Results for “risk prevention” — Page 20

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Grid Redistribution for a 1D Model of Turbulence and Clouds

In global atmospheric models, resolving stratocumulus (Sc) in the vertical is computationally expensive. However, Sc appear only under special meteorological conditions. Therefore, there is motivation to refine the vertical grid levels adaptively. In order to facilitate the possibility of parallelization on graphical processing units, our grid adaptation method prescribes the number of vertical levels a priori. Then grid levels are relocated toward altitude ranges in need of refinement. Because the method relocates existing grid levels, rather than adding extra levels, there is a risk of creating regions with overly coarse grid spacing, that is, voids in the grid mesh. To prevent such voids from forming, a simple method is developed to impose a maximum grid spacing. To decide where to place enhanced resolution, the authors develop an empirical mesh refinement criterion. It refines grid spacing near the ground, near strong temperature gradients, and within clouds. Our grid adaptation method is implemented in a single-column model and evaluated on four test cases: decaying stratocumulus, developing shallow cumulus, a quasi-stationary stratocumulus deck, and the diurnal cycle of a dry boundary layer. In the stratocumulus cases, mesh refinement leads to improvements in both the time evolution of fields and their time averages. The other two cases show smaller differences.

Carstensen, Steffen [Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mapping brucellosis risk in Kenya and its implications for control strategies in sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), effective brucellosis control is limited, in part, by the lack of long-term commitments by governments to control the disease and the absence of reliable national human and livestock population-based data to inform policies. Therefore, we conducted a study to establish the national prevalence and develop a risk map for Brucella spp. in cattle to contribute to plans to eliminate the disease in Kenya by the year 2040. We randomly generated 268 geolocations and distributed them across Kenya, proportionate to the area of each of the five agroecological zones and the associated cattle population. Cattle herds closest to each selected geolocation were identified for sampling. Up to 25 cattle were sampled per geolocation and a semi-structured questionnaire was administered to their owners. We tested 6,593 cattle samples for Brucella immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using an Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We assessed potential risk factors and performed spatial analyses and prevalence mapping using approximate Bayesian inference implemented via the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The national Brucella spp. prevalence was 6.8% (95% CI: 6.2–7.4%). Exposure levels varied significantly between agro-ecological zones, with a high of 8.5% in the very arid zone with the lowest agricultural potential relative to a low of 0.0% in the agro-alpine zone with the highest agricultural potential. Additionally, seroprevalence increased with herd size, and the odds of seropositivity were significantly higher for females and adult animals than for males or calves. Similarly, animals with a history of abortion, or with multiple reproductive syndromes had higher seropositivity than those without. At the herd level, the risk of Brucella spp. transmission was higher in larger herds, and herds with a history of reproductive problems such as abortion, giving birth to weak calves, or having swollen testes. Geographic localities with high Brucella seroprevalence occurred in northern, eastern, and southern regions of Kenya all primarily characterized by semi-arid or arid agro-ecological zones dominated by livestock pastoralism interspersed with vast areas with mixed livestock-wildlife systems. The large spatial extent of our survey provides compelling evidence for the widespread geographical distribution of brucellosis risk across Kenya in a manner easily understandable for policymakers. Our findings can provide a basis for risk-stratified pilot studies aiming to investigate the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of singular and combined preventive intervention strategies that seek to inform Kenya’s Brucellosis Control Policy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ames National Laboratory Annual Site Environmental Report for CY2021

The primary purpose of this report is to summarize the performance of Ames National Laboratory’s environmental programs, present highlights of significant environmental activities, and confirm compliance with environmental regulations and requirements for calendar year 2021. This report is a working requirement of Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting. It includes descriptions of the Laboratory’s site, mission, the status of its compliance with applicable environmental regulations, its planning and activities to maintain compliance, and a comprehensive review of its environmental protection, surveillance and monitoring activities. Ames National Laboratory is located on the campus of Iowa State University (ISU) and occupies 13 buildings owned by the Department of Energy (DOE). See the Laboratory’s Web page for location and Laboratory overview. The Laboratory also leases space in ISU owned buildings. In 2021, the Laboratory accumulated and disposed of hazardous waste under a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued generator number. All waste was handled according to applicable EPA, State, and local regulations and DOE Orders. The Laboratory operates as a Small Quantity Generator (SQG) of hazardous waste. There were no radiological air emissions or exposures to the general public due to Laboratory activities in 2021 (See U.S. Department of Energy Air Emissions Annual Report in Appendix A.) The Laboratory has an established Environmental Radiological Protection Program (Plan 10200.041) per DOE Order 458.1 requirements. Plans, policies, and procedures are in place to protect the public and the environment against undue risk from radiation associated with DOE radiological activities. As indicated in prior Site Environmental Reports, formal pollution prevention awareness, waste minimization and recycling programs have been in practice since 1990, with improvements implemented most recently in 2017 with Iowa State University’s shift toward single-stream recycling. Included in recycling efforts are items such as batteries, monitors, corrugated cardboard, lamps, miscellaneous electronic office equipment, mixed paper, newsprint, food/beverage containers, and laboratory glassware. Ames National Laboratory also recycles/reuses salvageable metal, used oil, and foamed polystyrene peanuts, and encourages chemical redistribution and sharing among research groups. Ames National Laboratory reported its contractual performance to DOE-Ames Site Office (AMSO) through the Laboratory’s Performance Evaluation Measurement Plan (PEMP), and a performance level of “B+” was achieved in 2021 for Sustain Excellence and Enhance Effectiveness of Integrated Safety, Health, and Environmental Protection As reported in Site Environmental Reports for prior years, the Laboratory’s Environmental Management System (EMS) has been integrated into the Laboratory’s Integrated Safety Management System (ISMS) since 2005. The integration of EMS into Laboratory business practices allows the Laboratory to systematically review, address and respond to environmental impacts. In addition to DOE-identified objectives and targets, the EMS Steering Committee recommends annual environmental goals for the Laboratory. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and limited onsite work staff, goals of reducing water usage and travel/commuting to promote the reduction of scope 3 greenhouse gases were achieved. All contract deliverables and environmental compliance activities were still met during this time.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regulatory Considerations for Domestic Reprocessing Facility Physical Security

U.S. advanced non-light-water reactor vendors may pursue collocated on-site reprocessing activities. Therefore, these facilities are likely to possess formula quantities, or Category I quantities, of special nuclear material (SNM) during normal operations. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC) has yet to formally establish a regulatory framework for commercial reprocessing. While Category I requirements would explicitly not apply in this circumstance under current regulatory requirements, regulatory certainty does not exist. A novel framework should be developed to ensure public health and safety while also risk-informing the physical security requirements. This report reviews the relevant background of related rulemaking activities and proposes risk-informed physical protection requirements to satisfy these objectives. Insights from NRC security-related rulemaking activities provide a substantial technical basis to approach potential establishment of physical security requirements for reprocessing facilities. If a licensee can provide justification that the material satisfies a sufficient self-protecting radiation dose threshold, the material may not be subject to theft or diversion requirements and only potential sabotage requirements would apply. Furthermore, if the material can be justified to be moderately dilute, a set of risk-informed requirements could provide adequate protection of public health and safety. A revised performance objective for prevention of theft of moderately dilute Category I SNM may be detection to allow prompt recovery by a local law enforcement agency. However, a significant caveat to the proposed categorization scheme is the unknown integration of radiological sabotage with requirements for the protection against theft. Future licensees should consult with the NRC regarding treatment of this regulatory topic. Additionally, the self-protecting radiation dose threshold (either the existing or a proposed future threshold) would need to be considered. An integrated approach may apply graded potential requirements for protection against the design basis threat of radiological sabotage currently applicable to commercial nuclear power plants and Category I SNM facilities defined within 10 CFR 73.1(a).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1997

Molecular events underlying skeletal muscle atrophy and the development of effective countermeasures

Skeletal muscle adapts to loading; atrophying when exposed to unloading on Earth or in spaceflight. Significant atrophy (decreases in muscle fiber cross-section of 11-24%) in humans has been noted after only 5 days in space. Since muscle strength is determined both by muscle cross-section and synchronization of motor unit recruitment, a loss in muscle size weakens astronauts, which would increase risks to their safety if an emergency required maximal muscle force. Numerous countermeasures have been tested to prevent atrophy. Resistant exercise together with growth hormone and IGF-I are effective countermeasures to unloading as most atrophy is prevented in animal models. The loss of muscle protein is due to an early decrease in protein synthesis rate and a later increase in protein degradation. The initial decrease in protein synthesis is a result of decreased protein translation, caused by a prolongation in the elongation rate. A decrease in HSP70 by a sight increase in ATP may be the factors prolonging elongation rate. Increases in the activities of proteolytic enzymes and in ubiquitin contribute to the increased protein degradation rate in unloaded muscle. Numerous mRNA concentrations have been shown to be altered in unloaded muscles. Decreases in mRNAs for contractile proteins usually occur after the initial fall in protein synthesis rates. Much additional research is needed to determine the mechanism by which muscle senses the absence of gravity with an adaptive atrophy. The development of effective countermeasures to unloading atrophy will require more research.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2021

Sample Return Containerization and Planetary Protection Using Brazing for Breaking the Chain of Contact to Mars

Planetary protection of Mars samples returned to Earth in a future NASA mission is a critical part of preventing uncontrolled biological materials being released from the samples. The planetary protection process requires addressing the potential risks and would involve “breaking the chain of contact (BTC)”, where any returned material reaching Earth for further analysis would have to be sealed inside a container with extremely high confidence. The sterilization process would require destroying any potential biological materials that may contaminate the external surface of the container. A novel process for containing the returned samples has been conceived and developed at JPL. The process consists of using induction heated brazing to synchronously sterilize, separate, seam and seal the container. In this case. the braze material is heated to the level of melting at temperatures higher than 500°C to assure sterilizing exposed areas since carbon bonds are broken above this temperature. The container that encloses the samples consists of double walls with interstitial space that is Earth-clean. The process consists of two-steps, where one was intended to be prepared on Earth and the second potentially executed on orbit around Mars. The latest results of this study that established the needed capability are described and discussed in this manuscript.

Shirajian, Nareg↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Grounded Theory of UAS Reported Accidents

Context: The manufacture and operation of sUAS are not as regulated as today’s commercial operation, and their widespread use introduces new risks and hazards to the general public. Aim: Our intent is to understand the various processes that prevent or portend sUAS incidents or accidents and the influence that pilots’ expectations and training have on these processes. Method: We use classic grounded theory on sUAS reported accidents (and incidents). Results: We identified three categories, Control Interference, Reviewing and Reporting, which describe various processes surrounding UAS accidents based on the dataset analyzed. Conclusion: The use of grounded theory can offer a different perspective in the analysis of UAS accidents. In addition, the traceability between data sources and the method results facilitate result validation, and navigation. While the results are preliminary, the concepts can be expanded through the use of other accident datasets or used as basis for UAS accident surveys.

Carlos Paradis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Grounded Theory of UAS Reported Accidents

Context: The manufacture and operation of sUAS are not as regulated as today’s commercial operation, and their widespread use introduces new risks and hazards to the general public. Aim: Our intent is to understand the various processes that prevent or portend sUAS incidents or accidents and the influence that pilots’ expectations and training have on these processes. Method: We use classic grounded theory on sUAS reported accidents (and incidents). Results: We identified three categories, Control Interference, Reviewing and Reporting, which describe various processes surrounding UAS accidents based on the dataset analyzed. Conclusion: The use of grounded theory can offer a different perspective in the analysis of UAS accidents. In addition, the traceability between data sources and the method results facilitate result validation, and navigation. While the results are preliminary, the concepts can be expanded through the use of other accident datasets or used as basis for UAS accident surveys.

Carlos Paradis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermal Analysis on Large Format Lithium-Ion Batteries in Thermal Runaway

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries can deliver electrical power across a large range of applications, and large format versions of these batteries are common in aerospace for their low mass and energy dense properties. Li-ion cells usage has increased as they are more power dense than fuel cells and have overall higher performance over lead-acid/NiCd batteries. However, Li-ion cells can experience Thermal Runaway (TR) via electro-chemical, mechanical, or thermal abuse. TR is a phenomenon where the stored energy in a cell is rapidly released along with vented gases and other effluents. A cell is generally determined to be in TR if its internal heat generation has surpassed its ability to dissipate that heat. If a Li-ion cell enters TR, propagation within the battery may occur. Propagation is the chain reaction that can occur to nearby cells due to a cell that has entered TR initially. Understanding a battery’s susceptiveness to propagation is necessary to evaluate risks associated with TR phenomenon. To determine if a battery is designed in a sufficient manner to prevent battery propagation if single cell TR occurs, testing and thermal analysis of the battery must be conducted. The presentation for TFAWS 2026 will cover considerations for battery TR thermal analysis, such as: testing methods, influences on the cells, failure mechanisms, and TR parameters. This presentation will include a walkthrough of an example battery TR thermal analysis, and the results thereof.

Lithium Ion Batteries↗

NASA NTRS2004

Chronic Medication and or Monitoring for Long Duration Space Flight: What Should The Policy Be?

While a private individual with a chronic medical condition could perhaps justifiably claim the right to become a "space tourist" through informed consent, NASA and other International crew members are national assets, trained at government expense to fulfill a mission considered essential to national goals. The medical requirements/policy for selection and certification of crewmembers for long duration missions to the International Space Station (ISS) should address: (1) Crewmembers with chronic conditions that require regular dosing of life-sustaining medication for the purposes of secondary or tertiary prevention (i.e. tumor suppression therapy or anticoagulation). (2) Crew members with conditions that will be worsened by spaceflight exposure, placing them at additional personal health risk though not necessarily increasing mission risk (i.e. previous radiation exposure or preflight osteopenia/osteoporosis) The following policies are recommended. A crewmember should not be assigned to an International Space Station mission who: (3) Requires medications to sustain life or who has a disease, which requires medical procedures or diagnostics to monitor and treat same. (4) Has medical condition, which would prevent participation as a candidate in many scientific and medical operational research studies, as their underlying condition would confound the collected data. (5) Requires specialized medical devices for monitoring or treatment of a medical condition, including conditions that require special provisions to conduct routine required countermeasure activities. (6) Who has a disease or requires treatment for same, and for which the effects of space travel may be deleterious to the short or long term health of the individual, An evidence-based approach will be used to provide rationale for policy recommendations under these scenarios. Operational impacts of allowing these medical conditions to fly on the ISS will also be presented.

Hamilton, Douglas R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enterprise Risks for Scientific Software in the Post Exascale Era

The Department of Energy’s Office of Science’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Office hosts three high performance computing Facilities and one high performance networking Facility. ASCR’s Facilities Division and these four Facilities established a joint working group to address the most severe threats to the software capabilities that can prevent the Facilities from supporting a diverse array of mission critical scientific research carried out by thousands of researchers from national labs, academia, and industry. This report outlines the risk categories, threat matrix calculations, and number of risks in each of the categories along with the threat levels. Two categories—programming environment/tools and system software—account for 13 out of the 20 risks encountered in the risk register. A significant risk to ASCR’s software ecosystem also arises from the possible loss of personnel and expertise past the end of the exascale computing project. The working group recommends that the software enterprise risks are reevaluated regularly, and are considered in future decision making regarding system acquisition, knowledge sharing, partnership development, and strategic planning

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of ionising radiation exposure in offspring and next generations: dosimetric aspects and uncertainties

The impact of the exposure to ionizing radiation in the offspring and next generation has been investigated in the last decades and currently is the subject of study of the ICRP Task Group 121. Studying the effects of radiation exposure in pre-conceptional and post-conceptional phases can be a challenge since potential effects to the fetus vary depending on the stage of fetal development. Epidemiology and radiobiology studies are the two sources of information one can use to correlate the radiation dose to the human body and tissues and the resulting effects. For a proper evaluation of the outcomes of such studies, and a correct appraisal of the exposure/dose-effect relationship, (i) reliable dosimetry, (ii) accurate reporting, and (iii) reproducibility of results are required. Although variables related to dose, including for instance source of radiation, geometry of irradiation, dose rate etc., are usually known, especially in radiobiology studies, often important details of the irradiation are not reported. In conclusion, based on standards developed by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), a review of the scientific studies used by the UNSCEAR to estimate the risk of hereditary effects, and by the ICRP in its current recommendations, was conducted to evaluate the way dosimetry was reported. Dosimetry and the related uncertainties were not adequately described in the vast majority of those studies. This does not necessarily mean that they do not provide relevant information, however it prevents from a thorough verification and reproduction of their findings. In order to guarantee the reliability and robustness of the process of revision of the estimates of risk and detriment it is therefore considered mandatory to include a careful check of the new relevant literature with regard to the criteria on the completeness and reproducibility of the dosimetric information.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

NASA NTRS2008

QuEST: Qualifying Environmentally Sustainable Technologies

This is an exciting new chapter for the NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Principal Center (TEERM). The Principal Center's past successes have created new opportunities for partnership and technology implementation. TEERM is continuing to support the current NASA Programs while reaching out and offering our assistance and experience to Constellation. NASA has also assumed Chairmanship responsibility of the Joint Group on Pollution Prevention (JG-PP) and Chairmanship of the JG-PP Working Group (WG). Both JG-PP and TEERM strive to improve mission readiness and reduce risk to personnel and assets by solving joint problems through cooperation. JG-PP and TEERM not only show our commitment to environmental stewardship, but also our commitment to fiscal responsibility.

Lewis, Pattie↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

J Lemery↗

NASA NTRS2024

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

Medical Operations↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Self-Sustained CPS Design for Reliable Wildfire Monitoring

Continuous monitoring of areas nearby the electric grid is critical for preventing and early detection of devastating wildfires. Existing wildfire monitoring systems are intermittent and oblivious to local ambient risk factors, resulting in poor wildfire awareness. Ambient sensor suites deployed near the gridlines can increase the monitoring granularity and detection accuracy. However, these sensors must address two challenging and competing objectives at the same time. First, they must remain powered for years without manual maintenance due to their remote locations. Second, they must provide and transmit reliable information if and when a wildfire starts. The first objective requires aggressive energy savings and ambient energy harvesting, while the second requires continuous operation of a range of sensors. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first self-sustained cyber-physical system that dynamically co-optimizes the wildfire detection accuracy and active time of sensors. The proposed approach employs reinforcement learning to train a policy that controls the sensor operations as a function of the environment (i.e., current sensor readings), harvested energy, and battery level. Here, the proposed cyber-physical system is evaluated extensively using real-life temperature, wind, and solar energy harvesting datasets and an open-source wildfire simulator. In long-term (5 years) evaluations, the proposed framework achieves 89% uptime, which is 46% higher than a carefully tuned heuristic approach. At the same time, it averages a 2-minute initial response time, which is at least 2.5× faster than the same heuristic approach. Furthermore, the policy network consumes 0.6 mJ per day on the TI CC2652R microcontroller using TensorFlow Lite for Micro, which is negligible compared to the daily sensor suite energy consumption.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

QUIC-Fire: 3D Fire-Atmosphere Feedback Model for Wildland Fire Management

Los Alamos National Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, and Tall Timbers Research Station developed QUIC-Fire, the first laptop-capable, real-time wildland fire prediction software that captures the critical influences of 3D vegetation structure, interactions between multiple fires, variable winds, and complex topography at meter-scale resolutions. Prescribed burns are needed to prevent catastrophic wildfires in the U.S. QUIC-Fire transforms a prescribed fire manager’s ability to assess risk, optimize fuel treatments, and plan prescribed burns. Los Alamos, U.S. Forest Service, Tall Timbers Research Station, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Spatial Information Group, and Applied Interagency Prescribed Training Center have used QUIC-Fire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Development and Implementation of Real-Time Information Delivery Systems for Emergency Management

The disaster management community has an on-going need for real-time data and information, especially during catastrophic events. Currently, twin engine or jet aircraft with limited altitude and duration capabilities collect much of the data. Flight safety is also an issue. Clearly, much of the needed data could be delivered via over-the-horizon transfer through a uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAV) platform to mission managers at various locations on the ground. In fact, because of the ability to stay aloft for long periods of time, and to fly above dangerous situations, UAV's are ideally suited for disaster missions. There are numerous situations that can be considered disastrous for the human population. Some, such as fire or flood, can continue over a period of days. Disaster management officials rely on data from the site to respond in an optimum way with warnings, evacuations, rescue, relief, and to the extent possible, damage control. Although different types of disasters call for different types of response, most situations can be improved by having visual images and other remotely sensed data available. "Disaster Management" is actually made up of a number of activities, including: - Disaster Prevention and Mitigation - Emergency Response Planning - Disaster Management (real-time deployment of resources, during an event) - Disaster / Risk Modeling All of these activities could benefit from real-time information, but a major focus for UAV-based technology is in real-time deployment of resources (i.e., emergency response teams), based on changing conditions at the location of the event. With all these potential benefits, it is desirable to demonstrate to user agencies the ability to perform disaster management missions as described. The following demonstration project is the first in a program designed to prove the feasibility of supporting disaster missions with UAV technology and suitable communications packages on-board. A several-year program is envisioned, in which a broad range of disaster-related activities are demonstrated to the appropriate user communities.

Wegener, Steve↗