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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Prediction

Abstract The rapid rise of deep learning (DL) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to a proliferation of models which forecast atmospheric variables with comparable or superior skill than traditional physics-based NWP. However, among these leading DL models, there is a wide variance in both the training settings and architecture used. Further, the lack of thorough ablation studies makes it hard to discern which components are most critical to success. In this work, we show that it is possible to attain high forecast skill even with relatively off-the-shelf architectures, simple training procedures, and moderate compute budgets. Specifically, we train a minimally modified Swin Transformer V2 (SwinV2) on ERA5 data and find that it attains superior skill in terms of mean-square errors of deterministic forecasts when compared against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Almost all DL–NWP systems share a core set of hyperparameters and design decisions. To aid and expedite future DL–NWP research, we present an in-depth, systematic exploration of different loss functions, model sizes and depths, patch sizes, and multistep training objectives. We also examine the model performance with metrics beyond the typical accuracy (ACC) and RMSE and investigate how the performance scales with model size. Through our open-source code, scoring pipelines, and models, we share our findings on key aspects of the training pipeline. These ablations reduce the necessity for expensive hyperparameter tuning and lower the barrier to entry for future DL–NWP research. Significance Statement This study investigates the potential of using large-scale transformer-based models for weather prediction, showing that it is possible to achieve high forecast accuracy with simpler, off-the-shelf architectures. By training a minimally modified SwinV2 transformer on ERA5 data, we show that the model achieves competitive forecast skill in terms of mean-square error for key variables, outperforming the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at all lead times. Our findings suggest that effective training strategies, such as multistep fine-tuning and channel-weighted losses, significantly enhance the model’s performance. However, we also highlight that these improvements come with trade-offs in other areas, such as ensemble spread and high-frequency spatial detail. This work highlights the promise of deep learning in improving weather forecasts, which could lead to better preparedness and response to weather events, ultimately benefiting society by providing more reliable weather predictions.

Willard, Jared D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Landscape of Distributed Graph Clustering on Leadership Supercomputers

The rapid growth of large-scale datasets in fields like biology and social networks has driven the need for advanced graph analytics techniques. Community detection, a fundamental task in graph analytics, identifies closely connected groups of nodes within a network, providing valuable insights across various disciplines. This study focuses on two classic community detection methods, the Louvain algorithm and Markov Clustering (MCL), and evaluates the performance of two prominent distributed community detection algorithms: HiPDPL-GPU, our prior implementation, and HipMCL. We conduct experiments on GPU-accelerated heterogeneous HPC systems, Summit and Frontier, to assess their performance under varying conditions. Our objective is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of these algorithms in terms of scalability, and quality of solutions. We evaluate these algorithms on a diverse set of 70+ networks spanning 13 domains, with sizes ranging up to 4.2 billion edges. Our results demonstrate that HiPDPL-GPU consistently outperforms HipMCL, especially for large-scale networks. HiPDPL-GPU achieves significantly faster runtimes (47x to 1439x), higher modularity scores, and improved scalability. These findings highlight HiPDPL-GPU as a promising solution for efficient and effective large-scale graph analytics in diverse application domains, and provide insights into the feasibility of using MCL-based approaches for certain application domains.

Community detection, graph algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automatic detection of ship-induced cloud features in satellite imagery

Ships crossing the ocean are known to produce long, curvilinear features called ship tracks visible in satellite imagery via the Twomey effect; however, there has been little exploitation of satellite imagery for broad atmospheric studies or global monitoring of ship emissions due to the difficulty of automated ship track detection. Prior studies are either proof-of-concept, qualitatively assessed, or restricted to a certain time of day. We propose a statistical method for the automated identification of ship tracks and demonstrate using GOES-West ABI data. We first present a human-assisted segmentation method, which we use to generate a ground truth data set of 529 annotated ship tracks in GOES-West ABI products. We then describe a two-stage automated approach comprising a detection stage to generate ship track proposals and a classification stage to reduce false positives. For detection, we present a novel pipeline based around a z-score filtering technique, and for classification, we demonstrate several classifiers from literature. In a final experiment, we quantitatively tune the detection parameters and train the classifier using the ground truth dataset, then test on a sequestered set of images; the detect-then-classify system had an overall Pd of 0.68 and 0.80 for daytime and nighttime data, respectively, and the classifier reduced false positive detections by 67% and 75%.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1991

Automation and robotics for the Space Exploration Initiative: Results from Project Outreach

A total of 52 submissions were received in the Automation and Robotics (A&R) area during Project Outreach. About half of the submissions (24) contained concepts that were judged to have high utility for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) and were analyzed further by the robotics panel. These 24 submissions are analyzed here. Three types of robots were proposed in the high scoring submissions: structured task robots (STRs), teleoperated robots (TORs), and surface exploration robots. Several advanced TOR control interface technologies were proposed in the submissions. Many A&R concepts or potential standards were presented or alluded to by the submitters, but few specific technologies or systems were suggested.

Gonzales, D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generative learning of densities on manifolds

A generative modeling framework is proposed that combines diffusion models and manifold learning to efficiently sample data densities on manifolds. The approach utilizes Diffusion Maps to uncover possible low-dimensional underlying (latent) spaces in the high-dimensional data (ambient) space. Two approaches for sampling from the latent data density are described. The first is a score-based diffusion model, which is trained to map a standard normal distribution to the latent data distribution using a neural network. The second one involves solving an Itô stochastic differential equation in the latent space. Additional realizations of the data are generated by lifting the samples back to the ambient space using Double Diffusion Maps , a recently introduced technique typically employed in studying dynamical system reduction; here the focus lies in sampling densities rather than system dynamics. The proposed approaches enable sampling high dimensional data densities restricted to low-dimensional, a priori unknown manifolds. The efficacy of the proposed framework is demonstrated through a benchmark problem and a material with multiscale structure.

Double diffusion maps↗
DOE OSTI2024

NANO.PTML model for read-across prediction of nanosystems in neurosciences. computational model and experimental case of study

Abstract Neurodegenerative diseases involve progressive neuronal death. Traditional treatments often struggle due to solubility, bioavailability, and crossing the Blood-Brain Barrier (BBB). Nanoparticles (NPs) in biomedical field are garnering growing attention as neurodegenerative disease drugs (NDDs) carrier to the central nervous system. Here, we introduced computational and experimental analysis. In the computational study, a specific IFPTML technique was used, which combined Information Fusion (IF) + Perturbation Theory (PT) + Machine Learning (ML) to select the most promising Nanoparticle Neuronal Disease Drug Delivery (N2D3) systems. For the application of IFPTML model in the nanoscience, NANO.PTML is used. IF-process was carried out between 4403 NDDs assays and 260 cytotoxicity NP assays conducting a dataset of 500,000 cases. The optimal IFPTML was the Decision Tree (DT) algorithm which shown satisfactory performance with specificity values of 96.4% and 96.2%, and sensitivity values of 79.3% and 75.7% in the training (375k/75%) and validation (125k/25%) set. Moreover, the DT model obtained Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) scores of 0.97 and 0.96 in the training and validation series, highlighting its effectiveness in classification tasks. In the experimental part, two samples of NPs (Fe 3 O 4 _A and Fe 3 O 4 _B) were synthesized by thermal decomposition of an iron(III) oleate (FeOl) precursor and structurally characterized by different methods. Additionally, in order to make the as-synthesized hydrophobic NPs (Fe 3 O 4 _A and Fe 3 O 4 _B) soluble in water the amphiphilic CTAB (Cetyl Trimethyl Ammonium Bromide) molecule was employed. Therefore, to conduct a study with a wider range of NP system variants, an experimental illustrative simulation experiment was performed using the IFPTML-DT model. For this, a set of 500,000 prediction dataset was created. The outcome of this experiment highlighted certain NANO.PTML systems as promising candidates for further investigation. The NANO.PTML approach holds potential to accelerate experimental investigations and offer initial insights into various NP and NDDs compounds, serving as an efficient alternative to time-consuming trial-and-error procedures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

Saile, Lynn↗
DOE OSTI2019

Formulation of Multicomponent Lattice Gas Model Cluster Expansions Parameterized on Ab Initio Data: An Introduction to the Ab Initio Mean-Field Augmented Lattice Gas Modeling Code

A formalism is presented for the construction of multicomponent lattice gas models parameterized with ab initio (typically density functional theory) data. The leave-multiple-out and the leave-one-out cross validation score are showcased, and practical algorithms are developed and implemented in a new code called the Ab initio Mean-field Augmented Lattice Gas Modeling (AMALGM) code. Here, the functionality of these algorithms is demonstrated with a fully worked out example using the O/Fe(100) system. AMALGM and the formalism on which it is based are envisioned as a surface-oriented lattice gas alternative to other cluster expansion codes that are typically geared toward bulk systems whose lateral interactions between components are parameterized using an Ising model. While the formalism is created within the context of surfaces, it is equally applicable to bulk materials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1997

Effects of Spaceflight on Drosophila Neural Development

The major goal from the animal side, however, has been achieved, namely to develop Drosophila lines where we can assay individual neuromuscular endings directly without dissection. This was achieved by means of using the GAL4-UAS system, where we have succeeded in establishing stocks of flies where the key neuromuscular connections can be assayed directly in undissected larvae by means of the expression of endogenously fluorescent reporters in the specific motor endings. The green fluorescent protein (GFP) as a reporter allows scoring of neural anatomy en-masse in whole mount using fluorescent microscopy without the need for either dissection or specific labeling. Two stocks have been developed. The first, which we developed first, uses the S65T mutant form, which has a dramatically brighter expression than the native protein. This animal will use GAL4 drivers with expression under the control of the elav gene, and which will ensure expression in all neurons of the embryo and larva. The second transgenic animal we have developed is of a novel kind, and makes use of dicistronic design, so that two copies of the protein will be expressed per insert. We have also developed a tricistronic form, but this has not yet been transformed into flies, and we do not imagine that this third line will be ready in time for the flight.

Keshishian, Haig S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Temporal Variability of Observed and Simulated Hyperspectral Earth Reflectance

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a climate observation system designed to study Earth's climate variability with unprecedented absolute radiometric accuracy and SI traceability. Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were developed using GCM output and MODTRAN to simulate CLARREO reflectance measurements during the 21st century as a design tool for the CLARREO hyperspectral shortwave imager. With OSSE simulations of hyperspectral reflectance, Feldman et al. [2011a,b] found that shortwave reflectance is able to detect changes in climate variables during the 21st century and improve time-to-detection compared to broadband measurements. The OSSE has been a powerful tool in the design of the CLARREO imager and for understanding the effect of climate change on the spectral variability of reflectance, but it is important to evaluate how well the OSSE simulates the Earth's present-day spectral variability. For this evaluation we have used hyperspectral reflectance measurements from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY), a shortwave spectrometer that was operational between March 2002 and April 2012. To study the spectral variability of SCIAMACHY-measured and OSSE-simulated reflectance, we used principal component analysis (PCA), a spectral decomposition technique that identifies dominant modes of variability in a multivariate data set. Using quantitative comparisons of the OSSE and SCIAMACHY PCs, we have quantified how well the OSSE captures the spectral variability of Earth?s climate system at the beginning of the 21st century relative to SCIAMACHY measurements. These results showed that the OSSE and SCIAMACHY data sets share over 99% of their total variance in 2004. Using the PCs and the temporally distributed reflectance spectra projected onto the PCs (PC scores), we can study the temporal variability of the observed and simulated reflectance spectra. Multivariate time series analysis of the PC scores using techniques such as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Multichannel SSA will provide information about the temporal variability of the dominant variables. Quantitative comparison techniques can evaluate how well the OSSE reproduces the temporal variability observed by SCIAMACHY spectral reflectance measurements during the first decade of the 21st century. PCA of OSSE-simulated reflectance can also be used to study how the dominant spectral variables change on centennial scales for forced and unforced climate change scenarios. To have confidence in OSSE predictions of the spectral variability of hyperspectral reflectance, it is first necessary for us to evaluate the degree to which the OSSE simulations are able to reproduce the Earth?s present-day spectral variability.

Roberts, Yolanda↗
NASA NTRS1977

The impact of satellite soundings upon the NMC analysis and forecast system

The importance of satellite-derived soundings on National Meteorological Center weather analysis and forecast was studied by comparing summertime DST (Aug. 18-Sept. 4, 1975) forecasts generated by analyses with and without both the operational VTPR soundings from NOAA-4 and the experimental soundings derived from the infrared and microwave instruments aboard Nimbus-6. Objective and subjective procedures, including evaluation of standard skill scores and judgment by skilled synopticians, was used to evaluate the importance of satellite data. The investigation shows that satellite data do not aid numerical weather prediction in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tracton, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Video requirements for remote medical diagnosis

Minimal television system requirements for medical telediagnosis were studied. The experiment was conducted with the aid of a simulated telemedicine system. The first step involved making high quality videotape recordings of actual medical examinations conducted by a skilled nurse under the direction of a physician watching on closed circuit television. These recordings formed the baseline for the study. Next, these videotape recordings were electronically degraded to simulate television systems of less than broadcast quality. Finally, the baseline and degraded video recordings were shown (via a statistically randomized procedure) to a large number of physicians who attempted to reach a correct medical diagnosis and to visually recognize key physical signs for each patient. By careful scoring and analysis of the results of these viewings, the pictorial and diagnostic limitations as a function of technical video characteristics were to be defined.

Davis, J. G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying Urban Pluvial Frequency Flooding Hotspots Using the Topographic Control Index and Remote Sensing Radar Images for Early Warning Systems

Identifying areas that frequently experience post-rainfall ponding is essential for effective flood mitigation and planning. This study integrates Sentinel-1 radar imagery and the Topographic Control Index (TCI) to identify 378 flood-prone urban depressions in Beaumont, Texas. Out of 159 major rainfall events, only six had Sentinel-1 radar imagery acquired within six hours of peak rainfall, and these were used to generate the flood frequency map; the ground-based flood sensor data were used to verify that these selected events corresponded to actual peak rainfall and to validate radar-detected water pixels. Validation results showed 100% precision, 70.87% recall, an F1-score of 82.95%, and 71.32% overall accuracy. Approximately 84% of medium-to-high TCI depressions overlapped with Beaumont’s two-year inundation map, confirming a strong relationship between TCI and observed flooding. A total of 124 depressions retained significant water, and after excluding 25 engineered detention ponds, 99 natural depressions remained flood vulnerable. Among these, 74 depressions with medium or high TCI were identified as the highest-priority nuisance flooding hotspots. The results demonstrate that combining TCI with radar imagery provides a reliable and cost-effective approach for identifying areas prone to frequent urban ponding. This framework supports practical decision-making for drainage improvements, hotspot identification, and early-warning system development in urban flood-prone regions.

Sentinel-1 radar imagery↗
NASA NTRS2012

13 Things That Saved Apollo 13

Perhaps, the most exciting rescue, terrestrial or extra-terrestrial, is the successful return of the Apollo 13 crew to Earth in April of 1970. The mission s warning system engineer, Jerry Woodfill, who remains a NASA employee after 47 years of government service has examined facets of the rescue for the past 42 years. He will present "13 Things That Saved Apollo 13" from the perspective of his real time experience as well as two score years of study. Many are recent discoveries never before published in mission reports, popular books or documentary and Hollywood movies depicting the rescue.

Woodfill, Jared↗
DOE OSTI2020

Targeted alpha therapy in a systemic mouse model of prostate cancer - a feasibility study

225 Ac-PSMA-617 targeted-therapy has demonstrated efficacy in 75-85% of patients; however, responses are not durable. We aimed to establish translatable mouse models of disseminated prostate cancer (PCa) to evaluate effectiveness of 225 Ac-PSMA-617 at various disease stages. Methods: C4-2, C4-2B, or 22Rv1 cells were injected into the left ventricle of male NSG mice. Disease progression was monitored using bioluminescence imaging (BLI). For treatment, mice were injected with 40 kBq 225 Ac-PSMA-617 at one (early treatment cohort) or three weeks (late treatment cohort) post-inoculation. Treatment efficacy was monitored by BLI of whole-body tumor burden. Mice were sacrificed based on body conditioning score. Results: C4-2 cells yielded metastases in liver, lungs, spleen, stomach, bones, and brain - achieving a clinically relevant model of widespread metastatic disease. The disease burden in the early treatment cohort was stable over 27 weeks in 5/9 mice and progressive in 4/9 mice. These mice were sacrificed due to brain metastases. Median survival of the late treatment cohort was superior to controls (13 vs. 7 weeks; p<0.0001) but inferior to that in the early treatment cohort (13 vs. 27 weeks; p<0.001). Late cohort mice succumbed to extensive liver involvement. The 22Rv1 and C4-2B systemic models were not used for treatment due to high kidney metastatic burden or low take rate, respectively. Conclusion: C4-2 cells reproduced metastatic cancer spread most relevantly. Early treatment with 225 Ac-PSMA-617 prevented liver metastases and led to significant survival benefit. Late treatment improved survival without reducing tumor burden in the liver, the main site of metastasis. The current findings suggest that early 225 Ac-PSMA-617 intervention is more efficacious in the setting of widespread metastatic PCa.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
NASA NTRS2019

Impact of GMI All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in the NASA GEOS Forecast System

The assimilation of cloud- and precipitation-affected ("all-sky") radiances has become an important focus of development at most numerical weather prediction centers. Efforts at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have focused on all-sky assimilation of GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiances, which became operational in the GEOS real-time production system in July 2018. Implementation of the all-sky capability required several upgrades to the GEOS hybrid 4D-EnVar assimilation infrastructure including the addition of control variables for cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain and snow, enhancements to the radiative transfer model, new hybrid background and observational error models, and modified quality control and bias correction procedures. This talk describes the impact of GMI all-sky radiance assimilation on GEOS analyses and forecasts as determined from examination of various metrics including statistics of background departures and analysis increments, forecast skill scores, and forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI) calculations. It is shown that in addition to the hydrometeors themselves, the initial wind, temperature and pressure fields all undergo significant dynamic adjustment in response to the analyzed cloud and precipitation features. Assimilation of GMI radiances leads to improved forecasts of lower tropospheric wind, temperature and humidity, especially in the tropics. The largest forecast improvements occur during the first 48 hours, with diminishing impact thereafter. However, combining GMI all-sky assimilation with improvements to the GEOS model physics as in the recent implementation of the real-time production system, extends these forecast improvements well in to the medium range. FSOI results based on a 24-hr moist global energy norm show that GMI radiances provide nearly uniform beneficial impact throughout the tropics, with more mixed impacts in the subtropics. While the overall impact of GMI is smaller than that of other, much more numerous microwave and hyperspectral infrared radiance types, its impact is among the largest of all radiance types on a per-observation basis.

Gelaro, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2003

Assimilation of Precipitation Information Retrieved from Passive Microwave Sensors

Estimates of surface precipitation and the associated vertical latent heating structure can be retrieved from space-borne passive microwave sensors such as the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). Studies have shown that assimilation of microwave rain rates can improve the quality of global analysis and forecast. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers are beginning to make operational use of these data. In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission to be launched around 2007. Realizing the full potential of these observations in data assimilation will require continued advances in retrieval algorithms, assimilation techniques, and model physics. I present results from two research efforts at NASA GSFC. The first is on the assimilation of tropical precipitation using temperature/moisture tendency corrections within a continuous variational assimilation framework to improve analyses and forecasts produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system. Results show that assimilation of TMI and SSM/I rain rates improves not only precipitation and moisture, but also the related clouds, radiation energy fluxes, and large-scale circulations in GEOS analyses. The improved analyses also yield better short-range forecasts, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) threat scores, and storm track predictions. The second part consists of results from exploratory experiments on variational assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating profiles within the general framework of model parameter estimation as a way to identify systematic model errors and optimize physical paremeterization schemes in global forecast and climate models.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Younger facial looks are associate with a lower likelihood of several age-related morbidities in the middle-aged to elderly

Abstract Background Looking older for one’s chronological age is associated with a higher mortality rate. Yet it remains unclear how perceived facial age relates to morbidity and the degree to which facial ageing reflects systemic ageing of the human body. Objectives To investigate the association between ΔPA and age-related morbidities of different organ systems, where ΔPA represents the difference between perceived age (PA) and chronological age. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis on data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands. High-resolution facial photographs of 2679 men and women aged 51.5–87.8 years of European descent were used to assess PA. PA was estimated and scored in 5-year categories using these photographs by a panel of men and women who were blinded for chronological age and medical history. A linear mixed model was used to generate the mean PAs. The difference between the mean PA and chronological age was calculated (ΔPA), where a higher (positive) ΔPA means that the person looks younger for their age and a lower (negative) ΔPA that the person looks older. ΔPA was tested as a continuous variable for association with ageing-related morbidities including cardiovascular, pulmonary, ophthalmological, neurocognitive, renal, skeletal and auditory morbidities in separate regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex (model 1) and additionally for body mass index, smoking and sun exposure (model 2). Results We observed 5-year higher ΔPA (i.e. looking younger by 5 years for one’s age) to be associated with less osteoporosis [odds ratio (OR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62–0.93], less chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.95), less age-related hearing loss (model 2; B = −0.76, 95% CI −1.35 to −0.17) and fewer cataracts (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73–0.97), but with better global cognitive functioning (g-factor; model 2; B = 0.07, 95% CI 0.04–0.10). Conclusions PA is associated with multiple morbidities and better cognitive function, suggesting that systemic ageing and cognitive ageing are, to an extent, externally visible in the human face.

Mekić, Selma↗