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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 361 records · Page 20
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Modeling thermochemistry of fuel and coupling to fuel performance codes

A thermochemical library, Thermochimica, utilizes new algorithms and solvers designed for calculating equilibria of multicomponent and multiphase systems and has been coupled to the nuclear fuel performance code BISON. Thermochimica utilizes a generalized thermochemical database for urania-based fuels that has been under development for a number of years and continues to be expanded. One of the key motivations for use of thermodynamic models is that they can better represent the physics of oxygen migration. The coupling of the BISON code with Thermochimica and examples of its use in representing fuel phenomena are described. In the current implementation in BISON, fluxes are driven by the elemental concentration gradient. However, equilibrium is characterized by the absence of spatial variations of chemical potentials of the system species/components. The driving force to equilibrium (species flux) is proportional to the deviation from equilibrium, i.e., the gradient in chemical potential. It is therefore necessary to integrate chemical potential driven diffusion in the BISON representation of oxygen transport. The diffusion kernels based on thermodynamic models have been developed to simulate multicomponent transport in light water reactor (LWR) materials. The Thermochimica library was used to calculate various thermodynamics properties needed for transport calculations. The library also can calculate properties that are specific to various transport mechanisms for different fuel materials. For example, it can calculate defect site fractions among the sublattices in oxide fuels as a function of temperature, burnup, and stoichiometry. The transport and thermodynamic models are being integrated with other simulation efforts such as calculation of mobility functions that couple fluxes and chemical gradients. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

3P Program: Phenotyping X Prediction = Productivity (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The goal of the 3P Program was to establish integrated, real-time phenotyping and to analyze above- and below-ground plant architecture and total carbon partitioning and allocation to predict heterosis and develop superior crop hybrids by fully leveraging the Sorghum gene pool. There were two overarching themes: 1) the development of a new crop improvement approach utilizing advances in high-throughput phenotyping (HTP), computing, and genomics for public dissemination and 2) leveraging this platform for sorghum crop improvement and commercialization. The Clemson team worked on creating genomic resources and using both statistical learning and high-throughput phenotyping in genomics-assisted breeding. Research was broadly interested in the genetics of carbon partitioning, with the aim of improving crop performance and achieving sustainability. The technology and resources created can be readily found in the public domain and serve to advance scientific understanding of crop genomics and breeding. Genomic prediction was able to identify top crosses to be made, and a hybrid prediction pipeline is in place to drive year-over-year genetic gain. Roots have long been ignored by plant breeders and agronomists, not because they are unimportant but because they are hard to measure. This is an untapped white space of potential insight and innovation. To address this, Hi Fidelity Genetics developed the RootTracker to measure roots in the field on a continuous basis. A database system called RootTracker Tracker was developed to handle data coming from the RootTrackers. In using this device, valuable data was observed for plant breeding, hydrochemical development, and other agricultural biology applications. Carnegie Mellon’s goal was developing new techniques to generate high-resolution 3D models of plants from data collected in the field. The idea was that more useful and more informative phenotypes could be extracted by resolving small features, such as seeds and flowers, and that by modeling in 3D, the spatial structure of plants could be examined. To achieve this, multiple images collected by a new small format structured light stereo imager were fused together. A sorghum panicle modeling pipeline was developed to allow the collection and processing of data. Carolina Seed Systems is an agricultural technology company focused on decarbonizing the agricultural system. Their technology pipeline serves to drive fundamental progress towards creation and distribution of carbon negative crops. The genomic and the engineering technology developed through the 3P Program was leveraged to deliver both value and sustainability from the grower to the consumer. Promising sorghum hybrids were scaled up and commercialized. The overall goal of our research was to integrate, create, and deploy genetic and engineering concepts and technologies to enhance crop productivity in a sustainable fashion. The combination of public and private partners allowed the basic research and hypothesis testing to be quickly accelerated for commercial application by the companies yet maintained that the core framework and academic insights remain in the public domain for continued market disruption, competition, and innovation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of biotic and abiotic factors on home range size and shape of invasive wild pigs ( Sus scrofa )

Determining factors influencing animal movements at a temporal scale that is similar to that at which management actions are conducted (e.g. weekly) is crucial for identifying efficient methods of wildlife conservation and management. Using global positioning system (GPS) data from 49 wild pigs in the southeast United States, we constructed weekly 50% and 95% utilization distributions to quantify the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on weekly core area and home range size, as well as home range shape. Here we found vegetative composition (i.e. proportion of bottomland hardwoods), season (based on forage availability), meteorological conditions (i.e. temperature and pressure), and sex influenced wild pig weekly home range and core area size, while vegetative composition (i.e. proportion of upland pines) and landscape features (i.e. distance to streams) also were important factors influencing home range shape. At close distances to streams, wild pigs had more elongate home ranges when their home ranges comprised less upland pine habitat; however, farther from streams, there was no change in home range shape across fluctuating proportions of upland pines. These results demonstrate that fine-scale wild pig home ranges and movements are pliable from week to week and influenced by several habitat, landscape, and meteorological attributes that can easily be quantified from available land use and meteorological databases. These findings are important for designing monitoring studies, identifying high risk zones for disease transmission, planning response to disease emergence events, and allowing more effective and efficient short-term management planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding, quantifying, and controlling the molecular ordering of semiconducting polymers: from novices to experts and amorphous to perfect crystals

Molecular packing and texture of semiconducting polymers are often critical to the performance of devices using these materials. Although frameworks exist to quantify the ordering, interpretations are often just qualitative, resulting in imprecise use of terminology. Here, we reemphasize the significance of quantifying molecular ordering in terms of degree of crystallinity (volume fractions that are ordered) and quality of ordering and their relation to the size scale of an ordered region. We are motivated in part by our own imprecise and inconsistent use of terminology in the past, as well as the need to have a primer or tutorial reference to teach new group members. We strive to develop and use consistent terminology with regards to crystallinity, semicrystallinity, paracrystallinity, and related characteristics. To account for vastly different quality of ordering along different directions, we classify paracrystals into 2D and 3D paracrystals and use paracrystallite to describe the spatial extent of molecular ordering in 1–10 nm. We show that a deeper understanding of molecular ordering can be achieved by combining grazing-incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering and differential scanning calorimetry, even though not all aspects of these measurements are consistent, and some classification appears to be method dependent. We classify a broad range of representative polymers under common processing conditions into five categories based on the quantitative analysis of the paracrystalline disorder parameter (g) and thermal transitions. A small database is presented for 13 representative conjugated and insulating polymers ranging from amorphous to semi-paracrystalline. Lastly, we outline the challenges to rationally design more perfect polymer crystals and propose a new molecular design approach that envisions conceptual molecular grafting that is akin to strained and unstrained hetero-epitaxy in classic (compound) semiconductors thin film growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electron cyclotron emission detection of neoclassical tearing modes for control for ITER

Successful operation of ITER requires control of magnetic instabilities including neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) that can degrade confinement and lead to disruption. Low latency detection by electron cyclotron emission (ECE) diagnostics has been demonstrated in a few current experiments. Using a synthetic diagnostic, we demonstrate low latency NTM detection for ITER with plasmas described by ITER IMAS database scenarios and with realistic limitations imposed on the instrumentation by these high temperature scenarios. 2/1 NTMs are detected 430 ms after magnetic island seeding and before island locking. The radiometer configuration was optimized using simulation, and the smallest detectable island size was explored. Island sizes of ∼3 cm are detectable at the 2/1 surface. The simulated signals incorporate recent physics models for island growth and rotation, which show early locking and continued island growth after locking and before disruption. This work determines limits for ITER ECE spatial resolution imposed by relativistic broadening of channels, which informs hardware design. Real-time detection is demonstrated in hardware that is required by ITER, including on an NI PXI-7853R FPGA system. Development of a synthetic diagnostic and details of the hardware will be discussed.

Cyclotron radiation↗
DOE OSTI2024

The importance of accounting for landscape position when investigating grasslands: A multidisciplinary characterisation of a Californian coastal grassland

Data from the characterisation of the Point Reyes Field Site, published in AGU Earth's Future under the title: The importance of accounting for landscape position when investigating grasslands: A multidisciplinary characterisation of a Californian coastal grassland. This paper explored the effect of landscape position on the response of a Californian grassland to seasonal changes. All files are csv files. The EMI data contains 8 csv files with a metadata csv explaining the columns. The dataset also includes soil variables including total concentrations calculated from fused samples, then dissolved and measured on ICP-AES for whole-rock elements and ICP-MS for trace elements. Mineral composition was attained using X-ray diffraction at BL 11-3 at SSRL . Data was then run through the High Score database to characterise different mineral phases. total It also includes a table with bulk soil characteristics such as soil pH, cation exchange capacity, and soil textural data. Data from Teros 12 Meter soil moisture, electrical conductivity and temperature sensors are presented in SMS Csv file. While the WL bottom and top files contain data from Piezometers measuring the ground water table. We have included a csv file that contains soil CO2 efflux data from Feb 2021-Oct 2021 in the Point Reyes Grassland Experiment We have included the spatially orientated (easting northing) remotely sensed datasets that were used in the K-means clustering analysis conducted on our site with electrical conductivity, normalised difference vegetation index, elevation, slope, solar radiation, topographic position and wetness index, and a clustering score. Finally there is a list of all the identified grassland species at the site.For more information on flux data, please contact the corresponding author.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating the simulated mean soil carbon transit times by Earth system models using observations

One known bias in current Earth system models (ESMs) is the underestimation of global mean soil carbon (C) transit time ( τ soil ), which quantifies the age of the C atoms at the time they leave the soil. However, it remains unclear where such underestimations are located globally. Here, we constructed a global database of measured τ soil across 187 sites to evaluate results from 12 ESMs. The observations showed that the estimated τ soil was dramatically shorter from the soil incubation studies in the laboratory environment (median = 4 years; interquartile range = 1 to 25 years) than that derived from field in situ measurements (31; 5 to 84 years) with shifts in stable isotopic C( 13 C ) or the stock-over-flux approach. In comparison with the field observations, the multi-model ensemble simulated a shorter median (19 years) anda smaller spatial variation (6 to 29 years) of τ soil across the same site locations. We then found a significant and negative linear correlation between the in situ measured τ soil and mean annual air temperature. The underestimations of modeled τ soil are mainly located in cold and dry biomes, especially tundra and desert.Furthermore, we showed that one ESM (i.e., CESM) has improved its τ soil estimate by incorporation of the soil vertical profile. These findings indicate that the spatial variation of τ soil is a useful benchmark for ESMs, and we recommend more observations and modeling efforts on soil C dynamics in regions limited by temperature and moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integration of GOES Data for Solar Resource Assessment of the Contiguous United States

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), produced by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), provides high-resolution solar resource data for the contiguous United States (CONUS) using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) East and West observations. This study evaluates the integration of multi-satellite data within the GOES-East/West overlap regions, where conventional longitude-based selection methods often produce an artificial boundary seam. Our results demonstrate that an advanced blending algorithm, which incorporates sun-satellite scattering angles and satellite viewing zenith angles, improves NSRDB accuracy and creates a spatially continuous dataset. Validation against ground-based irradiance measurements reveals reductions in both percentage error (PE) and normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE), particularly in the central United States. The dynamical integration of multi-satellite data provides a robust foundation for more precise modeling of solar resource and improved spatiotemporal analysis of solar ramp across the CONUS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Direct numerical simulation of hypersonic turbulent boundary layers: effect of spatial evolution and Reynolds number

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) are performed to investigate the spatial evolution of flat-plate zero-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layers over long streamwise domains ( >300δ i , with δ i the inflow boundary-layer thickness) at three different Mach numbers, 2.5, 4.9 and 10.9, with the surface temperatures ranging from quasiadiabatic to highly cooled conditions. The settlement of turbulence statistics into a fully developed equilibrium state of the turbulent boundary layer has been carefully monitored, either based on the satisfaction of the von Kármán integral equation or by comparing runs with different inflow turbulence generation techniques. The generated DNS database is used to characterize the streamwise evolution of multiple important variables in the high-Mach-number, cold-wall regime, including the skin friction, the Reynolds analogy factor, the shape factor, the Reynolds stresses, and the fluctuating wall quantities. The data confirm the validity of many classic and newer compressibility transformations at moderately high Reynolds numbers (up to friction Reynolds number Re τ ≈1200 ) and show that, with proper scaling, the sizes of the near-wall streaks and superstructures are insensitive to the Mach number and wall cooling conditions. The strong wall cooling in the hypersonic cold-wall case is found to cause a significant increase in the size of the near-wall turbulence eddies (relative to the boundary-layer thickness), which leads to a reduced-scale separation between the large and small turbulence scales, and in turn to a lack of an outer peak in the spanwise spectra of the streamwise velocity in the logarithmic region.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of an Erythema-Weighted UV Model Using Broadband Solar Irradiance Measurements From Eleven U.S. Sites: Preprint

Erythema-weighted UV solar irradiance (UV-E) has a potential impact on human health if the recommended maximum exposure times are exceeded. In spite of this, it is not measured at most sites that measure Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). However, since UV-E is highly correlated with GHI and total ozone content it can be estimated from this information with sufficient accuracy to assisst in public health recommendations. The Power Model (PM) provides a simple method to estimate the erythema-weighted UV irradiance (UV-E) from measured GHI, total ozone column and air mass. In this work, the performance of the PM method is assessed using high-quality data from 11 sites in the continental U.S. (part of SURFRAD and SOLRAD networks) and total ozone estimates publicly available from the MERRA-2 re-analysis database. A three year period (2021- 2023) at 1-minute frequency is considered. The results (for time aggregations of 5 and 60 minutes) show a high Pearson's correlations (> 0.99), consistently positive mean bias deviations (below 13%) and dispersions in the 8-19% range at all sites. Relative values are expressed in terms of the corresponding measurement mean. The performance indicators remain consistent across time resolutions (5 or 60 minutes), suggesting that the model's performance is robust and not significantly affected by short-term variability (which is captured by GHI). Spatial patterns reveal higher biases and RMSD in northern and eastern locations. These values represent a significant improvement over widely used satellite-based global UV-E estimates and open the possibility of using the PM with satellite-based GHI estimates for operational UV-E mapping over the contiguous U.S. territory.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Rare Earth Element Potential in Produced and Geothermal Waters of the United States via Emergent Self-Organizing Maps

This work applies emergent self-organizing map (ESOM) techniques, a form of machine learning, in the multidimensional interpretation and prediction of rare earth element (REE) abundance in produced and geothermal waters in the United States. Visualization of the variables in the ESOM trained using the input data shows that each REE, with the exception of Eu, follows the same distribution patterns and that no single parameter appears to control their distribution. Cross-validation, using a random subsample of the starting data and only using major ions, shows that predictions are generally accurate to within an order of magnitude. Using the same approach, an abridged version of the U.S. Geological Survey Produced Waters Database, Version 2.3 (which includes both data from produced and geothermal waters) was mapped to the ESOM and predicted values were generated for samples that contained enough variables to be effectively mapped. Results show that in general, produced and geothermal waters are predicted to be enriched in REEs by an order of magnitude or more relative to seawater, with maximum predicted enrichments in excess of 1000-fold. Cartographic mapping of the resulting predictions indicates that maximum REE concentrations exceed values in seawater across the majority of geologic basins investigated and that REEs are typically spatially co-associated. The factors causing this co-association were not determined from ESOM analysis, but based on the information currently available, REE content in produced and geothermal waters is not directly controlled by lithology, reservoir temperature, or salinity.

Engle, Mark A. (ORCID:0000000152587374)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regridding uncertainty for statistical downscaling of solar radiation

Abstract. Initial steps in statistical downscaling involve being able to compare observed data from regional climate models (RCMs). This prediction requires (1) regridding RCM outputs from their native grids and at differing spatial resolutions to a common grid in order to be comparable to observed data and (2) bias correcting RCM data, for example via quantile mapping, for future modeling and analysis. The uncertainty associated with (1) is not always considered for downstream operations in (2). This work examines this uncertainty, which is not often made available to the user of a regridded data product. This analysis is applied to RCM solar radiation data from the NA-CORDEX (North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) data archive and observed data from the National Solar Radiation Database housed at the National Renewable Energy Lab. A case study of the mentioned methods over California is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Using greenhouse gas fluxes to define soil functional types

Soils provide key ecosystem services and directly control ecosystem functions; thus, there is a need to define the reference state of soil functionality. Most common functional classifications of ecosystems are vegetation-centered and neglect soil characteristics and processes. We propose Soil Functional Types (SFTs) as a conceptual approach to represent and describe the functionality of soils based on characteristics of their greenhouse gas (GHG) flux dynamics. We used automated measurements of CO2, CH4 and N2O in a forested area to define SFTs following a simple statistical framework. This study supports the hypothesis that SFTs provide additional insights on the spatial variability of soil functionality beyond information represented by commonly measured soil parameters (e.g., soil moisture, soil temperature, litter biomass). We discuss the implications of this framework at the plot-scale and the potential of this approach at larger scales. This approach is a first step to provide a framework to define SFTs, but a community effort is necessary to harmonize any global classification for soil functionality. A global application of the proposed SFT framework will only be possible if there is a community-wide effort to share data and create a global database of GHG emissions from soils.

Petrakis, Sandra↗
DOE OSTI2014

A calibration procedure to improve global rice yield simulations with EPIC

Crop models are increasingly used to assess impacts of climate change/variability and management practices on productivity and environmental performance of alternative cropping systems. Calibration is an important procedure to improve reliability of model simulations, especially for large area applications. However, global-scale crop model calibration has rarely been exercised due to limited data availability and expensive computing cost. Here we present a simple approach to calibrate Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model for a global implementation of rice. We identify four parameters (potential heat unit – PHU, planting density – PD, harvest index – HI, and biomass energy ratio – BER) and calibrate them regionally to capture the spatial pattern of reported rice yield in 2000. Model performance is assessed by comparing simulated outputs with independent FAO national data. The comparison demonstrates that the global calibration scheme performs satisfactorily in reproducing the spatial pattern of rice yield, particularly in main rice production areas. Spatial agreement increases substantially when more parameters are selected and calibrated, but with varying efficiencies. Among the parameters, PHU and HI exhibit the highest efficiencies in increasing the spatial agreement. Simulations with different calibration strategies generate a pronounced discrepancy of 5–35% in mean yields across latitude bands, and a small to moderate difference in estimated yield variability and yield changing trend for the period of 1981–2000. Present calibration has little effects in improving simulated yield variability and trends at both regional and global levels, suggesting further works are needed to reproduce temporal variability of reported yields. This study highlights the importance of crop models’ calibration, and presents the possibility of a transparent and consistent up scaling approach for global crop simulations given current availability of global databases of weather, soil, crop calendar, fertilizer and irrigation management information, and reported yield.

Crop model↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE EXTENDED VIRGO CLUSTER CATALOG

We present a new catalog of galaxies in the wider region of the Virgo cluster, based on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7. The Extended Virgo Cluster Catalog (EVCC) covers an area of 725 deg{sup 2} or 60.1 Mpc{sup 2}. It is 5.2 times larger than the footprint of the classical Virgo Cluster Catalog (VCC) and reaches out to 3.5 times the virial radius of the Virgo cluster. We selected 1324 spectroscopically targeted galaxies with radial velocities less than 3000 km s{sup –1}. In addition, 265 galaxies that have been overlooked in the SDSS spectroscopic survey but have available redshifts in the NASA Extragalactic Database are also included. Our selection process secured a total of 1589 galaxies, 676 of which are not included in the VCC. The certain and possible cluster members are defined by means of redshift comparison with a cluster infall model. We employed two independent and complementary galaxy classification schemes: the traditional morphological classification based on the visual inspection of optical images and a characterization of galaxies from their spectroscopic features. SDSS u, g, r, i, and z passband photometry of all EVCC galaxies was performed using Source Extractor. We compare the EVCC galaxies with the VCC in terms of morphology, spatial distribution, and luminosity function. The EVCC defines a comprehensive galaxy sample covering a wider range in galaxy density that is significantly different from the inner region of the Virgo cluster. It will be the foundation for forthcoming galaxy evolution studies in the extended Virgo cluster region, complementing ongoing and planned Virgo cluster surveys at various wavelengths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Paths Forward for Nuclear Energy: Using a Nationwide Post-Stratified Hierarchical Model to Facilitate Matching of New Nuclear Technologies to Receptive Host Communities

This project was a collaboration between the University of Oklahoma (OU) and the University of Michigan (UMich). The overall objective of the project was to address a critical problem facing the siting of nuclear facilities, where there is no mechanism for incorporating public attitudes at a state and local level into decision-making. Utilizing recent advances in data modeling over local spatial scales, the research team created a state and county level map of public attitudes towards nuclear energy. Current estimates for public acceptance of nuclear technologies primarily exists on a national level, and sub-national estimates of public opinion about reactor siting, research facilities, transport routes, or storage and disposal facilities are very scarce. Model results from this project provide a systematic basis for technology developers to evaluate public acceptance across alternative siting options as a critical component for weighing potential benefit-cost tradeoffs for alternative paths to deploy new nuclear facilities. The project utilized data from the largest database of nuclear attitudes in the US, coupled with Census and elections-related data as well as data on social vulnerability and proximity to current nuclear facilities. In addition to modeling public support, the team also developed an interactive map to showcase results, using an online tool called Public and Local Attitudes about Nuclear Energy Technologies (PLANET). The tool allows technology developers and stakeholders to interact with the model results and better understand variation in support for nuclear facility siting on a state and county level. The interactive nature of the tool also allows users to analyze results in a targeted way, by comparing levels of support across different states and/or counties as desired.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

WELLS Interactive Application

The Wellbore Exploration and Location Logistic System (WELLS) Interactive Application is an interactive tool to enable easy exploration and visualization of the living national wellbore database (WELLS Database (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/wells_database)). The tool and underlying database were created and are maintained by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), providing visualization of the more than six million public wellbore records from more than 65 authoritative state, federal, and tribal resources. The WELLS Interactive Application serves up wellbore data from oil, gas, underground injection, research, geothermal, geotechnical, groundwater, and other types of wells in a single, standardized, unified system. In addition to the surface location of these wells, the underlying database combines select key attributes for features such as well age, depth, and operating status. The system also provides users with references back to the original sources used in this unified platform. The underlying data can be accessed through the WELLS Database: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/wells_database Additional Information: The WELLS Interactive Application (formerly titled CO2-Locate) enables visualization and access to the public wellbore records through an intuitive web-based mapping tool. The WELLS Interactive Application was designed to help users visualize, query, analyze, and download wellbore records. Public wellbore points are included as a layer in the Map page, called Public Wells. Additionally, a multivariate hexagon grid summarizing well density from proprietary well data, called Well Density, is included to identify data gaps between the public and proprietary well data. Filtering functionalities in the tool allow these two layers to be spatially filtered by state, county, or basin as well as by status, type, true vertical depth, and spud year. The WELLS Interactive Application also contains a Near Me tool can be used to search and explore wellbore data within a user-defined distance of a specified location on the map, which can also be downloaded. The Query tool allows users to query the selected or filtered wells in the Public Wells layer and export the data. For additional information on these tool functionalities, see the help documentation on the About page of the tool. Notes for Consideration: The Well Density layer provided in this application is derived from proprietary wellbore data, the records of which do not always contain values for key features (status, type, true vertical depth, or spud year). Therefore, data might not be available when layers are queried for all filter combinations. Additionally, visualizing layers and applying filters may take additional time to load (i.e., draw on the map) due to the large size of the data.

ccs↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗