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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

X-Ray Energy Deposition Model for Simulating Asteroid Response to a Nuclear Planetary Defense Mitigation Mission

Abstract In the event of a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact, with sufficient warning time, deploying a nuclear device remains a powerful option for planetary defense if a kinetic impactor or other means of deflection proves insufficient. Predicting the effectiveness of a potential nuclear deflection or disruption mission depends on accurate multiphysics simulations of the device's X-ray energy deposition into the asteroid and the resulting material ablation. The relevant physics in these simulations span many orders of magnitude, require a variety of different complex physics packages, and are computationally expensive. Having an efficient and accurate way of modeling this system is necessary for exploring a mission's sensitivity to the asteroid's range of physical properties. To expedite future simulations, we present a completed X-ray energy deposition model developed using the radiation-hydrodynamics code Kull that can be used to initiate a nuclear mitigation mission calculation. The model spans a wide variety of possible mission initial conditions: four different asteroid-like materials at a range of porosities, two different source spectra, and a broad range of radiation fluences, source durations, and angles of incidence. Using blowoff momentum as the primary metric, the model-initiated simulation results match the full radiation-hydrodynamics results to within 10%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field validation of isotropic analytical models for simulating fabric shades

Fabric roller shades are common shading materials used in commercial and residential buildings. Accurately characterizing and modeling shades helps practitioners select the appropriate product and its control strategy based on climate and occupants' priorities, such as visual comfort and view to outdoors. Previous studies established a generalized method for modeling complex fenestration systems using data-driven tabulated bidirectional scattering distribution functions. However, deploying such a method at scale to all fabric shading products on the market is too costly and time-consuming. Analytical models that are based on a limited set of measurements (e.g., normal-normal and normal-hemispherical visible transmittance and reflectance, and directional cut-off angles) can be used to model the wide variety of shading products on the market. This study evaluates the performance of two isotropic analytical models, Roos-Wienold and Modified-Kotey, for modeling fabric roller shades, with a focus on the model's ability to predict occupant visual comfort. The performance evaluation was conducted through laboratory and field measurements and simulations. The results showed that both models are sufficient for predicting vertical illuminance at seated eye-level. Roos-Wienold model was able to predict binary visual comfort classification (glare/no-glare) under a wide range of luminance conditions, while Modified-Kotey model did not perform as well under high-contrast low-adaptation conditions. Both models are insufficient in predicting visual comfort at a four-point scale (e.g., imperceptible, perceptible, disturbing, intolerable). The two isotropic models become less accurate when the fabric exhibits high anisotropy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem fires and biomass burning-induced carbon emissions in China over the past two decades

Fire is a major type of disturbance that has important influences on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycles. Yet our understanding of ecosystem fires and their carbon cycle consequences is still limited, largely due to the difficulty of large-scale fire monitoring and the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic factors. Here, using data from satellite-derived fire observations and ecosystem model simulations, we performed a comprehensive investigation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of China's ecosystem fire disturbances and their carbon emissions over the past two decades (1997–2016). Satellite-derived results showed that on average about 3.47 - 4.53 x 10 4 km 2 of the land was burned annually during the past two decades, among which annual burned forest area was about 0.81 - 1.25 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 0.33-0.51% of the forest area in China. Biomass burning emitted about 23.02 TgC per year. Compared to satellite products, simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELM) strongly overestimated China's burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions. Annual burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions were high for boreal forest in Northeast China's Daxing'anling region and subtropical dry forest in South Yunnan, as revealed by both the satellite product and the model simulations. Our results suggest that climate and anthropogenic factors play critical roles in controlling the spatial and seasonal distribution of China's ecosystem fire disturbances. Our findings highlight the importance of multiple complementary approaches in assessing ecosystem fire disturbance and its carbon consequences. Further studies are required to improve the methods of observing and modelling China's ecosystem fire disturbances, which will provide valuable information for fire management and ecosystem sustainability in an era when both human activities and the natural environment are rapidly changing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic simulations of temporally and spatially variable Fe cycling within a floodplain aquifer

This data package contains model input and output files for local and global sensitivity analysis (SA) of a reactive transport model simulating redox cycling within a floodplain aquifer. The reaction network is implemented in CrunchFlow and focuses on spatially and temporally heterogeneous Fe cycling, though it contains several other species and redox pathways (37 aqueous species and 7 minerals in total). The package contains data from 600 Monte Carlo simulations (for global SA) and 104 one-at-a-time simulations (for local SA). It includes all input files required to run the CrunchFlow model, as well as limited model output – .csv files containing time series of primary species concentrations at 21 grid cells within the domain. These time series files contain the following species: H+, CO32-, SO42-, Cl-, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Fe(II), Fe(III), HS-, CH3COO-, O2(aq), S(aq), and Br-.These data were used to demonstrate the application of a novel form of global SA, distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA) to a reactive transport model. The 2D model simulates the export of reduced species from pockets of fine-grained, organic-rich sediments embedded in a coarse sand aquifer. Stochastic simulations jointly varied 17 key model input parameters across several orders of magnitude, including the spatial variability of each parameter. DGSA on the model results reveal that the amplitude and variability of exported Fe(II) are most sensitive to the interaction between sand permeability and individual reaction rates. By contrast, the propagation of reducing conditions downgradient from the fine-grained lenses depends most heavily on the rate of dissolved organic carbon and sulfate release from the fines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rendezvous algorithms for large-scale modeling and simulation

Rendezvous algorithms encode a communication pattern that is useful when processors sending data do not know who the receiving processors should be, or vice versa. The idea is to define an intermediate decomposition where datums from different sending processors can ”rendezvous” to perform a computation, in a manner that both the senders and eventual receivers of the results can identify the appropriate rendezvous processor. Though they were originally designed for interpolating between overlaid grids with independent parallel decompositions (Plimpton et al., 2004), we have recently found rendezvous algorithms useful for a variety of operations in particle- or grid-based simulation codes when running large problems on large numbers of processors. In particular, we show they can perform well when a load-balanced intermediate decomposition is randomized and not spatial, requiring all-to-all communication to move data between processors. In this case rendezvous algorithms leverage the large bisection communication bandwidths which parallel machines provide. We describe how rendezvous algorithms work in a scientific computing context and give specific examples for molecular dynamics and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo codes which result in dramatic performance improvements versus simpler algorithms which do not scale as well. We explain how a generic rendezvous algorithm can be implemented, and also point out similarities with the MapReduce paradigm popularized by Google and Hadoop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient Multi-Scale, Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Numerical Model for Simulation of Long-Term Stability of Rooms for Nuclear Waste Disposal

This project demonstrated the feasibility of developing a numerical modeling tool that provides an efficient and unique approach to analyze the geomechanical performance of a deep geological repository (DGR) for high-level nuclear waste. The numerical modeling tool is physics-based and models the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes during the required time (up to one million years) for a DGR. The unique capability of the developed code is explicit representation of fracturing and a discrete fracture network (DFN) in the model that includes the entire repository layout for simulated time of one million years. Therefore, it can potentially address one of the challenges of analysis of a DGR, which is efficient numerical simulation of a multi-scale, physics-based models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance Testing and Assessment of Protection Scheme Using Real-Time Hardware-in-the-Loop and IEC 61850 Standard

The main challenge of the microgrid is to design a suitable protection scheme due to the complexity of the architecture of the microgrid. The importance of the proposed protection technique is threefold. First, it presents a co-simulation platform to integrate between a simulated model on power system computer aided design (PSCAD)/real time digital simulator computer aided design (RSCAD) software’s and physical devices schweitzer engineering laboratories (SEL) 421-7 relays to protect the microgrid that includes different resources connected based on inverter interface. Second, it presents a comprehensive hardware/software setup to test the protective relays in a closed loop system and shows how to configure the protective relay’s International Electrotechnical Commission 61850 communications. Third, IEEE 1588 standard is used to provide sub nanoseconds latency between the simulated model that emulated on real time digital simulator (RTDS) and the external devices. Also, the measurement signals are synchronized between RTDS and the external devices using giga-transceiver synchronization card (GTSYNC) interface card and SEL-2488 satellite-synchronized network clock. The results showed that the co-simulation infrastructure introduces a highly dependable design, analysis, and testing environment for cyber and physical data flow in the system. Besides that, the voltages at ac/dc sides and frequency at fault condition were maintained due to the energy storage device contributions at different modes of operation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting beam transmission using 2-dimensional phase space projections of hadron accelerators

We present a method to compress the 2D transverse phase space projections from a hadron accelerator and use that information to predict the beam transmission. This method assumes that obtaining at least three projections of the 4D transverse phase space is possible and that an accurate simulation model is available for the beamline. Using a simulated model, we show that—a computer can train a convolutional autoencoder to reduce phase-space information which can later be used to predict the beam transmission. Finally, we argue that although using projections from a realistic nonlinear distribution produces less accurate results, the method still generalizes well.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Evaluation of Co-Simulation for Modeling Coupled Natural Gas and Electricity Networks

Reliance on natural gas for power generation has increased the coupling between gas and power networks. While this coupling can bring operational and economic benefits, it can also yield challenges, as the constraints in one system can impact the other. Co-simulation can capture the constraints and interactions between these systems, but so far, there has been limited comparison of co-simulation results to those of an integrated model. In this work, we develop a new co-simulation framework using the HELICS platform and the SAInt tool for modeling transient gas and AC optimal power flow. We evaluate this co-simulation framework against a fully integrated version of the SAInt power and gas simulators, thus providing a benchmarking of the co-simulation approach. We compare results across the two approaches for two test networks and a network representing the Belgian power and gas networks, testing both normal operating conditions and cases with compressor disruptions. In each of the cases tested, we find nearly identical results from the two approaches across various metrics of interest, such as nodal pressure, gas flow rates, and active power generation. This alignment suggests that co-simulation can yield comparable results to fully integrated models for modeling coupled gas and electricity networks.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerated Fuel Qualification of Fast Modular Reactor Fuel in a Thermal Reactor: Modeling and Simulation Paired with Irradiation Testing

The accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ) methodology is applied by simulating accelerated fuel tests of the General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems’ fuel system for its 44-MW(electric) gas-cooled, fast-spectrum fast modular reactor (FMR). This fuel is comprised of UO 2 pellets in SiGA® cladding, a silicon carbide ceramic matrix composite. Fast reactors, like the FMR, offer many benefits, including high fuel utilization and flexibility, but may require a lengthy material design process if tests are performed using fast neutron irradiation alone. A thermal neutron irradiation can instead be used to rapidly test how well key components of the current material models extend to high burnup. Thermal neutrons produce a different radial power distribution within the pin than fast neutrons. However, the temperature and burnup values for the two neutron types are comparable, and the differences between the simulated fuel responses are relatively small, demonstrating the weak sensitivity of the physics-based fuel model calculations on the neutron type and the irradiation rate. Furthermore, the deformation of the SiGA cladding saturates after about 1 displacement per atom for both neutron spectra. In an accelerated fuel test, the irradiation time required to reach the target fuel burnup can be reduced by a factor of 3 by using a small rodlet with a 45% smaller pellet diameter while maintaining the same linear power. Therefore, the time for data collection up to high burnup can be significantly reduced while maintaining the same temperature profile, which largely determines the material response. Tests of fuel rodlets of standard and compact size will be carried out in the Idaho National Laboratory’s Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), including full size and compact rodlets with varying gap sizes. By applying physics-based mechanistic modeling and simulation in accordance with the AFQ methodology, this type of compact rodlet testing in a thermal test reactor captures the necessary phenomena to test fuel material models up to high burnup and to simulate the expected impact of fast neutron radiation on the fuel in FMR operations. Finally, this approach to testing fast reactor fuels in existing thermal test reactors, paired with advanced physics-based mechanistic modeling and simulation, is expected to be applicable to a range of advanced fuels and will decrease the overall fuel qualification timeframe from decades to years.

Advanced test reactor (ATR)↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Poisson equation method for prescribing fully developed non-Newtonian inlet conditions for computational fluid dynamics simulations in models of arbitrary cross-section

Prescribing inlet boundary conditions for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of internal flow in complex geometries such as anatomical vascular models is challenging. In the absence of patient-specific inlet velocity data, a common approach for long blood vessels is to assume that the inlet flow is fully developed. In vessels of irregular cross section, however, prescribing fully developed conditions is complicated due to the lack of a general closed-form analytical solution. In this study, we develop a simple Poisson equation method for prescribing fully developed inlet conditions for the flow of either Newtonian or non-Newtonian fluids in CFD models of arbitrary cross-section. We first derive the generalized Poisson equation for fully developed flow of a non-Newtonian fluid and we then develop and verify a methodology for numerically computing the solution on any planar boundary domain. In addition, we develop a simple extension of the method for prescribing a non-orthogonal inlet velocity that represents fully developed flow from an upstream tube that is connected to the CFD inlet at a non-orthogonal angle. This may be used to investigate a common source of uncertainty in CFD simulations of internal flow that is due to a lack of information concerning the exact streamwise flow direction at the inlets. Comparison to several Newtonian and non-Newtonian benchmark verification solutions shows the method to be extremely accurate. As a practical demonstration case, we use the method to prescribe fully developed conditions on multiple non-circular inlets for the non-Newtonian flow of blood in a patient-specific model of the inferior vena cava (IVC). Finally, we further demonstrate the utility of the method by performing a sensitivity study using the patient-specific IVC model, wherein we investigate the influence of inlet velocity flow direction on the non-Newtonian IVC hemodynamics. Given its simplicity and computational efficiency, the method is shown to be far superior to alternative approaches for prescribing fully developed inlet conditions in such complicated geometries. In conclusion, to facilitate the adoption of our Poisson equation method, we have distributed our OpenFOAM source code and the associated test cases from this study as open-source software.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and Simulation of Air-Source CO2 Heat Pump Water Heater

Carbon dioxide (CO2) has been widely used as working fluid for the vapor-compression refrigeration systems in large marine device. Due to the potential energy efficiency and the favorable environmental properties of CO2 as a working fluid, CO2 heat pump water heater (HPWH) systems are regarded a promising technology for centralized domestic hot water (DHW) heating in residential and commercial buildings. However, there is still at the early stage of appropriately optimizing and improving the energy performance of CO2 HPWH. This requires CO2 HPWH simulation tools capable of capturing the accurate impact of the emerging compressor, throttle device, and heat exchanger technology on CO2 heat transfer and energy efficiency. In this study, high efficiency components (compressors, pumps, fans, heat exchangers) were identified and applied to the state-of-art CO2 HPWH designs and analyzed their performance by using numerical simulation. This was done by simulating the performance of CO2 HPWH using ACMODEL design model combined with the component models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for orifice tube, map-based compressor, and tube-in-tube gas cooler. ACMODEL is an equipment design model for CO2-based air conditioners and heat pumps developed by Purdue University to account for the details of each component. The simulated CO2 HPWH performance was then compared with the heat pump water heater using conventional refrigerants.

Gao, Zhiming↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling

The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3, documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe the application of the hydraulic property fields and recharge parameters documented in ECF-HANFORD-20-0027, Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model, to the CA flow and fate and transport simulation results to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated results due to input parameter selection. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, models lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. The result of NSCM analysis is a set of F&T simulations that provide an estimate of the range of possible outcomes that are used to quantify the uncertainty in simulated concentrations produced using the base case simulations. The simulated concentrations from all simulations will support calculation of the uncertainty of the total dose calculated in a separate calculation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Dispersal During the Loss-of-Coolant Accident

This document is the compilation of the milestone portion to a larger end of project NEUP report. The executive summary of the modeling portion is provided below: In the event of cladding rupture during a postulated LOCA in a pressurized water reactor, fuel particles, along with fission gases, can be expelled into the reactor core from the fractured fuel rod, a phenomenon referred to as fuel dispersal. The initial stage of fuel dispersal is strongly influenced by the high-pressure ejection of fuel fragments, the size and geometry of the ruptured cladding, and the depressurization history of the fuel rod during the postulated LOCA transient. Depending on the location of the burst orifice relative to the quench front, the dispersal event represents an intricate three-phase flow and heat transfer phenomenon, where high-temperature fuel particles carried by the fission gases interact with the coolant within the narrow subchannels of the fuel assemblies, inducing localized phase change. Given the unique multiphysics nature of this phenomena, the current study develops a dedicated computational framework to predict the mass distribution and cooling of dispersing fuel particles, facilitating post-accident assessment and management of the fuel assemblies. Considering the scale of nuclear reactor applications, a continuum three-fluid model is proposed for simulating the transport of solids within the reactor core. With high-temperature fuel fragments within the liquid media, nucleation sites inducing phase changes are dispersed within the flow domain. Coupled with the fact that the transient dispersal event occurs on different time scales than other three-phase flow applications, this study derives a time-averaged three-fluid flow model without losing generality. The assumptions regarding the continuum treatment of the solid phase and the modeling of fuel dispersal behavior are incorporated to simplify the governing equations and derive applicable closure relations. The computational validation of the model was conducted using adiabatic experimental results obtained from ongoing research at Oregon State University, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during simulated LOCA conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched the probability density functions reported in experimental studies. The transport of fuel particles within a scaled 5 × 5 lattice of a pressurized-water reactor rod bundle geometry was modeled through a two-fluid Eulerian framework. The required boundary conditions were evaluated from the fuel performance code BISON in a postulated large-break LOCA scenario. The modeling framework considered solid fuel particles as granular matter, interacting with the gaseous dry steam phase and fission gases through the governing interfacial momentum exchange between the participating fluids. The simulation results provided the volume fraction of the solids obtained at the bottom surface of the enclosing tank geometry. Postulated LOCA leading to fuel dispersal phenomena involves the strong coupling between fuel thermomechanics, cladding deformation, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel particle transport. Incorporation of such a strong coupling in numerical simulation is performed by coupling the multiphysics solvers. In the case of fuel dispersal, a strong coupled simulation can be performed by coupling the BISON code for fuel performance, the TRACE code for system-level thermal hydraulics, and fuel particle transport in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). For such intricate infrastructure, the MOOSE Framework eases the data transfer between codes. The recent version of MOOSE has incorporated the Navier-Stokes module for the fluid flow. An exploratory exercise was done to gain familiarity with finite volume capabilities in the MOOSE framework to incorporate the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. New finite-volume and auxiliary kernels were introduced to assemble the SA transport equation, compute turbulent viscosity, and evaluate wall distance and diagnostic turbulence terms, fully integrated with existing Navier-Stokes modules. A turbulent lid-driven cavity at a Reynolds number of approximately 10,000 is used for verification. MOOSE shows the robust solver convergence and produces the turbulent features. But it underpredicts the velocity profile and turbulent quantities, emphasizing the need to develop improved SA near-wall treatments (e.g., low-Re corrections or wall functions) as a key direction for future work.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power system model parameter conditioning tool

A power system model parameter conditioning tool including a server control processor in communication with phasor measurement unit monitored data records of multiple disturbance events, a model calibration unit providing event screening, power system model simulation, and simultaneous tuning of model parameters. The model calibration performing a simulation using default model parameters, the processor comparing the simulation results to the monitored data. If the prediction is within threshold, then terminating conditioning; else performing parameter identifiability analysis to determine differing effects of various model parameters on power system model accuracy, selecting a parameter set causing a degradation in power system model prediction, and updating the default model parameters corresponding to members of the parameter set with values selected to reduce the degradation. A method and a non-transitory computer readable medium are also disclosed.

Baone, Chaitanya Ashok↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Thermodynamic Effects on Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Isolated Deep Convection Over the US: A Case Study

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection (IDC) significantly influence local weather conditions and the hydrological cycle across the United States. Their future changes under warming is critical to the society. However, the exact impacts of thermodynamic environmental changes on them are difficult to resolve using climate model simulations which integrate both dynamic and thermodynamic factors. This study explores a theoretical modeling approach to isolate environmental thermodynamic effects on their future changes through a case study. For a 50-day period during the 2020 summer, a pair of convection-permitting model simulations indicate contrasting changes in MCSs and IDC between inland and coastal regions under pseudo global warming. Driven by the thermodynamic environments of these simulations, a single-column parcel model indicates a decrease in the frequency of IDC occurrences, along with increases in duration and precipitation amount under warming, attributable to rising most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), convective inhibition (MUCIN), and precipitable water (PW). A multi-column parcel model reveals contrasting changes in the frequency and mean area of MCSs between inland and coastal regions, underscoring the increase in mean MUCIN over inland regions and increases in mean MUCAPE and PW over coastal regions. The increase in mean MCS area over inland regions is linked to the interplay between accelerated gust fronts and enhanced subsidence strength, which is further traced to the unchanged mean MUCIN but increased mean MUCAPE in large-scale environments. In conclusion, these case study results suggest a major role of thermodynamic environmental changes in controlling characteristics of MCSs and IDC under warming.

Mesoscale convective system↗