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Interrelation Between Safety Factors and Reliability

An evaluation was performed to establish relationships between safety factors and reliability relationships. Results obtained show that the use of the safety factor is not contradictory to the employment of the probabilistic methods. In many cases the safety factors can be directly expressed by the required reliability levels. However, there is a major difference that must be emphasized: whereas the safety factors are allocated in an ad hoc manner, the probabilistic approach offers a unified mathematical framework. The establishment of the interrelation between the concepts opens an avenue to specify safety factors based on reliability. In cases where there are several forms of failure, then the allocation of safety factors should he based on having the same reliability associated with each failure mode. This immediately suggests that by the probabilistic methods the existing over-design or under-design can be eliminated. The report includes three parts: Part 1-Random Actual Stress and Deterministic Yield Stress; Part 2-Deterministic Actual Stress and Random Yield Stress; Part 3-Both Actual Stress and Yield Stress Are Random.

Elishakoff, Isaac↗

MDP: Reliable File Transfer for Space Missions

This paper presents work being done at NASA/GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) by the Operating Missions as Nodes on the Internet (OMNI) project to demonstrate the application of the Multicast Dissemination Protocol (MDP) to space missions to reliably transfer files. This work builds on previous work by the OMNI project to apply Internet communication technologies to space communication. The goal of this effort is to provide an inexpensive, reliable, standard, and interoperable mechanism for transferring files in the space communication environment. Limited bandwidth, noise, delay, intermittent connectivity, link asymmetry, and one-way links are all possible issues for space missions. Although these are link-layer issues, they can have a profound effect on the performance of transport and application level protocols. MDP, a UDP (User Datagram Protocol)-based reliable file transfer protocol, was designed for multicast environments which have to address these same issues, and it has done so successfully. Developed by the Naval Research Lab in the mid 1990s, MDP is now in daily use by both the US Post Office and the DoD (Department of Defense). This paper describes the use of MDP to provide automated end-to-end data flow for space missions. It examines the results of a parametric study of MDP in a simulated space link environment and discusses the results in terms of their implications for space missions. Lessons learned are addressed, which suggest minor enhancements to the MDP user interface to add specific features for space mission requirements, such as dynamic control of data rate, and a checkpoint/resume capability. These are features that are provided for in the protocol, but are not implemented in the sample MDP application that was provided. A brief look is also taken at the status of standardization. A version of MDP known as NORM (Nack Oriented Reliable Multicast) is in the process of becoming an IETF (Internet Engineering Task Force) standard.

Rash, James↗

MDP: Reliable File Transfer for Space Missions

This paper presents work being done at NASA/GSFC by the Operating Missions as Nodes on the Internet (OMNI) project to demonstrate the application of the Multicast Dissemination Protocol (MDP) to space missions to reliably transfer files. This work builds on previous work by the OMNI project to apply Internet communication technologies to space communication. The goal of this effort is to provide an inexpensive, reliable, standard, and interoperable mechanism for transferring files in the space communication environment. Limited bandwidth, noise, delay, intermittent connectivity, link asymmetry, and one-way links are all possible issues for space missions. Although these are link-layer issues, they can have a profound effect on the performance of transport and application level protocols. MDP, a UDP-based reliable file transfer protocol, was designed for multicast environments which have to address these same issues, and it has done so successfully. Developed by the Naval Research Lab in the mid 1990's, MDP is now in daily use by both the US Post Office and the DoD. This paper describes the use of MDP to provide automated end-to-end data flow for space missions. It examines the results of a parametric study of MDP in a simulated space link environment and discusses the results in terms of their implications for space missions. Lessons learned are addressed, which suggest minor enhancements to the MDP user interface to add specific features for space mission requirements, such as dynamic control of data rate, and a checkpoint/resume capability. These are features that are provided for in the protocol, but are not implemented in the sample MDP application that was provided. A brief look is also taken at the status of standardization. A version of MDP known as NORM (Neck Oriented Reliable Multicast) is in the process of becoming an IETF standard.

Rash, James↗

CARES/LIFE Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program

This manual describes the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction (CARES/LIFE) computer program. The program calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. CARES/LIFE is an extension of the CARES (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. The program uses results from MSC/NASTRAN, ABAQUS, and ANSYS finite element analysis programs to evaluate component reliability due to inherent surface and/or volume type flaws. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing the power law, Paris law, or Walker law. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled by using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. The probabilistic time-dependent theories used in CARES/LIFE, along with the input and output for CARES/LIFE, are described. Example problems to demonstrate various features of the program are also included.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Reliable Transport over SpaceWire for James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Focal Plane Electronics (FPE) Network

NASA's James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) faces difficult technical and budgetary challenges to overcome before it is scheduled launch in 2010. The Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM), shares these challenges. The major challenge addressed in this paper is the data network used to collect, process, compresses and store Infrared data. A total of 114 Mbps of raw information must be collected from 19 sources and delivered to the two redundant data processing units across a twenty meter deployed thermally restricted interface. Further data must be transferred to the solid-state recorder and the spacecraft. The JWST detectors are kept at cryogenic temperatures to obtain the sensitivity necessary to measure faint energy sources. The Focal Plane Electronics (FPE) that sample the detector, generate packets from the samples, and transmit these packets to the processing electronics must dissipate little power in order to help keep the detectors at these cold temperatures. Separating the low powered front-end electronics from the higher-powered processing electronics, and using a simple high-speed protocol to transmit the detector data minimize the power dissipation near the detectors. Low Voltage Differential Signaling (LVDS) drivers were considered an obvious choice for physical layer because of their high speed and low power. The mechanical restriction on the number cables across the thermal interface force the Image packets to be concentrated upon two high-speed links. These links connect the many image packet sources, Focal Plane Electronics (FPE), located near the cryogenic detectors to the processing electronics on the spacecraft structure. From 12 to 10,000 seconds of raw data are processed to make up an image, various algorithms integrate the pixel data Loss of commands to configure the detectors as well as the loss of science data itself may cause inefficiency in the use of the telescope that are unacceptable given the high cost of the observatory. This combination of requirements necessitates a redundant, fault tolerant, high- speed, low mass, low power network with a low Bit error Rate(1E-9- 1E-12). The ISIM systems team performed many studies of the various network architectures that meeting these requirements. The architecture selected uses the Spacewire protocol, with the addition of a new transport and network layer added to implement end-to-end reliable transport. The network and reliable transport mechanism must be implemented in hardware because of the high average information rate and the restriction on the ability of the detectors to buffer data due to power and size restrictions. This network and transport mechanism was designed to be compatible with existing Spacewire links and routers so that existing equipment and designs may be leveraged upon. The transport layer specification is being coordinated with European Space Agency (ESA), Spacewire Working Group and the Consultative Committee for Space Data System (CCSDS) PlK Standard Onboard Interface (SOIF) panel, with the intent of developing a standard for reliable transport for Spacewire. Changes to the protocol presented are likely since negotiations are ongoing with these groups. A block of RTL VHDL that implements a multi-port Spacewire router with an external user interface will be developed and integrated with an existing Spacewire Link design. The external user interface will be the local interface that sources and sinks packets onto and off of the network (Figure 3). The external user interface implements the network and transport layer and handles acknowledgements and re-tries of packets for reliable transport over the network. Because the design is written in RTL, it may be ported to any technology but will initially be targeted to the new Actel Accelerator series (AX) part. Each link will run at 160 Mbps and the power will be about 0.165 Watt per link worst case in the Actel AX.

Rakow, Glenn↗

Reliability Assessment of a Robust Design Under Uncertainty for a 3-D Flexible Wing

The paper presents reliability assessment results for the robust designs under uncertainty of a 3-D flexible wing previously reported by the authors. Reliability assessments (additional optimization problems) of the active constraints at the various probabilistic robust design points are obtained and compared with the constraint values or target constraint probabilities specified in the robust design. In addition, reliability-based sensitivity derivatives with respect to design variable mean values are also obtained and shown to agree with finite difference values. These derivatives allow one to perform reliability based design without having to obtain second-order sensitivity derivatives. However, an inner-loop optimization problem must be solved for each active constraint to find the most probable point on that constraint failure surface.

Gumbert, Clyde R.↗

Overview of Probabilistic Methods for SAE G-11 Meeting for Reliability and Uncertainty Quantification for DoD TACOM Initiative with SAE G-11 Division

The SAE G-11 RMSL Division and Probabilistic Methods Committee meeting during October 6-8 at the Best Western Sterling Inn, Sterling Heights (Detroit), Michigan is co-sponsored by US Army Tank-automotive & Armaments Command (TACOM). The meeting will provide an industry/government/academia forum to review RMSL technology; reliability and probabilistic technology; reliability-based design methods; software reliability; and maintainability standards. With over 100 members including members with national/international standing, the mission of the G-11's Probabilistic Methods Committee is to "enable/facilitate rapid deployment of probabilistic technology to enhance the competitiveness of our industries by better, faster, greener, smarter, affordable and reliable product development."

Singhal, Surendra N.↗

A Most Probable Point-Based Method for Reliability Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization

A major step in a most probable point (MPP)-based method for reliability analysis is to determine the MPP. This is usually accomplished by using an optimization search algorithm. The minimum distance associated with the MPP provides a measurement of safety probability, which can be obtained by approximate probability integration methods such as FORM or SORM. The reliability sensitivity equations are derived first in this paper, based on the derivatives of the optimal solution. Examples are provided later to demonstrate the use of these derivatives for better reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO).

Hou, Gene J.-W↗

Determining Functional Reliability of Pyrotechnic Mechanical Devices

This paper describes a new approach for evaluating mechanical performance and predicting the mechanical functional reliability of pyrotechnic devices. Not included are other possible failure modes, such as the initiation of the pyrotechnic energy source. The requirement of hundreds or thousands of consecutive, successful tests on identical components for reliability predictions, using the generally accepted go/no-go statistical approach routinely ignores physics of failure. The approach described in this paper begins with measuring, understanding and controlling mechanical performance variables. Then, the energy required to accomplish the function is compared to that delivered by the pyrotechnic energy source to determine mechanical functional margin. Finally, the data collected in establishing functional margin is analyzed to predict mechanical functional reliability, using small-sample statistics. A careful application of this approach can provide considerable cost improvements and understanding over that of go/no-go statistics. Performance and the effects of variables can be defined, and reliability predictions can be made by evaluating 20 or fewer units. The application of this approach to a pin puller used on a successful NASA mission is provided as an example.

Bement, Laurence J.↗

Reliability Quantification of the Flexure: A Critical Stirling Convertor Component

Uncertainties in the manufacturing, fabrication process, material behavior, loads, and boundary conditions results in the variation of the stresses and strains induced in the flexures and its fatigue life. Past experience and the test data at material coupon levels revealed a significant amount of scatter of the fatigue life. Owing to these facts, the design of the flexure, using conventional approaches based on safety factor or traditional reliability based on similar equipment considerations does not provide a direct measure of reliability. Additionally, it may not be feasible to run actual long term fatigue tests due to cost and time constraints. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain material fatigue strength limit. The objective of the paper is to present a methodology and quantified results of numerical simulation for the reliability of flexures used in the Stirling convertor for their structural performance. The proposed approach is based on application of finite element analysis method in combination with the random fatigue limit model, which includes uncertainties in material fatigue life. Additionally, sensitivity of fatigue life reliability to the design variables is quantified and its use to develop guidelines to improve design, manufacturing, quality control and inspection design process is described.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

Reliability Issues in Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems

Stirling power conversion is a potential candidate for use in a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) for space science missions because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power and reduced requirement of radioactive material. Reliability of an RPS that utilizes Stirling power conversion technology is important in order to ascertain long term successful performance. Owing to long life time requirement (14 years), it is difficult to perform long-term tests that encompass all the uncertainties involved in the design variables of components and subsystems comprising the RPS. The requirement for uninterrupted performance reliability and related issues are discussed, and some of the critical areas of concern are identified. An overview of the current on-going efforts to understand component life, design variables at the component and system levels, and related sources and nature of uncertainties are also discussed. Current status of the 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) reliability efforts is described. Additionally, an approach showing the use of past experience on other successfully used power systems to develop a reliability plan for the SRG110 design is outlined.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

Reliability Issues in Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems

Stirling power conversion is a potential candidate for use in a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) for space science missions because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power and reduced requirement of radioactive material. Reliability of an RPS that utilizes Stirling power conversion technology is important in order to ascertain long term successful performance. Owing to long life time requirement (14 years), it is difficult to perform long-term tests that encompass all the uncertainties involved in the design variables of components and subsystems comprising the RPS. The requirement for uninterrupted performance reliability and related issues are discussed, and some of the critical areas of concern are identified. An overview of the current on-going efforts to understand component life, design variables at the component and system levels, and related sources and nature of uncertainties are also discussed. Current status of the 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) reliability efforts is described. Additionally, an approach showing the use of past experience on other successfully used power systems to develop a reliability plan for the SRG110 design is outlined.

Schreiber, Jeffrey↗

Transient Reliability Analysis Capability Developed for CARES/Life

The CARES/Life software developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center provides a general-purpose design tool that predicts the probability of the failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. This award-winning software has been widely used by U.S. industry to establish the reliability and life of a brittle material (e.g., ceramic, intermetallic, and graphite) structures in a wide variety of 21st century applications.Present capabilities of the NASA CARES/Life code include probabilistic life prediction of ceramic components subjected to fast fracture, slow crack growth (stress corrosion), and cyclic fatigue failure modes. Currently, this code can compute the time-dependent reliability of ceramic structures subjected to simple time-dependent loading. For example, in slow crack growth failure conditions CARES/Life can handle sustained and linearly increasing time-dependent loads, whereas in cyclic fatigue applications various types of repetitive constant-amplitude loads can be accounted for. However, in real applications applied loads are rarely that simple but vary with time in more complex ways such as engine startup, shutdown, and dynamic and vibrational loads. In addition, when a given component is subjected to transient environmental and or thermal conditions, the material properties also vary with time. A methodology has now been developed to allow the CARES/Life computer code to perform reliability analysis of ceramic components undergoing transient thermal and mechanical loading. This means that CARES/Life will be able to analyze finite element models of ceramic components that simulate dynamic engine operating conditions. The methodology developed is generalized to account for material property variation (on strength distribution and fatigue) as a function of temperature. This allows CARES/Life to analyze components undergoing rapid temperature change in other words, components undergoing thermal shock. In addition, the capability has been developed to perform reliability analysis for components that undergo proof testing involving transient loads. This methodology was developed for environmentally assisted crack growth (crack growth as a function of time and loading), but it will be extended to account for cyclic fatigue (crack growth as a function of load cycles) as well.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Determination of Turboprop Reduction Gearbox System Fatigue Life and Reliability

Two computational models to determine the fatigue life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox are compared with each other and with field data. These models are (1) Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives of individual bearings and gears comprising the system and (2) two-parameter Weibull distribution function for bearings and gears comprising the system using strict-series system reliability to combine the calculated individual component lives in the gearbox. The Monte Carlo simulation included the virtual testing of 744,450 gearboxes. Two sets of field data were obtained from 64 gearboxes that were first-run to removal for cause, were refurbished and placed back in service, and then were second-run until removal for cause. A series of equations were empirically developed from the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical variation in predicted life and Weibull slope as a function of the number of gearboxes failed. The resultant L(sub 10) life from the field data was 5,627 hr. From strict-series system reliability, the predicted L(sub 10) life was 774 hr. From the Monte Carlo simulation, the median value for the L(sub 10) gearbox lives equaled 757 hr. Half of the gearbox L(sub 10) lives will be less than this value and the other half more. The resultant L(sub 10) life of the second-run (refurbished) gearboxes was 1,334 hr. The apparent load-life exponent p for the roller bearings is 5.2. Were the bearing lives to be recalculated with a load-life exponent p equal to 5.2, the predicted L(sub 10) life of the gearbox would be equal to the actual life obtained in the field. The component failure distribution of the gearbox from the Monte Carlo simulation was nearly identical to that using the strict-series system reliability analysis, proving the compatibility of these methods.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

Design Development Test and Evaluation (DDT and E) Considerations for Safe and Reliable Human Rated Spacecraft Systems

A team directed by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) collected methodologies for how best to develop safe and reliable human rated systems and how to identify the drivers that provide the basis for assessing safety and reliability. The team also identified techniques, methodologies, and best practices to assure that NASA can develop safe and reliable human rated systems. The results are drawn from a wide variety of resources, from experts involved with the space program since its inception to the best-practices espoused in contemporary engineering doctrine. This report focuses on safety and reliability considerations and does not duplicate or update any existing references. Neither does it intend to replace existing standards and policy.

Miller, James↗

Design Development Test and Evaluation (DDT and E) Considerations for Safe and Reliable Human Rated Spacecraft Systems

A team directed by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) collected methodologies for how best to develop safe and reliable human rated systems and how to identify the drivers that provide the basis for assessing safety and reliability. The team also identified techniques, methodologies, and best practices to assure that NASA can develop safe and reliable human rated systems. The results are drawn from a wide variety of resources, from experts involved with the space program since its inception to the best-practices espoused in contemporary engineering doctrine. This report focuses on safety and reliability considerations and does not duplicate or update any existing references. Neither does it intend to replace existing standards and policy.

Miller, James↗

Use of Raman Spectroscopy and Delta Volume Growth from Void Collapse to Assess Overwrap Stress Gradients Compromising the Reliability of Large Kevlar/Epoxy COPVs

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are frequently used for storing pressurized gases aboard spacecraft and aircraft when weight saving is desirable compared to all-metal versions. Failure mechanisms in fibrous COPVs and variability in lifetime can be very different from their metallic counterparts; in the former, catastrophic stress-rupture can occur with virtually no warning, whereas in latter, a leak before burst design philosophy can be implemented. Qualification and certification typically requires only one burst test on a production sample (possibly after several pressure cycles) and the vessel need only meet a design burst strength (the maximum operating pressure divided by a knockdown factor). Typically there is no requirement to assess variability in burst strength or lifetime, much less determine production and materials processing parameters important to control of such variability. Characterizing such variability and its source is crucial to models for calculating required reliability over a given lifetime (e.g. R = 0.9999 for 15 years). In this paper we present a case study of how lack of control of certain process parameters in COPV manufacturing can result in variations among vessels and between production runs that can greatly increase uncertainty and reduce reliability. The vessels considered are 40-inch ( NASA Glenn Research center, Cleveland, OH, 44135 29,500 in3 ) spherical COPVs with a 0.74 in. thick Kevlar49/epoxy overwrap and with a titanium liner of which 34 were originally produced. Two burst tests were eventually performed that unexpectedly differed by almost 5%, and were 10% lower than anticipated from burst tests on 26-inch sister vessels similar in every detail. A major observation from measurements made during proof testing (autofrettage) of the 40-inch vessels was that permanent volume growth from liner yielding varied by a factor of more than two (150 in3 to 360 in3 ), which suggests large differences in the residual stress gradient through their overwraps. This resulted in large uncertainty in true fiber stress ratio (fiber stress at operating pressure divided by fiber stress at burst) which governs lifetime. The vessels were originally designed with tight safety margins, so it became crucial to develop a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique to directly measure the overwrap residual stress state of each vessel, and to identify those vessels at highest risk of having poor reliability. This paper describes a Raman Spectroscopy technique for measuring certain patterns of fluctuation in fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface (where all but one wrap is exposed at certain locations) that are shown to directly correlate to increased fiber stress ratios and reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗

Compact, Reliable EEPROM Controller

A compact, reliable controller for an electrically erasable, programmable read-only memory (EEPROM) has been developed specifically for a space-flight application. The design may be adaptable to other applications in which there are requirements for reliability in general and, in particular, for prevention of inadvertent writing of data in EEPROM cells. Inadvertent writes pose risks of loss of reliability in the original space-flight application and could pose such risks in other applications. Prior EEPROM controllers are large and complex and do not provide all reasonable protections (in many cases, few or no protections) against inadvertent writes. In contrast, the present controller provides several layers of protection against inadvertent writes. The controller also incorporates a write-time monitor, enabling determination of trends in the performance of an EEPROM through all phases of testing. The controller has been designed as an integral subsystem of a system that includes not only the controller and the controlled EEPROM aboard a spacecraft but also computers in a ground control station, relatively simple onboard support circuitry, and an onboard communication subsystem that utilizes the MIL-STD-1553B protocol. (MIL-STD-1553B is a military standard that encompasses a method of communication and electrical-interface requirements for digital electronic subsystems connected to a data bus. MIL-STD- 1553B is commonly used in defense and space applications.) The intent was to both maximize reliability while minimizing the size and complexity of onboard circuitry. In operation, control of the EEPROM is effected via the ground computers, the MIL-STD-1553B communication subsystem, and the onboard support circuitry, all of which, in combination, provide the multiple layers of protection against inadvertent writes. There is no controller software, unlike in many prior EEPROM controllers; software can be a major contributor to unreliability, particularly in fault situations such as the loss of power or brownouts. Protection is also provided by a powermonitoring circuit.

Katz, Richard↗