low at high solar zenith angles [Chi = 85-90 degrees] in the emergent hemisphere (i.e. Southern Hemisphere at launch). The gain error decreases as the SZA decreases and average PMT current increases, and is generally negligible for Chi < 65 degrees. The magnitude of the hysteresis effect varies with season, and exhibits long-term changes as the NOAA-9 sun-synchronous orbit drifts. In the latter portion of the record, when the spacecraft emerged from the dark in the Northern Hemisphere, hysteresis effects were then observed in the North. NOAA-9 total ozone errors due to the hysteresis effect are typically on the order of 2%, but can reach 5% in extreme cases. We have developed a quantitative correction for the hysteresis effect that incorporates both seasonal and long-term variations in magnitude. Results of similar analyses for the NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 SBUV/2 instruments will also be discussed. The characterization of the hysteresis effect in high solar zenith angle SBUV/2 ozone data represents a significant step towards reconciling polar ozone measurements from different satellite instruments.

DeLand, Matthew T.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approx. = 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approx. = 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves in Universal time (UT) could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels.

Mackerras, D.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Frozen-Flux Modelling for Epochs 1915 and 1980

The frozen-flux hypothesis for the Earth's liquid core assumes that convective terms dominate diffusive terms in the induction equation governing the behaviour of the magnetic field at the surface of the core. While highly plausible on the basis of estimates of physical parameters, the hypothesis has been questioned. To study this hypothesis, we improve the method which tests the consistency of magnetic observations with the hypothesis by constructing simple, flux-conserving core-field models fitting the data at pairs of epochs. We introduce a new approach that fixes the patch configurations at each of the two epochs before inversion, so that each configuration is consistent with its respective data set but possesses the same patch topology. We expand upon the inversion algorithm, using quadratic programming to maintain the proper flux sign within patches; the modelling calculations are also extended to include data types that depend non-linearly on the model. Every test of a hypothesis depends on the characterization of the observational uncertainties; we undertake a thorough review of this question. For main-field models, the primary source of uncertainty comes from the crustal field. We base our analysis on statistical models of the crustal magnetization, adjusted to bring it into better conformity with our data set. The noise model permits us to take into account the correlations between the measurements and requires that a different weighting be given to horizontal and vertical components. It also indicates that the observations should be fit more closely than has been the practice heretofore. We apply the revised method to Magsat data from 1980 and survey and observatory data from 1915.5, two data sets believed to be particularly difficult to reconcile with the frozen-flux hypothesis. We compute a pair of simple, flux-conserving models that fit the averaged data from each epoch. We therefore conclude that present knowledge of the geomagnetic fields of 1980 and 1915.5 is consistent with the frozen-flux hypothesis.

OBrien, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Diagnostic Clast-Texture Criteria for Recognition of Impact Deposits

It is difficult to find definitive evidence for impact in the geological record because there are many endogenous geological processes that can produce diamictites similar to those generated by impact ejecta. The classic impact criteria of shock fabrics in certain minerals, and iridium layers, for example, may be either difficult to find, or long-since erased from the impact site (shock fabrics also anneal with time). It is important to be able to recognize impact-generated materials in order to understand earth's crustal development and biological evolution. In future exploration of Mars and other solar-system bodies, recognition of impact materials will be important for elucidating planetary evolution, planetary volatile inventories, and exobiological issues. The cobble depicted is typical of many that have been found in diamictite deposits in Belize generated by the Chicxulub K-T impact event. The pebbles are roughly-hewn in general shape with smoothed corners and edges. Surfaces are almost uniformly frosted (on both protuberances and hollows), but some asperities are glazed. Optical microscopy and thin-section petrographic microscopy reveal the frosting to be only a few microns thick, with a well-defined granular structure; grains are the same size as those composing the bulk of the limestone, but their clearer appearance may represent annealing. One or two adjacent pebble faces are often decorated with striated gouges and closely-spaced hemispherical depressions representing indentation hollows produced by well-rounded impacting clasts of up to 0.5 cm in diameter. Some of the impactors are still embedded in the cobble surface. Non-destructive x-ray diffraction techniques showed the impactors to be of the same mineralogy as the target cobble. We believe this unusual glazing and frosting to be related to the impact event, but this must be reconciled with its survival for over 60 my. since it is composed of one of the most alterable substances, CaCO3. We focus, however, on the non-fractured rounded pebbles that appear to have impacted the larger cobble as a swarm of clasts, probably encountered during ballistic flight. It cannot be defined whether the cobble swept through the pebble cloud, or the pebbles rained upon a slowermoving cobble. Two interesting questions arise: (1) Where did large numbers of such well rounded pebbles come from in the ejecta curtain?, and (2) How did they embed themselves in a nominally brittle rock without suffering damage? Are the well-rounded pebbles crystalline (devitrified) melt spherules? Further investigations are in progress. If the cobble was cold and brittle, impact of well-rounded pebbles would have produced Hertzian fracture patterns (a) in the virtually elastically isotropic cobble target. For penetration depths of about 0.5 of the impactor diameter, the pebbles would require a relative impact velocity sufficient to cause pebble fragmentation and crushing, and the development of a complex Hertzian-Boussinesq fracture field (b) involving deep fracturing and lateral surface spalling (impact velocities > 50 m/s). The existing relationship could only evolve by the impact of cold, hard pebbles into a soft, plastic cobble surface (c). For limestone to have been plastic, it must have been at elevated temperature, but to prevent calcification of the material, the ambient pressure must also have been elevated. This would be possible either in the impact's gas plume, or within the confines of a thin aerodynamically-produced shock bow generated by supersonic ballistic motion of the cobble. In the latter case, it is implied that the cobble swept through the pebbles rather than vice-versa. Although there are high T-P conditions associated with volcanism, such textures have not been reported on volcaniclastic materials, nor from other high T-P environments; e.g., metamorphic (as far as the authors are aware). We propose that this very easily recognizable embedding and indentation surface texture can be used as a diagnostic criterion for the recognition of impact ejecta. The term "peening texture" is suggested, because it is absolutely analogous to the plastic-deformation induced, metal-surface textures generated by ball-bearing bombardment used in engineering metallurgy to work-harden metal surfaces. Additional information is contained in the original (Figures).

Marshall, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model: Overview - Part 1

Knowledge of the amount of water in the soil is of great importance to many earth science disciplines. Soil moisture is a key variable in controlling the exchange of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Thus, soil moisture information is valuable in a wide range of applications including weather and climate, runoff potential and flood control, early warning of droughts, irrigation, crop yield forecasting, soil erosion, reservoir management, geotechnical engineering, and water quality. Despite the importance of soil moisture information, widespread and continuous measurements of soil moisture are not possible today. Although many earth surface conditions can be measured from satellites, we still cannot adequately measure soil moisture from space. Research in soil moisture remote sensing began in the mid 1970s shortly after the surge in satellite development. Recent advances in remote sensing have shown that soil moisture can be measured, at least qualitatively, by several methods. Quantitative measurements of moisture in the soil surface layer have been most successful using both passive and active microwave remote sensing, although complications arise from surface roughness and vegetation type and density. Early attempts to measure soil moisture from space-borne microwave instruments were hindered by what is now considered sub-optimal wavelengths (shorter than 5 cm) and the coarse spatial resolution of the measurements. L-band frequencies between 1 and 3 GHz (10-30 cm) have been deemed optimal for detection of soil moisture in the upper few centimeters of soil. The Electronically Steered Thinned Array Radiometer (ESTAR), an aircraft-based instrument operating a 1,4 GHz, has shown great promise for soil moisture determination. Initiatives are underway to develop a similar instrument for space. Existing space-borne synthetic aperture radars (SARS) operating at C- and L-band have also shown some potential to detect surface wetness. The advantage of radar is its much higher resolution than passive microwave systems, but it is currently hampered by surface roughness effects and the lack of a good algorithm based on a single frequency and single polarization. In addition, its repeat frequency is generally low (about 40 days). In the meantime, two new radiometers offer some hope for remote sensing of soil moisture from space. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), launched in November 1997, possesses a 10.65 GHz channel and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on both the ADEOS-11 and Earth Observing System AM-1 platforms to be launched in 1999 possesses a 6.9 GHz channel. Aside from issues about interference from vegetation, the coarse resolution of these data will provide considerable challenges pertaining to their application. The resolution of TMI is about 45 km and that of AMSR is about 70 km. These resolutions are grossly inconsistent with the scale of soil moisture processes and the spatial variability of factors that control soil moisture. Scale disparities such as these are forcing us to rethink how we assimilate data of various scales in hydrologic models. Of particular interest is how to assimilate soil moisture data by reconciling the scale disparity between what we can expect from present and future remote sensing measurements of soil moisture and modeling soil moisture processes. It is because of this disparity between the resolution of space-based sensors and the scale of data needed for capturing the spatial variability of soil moisture and related properties that remote sensing of soil moisture has not met with more widespread success. Within a single footprint of current sensors at the wavelengths optimal for this application, in most cases there is enormous heterogeneity in soil moisture created by differences in landcover, soils and topography, as well as variability in antecedent precipitation. It is difficult to interpret the meaning of 'mean' soil moisture under such conditions and even more difficult to apply such a value. Because of the non-linear relationships between near-surface soil moisture and other variables of interest, such as surface energy fluxes and runoff, mean soil moisture has little applicability at such large scales. It is for these reasons that the use of remote sensing in conjunction with a hydrologic model appears to be of benefit in capturing the complete spatial and temporal structure of soil moisture. This paper is Part I of a four-part series describing a method for intermittently assimilating remotely-sensed soil moisture information to improve performance of a distributed land surface hydrology model. The method, summarized in section II, involves the following components, each of which is detailed in the indicated section of the paper or subsequent papers in this series: Forward radiative transfer model methods (section II and Part IV); Use of a Kalman filter to assimilate remotely-sensed soil moisture estimates with the model profile (section II and Part IV); Application of a soil hydrology model to capture the continuous evolution of the soil moisture profile within and below the root zone (section III); Statistical aggregation techniques (section IV and Part II); Disaggregation techniques using a neural network approach (section IV and Part III); and Maximum likelihood and Bayesian algorithms for inversely solving for the soil moisture profile in the upper few cm (Part IV).

Crosson, William L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Fresh Look at Coupled-Oscillator Spatial Power Combining

Quasi-optical oscillators were proposed a little more than ten years ago as a means of developing the power levels needed for applications at millimeter frequencies using large numbers of individual semiconductor devices each of which produces only a modest amount of power [J.W. Mink, IEEE Trans. MTT., vol. 34, p. 273, 19861. An operating system was demonstrated soon after [Z.B. Popovic et. al, Int. J. Infrared and Millimeter Waves, v. 9, p. 647, 1988] in the form of a so-called grid oscillator. This device constituted a rectangular array of oscillating devices that are mutually coupled so that they oscillator coherently. The interconnecting lines in one direction serve as radiators so that the oscillators radiate directly, and the radiated fields add. Subsequently, coupled oscillators using resonant transmission line lengths was demonstrated by Mortazawi and Itoh [IEEE Trans. MTT., vol. 38, p. 86,1990). In recent work, coupled-oscillator power combiners have received less attention, with amplifier/combiners receiving more attention. Specific weaknesses of spatial-combining oscillators have motivated this transition. Namely, the oscillators employ low-Q resonators (resulting in low signal quality) and no clear means of modulation has been identified until recently. In this presentation, we review coupled-oscillator combiners in broad terms, indicating the features that make particular systems viable. We indicate how these features can be reconciled to functional requirements for system applications. Comparisons are drawn between two approaches to obtain mutual coupling: One employs low-Q oscillator circuits at each site, with concomitantly high propensity for the oscillators to couple. The other approach employs moderate-Q oscillators at each site with the concomitant requirement to tune the oscillators so that they share a range of frequencies over which they can couple and lock. In either case, precise frequency control and modulation can be achieved through locking to an external frequency source that ensures high quality signals. A recent development in coupled-oscillator arrays provides a means for beam-steering the radiation field of coupled oscillators through de-tuning of the edge elements in the array. This detuning introduces a progressive phase shift across the oscillator array. This 0 suggests architectures that can replace the functionality of a phased array without the cost 0 incurred by phase shifters. A comprehensive theory of the phase interactions among devices in such arrays is under development [e.g., Pogorzelski, York, and Maccarini, 1998 AP-S International Symposium, Atlanta, GA. June, 19981.

Pearson, L.W.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Reducing The Station-to Station Variability of Umkehr Ozone Trends Using SAGE Measurements

This proposed research sought to use SAGE I and II ozone and aerosol measurements to reduce the variability in ozone trends, principally, but not exclusively, in layer 8 (40 km) derived from multiple Umkehr stations. Building on our experience with both SAGE and Umkehr data, we proposed to commence at the very beginning of the Umkehr process (measured radiance ratios) and proceed through the fitting and inversion processes in conjunction with radiative transfer calculations to establish a consistent, reliable time series of Umkehr ozone profiles at a number of stations. We expected to be able to reconcile the present discrepancies between SAGE and Umkehr trends in the upper stratosphere and, in particular, to reduce the variability in trend estimates among mid-latitude Umkehr stations.

Newchurch, Mike↗

NASA NTRS2000

Contribution of Changing Sources and Sinks to the Growth Rate of Atmospheric Methane Concentrations for the Last Two Decades

Matthews, Elaine↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Balanced Model for Exploration of the Terrestrial Planets: Lessons from the Lunar Experience

The Moon is the only extraterrestrial rocky body for which we have a combination of surface-selected samples, high-resolution orbital photography (Lunar Orbiter), manned and robotic surface exploration (Surveyor, Apollo, Luna), and global compositional, mineralogical, and geophysical data (Galileo, Clementine, Lunar Prospector). Beginning in 1998, CAPTEM organized a series of workshops and conference sessions aimed at integrating these diverse data sets. The insights gained by bringing together scientists from the remote-sensing and sample-analysis communities have been singularly rewarding. Not least of these has been the recognition by both groups that having both kinds of data maximizes the scientific return and permits reconciling information from diverse scales and perspectives. The 20-20 hindsight of the Lunar experience thus provides important lessons; learning from mistakes as well as successes, we can derive a sensible scientific program for Mars exploration. In this abstract, we describe examples of key information from (a) in-situ geologic investigation, (b) laboratory analysis of returned samples whose geologic context and location are known, and (c) global remote sensing of mineralogy, composition, and geophysical parameters. We then show the value of integrating these diverse data sets.

Jolliff, B. L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Modeling the Variability of the BL Lacertae Object PKS 2155-304

The bright X-ray-selected BL Lacertae object PKS 2155-304 has been the target of two intense multi-wavelength campaigns in 1991 November and in 1994 May. Although the spectral energy distributions at both epochs were quite similar, the source exhibited two very distinct variability patterns that cannot be easily reconciled with homogeneous one-zone C7 jet models. During the first epoch the variability was almost achromatic in amplitude, with a time lag between X-rays and ultraviolet radiation (UV) of approximately three hours, while during the second epoch the variability amplitude increased as a function of wavelength with the EUV flare peaking approximately one day after the X-ray flare. We model the source using a time-dependent inhomogeneous accelerating jet model. We reproduce the general characteristics of the different variability signatures by assuming that plasma disturbances with different physical properties propagate downstream in an underlying jet characterized by the same set of physical parameters at both epochs. A time delay of approximately one day between the hardening of the UV spectral index and the UV flux present at both epochs is modeled with stochastic fluctuations in the particle acceleration manifested through small variations of the maximum energy of the injected electrons. We predict that similar time delays will be present in future observations even in the absence of strong variability event. We stress the importance of observations at neighboring frequencies as a diagnostic tool for the structure of the quiescent jet in blazars especially in the seemingly dull case in which strong variability is absent.

Georganopuolos, Markos↗

NASA NTRS2000

Computer Simulations of Small Molecules in Membranes: Insights from Computer Simulations into the Interactions of Small Molecules with Lipid Bilayers

Two of Ernest Overton's lasting contributions to biology are the Meyer-Overton relationship between the potency of an anesthetic and its solubility in oil, and the Overton rule which relates the permeability of a membrane to the oil-water partition coefficient of the permeating molecule. A growing body of experimental evidence, however, cannot be reconciled with these theories. In particular, the molecular nature of membranes, unknown to Overton, needs to be included in any description of these phenomena. Computer simulations are ideally suited for providing atomic-level information about the behavior of small molecules in membranes. The authors discuss simulation studies relevant to Overton's ideas. Through simulations it was found that anesthetics tend to concentrate at interfaces and their anesthetic potency correlates better with solubility at the water-membrane interface than with solubility in oil. Simulation studies of membrane permeation revealed the anisotropic nature of the membranes, as evidenced, for example, by the highly nonuniform distribution of free volume in the bilayer. This, in turn, influences the diffusion rates of solutes, which increase with the depth in the membrane. Small solutes tend to move by hopping between voids in the bilayer, and this hopping motion may be responsible for the deviation from the Overton rule of the permeation rates of these molecules.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2001

Contribution of Changing Sources and Sinks to the Growth Rate of Atmospheric Methane Concentrations for the Last Two Decades

In situ measurements of atmospheric methane concentrations begun in the early 1980s show decadal trends, as well as large interannual variations, in growth rate. Recent research indicates that while wetlands can explain several of the large growth anomalies for individual years, the decadal trend may be the combined effect of increasing sinks, due to increases in tropospheric OH, and stabilizing sources. We discuss new 20-year histories of annual, global source strengths for all major methane sources, i.e., natural wetlands, rice cultivation, ruminant animals, landfills, fossil fuels, and biomass burning. We also present estimates of the temporal pattern of the sink required to reconcile these sources and atmospheric concentrations over this time period. Analysis of the individual emission sources, together with model-derived estimates of the OH sink strength, indicates that the growth rate of atmospheric methane observed over the last 20 years can only be explained by a combination of changes in source emissions and an increasing tropospheric sink. Direct validation of the global sources and the terrestrial sink is not straightforward, in part because some sources/sinks are relatively small and diffuse (e.g., landfills and soil consumption), as well as because the atmospheric record integrates multiple and substantial sources and tropospheric sinks in regions such as the tropics. We discuss ways to develop and test criteria for rejecting and/or accepting a suite of scenarios for the methane budget.

Matthews, Elaine↗

NASA NTRS2001

Uncertainty Optimization Applied to the Monte Carlo Analysis of Planetary Entry Trajectories

Recently, strong evidence of liquid water under the surface of Mars and a meteorite that might contain ancient microbes have renewed interest in Mars exploration. With this renewed interest, NASA plans to send spacecraft to Mars approx. every 26 months. These future spacecraft will return higher-resolution images, make precision landings, engage in longer-ranging surface maneuvers, and even return Martian soil and rock samples to Earth. Future robotic missions and any human missions to Mars will require precise entries to ensure safe landings near science objective and pre-employed assets. Potential sources of water and other interesting geographic features are often located near hazards, such as within craters or along canyon walls. In order for more accurate landings to be made, spacecraft entering the Martian atmosphere need to use lift to actively control the entry. This active guidance results in much smaller landing footprints. Planning for these missions will depend heavily on Monte Carlo analysis. Monte Carlo trajectory simulations have been used with a high degree of success in recent planetary exploration missions. These analyses ascertain the impact of off-nominal conditions during a flight and account for uncertainty. Uncertainties generally stem from limitations in manufacturing tolerances, measurement capabilities, analysis accuracies, and environmental unknowns. Thousands of off-nominal trajectories are simulated by randomly dispersing uncertainty variables and collecting statistics on forecast variables. The dependability of Monte Carlo forecasts, however, is limited by the accuracy and completeness of the assumed uncertainties. This is because Monte Carlo analysis is a forward driven problem; beginning with the input uncertainties and proceeding to the forecasts outputs. It lacks a mechanism to affect or alter the uncertainties based on the forecast results. If the results are unacceptable, the current practice is to use an iterative, trial-and-error approach to reconcile discrepancies. Therefore, an improvement to the Monte Carlo analysis is needed that will allow the problem to be worked in reverse. In this way, the largest allowable dispersions that achieve the required mission objectives can be determined quantitatively.

Olds, John↗

NASA NTRS1994

Analysis of Crew Fatigue in AIA Guantanamo Bay Aviation Accident

Flight operations can engender fatigue, which can affect flight crew performance, vigilance, and mood. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) requested the NASA Fatigue Countermeasures Program to analyze crew fatigue factors in an aviation accident that occurred at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. There are specific fatigue factors that can be considered in such investigations: cumulative sleep loss, continuous hours of wakefulness prior to the incident or accident, and the time of day at which the accident occurred. Data from the NTSB Human Performance Investigator's Factual Report, the Operations Group Chairman's Factual Report, and the Flight 808 Crew Statements were analyzed, using conservative estimates and averages to reconcile discrepancies among the sources. Analysis of these data determined the following: the entire crew displayed cumulative sleep loss, operated during an extended period of continuous wakefulness, and obtained sleep at times in opposition to the circadian disposition for sleep, and that the accident occurred in the afternoon window of physiological sleepiness. In addition to these findings, evidence that fatigue affected performance was suggested by the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) transcript as well as in the captain's testimony. Examples from the CVR showed degraded decision-making skills, fixation, and slowed responses, all of which can be affected by fatigue; also, the captain testified to feeling "lethargic and indifferent" just prior to the accident. Therefore, the sleep/wake history data supports the hypothesis that fatigue was a factor that affected crewmembers' performance. Furthermore, the examples from the CVR and the captain's testimony support the hypothesis that the fatigue had an impact on specific actions involved in the occurrence of the accident.

Rosekind, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Dry Mars: Parched Rocks and Fallen Dust

While "following the water" to find life on Mars, it is easy to overlook evidence that Mars is harshly dry, and to neglect ideas that do not invoke water. Direct evidence for a dry Mars comes from the ALH 84001 meteorite, which has seen little or no liquid water during its last 3.9 billion years on Mars. Its aridity is difficult to reconcile with a Mars of abundant near-surface surface water or with episodes of warm wet climate. Alternative scenarios are also possible, even likely, for the martian gullies and debris flows that have been cited as evidence of liquid water. It is reasonable that the gullies flows are the remnants of massive dust avalanches, comparable to large climax snow avalanches seen on Earth. Mars' surface is now desiccated, and at least part of it has been equally desiccated for the past 3.9 billion years. With this background, and the wealth of atmospheric, imaging, and chemical data available from Mars, one must be very cautious in evaluating claims for liquid water recently at or near Mars' surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Treiman, Allan H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Models of Human Information Requirements: "When Reasonable Aiding Systems Disagree"

Aircraft flight management and Air Traffic Control (ATC) automation are under development to maximize the economy of flight and to increase the capacity of the terminal area airspace while maintaining levels of flight safety equal to or better than current system performance. These goals are being realized by the introduction of flight management automation aiding and operations support systems on the flight deck and by new developments of ATC aiding systems that seek to optimize scheduling of aircraft while potentially reducing required separation and accounting for weather and wake vortex turbulence. Aiding systems on both the flight deck and the ground operate through algorithmic functions on models of the aircraft and of the airspace. These models may differ from each other as a result of variations in their models of the immediate environment. The resultant flight operations or ATC commands may differ in their response requirements (e.g. different preferred descent speeds or descent initiation points). The human operators in the system must then interact with the automation to reconcile differences and resolve conflicts. We have developed a model of human performance including cognitive functions (decision-making, rule-based reasoning, procedural interruption recovery and forgetting) that supports analysis of the information requirements for resolution of flight aiding and ATC conflicts. The model represents multiple individuals in the flight crew and in ATC. The model is supported in simulation on a Silicon Graphics' workstation using Allegro Lisp. Design guidelines for aviation automation aiding systems have been developed using the model's specification of information and team procedural requirements. Empirical data on flight deck operations from full-mission flight simulation are provided to support the model's predictions. The paper describes the model, its development and implementation, the simulation test of the model predictions, and the empirical validation process. The model and its supporting data provide a generalizable tool that is being expanded to include air/ground compatibility and ATC crew interactions in air traffic management.

Corker, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1997

Pilot Non-Conformance to Alerting System Commands During Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches

Cockpit alerting systems monitor potentially hazardous situations, both inside and outside the aircraft. When a hazard is projected to occur, the alerting system displays alerts and/or command decisions to the pilot. However, pilots have been observed to not conform to alerting system commands by delaying their response or by not following the automatic commands exactly. This non-conformance to the automatic alerting system can reduce its benefit. Therefore, a need exists to understand the causes and effects of pilot non-conformance in order to develop automatic alerting systems whose commands the pilots are more likely to follow. These considerations were examined through flight simulator evaluations of the collision avoidance task during closely spaced parallel approaches. This task provided a useful case-study because the effects of non-conformance can be significant, given the time-critical nature of the task. A preliminary evaluation of alerting systems identified non-conformance in over 40% of the cases and a corresponding drop in collision avoidance performance. A follow-on experiment found subjects' alerting and maneuver selection criteria were consistent with different strategies than those used by automatic systems, indicating the pilot may potentially disagree with the alerting system if the pilot attempts to verify automatic alerts and commanded avoidance maneuvers. A final experiment found supporting automatic alerts with the explicit display of its underlying criteria resulted in more consistent subject reactions. In light of these experimental results, a general discussion of pilot non-conformance is provided. Contributing factors in pilot non-conformance include a lack of confidence in the automatic system and mismatches between the alerting system's commands and the pilots' own decisions based on the information available to them. The effects of non-conformance on system performance are discussed. Possible methods of reconciling mismatches are given, and design considerations for alerting systems which alleviate the problem of non-conformance are provided.

Pritchett, Amy Ruth↗

NASA NTRS2001

Stochastic Growth of Ion Cyclotron And Mirror Waves In Earth's Magnetosheath

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron and mirror waves in Earth's magnetosheath are bursty, have widely variable fields, and are unexpectedly persistent, properties difficult to reconcile with uniform secular growth. Here it is shown for specific periods that stochastic growth theory (SGT) quantitatively accounts for the functional form of the wave statistics and qualitatively explains the wave properties. The wave statistics are inconsistent with uniform secular growth or self-organized criticality, but nonlinear processes sometimes play a role at high fields. The results show SGT's relevance near marginal stability and suggest that it is widely relevant to space and astrophysical plasmas.

Cairns, Iver H.↗