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At least 361 records · Page 20

Divide and conquer: separating the two probabilities in seismic phase picking

There are two fundamental probabilities in the seismic phase picking process—the probability of the existence of a seismic phase (detection probability) and the probability associated with the phase arrival time estimation (timing probability). The nearly ubiquitous approach in developing deep learning phase picking models is to use a kernel, such as a truncated Gaussian, to mask the labelled phase arrival time and train a segmentation model. Once a model is trained, the times of the peaks in the output are taken as phase arrival times (picks), and the height of the peaks are taken as ‘probability’ of the picks. Here, we show that this ‘probability’ represents neither the detection nor the timing probability because this approach forces the output to follow the shape of the kernel. We introduce an approach using two models to estimate these two distinct probabilities. We use a binary classifier with a calibrated confidence to address the detection probability and a multiclass classifier to obtain a probability mass function to address the timing probability. This new approach can make the deep learning-based phase picking process more interpretable and provide options to logically control seismic monitoring workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data - Part 2

Rainfall rate estimates from space-borne k&ents are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science commu&y. One-of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRh4M) facility rain rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations fiom the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). Part I of this study describes improvements in the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce cloud latent heating and drying as additional algorithm products. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, OP5resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean fiom the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over forerunning algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm, and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly, 2.5 deg. -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data are limited, TMI estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with: (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem, and/or; (b) physically-consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous, 0.5 deg-resolution rain rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons to collocated radar. Error model modifications for non-raining situations will be required, however. Sampling error appears to represent only a fraction of the total error in monthly, 2S0-resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to physical inconsistency or non-representativeness of cloud-resolving model simulated profiles supporting the algorithm.

Yang, Song↗

An investigation of the effects of mass loss, shape change and real gas aerodynamics on a Jovian atmospheric reconstruction experiment

A survey of the effects of mass loss, shape change and real-gas aerodynamics on a Jovian atmospheric reconstruction experiment is carried out. Techniques used to reconstruct atmospheric profiles from entry probe measurements are discussed and some of the parameters which affect their accuracy are identified. Trajectory analyses and real-gas, radiatively-coupled flow field analyses (which include the effects of mass loss and shape change) are carried out for several candidate probe configurations. From these analyses, uncertainties in the atmospheric reconstruction procedure are estimated. Finally, the prospects for reducing these uncertainties by optimizing probe configuration and by instrumentation of the probe heat shield to measure actual shape change are considered.

Walberg, G. D.↗

Utilizing the Vertical Variability of Precipitation to Improve Radar QPE

Characteristics of the melting layer and raindrop size distribution can be exploited to further improve radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). Using dual-polarimetric radar and disdrometers, we found that the characteristic size of raindrops reaching the ground in stratiform precipitation often varies linearly with the depth of the melting layer. As a result, a radar rainfall estimator was formulated using D(sub m) that can be employed by polarimetric as well as dual-frequency radars (e.g., space-based radars such as the GPM DPR), to lower the bias and uncertainty of conventional single radar parameter rainfall estimates by as much as 20%. Polarimetric radar also suffers from issues associated with sampling the vertical distribution of precipitation. Hence, we characterized the vertical profile of polarimetric parameters (VP3)-a radar manifestation of the evolving size and shape of hydrometeors as they fall to the ground-on dual-polarimetric rainfall estimation. The VP3 revealed that the profile of ZDR in stratiform rainfall can bias dual-polarimetric rainfall estimators by as much as 50%, even after correction for the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR). The VP3 correction technique that we developed can improve operational dual-polarimetric rainfall estimates by 13% beyond that offered by a VPR correction alone.

Precipitation↗

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part II: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data

Rainfall rate estimates from spaceborne microwave radiometers are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science community. One of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) facility rain-rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). In Part I of this series, improvements of the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce latent heating as an additional algorithm product are described. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, 0.5 deg. -resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean from the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over earlier algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly 2.5 -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data is limited, TMI-estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain-rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem and/or (b) physically consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous 0.5 deg. -resolution rain-rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons with collocated radar. Error model modifications for nonraining situations will be required, however. Sampling error represents only a portion of the total error in monthly 2.5 -resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to random and systematic algorithm errors arising from the physical inconsistency and/or nonrepresentativeness of cloud-resolving-model-simulated profiles that support the algorithm.

Yang, Song↗

Testing the gravitational instability hypothesis?

We challenge a widely accepted assumption of observational cosmology: that successful reconstruction of observed galaxy density fields from measured galaxy velocity fields (or vice versa), using the methods of gravitational instability theory, implies that the observed large-scale structures and large-scale flows were produced by the action of gravity. This assumption is false, in that there exist nongravitational theories that pass the reconstruction tests and gravitational theories with certain forms of biased galaxy formation that fail them. Gravitational instability theory predicts specific correlations between large-scale velocity and mass density fields, but the same correlations arise in any model where (a) structures in the galaxy distribution grow from homogeneous initial conditions in a way that satisfies the continuity equation, and (b) the present-day velocity field is irrotational and proportional to the time-averaged velocity field. We demonstrate these assertions using analytical arguments and N-body simulations. If large-scale structure is formed by gravitational instability, then the ratio of the galaxy density contrast to the divergence of the velocity field yields an estimate of the density parameter Omega (or, more generally, an estimate of beta identically equal to Omega(exp 0.6)/b, where b is an assumed constant of proportionality between galaxy and mass density fluctuations. In nongravitational scenarios, the values of Omega or beta estimated in this way may fail to represent the true cosmological values. However, even if nongravitational forces initiate and shape the growth of structure, gravitationally induced accelerations can dominate the velocity field at late times, long after the action of any nongravitational impulses. The estimated beta approaches the true value in such cases, and in our numerical simulations the estimated beta values are reasonably accurate for both gravitational and nongravitational models. Reconstruction tests that show correlations between galaxy density and velocity fields can rule out some physically interesting models of large-scale structure. In particular, successful reconstructions constrain the nature of any bias between the galaxy and mass distributions, since processes that modulate the efficiency of galaxy formation on large scales in a way that violates the continuity equation also produce a mismatch between the observed galaxy density and the density inferred from the peculiar velocity field. We obtain successful reconstructions for a gravitational model with peaks biasing, but we also show examples of gravitational and nongravitational models that fail reconstruction tests because of more complicated modulations of galaxy formation.

Babul, Arif↗

Inferring the spatial and energy distribution of gamma-ray burst sources. 1: Methodology

We describe Bayesian methods for analyzing the distribution of gamma-ray burst peak photon fluxes and directions. These methods fit the differential distribution, and have the following advantages over rival methods: (1) they do not destroy information by binning or averaging the data (as do, say, chi squared, the averaged value of V/V(sub max), and angular moment analyses); (2) they straightforwardly handle uncertainties in the measured quantities; (3) they analyze the strength and direction information jointly; (4) they use information available about nondetections; and (5) they automatically identify and account for biases and selection effects given a precise description of the experiment. In these methods, the most important information needed about the instrument threshold is not its value at the times of burst triggers, as is used in the average value of V/V(sub max) analyses, but rather the value of the threshold at times when no trigger occurred. We show that this information can be summarized as an average detection efficiency that is similar to the product of the exposure and efficiency reported in the First Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) Burst (1B) Catalog, but significantly different from it at low fluxes. We also quantify an important bias that results from estimating the peak flux by scanning the burst to find the peak number of counts in a window of specified duration, as was done for the 1B Catalog. When the duration of the peak of the light curve is longer than the window duration, a simple flux estimate based on the peak counts significantly overestimates the peak flux in a nonlinear fashion that distorts the shape of the log(N)-log(P) distribution. This distortion also corrupts analyses of the V/V(sub max) distribution that use ratios of counts above background to estimate V/V(sub max). The Bayesian calculation specifies how to account for this bias. Implementation of the Bayesian approach requires some changes in the way burst data are reported that we describe in detail. Subsequent papers will report analyses of the 1B Catalog data using the methods described here.

Loredo, Thomas J.↗

Delaminations in composite plates under transverse static or impact loads - A model

A method is presented for calculating the locations, shapes, and sizes of delaminations which occur in a fiber reinforced composite plate subjected to transverse static or dynamic (impact) loads. The plate may be simply supported, clamped, or free along its edges. A model of the delamination formation was developed. This model was then coupled with a finite element analysis. The model and the finite element analysis were implemented by a computer code which can be used to estimate the load at which damage is initiated as well as the locations, shapes, and sizes of the delaminations.

Finn, Scott R.↗

Near-threshold photoionization of xenon metastable atoms

Photoionization from metastable levels of atomic xenon has been studied in the wavelength range from the threshold at 4622 A to 2700 A. Structure in the photoionization signal, due to autoionization, is analyzed to provide term values, lifetimes, and line-shape parameters of the autoionizing states. These parameters, together with the estimated absolute cross sections, are used to derive discrete and continuum oscillator strengths.

Rundel, R. D.↗

Estimation of spectral reflectance curves from multispectral image data

A technique is presented for estimating spectral reflectance curves from multispectral image data even if the spectral samples are obtained from channels whose spectral responsivity is not narrowband. It is demonstrated that these reflectance estimates can be written as a linear combination of the spectral samples and that, analogous to Shannon's sampling theorem, if the spectral reflectance is a natural cubic spline, it can be estimated exactly provided the number of spectral channels is sufficiently large. Simulation results suggest that the accuracy of the spectral reflectance estimates is quite good and very insensitive to the spectral responsivity shapes.

Park, S. K.↗

Relative ages of flow units in Mare Imbrium and Sinus Iridum

A method for determining relative ages from low-resolution Lunar Orbiter photographs of lunar plains has been developed and applied to Mare Imbrium and Sinus Iridum. The method is an extension of previous ones and uses the shapes of craters and a small-impact erosion model to estimate the net accumulated impact flux. The net impact flux that has accumulated on a surface of uniform age is a measure of relative age of that surface and can be estimated by the largest diameters of craters that have been degraded by the net impact flux. Frequency distributions or relative ages indicate that there are four major units present in Mare Imbrium and Sinus Iridum. The older mare units are generally found along the edge of the basin and the younger units in the center. A similar distribution of ages of units in Mare Serenitatis shows the two basins have had similar filling histories. Filling histories for other circular basins may be similar to these two.

Boyce, J. M.↗

Continuum variability of the optically-active radio-quiet quasar GQ Comae

The use of thermal accretion disk models to explain the continuum shape and variability of GQ Comae is outlined. The mass is estimated at 7 x 10 to the 8th solar masses and its accretion rate at 0.1-0.2 solar masses per year. The effects of assuming different values of the inclination angle of the disk, and of the specific angular momentum of the central black hole, are explored. Additional uncertainties in the emergent fluxes in these models are discussed.

Sitko, Michael L.↗

Spatial extent of the plasma injection region in the cusp-magnetosheath interface

Using data from the high-altitude plasma instrument onboard the DE 1 spacecraft, the perpendicular (to the magnetic field) extent of the region of ion injection into the cusp has been estimated by measuring the energy dispersion of the ion V-shaped signatures seen on energy-time spectrograms. Three different passes were chosen based on the clarity of the V-shaped ion signatures. These studies indicate that the injection region has a dimension perpendicular to the magnetic field in the range D = 1000-6000 km at a radial distance of about 10 earth radii, in good agreement with reported diameters of flux transfer events (FTEs). Similar measurement of the energy dispersion of an electron V-shaped signature observed on one pass has yielded a parallel extent of the plasma injection region in the range D(parallel) = 100-350 km. The results lead to the suggestion that the plasma within an FTE travels down the field line as the field line convects antisunward, and may subsequently be observed in the polar cusp as a V-shaped signature.

Menietti, J. D.↗

Observations of Cygnus X-2 with IUE - Ultraviolet results from a multiwavelength campaign

IUE observations of Cyg X-2 obtained during June and October 1988 are reported and analyzed, with reference to data from simultaneous X-ray and radio observations and the predictions of theoretical models. The results are presented in extensive tables and graphs and characterized in detail. The UV flux is shown to increase monotonically as the X-ray emission moves along the Z-shaped trajectory from the horizontal to the flaring branch and the estimated mass accretion rate increases from about 6 x 10 to the -9th to 1.6 x 10 to the -8th solar mass/yr. Model calculations indicate that X-ray illumination of the accretion disk accounts for at least 80 percent of the observed UV emission, with 20 percent or less from the X-ray-heated surface of the companion star and less than 1 percent from the cool surface.

Vrtilek, S. D.↗

Wall shear stress estimates in coronary artery constrictions

Wall shear stress estimates from laminar boundary layer theory were found to agree fairly well with the magnitude of shear stress levels along coronary artery constrictions obtained from solutions of the Navier Stokes equations for both steady and pulsatile flow. The relatively simple method can be used for in vivo estimates of wall shear stress in constrictions by using a vessel shape function determined from a coronary angiogram, along with a knowledge of the flow rate.

Back, L. H.↗

Chronology, eruption duration, and atmospheric contribution of Apollinaris Patera, Mars

Geologic mapping from Viking image data of the Martian volcano Apollinaris Patera allowed identification of 6 major events that shaped its current morphology. Derivation of new topographic data allowed accurate estimates of the volume of erupted products from which estimates of an eruption duration are presented for the edifice and its corresponding atmospheric water contribution. Topographic data were acquired using stereophotogrammetric (Viking picnos 603A42, 639A92) techniques in both profiling and contouring modes (1 km contour). The profiling mode results in a more precise measurement than the contouring mode, but is limited in its areal coverage. The contour data are used in a more general sense to provide synoptic coverage for the volcano. These new stereophotogrammetric measurements constrain the topography to an accuracy of approximately 800 m vertically and approximately 1000 m horizontally. Conversion of the derived contour map to a raster based digital elevation model (DEM) was done by a growing contours interpolation. An ambiguity arises in this volume calculation due to an uncertainty regarding the actual base of the volcano relative to the pre-existing topography. Thus, the volume estimate was bracketed by using the 100 m and the 750 m elevations, which generally correspond to the lower and upper portions of the circumferential basal scarp, respectively. The resulting volumes are 103,000 cu km and 97,000 cu km; therefore the total volume of Apollinaris Patera is estimated to be approximately 100,000 cu km.

Robinson, M. S.↗

Is There a CME Rate Floor? CME and Magnetic Flux Values for the Last Four Solar Cycle Minima

The recent prolonged activity minimum has led to the question of whether there is a base level of the solar magnetic field evolution that yields a ''floor'' in activity levels and also in the solar wind magnetic field strength. Recently, a flux transport model coupled with magneto-frictional simulations has been used to simulate the continuous magnetic field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from 1996 to 2012. Flux rope eruptions in the simulations are estimated (Yeates), and the results are in remarkable agreement with the shape of the SOlar Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment coronal mass ejection (CME) rate distribution. The eruption rates at the two recent minima approximate the observed-corrected CME rates, supporting the idea of a base level of solar magnetic activity. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing annual averages of the CME occurrence rates during the last four solar cycle minima with several tracers of the global solar magnetic field. We conclude that CME activity never ceases during a cycle, but maintains a base level of 1 CME every 1.5 to approx. 3 days during minima. We discuss the sources of these CMEs.

Webb, D. F.↗

Quantification of CO2 and CH4 emissions over Sacramento, California, based on divergence theorem using aircraft measurements

Emission estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) and the meteorological factors affecting them are investigated over Sacramento, California, using an aircraft equipped with a cavity ring-down greenhouse gas sensor as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) project. To better constrain the emission fluxes, we designed flights in a cylindrical pattern and computed the emission fluxes from two flights using a kriging method and Gauss’s divergence theorem. Differences in wind treatment and assumptions about background concentrations affect the emission estimates by a factor of 1.5 to 7. The uncertainty is also impacted by meteorological conditions and distance from the emission sources. The vertical layer averaging affects the flux estimate, but the choice of raw wind or mass-balanced wind is more important than the thickness of the vertical averaging for massbalanced wind for both urban and local scales. The importance of vertical mass transfer for flux estimates is examined, and the difference in the total emission estimate with and without vertical mass transfer is found to be small, especially at the local scale. The total flux estimates accounting for the entire circumference are larger than those based solely on measurements made in the downwind region. This indicates that a closed-shape flight profile can better contain total emissions relative to a one-sided curtain flight because most cities have more than one point source and wind direction can change with time and altitude. To reduce the uncertainty of the emission estimate, it is important that the sampling strategy account not only for known source locations but also possible unidentified sources around the city. Our results highlight that aircraft-based measurements using a closed-shape flight pattern are an efficient and useful strategy for identifying emission sources and estimating local- and city-scale greenhouse gas emission fluxes.

Ju-Mee Ryoo↗