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At least 361 records · Page 20

Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations

The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the global mean during the past few decades. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) has been identified as being a large contributor to the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. This particular feedback arises from the vertically non-uniform warming of the troposphere, which in the Arctic emerges as strong near-surface and muted free-tropospheric warming. Stable stratification and meridional energy transport are two characteristic processes that are evoked as causes for this vertical warming structure. Our aim is to constrain these governing processes by making use of detailed observations in combination with the large climate model ensemble of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We build on the result that CMIP6 models show a large spread in AA and Arctic LRF, which are positively correlated for the historical period of 1951–2014. Thus, we present process-oriented constraints by linking characteristics of the current climate to historical climate simulations. In particular, we compare a large consortium of present-day observations to co-located model data from subsets that show a weak and strong simulated AA and Arctic LRF in the past. Our analyses suggest that the vertical temperature structure of the Arctic boundary layer is more realistically depicted in climate models with weak (w) AA and Arctic LRF (CMIP6/w) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/w models show stronger inversions in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter and over sea ice, which is more consistent with the observations. These results are based on observations from the year-long Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic, long-term measurements at the Utqiagvik site in Alaska, USA, and dropsonde temperature profiling from aircraft campaigns in the Fram Strait. In addition, the atmospheric energy transport from lower latitudes that can further mediate the warming structure in the free troposphere is more realistically represented by CMIP6/w models. In particular, CMIP6/w models systemically simulate a weaker Arctic atmospheric energy transport convergence in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter, which is more consistent with fifth generation reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). We further show a positive relationship between the magnitude of the present-day transport convergence and the strength of past AA. With respect to the Arctic LRF, we find links between the changes in transport pathways that drive vertical warming structures and local differences in the LRF. This highlights the mediating influence of advection on the Arctic LRF and motivates deeper studies to explicitly link spatial patterns of Arctic feedbacks to changes in the large-scale circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Alternative Representations of Convective Processes in the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

The gap in explicit resolution of phenomena between global climate models and cloud resolving models is shrinking at a steady pace with global integrations of several km in resolution now practical for at least some time scales. In moving toward finer resolution the long standing problem of convective parameterization is being examined along with the assumption of convective quasi-equilibrium and how this can be reconciled with the stochastic and intermittent nature of convection. In this context we examine the nature of parameterized convection in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Our analysis uses both coarse (2.5 degree) and fine scale 0.25 degree spatial resolution integrations. Two basic formulations are compared: the default option is the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme which invokes a sequence of linearly entraining plumes and quasi-equilibrium closure. An optional modification of this method (the "Stochastic Tokioka" constraint) places a random lower limit on plume entrainment. An alternative representation is the Kain-Fritsch parameterization which was originally developed for mesoscale numerical modeling strategies. Here entrainment is determined by a crude buoyancy sorting approach that allows the plume spectrum to be more responsive to ambient vertical stratification of moisture. Diagnostics of the model behavior are referenced to recent observational evidence of continuous phase transition behavior. In particular we examine the relationship between column water vapor and probablility of convective presence and intensity. Sensitivity of the statistics of convective behavior to parcel mixing/entrainment formulations and parcel initial thermodynamics are considered. Observational statistics from A-Train and TRMM sensors provide validation of the model integrations.

Robertson, Franklin↗

Three-dimensional computations of transverse hydrogen jet combustion in a supersonic airstream

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code is being developed to compute the mixing and combustion of hydrogen fuel in the turbulent flow fields of supersonic combustion ramjets (scramjet). The code solves the three-dimensional Reynolds time-averaged complete Navier-Stokes equations including transport equations for a four species, two reaction, global finite rate chemistry model. The code was applied to the case of transverse injection of hydrogen from a sonic circular orifice into a supersonic airstream. The equations were numerically integrated using MacCormack's explicit method, and the algebraic eddy viscosity model of Baldwin-Lomax was used to model the turbulence. In the species transport and energy equations, diffusion coefficients based on Fick's Law and an assumption of unit Lewis number were applied. Computed features of the three-dimensional flow field are depicted by static pressure, static temperature, mass fraction of species, and velocity vectors. For engineering interest, mixing and combustion parameters were examined to assess the effect of injector diameter, injected fuel pressure, fuel-air ratio, and spacing of fuel injectors. The objective of the present paper is to demonstrate the capability of the present three-dimensional spatially elliptic, CFD code for turbulent, reacting flow. Application of the code to specific supersonic combustion configurations is planned.

Uenishi, K.↗

Mesoscale monitoring of the soil freeze/thaw boundary from orbital microwave radiometry

The fundamental objectives are to test the feasibility of delineating the lateral boundary between frozen and thawed condition in the surface layer of soil from orbital microwave radiometry and secondly to examine the sensitivity of general circulation models to an explicit parameterization of the boundary condition. Physical models were developed to relate emissivity to scene properties and a simulation package was developed to predict brightness temperature as a function of emissivity and physical temperature in order to address issues of heterogeneity, scaling, and scene dynamics. Radiative transfer models were develped for both bare soil surfaces and those obscured by an intervening layer of vegetation or snow. These models relate the emissivity to the physical properties of the soil and to those of the snow or vegetation cover. A SMMR simulation package was developed to evaluate the adequacy of the emission models and the limiting effects of scaling for realistic scenarios incorporating spatially heterogeneous scenes with dynamic moisture and temperature gradients at the pixel scale.

Ulaby, Fawwaz T.↗

Sensitivity analysis for the dynamic response of thermoviscoplastic shells of revolution

A computational procedure is presented for evaluating the sensitivity coefficients of the dynamic axisymmetric, fully-coupled, thermoviscoplastic response of shells of revolution. The analytical formulation is based on Reissner's large deformation shell theory with the effects of large-strain, transverse shear deformation, rotatory inertia and moments turning around the normal to the middle surface included. The material model is chosen to be viscoplasticity with strain hardening and thermal hardening, and an associated flow rule is used with a von Mises effective stress. A mixed formulation is used for the shell equations with the fundamental unknowns consisting of six stress resultants, three generalized displacements and three velocity components. The energy-balance equation is solved using a Galerkin procedure, with the temperature as the fundamental unknown. Spatial discretization is performed in one dimension (meridional direction) for the momentum and constitutive equations of the shell, and in two dimensions (meridional and thickness directions) for the energy-balance equation. The temporal integration is performed by using an explicit central difference scheme (leap-frog method) for the momentum equation; a predictor-corrector version of the trapezoidal rule is used for the energy-balance equation; and an explicit scheme consistent with the central difference method is used to integrate the constitutive equations. The sensitivity coefficients are evaluated by using a direct differentiation approach. Numerical results are presented for a spherical cap subjected to step loading.

Kulkarni, Makarand↗

DG-IMEX method for a two-moment model for radiation transport in the $\mathscr{O}$($v$/$c$) limit

Here, we consider neutral particle systems described by moments of a phase-space density and propose a realizability-preserving numerical method to evolve a spectral two-moment model for particles interacting with a background fluid moving with nonrelativistic velocities. The system of nonlinear moment equations, with special relativistic corrections to $\mathscr{O}$($v$/$c$), expresses a balance between phase-space advection and collisions and includes velocity-dependent terms that account for spatial advection, Doppler shift, and angular aberration. The model is conservative for the correct $\mathscr{O}$($v$/$c$) Eulerian-frame number density and is consistent, to $\mathscr{O}$($v$/$c$), with Eulerian-frame energy and momentum conservation. This model is closely related to the one promoted by Lowrie et al. and similar to models currently used to study transport phenomena in large-scale simulations of astrophysical environments. The proposed numerical method is designed to preserve moment realizability, which guarantees that the moments correspond to a nonnegative phase-space density. The realizability-preserving scheme consists of the following key components: (i) a strong stability-preserving implicit-explicit (IMEX) time-integration method; (ii) a discontinuous Galerkin (DG) phase-space discretization with carefully constructed numerical uxes; (iii) a realizability-preserving implicit collision update; and(iv) a realizability-enforcing limiter. In time integration, nonlinearity of the moment model necessitates solution of nonlinear equations, which we formulate as fixed-point problems and solve with tailored iterative solvers that preserve moment realizability with guaranteed global convergence. We also analyze the simultaneous Eulerian-frame number and energy conservation properties of the semi-discrete DG scheme and propose a "spectral redistribution" scheme that promotes Eulerian-frame energy conservation. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of this DG-IMEX method and investigate its Eulerian-frame energy conservation properties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of Particle-Laden Temporal Mixing Layers

High-fidelity models of plume-regolith interaction are difficult to develop because of the widely disparate flow conditions that exist in this process. The gas in the core of a rocket plume can often be modeled as a time-dependent, high-temperature, turbulent, reacting continuum flow. However, due to the vacuum conditions on the lunar surface, the mean molecular path in the outer parts of the plume is too long for the continuum assumption to remain valid. Molecular methods are better suited to model this region of the flow. Finally, granular and multiphase flow models must be employed to describe the dust and debris that are displaced from the surface, as well as how a crater is formed in the regolith. At present, standard commercial CFD (computational fluid dynamics) software is not capable of coupling each of these flow regimes to provide an accurate representation of this flow process, necessitating the development of custom software. This software solves the fluid-flow-governing equations in an Eulerian framework, coupled with the particle transport equations that are solved in a Lagrangian framework. It uses a fourth-order explicit Runge-Kutta scheme for temporal integration, an eighth-order central finite differencing scheme for spatial discretization. The non-linear terms in the governing equations are recast in cubic skew symmetric form to reduce aliasing error. The second derivative viscous terms are computed using eighth-order narrow stencils that provide better diffusion for the highest resolved wave numbers. A fourth-order Lagrange interpolation procedure is used to obtain gas-phase variable values at the particle locations.

Bellan, Josette↗

Solutions of the Taylor-Green Vortex Problem Using High-Resolution Explicit Finite Difference Methods

A computational fluid dynamics code that solves the compressible Navier-Stokes equations was applied to the Taylor-Green vortex problem to examine the code s ability to accurately simulate the vortex decay and subsequent turbulence. The code, WRLES (Wave Resolving Large-Eddy Simulation), uses explicit central-differencing to compute the spatial derivatives and explicit Low Dispersion Runge-Kutta methods for the temporal discretization. The flow was first studied and characterized using Bogey & Bailley s 13-point dispersion relation preserving (DRP) scheme. The kinetic energy dissipation rate, computed both directly and from the enstrophy field, vorticity contours, and the energy spectra are examined. Results are in excellent agreement with a reference solution obtained using a spectral method and provide insight into computations of turbulent flows. In addition the following studies were performed: a comparison of 4th-, 8th-, 12th- and DRP spatial differencing schemes, the effect of the solution filtering on the results, the effect of large-eddy simulation sub-grid scale models, and the effect of high-order discretization of the viscous terms.

DeBonis, James R.↗

Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the US in Conventional and Multiscale Modeling Framework Configurations of E3SMv1

Organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute a significant amount of precipitation in the Central and Eastern US during spring and summer, which impacts the availability of freshwater and flooding events. However, current global Earth system models cannot capture MCSs well and misrepresent the statistics of precipitation in the region. In this study, we investigate the representation of MCSs in three configurations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) by tracking individual storms based on outgoing longwave radiation using a new application of TempestExtremes. Our results indicate that conventional parameterizations of convection, implemented in both low (LR; ~150 km) and high (HR; ~25 km) resolution configurations, fail to capture almost all MCS-like events, in-part because they underestimate high-level cloud ice associated with deep convection. On the other hand, the multiscale modeling framework (MMF; cloud-resolving models embedded in each grid-column of ~150 km resolution E3SMv1) configuration represents MCSs and their annual cycle better. Nevertheless, relative to observations, the E3SMv1-MMF spatial distribution of MCSs and associated precipitation is shifted eastward, and the diurnal timing is lagged. A comparison between the large-scale environment in E3SMv1-MMF and ERA5 reanalysis suggests that the biases during the summer in E3SMv1-MMF are associated with biases in low-level humidity and meridional moisture transport within the low-level jet. The fact that conventional parameterizations of convection, even with high-resolution, cannot capture MCSs over the US suggests that methods with explicit representation of kilometer-scale convective organization, such as the MMF, may be necessary for improving the simulation of these convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Growth instabilities shape morphology and genetic diversity of microbial colonies

Abstract Cellular populations assume an incredible variety of shapes ranging from circular molds to irregular tumors. While we understand many of the mechanisms responsible for these spatial patterns, little is known about how the shape of a population influences its ecology and evolution. Here, we investigate this relationship in the context of microbial colonies grown on hard agar plates. This a well-studied system that exhibits a transition from smooth circular disks to more irregular and rugged shapes as either the nutrient concentration or cellular motility is decreased. Starting from a mechanistic model of colony growth, we identify two dimensionless quantities that determine how morphology and genetic diversity of the population depend on the model parameters. Our simulations further reveal that population dynamics cannot be accurately described by the commonly-used surface growth models. Instead, one has to explicitly account for the emergent growth instabilities and demographic fluctuations. Overall, our work links together environmental conditions, colony morphology, and evolution. This link is essential for a rational design of concrete, biophysical perturbations to steer evolution in the desired direction.

Golden, Alexander↗

Mitigating drought mortality by incorporating topography into variable forest thinning strategies

Abstract Drought-induced productivity reductions and tree mortality have been increasing in recent decades in forests around the globe. Developing adaptation strategies hinges on an adequate understanding of the mechanisms governing the drought vulnerability of forest stands. Prescribed reduction in stand density has been used as a management tool to reduce water stress and wildfire risk, but the processes that modulate fine-scale variations in plant water supply and water demand are largely missing in ecosystem models. We used an ecohydrological model that couples plant hydraulics with groundwater hydrology to examine how within-stand variations in tree spatial arrangements and topography might mitigate forest vulnerability to drought at individual-tree and stand scales. Our results demonstrated thinning generally ameliorated plant hydraulic stress and improved carbon and water fluxes of the remaining trees, although the effectiveness varied by climate and topography. Variable thinning that adjusted thinning intensity based on topography-mediated water availability achieved higher stand productivity and lower mortality risk, compared to evenly-spaced thinning at comparable intensities. The results from numerical experiments provided mechanistic evidence that topography mediates the effectiveness of thinning and highlighted the need for an explicit consideration of within-stand heterogeneity in trees and abiotic environments when designing forest thinning to mitigate drought impacts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Stable Machine‐Learning Parameterization of Subgrid Processes in a Comprehensive Atmospheric Model Learned From Embedded Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Modern climate projections often suffer from inadequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational limitations, resulting in inaccurate representations of sub-grid processes. A promising technique to address this is the multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which embeds a kilometer-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each atmospheric column of a host climate model to replace traditional convection and cloud parameterizations. Machine learning offers a unique opportunity to make MMF more accessible by emulating the embedded CRM and reducing its substantial computational cost. Although many studies have demonstrated proof-of-concept success of achieving stable hybrid simulations, it remains a challenge to achieve near operational-level success with real geography and comprehensive variable emulation that includes, for example, explicit cloud condensate coupling. In this study, we present a stable hybrid model capable of integrating for at least 5 years with near operational-level complexity, including coarse-grid geography, seasonality, explicit cloud condensate and wind predictions, and land coupling. Our model demonstrates skillful online performance, achieving a 5-year zonal mean tropospheric temperature bias within 2 K, water vapor bias within 1 g/kg, and a precipitation root mean square error of 0.96 mm/day. Key factors contributing to our online performance include an expressive U-Net architecture and physical thermodynamic constraints for microphysics. With microphysical constraints mitigating unrealistic cloud formation, our work is the first to demonstrate realistic multi-year cloud condensate climatology under the MMF framework. Despite these advances, online diagnostics reveal persistent biases in certain regions, highlighting the need for innovative strategies to further optimize online performance.

Hu, Zeyuan [NVIDIA Corporation, Santa Clara, CA (U↗

Linear systematics mitigation in galaxy clustering in the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Data

ABSTRACT We implement a linear model for mitigating the effect of observing conditions and other sources of contamination in galaxy clustering analyses. Our treatment improves upon the fiducial systematics treatment of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 (Y1) cosmology analysis in four crucial ways. Specifically, our treatment (1) does not require decisions as to which observable systematics are significant and which are not, allowing for the possibility of multiple maps adding coherently to give rise to significant bias even if no single map leads to a significant bias by itself, (2) characterizes both the statistical and systematic uncertainty in our mitigation procedure, allowing us to propagate said uncertainties into the reported cosmological constraints, (3) explicitly exploits the full spatial structure of the galaxy density field to differentiate between cosmology-sourced and systematics-sourced fluctuations within the galaxy density field, and (4) is fully automated, and can therefore be trivially applied to any data set. The updated correlation function for the DES Y1 redMaGiC catalogue minimally impacts the cosmological posteriors from that analysis. Encouragingly, our analysis does improve the goodness-of-fit statistic of the DES Y1 3 × 2pt data set (Δχ2 = −6.5 with no additional parameters). This improvement is due in nearly equal parts to both the change in the correlation function and the added statistical and systematic uncertainties associated with our method. We expect the difference in mitigation techniques to become more important in future work as the size of cosmological data sets grows.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Energy considerations in computational aeroacoustics

A finite-volume multistage time-stepping Euler code is used to investigate the use of CFD algorithms for the direct calculation of acoustics. The 2D compressible inviscid flow about an accelerating or decelerating circular cylinder is used as a model problem. The time evolution of the energy transfer from the cylinder to the fluid, as the cylinder is moved from rest to some nonnegligible velocity, is clearly seen. By examining the temporal and spatial characteristics of the numerical solution, a distinction can be made between the propagating acoustic energy, the convecting energy associated with the entropy change in the fluid, and the energy contained in the local aerodynamic field. Systematic variation of the cylinder acceleration shows that the radiated acoustic energy depends strongly upon the rate of acceleration or deceleration. The computational grid has a large effect on the ratio of acoustic energy to nonphysical entropy associated energy, while the role of the explicit artificial viscosity seems to be of second order. The entropy term was nearly negligible in all cases the cylinder was started slowly.

Brentner, Kenneth S.↗

Multistage Schemes with Multigrid for Euler and Navier-Strokes Equations: Components and Analysis

A class of explicit multistage time-stepping schemes with centered spatial differencing and multigrids are considered for the compressible Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. These schemes are the basis for a family of computer programs (flow codes with multigrid (FLOMG) series) currently used to solve a wide range of fluid dynamics problems, including internal and external flows. In this paper, the components of these multistage time-stepping schemes are defined, discussed, and in many cases analyzed to provide additional insight into their behavior. Special emphasis is given to numerical dissipation, stability of Runge-Kutta schemes, and the convergence acceleration techniques of multigrid and implicit residual smoothing. Both the Baldwin and Lomax algebraic equilibrium model and the Johnson and King one-half equation nonequilibrium model are used to establish turbulence closure. Implementation of these models is described.

Swanson, R. C.↗

Space Radiation Transport Code Development: 3DHZETRN

The space radiation transport code, HZETRN, has been used extensively for research, vehicle design optimization, risk analysis, and related applications. One of the simplifying features of the HZETRN transport formalism is the straight-ahead approximation, wherein all particles are assumed to travel along a common axis. This reduces the governing equation to one spatial dimension allowing enormous simplification and highly efficient computational procedures to be implemented. Despite the physical simplifications, the HZETRN code is widely used for space applications and has been found to agree well with fully 3D Monte Carlo simulations in many circumstances. Recent work has focused on the development of 3D transport corrections for neutrons and light ions (Z < 2) for which the straight-ahead approximation is known to be less accurate. Within the development of 3D corrections, well-defined convergence criteria have been considered, allowing approximation errors at each stage in model development to be quantified. The present level of development assumes the neutron cross sections have an isotropic component treated within N explicit angular directions and a forward component represented by the straight-ahead approximation. The N = 1 solution refers to the straight-ahead treatment, while N = 2 represents the bi-directional model in current use for engineering design. The figure below shows neutrons, protons, and alphas for various values of N at locations in an aluminum sphere exposed to a solar particle event (SPE) spectrum. The neutron fluence converges quickly in simple geometry with N > 14 directions. The improved code, 3DHZETRN, transports neutrons, light ions, and heavy ions under space-like boundary conditions through general geometry while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. A brief overview of the 3D transport formalism for neutrons and light ions is given, and extensive benchmarking results with the Monte Carlo codes Geant4, FLUKA, and PHITS are provided for a variety of boundary conditions and geometries. Improvements provided by the 3D corrections are made clear in the comparisons. Developments needed to connect 3DHZETRN to vehicle design and optimization studies will be discussed. Future theoretical development will relax the forward plus isotropic interaction assumption to more general angular dependence.

Wilson, John W.↗

Convective Momentum Transport and Its Impact on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in E3SM‐MMF

Abstract Convective momentum transport (CMT) is the process of vertical redistribution of horizontal momentum by small‐scale turbulent flows from moist convection. Traditional general circulation models (GCMs) and their multiscale modeling framework (MMF) versions poorly represent CMT due to insufficient information of subgrid‐scale flows at each GCM grid. Here the explicit scalar momentum transport (ESMT) scheme for representing CMT is implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Multiscale Modeling Framework (E3SM‐MMF) with embedded 2‐D cloud‐resolving models (CRMs), and verified against E3SM‐MMF simulations with 3‐D CRMs and observations. The results show that representing CMT by ESMT helps reduce climatological mean precipitation model bias over the western Pacific and the ITCZ regions, which is attributed to the weakened mean easterlies over the Pacific. Also, CMT from simulations with 2‐D and 3‐D CRMs impose a similar impact on Kelvin waves by reducing their variability and slowing down their phase speed, but opposite impacts on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) variability. The ESMT scheme readily captures the climatological mean spatial patterns of the zonal and meridional components of CMT and their variability across multiple time scales, but shows some differences in estimating its magnitude. CMT mainly affects the MJO by decelerating its winds in the free troposphere, but accelerates its near‐surface winds. This study serves as a prototype for implementing CMT scheme in the MMF simulations, highlighting its crucial role in reducing model bias in mean state and spatiotemporal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

A multi-scale modeling system with unified physics has been developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The system consists of an MMF, the coupled NASA Goddard finite-volume GCM (fvGCM) and Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE, a CRM); the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the stand alone GCE. These models can share the same microphysical schemes, radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models that have been developed, improved and tested for different environments. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on the impact of the aerosol on deep precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications). We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems. In addition, high - resolution (spatial. 2km, and temporal, I minute) visualization showing the model results will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗